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Cole is probably better suited to be a pass rush specialist at this point in his career anyway. Howard is a very solid all-around DE who can move inside to DT in passing downs to make room for Cole. If he can stay healthy all season, Howard should have a chance to put up 35 solo tackles and 8+ sacks.
I don’t think Cody will displace any Raven defender in the base package leaving him as a situational player at best. That also makes him unlikely to generate any consistent fantasy numbers. I’d pass.
probably just a situational pass rusher at this point. too small to be an everydown DE and not polished enough to take over an OLB spot yet. I probably wouldn't use a roster spot on him.
I may have a healthy set of blinders on with regard to Cowart and Greenwood, but I don’t think much of either at this stage of their respective careers. I think Greenwood is a better bet to hold onto the WLB role than Cowart is at MLB. And I think it is very telling that the Texans are giving snaps to Ryans at MLB despite most scouting reports pegging him as a much better fit on the outside. Ryans has big time talent. If he ends up at MLB, he’s the Lofa Tatupu of 2006. No matter what happens, this is a situation where I'd draft the talent, which is unquestionably Ryans IMO, and hope (expect) it to land in the most productive fantasy role.
With Sam Cowart’s injury history and increasing age, it’s not a safe bet to assume he produces all year long. He was signed in the offseason with expectations from both team and Cowart alike that we would easily win the starting gig. But he got a little banged up early on and did not return until the last day of minicamp. Kailee Wong, still rehabbing from a serious knee injury, will probably not be ready by opening day. But when he returns, Wong is a presence. Even Wali Rainier shouldn’t be dismissed too quickly, as he knows the system and the coaching staff. Rainier hasn’t done much in this league since he was a Jaguar in 2002, but he did show some spark in the latter half of 2005 as a Lion. And last, but certainly not least, talented rookie DeMeco Ryans has been taking snaps in the middle in recent camps. If Cowart is healthy, he should hold on to the job. But that’s a big “if” and nothing you should put your money on.As for Greenwood, his main competition will come from the aforementioned Ryans. Ryans has been impressive and is seeking a starting job somewhere. He’s a smart, high character player that will definitely see plenty of action. However, I still believe Greenwood holds onto the starting weakside job, at least through the first part of the season. Greenwood had a career-high 112 tackles last year, his first as a Texan, and was about a top 30 LB in most IDP leagues. Greenwood has good speed and an excellent work ethic. He is moving into his more natural fit on the weakside this year after playing inside with the 3-4 defense last year. However, like Cowart, this is not something I’d take to the bank. Ryans is more talented than Greenwood and more of a playmaker. But the NFL is still new for Ryans and it could take some time before he’s ready to be a starter.
There is no open starting position for Cody at this point and he is coming off a major injury. I believe the plan is to ease him in as a pass rush specialist for a while. I don't foresee him having an impact role at this point but they are real thin at LB so an injury to anyone in that group could change everything.
JB and I did a face-off on Sam Cowart. He "strongly dislikes" Cowart while I like him. Its a divided subject to say the least I'm not a Greenwood fan at all and believe that if everyone remains healthy Ryans will capture the WLB job early on. However, Cowart has a tendency to be a little fragile so I can see Ryans in the middle with Greenwood weak by the end of the year. To answer the question, neither Cowart nor Greenwood are a sure thing and Ryans is a good bet to be a starter before mid season. I do however see Cowart as a good risk for a late round pick. He will start if he stays healthy.
Look for Ryans to win the WLB or MLB job with his dependable play. The previous regime vastly overpaid for Greenwood, and I honestly think he's average at best, and probably the odd man out. Cowart should produce as long as he's healthy.
Ahh those Cleveland safeties.. OK lets start by pointing out that the Browns aren't enamored with their FS Brian Russell. The competition is reportedly at SS but it would come as little surprise to see the loser of that battle bump Russell at FS. Pool is the early favorite at SS. Coincidentally Jones has experience at FS having played there in college. There is fantasy potential for the Browns SS though I don't know that I would count on it for top 10 production.
Pool may not have the true SS run supporting skill set that Jones brings, but Romeo Crennel (in true Belichick fashion) needs the guys with the best instincts on the field, and that’ll be Pool. I think there’s a place for Jones in this defense, though, and as soon as he proves he’s ready, I think Brian Russell gets bumped, Pool moves to FS, and the Browns have themselves a pretty nice duo of young safeties.
I always thought of Pool as a prototypical FS. In an ideal world for the Browns, I think Sean Jones would take over the SS job and Brian Russell would make a good backup at either safety position. The new coaching staff didn't seem to give Jones much of a chance last year and I wonder if they might not be too high on him for some reason. Regardless, Pool is clearly the player to watch/get from this group due to his playmaking ability. Top-10 seems far too optimistic but I think he could be a solid starter in most leagues (i.e., top-30) eventually.
Both the Titans and the Colts have a tendency to right/left formations. Thornton won’t have to work against the Tampa-2 scheme spilling everything away from his side of the field this year, but he’ll have to contend with tackle hogging Keith Bulluck’s sideline to sideline range. I think Thornton’s numbers essentially stay the same.
Pool is going to get on the field with his solid all around game - this staff liked him enough to make him the first true safety selected in last year's draft.
The Titans have played Left/Right OLB in the past so there is a good chance they will continue to do so. Thornton has the potential to greatly improve over last years numbers but he will have to beat out Peter Sirmon for third down duties to do so. Last year Thornton lost that job to Brackett which ruined his production. In Tennessee it had previously been Sirmon and Bulluck on third downs. BTW the Colts are also one of the clubs who use right/left outside backers.
David Thornton brings the kind of speed and athleticism that HC Jeff Fisher is looking for and will be a valuable asset to the team. Indeed, Thornton excelled at the weakside spot with the Colts and it seems the more natural position. There has been speculation that Reese acquired Thornton so that the Titans could play more left/right linebacking schemes because of the interchangeable parts allowed by Bullock, Thornton and even Peter Sirmon. But at the end of the day, I find it hard to believe that the Titans don’t try to keep Bullock in the more classic weakside position as much as possible. His production and play has been far too great to think otherwise.The reality is that even last year, the Titans called it more of a left side and right side linebacking scheme, with Sirmon playing on the left side. But when you look at the numbers, Bullock dominated, even with Sirmon playing on third downs. While it is reasonable to think that Thornton has more tackles, especially since he should be playing more on third down than he did last year with the Colts, don’t expect drastic improvement from Thornton’s numbers this year unless he happens to end up playing a bit in the middle.
Thornton can improve on his Indy numbers IF he's a 3 down LB. Some are automatically penciling him in for this duty, but Peter Sirmon is a very well rounded LB and is now two years removed from a severe knee injury.
Hawk seems to be a lock to start at the WLB spot, but there remains some uncertainty about where Nick Barnett will line up. In addition to Hawk, the team also added one of the best pure MLBs in the draft when they spent a 3rd round pick on Abdul Hodge. Hodge is undersized but plays with great energy and was often more productive than fellow Hawkeye Chad Greenway who went in round 1 to the Vikings. If the Packers want to get their best 3 linebackers on the field, they may consider moving Barnett to SLB and inserting Hodge at MLB. Barnett has great speed and cover skills, which would make him a solid fit on the strong side. If that happens, he would still play in the team's nickel package but would likely suffer a substantial drop in production. At this point though, the Packers plan to keep him at MLB and while he should see a drop due to the addition of Hawk and overall improvement of the defense, Barnett should still be a solid LB2.
As I’ve posted in the Forum a few times, I’m not real high on AJ Hawk as a big time fantasy talent. The Green Bay defensive scheme highlights the MLB. New defensive coordinator Bob Sanders is from the Jim Bates/Dave Wannstedt/Jimmy Johnson tree of coaches – think Micheal Barrow, Ray Lewis, Jonathan Vilma at the U and Ken Norton Jr, Zach Thomas and Nick Barnett in the pros. Barnett’s numbers may drop a hair because Hawk will scoop some of the tackles that Barnett used to make five and six yards downfield, but I don’t think it’ll be as dramatic as some suggest.
The better question might be, "How is Abdul Hodge going to affect Barnett?" Certainly Hawk's presence won't help, as he's a huge upgrade from the OLBs in the last few years in GB, and will take tackle opps away from Barnett. What's scarier for barnett's prospects is the possibility that Hodge plays into the starting MLB position, his natural place on the field. He's getting a ton of time as the 2nd team MLB behind Barnett, and the Packers may be compelled to shift Barnett to SLB when Hodge is ready to start.
He could take a little bite out of Barnett's stats but the scheme still makes the MLB a focal point. Both players will have a lot of value but Barnett will remain a borderline stud.
I may be a contrarian, but it could possibly help. If I am the OC of opposing offense, and have a choice of running at Hawk or running at Barnett, I know what I would do!
It is important to remember how average & nondescript have been the OLBs that have flanked Barnett in his relatively brief tenure in GB. Hawk should be much better at containing run plays that attack the weak side, & could spill more action in the direction of Barnett.
Yep. Super Mario’s brand of size, speed, and explosiveness cannot be taught. If he can play the run well enough to make 40 plus tackles, Williams certainly has the skills in pass rush to get 10+ sacks. Peppers got 38 and 10.5 his rookie season, and Williams may be a more polished pass rusher. Long-term, Williams has the size and skill to dominate if he can learn the nuances of leverage in the trenches and be a consistent all around defensive end. Sky’s the limit here.
There is definitely a good chance that Mario Williams becomes a force in 2006. Despite the displeasure of many Texan fans after they passed up Reggie Bush in favor of Williams, Williams could make them forget it. He has freakish abilities and Houston is moving from the 3-4 defense to a more aggressive 4-3 defense this year, which sets up Williams nicely. The Texans have never had a player record more than eight sacks in any season and Williams could quickly break that mark.His long-term chances for success are obviously very rosy. My biggest concerns with Williams are that he took plays off in college and was inconsistent. He can’t do that in the pros and remain as dominant. But he’s got a pretty high character and he certainly has the talent, so the sky is really the limit.
No. Williams still has a ways to go in areas such as having a consistent motor and learning the full array of DE skills. Offenses can also focus on him until the Texans get another bookend DE.Long term, he has top 5 DL upside simply because of his physical ability, but Im not as high on him as most. He's big enough that he could be moved inside on some downs over the course of his career, and he was joined by two first round picks on the D-line at NC State - you would have expected him to be dominant, but he lacked consistency and only seemed to produce big numbers against weaker competition.
Julius Peppers is sometimes cited as a comp (comparable) player. That is inexact as Super Mario is not as athletic, but is already bigger and more powerful. I think the Reggie White comparisons (in terms of physical traits) will prove more accurate, as it looks like when he fills out he will have the same kind of build. Jim Brown was among the best RBs in NFL history because he could run around or through would be tacklers. White similarly had the ability to run around or through blockers that were nearly defenseless against his lethal combo of size, speed, power & explosiveness. Williams may in the near future evolve into that level of dominant physical mismatch for offensive linemen.
Just that what made White such a monster was in large part related to his freakish physical traits... and Williams once he developes may be close in that department. Whether he maximizes his prodigious physical and athletic gifts is an open question. That depends on myriad factors like how hard he works, how well he takes to instruction, surrounding talent, etc...
It would be really tough to pick against Hawk. He's the highest drafted LB to enter the league since Lavar Arrington, has few weaknesses in his game, and should start and play in every package almost from day 1. Among the rest, Ernie Sims and Chad Greenway look like the next best options. They are both expected to start from day 1 and both will be playing WLB in a brand new Tampa 2 defense. After those two, the next group includes D'Qwell Jackson who will fight for a starting ILB job in Cleveland and DeMeco Ryans who has been getting snaps at MLB in Houston but could also wind up taking over at WLB. I think Sims and Greenway have the most bust potential among the top-5 LBs. Sims due to a history of concussions, and Greenway b/c he's not a physical tackler. Also, when it comes to producing quality fantasy LBs, neither the Lions or Vikings have had much recent success. Hopefully that changes with the new coaching staff and schemes being put in place. The 3-4 OLBs (e.g., Kamerion Wimbley, Bobby Carpenter) all have a high fantasy bust potential as well so don't overvalue them based on where they were drafted.
Hawk, Greenwood and Sims are all likely to be starters when the season opens while Ryans and Jackson have a good shot at joining them. From a dynasty perspective I like Ryans over all of them. I believe he will eventually migrate into the middle and become the centerpiece of the Texans new 4-3 scheme. Thomas Howard is the biggest risk IMO. When the scouting report says things like "below average football intelligence" and "need to play in a simple scheme where he has limited responsibilities", it sends up warning flags for me. Those are the guys who usually land at SLB.
Hawk and Sims are almost certainly Week 1 starters. Greenway, Ryans, Lawson, Jackson, Carpenter and McIntosh could be as well. I think Sims is the best dynasty option right now, but Ryans has been rocketing up my draft board with the news that he’s getting snaps at MLB. Bust? In terms of expectations, Hawk and Greenway may not live up to the hype and current draft position. But anyone expecting Manny Lawson (or Kamerion Wimbley) to be a viable fantasy option at LB in most standard leagues is going to be sorely disappointed. Lawson is my “bust”.
Greenway, Hawk, Lawson and Sims all should play a ton in their rookie years. The best dynasty option? Tough call, as it depends on where Hawk plays. I'm most partial to Sims, who seems likely to remain a permanent fixture on the weakside and hits like a truck. If healthy, he's another Derrick Brooks.Adversely, with his injury history (concussions) and off-field problems, Sims could also prove to be the biggest bust. I think he's the most intriguing IDP in the entire rookie class.
AJ Hawk and Ernie Sims should play almost every snap. Hawk's combo of dedication, athleticism, and well rounded skills is scary, and he should be an instant top 20 LB with top 10 upside. Demeco Ryans and Chad Greenway also have good chances to play a big role from day one. Long term, I would also add D'Qwell Jackson (who could still win the starting ILB job beside Andra Davis before camp breaks) to the list of impact fantasy LBs from this draft. Manny Lawson, Bobby Carpenter, and Kamerion Wimbley will be 3-4 OLB and will only make a big impact in leagues that heavily weight sacks.Rocky McIntosh is already banged up, and this was the main knock on him coming out of Miami, so that's not encouraging. I also think Washington panicked and reached for him after Cleveland took Jackson.
There seem to be two different trends going on simultaneously in the league right now. First, there will be quite a few new teams running the Tampa 2 defense popularized by Tony Dungy and the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bears used it and were the league's best defense last year so the Vikings, Lions, and Bills will all try to copy their path to success this year. The other trend is that more teams are switching to a 3-4/4-3 hybrid style of defense that allows them to mix up their fronts from week to week and from play to play. This scheme was very successful for the Patriots in recent years and now will be used by teams like the Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys...with all these teams having a coaching connection to Belichick in some way. Nearly half the teams in the league will probably run one of these two general types of defensive systems this year compared to just a handful a few years ago.
The trend toward multiple defensive fronts (4-3 and 3-4 hybrids) is important because it hurts the value of ends and outside linebackers in many cases. But IMO the most important trend is the explosion of the Tampa-2 scheme. Six teams will use the scheme this year, up from three last year. Although it’s primarily a 4-3 front, the value of the MLB, WLB, CB, and S positions are all skewed to some extent. The Tampa-2 may singlehandedly bring the CB back into play as a consistent fantasy option in all leagues because of the run support responsibilities (and the tackles that come with it) it places on the corners.
Smaller, faster, more athletic MLBs are increasingly in vogue... Mike Peterson, Jonathan Vilma, Lofa Tatupu, Odell Thurman, Antonio Pierce, Nick Barnett, Shelton Quarles, Gary Brackett, Lemar Marshall... the list goes on. The increasing speed of the game & prevalence of spread formations almost demands that MLBs be able to cover. This is such a pronounced trend that it is a misnomer now to say that 230 lbs is "undersized" for the middle... it is fast becoming the norm.Safeties are becoming playmakers. It used to be a stigma to play safety (if you were too slow or didn't cover well enough to play CB). Ed Reed was Defensive Player of the Year in 2004. Troy Polamalu supplanted James Farrior as the defender offenses most have to account for on the Steelers last season, and a case could be made that he was the MVP of their Super Bowl victory last season. Bob Sanders almost single-handedly elevated the Colts defense from perennial laughing stock to a formidable stop unit that was right behind the #1 Bears in total defense (points allowed) for much of the 2005 season. Sean Taylor made a key FR return TD that propelled the Skins past the Bucs in the playoffs and is former state (FL) record holder with a near 45 rushing TD season. Roy Williams is the face of the Cowboys and a perennial Pro Bowler. Adrian Wilson broke the NFL record for sacks by a DB (8) in an incendiary 2005 campaign. Gibril Wilson is one of the brightest young defensive stars in the league. Michael Boulware was an All-American WLB. B-Dawk is all over the field for the Eagles and has Swiss Army Knife type versatility.
The cover 2 is becoming more prevalent - Detroit, Buffalo, and Minnesota are all adopting it this year. the WLB in a cover 2 is a money position for IDP leagues, and WLBs could be as common in the top 10/20 LBs as MLBs.
The one that jumps out most is the growing number of clubs using the Tampa 2. This scheme uses big physical corners and plays them up tight with the safeties having deep half responsibilities. Corner has traditionally been an inconsistent position but the Tampa 2 will make a few corners into consistent fantasy contributors.
The biggest mistake made by new IDP owners is thinking they can win without turning to FBG for help!
But seriously, there is a lot to soak up and its virtually impossible for a newbie to take it all in. If I had to pick one fatal flaw it's that most new owners don't research further than last year's numbers. Everyone in here knows how deceiving pure numbers can be if you know nothing about the player's history or his situation.
The biggest mistake made by new IDP owners is thinking they can win without turning to FBG for help!
The biggest mistakes by those new to IDP leagues include worrying too much about IDP and taking them too early, and filling out each position. Wait on the CBs (although this is different now with the increase of teams playing cover two defenses) and DTs and even all but the top end LBs, safeties and DEs. Also, too many don’t look past last year’s numbers. Too much changes in the IDP world to worry about what they did last year. My best advice? Pay attention to us IDP staff and keep reading the IDP forum posts and staff articles.
Failing to get a good overview to help orient yourself early on, and to get a sense of what knowledge is most important, best to prioritize, etc.THE MORE YOU LEARN... THE EASIER IT IS TO LEARN MORE!
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1) Overpaying for DL and DB, and carrying too much depth at these positions. The spread between the top and adequate options at these positions is not as large as you would think, and viable players are always available on the waiver wire - meaning you should be carrying one backup at most at each position. I choose to carry none in most of my leagues, except at safety in those leagues that break out CB and S.2) Thinking that IDP studs are even close to the value of offensive studs or even solid offensive starters. The supply and demand of players on each side of ball dictates that offensive players are the premium - so even the most studly of IDPs should not be considered in the top 50 overall players unless the scoring system greatly weights IDP scoring.
1. Not paying attention to the scoring system. Wasting a high draft pick on a player like DeMarcus Ware or Manny Lawson in leagues where you get 1.5 pts/tackle and 4 pts/sack is a huge mistake.
