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Who can unseat Gates as the best T.E. this year? (1 Viewer)
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PahtyTom
Footballguy
How long did it take Brees and Gates to establish that chemistry? In 2003 Gate's saw limited action as a rookie while Brees lost his starting QB job to Flutie. In 2004, Gate's started for the first time in his 2nd year as a pro and Brees won his starting job back and they both had a great year. So when did they establish this chemistry? Training camp of 2004? You see where I'm going with this...
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
So really, it's not because Gates won't get open, as you said, but moreso your concern of Rivers getting him the ball.And how long, exactly, did it take for Brees and Gates to hit their stride?
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CalBear
Footballguy
I think it is unrealistic to expect Rivers to step in and perform at the same level and in the same way as Brees. 3300 yards with 25 TDs, which is about what Brees averaged since Gates emerged, would be an extremely successful season for Rivers, probably at the high end of expectations. If he throws for 2800 yards and 19 TDs, which would still not be a bad season for a first-year starter, it will impact Gates' numbers.
H.K.
Footballguy
Yes, I do, and it is a point worth considering. While 2004 saw the emergence of Gates and Brees, they were able to catch some teams unprepared that year. However, last season despite being a known threat, they really picked it up, as evidenced by the fact that Gates' receptions went up and yardage increased considerably despite a drop in TDs (which was expected because Gates set an NFL record with 13 in '04).Brees and Gates both played at the end of the 2003 season, where they had mixed results and then an off-season to prepare for the coming year for a league that wasn't prepared for them. The following season, they took it to another level. Rivers lacks any playing time of note, and even though he may look good in pre-season, he'll be getting much different looks and blitz packages when the real bullets start flying. Please do not discount experience in game situations at the NFL level, particularly at the QB position.
As previously stated by me, having Shea and Manu as options in the passing game will play a factor this year as well. Which has to be factored into Gates production.
Nobody can cover him.
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I won't argue that. I was addressing H.K.'s assertion that Gates will now be covered all the time. Again, why didn't they do that last year? Gates isn't new on the scene anymore. When pressed, it appears if H.K.'s real issue is more about the chemistry (as is yours), which is fine. On that front, I won't argue, although it appears I am not AS concerned.
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H.K.
Footballguy
So far no, which could lead to more than one person doing so, which creates opportunity for others. Like I said, possibly good for the Chargers, but bad for Gates.
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
Ohhh.... but HK disproved that idea. You see when guys have good years, defenses devote extra time and players toward stopping them. That's why you never see WRs or TEs with consecutive great seasons...
H.K.
Footballguy
Not ignoring here, just overlapping responses. Three reasons why Gates won't be #1 TE:1) Inexperience at QB2) Defenses focus on him much more than previously3) Chargers offense has more TE option now, as well as V. Jackson
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I am only concerned with #1, really.#2...Are you saying D's weren't focusing much on him? This is why I threw caution to the wind last year, to no avail. They still couldn't stop him. Why would it take two years to start blanketing him? And LDT is still there, right?#3...Doesn't concern me, maybe a few TD's while the other team isn't looking. You could actually argue that this may help Gates. They certainly aren't going to be spreading the ball around a lot more. No way. Marty will go to his well like he always has.
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LJ Smith had good numbers even when Owens was the deep option in Philly. The loss of McNabb hurt his production.Witten got a huge contract extension. It's not just for being Owens' decoy.
SSOG
Moderator
Agreed. I have Gates well above everyone else on my board, and have consistantly made a case for drafting him in the second round. Heck, I even said he's the #6 player on my board for startup Dynasty drafts. Stud TEs just have such a ridiculously high season-ending VBD and such a ridiculously high success rate. No other position in the entire NFL can even come close to matching the success rate of top-3 preseason TEs.
I'm sorry, but who is playing QB for the Chargers has exactly nothing to do with how open Gates is.
Fixed. Check the game logs. 16/164/0 in 4 games against Bailey, for an average of 4/41/0. The only time he's broke 31 yards against Denver was week 2 last year, when Bailey was nursing a hamstring injury and wasn't even supposed to play that week because he'd separated his shoulder the week before, and was supposed to be out for 2-3 weeks.There really needs to be a Broncos Homer Smiley here.
H.K.
Footballguy
Being open has nothing to do with the ability of the QB to get the ball to him. So he'd still be a stud with JP Losman at the helm? Better yet, go ask Crumpler if it makes a difference.
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Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
I can see your point, and agree to an extent. Rivers is the key now. But when you were saying that D's will now stop him, I don't agree with that. They tried already.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm not disagreeing with that point. You want to make a point that a poor QB hurts Gates' numbers, and I'm fine with that.However, that's not what you said. You said "Gates will be gameplanned by DC's, they'll role coverage his way or double cover him if at all possible. The other TE's will not garner the same attention. Therefore, Gates will not be open, while others will."
When asked why teams didn't do that last year, you said "They tried, but it was much harder to do with an experienced Brees at the helm. He and Gates had a connection."
Now, having a connection with your QB is great and all. I agree that it's a phenominal thing. It doesn't impact how open you get, though. Gates will be just as open this year as he was last. Whether Rivers can deliver the ball remains to be seen, but Gates will be just as open.
H.K.
Footballguy
Along a similar vein, how many of you that think Gates is a slam dunk #1 at FF TE, think the same way about Steve Smith at WR? Do any of you think he'll get more focused coverage that leads to Delhomme making the read and going to Keyshaun as his secondary receiver? Because Rivers will need to recognize coverages and not force to Gates early, or he'll get eaten alive. As a secondary point, if Rivers is successful doing this, others will benefit, not Gates, at least not initially.Again, if I am a DC, I disguise my coverages as best as possible and focus on stopping LT running and Gates in the air. I'll let Rivers try to beat me by going elsewhere.
SSOG
Moderator
No way do I think the same thing about Smiff. The history of production just isn't there.I realize that Gates has only two productive years, but when I talk about the "history of production", I'm not just talking about Antonio Gates, I'm talking about the first TE drafted. The first TE taken has wound up outproducing his draft position (in terms of season-ending VBD) for something like 9 straight years now.
H.K.
Footballguy
I doubt Gates was the first TE drafted in 2004, Gonzo probably was in most leagues.
It's worth mentioning the connection between Rivers and Gates. Probably no two players on the Chargers have a closer connection. They live next to each other and play basketball in the driveway all the time. They eat together. They hang out together. Supposedly the fiercest battles in all of training camp this year are the ping-pong matches between Rivers and Gates.
Whether the off-field connection will translate into an on-field connection remains to be seen. (It's definitely there in practice.) But the off-field connection between Rivers and Gates is very strong.
SSOG
Moderator
Yeah, you're right. I checked, and Gonzo went 4 slots ahead of Gates (31st compared to 35th). Still, Gonzo finished 44th in season-ending VBD, which is still a remarkably strong showing for a player widely considered a "bust" last year.
H.K.
Footballguy
Good info., we'll see if it pans out.It's worth mentioning the connection between Rivers and Gates. Probably no two players on the Chargers have a closer connection. They live next to each other and play basketball in the driveway all the time. They eat together. They hang out together. Supposedly the fiercest battles in all of training camp this year are the ping-pong matches between Rivers and Gates.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Tremblay always coming through with the hard to findIt's worth mentioning the connection between Rivers and Gates. Probably no two players on the Chargers have a closer connection. They live next to each other and play basketball in the driveway all the time. They eat together. They hang out together. Supposedly the fiercest battles in all of training camp this year are the ping-pong matches between Rivers and Gates.
info
FF Maestro
Footballguy
Heath Miller doens't have much of a shot at taking Gates' throne, but based on his ADP I thought his name should at least be dropped in this thread. With there no longer being a clear goal-line back and the departure of Randle El, Miller should easily get more opportunities. 600 yards and 8 TD's is realistic and pretty nice value from his 8th/9th round ADP.
ceo3west
Footballguy
I can see 6-7 TD's max, but no way is the yardage there. Last year he had nine games where he caught less than 30 yards, and he's not exactly the most althletic pass catching TE. He'll be a backup on my squad at best. I'd rather have a guy like Troupe who could be a major factor in the offense.
H.K.
Footballguy
Anyone care to adjust their position on this discussion after Rivers' vapor lock on Gates leading to six the other way?
As I said earlier, read the defense, go to secondary receiver. Rivers has a ton of work to do, Gates has no business beiong ranked as a top 5 TE with an inexperienced QB at the helm.
As I said earlier, read the defense, go to secondary receiver. Rivers has a ton of work to do, Gates has no business beiong ranked as a top 5 TE with an inexperienced QB at the helm.
PahtyTom
Footballguy
Yea I just bumbed Gates down to TE18, Rivers to QB34, and bumped up Dennis Northcutt to WR7
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
18?
Heh. 1 catch 4 yards smells more like WW purgatory. I want no part of that!
I'm glad the Rivers/Gates dynamic has been properly exposed.
Heh. 1 catch 4 yards smells more like WW purgatory. I want no part of that!
I'm glad the Rivers/Gates dynamic has been properly exposed.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
For much of the preseason I had Shockey slightly ahead of Gates in my projections and rankings. But Shockey's concussion (or I should say his LATEST concussion) and the fact that Gates is pretty friggin good 
, I moved him up to TE1 again. I do think it's a mistake to presume Gates is a lock to repeat as TE1 even if he's healthy, and from a value standpoint, I think Shockey and Heap are much better values as I see their year end numbers to be so close to Gates, yet you can draft them a round or two later.
, I moved him up to TE1 again. I do think it's a mistake to presume Gates is a lock to repeat as TE1 even if he's healthy, and from a value standpoint, I think Shockey and Heap are much better values as I see their year end numbers to be so close to Gates, yet you can draft them a round or two later.
H.K.
Footballguy
For much of the preseason I had Shockey slightly ahead of Gates in my projections and rankings. But Shockey's concussion (or I should say his LATEST concussion) and the fact that Gates is pretty friggin good
Rivers looked awful tonight, I've said it as soon as Brees was let go, Gates won't even be top 5. Book it.
He really just had one bad throw. Aside from that, he was 9 for 13 for 75 yards. That's four incompletions -- one was dropped and one was thrown away. And one he got clobbered on as he released it (maybe it should have been ruled a fumble rather than an incompletion). I don't remember what happened on the remaining incompletion, but it's not like Rivers was inaccurate all night. (Even on the INT, the throw was accurate. He just didn't see Urlacher.)Rivers is going to have to work on not giving away where he's going with the ball. He locked on to guys last week as well, but the Packers didn't exploit it. Urlacher did, and other teams will in the regular season. So he's got to work on that.And the OL has to improve its pass-blocking.
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This is exactly what I wrote last year. I blew that one.
Gates ended up being the better value even at the higher draft position.I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote above (or with what I wrote last year). But even correct thinking sometimes ends up wrong in the end, which is part of what makes fantasy football fun (and frustrating).
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I agree on all counts MT. Look, earlier this preseason I was railing against drafting Gates...but once I really looked hard at the situation on a second pass through, I can't argue against his ADP if he lives up to expectations, I just think there are better ways to optimize a team's overall value.WoodrowThis is exactly what I wrote last year. I blew that one.
H.K.
Footballguy
Post 67 of this thread is there for all to see. Read coverage, make progressions, take what the defense gives you. Even the great Phillip Rivers, who can walk on water and part seas, will need to adjust to NFL defenses.
CalBear
Footballguy
9/14 for 75 yards and 1 INT is hardly a debacle.
H.K.
Footballguy
Are you watching? Rivers looks like a deer in the headlights. Granted, the Bears D is very good, but he looked completely over matched.
You will probably say the exact same thing back to me
, but I think you're seeing what you want/expect to see.Aside from the INT, what poor play did Rivers make? I don't think the sack was his fault. And I don't remember any of the incompletions being his fault (although there was one incompletion I can't specifically recall).
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Jason Wood
Zoo York
Well...at that rate he'll only need 700 pass attempts to throw for 3,500 yards
3750 yards.Well...at that rate he'll only need 700 pass attempts to throw for 3,500 yards
H.K.
Footballguy
Um, he's going against a vanilla defense in pre-season, and he has completed more TD passes to the opposition than he has to his own team. The long pass to Floyd was busted play for 21 yards that padded his stats. If the Bears D starters were in at the time, he would have been sacked..or worse.You will probably say the exact same thing back to me
That was a great play by Rivers. If any 21 of his 75 yards tonight were earned, it was those 21 yards.
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H.K.
Footballguy
Was it against the Bears starters? Would it happen in the regular season?
Jason Wood
Zoo York
My bad...used 15 attempts as the divisor. He only needs 653 passing attempts now...3750 yards.Well...at that rate he'll only need 700 pass attempts to throw for 3,500 yards
STEAL OF THE DRAFT!
Now you're talking.
H.K.
Footballguy
MT,In all honesty, are you pleased with his performance?Now you're talking.
ffnut
Footballguy
It's hard not to love Gates like everyone else does but I'd be lying if I didn't say Rivers doesn't scare me from drafting him as early as he will be drafted. Also love Heap and Shockey like others have posted and believe that Shockey is in the best situation of the three since it's unlikely (IMO) that McNair can make it through a full year.
From a value standpoint, I love LJ Smith just like I did last year. Already had one draft where I ended up waiting until the 10th round for my TE and LJ was there for me. I truly believe that he can and will be a top 5 TE as long as McNabb plays all year and you can't beat that in the 10th round! It would take a small miracle for him to be the #1 TE this year but, again, from a value standpoint he's tough to beat.
Just my
From a value standpoint, I love LJ Smith just like I did last year. Already had one draft where I ended up waiting until the 10th round for my TE and LJ was there for me. I truly believe that he can and will be a top 5 TE as long as McNabb plays all year and you can't beat that in the 10th round! It would take a small miracle for him to be the #1 TE this year but, again, from a value standpoint he's tough to beat.
Just my
Pedro Cerrano Fan
Footballguy
Sorry dude, I can't tell when you're talking to me and when you aren't. I just assumed since I'm a clueless noob here you've ignored me.The only argument that you did make to me in support of your position of Gates will not be #1 TE this year is that when TEs have successful years, they do poorly later because the opposition "discovers" them and plans for them next time around. In your theory this causes other players to be targeted and the TE in question will fail to live up to previous years because the ball will be spread around more often then before. Needless to say I find that argument a poor one. If you'd like for me to find statistics showing TEs and WRs that have successful seasons consecutively, I shall, but I think we both know the conclusion - and I won't be doing homework without getting a grade.If now your argument toward me is that Rivers is a poor QB, or that they don't have proper chemistry I'm all ears/eyes. Just don't give poor arguments like the one I cited.Thanks!
No. I think the INT he threw was entirely his fault. I'd also like to see him take more shots down the field instead of dumping to the RB so often, but I can't tell from the TV coverage whether there's anything open.There wasn't much performance to evaluate tonight. He threw only 14 passes, and only a few of them were anything other than routine. The INT was bad. The scramble and completion to Floyd was good. The pass down the field to Krause (which was dropped) looked good to me. The quick slant to McCardell was very nice. The other passes were mostly dump-offs, and were therefore not good or bad, just routine.All in all, I think Rivers generally played okay except for the one bad pass -- but that one bad pass is a symptom of a general tendency to lock onto his guy from the snap, which is something that has to be corrected. So he's got something to work on.That said, I still think he's a near lock for top fifteen as a fantasy QB.MT,In all honesty, are you pleased with his performance?Now you're talking.
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pizzatyme
Footballguy
Only way I see Gates behind another TE in any scoring system is if you get 6 Pts./ Tattoo.Then yes, Shockey is the clear #1.
ETA, I mean before the season starts.
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