Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (IDP) (1 Viewer)

Posted this in the Shark Pool, I'm looking for some experianced IDP'ers to tear it apart:

1) Adrian Peterson, RB

2) Calvin Johnson, WR

3) Marshawn Lynch, RB

4) Brandon Jackson, RB

5) Antonio Pittman, RB

6) Kenny Irons, RB

7) Brady Quinn, QB

8) Jamarcus Russell, QB

9) Dwayne Bowe, WR

10) Robert Meachum, WR

11) Patrick Willis, LB

12) Ted Ginn Jr., WR

13) Dwayne Jarrett, WR

14) Greg Olsen, TE

15) Anthony Gonzalez, WR

16) Sydney Rice, WR

17) Michael Bush, RB

18) Brian Leonard, RB

19) Tony Hunt, RB

20) Laron Landry, S

21) Troy Smith, QB

22) Drew Stanton, QB

23) Trent Edwards, QB

24) Paul Poszluzny, LB

25) Jon Beason, LB

26) Jason Hill, WR

27) Craig Davis, WR

28) Dwayne Wright, RB

29) Darius Walker, RB

30) Lorenzo Booker, RB

31) Chris Henry, RB

32) Adam Carriker, DL

33) Gaines Adams, DL

34) Jamaal Anderson, DL

35) Michael Griffin, S

36) Leon Hall, CB

37) Darelle Revis, CB

38) Aundrae Allison, WR

39) Zach Miller, TE

40) David Harris, LB

41) Bradon Siler, LB

42) Steve Smith, WR

43) Jarvis Moss, DL

44) Amobi Okoye, DL

45) Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR

46) Jacoby Jones, WR

47) Ben Patrick, TE

48) Kevin Kolb, QB

49) John Beck, QB

50) Paul Williams, WR

51) Stewart Bradley, LB

52) Aaron Ross, CB

53) Mike Walker, WR

54) Anthony Spencer, DL

55) Chris Houston, CB

56) Brandon Merriweather, S

57) Rufus Alexander, LB

58) Tim Shaw, LB

59) Deshawn Wynn, RB

60) Kolby Smith, RB

61) Justin Durant, LB

62) David Ball, WR

63) David Clowney, WR

64) Lamarr Woodley, DL

65) Chales Johnson, DL

66) Garrett Wolfe, RB

67) Jon Abbate, LB

68) Jared Zabransky, QB

69) Jordan Palmer, QB

70) HB Blades, LB

71) Prescott Burgess, LB

72) Gary Russell, RB

73) Romance Taylor, RB

74) Chris Leak, QB

75) Mason Crosby, PK

I applaud you for taking the time to do this pre-draft and I think the general tiers look about right. But you said you wanted some tough love, so here you go.

I think it's impossible to reliably rank all but the clearest stud rookie IDPs before the draft as so much is dependent on scheme and opportunity. Would anybody have had Roman Harper in their top 3 safeties prior to last year's NFL draft?

Without knowing where they'll land, I think you have to give the edge at DL to the better edge rushers for now. Carriker is a very nice player but I think Adams has to be the pre-draft favorite to be the #1DL. Also, the two-way safety prospects are all the rage in recent seasons, but they'll be back in coverage more often than a guy like Aaron Rouse will be. If Rouse ends up in Carolina or Texas or San Diego, he may be neck-and-neck with Landry as DB1 on my list, if not DB1. And, in most standard leagues, I can't see guys like Leon Hall or Chris Houston, who aren't known as stellar run support guys, being draft worthy even with the bump in value the rookie corner rule provides.

Also, I understand I'm well in the minority here, but there's no way I'm taking a questionable QB/RB/WR prospect over a potential stud IDP. I want as many stud scorers in my starting lineup as I can get. Waiting and hoping that a third tier RB works his way into your starting lineup sometime in the next three seasons while somebody else rosters a potential stud safety in the late second and a starting ILB with upside in the late third is a good way to fall behind quickly IMO.

And that's exactly what happens every year when dynasty IDP owners who have a good idea of scheme and relative value grab DeMeco Ryans and Donte Whitner while their competition is falling over themselves to draft Brian Calhoun and Sinorice Moss with much earlier picks.

Obviously, scoring systems and number of starters matters but while I don't even know who Mike Walker is, I'd guess that there'll be a good number of IDPers who aren't listed here who'll make my top fifteen next Monday.

I'm glad you asked, since it means I get to read Bramel's answer.

Donte Whitner's a strange mention when talking about scheme, though - cover-2 certainly isn't a great spot for a SS to land in. I devalued Whitner after seeing his landing spot.

Also, it's easy to mention Calhoun and Moss vs. Ryans and Whitner, but picking players very close in ADP, we could be comparing MJD and Jennings vs. Carpenter and McIntosh.

Personally, I don't even list CBs for rookie drafts. I'm perfectly willing to pick them up after they get a starting job or return+nickle position, but I'll wait until we see the situation for guys.

I put together a quick ranking pre-draft, but as Jene said, situation affects IDPs more than offensive players, so that changes a lot.

Tick said:

Donte Whitner's a strange mention when talking about scheme, though - cover-2 certainly isn't a great spot for a SS to land in. I devalued Whitner after seeing his landing spot.

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Generally speaking, I'd agree with you. But a careful look last pre-season suggested that the more aggressive Cover-2 teams aren't afraid to bring their safeties up in run support. Perry Fewell learned Tampa-2 concepts from Lovie Smith, whose safeties (Archuleta, Brown, etal) were always good tacklers. Couple that with Whitner's excellent cover skills and likelihood of big plays and there looked to be an exception to the usual Cover-2 safety struggles. I had Harper/Whitner/Huff 1-2-3 shortly after camp began.

Tick said:

Also, it's easy to mention Calhoun and Moss vs. Ryans and Whitner, but picking players very close in ADP, we could be comparing MJD and Jennings vs. Carpenter and McIntosh.

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This is a reasonable point. I'm clearly cherry picking players in the second paragraph to illustrate my point but I think the general argument is valid. I may miss on a MJD or get burned on a Thomas Davis now and then -- and have -- but I think the hit rate for a good IDP owner is going to be much higher on the stud IDP than the second and third tier offensive player. I understand the scarcity of RB/WR arguments and the ease of finding good IDPs on the free agent lists, so I know I'm swimming against the current here. But I still strongly feel that the #2 DB or #3 LB is nearly always a better bet than the #7 RB or #6 WR (all numbers arbitrary) to provide an long-term relative advantage in your starting lineup if an IDP carries any kind of value in your scoring system.BTW, had I the choice last year between Jennings and MJD and Carpenter or McIntosh, I'm taking the offensive guy. Big potential offensive guys are still the right play than questionable IDPs. But top IDPs Whitner and Ryans went after Calhoun and Moss in nearly every one of my dynasty leagues last year. If the rank list above is the norm -- and I imagine it is looking at the Bloom 100 where IDP value is depressed -- I see it happening again this year. There is no way I'm taking Trent Edwards or Tony Hunt over Jon Beason if all land in the situations most have been mocked.

Jene Bramel said:

There is no way I'm taking Trent Edwards or Tony Hunt over Jon Beason if all land in the situations most have been mocked.

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I will, knowing I can get guys like Justin Durant and Quincy Black later, where the best QBs/RBs around when Durant/Black are still on the board will be guys like Rowe and Wynn.That being said, I am realizing that I was a little low on Beason and Puz in the early versions of the 100 because I was discounting the chances of them ending up at MLB.

Jene Bramel said:

I think it's impossible to reliably rank all but the clearest stud rookie IDPs before the draft as so much is dependent on scheme and opportunity. Would anybody have had Roman Harper in their top 3 safeties prior to last year's NFL draft?

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Donnybrook said:

Jene Bramel said:

I think it's impossible to reliably rank all but the clearest stud rookie IDPs before the draft as so much is dependent on scheme and opportunity. Would anybody have had Roman Harper in their top 3 safeties prior to last year's NFL draft?

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I agree with this. While I do want to know relative talent level of IDPs I find thier position and scheme to be just as important if not more so. That is not as much the case for offensive players. And considering that then it makes sense for a pre-nfl ranking list to reflect that which I believe Mitch's list does.IDP players post draft will jump up the list once situation and projected position they will play becomes more known. IDP players will jump up my rankings more post-nfl draft than offensive players will.As an aside I want to comment on the perception of the cover 2 not being a good scheme for SS. I wonder where this thinking is coming from?Successful FF SS coming from the Dungy tree of cover 2 defenses are numerous.

Biabreakable said:

As an aside I want to comment on the perception of the cover 2 not being a good scheme for SS. I wonder where this thinking is coming from?Successful FF SS coming from the Dungy tree of cover 2 defenses are numerous.

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The concern with the Cover-2 safeties is that they're often aligned to be used more in pass coverage than in run support. The early Tampa-2 teams (TB and IND) had safeties with relatively poor value -- John Lynch, Mike Doss, Dexter Jackson -- but those teams played more Cover-2 than teams like Chicago or Buffalo who play a fair amount of man coverage with traditional SS looks.Safeties can have good value on teams who predominantly use Cover-2 looks, particularly if they are able to make coverage plays that show up in the boxscore. Otherwise they have to find a way to get more than an average opportunity in run support, by being used as a quasi-linebacker (Adam Archuleta in STL), facing a bunch of rush attempts on a bad rush defense (DET SS in 2006), or both (Bob Sanders).Matching the skill set to the opportunity and responsibilities within the scheme is key. Keith Ellison isn't worth nearly as much as Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs. Nathan Vasher is worth less than Charles Tillman. The same holds true for every other defensive front and scheme and is why I caution against marrying yourself to a default baseline like "Cover-2 safeties are not good IDP options". The reason for the statement is important to understand but it's just as important to where the exceptions lie.

I'm going to make adjustments after the draft but thanks for the really great input right now.

Good info here guys...

The QB's on the list really stuck out to me

21) Troy Smith, QB

22) Drew Stanton, QB

23) Trent Edwards, QB

...

48) Kevin Kolb, QB

49) John Beck, QB

Kolb and Beck are way too low right now and Troy Smith is ranked too high. I have all 4 of these QB's ranked higher than Troy Smith myself.

trader jake said:

Good info here guys...The QB's on the list really stuck out to me21) Troy Smith, QB22) Drew Stanton, QB23) Trent Edwards, QB...48) Kevin Kolb, QB49) John Beck, QBKolb and Beck are way too low right now and Troy Smith is ranked too high. I have all 4 of these QB's ranked higher than Troy Smith myself.

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Kolb may be too low but I don't feel Smith should be lower or Beck should be higher. Beck is old with a limp arm, while Smith has major talent but people are down on him because of his height which is dumb to me, IMO. Plus I like him better than two QB's who sturggled with injury and consistency in college.

Bojang0301 said:

trader jake said:

Good info here guys...The QB's on the list really stuck out to me21) Troy Smith, QB22) Drew Stanton, QB23) Trent Edwards, QB...48) Kevin Kolb, QB49) John Beck, QBKolb and Beck are way too low right now and Troy Smith is ranked too high. I have all 4 of these QB's ranked higher than Troy Smith myself.

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Kolb may be too low but I don't feel Smith should be lower or Beck should be higher. Beck is old with a limp arm, while Smith has major talent but people are down on him because of his height which is dumb to me, IMO. Plus I like him better than two QB's who sturggled with injury and consistency in college.

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1st of all I want to give props to Mitch for putting his rankings out there for everyone to see. I am not willing to do so when I play against him and many others who lurk around these parts..I have not had the time to go through his list in depth although I would like to do that. He has some good knowledge of college players and a eye for them moving on to the next level. He has ties with Ohio State so while there may be some homerism involved there is also some up close observations that should balance that out somewhat.That being said I have to agree that Kolb in particular is too low. Even if you think Smith is better than him Kolb should be in the same tier at least. I have Kolb, Edwards, Stanton and Smith all within 7 picks of each other on my overall list so they are all in a similar tier.John Beck has been getting some positive movement in mocks lately I have noticed but I do not have him in the same tier as the other Qbs.I am not real excited about any of the Qb prospects and where and when they are drafted will have a large influence on my evaluation of them.As far as Smith goes I think it is more than just his height disadvantage against him. And height does matter for a Qb being able to see his targets and find them. I think Smith greatly benifited from playing with a talented supporting cast and he is not going to have such an advantage in the NFL.Could he be like Drew Brees? Sure. But he just as likely could be Doug Flutie or worse.

My rankings pre-draft... I change my rankings more than average after the draft, I'd say. Situation means slightly more to me than it does to most people, though that varies a bit by position and also increases as I get further down the list.

1 Adrian Peterson

2 Calvin Johnson

3 Marshawn Lynch

4 JaMarcus Russell

5 Brady Quinn

6 Dwayne Bowe

7 Robert Meacham

8 Ted Ginn Jr

9 Dwayne Jarrett

10 Kenny Irons

11 Brian Leonard

12 Brandon Jackson

13 Antonio Pittman

14 Sidney Rice

15 Patrick Willis

16 Lorenzo Booker

17 Steve Smith

18 Jason Hill

19 Anthony Gonzalez

20 Greg Olsen

21 Tony Hunt

22 Michael Bush

23 Aundrae Allsion

24 Darius Walker

25 Gaines Adams

26 Zach Miller

27 Paul Poszlusny

28 Johnnie Lee Higgins

29 Lawrence Timmons

30 Craig Davis

31 Michael Griffin

32 David Harris

33 Jamaal Anderson

34 LaRon Landry

35 DeShawn Wynn

36 Brandon Siler

37 Adam Carriker

38 Troy Smith

39 David Clowney

40 Dwayne Wright

41 Drew Stanton

42 Ahmad Bradshaw

43 Jacoby Jones

44 Paul Williams

45 Jon Beason

46 Reggie Nelson

47 Kolby Smith

48 Trent Edwards

49 Anthony Spencer

50 Chris Henry

51 Jarvis Moss

52 Chansi Stuckey

53 Courtney Taylor

54 Aaron Rouse

55 Garrett Wolfe

56 Eric Weddle

57 Buster Davis

58 Charles Johnson

59 Ben Patrick

60 Justin Durant

61 Ken Darby

62 Kevin Kolb

63 John Beck

64 Br Meriweather

65 Rhema McKnight

66 Rufus Alexander

67 Jason Snelling

68 Dallas Baker

69 LaMarr Woodley

70 Stewart Bradley

71 Victor Abiamira

72 Quentin Moses

73 Sabby Priscatelli

74 Selvin Young

75 Scott Chandler

76 Gary Russell

77 Tim Crowder

78 Steve Breaston

79 Quincy Black

80 Thomas Clayton

81 David Ball

Updated:

1) Adrian Peterson, RB

2) Calvin Johnson, WR

3) Marshawn Lynch, RB

4) Brandon Jackson, RB

5) Brady Quinn, QB

6) Jamarcus Russell, QB

7) Robert Meachum, WR

8) Dwayne Bowe, WR

9) Greg Olsen, TE

10) Ted Ginn Jr., WR

11) Kenny Irons, RB

12) Sydney Rice, WR

13) Anthony Gonzalez, WR

14) Dwayne Jarrett, WR

15) Jon Beason, LB

16) Patrick Willis, LB

17) David Harris, LB

18) Jason Hill, WR

19) Michael Bush, RB

20) Drew Stanton, QB

21) Tony Hunt, RB

22) Laron Landry, S

23) Craig Davis, WR

24) Paul Poszluzny, LB

25) Kevin Kolb, QB

26) John Beck, QB

27) Antonio Pittman, RB

28) Chris Henry, RB

29) Brandon Merriweather, S

30) Jamaal Anderson, DL

31) Zach Miller, TE

32) Steve Smith, WR

33) Lawrence Timmons, LB

34) Dwayne Wright, RB

35) Lorenzo Booker, RB

36) Brian Leonard, RB

37) Troy Smith, QB

38) Gaines Adams, DL

39) Jarvis Moss, DL

40) Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR

41) Jacoby Jones, WR

42) Justin Durant, LB

43) Paul Williams, WR

44) Mike Walker, WR

45) Stewart Bradley, LB

46) Eric Weddle, S

47) Michael Griffin, S

48) Kolby Smith, RB

49) Ben Patrick, TE

50) Garrett Wolfe, RB

51) James Jones, WR

52) Laurent Robinson, WR

53) Aundrae Allison, WR

54) Ikaika Alama-Francis, DL

55) Leon Hall, CB

56) Darelle Revis, CB

57) Aaron Ross, CB

58) Anthony Spencer, DL

59) Chales Johnson, DL

60) Roy Hall, WR

61) Amobi Okoye, DL

62) Chris Houston, CB

63) David Clowney, WR

64) Jordan Palmer, QB

65) HB Blades, LB

66) Prescott Burgess, LB

67) Jeff Rowe, QB

68) Justice Harrison, RB

69) Deshawn Wynn, RB

70) Darius Walker, RB

71) Ryne Robinson, WR

72) Yamon Figurs, WR

73) Isiah Stanback, QB

74) Lamarr Woodley, DL

75) Matt Moore, QB

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

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It's probably elsewhere in the forum, but do you have a link? I've seen comments about not assigning positions yet, but nothing saying Poz is certainly a MLB.

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

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From my understanding, which is somewhat limited, it looks like Poz will be SLB in that defense. So while he looks like a 3 down LB not the most ideal of situations for him unless Crowell fails in the middle. I like Beason in the most ideal spot as he will at least be looking to play the Will Witherspoon role in Carolina while Willis and Harris look to be solid additions as ILB's in the 3-4.

Tick said:

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

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It's probably elsewhere in the forum, but do you have a link? I've seen comments about not assigning positions yet, but nothing saying Poz is certainly a MLB.

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Bojang0301 said:

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

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From my understanding, which is somewhat limited, it looks like Poz will be SLB in that defense. So while he looks like a 3 down LB not the most ideal of situations for him unless Crowell fails in the middle. I like Beason in the most ideal spot as he will at least be looking to play the Will Witherspoon role in Carolina while Willis and Harris look to be solid additions as ILB's in the 3-4.

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Aaron (and others) have posted post-draft comments that were more committal than the originals in the Crowell sell high thread. Poz will start out in the middle and Crowell on the left side.

Jene Bramel said:

Tick said:

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

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It's probably elsewhere in the forum, but do you have a link? I've seen comments about not assigning positions yet, but nothing saying Poz is certainly a MLB.

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Bojang0301 said:

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

Click to expand...

From my understanding, which is somewhat limited, it looks like Poz will be SLB in that defense. So while he looks like a 3 down LB not the most ideal of situations for him unless Crowell fails in the middle. I like Beason in the most ideal spot as he will at least be looking to play the Will Witherspoon role in Carolina while Willis and Harris look to be solid additions as ILB's in the 3-4.

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Aaron (and others) have posted post-draft comments that were more committal than the originals in the Crowell sell high thread. Poz will start out in the middle and Crowell on the left side.

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Where would you have these four LB's and do you think I'm too low on Timmons as 3-4 OLB.

Bojang0301 said:

Where would you have these four LB's and do you think I'm too low on Timmons as 3-4 OLB.

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My thoughts are in the middle of the other rookie ranking thread here.

Bojang0301 said:

JetsWillWin said:

Poz needs to be ranked much higher - probably the #1 IDP right now considering he's going to be playing MLB.

Click to expand...

From my understanding, which is somewhat limited, it looks like Poz will be SLB in that defense. So while he looks like a 3 down LB not the most ideal of situations for him unless Crowell fails in the middle. I like Beason in the most ideal spot as he will at least be looking to play the Will Witherspoon role in Carolina while Willis and Harris look to be solid additions as ILB's in the 3-4.

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Aaron Rudnicki said:

TEOM said:

CAN Keith Ellison start at strong side? I don't get the impression that this is his prescribed role....?

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he's not. rotoworld got that wrong.the article they link to as the source of that blurb says this:

The Bills had to get a linebacker early in the draft and they ended up with the guy most analysts rated as second best in the draft. Paul Posluszny gives the Bills size, quickness and athleticism at a vital position. He also gives them flexibility because he can play middle linebacker or on the strong side. The Bills gave some consideration to moving last year’s weak side starter, Angelo Crowell, to middle linebacker, but Jauron would prefer to play Posluszny in the middle and keep Crowell outside, where he’s more comfortable.

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I think they are mis-interpreting the above statement. When Spikes was in the lineup last year, Crowell played on the weakside. But, when Spikes was out of the lineup, Ellison played WLB and Crowell played SLB.the Bills want to upgrade their run defense. putting the 228 pound Ellison at SLB is not likely to do that.

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guys why did Siler fall so far????

jgb95 said:

guys why did Siler fall so far????

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A classic example of several mistakes.1. Believing the press clippings over your own coaches.2. Having a sense of entitlement over a national championship3. Being cocky to the point of losing interest in interviews4. Playing behind a great DL and taking too much credit5. Not being mature enough physically or mentallyI told Jene before the draft I thought Siler would never start in the NFL. It wasn't a popular position for me to take, but I have probably watched him more than most. His game just didn't translate well, imo. He needs to make an impact on specials to have a job now. That isn't easy in SD, btw.

thanks CC!!!