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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)

Although my new job has MAJOR sports connections. Apparently one of the guys upstairs knows Peter Angelos pretty well, get and distributes lots of O's luxury box seats.

I'm not much for ### kissing, but I'll certainly make it a point to be nice to that guy. :mellow:

Redskins tickets fall off the truck all the time though, still haven't gone except once to see the Seahawks.

 
This cowboy/charger game and half may or may not get over because of the BS in the first quarter, but whoever posted that article on Dallas being historically bad on defense is spot on.

 
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If you add those 2 drives distance to goal you'd get 1 yard. Instead of 1 yard they got 3 points...and that's after getting 160ish yards, shredding, to get to the .5 each time.

Dallas bout to go down and FG save our 1H ###.

 
Weeden is terribly inaccurate and gets happy feet in the pocket at the first hint of pressure, but my God does he spin a pretty ball when he steps into his throws.

A poor man's Jeff George purely in terms of arm talent.

 
Hmmm, maybe I should be posting the Sharps Report in the preseason too.

CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY:

Another road dog bet from sharps…which is something worth paying attention to because the public just doesn’t bet August road underdogs. If a line moves from Cincinnati +2.5 down to +2 or +1.5, you know it’s from the sharps. They weren’t expecting to see a full three, and took in a coin flip game. The Over/Under is up TWO points from 34.5 to 36.5, representing the biggest totals move of the night. The Over here was the sharps’ strongest total play.
Click to expand...
Final score, 41-39.

 
Today, the leagues 3 best home teams are playing at home. I've got them in a parlay:

Pirates (62% at home)
Athletics (65% at home)
Angels (64% at home)

 
I guess that I shouldn't be surprised, but I noticed yesterday that there are lines on the NFL preseason games.

Any of you actually bet these? Seems crazy to me.

 
Raider Nation said:
Hmmm, maybe I should be posting the Sharps Report in the preseason too.

CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY:

Another road dog bet from sharps…which is something worth paying attention to because the public just doesn’t bet August road underdogs. If a line moves from Cincinnati +2.5 down to +2 or +1.5, you know it’s from the sharps. They weren’t expecting to see a full three, and took in a coin flip game. The Over/Under is up TWO points from 34.5 to 36.5, representing the biggest totals move of the night. The Over here was the sharps’ strongest total play.
Click to expand...
Final score, 41-39.
Click to expand...
Of course.

 
I went 0-2 on Seahawks and Boys over

To top it off I missed my buddy's text that said "Ravens 2nd half" because I was setting up FFAWT draft order :kicksrock:

 
I guess that I understand that it's about the action and not necessarily the analysis of the games, but how do you even decide who to pick? there are so many unknowns.

 
I'm no expert but I know some guys will look at local beat reports to look for advantages (starters sitting, etc)

Or find teams playing Blaine Gabbert and take the 2nd half

 
If anyone is looking for a lean on something to bet on tonight, I'd look Rams 1h. Game is on NFLN. I haven't seen a line on SB yet, but Brees won't be playing and neither will Evans or Grubbs on the Oline. Also, Greg Williams, new DC for STL, will likely bring it sending a message in his first game.

:shrug:

 
Tiger Fan said:
If anyone is looking for a lean on something to bet on tonight, I'd look Rams 1h. Game is on NFLN. I haven't seen a line on SB yet, but Brees won't be playing and neither will Evans or Grubbs on the Oline. Also, Greg Williams, new DC for STL, will likely bring it sending a message in his first game.

:shrug:
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Sounds good.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Raider Nation said:
Hmmm, maybe I should be posting the Sharps Report in the preseason too.

CINCINNATI AT KANSAS CITY:

Another road dog bet from sharpswhich is something worth paying attention to because the public just doesnt bet August road underdogs. If a line moves from Cincinnati +2.5 down to +2 or +1.5, you know its from the sharps. They werent expecting to see a full three, and took in a coin flip game. The Over/Under is up TWO points from 34.5 to 36.5, representing the biggest totals move of the night. The Over here was the sharps strongest total play.
Click to expand...
Final score, 41-39.
Click to expand...
Of course.
Click to expand...
SF/Bal went from 35 to 37 (lost)

NE/Was went from 37 to 38.5 (lost)

CIN/KC went from 35.5 to 37 (won)

 
Friday Sharps:

Sharps haven’t been particularly pleased with their early results in the 2014 Preseason. Their huge support of Buffalo in the Hall of Fame game wasn’t rewarded. Nor was their heavy investments in the Seattle Seahawks Thursday Night in Denver (though there was some buy back before kickoff). Plus, the “blanket” coverage for Overs has been a poor choice to this point. Though, the biggest move to the Over Thursday in the Cincy/Kansas City game proved to be a very easy winner.

Let’s see how the Wise Guys have been betting Friday’s sextet of NFL exhibition games. We’ll take them in schedule rotation order…

MIAMI AT ATLANTA: not much interest here, as Atlanta is still on the opener of -3, and the total has only lifted from 36.5 up to 37. Typically, home field advantage isn’t given the full three points in August. So, it’s a bit telling that sharps AREN’T betting Miami on the key number. Yes, three is less of a key number in the Preseason because teams try more two-point conversions. But, a lack of interest on a dog at +3 is an indictment of that dog. Pass for the Wise Guys, at least as of press time.

BUFFALO AT CAROLINA: Huge move here on Buffalo, which isn’t surprising given their head start last week vs. the Giants. Carolina opened at -2, with oddsmakers hedging some already off of what would be a regular season line up near a touchdown. Sources tell us sharps doubled down on the perceived advantage in quarterback depth, and were very happy to get Buffalo with points, at pick-em, and even at -1. We’re now seeing Buffalo -1.5. The Over/Under is up from 36 to 37, with indicators that it may go even higher by kickoff.

TAMPA BAY AT JACKSONVILLE: Most of the interest here has been on the total, with an opener of 35.5 being bet up to 37. There’s also a possibility of 37.5 here based on what we’re hearing. That’s a bit more than the general blanket support for Overs out of the gate. The team side has moved slightly toward the host, as an opener of pick-em is now Jacksonville -1. That’s a tentative endorsement at best in a matchup of losing teams from 2013.

NEW ORLEANS AT ST. LOUIS: This is the live TV game on the NFL Network. Not surprising that the home team has been bet up from -2.5 to -3 in that light. Oddsmakers know that the public likes betting home teams on TV, particularly at lines below a field goal. Some of that move was sharps taking early position. Were the game to move to St. Louis -3.5, we’re hearing that some sharps would come back over the top on the dog around the key number. The total is up from 37 to 38 indoors on a fast track in a TV game.

PHILADELPHIA AT CHICAGO: Huge move on the total here, with a pair of offensive-minded head coaches. The opener of 38.5 has been bet all the way up to 42.5. That’s a stunningly low opener for a game that might be up around 48-50 if it were in the regular season. The team side keeps hopping between Philly +2 and Chicago -1.5. Both are popular betting teams in Las Vegas, and that see-saw effect has been influenced by square money. The Wise Guys are on Over anything at 42 or less, and are largely passing the team side.

OAKLAND AT MINNESOTA: Another home team that’s been bet from -2.5 up to the key number of three…and another game where the Over/Under moved up a point (from 36.5 to 37.5 in this case) because of blanket support for the theme of additional scoring in August from sharps. We can tell you that more than a few Wise Guys are high on Teddy Bridgewater as a player who can have a positive impact quickly at this level. That’s worth remembering because the same guys loved Russell Wilson as a rookie.

The most popular team side of the night from the sharps is Buffalo, and the Over in Eagles/Bears is the most popular total.
Click to expand...
 
The baseball grind has gotten the better of me lately. Preseason football here, drafts starting etc. Trying these tonight:

Cincy - 130

NYY - 118

ANA/OAK Parlay

GLTA
AB

 
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