What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Stock Thread (25 Viewers)

I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?

 
Listen tough guys, I get Walgreens at a 10% discount. I've ch for a few months and now want to put 50% into something else.
So- I'm pretty sure that you aren't serious, and quite confident that whatever "advice" was given to you here would be ignored.

But in the spirit of - maybe this will help someone else - here goes.

Why not look into Motif Investing?

You can design your own "ETF" based on ideas and you can weight the basket of stocks to your desires. Granted they probably don't have marijuana etf...but there are many other Motif Ideas. You can buy a 30 stock basket weighted to your desired exposure for $10. You can open an account for $250.

http://www.motifinvesting.com/

 
I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?
Here's a LT topping chart. I have another LT indicator that is flashing a top too. But honestly the charts in the present moment are all pretty bullish. We've been adding positions with very few sells as of late. Are you still doing the monthly rotation?

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/f50aa0a5-ac6c-4eaa-8f62-0d7cddcf1e72

 
I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?
Here's a LT topping chart. I have another LT indicator that is flashing a top too. But honestly the charts in the present moment are all pretty bullish. We've been adding positions with very few sells as of late. Are you still doing the monthly rotation?

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/f50aa0a5-ac6c-4eaa-8f62-0d7cddcf1e72
I am, last two months were both winners :thumbup:

I screwed up this month though :kicksrock: Sold IVV at 198.03 and bought ADRE at $39.49 today.

I shifted a little extra into it too, just bc I feel this would be a little safer should a rapid fall take place. The charts on your site from 2007-2009 kinda validate that thought process for me.

 
I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?
I am thinking the same thing. I dont think the economy as a whole correlates to what is going on in the stock market. I'm being very cautious.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
But in the spirit of - maybe this will help someone else - here goes.

Why not look into Motif Investing?

You can design your own "ETF" based on ideas and you can weight the basket of stocks to your desires. Granted they probably don't have marijuana etf...but there are many other Motif Ideas. You can buy a 30 stock basket weighted to your desired exposure for $10. You can open an account for $250.

http://www.motifinvesting.com/
Interesting....

 
I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?
Here's a LT topping chart. I have another LT indicator that is flashing a top too. But honestly the charts in the present moment are all pretty bullish. We've been adding positions with very few sells as of late. Are you still doing the monthly rotation?

http://www.screencast.com/users/Steelhedge/folders/Default/media/f50aa0a5-ac6c-4eaa-8f62-0d7cddcf1e72
I am, last two months were both winners :thumbup:

I screwed up this month though :kicksrock: Sold IVV at 198.03 and bought ADRE at $39.49 today.

I shifted a little extra into it too, just bc I feel this would be a little safer should a rapid fall take place. The charts on your site from 2007-2009 kinda validate that thought process for me.
Probably worked out better than closing $IVV and opening $ADRE yesterday. No need to kick yourself. It would probably take a couple of months for the Monthly Rotation Strategy to rollover to the bearish side and move to $IEF (Treasury Bonds) even if we were topping. Historically when the market turns bearish - longs have multiple opportunities to exit near the highs. We'd need a flock of black swans to crash all at once for that not to occur in this kind of market.

 
I was losing my ### on XONE, now I'm at a bearable loss given today's action. But it's giving a lot of it back...as I type this. MF.
Looks like the whole group reversed around 12:30. XONE still up 12%, though.PS, For anyone interested, I updated the stock contest rankings for the 1st half.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=702284&page=6#entry16934038
Yeah, :kicksrock: Still a good day though. My IGR has been on a nice run too.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
So it seems the 3d craziness may have been sparked by nothing more than takeover speculation when DDD said they could not attend an investor conference they had not yet even confirmed. I assume the later cooling off was timed to an email explaining it was scheduling issues. Sheesh.

 
I know siff generally warns against bucking a trend but i am still sitting in 1/2 cash. I am going to wait this one out.

 
I feel like the market is shooting a gigantic nut right now and we are nearing a danger point, but I know basically nothing and am usually wrong on this stuff. I'm sure most charts should look bullish, but the run in market appears well over done to me when looking at some tech companies whose business model and fundamentals I understand pretty clearly.

Curious if anyone feels this way?
I've been waiting for the 20% decline for a bit now. Everything cannot be "bullish" and something needs to happen. I've been waiting for a dip to invest my 2014 Roth fund. Watching and listening.

I learn each time I sit at the blackjack table. And, if I followed my philosophy each time, I'd always walk away a winner. That philosophy is, "walk away when you win money." Even if it is $50 in the first 30 minutes (small bets of $5 or so), leave because its more money than you came in with. Last time I played, I would have walked away with >$200 but I chose to stay. This stock market, I'm sitting out for now and will play when the numbers go down... which they will... just when will that happen?

 
So it seems the 3d craziness may have been sparked by nothing more than takeover speculation when DDD said they could not attend an investor conference they had not yet even confirmed. I assume the later cooling off was timed to an email explaining it was scheduling issues. Sheesh.
I read that too. However the speculation is the "scheduling issue" is because they will be bought out.

 
Interesting story here...

Sports camera maker GoPro recently announced plans for an IPO, which provided key details for component maker Ambarella (NASDAQ: AMBA ) . More specifically, Ambarella is vital to GoPro's operations, as it makes semiconductors found in every single GoPro camera.

Key GoPro component

A quick glance through GoPro's prospectus shows that Ambarella is a vital contributor. Listed in the company's risk factors is, "We incorporate video compression and image processing semiconductors from one provider into all of our cameras." GoPro makes it known that there is no alternative supplier.

An upcoming GoPro IPO will put shares of Ambarella into the spotlight, which could be a great catalyst to boost shares that are currently down over 20% in the last year. In the last month, shares have risen 8%, but are down from their highs, seen around the time the prospectus was released.

The company helps companies with wearable sports cameras, automotive aftermarket cameras, and IP security cameras. Ambarella has seen some of its growth from sports cameras fall, as GoPro experienced declining sales in its most recent quarter.

Growth beyond GoPro

Ambarella is vital to GoPro and its cameras, but GoPro isn't as important to Ambarella and its financials. Lately, Ambarella has seen stronger growth in its IP security camera business. That growth could rocket further, with tech giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ:GOOGL ) getting involved.

Reports indicate Google has been considering acquiring Dropcam, a maker of home security cameras. Dropcam also uses Ambarella for its cameras, which retail for approximately $150 each. The thought process is, Google wants Dropcam to integrate with its newly acquired Nest brand. Google spent $3.2 billion to acquire Nest, maker of smart thermostats and smoke detectors. It seems Google wants a bigger piece of the growing connected home market. Apple is also a possible acquirer of Dropcam.

An acquisition of Dropcam by a tech giant would be beneficial for Ambarella, as it would significantly boost sales. A deal would also further diversify Ambarella away from sports cameras and put it further ahead in the growing smart home security market. Dropcam streams footage of its cameras to phones or computers, and also includes an upgrade service with cloud capabilities.

Financials

Ambarella recently reported strong first-quarter earnings. The company saw revenue increase 21% to $40.9 million. Earnings per share rose to $0.25, up from $0.21 the prior year. Gross margins declined slightly due to lower sales of sports cameras. Management stated that results were driven by growth in the company's IP security camera business.

The strong first quarter follows a fourth-quarter report that saw revenue increase 26.8% to $40.0 million. In fiscal 2013, total revenue increased 30.2% to $157.6 million. Full-year gross margins increased, and full-year earnings per share grew to $0.85, up from $0.60 in the prior year.

Ambarella trades with no debt and over $140 million in cash, which isn't bad for a company with a market capitalization of $745 million. The company continues to see high short interest of around 17%, despite growing sales and strong insider ownership (47% owned by founder Nick Woodman and his wife, Jill).

Analysts predict Ambarella's revenue will grow 16% in fiscal 2015 and 23% in fiscal 2016. Earnings per share are also expected to grow to $1.17 and $1.47 per share in the next two years, respectively.

Conclusion

Shares of Ambarella have traded between $13-$36 over the last year. With the announcement of the GoPro IPO, shares have jumped to $26 and will likely carry momentum for the next couple of weeks.

With upcoming catalysts (GoPro's IPO and a possible Dropcam sale), Ambarella shares can easily return to one-year highs. The next few earnings releases should provide further double-digit revenue increases and send shares higher.
$32 today.
Started following this bc of your post. marketwatch had an article on 3 great drone plays a day or so ago, and I was surprised to see amba as one of them.
Bought in @ $26.60
I got in at $31 and change. Liking what I see.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retirement portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year it also pays a divedend twice a year it is .37 a share now.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
It's a risk for sure. One that is paying off well so far, but still a risk.

Don't time the market, but maybe sell 10% each year for the next decade? Meaning, if you have 100 shares now, sell 10. Next year you'll have 90, sell 9. then 81, sell 8... if my math is right, at the end of the decade you'll have 35% of your shares left. Which IMO is a decent amount to have in any one stock.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
I disagree. He should sell imediately. To me.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retirement portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year it also pays a divedend twice a year it is .37 a share now.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
I'd get out. You're retired now. You shouldn't be trying for a home run and 95% in one company is a baaaaaaaad idea (hello enron). I love Publix (shop there a lot) but it's just too much of a risk. Keep 10% or 20% if you must, but I suggest getting out soon.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retirement portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year it also pays a divedend twice a year it is .37 a share now.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Do you have the ability to easily buy/sell the stock? Sounds like you need to find a good financial planner if you are not into doing it yourself. Honestly, you should invest in a good mix of low risk vehicles although you also need to understand that there is risk in any investment that you make. I would do things such as Bond funds, dividend yielding funds or stocks, very few common stocks (5-10% or portfolio), inflation hedging instruments (metals, high yield cd's, etc) and cash. income producing real estate is always a good option as well.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
It's a risk for sure. One that is paying off well so far, but still a risk.

Don't time the market, but maybe sell 10% each year for the next decade? Meaning, if you have 100 shares now, sell 10. Next year you'll have 90, sell 9. then 81, sell 8... if my math is right, at the end of the decade you'll have 35% of your shares left. Which IMO is a decent amount to have in any one stock.
I like this idea but I'd sell to the 35% mark now and move the other 65% in other assets. Not sure of the age of rustycolts, but diversifying sooner rather than later, if >60 years old, would be a much safer bet, no?

Cash, CD's, Bonds (maybe), maybe transfer stock to relatives, income investments, metals.

 
I am 57 so I still have a few years before SS.I have never invested In the stock market so its just a little intimidating.I always just reinvested my dividends and bought the stock on the employee purchase plan plus my 401k and the Publix profit sharing plan ( Publix would give associates on avg about 8.5% of their yearly income in Publix stock).I plan on possibly using Edward Jones as my financial guide as they are authorized to hold Publix stock.Its just I wanted to have some idea as to what I was talking about when I went to see them.I have read through this thread since I retired and found that there are some very knowledgeable folks that post here and that I could possibly gain a little knowledge if I listened.I appreciate what people have posted so far and am looking forward to learning more from others.Thanks again.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
yeah, I wouldn't hold on my portfolio in one stock no matter what. Who's to say there isn't some scandal with management, someone key resigns or goes to a competitor, there is a major lawsuit for something that you had no idea about, etc....

Since the stock isn't publicly traded, I'm not even sure how liquid it would be, you said it's only evaluated every 3 months? Is that when pricing is set?

Assuming your fully vested, I'd get at least 50-60% of my money and into another investment vehicle. Probably closer to 75% unless I was fully confident that the company was in great shape. ESPECIALLY if I was retired and had no outside source of income.

 
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
It's a risk for sure. One that is paying off well so far, but still a risk.

Don't time the market, but maybe sell 10% each year for the next decade? Meaning, if you have 100 shares now, sell 10. Next year you'll have 90, sell 9. then 81, sell 8... if my math is right, at the end of the decade you'll have 35% of your shares left. Which IMO is a decent amount to have in any one stock.
I like this idea but I'd sell to the 35% mark now and move the other 65% in other assets. Not sure of the age of rustycolts, but diversifying sooner rather than later, if >60 years old, would be a much safer bet, no?

Cash, CD's, Bonds (maybe), maybe transfer stock to relatives, income investments, metals.
Go more aggressive if it makes sense, but it's too good a stock to trade out of quickly IMO. Maybe sell half now, then go to 10%ish each year? The conservative bet would be to cash out as others said, but you can't expect 18% return on other investments.

Guru is right of course, being retired with no other source of income is a huge factor. You're older than I thought (no offense). Most of the time when I talk to guys retiring after 25 years, they're in their 40s.

 
There is one truth to the stock market.

NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE!

And I mean nobody. The best we can do is look at the here and now and using fundamental tools to tell us what to buy and technical tools to tell us when to buy it - take a best guess. Money management is far more important than most realize and a person could be a poor picker of stocks and still be successful with proper money management.

Want to know how to pick a financial adviser: Ask them this 1 simple question: "Where do you think the market is going over the next 3 months, 6 months, and year?"

The one that answers: "I don't have a clue" - is far better than the one who tells you they "know" the market will be gaining x%.

Right here - right now the market is bullish. And you MUST be aligned investment-wise to the long side of the market. Sure this market may look toppy. Sure this economy might be a house of cards build on a foundation of sand in the middle of hurricane season. But since no one knows the future - we must continue to bet in the direction of the trend. Fear of buying in a bull market is just as bad (if not worse) than the fear of selling in a bear market. I've said this before but the market typically bounces back to it's highs after the trend has turned. What this means is that even if today were the top...you'd likely be able to manage out of taking a position here with minimal loss. And again long term proper money management would more than make up for unlucky timing. One day this bull market will turn bearish - and as long as you pay attention - as long as you are open to that fact - and as long as you recognize that you probably won't time the top no matter - but will take decisive action when appropriate - you'll be just fine.

I'm one who always tends to have more cash on hand than I probably should. And I also find myself struggling with finding proper spots to take on new longs or add to the positions I already own. So I get the hesitancy here.

But don't get scared away from the market either.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
It's a risk for sure. One that is paying off well so far, but still a risk.

Don't time the market, but maybe sell 10% each year for the next decade? Meaning, if you have 100 shares now, sell 10. Next year you'll have 90, sell 9. then 81, sell 8... if my math is right, at the end of the decade you'll have 35% of your shares left. Which IMO is a decent amount to have in any one stock.
I like this idea but I'd sell to the 35% mark now and move the other 65% in other assets. Not sure of the age of rustycolts, but diversifying sooner rather than later, if >60 years old, would be a much safer bet, no?

Cash, CD's, Bonds (maybe), maybe transfer stock to relatives, income investments, metals.
Go more aggressive if it makes sense, but it's too good a stock to trade out of quickly IMO. Maybe sell half now, then go to 10%ish each year? The conservative bet would be to cash out as others said, but you can't expect 18% return on other investments.

Guru is right of course, being retired with no other source of income is a huge factor. You're older than I thought (no offense). Most of the time when I talk to guys retiring after 25 years, they're in their 40s.
Its ok Old Guys Rule.I got a late start wasted a few years with the compititon wish I had of started at 22 instead of 32 would have had an extra 5 for 1 split.

 
I think I'm gonna dump my WAG and put it all into WWE.
Smartest thing you have said in a long time.
I'm actually intrigued by this... Your response serious?

Any insight here? 4% dividend and a market cap under $900MM... Seems undervalued, but I haven't known anything about wrestling in 20 years and have done no research.

Cliff notes highly appreciated!!
Kind of a dog stock right now. It ran from 10 to 20+ when they announced the WWE network and a projection of X million subscribers. When they launched the network and announced they had like 40% of projected subs the stock tanked.

Not sure you will see a run up with this one unless the network model really takes off.

 
The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens
65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!

 
Wait, wrestling is publicly traded? What the hell are those investor calls like?

"Vince is reporting an earnings miss this quarter, but - wait, what's that? Oh... oh my god!! That's Fred Blassie's music. He just hit Vince in the head with a chair, and he rips off his suit to reveal an, "Increase dividends" T-shirt!! This is despicable!"

 
The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!
I think a case can be made that $WWE is in the process of putting in a bottom. As of yet, a new bull trend is not confirmed. Good luck.

The lesson here is to look at your strategy. What you are basically doing is trading in one stock ($WAG) that is outperforming the broad market (in what is quite possibly the strongest bull market of your lifetime) for another stock ($WWE) that is significantly under-performing the broad market - and under-performing by a significant margin.

This is not to say $WWE will not outperform $WAG from here on out. But in general investing terms, one would do far better buying the strongest performing stocks in the strongest performing sectors when the broad market is bullish. Your strategy is rife with risk, increased volatility, and apt to result in emotional behaviors that will in the long run negatively impact your portfolio.

Think of trading/investing like an athlete. You want to hone behaviors that are fundamentally and technically sound. By doing so you create consistency....consistency is what brings long term success. Top/bottoming picking is probably the single most difficult technical skill to master.

One other side-note: excluding employees vested into company IPOs - Long term I think you would come out far ahead by keeping the stock of the company you work for. Just on this page we see one person retiring by maintaining his LT position in the stock of the company he's worked for.

 
The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!
I think a case can be made that $WWE is in the process of putting in a bottom. As of yet, a new bull trend is not confirmed. Good luck.

The lesson here is to look at your strategy. What you are basically doing is trading in one stock ($WAG) that is outperforming the broad market (in what is quite possibly the strongest bull market of your lifetime) for another stock ($WWE) that is significantly under-performing the broad market - and under-performing by a significant margin.

This is not to say $WWE will not outperform $WAG from here on out. But in general investing terms, one would do far better buying the strongest performing stocks in the strongest performing sectors when the broad market is bullish. Your strategy is rife with risk, increased volatility, and apt to result in emotional behaviors that will in the long run negatively impact your portfolio.

Think of trading/investing like an athlete. You want to hone behaviors that are fundamentally and technically sound. By doing so you create consistency....consistency is what brings long term success. Top/bottoming picking is probably the single most difficult technical skill to master.

One other side-note: excluding employees vested into company IPOs - Long term I think you would come out far ahead by keeping the stock of the company you work for. Just on this page we see one person retiring by maintaining his LT position in the stock of the company he's worked for.
How is this different than timing the market?

 
The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!
I think a case can be made that $WWE is in the process of putting in a bottom. As of yet, a new bull trend is not confirmed. Good luck.

The lesson here is to look at your strategy. What you are basically doing is trading in one stock ($WAG) that is outperforming the broad market (in what is quite possibly the strongest bull market of your lifetime) for another stock ($WWE) that is significantly under-performing the broad market - and under-performing by a significant margin.

This is not to say $WWE will not outperform $WAG from here on out. But in general investing terms, one would do far better buying the strongest performing stocks in the strongest performing sectors when the broad market is bullish. Your strategy is rife with risk, increased volatility, and apt to result in emotional behaviors that will in the long run negatively impact your portfolio.

Think of trading/investing like an athlete. You want to hone behaviors that are fundamentally and technically sound. By doing so you create consistency....consistency is what brings long term success. Top/bottoming picking is probably the single most difficult technical skill to master.

One other side-note: excluding employees vested into company IPOs - Long term I think you would come out far ahead by keeping the stock of the company you work for. Just on this page we see one person retiring by maintaining his LT position in the stock of the company he's worked for.
How is this different than timing the market?
I think every single move that a trader/investor makes - whether that be a buy or a sell - is a "timing the market move."

One only buys $XYZ today because they believe that from this point forward the price will rise.

One only sells $ABC today because they believe that from this point forward price will fall.

Both of those moves are timing moves.

Now if what we're talking about is the ability to find the absolute price bottom of $XYZ and purchase it at that precise moment/bottom - this is essentially what Eminence is attempting to do with $WWE. And what I'm saying is that this is an extremely difficult skill to master. It's not a solitary skill of just picking the bottom either. Over time and multiple trades it's a combination of skills that include a jedi-like mastery of technical analysis as well as a keen ability to properly manage the position with extreme discipline. Strictly adhering to a well thought through set of trading rules with a focus on knowing how and when to fold and how and when to hold. The win rate of this type of a market timer is low. But the gains on wins (when executed to perfection) can be extraordinarily high.

I personally like a higher win rate. And for that, I'm willing to sacrifice trying to find absolute tops/and bottoms and be satisfied with catching the "meat of the move". This is the basis trend trading.

What Em is attempting to do is very difficult to do consistently. Now it is possible on this one trade he wins. And a win might actually be the worse thing for him, because it might pattern a belief that he has a skill which he doesn't actually have.

In the same way that I could take a chimpanzee and Ben Crenshaw and have them both attempt a 50' putt. And the chimp might get lucky and sink the putt while Crenshaw might lag to 1 foot. On the basis of 1 data set the chimp would conclude he was a better putter than Crenshaw - but he would be very wrong.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The deed has been done, my portfolio is now:

35% Walgreens

65% World Wrestling Entertainment

Let's hope Summerslam has a decent buy-rate and the WWE Network has a decent number of subscribers by the end of 2014!
I really hope this is a joke. I'd rather you put your money in TWTR.

Just look at what the guy from Publix did. He reinvested in a company he worked for, kept doing it, and look at him now (from the info we have). Walgreens is a good company to reinvest in especially at 10% discount. Putting faith into the WWE is going to be a slobber-knocker.

 
Wait, wrestling is publicly traded? What the hell are those investor calls like?

"Vince is reporting an earnings miss this quarter, but - wait, what's that? Oh... oh my god!! That's Fred Blassie's music. He just hit Vince in the head with a chair, and he rips off his suit to reveal an, "Increase dividends" T-shirt!! This is despicable!"
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

 
St. Louis Bob said:
General Malaise said:
rustycolts said:
Guys I have just retired from Publix Supermarkets after 25 years I have a pretty substantial nest egg built up in Publix stock.The bad thing is that 95% of my retiremant portfolio is in Publix stock which I understand is not a good idea.Publix stock is not a publicly traded stock. It is evaluated once every 3 months by an independent appraiser so it doesn't seem to fluctuate as much as the market.Since 1951 it averages 18% gain a year.I am a complete novice so I thought I would seek a little advice.Should I hold off for awhile to diversify and wait for the market correction and when I do how much of the stock do I sell and put into somthing else and what type of funds would you suggest.Publix stock has been so good and stable over the years I get really anxious when I think about selling.Thanks.
Don't sell, IMO.
I disagree. He should sell imediately. To me.
:lmao:

 
SSYS was another 3D maker in the space I've been looking at, they're up +12% today too.
I've wanted to build up a little position in ONVO in my IRA. If it hits, it'll be huge. Easy tenner, if not hundred-fold. But I don't have a good track record on the long shots. This one seems different though.
Just bought 625 ONVO @ 8.70 in my IRA, Sure this is risky as heck. Sure it could go to zero. But the chance that it could be a ten bagger or better, I am in. Roughly 90-95% of my retirement money is in “safe” stock/bond funds. I am swinging for the fences with the other 5-10%. I stupidly started investing later in life than I should have. I’m going to take some risks and hope I get lucky. The way I see it is people are getting rich on ten baggers, and I’m not one of them, and I’m going to do what it takes to be one of them. All “safe” plays are not going to get me there. Join me and we’ll get filthy rich together.

 
NajehHejan said:
SSYS was another 3D maker in the space I've been looking at, they're up +12% today too.
I've wanted to build up a little position in ONVO in my IRA. If it hits, it'll be huge. Easy tenner, if not hundred-fold. But I don't have a good track record on the long shots. This one seems different though.
Just bought 625 ONVO @ 8.70 in my IRA, Sure this is risky as heck. Sure it could go to zero. But the chance that it could be a ten bagger or better, I am in. Roughly 90-95% of my retirement money is in “safe” stock/bond funds. I am swinging for the fences with the other 5-10%. I stupidly started investing later in life than I should have. I’m going to take some risks and hope I get lucky. The way I see it is people are getting rich on ten baggers, and I’m not one of them, and I’m going to do what it takes to be one of them. All “safe” plays are not going to get me there. Join me and we’ll get filthy rich together.
Count me in but need a little time. Kicking myself for not getting in when it was $6.60 a couple weeks back. I'll look to get in at the next dip. Gotta free up some money somehow.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I would like to thank everyone who responded.I am going to read everything that I can in the next few days to try to get at least within throwing distance of being slightly informed.I really liked the idea of selling 10% a year until I get where I want to be its less stressful.Thanks again guys appreciate it.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top