Honestly I think Seattle is the favorite for good reason. It's going to be interesting to watch how Green Bay attacks their defense. Do I think their defense is capable of completely shutting down Rodgers and company? No, I don't think in today's NFL, you can shut anyone as good as Rodgers down. I think the Packers have to rely on a Lacy and Cobb in this one as I believe Sherman is going to shut Jordy down. I think Jordy ends up with like a 3-50 type of day. This game is going to come down to Lacy and Stark and Cobb. Losing their center is a big blow but the Packers boast two very good guards in Lang and Sitton. Bulaga is good, but not great and coming back from injury. Bahtiari looked good but who knows if the sophomore slump is in store for him.
I also think the Packers lack the Seahawks punch on special teams. It's just been a weakness for the Packers. If it isn't fumbles, it's slow players. They just lack pop there. Not sure who is returning punts but I doubt it's Cobb or Jordy. If it's Micah Hyde, then at least they have a solid guy to catch the ball and not lay it on the ground. But he's not really a threat to break anything more than an average guy.
On the other side of the ball, I think the Packers can limit the rushing game effectiveness and I also think Shields is a great player to mirror Harvin with. He's just got that quick step to stick with him. He closes on the ball as good as anyone on the Packers D. The pass rush is going to be key for the Packers. How will Peppers, Matthews do together? Peppers is playing LOLB for the first time in his life. He'll probably do fine on 3rd downs and long yardage but I see a square peg in a round hole there (Kampman redux). The Packers have Hawk in the middle who can tackle. He's big and not fast or smart, but when he hits the guys don't usually break through. He'll do much better against Lynch then he would McCoy or Charles. Brad Jones isn't anything special.
So you have to think Lynch is going to go for like 20-105 and 1 or 2 catches or something like that and probably a score. Put that alone isn't going to be enough to beat the Packers. You are going to need to score probably 25 at least. The over/under and spread on this game equate to about a Vegas prediction of Seahawks winning 26 - 19 which I think sells the Packers short.