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Player Spotlight: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: T.J. Houshmandzadeh Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
Housmandzadeh finished a surprising 14th among fantasy WRs last year and appears to be on many people's "value" picks. Yet, his 4th season was remarkably similar to his 3rd; showing little if any real skills growth.

In 2004, Houshmandzadeh had 73 recs for 978 yards and 4 TDs...good for 31st among fantasy WRs

In 2005, Houshmandzadeh had 78 recs for 956 yards and 7 TDs...good for 14th among fantasy WRs

With Carson Palmer's health uncertain, and the presence of world-class teammate Chad Johnson, it's hardly unrealistic to expect Houshmandzadeh's TD production to remain in the 4-7 range; which implies a high end value of a middle of the pack WR2, but quite possibly little more than an "OK" WR3.

Given his current ADP of WR20, it hardly seems like Houshmandzadeh offers little if any fantasy value. Agree? Disagree?

70 receptions
925 yards
13.2 yards per catch
5 TDs
123 fantasy poinst
WR32 (FBG Scoring)
 
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Jason, why fewer TDs with the uncertainty of Chris Henry. I can understand downgrading the overall TDs due to uncertainty of Palmer, but Henry had 7 TDs last year.

I see Housh having a similar year to last year in all categories.

 
In my keep 6 players league this is the one player i will really hate to see left in the draft as I think if Palmer is healthy he could be very good but if Palmer does not come back full strength he may not be top 30.

I do think Palmer will be back so ...

80 catches

1010 yds

8 TDs

 
Jason, why fewer TDs with the uncertainty of Chris Henry. I can understand downgrading the overall TDs due to uncertainty of Palmer, but Henry had 7 TDs last year.

I see Housh having a similar year to last year in all categories.
Because a) it's unlikely Cincy will lead the league in TD passes in consecutive seasons, b) Palmer's health and effectiveness remain in question, c) the Bengals are hardly without other options at WR behind Henry, Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman, Kelley Washington and Reggie McNeal could all push for roles under the right circumstances and c) people (mistakenly) tend to presume a player will maintain or elevate his performance across the board each and every year, when it fact there's usually much greater fluctuation.
 
Jason, why fewer TDs with the uncertainty of Chris Henry.  I can understand downgrading the overall TDs due to uncertainty of Palmer, but Henry had 7 TDs last year.

I see Housh having a similar year to last year in all categories.
Because a) it's unlikely Cincy will lead the league in TD passes in consecutive seasons, b) Palmer's health and effectiveness remain in question, c) the Bengals are hardly without other options at WR behind Henry, Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman, Kelley Washington and Reggie McNeal could all push for roles under the right circumstances and c) people (mistakenly) tend to presume a player will maintain or elevate his performance across the board each and every year, when it fact there's usually much greater fluctuation.
I agree. there should be fluctuation. But, you have the production as similar except for TDs ... this is why I asked about TDs.Not to be contentious, but in no way are those WRs in the same ballpark as Henry in the red zone.

 
Jason, why fewer TDs with the uncertainty of Chris Henry.  I can understand downgrading the overall TDs due to uncertainty of Palmer, but Henry had 7 TDs last year.

I see Housh having a similar year to last year in all categories.
Because a) it's unlikely Cincy will lead the league in TD passes in consecutive seasons, b) Palmer's health and effectiveness remain in question, c) the Bengals are hardly without other options at WR behind Henry, Tab Perry, Antonio Chatman, Kelley Washington and Reggie McNeal could all push for roles under the right circumstances and c) people (mistakenly) tend to presume a player will maintain or elevate his performance across the board each and every year, when it fact there's usually much greater fluctuation.
I agree. there should be fluctuation. But, you have the production as similar except for TDs ... this is why I asked about TDs.Not to be contentious, but in no way are those WRs in the same ballpark as Henry in the red zone.
Agreed re: Henry...but that doesn't mean Johnson and Housh magically pick up those 7 TDs; it means, more likely, the Bengals don't throw for as many TDs in 2006 as they did in 2005.Add two more TDs to my projection and Housh would rank 24th on my WR rankings, to put some perspective on things. :shrug:

 
I would think Housh around wr24 seems reasonable. But, Housh at wr32 seems to be a huge drop.

If you downgrade Housh this much because of uncertainty to Palmer, what are you doing to CJohnson's projections?

 
I would think Housh around wr24 seems reasonable. But, Housh at wr32 seems to be a huge drop.

If you downgrade Housh this much because of uncertainty to Palmer, what are you doing to CJohnson's projections?
I personally believe Chad Johnson is currently the best receiver in the NFL...and my rankings reflect as much. :yes: Housh's hype this year is reminiscent to the hype on Reggie Wayne last season. Wayne was coming off a season where many felt he had further upside while the elite player alongside him (Harrison) had peaked. Well, in 2005 Harrison managed yet another top 10 season while Wayne finished outside the top 20 (thanks to a drop in TD output). Housh is nowhere near the receiver Wayne is (physically and in his route running); and I could easily see Johnson maintain/increase his productivity while Housh falls off.

If I have a free moment, I'm going to pen an article about the "Fallacy of the WR2"...all too often people make the case the "Shark" move is to skip over the WR1 and draft the WR2 for "value" later. Not sure empirically the data backs up that strategy as a sound one.

 
I think the odds are good that Palmer may miss a couple/few games or may be rushed back and not perform quite at the level we've come to expect from him based on the last year and a half. Only because of this, I see TJ's numbers dropping oh so slightly... though he'll be solid once again in 06, imo.

Recs: 70

Rec Yds: 900

Rec Tds: 6

 
Jason,

I for one, don't see last year from hoosh as a surprise. He looked real good the year before and seemed to be hitting his stride at the end of 2004. Anyhoo, I think that if you like chad you need to like hoosh.

However, I am one who is a little afraid of both bengal WRs due to the uncertainty of Carson Palmer. Especially in leagues like WCOFF where the first 10 weeks matter more than the last 6, I would avoid all skill position players on their team unless I see great value. For a league where I am sure that I will be in the playoff hunt, drafting one of those guys as a "difference maker" in the playoffs is a sound strategy.

There is no value now do to the uncertainty of carson palmer. If palmer is not ready to go, I see hoosh dropping to WR 25 - 30 and at that point he will have value.

I see him about where you do 70 - 900, but with 9 TDs. The bengal running game and chad will be what defenses try to take away near the goal line, leaving hoosh in single coverage. Seeing how henry stole a few of his TDs last year, I see hoosh getting a TD bump this year, especially if Palmer is not in there (Palmer is more willing to force it into chad than a backup QB would be to throw into coverage)

IMHO

Gator

 
Housmandzadeh finished a surprising 14th among fantasy WRs last year and appears to be on many people's "value" picks. Yet, his 4th season was remarkably similar to his 3rd; showing little if any real skills growth.

In 2004, Houshmandzadeh had 73 recs for 978 yards and 4 TDs...good for 31st among fantasy WRs

In 2005, Houshmandzadeh had 78 recs for 956 yards and 7 TDs...good for 14th among fantasy WRs
One important thing to note is that in 2005, TJ missed 2 games thanks to injury (14 games played, 12 started) . So even though Chad got more receptions than 2004, and Chris Henry came on strong, TJ still got his fair share of looks. I remember reading somewhere he also was tied for the league lead for 3rd down TDs among receivers/TE's. TJ's basically the most reliable Bengals receiver even though he's not the most explosive, and I doubt anything except Carson's injury would stop him from finally clearing 1000 yards. I'd say 77 recs, 1050 yds, 6 TDs.

 
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It's almost too premature to project anyone in the Bengals passing game, or Rudi for that matter, until we know when Palmer will be back. There's just too much gray area. Palmer could make these projections go up (or down) by a 2-3 tds each and 200-300 yds each, maybe more.

 
I'm a big TJ fan and think he is a great guy to own or aquire in dynasty. Jason states he hasn't improved his skill. I disagree with that. Take a look at what Splat says above about his '05 season. TJ was getting it done, even while hurt.

If Palmer was healthy I would be predicting a top 15 finish for TJ, but with him banged up I will go with a slight decrease in last year's numbers:

68 rec 800 yards 5 TDs

 
I'm a big TJ fan and think he is a great guy to own or acquire in dynasty. Jason states he hasn't improved his skill. I disagree with that. Take a look at what Splat says above about his '05 season. TJ was getting it done, even while hurt.

If Palmer was healthy I would be predicting a top 15 finish for TJ, but with him banged up I will go with a slight decrease in last year's numbers:

68 rec 800 yards 5 TDs
Perhaps I shouldn't have suggested skills "erosion" but he certainly didn't show any skills growth...
His yards per reception dropped
His first downs per reception dropped
His "big catches" per reception dropped (20+ yards and 40+ yards)
His YAC droppedBottom line...Housh plateaued (at best) save for a few extra TDs, which was as much a byproduct of the Bengals passing game being taken to a new level (Palmer led the league in TD passes). And remember, TDs are the most volatile component of a players fantasy output year to year, so counting on increased TD production is foolhardy absent obvious upside/skills growth in the other facets of his game.

 
Given his current ADP of WR20, it hardly seems like Houshmandzadeh offers little if any fantasy value.
Agree. His value is close to his ADP.I have him at WR15 so I see a little upside at where he is going, but you are right the secret is out.

That said, I think he's talented enough to continue to take advantage of the fact that Chad Johnson always gets the tougher coverage. And as long as CJ is on the other side, TJ has little downside. This makes him a quality pick in my eyes in that range. I like him better than other options like Driver and Burress because he has less downside IMO.

 
Considering most people have TJ at around 6 to 8 TDs, and 600-800 yards with 50-65 receptions, why would anyone waste a 5th to 7th round pick on him as your WR#2 when you can get a Mushin Muhammad or Rod Smith or Antonio Bryant or Keenan McCardell much later and still get similar #s

 
Considering most people have TJ at around 6 to 8 TDs, and 600-800 yards with 50-65 receptions, why would anyone waste a 5th to 7th round pick on him as your WR#2 when you can get a Mushin Muhammad or Rod Smith or Antonio Bryant or Keenan McCardell much later and still get similar #s
:mellow:
 
Last year's numbers when Housh was in the lineup:

Chad Johnson: 1250 yards, 7 TDs

TJ Houshmandzadeh: 950 yards, 7 TDs

I owned CJ last year, and I think a lot of people that didn't own CJ don't realize how solid Housh did last season. I remember checking up on gametracker and seeing Cinci downfield or scoring and being frustrated as it seemed to be Housh racking those up just as often as it was CJ.

I really don't like Housh, I don't know why just something about him. Even still I've got him down for:

83 catches

1100 yards

8 TDs

And I think he could end up quite a bit higher as well.

 
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I think Housh is a very solid reciever. He finished top 15ish last year, I've got a ppr league where he finished 12th in points among recievers...and thats with missing 1 game.

If you combine his rushing and recieving yardage, he had over 1,000 yards and 8 tds. I haven't seen many leagues that dont score rushing and reciving yards and tds the same.

I think he'll produce right around where he's drafted. You might not get a steal and a stud, but he's a good WR2 and an excellent WR3. Could be worse...You could roll the dice on a young guy, and miss alltogether.

Projections:

78 Receptions

1006 yards

12.9 yards per reception

6 recieving TDS.

They like to give him the occasional rush too, so I'll throw some of that into the mix as well

8 Rushes

57 yards

7.1 yards per carry

 
I'm a believer, I think Housh will break a 1000 this year. Hard to predict TDs but he should be able to get at least 6 or 7 in that highpowered offense

 
I certainly don't regret "wasting" a 4th rd pick on Housh, if he hadn't missed the first 2 games his numbers would be nothing short of spectacular. Not to mention that he came thru for me when it mattered most - the championship game!

 
I certainly don't regret "wasting" a 4th rd pick on Housh, if he hadn't missed the first 2 games his numbers would be nothing short of spectacular. Not to mention that he came thru for me when it mattered most - the championship game!
Couldn't agree more. Drafted him in the 4th round of a 1 player keeper league as my WR3 and was quite happy with him all year...especially the way he played at the end of the year when DJax went down. Thanks for assiting in my "Championship" Housh! :thumbup:
 
Considering most people have TJ at around 6 to 8 TDs, and 600-800 yards with 50-65 receptions, why would anyone waste a 5th to 7th round pick on him as your WR#2 when you can get a Mushin Muhammad or Rod Smith or Antonio Bryant or Keenan McCardell much later and still get similar #s
:goodposting:
 
Considering most people have TJ at around 6 to 8 TDs, and 600-800 yards with 50-65 receptions, why would anyone waste a 5th to 7th round pick on him as your WR#2 when you can get a Mushin Muhammad or Rod Smith or Antonio Bryant or Keenan McCardell much later and still get similar #s
Reply is as smooth as Walter :shrug:
 

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