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More importantly, we all can't be drafting in the top 5 picks. If you want to suggest Manning or Steve Smith in place of Rudi, I can buy that argument if the league scoring setup is favorable to QB or WR. However, it's hard to believe a better RB will be there come the late first round, and in 12 team leagues, I'm pretty sure someone actually has to draft 10th, 11th and 12th in the first round.
Outstanding post. Not just ironic but insightful and true.
OK . . . I'll play.So Rudi is a worse pick than say . . .Holmes, McGahee, McAllister, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Domanick Davis who were all first round picks last year?Would your fantasy team have done better with those guys than Rudi?
Have you guys ever done an article on the seemingly large amount of first round busts, and if this is a trend?OK . . . I'll play.So Rudi is a worse pick than say . . .Holmes, McGahee, McAllister, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Domanick Davis who were all first round picks last year?Would your fantasy team have done better with those guys than Rudi?
I haven't, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't one on site somewhere . . .Have you guys ever done an article on the seemingly large amount of first round busts, and if this is a trend?OK . . . I'll play.So Rudi is a worse pick than say . . .Holmes, McGahee, McAllister, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Domanick Davis who were all first round picks last year?Would your fantasy team have done better with those guys than Rudi?
I just can't stay away. The Jerk hasn't posted anything adequate to refute the stats.He said compare Portis and Rudi. Look at their game logs.at this point you are ignoring the other statsboth keys and the jerk posted several stats that disprove your arguement, the fact you refuse to acknowledge them and still proclaim yourself to be right is laughableI could do this until I'm blue in the face.
Instead, I'll just leave what I've said at that. The chart above shows that RJ had 8 games where he failed to get 10 points. There's a whole lot worse you could do and oh by the way, the fact remains, there's a whole lot better you can do than drafting Rudi to be your #1.
We'll see who is right at season's end. What will be great is when he posts a 1300/11 season, but gets his points again in 1/2 his games, leaving high and dry in the other 8 games. That's a win for me. This thread was not about saying his numbers suck. It is about saying his numbers don't really help you win a fantasy title, b/c shows up weak in games. Hmmm -- ARod not showing up for the Yanks when the game is on the line -- solid analogy -- except Rudi doesn't have near the talent as ARod does in his respective sport.
I've given the facts, all you bozos want to do is list total yrds/TD. That is guppie stuff. Instead, why don't you look behind the numbers, game logs, consistency, one of his mates on offense with a serious injury.
As long as I can bank on guppies, I'll continue to dominate. Goodnight and goodluck to you as you cuddle up to your Rudi doll.
Are you the JERK b/c you don't listen or read. We're NOT DEALING IN TOTAL FANTASY POINTS!You are a moron.
In 0 PPR leagues, SA, LT, Tiki, Edge, Larry Johnson.
True, except for LJ (he of course didn't see the field enough to qualify in 2004).
Misread the question . . . thought it was more TOTAL points combined over the two seasons.
Trust me, RR. Standard deviation will take into account variation (it is the square root of variance after all). Rudi's standard deviation for weeks 1-16 was slightly smaller than Portis' standard deviation, and he averaged 0.3 ppg more than Portis. I'm not dealing exclusively in total fantasy points.In addition, if you read ALL of the posts instead of just the ones you feel you can twist to your advantage, you will see that both Portis and Rudi had the same number of games with fewer than 8 fantasy points (between Weeks 1-16).So you are now placing the crux of your argument on the fact that 10 FP in a game is a strong showing, while 8 is a performance that hurts your team. Is that right?
No, you still can't read the posts. You want to make it a Portis vs. Rudi thing. If that's the case, then feel free to select Rudi ahead of Portis now. His shoulder injury should make you feel comfortable in that pick. Just make sure you are making that choice in the 2nd round.
Based on expectations this year I'll take 9 backs ahead of Rudi. And I can't wait to hear, "well Brown is not proven, nor is SJAX." Bad argument. You don't just take last year's final rankings and draft off that do you?
Yes, but I sure can spell.It's a shame that your massive intellect is masked by your limited vocabulary.As a service to you, here are some synonyms for moron, edited for the filter:fool, idiot, imbecile, mooncalf, nincompoop, ninny, nitwit, simple, simpleton, softhead, tomfool. Informal: dope, gander, goose. Slang: cretin, ding-dong, dip, goof, jerk, nerd, schmo, schmuck, turkey.There I am, 5th from the left in the slang row.No you stil can't read the posts. You want to make it a Portis vs. Rudi thing. If that's the case. Feel free to select Rudi ahead of Portis now. His shoulder injury should make you feel comfortable in that pick. Just make sure you are making that choice in the 2nd round
Now for a serious reply...Please name the 9 backs you would take ahead of Rudi -- as a service to the forum. This will be helpful to all of the guppies (like myself).ETA: If possible, please show your rationale as to why they will be CONSISTENT (specifically more consistent than Rudi) in 2006. Thanks.No, you still can't read the posts. You want to make it a Portis vs. Rudi thing. If that's the case, then feel free to select Rudi ahead of Portis now. His shoulder injury should make you feel comfortable in that pick. Just make sure you are making that choice in the 2nd round
You still haven't responded rationally to this...who would you rather draft late in the first round that's more "consistent"?Keys Myaths said:
You're missing the point. Those were ranked in order of their finish last season.I would say that it's logical that the highest scoring RB should go over 10 points more often than the lowest scoring RB in the NFL. Do you agree with this statement? Let's go a step further- the highest scoring RB should hit double digits more frequently than the 10th highest scoring RB in the NFL. I mean, they averaged more points per game, so it's certainly more likely that they got more points on any given game, right?So, put them in order, Rudi's a little above the median.
I had compiled all the information from a couple years worth of ADPs and season-ending VBDs for my own personal use, but I lost it all in a hard drive transfer (thought I had backed it up, but it turns out I thought wrong). Anyway, I've been saying for a while that 50% of all draft picks are busts, and the data really bears it out.Whenever anyone says that you can't win by picking ________ in the first round, I just laugh, because you could frequently pick your grandmother in the first round and get similar production to some of the players that will be taken there.I haven't, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't one on site somewhere . . .Have you guys ever done an article on the seemingly large amount of first round busts, and if this is a trend?OK . . . I'll play.So Rudi is a worse pick than say . . .
Holmes, McGahee, McAllister, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Domanick Davis who were all first round picks last year?
Would your fantasy team have done better with those guys than Rudi?
Agreed. Of course, if it's a 12 team league, you only had an 8.33% chance to win in the first place.
SSOG, I respect your FF acumen. However, the double-digit threshold is an arbitrary mark. In an earlier post, I showed how if you change that mark to 8 points, than Rudi hits the mark as often as the other top backs.Now I can't just say that and leave out the obvious point that Rudi may be slightly less consistent given that the other backs had more 10+ games even though he had the same number of 8+ games. However, you may wish to change your threshold slightly as part of your deeper investigation.I agree with the main point that first-round picks are far overanalyzed and late first round picks are overrated as to their impact on your fantasy team. Last year, 10 of the top 18 RBs (by ADP) were busts, as were half of the top 6 WRs.Anyway, good insight by you. Nice to have actual discussion rather than pointless name-calling.
Not even close. He was a backup half the season. He went nuts there at the end, but he didn't outscore entire full rosters my opponents had by himself. WW moves kept me in it.Rudi was more important due to consistency. There were so many games where my team faltered that Rudi saved just by solid, every week production. One starter goes down, but Rudi was there to cover. If you really think the first round pick is the make-or-break pick of the draft, you're sorely mistaken. It's going to take a few more seasons experience for you to realize that good management can overcome a bust pick. The season before, I made the playoffs with Rudi Johnson and Kevan Barlow as my #1 and #2 picks. Barlow was a complete bust. There was no Larry Johnson to save me. It was just Rudi plugging away. At where he's drafted, he's got great value.funny, you made the playoff b/c of one dude -- Larry.I made the playoffs with Rudi. My roster after the draft:Bulger/Leftwich: both got hurt, finished the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting.Rudi Johnson, Larry Johnson, JJ Arrington, DeShaun Foster, Eric Shelton: Yes, JJ Arrington was my starter since Larry was still a backup, and Foster/Shelton was "insurance". Andre Johnson, Deion Branch, Ron Curry: Andre took the biggest dive of anyone last season. Curry got injured in game 1.Dallas ClarkSebastian JanikowskiBengals, Lions DSTI'll repeat: I made the playoffs starting with that roster. Please tell me what 6/7 players there saved my butt?Now, first off, Rudi as RB1 in a redraft is fine, because of the Snake format. Compared to the other guys available at his ADP, he's a solid choice. And you can catch up on the other teams when the snake comes back to you with a solid second player. All the focus is on the top 5-6 RBs, but once they're gone it's all about maximizing value. And those 5-6 top guys get saddled with second players outside of the top 20.RabidRabbit said:Rudi sucked so badly last year in the first 8 games, that in a majority of leagues (of course I have to speculate -- like I have the research) I the teams with Rudi as their #1 pick failed to place....If you had Rudi on your team last year and won $$ in your league. Post 6-7 other players you had on your roster
I understand the arguement that the numbers were arbitrary- and I agree that 10 points is a pretty arbitrary cutoff. I used it because I was counting results by hand, and it's easier to see the difference between 8 points and 10 points than it is to see the difference between 10 points and 12 points (there's an extra digit- duh!).I still wouldn't change the cutoff to 8 points, though. I view 8 points as a bad game, and don't think we should count how many times an RB had a bad- but not HORRIBLE!- game.SSOG, I respect your FF acumen. However, the double-digit threshold is an arbitrary mark. In an earlier post, I showed how if you change that mark to 8 points, than Rudi hits the mark as often as the other top backs.
Now I can't just say that and leave out the obvious point that Rudi may be slightly less consistent given that the other backs had more 10+ games even though he had the same number of 8+ games. However, you may wish to change your threshold slightly as part of your deeper investigation.
I agree with the main point that first-round picks are far overanalyzed and late first round picks are overrated as to their impact on your fantasy team. Last year, 10 of the top 18 RBs (by ADP) were busts, as were half of the top 6 WRs.
Anyway, good insight by you. Nice to have actual discussion rather than pointless name-calling.
I'm OK with your logic. However, all I would say definitively is that Rudi was more consistent in 2004 than in 2005.What do you think of this statistic?
Haha, you beat me to it. I was just about to say "don't you dare pull out standard deviation, because higher means and huge games make that nearly useless for comparisons here". I really like that normalized Standard Deviation, though, and think it's a very fair metric for RB inconsistancy. I have no problem at all calling Tomlinson the most inconsistant RB in the league, and definitely agree that Johnson is #2 on that list.
). I have corrected my original post, but listed below are the corrected numbers on stdev and stdev/total pts (Note that I also re-ordered the data set.):
