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Player Spotlight: Tony Romo (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Tony Romo Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
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i'm not sold on romo, and if i was an owner, i'd be selling high right now. he had a great 4 game run in november, but closed the year out rough. i see romo regressing a little this year. trying to overcome the adjustments made on him. i think he'll be closer to the guy we saw in december.

480 305 3500 19 td 17 int 40 132 3.3 1

 
I own Romo, so I know you can't sell high

I hope he has a career year. However, I know better, so I predict 3,400/24/15. I think/hope this year gets easier working with Too, Glenn, Crayton & Witten.

 
Colin Dowling said:
3400, 24, and 15 on a team that I expect will run the ball 450 times would be a GREAT season.
Click to expand...
Not disagreeing with you, but the 'boys ran the ball 468 times last season and their QBs accounted for 4000+yds, 26 TDs and 20 INTs...so it doesn't seem out of the realm of possiblity (although I think his INTs will be higher).I would have him at 318/519-3729-23-20, but it is early and that is projecting for a healthy/available TO...realistically you can figure TO misses at least 2-3 games and then you see Romo with closer to 3,500-3,600 and fewer TDs and maybe a few more INTs. A risky proposition.
 
3,800/26/17

40/120/1

Romo will be better with last year under his belt. He has a solid cast of Vet. WR's and a very good TE.

 
I think Romo was a one hit wonder. Teams figured out how to defend him and that wont change. That being said the team has some great offensive weapons and that should pad his stat totals. But he will throw a bunch of INTs as well. He could be a QB10-12. And Brad Johnson will not steal his job unless he is dreadful (which I dont think he is).

3600 pass yds, 20 tds, 17 ints, rushing stats negligible.

 
Whose the coach this year? Wade Phillips? Riiiiiiiiight...

Cowboys are in for a down year. I fully expect Romo not to come close to what he did last year. Anyone remember when Parcells left the Jets and they had an "experimental" QB? Cant remember his name but he got signed by the Dolphins and stuck it up.

Parcells was grooming Romo. Without Parcells, I think Romo is in trouble.

 
Hairy Snowman said:
Whose the coach this year? Wade Phillips? Riiiiiiiiight...Cowboys are in for a down year. I fully expect Romo not to come close to what he did last year. Anyone remember when Parcells left the Jets and they had an "experimental" QB? Cant remember his name but he got signed by the Dolphins and stuck it up.Parcells was grooming Romo. Without Parcells, I think Romo is in trouble.
Click to expand...
Ray Lucas was that future stud :thumbup:
 
Hairy Snowman said:
Whose the coach this year? Wade Phillips? Riiiiiiiiight...Cowboys are in for a down year. I fully expect Romo not to come close to what he did last year. Anyone remember when Parcells left the Jets and they had an "experimental" QB? Cant remember his name but he got signed by the Dolphins and stuck it up.Parcells was grooming Romo. Without Parcells, I think Romo is in trouble.
Click to expand...
By all accounts Phillips will have little to nothing to do with the offense, and Jason Garrett will be developing Romo. Whether that's an upgrade remains to be seen.Little was done to upgrade the offense beyond one mediocre OL and a couple of draft projects. I can't see the stats going anywhere but sideways.
 
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?

3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.

 
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
 
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
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People also project for a full season of games when in reality players get hurt reducing numbers.
 
shadyridr said:
People also project for a full season of games when in reality players get hurt reducing numbers.
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Agreed...I don't know any better way than to project every player on an even playing field (all 16 games) when projecting them out. Once tiered, I can make some judgment calls with Lefty over Losman based on health and probable playing time, but until then...I am just compiling "16 game, all players healthy" scenarios and seeing how they stack up.ETA: Just looked back at 2005 season and 11 players had over 3,400+ yds passing, and only one of them failed to tally 20+ TDs and 2004 had 13 players with 3,400+ and 2 of them failed to reach 20 TDs. Putting Romo on the fringe of top 11 to 13 seems about right to me. That being said, I have not ventured over to the Campbell thread, so maybe things are askew over there.
 
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David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
its early, you need to wait for some of us to cook up our stews before you get served. You should expect projecting stats this early will result in undercooked stew.
 
shadyridr said:
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
People also project for a full season of games when in reality players get hurt reducing numbers.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I can't project injuries, so I don't bother reflecting injury risk in my numbers. I simply make notes next to players that I believe are injury risks and consider that information when drafting. A classic example of why you don't do that is Steve Young's 1998 season. He'd already had a number of concussions in prior seasons that had cost him playing time, and I figured going in that that was going to happen again so I dropped his numbers. He had the best fantasy season of his career. Injury risk simply has to be a qualitative analysis and not quantitative.
 
I am sold on Romo as the Dallas QB. He is excellent when he gets outside the pocket and can make big plays happen. He also isn't afraid to be under pressure late in the games. In 2006, some games he flourished and in others, he made a key mistake. However, it being his first year really leading the team I think Tony Romo definately has a good future with Dallas. Throw in that Dallas had the opportunity to draft Brady Quinn at the No.22 spot in this year's draft and traded out of it, I think Dallas thinks they have their man too.

3800 yards, 24 TD's, 17 INT's and 4 fumbles

150 yards rushing and 2 TD's

 
redman said:
shadyridr said:
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
People also project for a full season of games when in reality players get hurt reducing numbers.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: I can't project injuries, so I don't bother reflecting injury risk in my numbers. I simply make notes next to players that I believe are injury risks and consider that information when drafting. A classic example of why you don't do that is Steve Young's 1998 season. He'd already had a number of concussions in prior seasons that had cost him playing time, and I figured going in that that was going to happen again so I dropped his numbers. He had the best fantasy season of his career. Injury risk simply has to be a qualitative analysis and not quantitative.
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Just to clarify, I care more about the relative rankings or projections each individual may have more so than the single projection of just one player. One ranking in a vacuum is pretty much meaningless.For example, if I had Willis McGahee projected at 1800 rushing yards that would be one thing. But if I had him ranked/projected as the 18th RB that would simply mean I had a lot of other players ahead of Willis but inflated all of their projections as well.Similarly, if I projected T.O. at 1000 yards and 10 TDs but he was my highest projected WR, that also would have more value than just the actual projection itself.
 
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
I think this is an excellent point, and one I just made in the Jason Campbell thread. Objectively, I can't see how Campbell ranks any higher than the bottom third of projected NFL starters [not fantasy, but NFL aptitude] and yet the projections paint him to be a top 10 fantasy QB. Not going to happen.Obviously, Romo had a more impressive season and even made the Pro Bowl, so I'm less put off by the enthusiasm for him. The Cowboys did try to bolster the offensive line and threw a ton of money at Leonard Davis, as well as made some decent pickups via the draft. Will they gel? Not sure but it's an attempt.In 11 starts, Romo threw 19 TDs, and obviously his critics will point out his 5 TD game as an anomaly. So let's say they're right...throw out his 5 TD game and you're left with 14 TDs in 10 starts. Project that over a full season and you're looking at 22 TD passes assuming a) no improvement and b) that the 5 TD game wasn't part of the data set.From a yardage standpoint, he was also consistent. He had 220 yards or more in all but one start, with several 300 yard passing games. If we again assume the low end, 220 yards, you're looking at 3,520 yards over a full 16 game slate.3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo assuming a) complete health and b) that he's not at risk of having Brad Johnson step in for him on short notice.
 
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
I think this is an excellent point, and one I just made in the Jason Campbell thread. Objectively, I can't see how Campbell ranks any higher than the bottom third of projected NFL starters [not fantasy, but NFL aptitude] and yet the projections paint him to be a top 10 fantasy QB. Not going to happen.Obviously, Romo had a more impressive season and even made the Pro Bowl, so I'm less put off by the enthusiasm for him. The Cowboys did try to bolster the offensive line and threw a ton of money at Leonard Davis, as well as made some decent pickups via the draft. Will they gel? Not sure but it's an attempt.In 11 starts, Romo threw 19 TDs, and obviously his critics will point out his 5 TD game as an anomaly. So let's say they're right...throw out his 5 TD game and you're left with 14 TDs in 10 starts. Project that over a full season and you're looking at 22 TD passes assuming a) no improvement and b) that the 5 TD game wasn't part of the data set.From a yardage standpoint, he was also consistent. He had 220 yards or more in all but one start, with several 300 yard passing games. If we again assume the low end, 220 yards, you're looking at 3,520 yards over a full 16 game slate.3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo assuming a) complete health and b) that he's not at risk of having Brad Johnson step in for him on short notice.
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Well thought out post. I am right there with you for his projections.I'll add....the upside is far greater than the downside as well.
 
Romo's first year starting, keep that in mind. Got his head a little too big for his body after all the Media Praise. The progression of a starting QB in the league is rapid from year to year. He has the skill set and demonstrated it last year. Games 12-17 QB comparison of the supposed he "tanked games".

Recomend - BUY LOW I dont throw out the High's and Lows. That is always a stats trick used by folks to make an argument that does not really exist. Whatever a person does in a specific situation should imply that that person has or does not have the talent to produce the same numbers or not at any given time. Lets throw out the Top 20 and bottom 20 percent of Joe Montana's games and then compare him to the AVG QB during that time frame. Flawed logic used simply to find a way to support any given argument. I watched every game TR played last year. There is more to him than some are given credit for, and less than some of his boosters. TR is top ten, really what does that mean in this decade of football. We all know Top 10 to 20 can be seperated by the smallest of margins, So What. Fantasy wise he will be a Low end number 1 this year, for Dallas, going thru camp as the starter will only improve his skills and reads. For them he will be a very good QB.

ROMO

Weeks 12-17

Pass yds TDS INT FMBL Lost

1553 11 8 3

Tom Brady

Pass yds TDS INT FMBL Lost

1235 5 3 1

Carson Palmer

Pass YDS

1442 10 6 1

Stats Dont lie, Carson a stud, Brady's a stud - ROMO may get there

ROMO this year 3700yds/28 td's/17 INTS

 
Overview/Background: It was indeed a tale of two seasons for Mr. Romo in 2006. After Cowboys fans suffered through Drew Bledsoe's best impersonation of the Statue of Liberty for five and a half games, Tony was thrust into the starting lineup in the second half against the Giants in Week 7. The small school prospect quickly made the most of his opportunity, passing for 270, 284, and 304 yards in weeks 8-10, respectively, sending Dallas faithful into Romo-mania. Two weeks later, Tony had an incredible day against Tampa Bay, throwing for an astounding 5 touchdowns. Suddenly, the Cowboys were trendy favorites to win the NFC, and Romo was named to the Pro Bowl.

Then the New Orleans Saints came to town, and a few folks questioned whether former Cowboys assistant Sean Payton might have something up his sleeve for his old pupil. It turned out that he did, as the Saints punished the Cowboys to the tune of 42-17,with Romo never really getting on track. Though he followed that game up with a good performance against Atlanta, Romo struggled mightily the following week against Philadelphia. Despite passing for over 300 yards, Romo was a key reason for an embarrassing week 17 loss to Detroit, losing two critical fumbles and throwing an interception. Finally, and most memorably, Romo muffed a hold on a game winning field goal attempt in a gut-wrenching playoff loss to Seattle. In a single season, Romo had gone from obscurity, to Pro-Bowl QB, and finally, to goat.

From a scouting perspective, Romo has solid size at 6'2 and 225, is a smart guy with good intangibles, and has a nice, quick release. Negatives include the fact that he's not much of a scrambler, and has at times shown rather questionable decision making (not unusual for a new QB).

Changes in 2007 First and foremost, Romo must deal with the transition from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips. Frankly, it is difficult to know precisely what effect this will have on the Cowboys' offensive scheme. Tony Sparano, who called the plays for Dallas last season (during which they averaged 26.4 ppg) has been demoted and replaced with Jason Garrett, who has just two years of NFL coaching experience under his belt. On the bright side, Garrett is a former NFL QB who will likely emphasize the passing game, which could well be a positive for Romo.

Romo will continue to have excellent, if aging, WR options to throw to in Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn. Jason Witten also returns as one of the game's better TE. Finally, the Cowboys have kept their offensive line largely intact by resigning Andre Gurode and Marc Colombo, while also bringing in Leonard Davis, who is expected to take over at right guard. In sum, Romo should have continuity from 2006 in terms of personnel.

Outlook for 2007 I've seen a lot of posts where people claim that teams "figured Romo out" in the second half of the season, and that as a result, Romo's 2007 numbers will look more like those he posted down the stretch in 2006. This seems to overlook the fact that Romo is a very young quarterback who was playing in his first season as a starter in 2006, and that he should benefit from having a year or so of experience under his belt. Teams may have a better read on Romo, but Romo should have a better read on the NFL as well.

As Jason Wood noted, Tony was fairly consistent last year, throwing for at least 220 yards in all but one game. I think he can average slightly better than that, which gets him over the 3500 yard mark. I don't think he can match his touchdown pace from last year, particularly with (again, as Wood noted) the 5 TD game. The turnover in the coaching staff makes projections tough, but at the end of the day, Tony is at the helm of a fairly potent offense. In sum, Romo should be a solid option for folks who wait until the middle rounds for their QB, providing solid week in and week out production. He's a QB1 in all leagues, with the possible exception of 8- teamers. And really, who plays in an 8 team league, anyway?

2007 Tony Romo Projection: 3,568 yards passing, 21 TD/15 Int, 144 yds rushing, 0 TD.

 
Thom Yorke said:
Overview/Background: It was indeed a tale of two seasons for Mr. Romo in 2006. After Cowboys fans suffered through Drew Bledsoe's best impersonation of the Statue of Liberty for five and a half games, Tony was thrust into the starting lineup in the second half against the Giants in Week 7. The small school prospect quickly made the most of his opportunity, passing for 270, 284, and 304 yards in weeks 8-10, respectively, sending Dallas faithful into Romo-mania. Two weeks later, Tony had an incredible day against Tampa Bay, throwing for an astounding 5 touchdowns. Suddenly, the Cowboys were trendy favorites to win the NFC, and Romo was named to the Pro Bowl.

Then the New Orleans Saints came to town, and a few folks questioned whether former Cowboys assistant Sean Payton might have something up his sleeve for his old pupil. It turned out that he did, as the Saints punished the Cowboys to the tune of 42-17,with Romo never really getting on track. Though he followed that game up with a good performance against Atlanta, Romo struggled mightily the following week against Philadelphia. Despite passing for over 300 yards, Romo was a key reason for an embarrassing week 17 loss to Detroit, losing two critical fumbles and throwing an interception. Finally, and most memorably, Romo muffed a hold on a game winning field goal attempt in a gut-wrenching playoff loss to Seattle. In a single season, Romo had gone from obscurity, to Pro-Bowl QB, and finally, to goat.

From a scouting perspective, Romo has solid size at 6'2 and 225, is a smart guy with good intangibles, and has a nice, quick release. Negatives include the fact that he's not much of a scrambler, and has at times shown rather questionable decision making (not unusual for a new QB).

Changes in 2007 First and foremost, Romo must deal with the transition from Bill Parcells to Wade Phillips. Frankly, it is difficult to know precisely what effect this will have on the Cowboys' offensive scheme. Tony Sparano, who called the plays for Dallas last season (during which they averaged 26.4 ppg) has been demoted and replaced with Jason Garrett, who has just two years of NFL coaching experience under his belt. On the bright side, Garrett is a former NFL QB who will likely emphasize the passing game, which could well be a positive for Romo.

Romo will continue to have excellent, if aging, WR options to throw to in Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn. Jason Witten also returns as one of the game's better TE. Finally, the Cowboys have kept their offensive line largely intact by resigning Andre Gurode and Marc Colombo, while also bringing in Leonard Davis, who is expected to take over at right guard. In sum, Romo should have continuity from 2006 in terms of personnel.

Outlook for 2007 I've seen a lot of posts where people claim that teams "figured Romo out" in the second half of the season, and that as a result, Romo's 2007 numbers will look more like those he posted down the stretch in 2006. This seems to overlook the fact that Romo is a very young quarterback who was playing in his first season as a starter in 2006, and that he should benefit from having a year or so of experience under his belt. Teams may have a better read on Romo, but Romo should have a better read on the NFL as well.

As Jason Wood noted, Tony was fairly consistent last year, throwing for at least 220 yards in all but one game. I think he can average slightly better than that, which gets him over the 3500 yard mark. I don't think he can match his touchdown pace from last year, particularly with (again, as Wood noted) the 5 TD game. The turnover in the coaching staff makes projections tough, but at the end of the day, Tony is at the helm of a fairly potent offense. In sum, Romo should be a solid option for folks who wait until the middle rounds for their QB, providing solid week in and week out production. He's a QB1 in all leagues, with the possible exception of 8- teamers. And really, who plays in an 8 team league, anyway?

2007 Tony Romo Projection: 3,568 yards passing, 21 TD/15 Int, 144 yds rushing, 0 TD.
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:goodposting:
 
Bankerguy said:
Jason Wood said:
David Yudkin said:
Byron_nyc said:
Ah, Tony Romo. 4 weeks of superstardom -- then opposing teams starting having tape to look and his stats settled down. He ended the year as Tony Ro-D'uh!, mishandling a snap that ended his team's season and Bill Parcells career. And you want him as your QB1?3650 pass yds, 22 tds, 17 ints.
Click to expand...
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.I've clicked on 2 QB Player Spotlight threads (this one and Campbell) and people have Romo and Campbell hitting both of these levels.Maybe they will both do it (and many others), but I have to wonder if enthusiam runs rampant on May 1st and throughout the preseason.
Click to expand...
I think this is an excellent point, and one I just made in the Jason Campbell thread. Objectively, I can't see how Campbell ranks any higher than the bottom third of projected NFL starters [not fantasy, but NFL aptitude] and yet the projections paint him to be a top 10 fantasy QB. Not going to happen.Obviously, Romo had a more impressive season and even made the Pro Bowl, so I'm less put off by the enthusiasm for him. The Cowboys did try to bolster the offensive line and threw a ton of money at Leonard Davis, as well as made some decent pickups via the draft. Will they gel? Not sure but it's an attempt.In 11 starts, Romo threw 19 TDs, and obviously his critics will point out his 5 TD game as an anomaly. So let's say they're right...throw out his 5 TD game and you're left with 14 TDs in 10 starts. Project that over a full season and you're looking at 22 TD passes assuming a) no improvement and b) that the 5 TD game wasn't part of the data set.From a yardage standpoint, he was also consistent. He had 220 yards or more in all but one start, with several 300 yard passing games. If we again assume the low end, 220 yards, you're looking at 3,520 yards over a full 16 game slate.3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo assuming a) complete health and b) that he's not at risk of having Brad Johnson step in for him on short notice.
Click to expand...
Well thought out post. I am right there with you for his projections.I'll add....the upside is far greater than the downside as well.
Click to expand...
:( I would also add that anyone wanting to get an effective gague of how good he is/can be just compare his YPA and completion percentages to last years top 5QB's Lets keep this on the low low if we can guys.
 
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Tiger Fan said:
FWIW, when you add Bledsoe and Romo's #s from last year they turn out as QB#3:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
Yeah, but those two guys couldn't have a more different approach to running an offense, and it's reflected in their numbers:
Code: 
+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+| Drew Bledsoe		 |  6 |  90 169  53.3 1164  6.9  7  8 |   8   28  2 || Tony Romo			| 16 | 220 337  65.3 2903  8.6 19 13 |  34  102  0 |+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+
I won't say that it's impossible for Romo to meet the combined totals for himself and Bledsoe in 2006, but I'm not quite expecting that either. One thing that I don't really have a handle on here, though, is what offensive "school" does Jason Garrett come out of. In the last years of his career he would have played in Sean Payton's offense on the Giants, and then either Chan Gailey's or Norv Turner's in Miami, until Saban arrived. But after Saban I'm not sure what offensive philosophy he adopted in Miami as a full time coach. Can anyone answer that for me?
 
redman said:
Tiger Fan said:
FWIW, when you add Bledsoe and Romo's #s from last year they turn out as QB#3:blackdot:
Click to expand...
Yeah, but those two guys couldn't have a more different approach to running an offense, and it's reflected in their numbers:
Code: 
+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+| Name				 |  G | CMP ATT   PCT YARD  Y/A TD IN | RSH YARD TD |+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+| Drew Bledsoe		 |  6 |  90 169  53.3 1164  6.9  7  8 |   8   28  2 || Tony Romo			| 16 | 220 337  65.3 2903  8.6 19 13 |  34  102  0 |+----------------------+----+-------------------------------+-------------+
I won't say that it's impossible for Romo to meet the combined totals for himself and Bledsoe in 2006, but I'm not quite expecting that either. One thing that I don't really have a handle on here, though, is what offensive "school" does Jason Garrett come out of. In the last years of his career he would have played in Sean Payton's offense on the Giants, and then either Chan Gailey's or Norv Turner's in Miami, until Saban arrived. But after Saban I'm not sure what offensive philosophy he adopted in Miami as a full time coach. Can anyone answer that for me?
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yeah I wasn't suggesting a #3 ranking for Romo by any means, but 6-10 isn't really out of the question...and just wanted to raise that point...as it seems a lot of people are negative towards Romo.
 
Tony Romo took over for Bledsoe in week 7 (11 games) and averaged 261 YPG and threw for 2 or more TD in 6 of those games (he also threw for 2 + INTs in 4 of those games). He only passed for more than 300 yds three times in that span and had his worst week in week 16 against Atlanta. He will be working with a new coach and OC this year. Expect Tony to go through some growing pains this year as he is going into his second season (and first full season) as starter.

3600 Passing Yds 25TD 20 Int 93 Rush Yds 2 TD

 
3750 passing, 28tds 18ints, 240 yards rushing 3 tds

I thought he looked really good and looks like a guy that has "IT", he will only get better next year imo.

 
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.

 
Phurfur said:
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.
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Is the pro game too fast for Jay Cutler, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, too? Because Romo [like those guys] got his first PT last year after not getting most of the 1st team reps in camp. And, of the five, Romo's production was by far the most impressive.
 
mozzy84 said:
3750 passing, 28tds 18ints, 240 yards rushing 3 tdsI thought he looked really good and looks like a guy that has "IT", he will only get better next year imo.
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I'm higher on Romo than the average FBG staffer...but this is likely top 2-3 numbers. I'm not that high...Romo: 3350-24-15 pass176-1 rush.
 
Jason Wood said:
Phurfur said:
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.
Click to expand...
Is the pro game too fast for Jay Cutler, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, too? Because Romo [like those guys] got his first PT last year after not getting most of the 1st team reps in camp. And, of the five, Romo's production was by far the most impressive.
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Cutler and Leinard no, I don't know about the others. Now three of these guys were 1st year players Romo was in his fourth. The fact remains he was exposed to the pro game and the offense he ran for four years. I know Dallas fans want to project him as a rookie but that was not the case, he was "groomed" for three years. So I feel Romo will be good not great. I am basing my opiion on the fact that Romo looked lost on the field far too may times and that was usually when he made his mistakes.
 
Phurfur said:
Jason Wood said:
Phurfur said:
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.
Click to expand...
Is the pro game too fast for Jay Cutler, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, too? Because Romo [like those guys] got his first PT last year after not getting most of the 1st team reps in camp. And, of the five, Romo's production was by far the most impressive.
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Cutler and Leinard no, I don't know about the others. Now three of these guys were 1st year players Romo was in his fourth. The fact remains he was exposed to the pro game and the offense he ran for four years. I know Dallas fans want to project him as a rookie but that was not the case, he was "groomed" for three years. So I feel Romo will be good not great. I am basing my opiion on the fact that Romo looked lost on the field far too may times and that was usually when he made his mistakes.
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Unlike the others, all Romo needs to do is maintain his performance and he's a Pro Bowl caliber player.
 
Jason Wood said:
Phurfur said:
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.
Click to expand...
Is the pro game too fast for Jay Cutler, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Leinart and Jason Campbell, too? Because Romo [like those guys] got his first PT last year after not getting most of the 1st team reps in camp. And, of the five, Romo's production was by far the most impressive.
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FWIW, here are the PPG averages for the newer QBs that took over at some point last year from the point they were starters. Young's is misleading because he played partially games early in the season.Romo 19.20Cutler 17.11Leinart 15.89Young 15.04Campbell 14.84Jackson 8.83
 
Phurfur said:
Too many people are using last year's stats as their sole criteria to projecting this year's stats. Lost in the shuffle is the fact that he will be running a whole new system under a new coach. That said I think his numbers should be adjusted down from last year. I don't think the new coaching staff will out peform last years. I have him ranked as QB #12. This could change if they show a high powered passing offense in the preseason. My personal opion of Tony Romo is that the Pro game is too fast for him and he will be a good QB but never a great QB. Right now I would not feel comfortable with him as my #1 QB.
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I agree with everything you said except the bolded part. Romo to me looks good. I don't kwow if he'll be "great" (however that's defined), but with him I don't sense a guy who looks overwhelmed by the speed of the pro game. There are two things that have me concerned about him. One, as you said, is the coaching change (and I'm still waiting on an answer to my question about Garrett's offensive "school", BTW). I think most people are underestimating, as usual, the effect of a coaching change on an offense.

Second, though, unlike the other players Wood mentioned (Cutler, Jackson, Campbell, Leinart), Romo experienced a rather dramatic increase in INT's in his last five of his 10 starts; the TD/INT ratio for the first five starts was an outstanding 10/2; for the last five it was 9/11. It has me wondering whether the defensive coaches were figuring out wrinkles to add that mixed him up.

I don't think, projected across 16 starts, he's either as good as his first 5 starts or as bad as his last 5. I think he'll throw more TD's than INT's, and I note that his yardage totals didn't change much across all 10 starts. Assuming there's not a huge change in offensive philosophy with Garrett, but also assuming a somewhat slow start due to that change, I'll project him as follows:

325/515/3950 25/21 60/180/1

The part of his stats that I struggled the most with was his yardage. The number of attempts I project him at multiplied by last year's 8.6 ypa clip gives you over 4400 yards. If there's any number of his that I must be skeptical of him repeating, it's that ypa number. As a frame of reference, Joe Montana only achieved it once; Elway never achieved it. As a result, I'm predicting the "appropriate" number of yards for him - still an impressive number at 3950 - and simply accepting the still very solid 7.67 ypa that it correllates with.

 
Regardless of what you think of his skill set, Romo has an excellent supporting cast, he has a great-after-the-catch guy in TO, has a playmaking TE, has two RB's who are both players in the NFL and a speedster in Terry Glenn, he is in one of those situations where his supporting cast alone will allow him to be a decent fantasy option..

 
Righetti said:
Regardless of what you think of his skill set, Romo has an excellent supporting cast, he has a great-after-the-catch guy in TO, has a playmaking TE, has two RB's who are both players in the NFL and a speedster in Terry Glenn, he is in one of those situations where his supporting cast alone will allow him to be a decent fantasy option..
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:yes:
 
There have been several comments in this thread about Romo having to learn a whole new system and offense. Thats not really the case.

Dallas has kept on its staff Tony Sporano who called the plays last year and was the o-line coach and running game coordinator. He has experience calling plays and knows well what Romo does.

Yes, Garrett is nominally the OC. But he is going to be learning a new role this year. Do you think Dallas, with Super Bowl aspirations, is going to trust an inexperienced guy or the experienced one that they thought enough of to keep him around despite the coaching change? Think enough of that they've denied several teams permission to interview?

If you read the comments that Garrett was making about the offense, you'll see that they plan on keeping the same offense they've been running. Garrett will add a few wrinkles that he's picked up, but the majority of the offense will be the same.

One can make an arguement that New Orleans provided a roadmap on how to defend Romo. They did to a degree. But another very strong explanation for Romo's late decline was Dallas' defensive meltdown. The late-year defense was getting scored upon almost at-will. This forced Dallas' offense to play catch-up and be more aggressive. When teams know you're going to pass, it gets a whole lot harder to be successful doing that.

So what will Romo's 2007 number be? A good starting point would be Dallas' total stats from last year. That may be a touch high because they had very good injury luck last year. Can you count on TO and Glenn playing almost every game again? Can their replacements, Hurd and Austin be counted on if needed? (Crayton probably stays in same role as 3rd receiver.) I suspect the young guys will be serviceable, but no way can they threaten a defense like TO and Glenn can.

At the end of the day, Romo will likely be a QB1. The offense is very potent. Romo is a very hard worker and has been at Valley Ranch as much if not more than any other Dallas player this offseason. He seems to have learned from his slide late last year. So I would not count on Romo regressing. He may not have the horses around him because of health. But he will be very successful if they do stay healthy.

 
Do you believe that the muffed hold from last season will have any impact on this season?

I think he uses it as a motivating factor and sets out to right his wrongs.

On the other hand, maybe it will linger on his mind and shake his confidence.

 
newteech said:
Do you believe that the muffed hold from last season will have any impact on this season?I think he uses it as a motivating factor and sets out to right his wrongs.On the other hand, maybe it will linger on his mind and shake his confidence.
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Considering he won't have the holding duties anymore, how could it?
 
Jason Wood said:
3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo
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If this was his over and under in Vegas, I'd hammer the over on boths of these totals. These are Philly Fan projections!!!!I'm not here to say 4000 yards but if he's healthy, he's going over 3500 yards and 22 td's.
 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Jason Wood said:
3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo
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If this was his over and under in Vegas, I'd hammer the over on boths of these totals. These are Philly Fan projections!!!!I'm not here to say 4000 yards but if he's healthy, he's going over 3500 yards and 22 td's.
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Hey Iwanna, can you cool it with the Philly Fan schtick? Honestly, you know I take my projections seriously.If you read through the whole thread, I am SUPPORTING Romo's case [and take a look at the Jason Campbell thread for more detail on how much I like Romo]. I said those projections are the baseline. I would have difficult seeing him fall below them if he stays healthy. There is plenty of reason to argue he will surpass them, too...but I have the feeling that you'll be able to draft Romo at a great value in redrafts if you're comfortable with 3,500 and 22.
 
Jason Wood said:
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Jason Wood said:
3,500 yards and 22 TDs would, to me, be a reasonable baseline for projecting Romo
Click to expand...
If this was his over and under in Vegas, I'd hammer the over on boths of these totals. These are Philly Fan projections!!!!I'm not here to say 4000 yards but if he's healthy, he's going over 3500 yards and 22 td's.
Click to expand...
Hey Iwanna, can you cool it with the Philly Fan schtick? Honestly, you know I take my projections seriously.If you read through the whole thread, I am SUPPORTING Romo's case [and take a look at the Jason Campbell thread for more detail on how much I like Romo]. I said those projections are the baseline. I would have difficult seeing him fall below them if he stays healthy. There is plenty of reason to argue he will surpass them, too...but I have the feeling that you'll be able to draft Romo at a great value in redrafts if you're comfortable with 3,500 and 22.
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Wood is good people. He wouldn't let his Philly fandom affect his projections. In fact, as I said earlier in thread his baseline projections look pretty bang on. I do think there is upside to that baseline though. Romo shold be a solid QB 5-7 imo.
 
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redman said:
newteech said:
Do you believe that the muffed hold from last season will have any impact on this season?I think he uses it as a motivating factor and sets out to right his wrongs.On the other hand, maybe it will linger on his mind and shake his confidence.
Click to expand...
Considering he won't have the holding duties anymore, how could it?
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It's not so much the holding duty -- it's the fact that his single blunder cost his team a playoff game. Just wondering what kind of impact (if any) it will have on his psyche
 
Something crossed my mind recently regarding Romo when it was mentioned that his and Bledsoe's #s would have been Top 3.

Can anyone name the last QB that had TO for a full season that didn't end up in the Top 5?

Trick question. To the best of my knowledge, every QB that has had TO for a full season has landed in the Top 5 at the end.

Just saying.....

 
It seems the guys like Romo who watch and learn for a couple of years have better success.

Romo should have 22 TDs, 2 Rushing TDs 3700 yards. 13 INTs.

 
David Yudkin said:
Since it's the start of a new year and a new set of Player Spotlights, I figured I'd get my kvetching out of the way early. How many QBs had 3650/22 last year? Any guesses? The answer is 6.
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Ten teams had 3650+ passing yards and twelve teams had 22+ passing TDs. (The Cowboys themselves had 4067/26.)
 
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Tiger Fan said:
FWIW, when you add Bledsoe and Romo's #s from last year they turn out as QB#3:unsure:
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True, but if you add Garcia, Feeley and McNabb's #s from last year and Vick and Schaub's #s from last year, Romo falls to QB#5. Romo also ranks 5th in FP per adjusted game, behind McNabb, Manning, Brees and Vick.
 
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