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Ringer is a fair comparison. Ballard in terms of body type, but Stacy is a much more decisive runner than Ballard without the penchant for negative plays. Stacy is also better in the open field. Stacy is stronger and tougher than Scott.
This is a bad comparison. 1st of all Pinner was a converted FB, a north south runner with some power but little wiggle or speed. He was injured so did not participate in the combine and was limited in pro day. Several services like CBS list him as an estimated 4.68 40. It is difficult to find information about this, but Pinner was not close to the outstanding numbers that Stacy has put up at the combine.
Stacy on the other hand had 4.55 40 27 bench reps (Doug Martin 28 last season) tied with Ahmad Bradshaw for 7th overall in 3 cone since 2006.
I think that is a lot closer than Pinner anyways. http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Tashard&l=Choice&i=7898
I don't think Pinner should be remembered as a "beast" at UK. He had a nice senior season, for a very average team. Other than that he was forgettable. Those same scouts that get paid good money miss on a lot players as well. To think Chris Thompson has a better shot at fantasy production is a stretch. Have you seen Morris run? Dudes a beast who squats 1000 pounds.
That's fine, but for the record, the point I was driving at with Pinner is he was being crowned the starter immediately because of the lack of better talent in Detroit. In the couple of rookie drafts I did in 2003, he went in the first round. I wasn't saying Stacy and Pinner are the exact same RB. Very similar measuarbles in height:weight and speed though.
As I have said before in other threads, we are just talking probabilities, which are fine if one knows absolutely nothing else about a player except that he was taken in a certain round. So, probabilities really don't mean that much when you are looking at individual players, their background story, viewing their highlight/game tapes and the unique team context they find themselves in.
Point #3 is the big one. Everyone remembers the first two, no one remembers the third. It's the same reason people actively invest instead of just buying index funds- they think they have a special ability to beat the market, and selective recall and survivorship bias reinforce this belief. In the long run, though, the market remains undefeated. Some 5th round RB is going to turn into a stud. I just have no way to predict which one ahead of time, so I'll focus on rostering whoever comes cheapest.
Don't draft stacy in the late 1st/early second, but drafting 4th round WR's(Boyce/Harper) in the 1st/2nd round is okay? They have a better hit rate?
the same argument can be said about Alfred morris in the 6th round, Terell davis in the 6th round, marques colston in the 7th round, arian foster Undrafted,Tom Brady in the 6th round. I can go on and on.. Are you tellin me that always the good players get drafted first????
wow bro. you killed him on that one.. I have to agree with you some of them rankings esp no hopkins and Austin 15 bell unranked stacy unranked patterson 18 LOL laughable at best...... anyways I can see the haterade coming out of the pours of the Zac stacy haters. Stacy will be a stud and a mirror of doug martin.... He is a special backDon't draft stacy in the late 1st/early second, but drafting 4th round WR's(Boyce/Harper) in the 1st/2nd round is okay? They have a better hit rate?
Zac Stacy: 5-9, 216 pounds, 3,143 yards, 5.4 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.70 three-cone drill, 4.17 short shuttle, 27 reps
Doug Martin : 5-9, 215 pounds, 3,431 yards, 5.6 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.79 three-cone drill, 4.16 short shuttle, 28 reps
You loved Martin, but Stacy is just a serviceable talent
It must be your "scouting skills" that reflects this.
The same scouting skills that had Tavon Austin #15, Cordarrelle Patterson #18, Leveon Bell unranked, Zac Stacy unranked, DeAndre Hopkins unranked.
But yet had Markus Wheaton #1, Marcus Davis #7
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=673126&hl=
Im rostering with value and opportunity. Opportunity is half the battle in fantasy football... Plenty of times very talented players/backs etc get buried on depth charts... All the late round draft picks who have become studs all had great opportunity to succeed. That is the key. Stacy is playing in a stable of backs that include Pead who is in his 2nd year and was terrible as a rook already suspended 1 game, and Darryl richardson who is a sub 200 pound back who is nothing special and nothing more then a 3rd down/change of pace back. Stacy is the workhorse back on the team and pead/richardson will fight for scraps... Peep game
Bashing a guy for rookie rankings made several months before the combine seems misguided to me. I'd like to see what your ranking looked like at that time. I respect EBF for having the guts to put his rankings out that early.
most of the owners who hit on the few late round/undrafted relevant FF players will admit it was pretty much blind luck.
Look who's talking. Didn't you have Cobi Hamilton and Marquess Wilson in your top 10? You should understand as well as anyone that preliminary rankings are just that. Preliminary.tdmills said:Don't draft stacy in the late 1st/early second, but drafting 4th round WR's(Boyce/Harper) in the 1st/2nd round is okay? They have a better hit rate?EBF said:
Zac Stacy: 5-9, 216 pounds, 3,143 yards, 5.4 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.70 three-cone drill, 4.17 short shuttle, 27 repsDoug Martin : 5-9, 215 pounds, 3,431 yards, 5.6 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.79 three-cone drill, 4.16 short shuttle, 28 repsYou loved Martin, but Stacy is just a serviceable talentIt must be your "scouting skills" that reflects this.The same scouting skills that had Tavon Austin #15, Cordarrelle Patterson #18, Leveon Bell unranked, Zac Stacy unranked, DeAndre Hopkins unranked.But yet had Markus Wheaton #1, Marcus Davis #7
Is there such a thing in dynasty fantasy football?
Yup, Morris was a FA pickup in most leagues and people weren't tooting his horn until after preseason started. Unless people had really deep rookie drafts he wasn't drafted in most leagues during the apr - jun drafts.
Yes, there is an objective standpoint when it comes to dynasty football. For starters, draft position is a pretty objective measurement. If one draft has eleven skill position players drafted in the first round, and another draft has five, then we have objective data saying the first draft was better.
This is my pre-combine rankings.Shanahanigans said:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=676867#entry15296264Look who's talking. Didn't you have Cobi Hamilton and Marquess Wilson in your top 10? You should understand as well as anyone that preliminary rankings are just that. Preliminary.tdmills said:Don't draft stacy in the late 1st/early second, but drafting 4th round WR's(Boyce/Harper) in the 1st/2nd round is okay? They have a better hit rate?EBF said:
Zac Stacy: 5-9, 216 pounds, 3,143 yards, 5.4 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.70 three-cone drill, 4.17 short shuttle, 27 repsDoug Martin : 5-9, 215 pounds, 3,431 yards, 5.6 YPC, 4.55 40-yard dash, 6.79 three-cone drill, 4.16 short shuttle, 28 repsYou loved Martin, but Stacy is just a serviceable talentIt must be your "scouting skills" that reflects this.The same scouting skills that had Tavon Austin #15, Cordarrelle Patterson #18, Leveon Bell unranked, Zac Stacy unranked, DeAndre Hopkins unranked.But yet had Markus Wheaton #1, Marcus Davis #7
If you don't understand the difference between a 1st round pick like Martin and a 5th round pick like Stacy, it's probably not worth the troubling of trying to explain it.
I could just as easily point towards my January 2012 rankings to show that my scouting can be pretty good. My goal isn't to have the best January rankings though. My leagues don't draft in January. My goal is to have the best board possible by the time my drafts roll around in April-May. Some years there's going to be a lot of change during the process (like this year). Some years there won't (like last year).
Not surprised that someone as pretentious as you thinks when someone disagrees it's a "personal problem", it couldn't be a flaw in logic...could it?
Funny, if you had done a Top 20 like EBF, you too would have had Stacy unranked. Plus, your rankings come 7 weeks later than EBF's, which gave you much more time to see how the NFL was evaluating the talent.
You answered your own question. There's a huge difference between a 1st round pick and a 5th round pick. Night and day.
The NFL doesn't say much before the combine, but in the end I think you're just going to disagree with me. Feel free to read my comment on Stacy though
so now we're not only expecting him to compete, we're expecting this 5th round phenom to win the starting gig easily.
That's some awesome selective quoting. Seems to miss a couple huge IFs. I'm glad some all-Pro talents like Pead and Richardson are finally getting recognized for their elite numbers. There's no way they get passed over by a rookie.
Yes, I'm sure no new scouting news came out from late December to early February.
Indeed, talk about taking a quote out of context, and it was not like there wasn't enough space for the 10 words before it - below is the original unedited sentence:
Has it not happened before, why is this blasphemy? Has Pead and Richardson really wow'd the hell out of people?!
A fair question but RBs simply don't tend to be coveted the way some of the other positions are in today's game, shelf life is short and there is alot of options out there for that one or two spots you have on the field. As an example, Shanahan is famous for this. You watch the draft nowadays for fantasy purposes seems like all the actions is on day 2, day one has gone to QBs, CBs, OTs and DEs
I'll try to explain where I'm at with Stacy and maybe this jives with some of his supporters and maybe not.
Good post.
