Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
In a comeback effort DUNGY chose to have Addai on the field. I'd say that is a very telling sign of growing confidence in Addai over Rhodes when the game is on the line.
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Anybody else think Joseph Addai is going to be a bust? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Thumper
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my man otis
Footballguy
All else being equal I think the fact that Addai is in on passing downs makes him more valuable than Rhodes now.
He is:
- Getting playing time "down the stretch"
- The receptions from the Indy RB position, and
- Gets the job of protecting Manning on passing downs over Rhodes.
He is:
- Getting playing time "down the stretch"
- The receptions from the Indy RB position, and
- Gets the job of protecting Manning on passing downs over Rhodes.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Choosing the rook over the vet to protect the franchise is a pretty darned telling sign to me.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think that's an important factor, however. Rhodes was likely kept around and remain the starter until/with the hopes that Addai could handle the job. While Rhodes has played well, it's not like he's far surpassing the rookie a la Thomas Jones/Benson. If it's generally even, I think that Addai will slowly garner more and more of the load providing he can continue to move the chains AND protect Manning.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Good point, zamboni - to rephrase: if Rhodes can't distinguish himself as a runner or pass catcher, the team's interests go to playing Addai more.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Why? They're 4-0 with the two splitting carries.
bostonfred
Footballguy
OK. What urgency do you think the Colts have to work Addai in more often? Do you think it will happen in the next month? By the end of the regular season? During their playoff game? Or next year once Rhodes is either resigned or gone in free agency?
Texican
Footballguy
Both have looked good in their roles IMO.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Or maybe Rhodes was nicked up. Or maybe the plays they were calling were better suited to Addai's skillsets. Or maybe Rhodes will get more first half carries, and Addai will get more second half carries. In other words, does that growing confidence translate into fantasy value?
sheetstainer
Footballguy
can you imagine michael turner coming over to the colts next yr in free agency. now that would be one f'n scary offense.
Texican
Footballguy
Turner isn't going anywhere next year
zamboni
Footballguy
You're right - there's probably no urgency - if it ain't broke, Dungy probably won't fix it. It just seems that Addai brings a bit more to the table and may be hard to keep off the field.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Yes - as I pointed out above, it was definitively indicative of TBell's expanded role for the Donkeys.I think it speaks the same for the Colts - both teams have traditionally had a feature back. In Dungy's case, Edge was phenomenal at pass blocking and pass catching.Addai is a better pass catcher/receiver.Addai was on the field during the comeback effort.Addai has made the bigger "game changing" plays.Addai is charged with protecting the franchise on pass plays.I am not saying anything authoritatively, but I think the SIGNS are there that Dungy is showing more confidence in Addai than Rhodes. And Manning will be more reliant on Addai than Rhodes. See it as you wish. As of this week, I certainly saw this staying RBBC for a while. But, the more I look at the two backs' usage and their usage at different parts of the games, the more convinced I am that the writing is on the wall for Dungy to first announce Addai as the starter and then, within a few weeks, for Addai to be the feature back.Rhodes will have a role, and he will vulture some important carries from Addai, but I think Addai will be the team's feature back by week 8.
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Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I think Colston has that honor on lockdown right now.Colston will have to get hurt or REALLY fall off production wise - and Addai wil have to put up a lot of 100 yard rushing days from here on out - for ROY to go to Addai over Colston.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
Maroney.
switz
Footballguy
I didn't realize ONLY the first five possessions mattered.In all seriousness, the only ones who don't see Addai coming on are Rhodes owners, many of whom thought they had the steal of the draft.
packersfan
Footballguy
Rhodes is Top 20 in standard scoring leagues despite splitting time with Addai. Depending on where you drafted him he could be one of the best value picks of the early going. Now Addai is definitely coming on and I agree he could become the main ballcarrier in the second half of the season but so far Rhodes has done pretty well from a fantasy perspective.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I see it the same way. I don't own either player, but I am interested in this positional battle.Rhodes is a solid vet, but I don't think he will ever be the starter as long as Addai is healthy. I don't think Addai is at the same level as DeAngelo Williams or Laurence Maroney. But he doesn't have to be at that level to succeed with the Colts. If I had both these guys on my team and had to keep only one, it'd be Addai with no reservations.
Texican
Footballguy
Yes, Rhodes has actually outscored Addai by 2 points this season in our league. I do think Addai is coming on, but I just do not think Rhodes will be phased totally out. Only time will tell though. Yes, I have Rhodes as my RB5. I would trade him away, but I can't even give him away right now. Everyone is waiting for Addai. Meanwhile I plugged Rhodes in the last week to fill in for my byes (my starting RB's byes are all over now) and I was very happy with his production.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I definitely see a role for Rhodes even if Addai starts outplaying the vet. You have to think that Rhodes would still be valuable as a change of pace and near the goalline.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Like I have said a couple times now - I thikn this will work out to Addai being the feature back, but Rhodes will be a vulture (as opposed to a straight RBBc, which is what it has been so far).
Rhodes will get work, even if Addai gets the main load.
In response to the initial poster, no, Addai does not look like he is a bust.
Rhodes will get work, even if Addai gets the main load.
In response to the initial poster, no, Addai does not look like he is a bust.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I didn't say that only the first five possessions mattered. Nor do I believe that the late possessions matter as much as Addai supporters seem to think. At least, not necessarily. It's valuable to look at the flow of the game. It seems like Rhodes got more carries early and did better with them. It seems like Addai got more carries as the game went on, and had some good carries. Rhodes also had good carries late in the game, and it was arguably his best game of the year.
I don't think you can say that Addai's coming on without saying that Rhodes also appears to be coming on, and I'm not sure either is correct. So far, the Colts running game hasn't looked good. It looked really good against the Jets, who have a bad run D. It seems like both backs have the confidence of the coaching staff, and both backs did about equally well over the course of the game, with Addai doing better late and Rhodes doing better early.
I haven't heard anything from the Colts to say that they're looking for one feature back anytime soon, I don't think they have any reason to be unhappy with what they got out of their RBBC this week, and they're 4-0 the way things are right now. If anything, the issue isn't that Rhodes owners "don't see Addai coming on", but that Addai owners (and fantasy players in general) usually tend to see the rookie coming on faster than he really is.
I own both, in different leagues. I don't have a vested interest in seeing one do better than the other, since it will help me in one league, and hurt me in another. About the worst thing that could happen for me would be to see RBBC all year, but right now, it seems to me that it's headed that way. Maybe Addai will take on a greater role, but I just don't see any evidence to support the idea that Rhodes will be relegated to vulture status.
Todem
Footballguy
I am a Rhodes owner, however I drafted him as a RB3 with the chance of upside to RB2. That is not going to happen. Addai appears to be gaining more confidence and the staff is also phasing him in more and more. I do think both backs did a great job against the Jets. I don't think Rhodes has done anything to lose his status but he has done nothing to seperate himself from Addai.
I see it as an RBBC for this season and if Addai continues to develop he will obviously be the teams feature back next season. I don't think Addai is anywhere near the skill level of Bush, Maroney or Williams but he does what the Colts need him to do. To me I still think it remains to be seen if he can carry the load every week and be durable in that role.
I think the Colts are doing a good job of having the spilt and always having a fresh set of legs. It remains to be seen if they can continue running well because other than the Jet's game it has been below average.
Addai has suprised me because I did not view him as a feature back in this league. So far I am impressed at the job he has done in this very complex offense
I see it as an RBBC for this season and if Addai continues to develop he will obviously be the teams feature back next season. I don't think Addai is anywhere near the skill level of Bush, Maroney or Williams but he does what the Colts need him to do. To me I still think it remains to be seen if he can carry the load every week and be durable in that role.
I think the Colts are doing a good job of having the spilt and always having a fresh set of legs. It remains to be seen if they can continue running well because other than the Jet's game it has been below average.
Addai has suprised me because I did not view him as a feature back in this league. So far I am impressed at the job he has done in this very complex offense
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meanjoegreen
Footballguy
I don't think either will be the feature back this year. Dungy playing them both is working, and it keeps them fresh too. I doubt it will be RBBC next year, but this year I don't see it changing unless one of them gets hurt.Like I have said a couple times now - I thikn this will work out to Addai being the feature back, but Rhodes will be a vulture (as opposed to a straight RBBc, which is what it has been so far).Rhodes will get work, even if Addai gets the main load.In response to the initial poster, no, Addai does not look like he is a bust.
Significant Shrinkage
Footballguy
very
This analysis is spot on. I was hoping by week 6-7 that Addai would be "the guy". I'm now thinking that is wishful thinkingI don't think either will be the feature back this year. Dungy playing them both is working, and it keeps them fresh too. I doubt it will be RBBC next year, but this year I don't see it changing unless one of them gets hurt.
I think this is the key here. Having watched all 4 games, there seems to me to be a clear difference between the 2. Every time I see Rhodes carry the ball I keep wondering what Addai would have done with it had he been in the game. I think Dungy believes Addai could carry the running game just like Edge did, but he wants to save him so he's fresh well past the 12 games he's used to playing in a year.
IMO Addai has looked good in 3 of 4 games (the 1 bad was a total lack of opportunity), while Rhodes has looked good in 1 of 4 (horrible in the other 3). I expect the percent of running plays that go to Addai to increase over the last half of the season, but I don't expect it to go over 60%.
I think this is the key here. Having watched all 4 games, there seems to me to be a clear difference between the 2. Every time I see Rhodes carry the ball I keep wondering what Addai would have done with it had he been in the game. I think Dungy believes Addai could carry the running game just like Edge did, but he wants to save him so he's fresh well past the 12 games he's used to playing in a year.
IMO Addai has looked good in 3 of 4 games (the 1 bad was a total lack of opportunity), while Rhodes has looked good in 1 of 4 (horrible in the other 3). I expect the percent of running plays that go to Addai to increase over the last half of the season, but I don't expect it to go over 60%.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Having been at 2 of the 4 games, and watched the other two, my assessment is that Addai is much the more complete back. I think Rhodes is getting the start due to a committment from Dungy. He is loyal to his players almost to a fault.
Addai is much more explosive. Especially in the passing game.
Addai will continue to absorb more of the opportunities. I look for the ratio to become more towards 70/30 Addai with the Colts upcoming schedule.
There are some very tough games on tap. @ Denver, @ NE, @ Dallas, Washington, @ Jax. This will lead to more reliance on the passing game and therefore Addai.
Addai is much more explosive. Especially in the passing game.
Addai will continue to absorb more of the opportunities. I look for the ratio to become more towards 70/30 Addai with the Colts upcoming schedule.
There are some very tough games on tap. @ Denver, @ NE, @ Dallas, Washington, @ Jax. This will lead to more reliance on the passing game and therefore Addai.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
??I am not seeing Rhgodes' performance being "horrible"
Would like to know why you think he was horrible -and if he WAS horrible, don't you think Dungy would want to put Addai in there more often saince Addai's been playing well?
I thikn Rhodes has played well enough, but Addai has played better.
Otis
Footballguy
Addai has not run off with the job yet, but he hasn't busted either. He seems to be pretty good. I think the best things he has going for him are (1) Rhodes just isn't an exceptional talent -- he is decent, and (2) Addai was selected in the first round -- presumably for a reason.
I owned Rhodes in my main leagues previously, and recently decided he was near worthless in a small league. I think going forward Addai is clearly the guy you want to have, although the changing of the guard appears to be happening a bit more slowly than some had anticipated. But, ultimately, you have to think Addai will at least have that opportunity, considering his first-round draft status.
I owned Rhodes in my main leagues previously, and recently decided he was near worthless in a small league. I think going forward Addai is clearly the guy you want to have, although the changing of the guard appears to be happening a bit more slowly than some had anticipated. But, ultimately, you have to think Addai will at least have that opportunity, considering his first-round draft status.
In an 8 team dynasty where we can carry 5 RB and start either 2 or 3, I had LJ, Portis, FWP, Rhodes and Lendale White. I dropped Rhodes for Norwood this week. My feeling was that Rhodes would not start for me and he is surely on his way out as the starter. On the other hand Norwood could be the guy next year for the falcons. Dunn can't last forever CAN HE?
You can look at the stats from the first 3 games where he averaged 2.6 YPC - to me that's pretty horrible. But that's really not why I said that. I said it because there are numerous times where he just doesn't seem to see the hole, isn't patient for his blockers (especially on stretch plays), and gets tackled way too easily by arm tackles. I know these observations are somewhat subjective and I don't know if you're watching every play, but that's the way I see it. He has also missed the blitz pickup a few times and I have yet to see Addai do that. Only thing that has been an improvement for Rhodes this year has been that he's held onto the ball (my guess is that he was more prone to losing in the past due to inactivity).I'm not sure why you think Rhodes has played well enough. Have you watched all the games? Or do you think that simply because he has more fantasy points than Addai? (this is not meant as a dig)
As for why Dungy would still be playing Rhodes more, I gave my reason for that in the first post. I think that Dungy doesn't want Addai to wear down. I would characterize Rhodes as servicable, and I think Dungy will use him as such. After the bye, I think you'll see more and more of Addai, but as I said earlier, I don't expect it to be more than a 60/40 thing this year.
Routilla
Footballguy
mektarus
Footballguy
Some people seem to be concerned or confused as to why Addai hasn't separated himself more definitively from Rhodes at this point, but we need to keep in mind that this kid is a rookie who has played 4 games in one of the most complex offenses in the NFL. I think he has caught on remarkably quickly. And I think the fact that he has already become the preferred back on passing downs really does speak volumes to his future in this system. For the record, I own both Rhodes and Addai and as flex players I have been quite happy with their production. However, I do think that by wk 10 -12 Addai will be the feature back. I just think that going into the playoffs Dungy would prefer to rely on one back as opposed to a rbbc. Just my 2 cents.
my man otis
Footballguy
Anyone else check out his ranking in the offensive projections just released?
Otis
Footballguy
my man otis
Footballguy
It's honestly tempting but I just can't get myself to bench my RB2 for Addai this week. Or some RB1s...since I start 2 RBs only he's on the bench. Might regret it tough as I actually can see the huge week.Otis said:my man otis said:Anyone else check out his ranking in the offensive projections just released?
RoosterScott
Footballguy
The writing is on the wall for Rhodes....
3.2 ypc vs 4.5 ypc (Addai, the better player)
5 receptions vs 11 receptions (Addai, the better player)
I expect an announcement soon from Coach Dungy stating that Addai will be the starter from here on out. Especially now that Corey Simon is lost and teams are trying to play keep away from Manning and O. Dungy will look to feature a more ball controlled offense like he did last week in the first half vs the Jets. Give his defense a chance to rest.
3.2 ypc vs 4.5 ypc (Addai, the better player)
5 receptions vs 11 receptions (Addai, the better player)
I expect an announcement soon from Coach Dungy stating that Addai will be the starter from here on out. Especially now that Corey Simon is lost and teams are trying to play keep away from Manning and O. Dungy will look to feature a more ball controlled offense like he did last week in the first half vs the Jets. Give his defense a chance to rest.
You can't reach that conclusions based on ypc alone. More sophisticated analysis rates them about equal in the running game.I think it's safe to say that Dungy isn't looking for the same thing that ff players are. Remember, Addai had a very good game in week 2 (16-82-1, compared to only 14-37-1 for Rhodes), then got only three carries in week 3. So the situation is a lot more complex than people are making it out to be.
my man otis
Footballguy
I personally don't think he's going to officially announce it, only for it to be gradual. And by Addai taking over I expect more of a 70/30 or 65/35 split more than Rhodes being left out completely.The only issue I see is if the Colts keep winning and Dungy doesn't want to mess w/ the formula. That would = pure RBBC all season long IMO.
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