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FBG Rookie Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
RBs with marginal talent can fade rather quickly.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I don't think anyone is seriously comparing Irons to Dillon on any level. Pasquino threw out Dillon's name to prop up his "Rudi is stud" assertions. However most people that follow football know that 138 carry 2 TD season in 2003 season was an anomaly. Irons isn't likely to be nealy as productive as Dillon in his career. However he will likely have many more productie seasons than Dillon did in 03.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
9 spots lower than Ken Darby?
EBF
Footballguy
Sometimes you have to wait a year or two on a dynasty prospect (In fact, you usually have to wait a year or two. Instant production is the exception, and not the norm). But that's not adequate justification for ranking a guy dozens of spots below where his talent vs. opportunity dictates he should be ranked. Consider the success of guys like Ahman Green, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and Brian Westbrook. While a couple of these guys entered the league with much more fanfare that Irons, all of them were forced to sit on the bench for at least a year or two. Even so, they still went on to become some of the most valuable FF players of their era. If prospective owners had merely looked at the short-term situation and balked, then they would've missed out big time. Obviously it would be presumptuous to assume that Irons will have the same kind of success, but I think you're taking a slightly narrow-minded and short-term approach to your dynasty ranking of this particular player. To me, it boils down to this:1. RB is the most valuable position in FF.2. Kenny Irons is one of the best RBs in this draft class.Conclusion: Kenny Irons is one of the most valuable rookies in this draft class. It's nothing personal, but I disagree with your ranking of this particular player. Here are some of the guys you have ranked ahead of him:9. Lorenzo Booker11. Chris Henry 15. Antonio Pittman24. Dwayne Wright26. Kenneth Darby 32. Justise Hairston This doesn't really add up for me. Every one of these guys was drafted below Irons (some of them several rounds below). Additionally, of this bunch, only Chris Henry appears to have legitimate opportunity for short-term playing time. Pittman, Wright, Darby, and Hairston are just as buried as Irons on the depth chart. And IMO, those guys are all inferior talents (draft position isn't a perfect indicator of talent, but it's better than average and it agrees with my opinion). I just think you're missing the boat here. I can't conceive of myself even considering Pittman, Wright, Darby, or Hairston before Irons. Even if you're a major skeptic, his early draft position coupled with his supporting cast almost forces a top 20 ranking. My 2 cents.
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EBF
Footballguy
And a quick note on opportunity:
IMO, you have to break opportunity down into two different categories.
1. Chance to play
2. Chance to excel
Entering their rookie seasons, most people would've said Kevin Jones had the edge over Steven Jackson in the opportunity category. After all, Jones looked like a good favorite to start from day one, whereas Jackson was likely to split carries with Marshall Faulk for at least a year or two.
But that's only half the equation. Because while Jones had the higher chance to play, I'd argue that he had the lower chance to excel. Jackson clearly landed on a better team with a better supporting cast that would give him more (and better) scoring opportunities in the event that he became the starter.
So in the long run, the oppotunity component of the talent vs. opportunity ultimately seems to have favored Jackson. Because once he got the starting role, he had a much better opportunity to excel.
How is this relevant to our discussion?
Kenny Irons has a cloudy path to playing time, but if he somehow manages to earn the starting role, he scores well in the "chance to excel" component of opportunity. His supporting cast is among the best in the NFL, meaning he should have a great opportunity to produce if he gets playing time for the Bengals in the next couple of years.
IMO, you have to break opportunity down into two different categories.
1. Chance to play
2. Chance to excel
Entering their rookie seasons, most people would've said Kevin Jones had the edge over Steven Jackson in the opportunity category. After all, Jones looked like a good favorite to start from day one, whereas Jackson was likely to split carries with Marshall Faulk for at least a year or two.
But that's only half the equation. Because while Jones had the higher chance to play, I'd argue that he had the lower chance to excel. Jackson clearly landed on a better team with a better supporting cast that would give him more (and better) scoring opportunities in the event that he became the starter.
So in the long run, the oppotunity component of the talent vs. opportunity ultimately seems to have favored Jackson. Because once he got the starting role, he had a much better opportunity to excel.
How is this relevant to our discussion?
Kenny Irons has a cloudy path to playing time, but if he somehow manages to earn the starting role, he scores well in the "chance to excel" component of opportunity. His supporting cast is among the best in the NFL, meaning he should have a great opportunity to produce if he gets playing time for the Bengals in the next couple of years.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Contract Information for Rudi Johnson 3/16/2005: Signed a five-year, $26 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2007: $3.55 million, 2008: $3.2 million, 2009: $3.6 million, 2010: Free Agent. Johnson has a cap charge of $4.8 million in 2009.
His salary has minimal escalation from 2007 to 2009, so there's little reason to think he won't see every dollar.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
That depends on your definition of your outlook.I have a 4-year outlook that I try to adhere to. In this case, I think his probability of contributing significantly on Cincinnati is Top 40 RB at best for the next 3 years.Since I give 90% of my weighting to the next 3 years, I have him very low. If I had ample room on a roster, I'd stash him, but that's a different scenario.Do I think he has talent? Yes. Is this a good place to show it? No.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
The last 3 years for Rudi Johnson in Cincinnati:
Year Carries (by RB) Receptions (by RB)2007 341 232006 337 232005 361 15Rest of Team RBs:
If the organization didn't believe in Rudi, why are they giving him 83-92% of the carries for 3 years running?
Now you can make a case that the other RBs do better as receivers, but remember that FBG scoring is non-PPR.
Yes, the NFL is becoming a 2-RB league. Yes Irons has talent. But, given all the other situations he could have gone into, I find it hard to believe he'll contribute significantly in the next 3 years.
Year Carries (by RB) Receptions (by RB)2007 341 232006 337 232005 361 15Rest of Team RBs:
Code:
Year Carries (by RB) Receptions (by RB)2007 52 382006 70 632005 31 44Now you can make a case that the other RBs do better as receivers, but remember that FBG scoring is non-PPR.
Yes, the NFL is becoming a 2-RB league. Yes Irons has talent. But, given all the other situations he could have gone into, I find it hard to believe he'll contribute significantly in the next 3 years.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
CC,That's an entirely different question than the one I was answering here.9 spots lower than Ken Darby?
EBF
Footballguy
I think it's important to remember that anything can happen in the NFL. Anyone is liable to go down at any time. Ahman Green, Larry Johnson, and Shaun Alexander only rose to prominence once the starters they were backing up got injuried. Rudi has a great build for the RB position, but anything can happen. Also, I think your 4 year approach is hazardous. Not that many prospects make major contributions for their first 1-3 years. And for every instant star like Edgerrin James, there are a handful of guys who take years to peak (LaMont Jordan, Michael Turner, Chester Taylor, Ahman Green, Tiki Barber, Brian Westbrook). You'll miss out on a hefty chunk of value if you skip every RB who doesn't have a clear path to a starting job. Opportunity is critical, but good players ultimately earn playing time. I can't think of a single great player who has failed in FF because he was never given a chance to play. Anyhow, even if you're arguing the 4 year window theory, I sense some inconsistency here, because you have a guy like Pittman ranked 15th despite the fact that he's the 3rd-4th best RB on his team. The same applies to Darby and Wright. I'm sticking with my stance that Irons should be ranked somewhere between 5th-15th in this year's class. Even though his short-term opportunity looks suspect, he's one of the most talented RBs in the draft and should be drafted accordingly.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I don't see why this is so complicated for you, Jeff. Salaries are about guaranteed money. AN increased salary spike sometimes causes players to be cut, but often it doesn't. Many times teams will cut a player when they are near the end of contract because they don't have a big signing bonus hit. Johnson has a cap charge of 4.8 million in 2009- your own post confirms this. I realize used the wrong language before, saying base contract, but the premise is not different. If he is cut in 2009, the team will save at least 2.4 against the cap- perhaps more if part of 12 million guaranteed was roster bonus and not signing bonus. Palmer and TJ will both be up for new contract in 09 and CJ in 10. I see Rudi as the odd man out in that equation. If Irons can put up 3.8 YPC on 220 carries and Watson (or whoever) can do the same on 120 carries, they will be equally attractive but far cheaper alternatives. I don't think Rudi sees that year at that price. I know your are convinced he is a stud and he will. We will see.
3/16/2005: Signed a five-year, $26 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2007: $3.55 million, 2008: $3.2 million, 2009: $3.6 million, 2010: Free Agent. Johnson has a cap charge of $4.8 million in 2009.His salary has minimal escalation from 2007 to 2009, so there's little reason to think he won't see every dollar.
EBF
Footballguy
Corey Dillon had almost 1,000 carries in the three years before Rudi Johnson took his job. Rudi was on the roster for two of those seasons. He had 17 carries over that two year span.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Your simplification of complexity complicates your argument.I don't see why this is so complicated for you, Jeff. Salaries are about guaranteed money. AN increased salary spike sometimes causes players to be cut, but often it doesn't. Many times teams will cut a player when they are near the end of contract because they don't have a big signing bonus hit. Johnson has a cap charge of 4.8 million in 2009- your own post confirms this. I realize used the wrong language before, saying base contract, but the premise is not different. If he is cut in 2009, the team will save at least 2.4 against the cap- perhaps more if part of 12 million guaranteed was roster bonus and not signing bonus. Palmer and TJ will both be up for new contract in 09 and CJ in 10. I see Rudi as the odd man out in that equation. If Irons can put up 3.8 YPC on 220 carries and Watson (or whoever) can do the same on 120 carries, they will be equally attractive but far cheaper alternatives. I don't think Rudi sees that year at that price. I know your are convinced he is a stud and he will. We will see.
3/16/2005: Signed a five-year, $26 million contract. The deal includes $12 million in guarantees. 2007: $3.55 million, 2008: $3.2 million, 2009: $3.6 million, 2010: Free Agent. Johnson has a cap charge of $4.8 million in 2009.His salary has minimal escalation from 2007 to 2009, so there's little reason to think he won't see every dollar.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
This would be a more worthwhile theory if you were talking about a successful team, like NE, Pittsburgh or Indy. (Although all of those teams jettisoned featured backs during their playoff runs.) This "magic 3 years of Rudi" features two 8-8 seasons where they miss the playoffs and a 1 and done in 2005. Cincy isn't beholden to some system of doing things, because they are not winning. If Rudi is clearly better than Irons, then he will keep playing. Rudi is going to have to do a whole lot better than 3.8 YPC to keep getting 330 carries. I don't think he can.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Let's take a look at a Dynasty perspective for a minute.
Let's say you have 14-17 players that are solid contributors on your roster (potential starters any given week) including K and D.
Now you have 4-6 slots for role players or handcuffs or backups - possibly even a project or two.
Now you have room for 3-4 draft picks to "stow away" on your 25 man roster. These are your rookies, fliers and projects.
You draft Kenny Irons thinking you'll stow him away for several years.
A year goes by, and now you have a problem at this similar time of year in 2008. You need to cut 4 players to make room for your rookie picks. Do you hold Irons who didn't do anything in Year 1 and hope for Year 2? Ok, sure you say that is fine and you do it. You cut someone who produced more in 2007 to keep Irons.
Now 12 months later - you're draft went well and 2008 was a banner year for talent. 3 or 4 of your rookies you kept and they excelled.
Same problem now. Your roster is chock full of good talent and you need to make room for draft picks in 2009.
Irons hasn't done anything yet, so you're pinched - you know he's got talent and it is situation killing him, right?
Well, his situation is costing you a roster spot on a guy that might be developing to more production faster.
The roster management aspect is critical in Dynasty play - if I had 40 roster spots and ample room to tuck away Irons (especially in a 16 team league) I'd rank him higher.
Given FBG rules of 12 teams, I'm drawing on personal experience with 24-26 man rosters and no taxi squad / development squad option.
Irons costs me the ability to possibly find another prospect while he awaits his chance.
Let's say you have 14-17 players that are solid contributors on your roster (potential starters any given week) including K and D.
Now you have 4-6 slots for role players or handcuffs or backups - possibly even a project or two.
Now you have room for 3-4 draft picks to "stow away" on your 25 man roster. These are your rookies, fliers and projects.
You draft Kenny Irons thinking you'll stow him away for several years.
A year goes by, and now you have a problem at this similar time of year in 2008. You need to cut 4 players to make room for your rookie picks. Do you hold Irons who didn't do anything in Year 1 and hope for Year 2? Ok, sure you say that is fine and you do it. You cut someone who produced more in 2007 to keep Irons.
Now 12 months later - you're draft went well and 2008 was a banner year for talent. 3 or 4 of your rookies you kept and they excelled.
Same problem now. Your roster is chock full of good talent and you need to make room for draft picks in 2009.
Irons hasn't done anything yet, so you're pinched - you know he's got talent and it is situation killing him, right?
Well, his situation is costing you a roster spot on a guy that might be developing to more production faster.
The roster management aspect is critical in Dynasty play - if I had 40 roster spots and ample room to tuck away Irons (especially in a 16 team league) I'd rank him higher.
Given FBG rules of 12 teams, I'm drawing on personal experience with 24-26 man rosters and no taxi squad / development squad option.
Irons costs me the ability to possibly find another prospect while he awaits his chance.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
Let me try it this way then:Carson Palmer and TJ will be FA's in 09 unless they have gotten contract extensions before then. Chad Johnson will be a FA in 10 unless he gets extended before then. I think all of those guys are priorities over Rudi.The team will save approximately 2.4 million minimum by cutting Rudi in 09. I think he gets cut or restructures for less in a reduced role.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
It was a rhetorical question meant to be a comment. Darby is dern near Mr. Irrelevant and his chance of getting a chance is so low I couldn't fathom taking him before Irons. This isn't a case like Hairston or Bradshaw where an interesting case can be made. I scrolled to Irons in your rankings trying to rationalize each pick and it was doable understanding everyone disagrees about this and that along the way (and me being extremely limber minded in the processCC,That's an entirely different question than the one I was answering here.9 spots lower than Ken Darby?
). But I couldn't think of any rationale for Darby. I'm 90% sure his real playing days are already behind him. Make that 99%.
Why doesn't that argument apply to Hairston, Darby, Wright, Leonard, and Pittman, all of whom you have higher than Irons, some considerably higher?
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
BEcause that is not what is he is debating at this moment.
Gruden seems to like the kid, and thinks he was distracted last year, but I pretty much agree - although I have him as my Mr. Irrelevant at 50. He looked D-O-N-E all year and again at the Senior Bowl.It was a rhetorical question meant to be a comment. Darby is dern near Mr. Irrelevant and his chance of getting a chance is so low I couldn't fathom taking him before Irons. This isn't a case like Hairston or Bradshaw where an interesting case can be made. I scrolled to Irons in your rankings trying to rationalize each pick and it was doable understanding everyone disagrees about this and that along the way (and me being extremely limber minded in the processCC,That's an entirely different question than the one I was answering here.9 spots lower than Ken Darby?
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think this is an excellent point on opportunity. A marginal talent on a poor team is not going to perform well enough to really help your starting lineup regardless of the players clear path to playing time. A player like this may actualy hurt you more than help you with inconsistent low outputs. There is a cut off at some point where I would prefer to have a more talented player with no clear path to starting on a good team with strong supporting cast.Would you rather have Wali Lundy last year or Michael Turner?When I am looking at rookie prospects I am not expecting them to impact my starting lineup right away anyways. Sure there are a few exceptions but for the most part your going to have to be paitient and wait for them to work thier way into your lineup.Unless your looking for a fast starter and a quick trade (when rookies do perform quickly owners are much more likely to keep them than trade them) I don't really see what difference it makes if the rookie can start for you in year one. If your counting on that your team is allready in a hole.I don't see any scenario where I think there are 15 better player prospects than Kenny Irons. His value even as a talented handcuff/COP on good offense is enough to warrant at least this ranking even if you believe Rudi will hold steady for the next 2+ years.As for original post I am pretty much in agreement with EBF's observations with exception of Gonzalez.ETA- there is some history repeating itself here with Bengals RB. When Rudi was drafted in the 4th round behind Dillon a lot of owners ignored his talent because they saw no opportunity for him with Dillon in place. That turned out to be a great value play for owners who rostered Rudi anyways. ####e happens and Irons might be playing sooner than you think.
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EBF
Footballguy
That only applies in certain leagues. I play in leagues with 53 player rosters (IDP), 30 player rosters, 26 player rosters, and 20 player rosters. In the bigger leagues, holding a guy like Irons for 3-4 years wouldn't be a problem. And BTW, if this argument applies to Irons, then doesn't it also apply to every other rookie you might acquire? Not too many players peak after 1-2 seasons. Anyhow, roster management sometimes requires some juggling. I found myself a bit loaded in HyperActive, but instead of just cutting players loose, I made some trades. I shipped off Matt Jones for a 2008 1st and Wali Lundy for a 2008 3rd. By doing so, I kept their value on my roster without having to use the roster space.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
My take in the rationalizing process (not my opinion)....Hairston, underrated small schooler with only Maroney's shoulder and some journeymen situational guys around.Wright, a downhill bruiser coming in behind only a fellow rookie whose running style seems dangerous.Leonard, ultra versatile player who will likely get PT situationally immediately... and Jeff really likes this kid a lot.Pittman, hops aboard a high powered offense using two highly paid RBs with the ability to learn both roles and inherit either in case of injury and Deuce's in a year of he performs.Darby????
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Gruden drools at Pop Warner scrimmages.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't put a timetable on my rookies. I hold them until I've decided they can or can't play, but I never cut them until they've had an opportunity (or two) to prove themselves. This is the only way to ensure you don't miss their eventual breakout when it comes. I don't think it's entirely sufficient to look at these players as four year commodities. Consider a guy like Ahman Green. He broke out in year 3, but his value held steady for several years after that. In years 5-9, he rushed for over 5,000 total yards. Good players can play for 10+ years. This fact has to be considered when you're evaluating prospects. Few rookies have the talent to last in the league, but it's not like a time bomb explodes inside of them when they turn 26 or 27. If they can play when they're 22, then can play when they're 29 (assuming good health).
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That quote is way too easy to take out of context...
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Because every back you mentioned here has a far more significant chance IMO of seeing significant playing time in the next 1-2 years.I've made the case for Leonard and Hairston in other places.TB could overhaul its RB situation at any time - and (Michael) Pittman can be surpassed as the primary backup to Caddy - who is no lock to perform well again this year. Antonio Pittman I like over Irons as a RB. As for the opportunity, McAllister will certainly have to restructure or be gone after 2008. (2008 he makes $3.7M, 2009 he's slated for $5.3M).It's pretty obvious that some of you don't like my slot of Irons which is based mostly on opportunity (or lack thereof) vs. talent. That's fine. For now I'm sticking to my position until I see a reason to change it.
EBF
Footballguy
I think you're outsmarting yourself here. Irons was the third player chosen at the most valuable position in FF. The 2nd round has a pretty respectable tradition of producing solid RBs, including such recent notables as Maurice Drew, Julius Jones, Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Anthony Thomas, LaMont Jordan, Travis Henry, Corey Dillon, and Tiki Barber.I just can't fathom how a player like Irons doesn't warrant a top 20 ranking. He was a two time All-Conference selection in arguably the toughest conference in the NCAA. He was the third RB taken in his draft class. He had a very strong showing at the combine. He looks relatively decent on the field. Even with (seemingly) limited short-term opportunity, this guy has to be a top 20 player by virtue of his credentials alone.
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rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
Do you really think Hairston has a far more significant chance of significant playing time? I don't even think he has a far more significant chance of making the roster than not making the roster.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What is your definition of significant playing time?I do not see any of those players scoring enough to be startable without injury to the player(s) ahead of them. And even then some of them have very questionable talent imho.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
This is the key to the whole argument. EBF, I always enjoy your posts - disagree with you on Booker (more on that later) - but for now lets go over why Irons should be in the top 15 at the very least.
Irons chance to play - maybe not as slim as you think.
Irons chance to excel - with increased playing time he could turn out to be a very solid back, almost Rudi like (not a 1,400 yard back, but maybe 1,200).
Irons is more talented than most backs in this draft class. Over at draftguys I had Irons as the 4th best back, behind Peterson, Lynch, & Booker. Here's my take:
4 Kenny Irons Auburn 5'10" 203 lbs.
a good, but not great back with good natural running skills, instinctive and patient runner, hands are okay but unproven, has good pad speed despite "meh" timed speed, when tackled he always is falling forward for extra yardage, determined runner coming off a disappointing senior campaign, should make for an excellent back in a committee, durability is a concern.
His talent is obvious to anyone that watches college football. That is not the question, the question is when he does get the opportunity what will he do with it?
He will excel, plain and simple.
Let me start part 2 of my debate about Kenny Irons with this disclaimer:
I love Rudi Johnson, always have. I had him on my practice squad in 2002 when he led the preseason in rushing. After watching him his one year at Auburn (SEC player of the year), I knew that he had the determination and desire to be a good NFL back. Watching him in preseason it was apparent that he was hungry, yet buried behind Corey Dillon.
But the era of backs getting the bulk of the carries is coming to a close (unless you are an ELITE back, which Rudi is not). Also, we've been blessed to see backs last for 10 years and still have great production (Curtis Martin, Barry Sanders, Ricky Watters, Emmitt Smith) but that is not the norm. Career average for a RB is 3 years. Rudi is playing on borrowed time.
Here's an important stat when considering Rudi:
85 314 3.7 3
those are his numbers from 2006 in the 4th quarter. 3.7 YPC? A power back should be wearing a defense down, not wearing down himself (4.1 YPC in the 1st quarter for the season).
Rudi is great, so how do the Bengals keep him fresh? Give Kenny Irons 10 touches a game.
So why didn't we see more from the Bengals backups before this? In a nutshell, they're not that good.
I like Chris Perry (anybody who has 50+ carries in a college game is okay by me), but the guy gets injured getting out of bed. Kenny Watson was nothing at Penn State, he flashed a little with the Redskins, but he's essentially just an average backup RB. Quincy Wilson flamed out in spectacular fashion. Him and Kay Jay Harris, DAMN YOU WVU RB's! Except Steve Slaton, more on him at another time.
Running Backs
Player Ht. Wt. School Rd Sel# Team
Banks, Alvin 5-11 226 James Madison
Battle, Jackie 6-2 235 Houston
Booker, Lorenzo 5-10 193 Florida State 3 71 Miami
Bradshaw, Ahmad 5-9 198 Marshall 7 250 N.Y. Giants
Buckley, Eldra 5-9 202 Tennessee-Chattanooga
Bush, Michael 6-3 253 Louisville 4 100 Oakland
Clayton, Thomas 5-10 218 Kansas State 6 186 San Francisco
Coleman, Alonzo 5-10 207 Hampton
Cornish, Jon 5-11 206 Kansas
Darby, Kenneth 5-10 213 Alabama 7 246 Tampa Bay
Hairston, Justise 6-1 222 Central Connecticut 6 208 New England
Henry, Chris 6-0 228 Arizona 2 50 Tennessee
Hunt, Tony 6-0 230 Penn State 3 90 Philadelphia
Irons, Kenny 5-11 195 Auburn 2 49 Cincinnati
Jackson, Brandon 5-10 210 Nebraska 2 63 Green Bay
Lynch, Marshawn 5-11 217 California 1 12 Buffalo
McGill, Ronnie 5-10 222 North Carolina
Moss, Tyrone 5-9 231 Miami (Fla.)
Peterson, Adrian 6-2 218 Oklahoma 1 7 Minnesota
Pittman, Antonio 5-11 195 Ohio State 4 107 New Orleans
Race, Germaine 5-10 227 Pittsburg State
Russell, Gary 5-11 217 Minnesota
Smith, Kolby 5-11 215 Louisville 5 148 Kansas City
Snelling, Jason 5-11 232 Virginia 7 244 Atlanta
Walker, Darius 5-10 212 Notre Dame
Ware, Danny 6-0 225 Georgia
Whitlock, Arkee 5-9 195 Southern Illinois
Wolfe, Garrett 5-7 177 Northern Illinois 3 93 Chicago
Wright, Dwayne 5-11 226 Fresno State 4 111 Buffalo
Wynn, DeShawn 5-10 238 Florida 7 228 Green Bay
Young, Selvin 5-11 217 Texas
Of the 31 backs listed on the NFL.com draft tracker, there are only 3 that I don't have film on.
I know what you're thinking, there's Lammey pimping his library again. Well, yes and no. Here's the point: Having seen these back up close, or on tape i still stand behind my take of Irons being #4 back in this class (I consider Leonard a FB).
Based on physical ability first and foremost, because no matter what your opportunity, you will not make the most of it if you do not have the physical ability.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I'm going to have to sleep on this one.
I am curious what Iron's Rookie ADP is - I bet I wouldn't wind up with him regardless if I did move him up on the chart.
I am curious what Iron's Rookie ADP is - I bet I wouldn't wind up with him regardless if I did move him up on the chart.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
Okay, now on to defending Lorenzo Booker...Cookie & EBF are both solid posters, but let me jump in with a couple of points.I think he'll play in the slot some and I think they'll use some two back formations with Brown and Booker on the field at the same time. But I still don't expect him to become Tiki Barber. I'd liken him to someone like Amp Lee.I could also make argument against Booker. He won't be the feature PR/KR with Ginn being drafted to MIA. He won't be the 3rd down back either, as Ronnie Brown is an outstanding blocker, and was touted as having the best hands in his draft class - INCLUDING WRs! Booker should be a guy to give Ronnie a blow once in a while, not vulture catches or TDs. I like the guy, but he's viewed only as a 3rd down back, going to one of the few teams that have a legitamate 3 down back...
Ginn's injury still hasn't been properly diagnosed. Basically, they don't know what it truly is, which has led to it healing differently than expected. I can't go into too much detail, and might have already said too much, but don't have too many high hopes for Ginn this year.
Bottom line, Booker could be more involved with the KR/PR game than the Dolphins would like to let on.
He was involved in KR/PR in practice every day at FSU. He wasn't used very much, but when coaches were surprised at the Senior Bowl by his ability to field punts he told them the behind the scenes story.
Ok, so we've established the KR/PR situation may be cloudy, and we've established that Booker has a lot of experience returning punts and kicks.
Let's move on to his athletic ability and how it translates to running the football. Booker was my #3 back at draftguys, here's what I had to say:
3 Lorenzo Booker Florida State 5'11" 191 lbs.
don't let his weight fool you, Booker has incredible strength for a back his size (strongest player at FSU 3 of the 4 years he was there), the NFL is all about mismatches and Booker will give opposing defenses a headache every time he lines up in the backfield, he can excel as a runner and a receiver at the next level, clearly better when running outside, but has the determination to run inside, think Warrick Dunn with some Brian Westbrook sprinkled in, see the Matrix run.
I've highlighted the main argument against Booker. he's too small, he's to small, he's too small. What is it with me and RBs that have size issues, Lendale too big, Booker too small????
Some other backs with weight issues:
Tiki Barber - 195
Brian Westbrook - 200
Clinton Portis - 200
Warrick Dunn - 178
Reggie Bush - 200 **
Maurice Jones-Drew - 203**
Jerious Norwood - 200
**I must note that while in HS in CA, Bush, Jones-Drew, and Booker were tearing it up at the same time. Many people who saw all 3 said that Booker was the best out of the 3.
Several ALL TIME great RBs have been a little small. Terrell Davis struggled to keep his playing weight above 200. Tony Dorsett weighed the same as Booker.
Now, I'm not saying Booker will be as good as these guys (TD & TD), but he is a weapon that creates mismatches for a defense.
The mismatch angle is not lost on new HC Cam Cameron either. He knows that with both Brown and Booker he could have a deadly combination. They didn't draft Booker to be a special teams guy, they drafted him to be a very important cog in what they hope is a deadly RBBC.
Ronnie Brown is the starter. Ronnie Brown has GREAT hands, not good hands, but GREAT ones - perhaps the best we've seen in a bigger back. That being said, it's what you do when the ball is in your hands that counts. Brown will catch any screen pass, but will he make yards after the catch? Is he a threat to score from anywhere on the field? Does he have moves that can juke defenders right out of their socks? Brown may not have that, but Booker does. He's too fast for a LB to cover, he's too elusive for a S to cover. He has that great inside/out ability to break anything to the corner - even though he doesn't always look to the corner.
It's really his quickness that sets him apart. Lining up both Brown and Booker at the same time makes a lot of sense. Remember, Brown blocked for Caddy, so he could block for Booker in certain situations. I see all sorts of trickery that the Dolphins could pull here.
AMP LEE!?!? EBF, you know you're my boy, but please, why Amp Lee?
You could've said Travis Minor or Sammie Smith if you were going to reference a FSU back. Here's Amp's career stat line:
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1992 sfo | 16 | 91 362 4.0 2 | 20 102 5.1 2 |
| 1993 sfo | 15 | 72 230 3.2 1 | 16 115 7.2 2 |
| 1994 min | 13 | 29 104 3.6 0 | 45 368 8.2 2 |
| 1995 min | 16 | 69 371 5.4 2 | 71 558 7.9 1 |
| 1996 min | 16 | 51 161 3.2 0 | 54 422 7.8 2 |
| 1997 stl | 16 | 28 104 3.7 0 | 61 825 13.5 3 |
| 1998 stl | 14 | 44 175 4.0 2 | 64 667 10.4 2 |
| 1999 stl | 7 | 3 3 1.0 0 | 3 22 7.3 1 |
| 2000 phi | 2 | 1 2 2.0 0 | 1 20 20.0 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 115 | 388 1512 3.9 7 | 335 3099 9.3 15 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Lee had 1,500 yards rushing for his career. Booker may never reach that in a season, but he could reach 1,000 yards for a season. And he could have multiple 1,000 yard seasons. Why do I say that? Let's look at Warrick Dunn's career stat line:
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1997 tam | 16 | 224 978 4.4 4 | 39 462 11.8 3 |
| 1998 tam | 16 | 245 1026 4.2 2 | 44 344 7.8 0 |
| 1999 tam | 15 | 195 616 3.2 0 | 64 589 9.2 2 |
| 2000 tam | 16 | 248 1133 4.6 8 | 44 422 9.6 1 |
| 2001 tam | 13 | 158 447 2.8 3 | 68 557 8.2 3 |
| 2002 atl | 15 | 230 927 4.0 7 | 50 377 7.5 2 |
| 2003 atl | 11 | 125 672 5.4 3 | 37 336 9.1 2 |
| 2004 atl | 16 | 265 1106 4.2 9 | 29 294 10.1 0 |
| 2005 atl | 16 | 280 1416 5.1 3 | 29 220 7.6 1 |
| 2006 atl | 16 | 286 1140 4.0 4 | 22 170 7.7 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 150 | 2256 9461 4.2 43 | 426 3771 8.9 15 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Obviously I am a big fan of Booker, and why not? This kid is a GREAT guy, a good person that is very cerebral. He's focused and dedicated. He's ready to make his impact, no matter what it takes. I like that type of attitude, and that coupled with his physical ability lead me to believe that he can be a very solid back in the NFL.
NorrisB
Footballguy
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
wtf?
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Great stuff Cecil. After listening to FBG podcast, watching youtube, and looking more into him, I'm really convinced he could be top 2-4 RB of this draft class. Let me ask you something though: why was he a third rounder?Having the ability to create a great RBBC, while also showing incredible talent at KR/PR IMO should have improved his stock greatly. Especially after seeing what Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew could do for a team last year, and seeing what kind of COP Tatum Bell brought to the Broncos 2 years ago. So, I'm wondering, why wasn't he drafted higher? A team like the Bengals IMO (and many others) could really use what he brings to the table, and in the 2nd round even, a guy like Booker sounds like a great deal.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I had him projected in Round 2 to the Giants. The Dolphins got a steal in Round 3.Why did he slip? Probably speaks more to the FSU program than to Booker. He's still a Day 1 RB.(hijack off).....DocT said:
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Upon further review, I think I was looking too much at Rudi and the situation than at Kenny Irons himself.
The arguments towards improving his ranking are strong.
It's a 2 RB league now
He is a talented back
Rudi may age faster than his contractand most importantly...
Cincy drafted him in Round 2The part about the draft pick tells me that Cincy (A) views him as a Day 1 talent and (B) certainly has plans to utilize him.
I still have reservations about his workload (and to a lesser extent his talent), but the voices in here are making me alter my position.
Props to EBF, CC, Bloom and Cecil amongst others for making me take a longer and harder look at Irons. They all (I'm sure) have seen more of Irons' on field performances, so I trust their thoughts about his ability. I will temper it with my own concerns about his opportunity and liking Leonard and Pittman more, but like all rankings my own opinions enter the equation.
I will be bumping Irons up the charts. Thanks to all for making the rankings a little better.
The arguments towards improving his ranking are strong.
It's a 2 RB league now
He is a talented back
Rudi may age faster than his contractand most importantly...
Cincy drafted him in Round 2The part about the draft pick tells me that Cincy (A) views him as a Day 1 talent and (B) certainly has plans to utilize him.
I still have reservations about his workload (and to a lesser extent his talent), but the voices in here are making me alter my position.
Props to EBF, CC, Bloom and Cecil amongst others for making me take a longer and harder look at Irons. They all (I'm sure) have seen more of Irons' on field performances, so I trust their thoughts about his ability. I will temper it with my own concerns about his opportunity and liking Leonard and Pittman more, but like all rankings my own opinions enter the equation.
I will be bumping Irons up the charts. Thanks to all for making the rankings a little better.
EBF
Footballguy
I like Booker. I think he's going to contribute. I just don't quite see him as a Tiki/Westbrook. To me, he's more of a clear cut niche back. I know he's strong, but he has really skinny legs and is about 10-15 pounds lighter than what you'd hope for. And while Warrick Dunn and Reggie Bush might have similar size to Booker, both guys entered the league with substantially more fanfare. I'll buy the argument that FSU misused him and I'll buy the argument that he'll be a key player for the Dolphins. It's just tough for me to see him in a true workhorse role.Cecil Lammey said:Okay, now on to defending Lorenzo Booker...Cookie & EBF are both solid posters, but let me jump in with a couple of points.I think he'll play in the slot some and I think they'll use some two back formations with Brown and Booker on the field at the same time. But I still don't expect him to become Tiki Barber. I'd liken him to someone like Amp Lee.I could also make argument against Booker. He won't be the feature PR/KR with Ginn being drafted to MIA. He won't be the 3rd down back either, as Ronnie Brown is an outstanding blocker, and was touted as having the best hands in his draft class - INCLUDING WRs! Booker should be a guy to give Ronnie a blow once in a while, not vulture catches or TDs. I like the guy, but he's viewed only as a 3rd down back, going to one of the few teams that have a legitamate 3 down back...
Ginn's injury still hasn't been properly diagnosed. Basically, they don't know what it truly is, which has led to it healing differently than expected. I can't go into too much detail, and might have already said too much, but don't have too many high hopes for Ginn this year.
Bottom line, Booker could be more involved with the KR/PR game than the Dolphins would like to let on.
He was involved in KR/PR in practice every day at FSU. He wasn't used very much, but when coaches were surprised at the Senior Bowl by his ability to field punts he told them the behind the scenes story.
Ok, so we've established the KR/PR situation may be cloudy, and we've established that Booker has a lot of experience returning punts and kicks.
Let's move on to his athletic ability and how it translates to running the football. Booker was my #3 back at draftguys, here's what I had to say:
3 Lorenzo Booker Florida State 5'11" 191 lbs.
don't let his weight fool you, Booker has incredible strength for a back his size (strongest player at FSU 3 of the 4 years he was there), the NFL is all about mismatches and Booker will give opposing defenses a headache every time he lines up in the backfield, he can excel as a runner and a receiver at the next level, clearly better when running outside, but has the determination to run inside, think Warrick Dunn with some Brian Westbrook sprinkled in, see the Matrix run.
I've highlighted the main argument against Booker. he's too small, he's to small, he's too small. What is it with me and RBs that have size issues, Lendale too big, Booker too small????
Some other backs with weight issues:
Tiki Barber - 195
Brian Westbrook - 200
Clinton Portis - 200
Warrick Dunn - 178
Reggie Bush - 200 **
Maurice Jones-Drew - 203**
Jerious Norwood - 200
**I must note that while in HS in CA, Bush, Jones-Drew, and Booker were tearing it up at the same time. Many people who saw all 3 said that Booker was the best out of the 3.
Several ALL TIME great RBs have been a little small. Terrell Davis struggled to keep his playing weight above 200. Tony Dorsett weighed the same as Booker.
Now, I'm not saying Booker will be as good as these guys (TD & TD), but he is a weapon that creates mismatches for a defense.
The mismatch angle is not lost on new HC Cam Cameron either. He knows that with both Brown and Booker he could have a deadly combination. They didn't draft Booker to be a special teams guy, they drafted him to be a very important cog in what they hope is a deadly RBBC.
Ronnie Brown is the starter. Ronnie Brown has GREAT hands, not good hands, but GREAT ones - perhaps the best we've seen in a bigger back. That being said, it's what you do when the ball is in your hands that counts. Brown will catch any screen pass, but will he make yards after the catch? Is he a threat to score from anywhere on the field? Does he have moves that can juke defenders right out of their socks? Brown may not have that, but Booker does. He's too fast for a LB to cover, he's too elusive for a S to cover. He has that great inside/out ability to break anything to the corner - even though he doesn't always look to the corner.
It's really his quickness that sets him apart. Lining up both Brown and Booker at the same time makes a lot of sense. Remember, Brown blocked for Caddy, so he could block for Booker in certain situations. I see all sorts of trickery that the Dolphins could pull here.
AMP LEE!?!? EBF, you know you're my boy, but please, why Amp Lee?
You could've said Travis Minor or Sammie Smith if you were going to reference a FSU back. Here's Amp's career stat line:
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1992 sfo | 16 | 91 362 4.0 2 | 20 102 5.1 2 |
| 1993 sfo | 15 | 72 230 3.2 1 | 16 115 7.2 2 |
| 1994 min | 13 | 29 104 3.6 0 | 45 368 8.2 2 |
| 1995 min | 16 | 69 371 5.4 2 | 71 558 7.9 1 |
| 1996 min | 16 | 51 161 3.2 0 | 54 422 7.8 2 |
| 1997 stl | 16 | 28 104 3.7 0 | 61 825 13.5 3 |
| 1998 stl | 14 | 44 175 4.0 2 | 64 667 10.4 2 |
| 1999 stl | 7 | 3 3 1.0 0 | 3 22 7.3 1 |
| 2000 phi | 2 | 1 2 2.0 0 | 1 20 20.0 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 115 | 388 1512 3.9 7 | 335 3099 9.3 15 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Lee had 1,500 yards rushing for his career. Booker may never reach that in a season, but he could reach 1,000 yards for a season. And he could have multiple 1,000 yard seasons. Why do I say that? Let's look at Warrick Dunn's career stat line:
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1997 tam | 16 | 224 978 4.4 4 | 39 462 11.8 3 |
| 1998 tam | 16 | 245 1026 4.2 2 | 44 344 7.8 0 |
| 1999 tam | 15 | 195 616 3.2 0 | 64 589 9.2 2 |
| 2000 tam | 16 | 248 1133 4.6 8 | 44 422 9.6 1 |
| 2001 tam | 13 | 158 447 2.8 3 | 68 557 8.2 3 |
| 2002 atl | 15 | 230 927 4.0 7 | 50 377 7.5 2 |
| 2003 atl | 11 | 125 672 5.4 3 | 37 336 9.1 2 |
| 2004 atl | 16 | 265 1106 4.2 9 | 29 294 10.1 0 |
| 2005 atl | 16 | 280 1416 5.1 3 | 29 220 7.6 1 |
| 2006 atl | 16 | 286 1140 4.0 4 | 22 170 7.7 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 150 | 2256 9461 4.2 43 | 426 3771 8.9 15 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Obviously I am a big fan of Booker, and why not? This kid is a GREAT guy, a good person that is very cerebral. He's focused and dedicated. He's ready to make his impact, no matter what it takes. I like that type of attitude, and that coupled with his physical ability lead me to believe that he can be a very solid back in the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Someone have some ADP on rook drafts on where Irons is going?
I'm seeing maybe 12-20?
I'm seeing maybe 12-20?
EBF
Footballguy
My leagues:Zealots 30 - 2.03Zealots 18 - 1.08 (me)Hyper - 1.09Active - 2.03 12 team dynasty PPR start 2-3 RBs - 2.0412 team dynasty PPR start 2-3 RBs - 1.10 He seems to be going between 1.08-2.05 in most of my leagues.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
seriously. what's the deal with this cryptic message?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Mea culpa. Also, took him at 1.11 in Z22.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Probably got insder info...happens all the time. I always get insider Cards info that I don't share.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
There should be a report on NFL Network about this very soon. I hope Ginn's recovery is going well because he will be a great asset for the team.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
I appreciate you being able to change your mind.
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
I'm going to back you on this call, partly due to a want for a receiver to actually succeed in Atlanta. But, as you referenced, while the situation looks pretty bleak for his future, there is still a window of opportunity. For as little as I saw of Laurent Robinson, I loved what I saw. Good size and strength which he takes full advantage of. Good with screens, curls and works well in traffic. A perfect compliment to speedsters like Roddy White, Jenkins and Horn but has some speed of his own at 4.41. Perhaps comes into Atlanta with the best hands on the roster at the receiver position- making him a perfect candidate for those short routes to pick up needed yardage. Will probably spell Joe Horn initially but IMO has the skills to pass him by mid season. His role will be diminished by Alge Crumpler being such an adequate safety valve for Vick but surely could be the guy to go to if Alge is called in to block. I think a good comparison is a smaller version of Malcom Floyd.I'm not expecting him to have significant fantasy stats, but will be a good bargain in PPR leagues. If he can get things rolling quickly, I don't think 40+ catches is out of the question.
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