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Interesting supposition; although I'm not sure the numbers back you up:Passing Stats on 1st and 2nd Down, 2006
did the math to prove you wrong Wood, but killed my own argument instead. I went by yards per completion instead and got Campbell at 11.2, Leinart @ 12.0, Romo @ 12.8 and Cutler @ 14.0. Difference is that Leinart had the benefit of the best WR duo in the NFL, and Romo went to the pro-bowl. I think you'll have to draft those guys a little higher if you want them. Cutler seems to be the best value FF wise. NFL wise, I go with my eyes, not #s. In which case, Romo had a better team and I grade him individually as a B. Leinart fared very well for a rookie, but his WRs made him look better than he was, and he gets a C+. Cutler has an A for an arm, but I didn't see enough of him to judge but for the sake of argument, I'll go B+ given his #s and ARM! Campbell, I have watched a lot of. He's not the sexiest woman at the dance, but the more you talk to her, the better she looks. Not all of the measurables are off the charts, but I am confident in giving him a B- right now. His progression takes him to an A or A- in the next couple years.ETA - Since you found all their #s for 1st and 2nd downs, what do the total #s look like (1st-4th downs)?
And yet your Eagles made the playoffs with Jeff Garcia... Interesting. For the record, I'd be surprised if Campbell doesn't outperform half of your list. Campbell's best attribute last season was his pocket presence, and half the guys you've picked ahead of him can't dodge a runaway shopping cart at the local Kroger's - much less NFL D-linemen for 16 games.QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]Spoken like a true Eagles fan.Jason Wood said:Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.
eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith
Jason Wood said:
Over the last five years, those numbers would come out to about QB15.
I'd say that is right about where he belongs. He has potential to be a QB1 this year IMO, but there is no way he will be drafted as such. QB15 would mean he is a solid QB2.
I'd guess most of those guys got reps with 1st team the year they were thrust into the lineup. Washington notoriously does not do this. Until he actually started, Campbell had run virtually zero plays with the 1st team offense. That's not the typical "2nd year starter" situation. I'm not sure he's on track to be the world beater some of the others are in this thread, but I do think his situation is different than most and it is hard to get a handle on what he might be able to do. Personally, I think Moss in underrated as a WR1, and I also buy into the argument that the "KC" offense takes a little while to develop (even aside from the new QB).
BTW, it's interesting to note that those who watched a lot of Campbell last year (or even through college) all agree he's likely to improve and be a good QB. In that regard, he reminds me of Philip Rivers last offseason. I remember Maurile making the argument that everyone close to Rivers who saw him play a lot were very high on him. Still, many on these boards doubted what Rivers could do. So far, those who watched him a lot are right. As a Skins fan, I hope the same is true for Campbell.
Your leagues reward points for passer rating? Cool.
My bad Jason. We'll alternate between unadulterated fantasy football discussion and "real NFL prowess" whenever it's convenient for you. Please let me know what setting we're on now so I can play along.Your leagues reward points for passer rating? Cool.
It's a fair indication of future success which is what we're all trying to figure out now.Your leagues reward points for passer rating? Cool.
So, how are you going to make your projections?
I'm not sure you can look at his ppg last year as the floor in such a small sample size. A lot of his value last year stemmed from his TD and his yeardage was nowhere near as good. And there's nothing to say that he automatically has to improve.
there goes your street credibility 3200 yards24 td's 300 rushing2 td'sQBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]:Brady Quinn -Spoken like a true Eagles fan.Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.
Ben Roethlisberger :11: Tony Romo
Eli Manning
Trent Green
Michael Vick
Brady Quinn
Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]
Steve McNair
Jon Kitna
Alex Smith
Gibbs is not one to give unsolicited praise beyond the most general and benign things, particularly to his young QB's, so this is notable. Again, a guarantee of nothing, but Campbell at least is doing everything he can to improve.
Here's the thing . . . those numbers account for 298 fantasy points in the FBG scoring system prior to deductions for interceptions (-1 per INT). If we give him 18 INT, that would give him 280 fantasy points. Last year he would have ranked as the #7 fantasy QB.Now, I'm not dissing on Jason Campbell, but do people really think of him as a Top 7 fantasy QB?
that's an average of 200 yards/game and 1.5 td passes/game. 8 games he'll go 180/18 games he'll go 220/2doesn't seem to be the stuff of a #7 qb to methen again, I'm a homer
Well, it sure SOUNDS easy enough, right?In 2006:- 11 QB had 3,200 passing yards- 6 had 24 passing TD- 2 had 300 rushing yards- 13 had 2 rushing TDSo basically, Campbell would have been above average in ALL of those areas. As a Campbell owner in at least 3 leagues, I hope you are right because I won't need to look for another QB.that's an average of 200 yards/game and 1.5 td passes/game. 8 games he'll go 180/18 games he'll go 220/2doesn't seem to be the stuff of a #7 qb to methen again, I'm a homer
this is why I rarely participate in these threads...I feel confident in one of my predictions from 5 minutes agoWell, it sure SOUNDS easy enough, right?In 2006:- 11 QB had 3,200 passing yards- 6 had 24 passing TD- 2 had 300 rushing yards- 13 had 2 rushing TDSo basically, Campbell would have been above average in ALL of those areas. As a Campbell owner in at least 3 leagues, I hope you are right because I won't need to look for another QB.that's an average of 200 yards/game and 1.5 td passes/game. 8 games he'll go 180/18 games he'll go 220/2doesn't seem to be the stuff of a #7 qb to methen again, I'm a homer
Please continue to participate as it adds to the discussion. Clearly you are in the camp that he will do well (although the projections might be a tad high) and that's the important thing. We are all here collectively to try to decipher how each player will do this year and to consider all opinions and perspectives. Many times I think the projections will tend to work themselves out on their own, as some people will have them way too high and others way too low and the average will be a closer reflection of what people think.this is why I rarely participate in these threads...I feel confident in one of my predictions from 5 minutes agoWell, it sure SOUNDS easy enough, right?In 2006:- 11 QB had 3,200 passing yards- 6 had 24 passing TD- 2 had 300 rushing yards- 13 had 2 rushing TDSo basically, Campbell would have been above average in ALL of those areas. As a Campbell owner in at least 3 leagues, I hope you are right because I won't need to look for another QB.that's an average of 200 yards/game and 1.5 td passes/game. 8 games he'll go 180/18 games he'll go 220/2doesn't seem to be the stuff of a #7 qb to methen again, I'm a homer
John Kitna was QB6 in my dynasty league last year. How many people were projecting that vs. ridiculing those who did? Are you enthralled with Bulger's QB'ing talent such that there are only 2 NFL QB's that you'd take above him? I'm not, and yet he was QB3. Projections assume 16 starts. 10 out of the top 10 QB's started all 16 of their games; only 4 out of the QB's ranked 11-20 started all of their games. It looks to me like being a top fantasy performer is tied just as much to opportunity as to talent. Obviously you discount to the extent that you figure a guy will miss starts. With Campbell, however, he has zero injury history, a solid o-line with good continuity in front of him, and an excellent tandem of RB's to keep the defenses off of him. He also has nobody on the bench to make him fear for his job. I think he starts 16 games, and has for example a much higher chance of doing that than does McNabb, a guy who's going to get drafted much higher (and who was outperformed by Kitna last year). I happen to think Campbell has the makings of a pretty damn good NFL QB too, but even if you disagree with where his potential ends, what I've recited above pretty much summarizes why it's quite feasible for Campbell to end up in the top 7 in preseason rankings.
Not until 2009 or 2010. In 2008 he'll be ~15. I think people are really sleeping on the Redskins O. Portis, Moss, Cooley have been productive with horrible QB play for the last couple years. And this is the first year in a while that the coaching staff/core offensive positions have been stable. I expect a big leap forward for Campbell over the next two years.
Gosh I wish some of those old threads weren't deleted. I got bashed and bashed for saying that Culpepper was "only" a top 10 overall QB(real life, not FF) instead of a top 3 like everyone thought. Crazy how overrated he used to be.
I had Kitna ranked #5 or #6 all of last preseason and people thought I had three heads. Anyone that ever saw the numbers a Mike Martz system has produced should have had an inkling what was coming. I outlined numerous times what he had done in the past and with lesser known and less proven QBs.If we look at the Redskins offense, they've been a Bottom 10 passing team and ranked Bottom 10 in points scored in recent years. I understand that Saunders has tie-ins to Vermeil/Martz, and maybe the Skins will morph into an offensive jaugernaut soon. But they certainly didn't show signs of it last year.Stranger things have happened than Campbell ranking in the Top 10, so anything can happen . . .
Not this year, no. I can see him being between QB10 and QB20 this year as I posted earlier. In future years it'll depend on his progress, his O-line, the coaching staff (if they remain fairly constant or there's a big turnover), somewhat on the WR's, more on the running game (how effective it is). I don't think QB7 is impossible in the future, no. I think he's a learner, is fairly talented, has the respect of his teammates and the coaching staff, and works hard.
53.1 and 6.3 If after his third year playing, if he's at 57.7% and 6.2 ypa, what will you think of him?
2005 was a different story. When the team remained healthy and they'd settled into Gibbs' system, here was the result:
Mark Brunell +---------------------------------------+-----------------+ | Passing | Rushing |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+| 2005 was | 16 | 262 454 57.7 3050 6.7 23 10 | 42 111 0 |+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+I just call em like I see em
I respect differing opinions. I think they bring depth to this website.I think this was a hater post and would love it if Redman remembers this one at the end of next season and even more if he remembers it at the end of the '08 seasonI just call em like I see emx2, MOP.
A hater post? Why would I hate Jason Campbell? As a FF owner I want as many good players in the league as possible. Not all QBs turn into Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, you would agree with this yes? I just don't see where all of this enthusiasm is coming from. Washingotn looks like a strong candidate for an under .500 record this season. Show me where I'm wrong...Redman knows me well enough on these boards that when I see actual evidence of something that differs from my opinion I tend to back off. I am not a blind hater of Campbell but he has to be a nominee for one of the 5-10 worst starting QBs in the league right now, no? Maybe he can make the jump to the middle of the pack quickly.I respect differing opinions. I think they bring depth to this website.I think this was a hater post and would love it if Redman remembers this one at the end of next season and even more if he remembers it at the end of the '08 seasonI just call em like I see em
I am an advocate of Campbell's because I've watched him play - in college and a little in the pros. He has, like I said at the top of this thread, an above-average arm, above-average accuracy, good pocket awareness, makes fairly good decisions, learned against S.E.C. competition (in my opinion, and many, many others', easily the best defensive conference), been able to successfully grasp and perform a new offense EVERY YEAR OF HIS CAREER, and now has the opportunity to learn Al Saunders' offense for consecutive seasons. If you need to see him play, rather than regurgitating #s, then please do. I don't judge football by #s as much as by what I see. #s lie an awful lot.A hater post? Why would I hate Jason Campbell? As a FF owner I want as many good players in the league as possible. Not all QBs turn into Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, you would agree with this yes? I just don't see where all of this enthusiasm is coming from. Washingotn looks like a strong candidate for an under .500 record this season. Show me where I'm wrong...Redman knows me well enough on these boards that when I see actual evidence of something that differs from my opinion I tend to back off. I am not a blind hater of Campbell but he has to be a nominee for one of the 5-10 worst starting QBs in the league right now, no? Maybe he can make the jump to the middle of the pack quickly.I respect differing opinions. I think they bring depth to this website.I think this was a hater post and would love it if Redman remembers this one at the end of next season and even more if he remembers it at the end of the '08 seasonI just call em like I see emx2, MOP.
good vibes on Campbell bad vibes on Campbell
I'll have to disagree with you here. I don't see MOP hating anybody, he just has one of the more extremely skeptical views of Campbell that's out there. We've already seen that there's a full spectrum of opinion on Campbell, just like one would expect from a guy who made some nice plays but also has some questionable stats after only seven games, and on a team with plenty of questions to answer. He'll disagree but I think part of it is from ignorance. My sense from reading this thread is that a lot of the doubters also tend to be people who have seen relatively little actual game play of Campbell. The stat lines don't show the whole story here given the small sample size.Not to worry, though. I've definitelyI respect differing opinions. I think they bring depth to this website.I think this was a hater post and would love it if Redman remembers this one at the end of next season and even more if he remembers it at the end of the '08 seasonI just call em like I see em
'd this thread and will be checking back in, be it to bask in the glory of my own football greatness or to eat my crow. 
Since when do the Redskins have to get better for him to sniff 20 TDs, considering he was on pace for 23 last year.Now, I do happen to think they'll get better with a healthy Portis and a healthy Moss, but even if it doesn't I'm just trying to figure out why a guy averaging 2.3 TDs in an offense can't average 2.0 TDs (or in your words, even *sniff* 2.0 TDs) in the offense unless it gets better...
I agree with that.
