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What's Javon Walker's value now? (1 Viewer)

AKComic

Footballguy
I'm thinking about making a play to get Javon Walker, but I'm wondering how his value might have changed with Cutler at QB... What would you have to give up in this year's rookie draft to get Walker? (It's a dynasty league)

OR

If I was to trade an RB for him, what RBs would you consider a comparable value?

Thanks for the help!

 
I'm thinking about making a play to get Javon Walker, but I'm wondering how his value might have changed with Cutler at QB... What would you have to give up in this year's rookie draft to get Walker? (It's a dynasty league)ORIf I was to trade an RB for him, what RBs would you consider a comparable value?Thanks for the help!
this is probably an ac forum question, but i'll bite anyways........need your league details to answer this.....scoring, format, size.....the works :eek:
 
generally I see walker as a definite mid 1st round pick and another pick (2nd round?) value in a trade.

RBs that would be equal would be Rudi Johnson, McGahee, Chester Taylor plus a draft pick, maybe Westbrook, but not in a PPR league.

 
I'm thinking about making a play to get Javon Walker, but I'm wondering how his value might have changed with Cutler at QB... What would you have to give up in this year's rookie draft to get Walker? (It's a dynasty league)ORIf I was to trade an RB for him, what RBs would you consider a comparable value?Thanks for the help!
this is probably an ac forum question, but i'll bite anyways........need your league details to answer this.....scoring, format, size.....the works :eek:
Sorry; wasn't sure if it would be an AC question or not... It's a Zealots league.
 
I'm thinking about making a play to get Javon Walker, but I'm wondering how his value might have changed with Cutler at QB...
It increased. right now JW's among my top 10 in a dynasty, possibly as high as top 5.
What would you have to give up in this year's rookie draft to get Walker? (It's a dynasty league)
I wouldn't trade Javon unless it meant getting Calvin Johnson + an IDP or lower tiered prospect
If I was to trade an RB for him, what RBs would you consider a comparable value?
Depends on the league, but in most: DeAngelo Williams, McGahee, Chester Taylor, Caddy... Those in the RB2 range.
Thanks for the help!
anytime.
 
Walker was the #21 targeted WR last year with 125 targets.

With Cutler at QB, his targets declined and he was only targeted 7 times a game. That's only 112 targets when extrapolated for the entire season. That drops him down to WR27/28 in targets.

Javon also ran for 123 yards and a TD to boost his numbers last year, too. I do not expect a repeat performance in that category from him in 2007.

Denver has added weapons in Henry & Graham, and Cutler has his buddies Schefler and Marshall emerging, too.

I have read many posts on this board where people view Walker's 2006 performance like he has upside remaining for the coming year. Well, 1200 yard / 9 TD seasons are tough to duplicate, let alone surpass. Given those stats, Javon was still only WR 12 in PPR last year because he only caught 69 passes. He was barely a WR1 with a QB who looked for him, now he has an inexperienced guy at the helm who has shown he prefers other targets.

Buyer beware on Walker. I'd look elsewhere if you want value. He's probably priced higher than you should be willing to pay right now.

 
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Walker was the #21 targeted WR last year with 125 targets.With Cutler at QB, his targets declined and he was only targeted 7 times a game. That's only 112 targets when extrapolated for the entire season. That drops him down to WR27/28 in targets.Javon also ran for 123 yards and a TD to boost his numbers last year, too. I do not expect a repeat performance in that category from him in 2007.Denver has added weapons in Henry & Graham, and Cutler has his buddies Schefler and Marshall emerging, too.I have read many posts on this board where people view Walker's 2006 performance like he has upside remaining for the coming year. Well, 1200 yard / 9 TD seasons are tough to duplicate, let alone surpass. Given those stats, Javon was still only WR 12 in PPR last year because he only caught 69 passes. He was barely a WR1 with a QB who looked for him, now he has an inexperienced guy at the helm who has shown he prefers other targets. Buyer beware on Walker. I'd look elsewhere if you want value. He's probably priced higher than you should be willing to pay right now.
Every time theres a Walker thread you post this, whats the agenda ? Desperate to be proved right ?, dumped him for nothing in the past ?, bitter GB fan etc. Walker is explosive, he has the ability to take any catch all the way and playmakers like that tend to get theirs no matter what.. So whats the deal ?
 
I think he's got a good shot to be top 5 this year. His skillset matches perfectly with Cutler's and they made a few beautiful plays last year.

 
Walker was the #21 targeted WR last year with 125 targets.With Cutler at QB, his targets declined and he was only targeted 7 times a game. That's only 112 targets when extrapolated for the entire season. That drops him down to WR27/28 in targets.Javon also ran for 123 yards and a TD to boost his numbers last year, too. I do not expect a repeat performance in that category from him in 2007.Denver has added weapons in Henry & Graham, and Cutler has his buddies Schefler and Marshall emerging, too.I have read many posts on this board where people view Walker's 2006 performance like he has upside remaining for the coming year. Well, 1200 yard / 9 TD seasons are tough to duplicate, let alone surpass. Given those stats, Javon was still only WR 12 in PPR last year because he only caught 69 passes. He was barely a WR1 with a QB who looked for him, now he has an inexperienced guy at the helm who has shown he prefers other targets. Buyer beware on Walker. I'd look elsewhere if you want value. He's probably priced higher than you should be willing to pay right now.
Every time theres a Walker thread you post this, whats the agenda ? Desperate to be proved right ?, dumped him for nothing in the past ?, bitter GB fan etc. Walker is explosive, he has the ability to take any catch all the way and playmakers like that tend to get theirs no matter what.. So whats the deal ?
None of the above. Just posting factual information, trying to educate people. Here is more:With Plummer, Walker averaged 4.6 recpts/77.6 YPG and scored 7 TD's in eleven games.With Cutler, Walker averaged 3.6 recpts/46 YPG and scored a mere 2 TD's in five games.These are facts, please feel free to audit them, as they can be proven as true, as opposed to opinion or projection. Walker with Plummer was a Top 10 WR, Walker with Cutler was run of the mill.If people want to ignore the drastic drop in Walker's production with Cutler at QB and take the leap of faith that things will improve next year, that's their call. All I know is that if I were asking people for information on a decision, I would appreciate the cold hard facts, both good and bad.My apologies if this offends you in any way. Just trying to level set the OP's expectations and maybe help him establish a realistic value for what he should give up in a trade if he still feels Walker can turn things around with Cutler.
 
Walker was the #21 targeted WR last year with 125 targets.With Cutler at QB, his targets declined and he was only targeted 7 times a game. That's only 112 targets when extrapolated for the entire season. That drops him down to WR27/28 in targets.Javon also ran for 123 yards and a TD to boost his numbers last year, too. I do not expect a repeat performance in that category from him in 2007.Denver has added weapons in Henry & Graham, and Cutler has his buddies Schefler and Marshall emerging, too.I have read many posts on this board where people view Walker's 2006 performance like he has upside remaining for the coming year. Well, 1200 yard / 9 TD seasons are tough to duplicate, let alone surpass. Given those stats, Javon was still only WR 12 in PPR last year because he only caught 69 passes. He was barely a WR1 with a QB who looked for him, now he has an inexperienced guy at the helm who has shown he prefers other targets. Buyer beware on Walker. I'd look elsewhere if you want value. He's probably priced higher than you should be willing to pay right now.
Every time theres a Walker thread you post this, whats the agenda ? Desperate to be proved right ?, dumped him for nothing in the past ?, bitter GB fan etc. Walker is explosive, he has the ability to take any catch all the way and playmakers like that tend to get theirs no matter what.. So whats the deal ?
At least he's consistent. There's been a lot of Walker threads this off season, I think we're all going to stay on the side we're on. No convincing anyone to switch.HK can research stats, but seems lacking in the talent spotting area.
 
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No no, I'm not offended at all.. But I think its fair to assume Cutler will progress, if not much this year then within a forseeable future. Looking at last years stats can only take you so far, I'm sure you are aware of this, staying ahead of the curve is the key to success. What I mean is that only a handfull of guys in the league has the skillset of Javon Walker, and in my experience the cream always rise to the top. Adding Henry IMO doesnt change much, Denver was always going to have alot of rushing attempts no matter whos back there. I hear you about Graham, Scheffler and Marshall but as a receiver none of those guys are even close to Walker who (again IMO) is clearly an elite level WR. Cutler working with the 1st stringers this offseason will help build chemistry, Walkers route running and ability to gain seperation + comfort level in the Denver system will do the rest. I think his ceiling is as high as any receiver, on a run oriented team, there ever was.

 
I think Walkers production will drop a bit this season. First, Cutler is still a young QB, and there will be some rough sledding this season. Also, I think he has a chemistry with Scheffler, plus, Marshall should be better this year and might cut into Walkers numbers some. But one real important factor to me is I see the Bronco's running a lot more this year, because of signing not only Henry, but a great blocking TE in Graham.

I see him being a borderline top 10 WR this season, even though his talent level is a bit higher.

 
HK can research stats, but seems lacking in the talent spotting area.
When exactly did I attribute Walker's decline in production with his talent? If Walker were traded to the Colts for Harrison and assumed the WR1 role in Indy, then I'd agree that he would be a top 5 receiver. But he's in Denver and it makes a huge difference.In FF its stats that matter, while talent helps produce stats, talent is worthless without opportunity. Case in point: From PPR final rankings from last year, Walker finished at WR12, barely ahead of Mike Furrey by 2.1 points. (That's a difference of one catch for 11 yards over an entire season). Nobody sane can claim Furrey has the same talent as Walker, but they performed as virtual equals in the eyes of fantasy football. System and opportunity lead to stats, especially for WR's. Talent produces stats, but in the NFL there is a ton of talent not putting up numbers because people are in crappy situations. Javon is one of them. Walker has not, and will not get enough opportunities to be Top 5 in Denver. He'll be fortunate to be top 15 again, which IMO is highly unlikely.
 
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HK can research stats, but seems lacking in the talent spotting area.
When exactly did I say Walker had no talent? If Walker were traded to the Colts for Harrison and assumed the WR1 role in Indy, then I'd agree that he would be a top 5 receiver. But he's in Denver and it makes a huge difference.In FF its stats that matter, while talent helps produce stats, talent is worthless without opportunity. Case in point: From PPR final rankings from last year, Walker finished at WR12, barely ahead of Mike Furrey by 2.1 points. (That's a difference of one catch for 11 yards over an entire season). Nobody sane can claim Furrey has the same talent as Walker, but they performed as virtual equals in the eyes of fantasy football. Sytem and opportunity lead to stats, especially for WR's. Talent produces stats, but in the NFL there is a ton of talent not putting up numbers because people are in crappy situations. Javon is one of them. Walker has not, and will not get enough opportunities to be Top 5 in Denver. He'll be fortunate to be top 15 again, which IMO is highly unlikely.
True, if you can spot the diamond in the rough like Furrey, you've done well. All things considered, I'll take the talented WR with a strong QB. If this were a redraft, #10-15 seems about right to draft JW. However, the thread pertains to dynasty leagues.I didn't say you can't see Walker's talent. You seem to be missing Cutler's talent. You might want to look at Marvin Harrison's stats in Peyton Manning's rookie year before you assume too much here.
 
I didn't say you can't see Walker's talent. You seem to be missing Cutler's talent. You might want to look at Marvin Harrison's stats in Peyton Manning's rookie year before you assume too much here.
OZ: You post good stuff & I respect your opinion. However, I can't help thinking that you just compared Cutler to Peyton Manning after questioning my judgement of talent....did I read that wrong? From a dynasty perspective, Walker is going to be 29 this year. There will be a learning curve with Cutler, and it looks like Walker will probably finish his career as a Bronco, so those two are stuck together as Cutler figures out the pro game. How does that translate into determining how many productive years Walker has left? And how many Top 15 years will Walker have out of those? As few as none and potentially 3 or 4 at most...so how much would you want to give up for a guy like that? He just seems really over valued right now to me.
 
.. But I think its fair to assume Cutler will progress, if not much this year then within a forseeable future. I think his ceiling is as high as any receiver, on a run oriented team, there ever was.
Agree here. Not a top 5, but I think it's fair to assume both JW and Cutler will improve - at least marginally. WR 10-15 seems like a fair estimate, but with a chance for a better fininsh. The potential *issue* IMO would be Shanny's historic use of WRs in his "system" - where someone like Rod Smith (in his prime) was solid, but not generally considered "elite".FWIW - Trade value wise, in a 7 player keeper - I'm considering offering Caddy s/u to a team with some RB ?s. I might toss in a lower round pick to close the deal, but not sure about that.
 
I didn't say you can't see Walker's talent. You seem to be missing Cutler's talent. You might want to look at Marvin Harrison's stats in Peyton Manning's rookie year before you assume too much here.
OZ: You post good stuff & I respect your opinion. However, I can't help thinking that you just compared Cutler to Peyton Manning after questioning my judgement of talent....did I read that wrong? From a dynasty perspective, Walker is going to be 29 this year. There will be a learning curve with Cutler, and it looks like Walker will probably finish his career as a Bronco, so those two are stuck together as Cutler figures out the pro game. How does that translate into determining how many productive years Walker has left? And how many Top 15 years will Walker have out of those? As few as none and potentially 3 or 4 at most...so how much would you want to give up for a guy like that? He just seems really over valued right now to me.
I used both in the comparison, but remember, I'm not predicting JW as the #1 WR in dynasty, which should indicate that I believe Cutler << Manning. Also, Walker is 6 years younger than Marvin. I don't think it's imposible that JW produces well for another 4-6 years.
 
He will be 29 in october, true, but he has only played in 64 games with 34 starts in his career. He has ALOT of thread left on those tires of his and has clearly recovered 100% from his season ending injury in 2005.

 
I think I gotta come down with H.K. on this one, although I see both sides of the argument. I recently completed a dynasty trade sending Walker away for DeAngelo Williams. Few will argue that Javon doesn't have elite talent. But there are just too many mitigating factors for me to comfortably project top 5 upside:

1. Denver is a run first team, putting a ceiling on number of receptions

2. Cutler is talented, but unproven (I own him too)

3. They just signed Henry to assume the workhorse load with ~$12 million guaranteed

4. Tony Scheffler emerged in the 2nd half as a red zone target and will compete for targets

5. Daniel Graham just signed for $30 million with an expressed interest in being more involved in the passing game

6. Brandon Marshall is sure to improve

There's only one football and so many TDs to go around. As a result I like Walker in the 10-15 range going forward.

 
I think I gotta come down with H.K. on this one, although I see both sides of the argument. I recently completed a dynasty trade sending Walker away for DeAngelo Williams. Few will argue that Javon doesn't have elite talent. But there are just too many mitigating factors for me to comfortably project top 5 upside:1. Denver is a run first team, putting a ceiling on number of receptions2. Cutler is talented, but unproven (I own him too)3. They just signed Henry to assume the workhorse load with ~$12 million guaranteed4. Tony Scheffler emerged in the 2nd half as a red zone target and will compete for targets5. Daniel Graham just signed for $30 million with an expressed interest in being more involved in the passing game6. Brandon Marshall is sure to improveThere's only one football and so many TDs to go around. As a result I like Walker in the 10-15 range going forward.
I have to agree with HK as well. I have a franchise tag on Walker and if someone puts an offer on him I'm letting the guy go and taking the two first rounders.....
 
Gotta hand it to Cutler, he's done a real nice job of spreading the ball around to his weapons when he took over in wk13. Walker was the guy he looked for, but he also favored Marshall and Scheffler* (you can see the progression from week to week). Marshall looks like he could cut into Walker's production. I'm assuming Marshall will take over WR2 from Smith. The signing of Daniel Graham doesn't help Walker either.

Walker will be the go-to guy, but Cutler looks like he's going to be good at spreading it around.

wk13 vs sea

walker 7/2 17 0

scheffler 4/1 15 0

marshall 1/1 71 1

wk14 @ sd

walker 8/4 52 0

marshall 6/2 19 0

bell 5/4 15 0

scheffler 5/3 66 2

smith 4/3 20 0

wk15 @ arz

marshall 7/5 58 0

smith 7/4 57 40 1

walker 6/5 84 1

scheffler 4/3 58 0

bell 2/2 12

wk16 vs Cin

marshall 7/4 65 0

walker 7/3 52 1

scheffler 3/2 26 1

wk17 vs SF

smith 9/5 59 0

walker 6/4 25 0

scheffler 4/3 54 1

marhsall 4/2 20 0

wk13 - wk17

walker 34/18 230 2

marshall 25/14 233 1

scheffler 20/12 219 4

*not to high-jack, but Scheffler really blossomed with Cutler in there and getting red zone TDs, not sure why Denver felt the need to go out and sign Daniel Graham as well.

 
6. Brandon Marshall is sure to improve
[bloom]Brandon Marshall is a fine prospect indeed who should make marked improvements in his gameand capture fans attention this year (E)[/bloom]All schtick aside, Marshall and Scheffler are two reasons that I dont have Walker in the tier of true #1 fantasy WRs.
 
Gotta hand it to Cutler, he's done a real nice job of spreading the ball around to his weapons when he took over in wk13. Walker was the guy he looked for, but he also favored Marshall and Scheffler* (you can see the progression from week to week). Marshall looks like he could cut into Walker's production. I'm assuming Marshall will take over WR2 from Smith. The signing of Daniel Graham doesn't help Walker either.

Walker will be the go-to guy, but Cutler looks like he's going to be good at spreading it around.
I would say so, too. Not sure if anyone posted it anywhere on the boards, but Rod Smith has re-done his contract with huge paycuts.
 
Small addition to the topic:

How will Javon react on the field to events that happened off the field?

Remember: he was in the limo when Darrent Williams was murdered. Did he hold Darrent while he died in his lap? This has to have a psychological effect on someone. Powerless to help a friend in need.

As a witness to the murder, he is forced to relive the experience for police investigation, media, friends, the Williams family, and any counseling he's going through.

Fans will bring cap guns / sound makers to the games. Opponent CBs will clap their hands loudly. Trash talk is usually brutal on the field. Can he tune it all out or will he unintentionally duck when a car backfires in a parking lot?

It could have been a life altering moment for him. Some soldiers are never the same after a firefight.

On the flip side, maybe it gives Javon a new perspective on life and pushes himself harder on the field. Maybe it doesn't affect him at all, just numb to it all.

Yet to be seen either way.

 
Walker was the #21 targeted WR last year with 125 targets.With Cutler at QB, his targets declined and he was only targeted 7 times a game. That's only 112 targets when extrapolated for the entire season. That drops him down to WR27/28 in targets.Javon also ran for 123 yards and a TD to boost his numbers last year, too. I do not expect a repeat performance in that category from him in 2007.Denver has added weapons in Henry & Graham, and Cutler has his buddies Schefler and Marshall emerging, too.I have read many posts on this board where people view Walker's 2006 performance like he has upside remaining for the coming year. Well, 1200 yard / 9 TD seasons are tough to duplicate, let alone surpass. Given those stats, Javon was still only WR 12 in PPR last year because he only caught 69 passes. He was barely a WR1 with a QB who looked for him, now he has an inexperienced guy at the helm who has shown he prefers other targets. Buyer beware on Walker. I'd look elsewhere if you want value. He's probably priced higher than you should be willing to pay right now.
Every time theres a Walker thread you post this, whats the agenda ? Desperate to be proved right ?, dumped him for nothing in the past ?, bitter GB fan etc. Walker is explosive, he has the ability to take any catch all the way and playmakers like that tend to get theirs no matter what.. So whats the deal ?
None of the above. Just posting factual information, trying to educate people. Here is more:With Plummer, Walker averaged 4.6 recpts/77.6 YPG and scored 7 TD's in eleven games.With Cutler, Walker averaged 3.6 recpts/46 YPG and scored a mere 2 TD's in five games.These are facts, please feel free to audit them, as they can be proven as true, as opposed to opinion or projection. Walker with Plummer was a Top 10 WR, Walker with Cutler was run of the mill.If people want to ignore the drastic drop in Walker's production with Cutler at QB and take the leap of faith that things will improve next year, that's their call. All I know is that if I were asking people for information on a decision, I would appreciate the cold hard facts, both good and bad.My apologies if this offends you in any way. Just trying to level set the OP's expectations and maybe help him establish a realistic value for what he should give up in a trade if he still feels Walker can turn things around with Cutler.
Jay Cutler, not coincidentally, was a rookie last season. Is it possible that the fact that Denver went from a long-time NFL veteran to an NFL rookie might have had something to do with the fact that their passing yards to WRs dropped dramatically, and their passing yards to TEs and RBs rose dramatically?Unless you expect Denver to abandon the offense that they've been using successfully for the last 12 years, I would view the dropoff in WR production with Cutler last season as an aberration relating to Cutler's inexperience and unfamiliarity with the first-team players (remember, he'd been practicing with the second team for most of the year, and even in preseason he was rarely on the field at the same time as Walker).As a Broncos homer, what I saw with Walker last season was an explosive player who is quite clearly the team's most talented offensive player... and Shanahan has a history of getting the ball in the hands of his most talented offensive player. I expect Javon Walker's role in the offense next year to be similar to Rod Smith circa 1998-2002.I haven't done any projections yet, but I'll probably wind up projecting Walker in the 1200/8 range.
.. But I think its fair to assume Cutler will progress, if not much this year then within a forseeable future. I think his ceiling is as high as any receiver, on a run oriented team, there ever was.
Agree here. Not a top 5, but I think it's fair to assume both JW and Cutler will improve - at least marginally. WR 10-15 seems like a fair estimate, but with a chance for a better fininsh. The potential *issue* IMO would be Shanny's historic use of WRs in his "system" - where someone like Rod Smith (in his prime) was solid, but not generally considered "elite".
Rod Smith from 1997-2002 (his "prime") averaged 1232 yards and 7.67 TDs. That's about what I'm likely to project Walker to. Maybe not "elite", but easily WR1-caliber numbers (and the ceiling is high- Rod Smith had 3 top-4 finishes in that 6 year span).As for the concern that Marshall, Scheffler, and Henry might cut into his numbers... it's always a possibility, but not a certainty. Denver's offense traditionally is paradoxical in that the better numbers the rushing game produces, the better numbers the passing game produces, and Marshall/Scheffler are both second year pros, and are certainly no McCaffrey/Sharpe yet.I would say that there is a very strong precedent of WR's in Shanahan's "system" putting up top-12 numbers, in the 1200-yard range. I'd also say that Walker is a better red-zone threat that Smith, and as a result, it's possible that his TD numbers will skew higher than Smith's did in his prime (Smith's TD numbers were the only thing keeping him from becoming truly elite).
*not to high-jack, but Scheffler really blossomed with Cutler in there and getting red zone TDs, not sure why Denver felt the need to go out and sign Daniel Graham as well.
Did you see how mediocre Denver's running game was last season? That's why Denver signed Graham. Basically, Denver signed Daniel Graham to Offensive Tackle money, because they're expecting him to perform like an Offensive Tackle (albeit one who is also an eligible receiver).Daniel Graham was signed to be the new Dwayne Carswell, just like Scheffler was drafted to be the new Shannon Sharpe.
 

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