Overall, I thought this draft was stronger than last year's: people did a better job pursuing value, which is key in this format. Last year's over-focus on QBs was replaced by perhaps a bit too much enthusiasm for TEs, and people still took too many RBs too early, but it wasn't as easy to find screaming values as it was last year.
Team analysis:
Yellow Dog
It's good to be the king, and it's good to have the 1.01 pick in a 16-team draft. LJ is certainly a strong anchor to any team, and a significant advantage over the guys drafting Ronnie Brown in the middle of the round. Despite only moderate investment in RBs after round 1 (picks in rounds 2, 5, and 11), I still have Yellow Dog as #1 in projected RB scoring. He also has a decent WR corps, headed by Chambers and with a lot of high risk-reward guys following him up. If at least two or three of those work out, he will have a solid WR unit. K and D are middling, QB is on the weak side, and TE is dead last by a fair margin. This should be a competitive team, that can win it all if it gets good WR production.
CalBear
This year, second place isn't so bad, either. I might have taken LT even if I had the first pick. This year, I didn't do quite as much to optimize for VBD points, focusing more on players who I feel are undervalued by FBG projections. (I also did some of my own projections, but have a bunch more still to do). Thus, picks like Joe Horn at 5.02 and Isaac Bruce at 8.15 were not the top of my list by projections at that position, but in reality I believe they will perform better than the others rated ahead of them. I wound up with a strong WR corps, strong RBs (weakened if Martin retires), above-average QBs, middling D, weak K and very weak TE. If at least one of my RB situations (Rhodes, Martin, Davenport) works out, and one of my "2006 Galloway" picks (Horn, Bruce), I should be in a position to win.
Biabreakable
I don't like passing on Alexander, but I can at least see the argument. I don't like the Davis pick in the second round much in this format. Overall, I see this team as among the weakest, mostly because Biabreakable did a lot of "swinging for the fences." He's got a bunch of players, like LenDale White, Gado, Mike Bell, Troy Williamson, and Zach Hilton, who are not projected to get very many points, but have some possibility of being big. In an all-or-nothing format, I can understand that tactic, but I think he should have gotten a more solid core first; he's likely to have too many busts among that group for the one or two that hit to make up for. I would have started with Alexander and then taken a WR in the second round; there's plenty of time to mess around with upside picks later. RB is the strength of the team; I have him below average in all the other categories. If Mike Bell really is Denver RB#1, maybe he'll have a chance.
rzrback77
Our discussion of SF's QB situation notwithstanding, I have rzrback77 with the highest overall projections. He is particularly strong at WR, and I also have him as #1 in the D position, although the total spread at D (top team to bottom team) is only 75 points. With Alexander falling to him at #4, his RBs wound up above average even though he concentrated on WR picks early. His TEs are also a smidge about the median. The QBs are below average, even before you take into account the fact that the FBG projections for SFQB are unrealistic. Overall, I think this is a strong team that can win it all, especially if Alex Smith turns out not to suck or (more likely) gets injured and gives way to Dilfer.
Wheelhouse
I have Wheelhouse in the middle of the pack. Taking RBs in the first and second rounds gave him RBs in the top half of the league, but Tiki isn't nearly as strong an anchor as the four RBs taken before. He reached a bit for New England TMQB, and followed that up with Tennesse, which I like, so he's also in the top half at QB. His WRs are below average, especially if you think that Galloway is overrated this year (as I do), and his TE production is totally dependent on a rookie in the worst pass offense in the league. If Vernon Davis turns out to be the next coming of Antonio Gates' second year in the league, or Galloway repeats his heroics from last year, he might have a shot at the title, but I think his chances are marginal.
MLBrandow
I have MLB as the weakest team by projections; that's partly because he picked up Gramatica, who's currently projected at zero, but even with another 150 points he'd be at the bottom of the league. A big part of the disparity is that I have Gates' performance dropping off significantly; if he goes for 1000/10 again, MLB will at least be in the mix. Outside of TE, though, I don't have him above average at any other position, and his RBs are absolutely putrid. He will need a miracle at RB, plus one at WR (Rogers or Boston going off) to have any hope at contending. Oh, and also Gramatica winning the PK job.
radballs
The numbers come up well for this team, but I think the DD is overrating it a bit. A lot will depend on how Jackson gets used, and whether Chris Brown winds up starting most games for the Titans; if both of those things happen, the RB corps is very strong and can make up for so-so WRs and QBs. He definitely has a chance. He gets negative points for taking a player from Stanford.
Captain Hook
With the exception of TE where he's #2, I have Hook near the middle of the pack at the rest of his positions. The TE will not be enough on its own to put him over the top, but if a couple of his RB situations work out, or a flier WR like Gardner, Greg Lewis, or Mark Clayton, he could be competitive.
DonnyT33
I don't know if my making fun of Donny's first-round QB pick changed his strategy, but actually IND QB at 1.09 is not totally awful in this format. It's a lot better, at least, than IND QB at 1.01 where it was taken last year. I like the follow-up of BAL QB in round 8, as McNair/Boller is one of the combos that moves up the board in team QB formats; I have him as #1 in QB scoring--which he also was last year, but this time he didn't reach for his QBs as much, so his other positions are better than they were. His RBs are a bit scraggly to my eye, but by projections they're in the top half of the league. His TE, K, and D are OK and his WRs are really poor. Chris Henry? I don't see this team being really competitive, but Donny won't finish 15th again.
nittanylion
Three of his first four picks look like big reaches to me (Ronnie Brown, Andre Johnson and Ben Watson). As a result, nittanylion winds up well below average at QB and RB (unless Greg Jones starts in JAX), dead last at D (which isn't that much of a problem), and only above average at WR. If Andre Johnson finally lives up to the hype, or Porter keeps sulking and Gabriel puts up big numbers in Oakland, he might have a shot, but overall I think this is one of the weaker teams. (He does have the distinction of being the first team to draft Rob Bironas).
There it is
This team is a solid examination of the Stud TE theory. I have him over 200 points ahead of second place at the TE position, over 400 ahead of #16. He also spent early on QBs, and is set near the top of the league at that position, too. To get there, he had to sacrifice RB and WR completely (#16 and #14 overall by my numbers). I don't have his TE advantage giving him enough to overcome the weakness at RB and WR; he's in the middle of the pack. But if he gets lucky on one of his RBs (looks pretty dang unlikely to me) or a couple of his WRs (possible, with Meshawn, Glenn, Booker, and Parker), he might get to the upper echelon.
Sinrman
I don't see this team as exemplary in any way, but it has some chances. I really dislike RB handcuffing in this format; it is not worth two high picks to lock up any running game: first of all, running games aren't that valuable in this format; and second, handcuffing is a conservative move, and a 16-team all-or-nothing league requires aggression. He made some nice WR picks which should generate decent points for him, so if one of Bell or Dayne winds up running in Denver, he'll probably be OK, but I don't see him threatening for the league title.
Chumpson
Chumpson apparently was channelling LHUCKS, with three reaches in a row for RBs to start his draft, followed by two QBs. The RB corps is strong and so are the QBs, but the WRs are pathetic, projected over 100 points behind 15th place, over 500 points behind first. There's no way the RBs and QBs will make up that gap, unless, uh, Patrick Crayton or Samie Parker turns into this year's Galloway? I'll give him points for choosing a strategy and sticking with it, but minus points for the actual strategy chosen.
joffer
This is a very solid team, especially considering how late in the round he was picking. I am not as enamored of the Jordan pick as some were, but it worked out after two more people took marginal RBs, allowing joffer to snag Smith on the comeback. Ward was solid value at 3.14 and so was Denver QB at 6.03. Overall I have joffer slightly above average in all categories, which, again, is impressive drafting from the end of the round. He has a real shot.
Old Milwaukee
Poor picks of James and McGahee at 1.15 and 2.02 doomed this draft. He had to reach for Roy Williams at 3.15 and then LJ Smith at 4.02. Giants QB is a reach at 5.15 also. If Ahman Green gets the starting job and performs well, and if Roy Williams becomes the next TO, and McCardell or Moulds or Roddy White somehow wind up in the top 10, he'll have a shot, other than that, this looks like a write-off.
Construxboy
Construxboy took advantage of RB focus in the first round to snag two major studs at WR; he's in a virtual tie with rzrback for the best WR corps. His RBs are quite weak and his QBs are questionable, but with a break or two he could be in the hunt.
DonnyT33I don't know if my making fun of Donny's first-round QB pick changed his strategy, but actually IND QB at 1.09 is not totally awful in this format. It's a lot better, at least, than IND QB at 1.01 where it was taken last year. I like the follow-up of BAL QB in round 8, as McNair/Boller is one of the combos that moves up the board in team QB formats; I have him as #1 in QB scoring--which he also was last year, but this time he didn't reach for his QBs as much, so his other positions are better than they were. His RBs are a bit scraggly to my eye, but by projections they're in the top half of the league. His TE, K, and D are OK and his WRs are really poor. Chris Henry? I don't see this team being really competitive, but Donny won't finish 15th again.
I like my team better than yours..i will not get into all the rosters as i just dont have the time.but since you made emntion of my team and how its not so good and i will not finish last i want to look at our teams side by side now.
Colts, Indianapolis IND TMQB - 1.09
Ravens, Baltimore BAL TMQB - 8.08
Duckett, T.J. ATL RB - 5 11.09
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB - 4 12.08
Jones, Kevin DET RB - 8 2.08
Jones, Thomas CHI RB - 7 6.08
Lewis, Jamal BAL RB - 7 3.09
Branch, Deion NEP WR - 6 4.08
Clayton, Michael TBB WR - 7.09
Edwards, Braylon CLE WR - 10.08
Henry, Chris CIN WR - 5 14.08
Northcutt, Dennis CLE WR - 16.08
Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE - 6 9.09
Winslow, Kellen CLE TE - 6 5.09
Nedney, Joe SFO PK - 7 18.08
Stover, Matt BAL PK - 7 15.09
Browns, Cleveland CLE Def - 17.09
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 13.09
I love my Qb's and think Manning will keep me in this all year with a huge year like he had in 04 with no Edge there hs is hell bent on carring the team and has all the waepons toi do so. Six points per TD is big for him. Balt should be one of the most improved teams in the whole league this year and i think may get deep into the playoffs this year. I would like to see an Indy vs Balt AFC title game and it just might happen. These leagues are really won on decent drafting and a whole lot of luck during the year as far as who will play and who wont and who stays healthy and who doesn't etc. If TJones ends up the guy and Braylon plays from week one Duckett gets traded to Pitt..things like that can really make or break any teams chances in this thing. But i like my chances of having some good things happen for me this year. I did wait on WR's but as long as Branch plays I should be Ok as I LOVE Mike Clayton this year and just hope TB lets him rest his latest toe injury. I took a chance on Braylon that he will play most of the year. Before he got hurt he was beginning to dominate in some of the games I watched him in. I am not expecting that right away but if he lasts all year he will put up nice numbers. He will be a key for my WR corps. I waited on #4 and 5 WR's and took a few super sleepers who i think will do well enough to keep me in this. Henry has loads of talent on the field and the Cinci players just love his game when he is playing...Palmers only completion was to him for like a 70 yard TD before he got hurt last year so dont forget that..Palmer also likes this kids game and will get him the ball when he is open, he has also lobbied the coaches to hang on to him and let him play for the team and not cut him as have other players on offense, the kid must have soemthing going for him when playing the game. Nortcutt has his slot position back full time in that offesne and gets open always and now has Winlsow taking up alot the coverage..he is truly a super sleeper this year and will have a few big games.
I can live with my WR's and like them much more you do(really poor was the word). I think My TE's are solid esp for where I drafted them and like my chances of racking up some points. Lewis may be the leading recicver in jacksonville and if Winlsow plays up to half what he says i am all set there. My kickers and Defesne will not hurt me at all and Seattle may put up some nice points this year as well as Romeo's guys in Clevland. I think i Iay have the best RB's in this league and if you say mine are "scraggly" what would you call yours? LT and a prayer or your 2 vs my 5 all year long? Quite a big mistake calling my group of Rb's scraggly as I have no idea what your looking at. KJones, Lewis and TJones, the Duckett and Jacobs behind them is scraggly in a 16 team league? Would you like to re-think this before i really use it against you as far as your FF cred goes here?
All in all I like my chances of hanging in this and giving it a shot to win it all..I am saying this without looking at all the rosters and just liking what I have to work with this year. If certain things happen for me I can win this for sure..i just dont have the time to disect all the teams but look forward to seeing how you all feel about your own teams here.
now for your team.
Dolphins, Miami MIA TMQB - 8 7.02
Texans, Houston HOU TMQB - 5 9.02
Davenport, Najeh GBP RB - 6 13.02
Martin, Curtis NYJ RB - 9 6.15
Rhodes, Dominic IND RB - 6 4.15
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB - 3 1.02
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 9 2.15
Bruce, Isaac STL WR - 7 8.15
Driver, Donald GBP WR - 6 3.02
Horn, Joe NOS WR - 7 5.02
Wilson, Cedrick PIT WR - 4 11.02
Anderson, Courtney OAK TE - 3 12.15
Graham, Daniel NEP TE - 6 16.15
Johnson, Eric SFO TE - 7 14.15
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 6 15.02
Nugent, Mike NYJ PK - 9 17.02
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def - 3 18.15
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def -
After LT/Boldin and Driver all i see here is a bunch of question marks. You are already dead with Martin as he wont play a down for the Jets this year and is likely out for the year(bone on bone..oouch). Davenport is nothing but a hope and a prayer. Word out of Indys camp is the they hit the jackpot in Addai and some are calling him the first round steal as he looks a lot like Edge so far and can really block already. Rhodes will play but when this kids gets his turn he may be hard to get off the field. IMO you have him and LT at RB and thats it, the others are useless it will be 4-5 vs 2 for you at that spot all year. Your Qb's are alos very shaky both are in first year sytems with new coachs and that usally does not play out wekk intil lateer in the eyar and it will be to late foir you at that point. You are very strong at Wr and should be after taking so many early pciks on them. I love Driver this eyar and he may be your best WR..with Edge and LT in Ariz. this year no way Boldin sees all the looks he did last year. Horn is another question IMO..is he even that much beter than Stallworth ADP wise? I don't know.but an upgrade at QB cant hurt him but again he is in a new system that may take time to get used too. Also there is a guy named Bush there who will steal away about 60-90 looks from him. Do you realize you have ten spots on your roster of players who are all in brand new systesm with brand new coachs? that is never good for FF esp early in the season and a good start in these can go a long way.
You took Curtis Martin and Davenport but call my group oif RBs scraggly?? Oh my....I would take my scraggly group over any in this league and that goes without even checking the rosters..and miles ahead of your gruop LT or not..you have nothing behind him of concern and let me say this if i am a DC vs SD this year..i put TWO spies all over the filed on him and Gates and dare Rivers and McCardell to beat me. This means he will not have the type of year you need him to have to make up for your glaring weakness at the other RB's spotss
I will just end with this..i would be shocked if your team finished ahead of mine and will be keeping an eye on you and Biakabutka's teams all year now after hearing you diss my team and talk up yours.