Analyzing my leagues drafts – anyone else do it? (1 Viewer)

A few years back around this time of the year I review my past leagues drafts to see if I can identify any league trends.  I have started keeping a spreadsheet with details on each owner that includes each teams starting draft position and the positions of players selected per team for their first 3 draft picks.  I have also started to keep some detailed notes on each owner that includes some general tendencies (i.e. drafts a starting lineup before depth).  I not only find this information handy for spotting trends, but it also helps a good deal with creating custom league baselines for the DD. 

My league trends over the past 6 seasons:

1)       All of the past champions have drafted at least 2 RBs by the end of round 3 – some may think that this is a no-brainer, but this doesn’t occur often.  In our 10 team league over the past 6 years (60 drafts) teams drafted 2 or more RBs only 60% of the time (36/60).

2)       5 of our last 6 league champions have drafted in the top 5.  (2006 – 5th, 2005 – 2nd, 2004 – 2nd, 2003 – 7th, 2002 – 5th, 2001 – 1st)

Does anyone else do this type of analysis?  What kinds of data are you keeping?  Have you noticed any trends in your league?

Interesting...I analyze for owner draft tendencies (to predict future picks), but I've never correlated it to team success...

I certainly do it.

Certain guys in my league do the same thing every year.....ie take 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds, draft their starting lineup before backups, take a QB early or late. It makes it somewhat easier to construct your draft strategy.

I like digging around in the draft histories to look for trends, but I found something else recently that really made me curious.

The past four championship game teams were all 1, 2, or 3 in points against.

there's not much you can do with first few round tendencies as you're pretty much taking the best stud you can and the first so many picks are awfully vanilla.

I try to remember favorite players and who waits on QBs+K+D.

IE if Hines Ward(or any player) was productive and on someone's team last 2 years and I want him, I'd better get him before his pick comes up.

The K+D is minimal but the fear of grabbing one too early when the rest are waiting til the last 2 rounds bugs me.

The waiting on QB shpeal is common and if you want a top tier QB often times knowing this can buy you a full round. After that full round, those guys will be itching to break their late QB style.

My main leaqgue is odd. Its a 16 team league, and qbs go early. The qb run starts in the late 2nd round and goes through the 3rd, but you better pick that 2nd string qb by round 6, or yourte going to be stuck with someone who may lose their job by the end of October. By the end of round three, i always have 2 rbs and a wr.

BusMan said:

I like digging around in the draft histories to look for trends, but I found something else recently that really made me curious.The past four championship game teams were all 1, 2, or 3 in points against.

Click to expand...

Well, the best teams will score the most points, leaving fewer points for the other teams to score, so it's not that big a deal, though obviously a little bit of luck helps.

I definately keep track. I have gotten pretty good at knowing where each drafter will head with their next pick. I'm fairly accurate with the first 7-8 rounds and I'm generally not surprised by where a fellow league mate heads (position wise) each round. Sometimes I'll get thrown a curve ball, but not so much that I'm not prepared for it. I'm also not the only one in my league that is aware of each others tendencies. There is one other player in my league who is actually a little better than me when it comes to predicting the draft. (He knows who he is and he frequents these boards to no end.)

I personally don't do the exact same things each year, but I have a few tendencies that are quite obvious when taking a good look at how I draft. Having made the SB the last three years, I've been drafting out of the 11 or 12 spot. But even then, not really. Offseason trades of draft picks left me picking my first pick in rounds 6 & 7 respectively the last two years and this year I won't sniff any players until round 4 (unless of course I pull off a block-buster trade again, which would land me the #1 overall pick.) Drafting so late, I have to make adjustments and take the best available player that will help my team.

Even still, I do look at tendencies and I do know where each of my league mates will turn in just about every round through the first 7-8 rounds. We also have the homers and guys who have man-love for certain players. It's so easy (that) you can almost guarantee they select these players again this year.

Taking the approach of "knowing your enemy and his tendencies" results in a solid draft. That is, if you really do your analysis right.

I analyze the drafts in my local redrafts. It's interesting to look back and not only figure what people are going to do, but in IDP you know who's going to jump out early for their IDP studs, and also when you can wait while loading up on the offensive talent.

My favorite league is the best because all of the owners do the same thing every year. It's fun to watch it all happen and walk away from the draft having things go exactly as you expected (more or less).

One day I guess they'll realize that the difference in points from IDP studs to the next tier to offensive studs to the next tier is what makes the difference in winning championships, but until then I'll keep allowing them to cover the costs for my other leagues.

Edit to add that analyzing your own drafts and seeing where you made some mistakes is also fun to do. It gives you that little bit more when your at your draft and deciding what you have to do next. It all really adds up.