Smathers Dynasty RB ranking (1 Viewer)

Did my first rendition a few days ago and thought I'd post it here. I didn't put in any other rookies than AP and Lynch and will wait on the second tier rookie RBs till a later point in time but thought I'd put this out to have it booted around and get feedback.

Update. January 7th 2007 (first 07 rendition)

1 – Ladanian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers

2 - Larry Johnson Kansas City Chiefs

3- Steven Jackson St. Louis Rams

4 - Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks

5 - Frank Gore SF 49ers

6 – Ronnie Brown Miami Dolphins

7 - Brian Westbrook Philadelphia Eagles

8 - Willie Parker Steelers

9 - Rudi Johnson Cincinati Bengals

10 - Willis McGahee Buffalo Bills

11 - Maurice Jones Drew Jacksonville

12 - Adrian Peterson ?

13 - Lawrence Maroney Pats

14 – Reggie Bush Saints

15 - Joseph Addai Indy

16 - Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

17 - Chester Taylor Minny

18 - Kevin Jones Detroit Lions

19 – Julius Jones Dallas Cowboys

20 - Cedric Benson Chicago Bears

21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos

22 - Deuce McAllister New Orleans Saints

23 - Marshawn Lynch ?

24 - DeAngelo Williams, Lina

25 - Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Bucs

26 - Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens

27 - Brandon Jacobs NYG

28 - Thomas Jones, Chicago Bears

29 - Travis Henry Titans

30 - Ladell Betts Skins

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons

32 - Warrick Dunn Falcons

33 - Lamont Jordan Oakland

34 – Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys

35 - Michael Turner SD

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville

37 - Mike Bell Denver

38 - Edge James Arizona

39 - Reuben Droughns

40 – Lendale White Titans

41 - Ahman Green

42 - Leon Washington NYJ

43 - Corey Dillion NE

44 - DeShuan Foster Lina

45 - Justin Fargas OAK

46 - ***Ricky Williams MIA

47 - Chris Brown Titans

48 - Ron Dayne Texans

49 - Dominic Rhodes Indy

50 - Chris Perry Bengals

51 - Cedric Houston NYJ

52 - Brian Calhoun Det

53 - Correll Buckhalter PHI

54 - Maurice Morris SEA

55 - Gregg Jones JAX

56 - Kevan Barlow NYJ

57 - Ryan Moats PHI

58 - Mike Anderson BAL

59 - Najeh Davenport PIT

60 - TJ Duckett WAS

***I think Ricky will be back in MIA next year

#Assuming Tiki Barber New York Giants is/remains retired

I could effectively argue a few cases but overall this looks reasonable having explained the missing second tier rooks but I feel I'm missing someone or that someone can make a solid case against a ranking or two so have at it.

nice, about time someone put Drew ahead of Peterson...sidenote...Drew is 2 days younger than Peterson plus has one yr under his belt....16 tds

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.

I would like you to talk about two rankings...

21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos

35 - Michael Turner SD

Any subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

Nice, but I can't beleive that Portis is a second tier RB. He's a top 10 back with top 5 talent. Look at his numbers this past season while he was banged up and combine that with Betts numbers and the WAS running was very solid. The only way Portis does not make a top 10 finish is if he's not healthy, which is what you might be saying here with a #16 ranking.

Portis 127-523-7-4.1

Betts 245-1154-4-4.7

Total 372-1677-11-4.5

Translates into 233.7 points (only rushing) and would have him finish #8 in my leauge (without receiving).

Sigmund Bloom said:

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.I would like you to talk about two rankings...21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos35 - Michael Turner SDAny subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

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My rankings aren't personal or T-Bell would rank lower. His production has been steady the last two years in a very unsecure envirionment in Denver. I would imagine Shanny would like to keep him as his big play threat/thrid down back and bring in someone like a Mike Bush to cement into the Bus/Corey Dillion goal line RB which is fast becoming a standard piece of any top performing offense. Mike Bell is nice and all but a big goal line threat is missing in Denver in my humble-O.The Burner looks fantastic but I don't think Marty is eager to let him walk even if Micheal is itching to start somewhere. I've heard G-Men are interested but they have Jacobs. Their is a RB glut in the league and their are a few good RBs coming in this year and scads on-deck for next year so if Turner is going to leave his options are limited at this point in time to a few choice destinations and some incumbents would have to make way so at this point in time I see a very talented RB but for dynasty rankings situation is critical and right now he's behind LdT and that doesn't bode well in my humble opinion. Haven't seen the FBGs rankings and based these primarily off of my previous rankings from last year.

Rounders said:

Nice, but I can't beleive that Portis is a second tier RB. He's a top 10 back with top 5 talent. Look at his numbers this past season while he was banged up and combine that with Betts numbers and the WAS running was very solid. The only way Portis does not make a top 10 finish is if he's not healthy, which is what you might be saying here with a #16 ranking.

Portis 127-523-7-4.1

Betts 245-1154-4-4.7

Total 372-1677-11-4.5

Translates into 233.7 points (only rushing) and would have him finish #8 in my leauge (without receiving).

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You read why I have Clinton ranked lower. I do not feel he's going to be 100% and LaDell was able to pry open his crack of opportunity into a long term contract with the Skins so I think he'll take further advantage of his upcoming oppurtinity next year as I feel Clinton will not be totally healthy and/or rusty up against a RB who averaged 30 carries over a four game stretch this year and some have overlooked Betts. They way wish to take a second look, I'm sure Gibbs did when he signed him to a long term contract before he could test the free agent market.

good posting. One name that sticks out is Marion Barber. I think he deserves a little higher ranking. I think most folks starting a dynasty draft would probably pick him over Warrick Dunn, Norwood, Travis Henry, and probably over Julius Jones also.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.I would like you to talk about two rankings...21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos35 - Michael Turner SDAny subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

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I'm not really sure how you can have Turner ranked in your top 30.It's unlikely he's starting for anyone next year. The RB class this year is pretty deep. Is someone really going to give up a 1st and 3rd for Turner? LT is over 2,000 carries, and keeping his fresh is of main concern. I don't see SD trading him for less then a 1st, and I don't see anyone giving that up.So to rank him in your top 30, you're talking 900 yards 5 tds next year for Turner? At least? I don't see how 1/2 of that is possible. Based on what we know now, Turner will be a backup in 2007. And Turner is still unproven. How high were people on Morris last spring? Woops?On a RB who's likely to be a backup in 2007, who's largely unproven (Jordan has come back to earth, and he's the poster boy for the backup RB changing teams to become a stud). To justify a top 25 ranking, I'd like to see what you project for his stats, and where. Putting Turner at 2,500 yards, 22 tds over the next 3 years is very questionable. And that's probably as low as you can do for where you have Turner ranked. Guys like Barber,Edge are a lock for, who you have ranked lower. Barber 15ish TDs this year, and he's ranked lower then Turner? Ehh? Guys like TJ/JJ, I can easily see them having more production over the next 3 then Turner. Jacobs? Dwill? White? I just don't see Turner getting as many carries in 07 as most of your 22-35 RBs. The way things are going with LT (doesn't even play in preseason) I don't see them letting Turner leave cheaply. And I don't see someone paying even just 1 st for him. SA at 28 couldn't even get a 2nd rnd pick in return. Teams just don't pay big for RBs, let alone unproven backups.

Rounders said:

Nice, but I can't beleive that Portis is a second tier RB. He's a top 10 back with top 5 talent. Look at his numbers this past season while he was banged up and combine that with Betts numbers and the WAS running was very solid. The only way Portis does not make a top 10 finish is if he's not healthy, which is what you might be saying here with a #16 ranking.Portis 127-523-7-4.1Betts 245-1154-4-4.7Total 372-1677-11-4.5Translates into 233.7 points (only rushing) and would have him finish #8 in my leauge (without receiving).

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Agreed. He's the one that really jumped out at me. He's definitely on my radar since a lot of people will be scared off by Betts. A couple others I thought were low were A. Green and MB3.

billyjoe said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.I would like you to talk about two rankings...21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos35 - Michael Turner SDAny subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

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I'm not really sure how you can have Turner ranked in your top 30.It's unlikely he's starting for anyone next year. The RB class this year is pretty deep. Is someone really going to give up a 1st and 3rd for Turner? LT is over 2,000 carries, and keeping his fresh is of main concern. I don't see SD trading him for less then a 1st, and I don't see anyone giving that up.So to rank him in your top 30, you're talking 900 yards 5 tds next year for Turner? At least? I don't see how 1/2 of that is possible. Based on what we know now, Turner will be a backup in 2007. And Turner is still unproven. How high were people on Morris last spring? Woops?On a RB who's likely to be a backup in 2007, who's largely unproven (Jordan has come back to earth, and he's the poster boy for the backup RB changing teams to become a stud). To justify a top 25 ranking, I'd like to see what you project for his stats, and where. Putting Turner at 2,500 yards, 22 tds over the next 3 years is very questionable. And that's probably as low as you can do for where you have Turner ranked. Guys like Barber,Edge are a lock for, who you have ranked lower. Barber 15ish TDs this year, and he's ranked lower then Turner? Ehh? Guys like TJ/JJ, I can easily see them having more production over the next 3 then Turner. Jacobs? Dwill? White? I just don't see Turner getting as many carries in 07 as most of your 22-35 RBs. The way things are going with LT (doesn't even play in preseason) I don't see them letting Turner leave cheaply. And I don't see someone paying even just 1 st for him. SA at 28 couldn't even get a 2nd rnd pick in return. Teams just don't pay big for RBs, let alone unproven backups.

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Turner's ranking includes the risk that he remains a backup next year, and its predicated on the belief that:1) He will be a starter in 2008 (and beyond)2) He will at least be a top 15-18 RB as a starter ( around 1200 yards rushing and 8-10 TDs as a baseline), with top 10 upside.If Turner is certain to be a Charger next year, his ranking will drop, but not significantly. For now, his ranking splits the difference of his ranking if he starts in 2007 (for say, the Jets) and his ranking if he is a Charger.Turner is more talented than Morris and it's not even close. That's a bad example for you to pick. Jordan is a better example, but I think it's clear that Turner is at least as talented as Jordan (I say more).To me, owning Turner in dynasty is somewhat akin to being able to own Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton. I'm not sure exactly when the production will kick in (no later than 2008 for Turner, 2009 for Slaton/McFadden), but I know that when it does kick in, it will be good.

sib said:

good posting. One name that sticks out is Marion Barber. I think he deserves a little higher ranking. I think most folks starting a dynasty draft would probably pick him over Warrick Dunn, Norwood, Travis Henry, and probably over Julius Jones also.

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Last year I was of a similiar opinion but the Tuna didn't share my enthusiasm. I have never deviated from liking Julius however and it appears as though Parcells doesn't trust Marion as his feature back. I would have guessed that the backs listed out of the top twenty would be the most hotly contested but right now I feel comfortable where I have Marion Barber III ranked and I base that off of how I read the Tuna's apprisal of him.I can see where someone could project Barber to make a leap but at this I see JJ as the incumbent with Marion as the goal line RB.

Bracie Smathers said:

12 - Adrian Peterson ?

13 - Lawrence Maroney Pats

14 – Reggie Bush Saints

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The rest I disagree with have already been addressed, but I would trade the 1.01 this year for Bush.I like Peterson a lot, but Bush has looked up to the hype already. I would probably just bump Bush ahead of Peterson, but not by a lot.

billyjoe said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.I would like you to talk about two rankings...21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos35 - Michael Turner SDAny subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

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I'm not really sure how you can have Turner ranked in your top 30.It's unlikely he's starting for anyone next year. The RB class this year is pretty deep. Is someone really going to give up a 1st and 3rd for Turner? LT is over 2,000 carries, and keeping his fresh is of main concern. I don't see SD trading him for less then a 1st, and I don't see anyone giving that up.So to rank him in your top 30, you're talking 900 yards 5 tds next year for Turner? At least? I don't see how 1/2 of that is possible. Based on what we know now, Turner will be a backup in 2007. And Turner is still unproven. How high were people on Morris last spring? Woops?On a RB who's likely to be a backup in 2007, who's largely unproven (Jordan has come back to earth, and he's the poster boy for the backup RB changing teams to become a stud). To justify a top 25 ranking, I'd like to see what you project for his stats, and where. Putting Turner at 2,500 yards, 22 tds over the next 3 years is very questionable. And that's probably as low as you can do for where you have Turner ranked. Guys like Barber,Edge are a lock for, who you have ranked lower. Barber 15ish TDs this year, and he's ranked lower then Turner? Ehh? Guys like TJ/JJ, I can easily see them having more production over the next 3 then Turner. Jacobs? Dwill? White? I just don't see Turner getting as many carries in 07 as most of your 22-35 RBs. The way things are going with LT (doesn't even play in preseason) I don't see them letting Turner leave cheaply. And I don't see someone paying even just 1 st for him. SA at 28 couldn't even get a 2nd rnd pick in return. Teams just don't pay big for RBs, let alone unproven backups.

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I have Turner ranked 35 not 30. These are my dynasty rankings so only looking to 2007 is but the first year going forward in dynasty life.I never liked Jordan but right now I can't see Fargas beating him out. I do feel the Raiders will address RB high in the draft or in free agency but right now I have him ranked where I feel he ranks at this point in time.

Bracie Smathers said:

sib said:

good posting. One name that sticks out is Marion Barber. I think he deserves a little higher ranking. I think most folks starting a dynasty draft would probably pick him over Warrick Dunn, Norwood, Travis Henry, and probably over Julius Jones also.

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Last year I was of a similiar opinion but the Tuna didn't share my enthusiasm. I have never deviated from liking Julius however and it appears as though Parcells doesn't trust Marion as his feature back. I would have guessed that the backs listed out of the top twenty would be the most hotly contested but right now I feel comfortable where I have Marion Barber III ranked and I base that off of how I read the Tuna's apprisal of him.I can see where someone could project Barber to make a leap but at this I see JJ as the incumbent with Marion as the goal line RB.

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This year Barber finished 14th and JJ 27th despite JJ being "the starter". I'd flip flop the two in your rankings.

29 - Travis Henry Titans - he played well, but I don't see him keeping the job from White (or someone else) forever

30 - Ladell Betts Skins - Don't understand this one at all unless you think Portis is getting traded

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons - He shouldn't be above Turner, even if Turner stays in SD another year.

32 - Warrick Dunn Falcons - 32 and has maybe 1 more year left

33 - Lamont Jordan Oakland - I think he bounces back if OAK drafts Joe Thomas

34 – Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys - Seems better than JJ to me, I think he should be higher

35 - Michael Turner SD - should be at least in the top 30

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville - He's done

37 - Mike Bell Denver - I don't see him as that special but he's on the Broncos so you never know

38 - Edge James Arizona - Had an 1100 yard season behind one of the worst OL's in football and is only 29. I don't see how you can't have him in the top 30, let alone behind all of these guys.

Cadillac seems quite low in a dynasty. He was a top 10 Rb last year, typically going 7-9. Now he's #25? Yes, he had a poor year, the whole Bucs team did. But he didn't suddenly foget how to play and one year shouldn't knock a young back with his kind of talent down that much in dynasty rankings. To be behind guys like Tatum Bell is strange.

Sigmund Bloom said:

billyjoe said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Thanks for sharing your rankings, it takes some courage.I would like you to talk about two rankings...21 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos35 - Michael Turner SDAny subscriber can see where I have these guys, and they are very different from where you have them - just curious what you see in the crystal ball for these two.

Click to expand...

I'm not really sure how you can have Turner ranked in your top 30.It's unlikely he's starting for anyone next year. The RB class this year is pretty deep. Is someone really going to give up a 1st and 3rd for Turner? LT is over 2,000 carries, and keeping his fresh is of main concern. I don't see SD trading him for less then a 1st, and I don't see anyone giving that up.So to rank him in your top 30, you're talking 900 yards 5 tds next year for Turner? At least? I don't see how 1/2 of that is possible. Based on what we know now, Turner will be a backup in 2007. And Turner is still unproven. How high were people on Morris last spring? Woops?On a RB who's likely to be a backup in 2007, who's largely unproven (Jordan has come back to earth, and he's the poster boy for the backup RB changing teams to become a stud). To justify a top 25 ranking, I'd like to see what you project for his stats, and where. Putting Turner at 2,500 yards, 22 tds over the next 3 years is very questionable. And that's probably as low as you can do for where you have Turner ranked. Guys like Barber,Edge are a lock for, who you have ranked lower. Barber 15ish TDs this year, and he's ranked lower then Turner? Ehh? Guys like TJ/JJ, I can easily see them having more production over the next 3 then Turner. Jacobs? Dwill? White? I just don't see Turner getting as many carries in 07 as most of your 22-35 RBs. The way things are going with LT (doesn't even play in preseason) I don't see them letting Turner leave cheaply. And I don't see someone paying even just 1 st for him. SA at 28 couldn't even get a 2nd rnd pick in return. Teams just don't pay big for RBs, let alone unproven backups.

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Turner's ranking includes the risk that he remains a backup next year, and its predicated on the belief that:1) He will be a starter in 2008 (and beyond)2) He will at least be a top 15-18 RB as a starter ( around 1200 yards rushing and 8-10 TDs as a baseline), with top 10 upside.If Turner is certain to be a Charger next year, his ranking will drop, but not significantly. For now, his ranking splits the difference of his ranking if he starts in 2007 (for say, the Jets) and his ranking if he is a Charger.Turner is more talented than Morris and it's not even close. That's a bad example for you to pick. Jordan is a better example, but I think it's clear that Turner is at least as talented as Jordan (I say more).To me, owning Turner in dynasty is somewhat akin to being able to own Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton. I'm not sure exactly when the production will kick in (no later than 2008 for Turner, 2009 for Slaton/McFadden), but I know that when it does kick in, it will be good.

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Its reasonable to see him as a starter in 08 and its also reasonable to project production with the caveat that he is the feature back wherever he lands so its not just two degrees of seperation from his current status but three and then toss in the standart laundry list of, health, system, etc. I do not rank Michael Turner with McFadden as I see McFadden as a complete RB. I do not feel Michael Turner has McFadden's ability/upside/well rounded game. Slaton is akin to a smaller Reggie Bush from what I garner so the apple/orange comparison can devolve to kumquat/canape when trying to gauge dynasty rankings from divergent talents on different paths. I may have stumbled into a previous argument on Turner so I want to make clear I know of no existing grudge match on his ranking, this is mine unadulterated ranking based off of my personal view taking into account current situation and forward going opportunity at this time. Mike's situation could change very quickly and I would adjust accordingly.I feel at this point in time ranking him at 35 is reasonable but I am critically listening to arguments to the contrary. I do feel its reasonable to see him moving into a starting position by 08, or sooner, I feel its reasonable to project him to be producing top 22 RB numbers ...... but I can't go forward without putting in qualifiers with Turner. Last year I had Reggie Bush ranked lower than many, see where I have Bush ranked? I have only moved him two spots up from where I originally had him last June. Which is a nice segway to OZ.

12 - Adrian Peterson ?13 - Lawrence Maroney Pats14 – Reggie Bush SaintsThe rest I disagree with have already been addressed, but I would trade the 1.01 this year for Bush.I like Peterson a lot, but Bush has looked up to the hype already. I would probably just bump Bush ahead of Peterson, but not by a lot.

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I like Deuce McAllister, A-LOT! Deuce had ten consecutive 100 yard games in 04 prior to getting injured in 05. He was back completely healthy and due to explode last year IMHO till the addition of Reggie changed plans. Deuce and Reggie work, very well together. Reggie has loads of talent yet so does Deuce and considering both are on the dotted line for large/long term contracts and both are healthy I don't see any reason for either's status to change barring injury so that splits thier potential production in my humble-O but they both are ranked high. Also I should point out this is non-PPR (Point Per Reception) rankings so some may knee jerk strong reactions if basing rankings from a PPR vantage.

cstu said:

29 - Travis Henry Titans - he played well, but I don't see him keeping the job from White (or someone else) forever

30 - Ladell Betts Skins - Don't understand this one at all unless you think Portis is getting traded

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons - He shouldn't be above Turner, even if Turner stays in SD another year.

32 - Warrick Dunn Falcons - 32 and has maybe 1 more year left

33 - Lamont Jordan Oakland - I think he bounces back if OAK drafts Joe Thomas

34 – Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys - Seems better than JJ to me, I think he should be higher

35 - Michael Turner SD - should be at least in the top 30

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville - He's done

37 - Mike Bell Denver - I don't see him as that special but he's on the Broncos so you never know

38 - Edge James Arizona - Had an 1100 yard season behind one of the worst OL's in football and is only 29. I don't see how you can't have him in the top 30, let alone behind all of these guys.

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- The fifth highest rushing total in the AFC this year, Travis Henry Ten 1,211 - Jerious Norwood Atl rushed for 633 in less than 100 rushing attemps. Dunn is close to done and Duckett was dealt away. I see Jerious making a fairly big splash next year.

I agree on Dunn but he's like Pacino in Godfather III, everytime I think he's out he keeps pulling me back in. I've been wrong too many times with Dunn and I've used the Dunn/done line three years running. Broken clock is right twice a day so maybe he will be done but I err on the side of caution and give props because Warrick has earned them from my corner.

Per Lamont, I have to think the Raiders draft someone but their first pick is huge on how the rest of their draft goes and who can figure out Wierd Al's drafts? Drunken Polish kicker anyone?

I didn't know the Marion Barber III fanclub would be soo vocal. Since the other guy hasn't been represented I'll let his production chime in: Julius Jones Dal 1,084 tenth in the NFC, Marion Barber III Dal 654 sixteenth.

I think I've adequately address The Burner.

- The sixth highest rushing total in the AFC this year, Fred Taylor Jac 1,146

- Mike Bell Den 677 not bad for an undrafted wire pickup

- Edgerrin James Ari 1,159 seventh in the NFC. I was actually hoping that someone would mention Edge. He looked so bad early on that part of me bought into the hype that he was finished. I need further evidence but saying he is 29 is another way of saying he's going to be 30 next year and that is the witching hour for NFL RBs and considering these are dynasty rankings....

Solid counter points from all respondents.

Your ranking of Alexander at #4 is pretty much in line with others' dynasty rankings, but I'll say here what I've said elsewhere. Major mistake IMO. I'll get around to doing my own rankings later this offseason, but I anticipate Alexander being a lot closer to #20 in my dynasty rankings than #4. I understand that puts me way out of whack compared to your rankings, Bloom's, F&L's, Pasquino's, etc., but I think when it's 2008-9 and we're looking back, people will realize they were slow to see the writing on the wall.

People hoping that the next 2-3 years of production will be like the pre-2006 years should refer to the histories of other great aging RBs after the injury-exacerbated decline had begun. When they fall, they fall fast. Alexander will be 30 when the season begins next year, the foot has been a problem, he looked slow both before the injury and after returning, his OL is not what it once was, and I'm convinced the statistical decline that has started is not an aberration. To me, he's a huge dynasty risk at #4 and you just don't take a huge risk at #4. If I were drafting in an initial dynasty draft today, no way I'd touch this 30 year old ahead of the 21-25 year olds who have 6+ solid years of production ahead of them.

EDIT - Fear & Loathing has Alexander at #10, which is closer to me than the #4 and #5 of Pasquino and Bloom. I don't expect people to rely on me ahead of these guys, but I did want to put my own opinion out there as fair warning.

Bracie Smathers said:

I didn't know the Marion Barber III fanclub would be soo vocal. Since the other guy hasn't been represented I'll let his production chime in: Julius Jones Dal 1,084 tenth in the NFC, Marion Barber III Dal 654 sixteenth.

Solid counter points from all respondents.

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If you're in a yardage only league that's fine but you're severely minimizing the TD difference between the two. JJ had 4 and Barber had 16, not a small difference.

Agreed. He's (Portis) the one that really jumped out at me. He's definitely on my radar since a lot of people will be scared off by Betts.

A couple others I thought were low were A. Green and MB3.

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Ladell Betts Was ranked eight in the NFC in rushing 1,154 Ahman had that one magical season in 03 that looks flukish compared to the rest of his career:

Career Rushing/Receiving Stats

Year Team G Rush Yds Yd/Rush TD Rec Yds Yd/Rec TD

1998 Sea 16 35 209 6.0 1 3 2 0.7 0

1999 Sea 14 26 120 4.6 0 0 0 - 0

2000 GB 16 263 1175 4.5 10 73 559 7.7 3

2001 GB 16 304 1387 4.6 9 62 594 9.6 2

2002 GB 14 286 1240 4.3 7 57 393 6.9 2

2003 GB 16 355 1883 5.3 15 50 367 7.3 5

2004 GB 15 259 1163 4.5 7 40 275 6.9 1

2005 GB 5 77 255 3.3 0 19 147 7.7 0

2006 GB 14 266 1059 4.0 5 46 373 8.1 1

Totals 126 1871 8491 4.5 54 350 2710 7.7 14

fruity pebbles said:

Cadillac seems quite low in a dynasty. He was a top 10 Rb last year, typically going 7-9. Now he's #25? Yes, he had a poor year, the whole Bucs team did. But he didn't suddenly foget how to play and one year shouldn't knock a young back with his kind of talent down that much in dynasty rankings. To be behind guys like Tatum Bell is strange.

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I had the top pick of the rookie dynasty draft and passed on Caddy because I felt he would have durability issues. He blew out of the gate and then got dinged. It doesn't seem like he's been the same back since. Out of fourteen starts last year he average below 3 yards per carry in eight games. The QB situation adversely impacted the Buc offense last year and right now it remains unsettled even with Simms signing a two year deal which hints Chuckie isn't in luv with him. Gradkowski wasn't/isn't the answer either and I don't think a rookie QB would help matters either. His outlook would improve if they got a top notch free agent QB but I don't see any out there this year so I'm bringing the Caddy in for a tune-up on my rankings this year where I have dropped him considerably mostly due to his situation than lack of talent.

Banger said:

Bracie Smathers said:

I didn't know the Marion Barber III fanclub would be soo vocal. Since the other guy hasn't been represented I'll let his production chime in: Julius Jones Dal 1,084 tenth in the NFC, Marion Barber III Dal 654 sixteenth.

Solid counter points from all respondents.

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If you're in a yardage only league that's fine but you're severely minimizing the TD difference between the two. JJ had 4 and Barber had 16, not a small difference.

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How can u look past the fact that mb3 had 16 tds? JJ might of had more yds but in my league it finished with:Barber, Marion DAL RB 192.60

Jones, Julius DAL RB 161.10

Ill take barber over JJ anyday!

Banger said:

Bracie Smathers said:

I didn't know the Marion Barber III fanclub would be soo vocal. Since the other guy hasn't been represented I'll let his production chime in: Julius Jones Dal 1,084 tenth in the NFC, Marion Barber III Dal 654 sixteenth.

Solid counter points from all respondents.

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If you're in a yardage only league that's fine but you're severely minimizing the TD difference between the two. JJ had 4 and Barber had 16, not a small difference.

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I made a mistake with Marion Barber III when I said he was ranked sixteenth in the NFC, he was eighteenth. TD production is difficult to guage if it varries widely from one year to the next and Barber's TD production leapt from 5 to 14 in one year. I don't think that Romo is the only reason his TD production went up, I think TO had much to do with spreading the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure he's back next year. Jones is inconsistent but when he's on he looks like a feature back. I am looking more at how I feel the Tuna has judged these two rather than basing this off of how I perceive their talent. Maybe Julius puts in more of an effort in camp/practice since he always seems to emerge as the starter. If the Tuna leaves Bid D then Marion gets a clean slate and might beat out Julius but right now I think the past dictates that Julius will once again be the starter for the Boys next year.

Per Couch Potato,

Your ranking of Alexander at #4 is pretty much in line with others' dynasty rankings, but I'll say here what I've said elsewhere. Major mistake IMO. I'll get around to doing my own rankings later this offseason, but I anticipate Alexander being a lot closer to #20 in my dynasty rankings than #4. I understand that puts me way out of whack compared to your rankings, Bloom's, F&L's, Pasquino's, etc., but I think when it's 2008-9 and we're looking back, people will realize they were slow to see the writing on the wall.

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You could very well be out in front of the wave but I find it more difficult to predict when a downfall will come so I'll stick with convention on Alexander till proven otherwise.

I'm not really sure how you can have Turner ranked in your top 30.It's unlikely he's starting for anyone next year. The RB class this year is pretty deep. Is someone really going to give up a 1st and 3rd for Turner? LT is over 2,000 carries, and keeping his fresh is of main concern. I don't see SD trading him for less then a 1st, and I don't see anyone giving that up....Putting Turner at 2,500 yards, 22 tds over the next 3 years is very questionable. And that's probably as low as you can do for where you have Turner ranked.

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I think 2500 yards and 22 TDs is reasonable, and if he gets to another team this next season, he could best those numbers with ease.

To me, owning Turner in dynasty is somewhat akin to being able to own Darren McFadden or Steve Slaton. I'm not sure exactly when the production will kick in (no later than 2008 for Turner, 2009 for Slaton/McFadden), but I know that when it does kick in, it will be good.

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Agree 100%

I do not rank Michael Turner with McFadden as I see McFadden as a complete RB. I do not feel Michael Turner has McFadden's ability/upside/well rounded game.

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TUrner and McFadden are likely to have very different styles as feature-backs in the NFL. THat said, it isn't mutually exlusive that one be good and on be not-as-good. Both can be productive. I agree that McFadden is an amazing talent.

The rest I disagree with have already been addressed, but I would trade the 1.01 this year for Bush.

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This is a logical assertion, especially at this point in time. We know how Bush is going to be used and what team he plays for. We do not have that info on Peterson (or Lynch) just yet. If either went to the Jets, you might rethink the value of the #1 pick. If the player was instead in Cleveland, we'd all be inclined to want Bush instead.

Will someone please explain how R Brown RB MIA is ranked so high by so many people. He was like 24th this year among RBs. We do not know who will be his HC or his QB. I don't see him at 6-10 as most have him with a good HC, a good QB, with that O-Line.

Bracie Smathers said:

TD production is difficult to guage if it varries widely from one year to the next and Barber's TD production leapt from 5 to 14 in one year. I don't think that Romo is the only reason his TD production went up, I think TO had much to do with spreading the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure he's back next year. Jones is inconsistent but when he's on he looks like a feature back. I am looking more at how I feel the Tuna has judged these two rather than basing this off of how I perceive their talent. Maybe Julius puts in more of an effort in camp/practice since he always seems to emerge as the starter. If the Tuna leaves Bid D then Marion gets a clean slate and might beat out Julius but right now I think the past dictates that Julius will once again be the starter for the Boys next year.

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While TD production year-to-year may vary widely generally, I think you are not analyzing MBIII's TD production correctly here. Last year, Barber's performance suggested that he was a good goal-line back; better than JJ. This year Barber definitively showed that he is not only superior to JJ at the goal-line, but is probably one of the top GL backs in the league. That history, IMO, ensures that Barber will get the vast majority of the GL touches in coming years. Even if JJ is the "starter," his failure to get the red zone carries and his ineffectiveness with the few that he gets will ensure that Barber has equal or better value depending on your scoring system.

I think 2500 yards and 22 TDs is reasonable, and if he gets to another team this next season, he could best those numbers with ease.

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Michael Tuner has been in the league for three years and hasn't topped 1,000 rushing yards combined so I would not say that IF he gets to another club but only IF he gets to another club would be reasonable to see him at 2,500 rushing stats over the next three years. Also he has only had 5 total TDs over the last three years so once again the only way I see him with 22 TDs over the next three years would be IF he ends up with another club.

TUrner and McFadden are likely to have very different styles as feature-backs in the NFL. THat said, it isn't mutually exlusive that one be good and on be not-as-good. Both can be productive. I agree that McFadden is an amazing talent.

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I see the overall talent of McFadden as being superior to Turner and I see that when McFadden comes into the league he won't be the low man in a talented backfireld. Lets put it this way. If McFadden and Turner were on your team, who would you start?

This is a logical assertion, especially at this point in time. We know how Bush is going to be used and what team he plays for. We do not have that info on Peterson (or Lynch) just yet. If either went to the Jets, you might rethink the value of the #1 pick. If the player was instead in Cleveland, we'd all be inclined to want Bush instead.

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I agree in that we know which team Reggie is on and how he's been used. The reason why I have him ranked lower is Deuce McAllister. I do not see Reggie significantly topping his numbers of last year. He had 88 receptions so I can't see him posting much higher reception numbers. He can run between the tackles but he is not the better of Deuce in that deparment or edging Deuce out of the bulk majority of carries between the twenties. Sean Payton was able to find a way to make Bush effective running wide at the goal line later in the year but I don't see him taking the bulk of McAllister's goal line carries. Additionally I don't think the plan is to use him more in the return game so I wouldn't look for increased production via speicial team route either. For those reason I feel as long as the Saint backfield is split that Reggie's ceiling is lower than AP/Marshawn and I see it as a shared backfield for the next three years where Reggie won't be able to recoup those lost opportunities.We don't know where AP/Marshawn will end up but I would not expect another New Orleans scenario where Reggie inexpilcably ended up available to the Saints. The Texans passing on Bush was a collossal mistake. Point being to not expect either AP or Marshawn to land on a team with a top notch fantasy RB in his prime like Deuce McAllister where they have split production ALA Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister as both are simply too talented to sit one on the bench and whree both are signed to long term contracts. If anything I have Deuce a scoatch too low on my rankings. 2006 he had his fourth thousand yard rushing season with 10 TDs and thirty receptions. He had his second highest TD production of his career in less than 250 carries. In his previous three 1,000 yard seasons he averaged needing over 315 carries to top a 1,000 yards. So he's had a higher TD production per carry and still topped a 1,000 yards rushing and took less punishment. The Saint backfield won't see either RB as a top fantasy stud but both will do well and prolong each other's careers. For full disclosure, I own both Reggie and Deuce so I have spent time sizing up the Saint backfield. Far too many fell for Reggie while overlooking the value of Deuce McAllister or the fact he's inked to a sizeable long term contract. The production from the Saint RBs is tapped out but should remain consistent for the next few years.

I can't believe no one has brought up Addai at #15. He ranked 11th as a rookie splitting time . . . and he's only 15th?

Bracie Smathers said:

cstu said:

29 - Travis Henry Titans - he played well, but I don't see him keeping the job from White (or someone else) forever

30 - Ladell Betts Skins - Don't understand this one at all unless you think Portis is getting traded

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons - He shouldn't be above Turner, even if Turner stays in SD another year.

32 - Warrick Dunn Falcons - 32 and has maybe 1 more year left

33 - Lamont Jordan Oakland - I think he bounces back if OAK drafts Joe Thomas

34 – Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys - Seems better than JJ to me, I think he should be higher

35 - Michael Turner SD - should be at least in the top 30

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville - He's done

37 - Mike Bell Denver - I don't see him as that special but he's on the Broncos so you never know

38 - Edge James Arizona - Had an 1100 yard season behind one of the worst OL's in football and is only 29. I don't see how you can't have him in the top 30, let alone behind all of these guys.

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- The fifth highest rushing total in the AFC this year, Travis Henry Ten 1,211 - Jerious Norwood Atl rushed for 633 in less than 100 rushing attemps. Dunn is close to done and Duckett was dealt away. I see Jerious making a fairly big splash next year.

I agree on Dunn but he's like Pacino in Godfather III, everytime I think he's out he keeps pulling me back in. I've been wrong too many times with Dunn and I've used the Dunn/done line three years running. Broken clock is right twice a day so maybe he will be done but I err on the side of caution and give props because Warrick has earned them from my corner.

Per Lamont, I have to think the Raiders draft someone but their first pick is huge on how the rest of their draft goes and who can figure out Wierd Al's drafts? Drunken Polish kicker anyone?

I didn't know the Marion Barber III fanclub would be soo vocal. Since the other guy hasn't been represented I'll let his production chime in: Julius Jones Dal 1,084 tenth in the NFC, Marion Barber III Dal 654 sixteenth.

I think I've adequately address The Burner.

- The sixth highest rushing total in the AFC this year, Fred Taylor Jac 1,146

- Mike Bell Den 677 not bad for an undrafted wire pickup

- Edgerrin James Ari 1,159 seventh in the NFC. I was actually hoping that someone would mention Edge. He looked so bad early on that part of me bought into the hype that he was finished. I need further evidence but saying he is 29 is another way of saying he's going to be 30 next year and that is the witching hour for NFL RBs and considering these are dynasty rankings....

Solid counter points from all respondents.

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To elaborate on some of my comments:- I like Norwood, his spot is about right, and I know what you are saying about Dunn - that's why I don't think Norwood will take over until 2008. I think Turner is a better back so I'd put him in the top 30 with Norwood not far behind.

- I'm not that high on Barber, but he should be higher and JJ lower since the Cowboys situation is RBBC.

- I think at most someone gets another 2 years out of Fred Taylor. He's still playing well (best YPC of his career) but he won't be a full-time starter again so his upside is limited.

- At 29, Edge is 2 years younger than Taylor and not in RBBC. He probably has 3 years as a starter left. He's only 4 months younger than Deuce and the same age as Thomas Jones.

Per Ray Pollet,

Will someone please explain how R Brown RB MIA is ranked so high by so many people. He was like 24th this year among RBs. We do not know who will be his HC or his QB. I don't see him at 6-10 as most have him with a good HC, a good QB, with that O-Line.

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I can't anwser for others but I saw Ronnie as the most physically gifted RB of the 2005 rookie crop. 2005 saw the top three RBs go off the board sooner than any draft in NFL history. The 05 class may not have been stellar for regular NFL talent but it was pretty good for FF. I had the top pick but didn't like Ronnie with the first pick. I saw him as the most talented back but I picked up that he lacked an aggressive personality and that sentiment was echoed by Saban when he said he wanted Ronnie to take more charge. I'm still not sold on his personality as a take charge running back but he has all of the physical skills and doesn't have to beat out anyone for the starting job so he 'should' have nothing stopping him.

bumpman said:

Bracie Smathers said:

TD production is difficult to guage if it varries widely from one year to the next and Barber's TD production leapt from 5 to 14 in one year. I don't think that Romo is the only reason his TD production went up, I think TO had much to do with spreading the defense in the red zone and I'm not sure he's back next year. Jones is inconsistent but when he's on he looks like a feature back. I am looking more at how I feel the Tuna has judged these two rather than basing this off of how I perceive their talent. Maybe Julius puts in more of an effort in camp/practice since he always seems to emerge as the starter. If the Tuna leaves Bid D then Marion gets a clean slate and might beat out Julius but right now I think the past dictates that Julius will once again be the starter for the Boys next year.

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While TD production year-to-year may vary widely generally, I think you are not analyzing MBIII's TD production correctly here. Last year, Barber's performance suggested that he was a good goal-line back; better than JJ. This year Barber definitively showed that he is not only superior to JJ at the goal-line, but is probably one of the top GL backs in the league. That history, IMO, ensures that Barber will get the vast majority of the GL touches in coming years. Even if JJ is the "starter," his failure to get the red zone carries and his ineffectiveness with the few that he gets will ensure that Barber has equal or better value depending on your scoring system.

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MB-III had a 9 TD jump from 05 to 06. If he was a top goal line RB then his production should have been cosistent from his rookie season. I think he's the same back as 05, a very good goal line RB but it is my opinion that the influx of talent, Romo/TO helped to open up things at the goal line. I do not see TO back with the Boys so although I feel MB-III is a solid goal line back I do not agree with you that he " ... is probably one of the top GL backs in the league. "

I would agree with your statement if he has one more year of top notch TD production sans TO before I would label him with that non-de-plume.

How can McGahee make the top 10? 2 subpar years in a row.

Cadillac Williams at 25 ?

WTF

....and you are...????

Sabertooth said:

....and you are...????

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If he has something to contribute, he has something to contribute.

Couch Potato said:

Your ranking of Alexander at #4 is pretty much in line with others' dynasty rankings, but I'll say here what I've said elsewhere. Major mistake IMO. I'll get around to doing my own rankings later this offseason, but I anticipate Alexander being a lot closer to #20 in my dynasty rankings than #4. I understand that puts me way out of whack compared to your rankings, Bloom's, F&L's, Pasquino's, etc., but I think when it's 2008-9 and we're looking back, people will realize they were slow to see the writing on the wall.

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Agreed. Shaun is on my do-not-draft, do-not-acquire list. A few months ago, I had an opportunity to acquire him for McGahee in one league (not MOX I), and I barely considered it.

The Man Who Met Andy Griffith said:

Couch Potato said:

Your ranking of Alexander at #4 is pretty much in line with others' dynasty rankings, but I'll say here what I've said elsewhere. Major mistake IMO. I'll get around to doing my own rankings later this offseason, but I anticipate Alexander being a lot closer to #20 in my dynasty rankings than #4. I understand that puts me way out of whack compared to your rankings, Bloom's, F&L's, Pasquino's, etc., but I think when it's 2008-9 and we're looking back, people will realize they were slow to see the writing on the wall.

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Agreed. Shaun is on my do-not-draft, do-not-acquire list. A few months ago, I had an opportunity to acquire him for McGahee in one league (not MOX I), and I barely considered it.

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I concur. :(

Ron_Mexico said:

The Man Who Met Andy Griffith said:

Couch Potato said:

Your ranking of Alexander at #4 is pretty much in line with others' dynasty rankings, but I'll say here what I've said elsewhere. Major mistake IMO. I'll get around to doing my own rankings later this offseason, but I anticipate Alexander being a lot closer to #20 in my dynasty rankings than #4. I understand that puts me way out of whack compared to your rankings, Bloom's, F&L's, Pasquino's, etc., but I think when it's 2008-9 and we're looking back, people will realize they were slow to see the writing on the wall.

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Agreed. Shaun is on my do-not-draft, do-not-acquire list. A few months ago, I had an opportunity to acquire him for McGahee in one league (not MOX I), and I barely considered it.

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I concur. :(

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Me too. I had Shaun in a dynasty league this year and there was very little interest in him, even after he was back. Rudi-no, McGahee-no, Ronnie-no, Caddy-no, Maroney-no, Addai-no. Only interest I got was from the Deuce owner.

January 16th 2007 early rendition already updated. Only including the top two +rookie RBs at this time. I break the list out in dozen's since many leagues are twelve owner and I like to look at players in segments of twelve to gauge how my team(s) stack in relation to other dynasty players. I also give some feedback at the end of each twelve player segment.

1 – Ladanian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers

2 t - Steven Jackson St. Louis Rams

2 t - Larry Johnson Kansas City Chiefs

4 - Frank Gore SF 49ers

5 - Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks

6 – Brian Westbrook Philadelphia Eagles

7 - Rudi Johnson Cincinati Bengals

8 - Willie Parker Steelers

9 - Ronnie Brown Miami Dolphins

10 - +Adrian Peterson ?

11 - Maurice Jones Drew Jacksonville

12 - Reggie Bush Saints

Top dozen. I think LJ and S-Jax are rubbing elbows. I don't have LJ above Jackson. LJ logging over 350 wasn't a big concern but surpassing 400 is. I own LJ so a mix of Jackson impressing and a mild concern over LJ knots up those two IMHO. I bumped down SA due to age but I couldn't move him out of the top five. AP declared and I think he's better than both MJD and Bush since I stand by Duece impacting Reggie from having top ten fantasy production for the next few years. I don't see AP sharing a backfield wherever he ends up.

13 - Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

14 – Joseph Addai Indy

15 - Kevin Jones Detroit Lions

16 - Lawrence Maroney Pats

17 - Chester Taylor Minny

18 - Willis McGahee Buffalo Bills

19 – Cedric Benson Chicago Bears

20 - DeAngelo Williams, Lina

21 - +Marshuan Lynch ?

22 - Deuce McAllister New Orleans Saints

23 - Cadillac Williams Tampa Bay Bucs

24 - Michael Turner SD

I caved and bumped up Clinton. Had to move Willis down and I listened on Michael Turner and list him in the top 24. Caddy owners will not be pleased but I don't believe he warrants a move up.

25 - Brandon Jacobs NYG

26 - Thomas Jones, Chicago Bears

27 - Julius Jones Dallas Cowboys

28 - Tatum Bell, Denver Broncos

29 - Travis Henry Titans

30 - Ladell Betts Skins

31 - Jerious Norwood Falcons

32 - Marion Barber III Dallas Cowboys

33 - Jamal Lewis Baltimore Ravens

34 – Edge James Arizona

35 - Lendale White Titans

36 – Fred Taylor Jacksonville

The difficult dozen. I worked and reworked this section the most. Marion Barber moved up but still below Julius in my opinion. Jam takes a hit due to speculation the Ravens will make a change. Lendale should come in next year healthy a year of seasoning, if he matures he has potential to make a move up. Travis got a shot last year and made the most of it. Probably premature in moving Jacobs up but without Tiki he's the primary G-Men RB right now.

37 - Mike Bell Denver

38 - Warrick Dunn Falcons

39 - Ahman Green

40 – Lamont Jordan Oakland

41 - Reuben Droughns

42 - DeShuan Foster Lina

43 - Leon Washington NYJ

44 - Corey Dillion NE

45 - Justin Fargas OAK

46 - @Ricky Williams MIA

47 - Chris Brown Titans

48 - Ron Dayne Texans

DeShuan has DeAngelo gunning to be starter however the Carolina coaches have a history of being loyal to veteran incumbent RBs like Stephen Davis over DeShuan and last year Foster was able to keep his starter job even with DeAngelo flashing. Ricky Williams is the wild card that I can't omit or drop too far. Reports the Browns are interested in AP and Droughns could be moved back to FB.

49 - Dominic Rhodes Indy

50 - Chris Perry Bengals

51 - Cedric Houston NYJ

52 - Brian Calhoun Det

53 - Correll Buckhalter PHI

54 - Maurice Morris SEA

55 - Gregg Jones JAX

56 - Kevan Barlow NYJ

57 - Ryan Moats PHI

58 - Mike Anderson BAL

59 - Najeh Davenport PIT

60 - TJ Duckett WAS

Chris Perry is popular with some but I have never warmed up to him. Dom Rhodes is producing. Greg Jones was in fashion last year but injury and MJD sealed his fate. Calhoun and Moats are interesting and worth a flyer if you have roster room. Once the NFL draft clears up situations of other rookie RBs I'll take another stab at this. But after digesting feedback/criticism of the first draft I refined my dynasty RB rankings and feel much better where they are now..