One
Not Allowed In Mexico
Gotcha. I thought the 1st post was a reply to mine. You're right, pro-rating his stats is a terrible idea. I'm looking at 1600y 26TD. Anywhere close to that and I'm happy.
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Larry Johnson – Is he your #1? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter PRS Guy
- Start date
Trust me, "big guy" - there is nothing original about this thread or your points. That may sound harsh and like I'm attacking you, but if you use the search function (as suggested by another poster above) you'll see that it's simply a fact. Also, your poll shows that over 54% of those surveyed think Tomlinson should NOT be the number one pick. And guess what that means? Absolutely nothing. As I said above, you can make a case for - or against - any of the "big 3" based on league scoring variables, history, last year's performance, strength of schedule, QB, coaching, etc. etc.A fishing thread? OK...because I disagree with a KC fan on his beloved Chiefs? I'm not fishing at all, and I added plenty of context here that I hadn't seen in other threads. I don't troll here all day everyday- sorry if missed a thread or two along the way. Looking at two groups, the Pool folks and the Staffers, both have put LT #1 overall by differing margins. With a few more votes, LT would be #1 overall by simple majority, with LJ and SA gaining the remaining <50% of the votes here in the pool. The staffers do agree by vast majority that LT should be #1 (10 out of 14). Not sure how that turns the table on me big guy. Thanks for playing.To begin with, this thread is a fishing trip cobbled together from dozens of threads already on the board for the past few months. But, since you hooked me, I'll play along.
Be careful here...you are approaching territory which could lead you to be called nonsensical. Also, KCC et al may have seen something like this posted earlier, which appears to be even more offensive.
You might be onto something though
You don't sound harsh at all, just wrong.Like I said before, the fact that there are three strong candidates (including the back to back incumbent) and one is approaching a simple majority is interesting. Nothing left to debate on that topic.Trust me, "big guy" - there is nothing original about this thread or your points. That may sound harsh and like I'm attacking you, but if you use the search function (as suggested by another poster above) you'll see that it's simply a fact. Also, your poll shows that over 54% of those surveyed think Tomlinson should NOT be the number one pick. And guess what that means? Absolutely nothing. As I said above, you can make a case for - or against - any of the "big 3" based on league scoring variables, history, last year's performance, strength of schedule, QB, coaching, etc. etc.A fishing thread? OK...because I disagree with a KC fan on his beloved Chiefs? I'm not fishing at all, and I added plenty of context here that I hadn't seen in other threads. I don't troll here all day everyday- sorry if missed a thread or two along the way. Looking at two groups, the Pool folks and the Staffers, both have put LT #1 overall by differing margins. With a few more votes, LT would be #1 overall by simple majority, with LJ and SA gaining the remaining <50% of the votes here in the pool. The staffers do agree by vast majority that LT should be #1 (10 out of 14). Not sure how that turns the table on me big guy. Thanks for playing.To begin with, this thread is a fishing trip cobbled together from dozens of threads already on the board for the past few months. But, since you hooked me, I'll play along.
Additionally, 10 of 14 staffers have LT as their number one. Plug that into your abacus homey.
You don't sound harsh at all, just wrong.Like I said before, the fact that there are three strong candidates (including the back to back incumbent) and one is approaching a simple majority is interesting. Nothing left to debate on that topic.Trust me, "big guy" - there is nothing original about this thread or your points. That may sound harsh and like I'm attacking you, but if you use the search function (as suggested by another poster above) you'll see that it's simply a fact. Also, your poll shows that over 54% of those surveyed think Tomlinson should NOT be the number one pick. And guess what that means? Absolutely nothing. As I said above, you can make a case for - or against - any of the "big 3" based on league scoring variables, history, last year's performance, strength of schedule, QB, coaching, etc. etc.A fishing thread? OK...because I disagree with a KC fan on his beloved Chiefs? I'm not fishing at all, and I added plenty of context here that I hadn't seen in other threads. I don't troll here all day everyday- sorry if missed a thread or two along the way. Looking at two groups, the Pool folks and the Staffers, both have put LT #1 overall by differing margins. With a few more votes, LT would be #1 overall by simple majority, with LJ and SA gaining the remaining <50% of the votes here in the pool. The staffers do agree by vast majority that LT should be #1 (10 out of 14). Not sure how that turns the table on me big guy. Thanks for playing.To begin with, this thread is a fishing trip cobbled together from dozens of threads already on the board for the past few months. But, since you hooked me, I'll play along.
Additionally, 10 of 14 staffers have LT as their number one. Plug that into your abacus homey.
Fair enough. Consider it plugged. weasel3515
Footballguy
Will Shields is now out with a high ankle sprain.
Link: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=roto...mp;type=fantasy
Anyone who knows anything about injuries knows this is one of those that lingers the longest. This pretty much dooms LJ now.
Link: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=roto...mp;type=fantasy
Anyone who knows anything about injuries knows this is one of those that lingers the longest. This pretty much dooms LJ now.
Banger
Footballguy
Nothing to worry about, everything is fine. They don't need Shields, they don't need Roaf or Richardson, etc. They still have LJ all is well. (sarcasm)
In all honesty, does this change the projections AT ALL for ANY of the LJ supporters? It sounds like Shields is gone for the rest of the preseason while Edwards is optimistic he'll return for the first game of the regular season. High ankle sprains though from what I understand...usually not good news and take longer than two weeks to heal.
Bush shot up Dodds' rankings because of one carry, while Jordan fell through the floor in the same rankings because of generally poor preseason offensive play. Yet, LJ seems impervious to bad news.
If KC comes out flat again vs. STL this week, will all the supporters still look to stats from 2004 NYJ and 2005 KCC and suggest that things will remain the same?
Banger
Footballguy
It's preseason and nothing matters with regard to LJ.
In all honesty, does this change the projections AT ALL for ANY of the LJ supporters? It sounds like Shields is gone for the rest of the preseason while Edwards is optimistic he'll return for the first game of the regular season. High ankle sprains though from what I understand...usually not good news and take longer than two weeks to heal.
Bush shot up Dodds' rankings because of one carry, while Jordan fell through the floor in the same rankings because of generally poor preseason offensive play. Yet, LJ seems impervious to bad news.
If KC comes out flat again vs. STL this week, will all the supporters still look to stats from 2004 NYJ and 2005 KCC and suggest that things will remain the same?
shadow2k
Footballguy
That's the problem, and part of the reason I don't pay to see anyone else's projections. One carry? Please. And the Raiders looked pretty decent last night from what I understand, as opposed to the "sky is falling" approach before the game. I wonder if the Raiders will all suddenly shoot back up to where they were before...As far as Shields goes, everything I've heard has him being ready for week 1. And now Waters is back. So basically...they're in a better spot than they were in last week's game. Waters takes his guard spot back from Sampson (who was out of place), and Sampson goes back out to RT, benching Black.Instead of:Turley/Bober/Weigman/Sampson/Black It will be:Turley/Bober/Weigman/Waters/Sampson
Last week they were shut out though, so that’s not hard to top.Have you heard high ankle sprain? If so can anyone comment on the healing time for this?
shadow2k
Footballguy
As I told you previously, the first team offense has been shut out in the preseason before. The difference between this year, and others, is that Casey Printers and Jeff Smoker were in for the majority of the game. But yeah, it's easy to just ignore that FACT I guess.If a team got shut out for TWO SERIES in a regular season game...would the sky be falling then as well? How long Shields is out depends on the severity of the sprain. "High Ankle Sprain" could let him return in two weeks for the least severe, or possibly surgery and 10wks + for the most severe. Since they aren't doing anything but immobilizing it (with the boot) and letting him rest, and the fact that they haven't been bringing in extra O-Lineman at this point...I'd be inclined to say that it's not very severe.
I don’t think anyone is implying the sky is falling. I think putting LJ at 3 as I have is anything but that. As I have said before, an additional injury on an offensive line that is already hurting should be cause for concern. If Shields comes right back and plays week one, then no reason to worry and no reason to downgrade LJ any further. If Shield’s might miss the first few weeks of the season, the sky won’t be falling but it will look a little darker to those of us not wearing rose colored glasses.
Not looking so good if Green is hurt as bad as it looks. Did someone mention how bad Huard is?There has been much debate here in the Shark Pool regarding the Chiefs’ off season and ensuing preseason performance. Additionally, most experts and fantasy junkies have come to a general consensus that for 2006, there are three “top tier” running backs: Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson.
What many of us can’t seem to agree on is who should rank #1 overall? FBG’s has had Johnson in the top slot since the first rankings were released back in late May. Many other purveyors of fantasy knowledge seem to agree, helping LJ earn the top ADP slot heading into the season.
While I’ve always respected the knowledge of Dodds and Bryant, I can’t come to grips with this ranking.
Here is a list of changes that have occurred for the Chiefs this off season, and my take on their impact on the Chiefs’ offense:
Vermeil retires
Negative - Herm Edwards is not the offensive guru that Vermeil was, and it’s only reasonable to expect some drop off in offense this season.
Al Saunders goes to Washington
Big Negative – I’ve heard the argument that Mike Solari is going to step in and make a seamless transition from OL Coach to OC. With 18 years NFL experience and zero time spent as an OC, I find this a deplorable statement. Al Saunders worked as WR’s coach and Assistant Head Coach on a Super Bowl winning team in St. Louis, then coached KC’s offense to a #1 rank in yards or scoring for four straight seasons. While Solari may keep the structure of the offense intact, I find it hard to believe that there won’t be any drop off in the offense as Solari learns the nuances of play calling, personnel changes and overall game management.
Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota
Negative – The company line here is that Richardson only played about a third of KC’s possessions last year, and LJ was a beast with or without T Rich. I’ll acknowledge that, but what I can’t dismiss is his locker room presence. His off field abilities are being ignored by the propeller heads that only look at stats. While I’d be willing to ignore losing T Rich if that was KC’s only loss, it’s far from it.
Priest Holmes in limbo
Neutral to Negative - Johnson being the clear #1 through camp is a plus as he’s clearly getting the practice reps with the first team. Frankly though, does he really benefit from this? A bigger issue here is the fact that defensive coordinators all over the league are focusing their efforts on stopping Johnson. This means Johnson will no longer be an unknown, benefiting from some margin of surprise, as D coordinators have watched LJ tape all off season, know him better and will key on his tendencies. Last year, DC’s focused during the off season on stopping Holmes, and didn’t have exorbitant amounts of time to focus on the nuances for slowing down Johnson once the regular season grind was in full force. Unfortunately for Johnson, now they have.
Todd Collins goes to Washington
Big Negative – Big Negative? Pass the crack pipe! Hardly…With the losses to the KC offensive line (yet to be addressed), Trent Green may turn back into TrINT Green from 2001 when he tossed 24 INT’s and only 17 TD’s as he ran for his life. This preseason, Green has clearly been roughed up a bit more than he’s used to. If the unthinkable happens and Green actually gets injured (he’s 36, no spring chicken), KC’s backup QB situation is not pleasant. Damon Huard has earned six starts in his illustrious 10 year NFL career, racking up a whopping 9 TD’s in those 10 seasons. In fact, Huard hasn’t tossed a TD pass since 2000 and has one (1) pass attempt since 2001. While Collins was no Montana, he knew the KC offense well and saw some action over the years (though sparingly).
John Welbourn retires
Negative – While I don’t view this as a critical loss, Welbourn was a starter for the much heralded KC offensive line last year (albeit only 9 games after getting suspended).
Willie Roaf retires
Major Negative - To quote Jason Wood from his Larry Johnson spotlight, “Willie Roaf has announced plans to retire. If he's being honest, this is a major blow to the Chiefs offensive line and is cause enough to bump LJ down behind Tomlinson and Alexander.” While Wood tempers his comments a bit (I’m not going to post $ content in its entirety) stating that he feels Roaf will return, I think that’s a significant bet. The fact is that Roaf is an unknown. You discount players because of factors such as this, not overlook or ignore them. Roaf has been spreading the news on national sports talk radio that he has no plans to return for 2006. If he’s posturing only for the benefit of skipping camp, why tell the national media that he won’t return? Why not just keep ignoring teammates and the media and show up in the last week of camp?
Defense should be improved
Positive - Peterson acquires Ty Law, hires Herm Edwards to improve D and goes “D” crazy in the draft. While Tamba Hali hasn’t done squat in camp, KC’s D should be better than last year’s D. If this is the case, the offense may have a shorter field to work with and benefit from more possessions. I personally think the D will suck yet again, but we’ll see.
Other points to consider:
According to FBG’s, KC is presented with the 3rd most difficult rushing schedule in the league with 7 weeks categorized as tough, and only 2 easy matchups. Additionally, the Chief’s rushing schedule exhibits the biggest change of any team’s when comparing the difficulty of last year’s vs. this year’s. In other words, no other team’s rushing schedule got more difficult from last year’s to this year’s than KC’s. This simply can’t be good if we are to trust/consider FBG’s research…
LaDainian Tomlinson has finished as the #3 RB for four straight seasons. While this may not be a good reason to put him atop your rankings, it seems logical to use the first pick in the draft on someone that you can count on to finish near the top high year in and year out. Call it the Peyton Manning theory. While Manning has never finished as the #1 QB in his illustrious career, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 4 since 1999. Trying to pick THE top QB seems to be much more challenging than picking Manning to finish top 3 and having that work out. The first pick in the draft should be as near a sure thing as possible. Both Manning and Tomlinson exhibit the qualities that you want in your “sure thing” picks at their relative positions, with low variance in their pre and post season ranks.
Additionally, San Diego returns 21 of 22 starters from last year. While Brees was a big loss, that’s ONE big loss for Tomlinson vs. six to eight for Johnson, depending on which you’ll accept.
Alternatively, Shaun Alexander also must be considered for the 1 overall pick. His performance last year was nothing short of amazing, making him the top RB in fantasy football for two years in a row. Alexander hasn’t finished out of the top 6 fantasy backs in five seasons. That’s impressive. Downside concerns here are the loss of Hutchison, workload the past three seasons and the fact that he “got paid.”
Summary-
Johnson has the following “negatives” working against him in 2006:
1. Vermeil retires - Negative
2. Al Saunders goes to Washington – Big Negative
3. Tony Richardson goes to Minnesota – Negative
4. Todd Collins to Washington - Big Negative
5. John Welbourn retires - Negative
6. Willie Roaf retires – “Major” Negative - *And reason ALONE to drop LJ to 3 per Jason Wood
7. Strength of Schedule and change in schedule difficulty among worst in NFL - Big Negative
Tomlinson is as much of a sure thing as you’ll get at RB in the NFL. He’s finished in the top three for four straight years, and has little reason (one) not to pull it off again. He’s my number one.
Alexander’s record speaks for itself. If you believe that the loss of Hutch and his new contract are reasons enough to put Alexander behind LT, I can’t argue. I think Alexander is arguably the most boring bad ### fantasy back I’ve ever seen, but he finds a way to win a lot of fantasy owners a lot of jack every year. He’s my number two.
Johnson is a beast. He runs mad as hell and he’s got major wheels for a back his size. I personally enjoy watching Johnson more than any of the “big three.” That said there are so many negatives surrounding him it simply seems like a sucker bet to take him above the other two backs. He may very well pull it off, but he’s running into a headwind that the other backs just don’t seem to have. Add that to the fact that LT and SA have done it for years, I have to put Johnson as my number three.
Even with the questions surrounding him, I would NOT let him slip below three however.
One final point…
To use an example from investing, consider this:
I’ll offer to give you:
A. Somewhere between $275 and $325
B. $300 guaranteed
Which would you choose?
The answer is what makes Manning the top picked QB and Tomlinson the top picked RB season after season. While not a perfect correlation to fantasy football, you should always take option B. Why? The average expected return for either gift is $300, ($325 + $275 / 2 = $300) and $300 = $300, meaning both yield the same expected return. One however is risk free while the other clearly isn’t. If you are rational, you should always take the lower risk investment to the higher risk investment if both yield the same average expected return.
You may argue that Tomlinson, Alexander and Johnson don’t yield the same expected fantasy points for the upcoming season, but most seem to have them close. You may feel Johnson offers tremendous upside the others don't possess. With all the negatives stacked in his path to fantasy greatness, I simply can’t agree.
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
The dreaded week 1 bump.
I'll be able to bump this all season. Thanks for stopping by.Same time same place next week?
Fla\/\/ed
Footballguy
jonessed
Footballguy
You bumped thread recommending a RB that has 40 yards over one that has 140? What exactly have you proven here?
You think I should bump it sooner? Thanks, I was thinking the same thing...
I've proven nothing. I suggested that LJ won't be the #1 back for a variety of reasons, several of which came to light today.
Great defense? You're a joke...seriously.
Legion of Doom
Footballguy
The Jacket
Footballguy
This bump is a joke.
Alexander couldn't succeed against the Lions with Matt Hasselbeck as his QB; imagine what he'd do with Damon byGod Huard.
Alexander couldn't succeed against the Lions with Matt Hasselbeck as his QB; imagine what he'd do with Damon byGod Huard.
RBM
Footballguy
Very similar to when Jamal opened his season against Cleveland the year after he destroyed them en route to his 2000 yd season. Bengals had the whole offseason to think about LJ rolling over them en route to over 200 yards in the finale last year. Clev stuffed Jamal that day and Cincy did a real good job against LJ today
If I wanted a back to put up yards with a good dose of receptions but WITHOUT TD's, I'd have taken Bush. We'll see what he does next week with Huard in there the whole game. Keep laughing and posting your.. Lose your starting QB on top of what you mentioned and still put up the yards.. But ya, you are right he will suck this year so keep bumping.
Just make sure you show up here every week.Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
LJ's performance if anything makes me feel even better... He had a good game in a blowout..
The Jacket
Footballguy
Raiders Fan
The Black Hole
It's called week one.. Teams have no film on what each team is like week 1.. It is a lot harder to come up with a game plan not know each teams weakness. Look at years past week 1's.. I know the 1st week in fantasy is usually very low scoring. The fact he still racked up the yards in a blowout is a good sign he will get the ball one way or another. Pass or Run.That's his lowest fantasy point total since week 8 of last season. If that makes you feel better, more power to you.Raiders Fan said:
Should Alexander owners sell low as well?That's his lowest fantasy point total since week 8 of last season. If that makes you feel better, more power to you.Raiders Fan said:
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
This bump was stupid. Just a guy trying to spin his own wheels.
Remember last year's week 1 ?
Tomlinson 19c 72yds 1TD - roughly 16 pts in an average PPR
Alexander 14c 73yds 0TD - roughly 9 pts in an average PPR
Then on a weekend where Alexander throws up 51 yds some ######'s trying to rip on Larry Johnson?
give it a rest. ...if your "brilliant" thread needed a bump somebody else would have bumped it. If you need to bring any more attention to yourself go pole dance... at least that way you'll win some money.
Remember last year's week 1 ?
Tomlinson 19c 72yds 1TD - roughly 16 pts in an average PPR
Alexander 14c 73yds 0TD - roughly 9 pts in an average PPR
Then on a weekend where Alexander throws up 51 yds some ######'s trying to rip on Larry Johnson?
give it a rest. ...if your "brilliant" thread needed a bump somebody else would have bumped it. If you need to bring any more attention to yourself go pole dance... at least that way you'll win some money.
Hmm, who are you again? I’ll keep bumping it all season because it’s a well thought out thread and it looks to be accurate. Not to mention, it’s enjoyable to watch people stare right at the truth and deny it—while being very convincing doing so. All of the LJ backers stated that Solari would just take over where Saunders left off—a seamless transition of sorts.This appears not to be the case:
OOOPS! No worries though guys, Yudkin will stop by any minute and post stats from the 2002 season to make things better. The O line is bad, REAL bad and it’s not getting better until Roaf returns, which may never happen.I said that a MAJOR concern was the potential loss of Green, and it’s time to be concerned. All of you that think Huard played pretty well in relief of Green couldn’t have seen the game. He had two fumbles and looked lost on another 5+ plays. Denver is going to destroy him next week, taking LJ with him. I think it’s pretty danged funny that there are so many of you who say this thread has no validity and that it’s a joke. It might be a joke, but the joke is on you. The writing was on the wall, just some of you failed to read it. See you next Sunday!
Legion of Doom
Footballguy
I don't agree with your entire post,but I see your reasoning for your initial post.It was a good post
That said,it is week one and way too early for you to be bumping your own thread/chest. Act like you've done this before. 
snogger
Footballguy
19 Points from LJ in one of my leagues..
SA?? 5
Guess I better drop SA to the waivers. The guy lost his Left Guard and just doesn't have it any more evidenced by the first week.
Oh, and because I think you might be a tad bit slow on catching on..
That last part was
and to add.. Nice
SA?? 5
Guess I better drop SA to the waivers. The guy lost his Left Guard and just doesn't have it any more evidenced by the first week.
Oh, and because I think you might be a tad bit slow on catching on..
That last part was
and to add.. Nice
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
LOL . . . Johnson in this supposed disaster of a game is currently on track for 2,368 total yards THIS YEAR.Losing Green won't help his cause production wise per touch, but it may get him the ball more both in terms of total rushes and receptions if the team goes into a simple offense with fewer plays. He might not see as many TD opportunities with Green out, but I would hardly think LJ will be a dud.And to those that will want to derail him more after next week, I'm already agreeing that he will not have a great week next week as opposing RBs don't fare well in Denver 98% of the time to begin with.
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
no joke, I thought the first post was a good one. Now.. I see the guy doesn't have a clue and just likes to hear himself talk. He probably just took it off another board.but I see your reasoning for your initial post.It was a good post
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I'd place pretty good money on this thread being locked by week 4.
glumpy
breeze
They follow with SF and 'zona though which ought to give a chance to redeem themselves. I do have LJ as my #1--but getting him at the fourth pick made that a nobrainer anyway...
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
I'm having trouble with why folks feel that L.J.'s performance was less than adequate [or the O-Line for that matter].
L.J. finished with this stat line:
17 Rushes
68 Rushing Yards
4.00 Yards per Rush
0 Rushing TD's
5 Receptions
80 Receiving Yards
16.00 Yards per Reception
0 Receiving TD's
How can you complain about a 148 yard performance though? Although it is certainly not his typical 27 Fantasy Point outting, I would take this performance each week.
L.J. finished with this stat line:
17 Rushes
68 Rushing Yards
4.00 Yards per Rush
0 Rushing TD's
5 Receptions
80 Receiving Yards
16.00 Yards per Reception
0 Receiving TD's
How can you complain about a 148 yard performance though? Although it is certainly not his typical 27 Fantasy Point outting, I would take this performance each week.
Fla\/\/ed
Footballguy
We can only hope!!
