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*** Official Michael Turner 2007 offseason thread *** (1 Viewer)

TKO Spikes said:
Have you been on the Bills forums? It's absolutely ridiculous. 500 posts about the same topic, guys trashing the team minute after minute, then when it turns out to be a good move the same people are pulling the "I knew it all along." I love the Bills but I hate the forums. Haven't received 1 good bit of info there EVER. It's really sad when you got guys making posts titled "If Calvin Johnson falls to #12 do we take him?"
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Bills forums are generally unreadable. I've never been able to find one to convince me otherwise.as for Turner, the only deal that might make sense to me would be for the Bills to swap 1st rounders with the Chargers. Bills would have their feature RB, would save some money by not paying the bigger signing bonus to a #12 pick, and could probably land a good LB/CB with the Chargers 1st and their own 2nd. I'm not completely sure Turner is worth the monster contract they'd probably have to give him, but if they decided he's the best option for them, they gotta pay up.
 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
TKO Spikes said:
Have you been on the Bills forums? It's absolutely ridiculous. 500 posts about the same topic, guys trashing the team minute after minute, then when it turns out to be a good move the same people are pulling the "I knew it all along." I love the Bills but I hate the forums. Haven't received 1 good bit of info there EVER. It's really sad when you got guys making posts titled "If Calvin Johnson falls to #12 do we take him?"
Click to expand...
Bills forums are generally unreadable. I've never been able to find one to convince me otherwise.as for Turner, the only deal that might make sense to me would be for the Bills to swap 1st rounders with the Chargers. Bills would have their feature RB, would save some money by not paying the bigger signing bonus to a #12 pick, and could probably land a good LB/CB with the Chargers 1st and their own 2nd. I'm not completely sure Turner is worth the monster contract they'd probably have to give him, but if they decided he's the best option for them, they gotta pay up.
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If that's the case, I don't see the Bills making a move until draft day. If both Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis are gone, maybe this deal happens. I just don't see Marv passing on a younger, arguably better rb prospect in AD, or a ray lewis type talent at LB such as Willis.
 
big, BIG Michael Turner fan here. His speed, power, and outstanding production in his limited time are well documented, but I think the attribute that I love most about Turner is his rugged style. He's that bully that you went to HS with who was just bigger, stronger, and faster than anyone else - he'd rather run over you than around you. He delivers the blow rather than absorbing it. He's hard nosed, and I think the Chargers will be taking a risk moving him now as there is little chance anyone they bring in will provide LT2 insurance as well as Turner will in '07/'08.

That being said, as a GM you have to gamble and AJ Smith knows this is his best chance to get considerable value for Turner, and he has to pull the trigger since it appears he'll get close to his asking price.

Call me crazy, but if I were AJ Smith, I'd move Turner to get either the 12 pick (Buff) or 16 (GB) and then package that pick with the 30th pick and a 3rd rounder next year to move up to #2 (Det) and take Calvin Johnson.

Adding Johnson to the Bolts offense makes it far and away the best offense in the NFL, and gives Philip Rivers his Marvin Harrison. With the Bolts roster so young and stacked, there aren't many spots on the roster for draft picks to make the team. I'd mortgage all of them to get Johnson; the Bolts are a #1 WR from completely dominating the league for the next 3-4 years.

 
GroveDiesel said:
PadresLakers said:
From John Clayton's "blog"

Turnin' on The Burner

The interest in Chargers restricted free agent Michael "The Burner" Turner is starting to sizzle. He had a good visit with the Titans, who are clearly interested in trading for him. Turner had flight problems getting to Buffalo for a visit, so Bills owner Ralph Wilson dispatched his private jet to get him into town (Turner visited Buffalo on Thursday). Two other teams -- the Cowboys and Jets -- are monitoring the talks. It will take at least a first-round choice -- either this year or next season -- to get Turner, who was a former fifth-round pick but clearly has first-round talent. Expect trade talks to heat up over the next couple of days.
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:thumbdown: John Clayton has about as much legitimate inside information as my grandma does these days.
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Link to your grandma's blog? Is this it?
 
tommyGunZ said:
Call me crazy, but if I were AJ Smith, I'd move Turner to get either the 12 pick (Buff) or 16 (GB) and then package that pick with the 30th pick and a 3rd rounder next year to move up to #2 (Det) and take Calvin Johnson.
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I think it would take more than that to move up from #12 to #2.I also don't think the Bills will trade this year's #12 for Turner.If the Bills or Titans are willing to part with their 2008 first-rounder, that might work.
 
TKO Spikes said:
Wow, I think this kills any optimism I had about this season. It seems to be one of the tougher schedules I've seen.
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I'm not sure what this post has to do with Michael Turner, but substitute Indy for Jax and SD for Den, and I think you just found a tougher schedule.
 
Teams courting Chargers RB Turner will have to pay to play

Written by: JIM TROTTER ¦ 4/8/2007

Source: www.uniontrib.com

None of us knows what will come of the Michael Turner trade talks, but one thing is certain: If a deal does happen with Buffalo or Tennessee, it will be on the Chargers' terms.

The Bills and Titans assured as much when they jettisoned their leading rushers from last season without having a capable replacement on the roster. They ostensibly put all their cards on the table, leaving them no room to bluff down the asking price on Turner.

Buffalo could say that it likes backup Anthony Thomas and believes he will regain the form that made him the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2001 with Chicago, but San Diego General Manager A.J. Smith knows better, as does anyone who knows the difference between a football and baseball.

Tennessee could say that it believes second-year pro LenDale White will mature and fulfill his potential, but the claim will carry little weight after White reportedly showed up for offseason workouts grossly overweight, tilting the scale at 260 pounds.

Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.

That leaves Turner, a restricted free agent who has been outstanding as LaDainian Tomlinson's backup. Bright, physical and fast, Turner would seem to be ideally suited for Decembers in Orchard Park. And the Titans are quite familiar with him after he burned them for 138 yards on 13 carries last year.

There has been speculation that Smith will come off his trade demand of first-and third-round draft choices for Turner, for fear of losing Turner next offseason as an unrestricted free agent and getting only a low compensatory draft choice in exchange. Better to get something now than nothing later, the argument goes.

The only problem is that Smith doesn't think that way. He values playmakers and knows Turner can help the Chargers make a Super Bowl run as a backup and a kick returner. He's not going to give him away, particularly when he knows what cards the other teams are holding.

http://www.uniontrib.com/

 
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
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This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
 
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uniontrib....is that a local San Diego paper? I'm just trying to peg the source because it sounds like an article from a San Diego source if you ask me.

 
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
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AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
 
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
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He doesn't hold the cards for long though. Don't forget that if the Chargers don't do a deal this offseason, they will likely get NOTHING for Turner. The clock is ticking. IMO, that balances out the bargaining power.
 
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Agreed - I probably misspoke then. What I meant is that the Titans and Bills probably aren't as desperate to pay up for Turner as the writer would make it appear.
 
Otis said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
He doesn't hold the cards for long though. Don't forget that if the Chargers don't do a deal this offseason, they will likely get NOTHING for Turner.
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Yes, they won't get any "trade value" (although they may get a comp pick) but what they will get is Turner under contract for 1 more year and I think many people are overlooking this fact. Turner is a very good kick returner and the top backup in the league should anything happen to LT and these are very valuable commodities to a GM trying to win a Super Bowl.I think people are mistaken if they think that AJ will just take the best offer he can get just because he will lose him to FA next year. He has proven in the past that he will let value walk (Brees, Edwards) so he's not going to make a move just to make a move.

 
Banger said:
Otis said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
He doesn't hold the cards for long though. Don't forget that if the Chargers don't do a deal this offseason, they will likely get NOTHING for Turner.
Click to expand...
Yes, they won't get any "trade value" (although they may get a comp pick) but what they will get is Turner under contract for 1 more year and I think many people are overlooking this fact. Turner is a very good kick returner and the top backup in the league should anything happen to LT and these are very valuable commodities to a GM trying to win a Super Bowl.I think people are mistaken if they think that AJ will just take the best offer he can get just because he will lose him to FA next year. He has proven in the past that he will let value walk (Brees, Edwards) so he's not going to make a move just to make a move.
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wernt brees and edwards starters though? Thats a big difference imo, I think they could find another decent backup for LT, its not like the were spelling LT with Turner a whole lot anyways.
 
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
 
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
Click to expand...
:thumbdown:
 
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
Click to expand...
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
 
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zamboni said:
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
Click to expand...
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
AJ and others may think that. They'd be wrong.
 
massraider said:
zamboni said:
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
Click to expand...
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
AJ and others may think that. They'd be wrong.
Click to expand...
Totally agree - if LT does the unthinkable and gets hurt, I think their season is shot. But I guess that's why AJ is running the team and we're spending our time speculating on this. :lmao:
 
zamboni said:
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
I think people are over-estimating the worth of a(ny) B/U RB. If LT goes down for any great length of time, San Diego's super bowl season is over. Turner or not. If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego. This isn't to say Turner won't flourish as a starter somewhere else. But he has more value to SD in a trade. If they are looking for "insurance", they can sign Kevan Barlow, Corey Dillon, or Chris Brown.
 
jwb said:
zamboni said:
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
I think people are over-estimating the worth of a(ny) B/U RB. If LT goes down for any great length of time, San Diego's super bowl season is over. Turner or not. If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego. This isn't to say Turner won't flourish as a starter somewhere else. But he has more value to SD in a trade. If they are looking for "insurance", they can sign Kevan Barlow, Corey Dillon, or Chris Brown.
Click to expand...
:goodposting:
 
zamboni said:
massraider said:
zamboni said:
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
Click to expand...
This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
Click to expand...
AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
Click to expand...
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
Click to expand...
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
AJ and others may think that. They'd be wrong.
Click to expand...
Totally agree - if LT does the unthinkable and gets hurt, I think their season is shot. But I guess that's why AJ is running the team and we're spending our time speculating on this. :yes:
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:lmao: I said that a long time ago in this or one of the other Turner threads. The only way Turner provides a lot of value is if LT misses significant time, i.e. 8+ games. LT was the primary reason they were a Super Bowl contender. Sure Rivers played well, but put Turner in the backfield last year for 16 games and they are a playoff contender, maybe miss the playoffs like Denver. They aren't the #1 seed in the AFC. If I am wrong about that, then Turner is special and Tennessee, GB, Buffalo, etc. would be crazy not to trade for him. If I am right, then SD would be best to trade him for the large amount of value he has now as if LT is lost for the season, they might as well just work on Rivers development and call the playoffs icing on the cake.

 
jwb said:
zamboni said:
Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
Click to expand...
I think people are over-estimating the worth of a(ny) B/U RB. If LT goes down for any great length of time, San Diego's super bowl season is over. Turner or not. If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego.

This isn't to say Turner won't flourish as a starter somewhere else. But he has more value to SD in a trade. If they are looking for "insurance", they can sign Kevan Barlow, Corey Dillon, or Chris Brown.
Click to expand...
This is total speculation on your part. What if they are being offered a 3rd rounder? He's not only a backup RB but he's also a very good kick returner.

 
massraider said:
zamboni said:
humphrp said:
Banger said:
zamboni said:
mozzy84 said:
Maybe the Bills and Titans do have contingency plans, but they're not readily apparent. The draft? Buffalo picks 12th, Tennessee 19th. The elite backs in this year's college class �" Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Cal's Marshawn Lynch �" are expected to be gone before then.
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This is where I think the writer is way off. Peterson of course will be gone by #12, but not Lynch. I think the writer is also overestimating how much the Chargers hold the cards here.
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AJ definitely holds the cards here since he controls Turners fate (unless someone gives a 1 and 3 which won't happen). Whether he overplays his hand is another question. He's shown in the past with Brees, D. Edwards that he is willing to let pending FA's walk so who knows how this situation will shakeout. He certainly won't give him away so if the reported teams aren't offering what AJ feels his value is I truly believe that he's perfectly willing to have him be the best backup in the game for one more year.
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Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players. If the value offered today is greater then the difference of return (games won w/Turner - games won w/o Turner) he will get traded. IMHO Turner will get traded this offseason due to the fact that he is a backup that will get a lot of value if traded.
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Fair points, but even though Turner is a part time player, the insurance value he brings (at least in AJ's eyes) may be just as meaningful as the value of a full-fledged starter.
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AJ and others may think that. They'd be wrong.
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No offense but I'll side with arguably the best GM in the game over an internet poster all day long.
 
humphrp said:
Everyone keeps talking about how AJ has let FA walk in the past, and then they reference Brees and Edwards. IMHO I think that the situations behind those two players are much different then Turners. Brees was held onto for one more year to allow for more time to bring on Rivers. Brees was the starter and was a key starter for the Chargers. Rivers showed enough during that year to keep the Chargers from Franchising Brees. Edwards was also a starter. They needed him there that year to give the backups another year of experiance and development. Here lies the difference. Turner is a backup. Holding on to him one year does not give the Chargers enough of a return (games won) as the two formerly mentioned players.
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But think in VBD terms.The drop-off from Brees to Rivers, and the drop-off from Edwards to Wilhelm/Cooper, if those are drop-offs at all, are much smaller than the drop-off from Turner to Pinnock/Sproles.
 
Banger said:
No offense but I'll side with arguably the best GM in the game over an internet poster all day long.
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None taken. I don't think that thinking a backup RB is less valuable than a starter is a very difficult position to defend. And we also don't know that AJ thinks that, so you'd be siding with a guy on a position he hasn't taken.I have no dog in this hunt, but I certainly hope AJ sticks to his guns. I hope he thinks his backup RB, in the last year of his deal, is worth more than a first. Because I don't want the Chargers to get any picks foe him. I want them to let him walk away next year, for nothing. When the Raiders will be looking for a back.
 
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massraider said:
When the Raiders will be looking for a back.
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This also has to be playing into AJ's mind in the whole trade consideration process. He can try to keep Turner if the price isn't suitable to him, but then risk losing him next year to the Raiders or Denver (if Henry fails). If he trades with Tennessee or Buffalo, it has to be certainly more palatable for the Chargers for 2008 and beyond.

But once again, it depends on whether all those considerations are more than balanced by a desired insurance policy for this year.

 
massraider said:
I don't think that thinking a backup RB is less valuable than a starter is a very difficult position to defend.
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Sure. And if the Chargers could trade Turner for a safety or WR who is guaranteed to be of the same quality, they would do so in an instant. A right tackle as well.But that's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about trading him for draft picks. A draft pick may or may not be any good, and in any case is unlikely to be a starter this year (except maybe at safety -- but the Chargers have their own pick to fill that spot).

I would definitely trade Turner for a first-rounder this year, or even a first-rounder next year. I'm not saying that one year of Turner's services (plus a comp pick) is worth more than that.

But I think a lot of people are underestimating what a year of his services is worth. Behind safety and WR, and maybe right tackle, RB is the biggest position of need for the Chargers (without Turner). Turner fills that position of need quite well.

 
massraider said:
Banger said:
No offense but I'll side with arguably the best GM in the game over an internet poster all day long.
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None taken. I don't think that thinking a backup RB is less valuable than a starter is a very difficult position to defend. And we also don't know that AJ thinks that, so you'd be siding with a guy on a position he hasn't taken.I have no dog in this hunt, but I certainly hope AJ sticks to his guns. I hope he thinks his backup RB, in the last year of his deal, is worth more than a first. Because I don't want the Chargers to get any picks foe him. I want them to let him walk away next year, for nothing. When the Raiders will be looking for a back.
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Everything is relative and all "backups" are not created equal since said backup would be a starter on more than half the teams in the NFL. As has been said before he's an insurance policy (a very good one) and a very good special teams player so giving that up has to make sense.I'm not sure what the offers have been and that's the key in this equation. You can't just say "deal him" if you don't know what they are being offered. The Chargers are certainly open to dealing him but again the benefit has to outweigh the potential risk. I think if they were truly being offered a 1st rounder (either Buff/Tenn/GB) we wouldn't be writing about this right now since Turner would have a new jersey on his back. Just because LT hasn't gotten hurt doesn't mean he won't and AJ would look like the biggest fool on the planet if he took a lowball offer and LT goes down week 1 and they have to rely on Barlow for 15 weeks.
 
jwb said:
If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego.
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There have been a LOT of SB-caliber RBs that were nowhere near as good as Tomlinson, so this line of thinking carries no weight.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
jwb said:
If LT goes down for any great length of time, San Diego's super bowl season is over. Turner or not.
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Why?
If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego.
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That doesn't follow.
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I agree with that this guys trying to say. I why you guys are saying that their super bowl is done if LT gets hurt. How long of an injury are we talking about here? If he's out for a season then yeah you have a point. If we're talking 4-5 games then I don't see why they wouldn't still be favored to make the playoffs so long as they Turner. Now AJ's problem is how do you win those 4-5 games without LT. With Turner you have a proven guy who can succeed in the system and allow you to still basically run your regular offense. Without Turner you have rookie running back #1, Darren or probably Chris Brown. That puts a lot of pressure on Rivers in his second year, and the less the proven WR core to win those games. That stretch of time would be a huge difference in seeding and even making the playoffs. They have the chance to win all and you can't let those kind of things slip away especially with the comp pick still to be factored in for losing Turner. If Turners only being valued at a mid second rounder right now based of the pick charts then AJ should at least think about whether it’s in his interest. Last pick in the 3rd round and Turner for a year, or mid second round value now? (The 3rd isn’t a lock but with the buzz he’s had recently it’s looking more and more like he’ll get a good contract next year if he’s not traded.)I think they should trade Turner if the pick exchanges being whispered around are true but if the value isn't there then its certainly not stupid to keep Turner since he would make a huge difference for them if LT went down.
 
Despyzer said:
jwb said:
If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego.
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There have been a LOT of SB-caliber RBs that were nowhere near as good as Tomlinson, so this line of thinking carries no weight.
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Take this year for example, Addai/Rhodes/TJ/Benson wouldn't have had a sniff behind LT either. It doesn't make them lesser backs they just aren't as good as LT (no one is).
 
Well, what's a lowball offer?

Thomas Jones went for a 2nd rounder. Actually, a trade up, not even a pick, but it supposedly "equaled" a 2nd rounder. There are 1,000 yard rushers out there for the signing, for free. And there was all spring, just like there was last offseason.

Value is not just determined by talent, it's also determined by conditions. If Turner played a position that was tough to come by, his trade value would be greater. If his contract wasn't running out this year, with no possibilty of being franchised, his value would be greater.

And the abundance of RB's is another reason why AJ should be questiuoned if he doesn't get a deal done. Maurile made the point that RB would be a major need if Turner is dealt. That may be true, but is there an easier position to fill than backup RB?

 
Banger said:
Despyzer said:
jwb said:
If Turner were good enough to carry the super bowl load, it'd be a RBBC right now in San Diego.
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There have been a LOT of SB-caliber RBs that were nowhere near as good as Tomlinson, so this line of thinking carries no weight.
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Take this year for example, Addai/Rhodes/TJ/Benson wouldn't have had a sniff behind LT either. It doesn't make them lesser backs they just aren't as good as LT (no one is).
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No offense, Banger and Despyzer, but while I agree that it wouldn't be RBBC because LT is the best RB in the NFL right now, I think both of your arguments have no weight either.Just because there have been a lot of SB caliber RBs not near LT, doesn't mean SD would be a Super Bowl contender without LT. Indy has Peyton Manning and Chicago had probably the best Special Teams/Defense. LT is SD's best player, period. I could say that Trent Dilfer was a SB QB. Does that mean that if I put Dilfer in Indy last year, they are still a Super Bowl winner?Anyway, since we have seen so little of Turner, I am inclined to assume that SD is a worse team with Turner than LT, which means I see them last year fighting with Denver for a playoff spot, not the #1 seed if Turner was their RB.Hey, if I am wrong about that, then great as I can keep Turner for a 10th next year and if I get a guy who is just a hair below LT, them I am even happier when he gets traded. Right now, I will temper my enthusiasm and say that while SD wouldn't turn to RBBC, I do think that it is not a valid argument to counter with "there have been worse SB RBs."
 
The article in the San Diego paper comes down to two words: trade posturing.

AJ is pretty smart an is now using the media to send his message...He said he would take less than a 1 and a 3, but time is short for all parties to figure it out before the draft, which is most likely if a deal were to happen at all. The Bills said they are fairly set and can draft an RB at 12. The Titans are a most likely fit, but don't want to get screwed and have White in place and Dillon very interested in them.

My take is that if AJ Smith want to get a deal done with the Titans, he will have to let Turner go with a #2 this year and 3 or 4 next...

 
TitanBlitz said:
The article in the San Diego paper comes down to two words: trade posturing.AJ is pretty smart an is now using the media to send his message...He said he would take less than a 1 and a 3, but time is short for all parties to figure it out before the draft, which is most likely if a deal were to happen at all. The Bills said they are fairly set and can draft an RB at 12. The Titans are a most likely fit, but don't want to get screwed and have White in place and Dillon very interested in them.My take is that if AJ Smith want to get a deal done with the Titans, he will have to let Turner go with a #2 this year and 3 or 4 next...
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What's the local sentiment down in Tennessee right now?
 
massraider said:
Well, what's a lowball offer? Thomas Jones went for a 2nd rounder. Actually, a trade up, not even a pick, but it supposedly "equaled" a 2nd rounder. There are 1,000 yard rushers out there for the signing, for free. And there was all spring, just like there was last offseason.Value is not just determined by talent, it's also determined by conditions. If Turner played a position that was tough to come by, his trade value would be greater. If his contract wasn't running out this year, with no possibilty of being franchised, his value would be greater.And the abundance of RB's is another reason why AJ should be questiuoned if he doesn't get a deal done. Maurile made the point that RB would be a major need if Turner is dealt. That may be true, but is there an easier position to fill than backup RB?
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A mid/late 2nd isn't enough value IMO and if that's the best offer Turner will remain a Charger. I agree that value isn't determined by talent alone, for the most part it's supply and demand. Yes, there is a supply of 1,000 yard backs but how many perceived difference makers are there out there? Turner is perceived as one otherwise Buff/Tenn wouldn't even waste their time considering the salary AND required trade price when the others mentioned (Brown/Barlow/etc.) can be easily signed.On the flip side, Tenn/Buff have real needs at the RB position and neither (IMO) are comfortable with the options out there otherwise they would have already rostered one of them and Turner wouldn't be a consideration. SD has the supply, Tenn/Buff have the demand it will just come down to who blinks first.
 
stbugs said:
No offense, Banger and Despyzer, but while I agree that it wouldn't be RBBC because LT is the best RB in the NFL right now, I think both of your arguments have no weight either.
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My argument was that the reason there isn't a RBBC in SD is because LT is WAY too good of a back to share time with anyone, whether he is a SB-quality RB or not. Explain to me how that argument has no weight.I also notice that you left Maurile's name off your little list even though he said something very similar to us, why is that?

 
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Banger said:
massraider said:
Well, what's a lowball offer?

Thomas Jones went for a 2nd rounder. Actually, a trade up, not even a pick, but it supposedly "equaled" a 2nd rounder. There are 1,000 yard rushers out there for the signing, for free. And there was all spring, just like there was last offseason.

Value is not just determined by talent, it's also determined by conditions. If Turner played a position that was tough to come by, his trade value would be greater. If his contract wasn't running out this year, with no possibilty of being franchised, his value would be greater.

And the abundance of RB's is another reason why AJ should be questiuoned if he doesn't get a deal done. Maurile made the point that RB would be a major need if Turner is dealt. That may be true, but is there an easier position to fill than backup RB?
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SD has the supply, Tenn/Buff have the demand it will just come down to who blinks first.
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That's the point, they don't have the only supply. Turner may be a difference maker, but that's a projection, not a fact.
 
massraider said:
Banger said:
SD has the supply, Tenn/Buff have the demand it will just come down to who blinks first.
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That's the point, they don't have the only supply. Turner may be a difference maker, but that's a projection, not a fact.
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Right now, there are more teams that want a Michael Turner than there are Michael Turners who are available. That puts the supply/demand factor in San Diego's favor.
 
massraider said:
That's the point, they don't have the only supply.
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Right. That's why the uniontrib article is kind of lame. It's not a card game; it's a market. There are plenty of potential RB buyers and plenty of potential RB sellers.The question will come down to what Turner is worth to the Chargers vs. what he is worth to other teams. It is complicated by the fact that he'd play for $2.35M for the Chargers but probably around $6M for another team; and also by the fact that the Chargers would get a comp pick if he leaves; and also by the fact that the Chargers would have him for only one year while another team would have him for more. So there are a lot of variables in the mix. But ultimately, if he's worth more to another team than he is to the Chargers, a deal should get done. If not, it won't. It works out for the Chargers either way because at the very least, they'll have a year of Turner for $2.35M plus a comp pick. That's already a good value, but if they can get more -- even better.

In any case, the next few weeks will be interesting. And it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Jets and Cowboys make offers for Turner before the draft. Brian Schottenheimer and Wade Phillips have seen Turner up close.

 
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