An exercise in VBD (a little long) (1 Viewer)

Alright guys, fairly new here, so take it easy on me.

I've been playing FF for several years and consider myself to be above-average in the "fun" (non-shark) small money leagues I play in. In the past I've ranked players by position based on some rough projected stats, but never really had a draft plan other than just to make a somewhat informed decision when my turn to pick was up.

This year I wanted to incorporate VBD into my rankings. So I read the "how to" VBD material on this site (great info and great explanations, BTW). I've got an Excel book with all of the positions broken down into rankings, and one last sheet with them ranked by "Value" per the tried and true methods. I did both value over worst starter, and value over average starter. Both of which came up with somewhat similar rankings. I wanted to test the principles of it, when combined with my rankings. So i went to a couple of sites and pulled up ADP (Yahoo and a couple of others), and then bascially ran a practice draft against the ADP, if that makes any sense. I just flip-flopped the guy I picked and the guy that was picked in my spot, if that makes any sense. Not perfectly scientific, but it's the best I could do.

In the "practice draft", I stuck to VBD almost 100%, until my starters were at least filled out. I left out kickers and defenses as well because I don't have them ranked yet (I'll probably just steal DEF/K rankings from one of the experts here).

My problem is, that I'm not sure that VBD put together the best possible roster for me.

I'm going to show my work for the first 6 rounds (QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR). I'd prefer not to debate my rankings (they are customized to my league), because that's not what this thread is about. I did drafts from the 2, 5, and 10 spots. I'm going to show the one from the 5 spot.

If you want to skip to the round that I consider the "turning point" of my draft, go to round 4.

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Round 1:

1. LT 2. Jax 3. Johnson 4. Gore

My pick at 5. My VBD chart shows my top 5, in order, as: Chad Johnson, Westbrook, Gates, Manning, FWP

I really can't see myself going Chad Johnson at 5 in a real draft, and Westbrook is only about 4 "Value" points behind him. So at #5 I took Brian Westbrook

6. Addai 7. Alexander (Westbrook went here and Alexander went 5 in ADP, so I flip-flopped them) 8. Parker 9. Maroney 10. Rudi J

My Roster: RB Brian Westbrook (need 1RB, 1QB, 3WR, 1TE)

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Round 2:

11. Bush 12. Manning 13. Portis 14. McGahee 15. CJ

My VBD chart shows my top 5 as: Gates, McNabb, TO, SSmith, Harrison. There are only four RB left in the top 50 left in "Value" (Henry, Green, MJD, Benson). At #5 I take Antonio Gates. No surprise that he was my top guy there.

17. Henry 18. SSmith 19. Ronnie Brown 20. Benson

MJD was picked at 16. I'm just going to consider him "off of the board" even though he gets swapped with Gates, who gets picked at 30 in this exercise.

My Roster: RB Brian Westbrook, TE Antonio Gates (need 1RB, 1QB, 3WR)

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Round 3:

21. Holt 22. Fitz 23. Edge 24. Wayne

Value chart top 5: McNabb, TO, Harrison, Roy W, Lee Evans

Now is when it starts to get a little strange for me. The next RB on my value board is Ahman Green, and he's a good 20-30 spots down. Beyond that is Marshawn Lynch, who is 50 or so spots down. After that it starts to get dicey... guys who split carries or are not the starter or have major injury issues (Deuce, Peterson, Tatum, Bell, Fred Taylor, Brandon Jacobs).

But, I go ahead and suck it up and take Terrell Owens, passing on McNabb because I think I can get him in round 4. So far I have the 5th, 6th, and 10th players overall on my value board. I guess you can consider this "success", but I'm starting to worry about my RB situation.

26. Thomas Jones 27. Harrison (went at 25, TO went at 27, so I flipped them) 28. Roy W 29. Lynch 30. MJD (Gates' original spot)

Roster: RB Westbrook, TE Gates, WR Owens (need 1RB, 1QB, 2WR)

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Round 4:

31. Cadillac 32. Deuce 33. DeAngelo 34. Palmer 35. Boldin

Value chart: McNabb, Evans, Housh, Javon, Driver

(Notice a trend here in my value chart?)

My next RB, Ahman Green, is about 20 spots down my list still.

I really like McNabb this year, so I'm going to go ahead and take him here in round 4. A little early, but he is by far and away the highest guy on my value chart right now. McNabb gives me 35 value points, Evans is 22. I go ahead and take Donovan McNabb. Andre Johnson went here in the exercise, so I'll put him on the shelf like I did with MJD.

Also, I realize I might have been able to get McNabb later, but he's high enough on the value chart to justify playing it safe and taking him here. I still have no RB2

37. Jacobs 38. Colston 39. Brady 40. Barber III

Roster: QB McNabb, RB Westbrook, WR Owens, TE Gates (need 1RB, 2WR)

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Round 5:

41. Brees 42. Randy Moss 43. Peterson 44. Javon

My board: Lee Evans and a bunch of other receivers. Ahman Green is still on the board, but wayyy down the list. The next RB below him is 30 more spots down the board, and Green is the only bona fide starter on the board without any huge question marks.

Again, I'm going to ignore that RB2 and take the guy who is by far the highest on my board. Lee Evans is the pick (my 16th value rated player).

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I'll go ahead and cut it off there and give away the end of the story. I end up losing out on my next available RB in Green (goes 3 spots before my 6th round pick), and I take Reggie Brown in the 6th. This leaves my only open roster spot as my RB2. In the 7th I finally fill in my last open spot and take Tatum Bell.

So here's the real dilemma for me. In round 4 I took McNabb about one round too early, but stuck with VBD and he was the pick. There are plenty of solid QBs still left on the board in round 7, and 5-6 of them are higher on my list than Tatum Bell, the RB I was pigeonholed into taking.

The same thing goes with Evans in the 5th. While he was my highest rated receiver by quite a large margin, there were plenty of solid WR left in round 7 that were higher on my value board than Tatum Bell was.

Looking back, starting at round 5, I went:

5. Evans (23 value points) 6. Brown (-8 value points) 7. Bell (-56 value points) for a total of -41 value points

Had I taken Green in round 5, I would have gone this way according to VBD and my rankings:

5. Green (-18) 6. Brown (-8) 7. Joey Galloway (-3) for a total of -29 value points.

So going against VBD in this situation actually gained me 12 value points. Not to mention that I feel much safer with Ahman Green at RB2 than Tatum Bell, and don't need to draft 3-4 marginal backups who MIGHT be solid starters, just in hopes that one or two become serviceable depth on my roster. Those roster spots are valuable for sleepers and guys with big time potential that I pick up late in the draft.

So I guess my questions for myself and everyone stemming from this are:

- Do you guys always stick straight to your sheet when doing VBD?

- If not, how, and using what factors, do you make your decision to stray from straight VBD?

- What could I have done differently to improve my draft? (other than being psychic - I drafted without looking ahead to see where people would go)

- Is my methodology completely bad/wrong? If so, why?

Sorry for the long post. If anyone actually reads the whole thing, I'd love to hear some input.

You've just experienced the reason you never stick to one method of drafting, you absolutley must change your strategy as the draft rolls out. IMO taking Gates @2, D Mac at 4 were gross overpayments and are what hurt you. VBD only tells you the "value" of the player your getting, it does nothing for the public perception of that player and when they will likely be drafted. Case in point Gates may have been the highest value on your board but he is no where near a high enough point getter to be taken in the second, I personally would not touch him utill late fourth round and Mcnabb not untill the sixth or seventh. I'll also likely lose out on those players but I cant justify over paying for either of them considering you can get a player very close to what both of them will give you in rounds 7-9. Also as the # of players in the league goes down, the importance and accuracy of VBD does as well. 8 and 10 team leagues really dont dilute the pool of players enough.

1. VBD using static baselines is horribly flawed.

2. in a draft if you don't incorporate ADP into your drafting decisions you will consistantly overpay.

3. your best draft will incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis. unfortunately you cannot math your way to a great draft, despite what tools people try to sell you.

VBD is helpful in understanding the underlying concept as part of an overall draft strategy, but it is not a draft strategy in and of itself.

also, why are you trying to fill out starters? play around with mock drafts getting depth at positions where you need to start 2-3 (i.e. RBs and WRs) as you will likely be starting your 4th RB and 5th WR for up to 25% of your season depending on bye weeks and injuries. meanwhile, a QB like eli manning, matt leinart, vince young, and ben roethlesberger who can be drafted in the 10th or 11th round can produce at top 10 levels for a great price. you get a couple in the 10th and 11th and you have depth and the potential for a top 8 QB for a great price.

look at what your team production would be on a weekly basis using PPG for your predicted starters each week. do a different strategy and see how that effects your team production on a weekly basis. this will be a good way to see what strategies are working and what may need to be worked on more.

This is why you use the Draft Dominator. Dynamic VBD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Static VBD

You answered your first question without even knowing you did. "Do you guys always stick straight to your sheet when doing VBD?" In rounds 3&4 the value chart said pick McNabb, but you went against that in round 3 and bam he is still there in round 4. That's value!

GroveDiesel said:

This is why you use the Draft Dominator. Dynamic VBD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Static VBD

Click to expand...

QFTalthough dynamic vbd has issues as well, it gets you much closer to where you need to be.i have gone from static VBD ---> dynamic VBD ---> predraft strategy of looking at alternatives of who is available at each draft spot via ADP and formulating a plan from there.the last strategy uses quantitative methods via my projections, allows me to create value by waiting on players i have ranked higher due to ADP, and i can look at various options before a draft to enable me to change strategies on the fly.once i know my draft spot, i can come fairly close to knowing who will be on my team.

VBD is one tool amongst several to help you have a good draft. Making any decision with it exclusively is like using only a wrench to fix a car. You wouldn't even think of doing that. You'd use the wrench to loosen any nuts and the screwdriver to loosen any screws and a funnel to help pour fluids in.

VBD shows you value in the SUPPLY of players. It does not have anything to do with the DEMAND at which players are going to be depleted. It doesn't know anything about where your picks are in the draft or what players will be available there, or whether you think Player A and Player B have equivalent projections but one is lower risk and is in your eyes then more valuable. (Unless you build that into your projections which I personally think is hard to do well.)

Dynamic VBD or DVBD tries to look a round or more ahead to see the drops in player value. But it also does not do this perfectly. Not even close to it. It may realize the magnitude of the drop between the RBs in the 3rd round and those in the 4th, but it doesn't know that taking the 4th round RB means you'll probably take your RB3 in round 6 instead of round 7 or 8 as you would have if you'd taken the RB in the 3rd. It doesn't know that a RB with no competition but a solid backup who can be handcuffed frees up value for you by letting you take your backup RB later.

In short, don't draft straight from VBD. There is no perfect system you can apply that will maximize your draft. And yes, I'm afraid that includes Draft Dominator. The mathematical problem posed is one that cannot easily be solved. Use these tools as inputs, but you need to make the decisions yourself.

Dodd's perfect draft article is still an example of the best template I've seen for a proper draft strategy. Go use VBD and see how the value is spread throughout positions. Try multiple baselines including last starter to view the top of the position, and last backup to view the good backups and bad starters. Use ADP to identify players who seem to be good values for where they are being picked, so you know those are areas of the draft to try to steer yourself towards in your earlier decisions. I.e. if you have a great value at TE who you think is worth a 4th but is actually going in the 7th, you want to know this in advance as that lowers the value to your team of Gates in the 2nd, which is something VBD and DVBD know nothing about.

Then go through with ADP and do some mock drafts on your own. Don't just look at your pick where you are but think about how it is going to affect each of your future picks. Work through a few drafts and test hypothesis like "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and get him in the 5th how does my team look". Then try, "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and he's taken before my 5th, how does my team look".

In short, actually test out with mock drafts the different decisions you may be faced with. Your whole goal is to arm yourself with foreknowledge of how different decisions are likely to affect your final team. You are not plotting a single course through the draft in doing this, you are becoming aware of all likely courses so when things don't go how you expect you have already thought through which option facing you is best.

So to bring this back around to the OP's exercise... at this point you've given yourself one picture of how your draft could look. Now go back to the key decisions that made things not turn out how you wanted, and change them and see what the alternatives look like. Do this until you feel confident you have a grasp of how early picks affect later picks, and then you'll be set to go into the draft.

When you're actually there, you can use VBD and DVBD for more quick glimpses at player value to make those close calls, but you should already have the larger picture in mind by then.

bagger said:

GroveDiesel said:

This is why you use the Draft Dominator. Dynamic VBD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Static VBD

Click to expand...

QFTalthough dynamic vbd has issues as well, it gets you much closer to where you need to be.i have gone from static VBD ---> dynamic VBD ---> predraft strategy of looking at alternatives of who is available at each draft spot via ADP and formulating a plan from there.the last strategy uses quantitative methods via my projections, allows me to create value by waiting on players i have ranked higher due to ADP, and i can look at various options before a draft to enable me to change strategies on the fly.once i know my draft spot, i can come fairly close to knowing who will be on my team.

Click to expand...

That's been my progression as well.Based on ADP, I make a list of the guys I want in order at each pick, based on whom I've gotten in the earlier rounds. This is my third year with this approach, and I prefer it to any other.I still use the Dominator to track the draft and check it one last time before making picks to verify bye weeks, but I don't take the advice. I might if we could alter the value of backups instead of taking the preset discount factors.

GregR said:

VBD is one tool amongst several to help you have a good draft. Making any decision with it exclusively is like using only a wrench to fix a car. You wouldn't even think of doing that. You'd use the wrench to loosen any nuts and the screwdriver to loosen any screws and a funnel to help pour fluids in.VBD shows you value in the SUPPLY of players. It does not have anything to do with the DEMAND at which players are going to be depleted. It doesn't know anything about where your picks are in the draft or what players will be available there, or whether you think Player A and Player B have equivalent projections but one is lower risk and is in your eyes then more valuable. (Unless you build that into your projections which I personally think is hard to do well.)Dynamic VBD or DVBD tries to look a round or more ahead to see the drops in player value. But it also does not do this perfectly. Not even close to it. It may realize the magnitude of the drop between the RBs in the 3rd round and those in the 4th, but it doesn't know that taking the 4th round RB means you'll probably take your RB3 in round 6 instead of round 7 or 8 as you would have if you'd taken the RB in the 3rd. It doesn't know that a RB with no competition but a solid backup who can be handcuffed frees up value for you by letting you take your backup RB later.In short, don't draft straight from VBD. There is no perfect system you can apply that will maximize your draft. And yes, I'm afraid that includes Draft Dominator. The mathematical problem posed is one that cannot easily be solved. Use these tools as inputs, but you need to make the decisions yourself.Dodd's perfect draft article is still an example of the best template I've seen for a proper draft strategy. Go use VBD and see how the value is spread throughout positions. Try multiple baselines including last starter to view the top of the position, and last backup to view the good backups and bad starters. Use ADP to identify players who seem to be good values for where they are being picked, so you know those are areas of the draft to try to steer yourself towards in your earlier decisions. I.e. if you have a great value at TE who you think is worth a 4th but is actually going in the 7th, you want to know this in advance as that lowers the value to your team of Gates in the 2nd, which is something VBD and DVBD know nothing about. Then go through with ADP and do some mock drafts on your own. Don't just look at your pick where you are but think about how it is going to affect each of your future picks. Work through a few drafts and test hypothesis like "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and get him in the 5th how does my team look". Then try, "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and he's taken before my 5th, how does my team look".In short, actually test out with mock drafts the different decisions you may be faced with. Your whole goal is to arm yourself with foreknowledge of how different decisions are likely to affect your final team. You are not plotting a single course through the draft in doing this, you are becoming aware of all likely courses so when things don't go how you expect you have already thought through which option facing you is best.So to bring this back around to the OP's exercise... at this point you've given yourself one picture of how your draft could look. Now go back to the key decisions that made things not turn out how you wanted, and change them and see what the alternatives look like. Do this until you feel confident you have a grasp of how early picks affect later picks, and then you'll be set to go into the draft.When you're actually there, you can use VBD and DVBD for more quick glimpses at player value to make those close calls, but you should already have the larger picture in mind by then.

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Great post here IMO.

Tick said:

GregR said:

VBD is one tool amongst several to help you have a good draft. Making any decision with it exclusively is like using only a wrench to fix a car. You wouldn't even think of doing that. You'd use the wrench to loosen any nuts and the screwdriver to loosen any screws and a funnel to help pour fluids in.VBD shows you value in the SUPPLY of players. It does not have anything to do with the DEMAND at which players are going to be depleted. It doesn't know anything about where your picks are in the draft or what players will be available there, or whether you think Player A and Player B have equivalent projections but one is lower risk and is in your eyes then more valuable. (Unless you build that into your projections which I personally think is hard to do well.)Dynamic VBD or DVBD tries to look a round or more ahead to see the drops in player value. But it also does not do this perfectly. Not even close to it. It may realize the magnitude of the drop between the RBs in the 3rd round and those in the 4th, but it doesn't know that taking the 4th round RB means you'll probably take your RB3 in round 6 instead of round 7 or 8 as you would have if you'd taken the RB in the 3rd. It doesn't know that a RB with no competition but a solid backup who can be handcuffed frees up value for you by letting you take your backup RB later.In short, don't draft straight from VBD. There is no perfect system you can apply that will maximize your draft. And yes, I'm afraid that includes Draft Dominator. The mathematical problem posed is one that cannot easily be solved. Use these tools as inputs, but you need to make the decisions yourself.Dodd's perfect draft article is still an example of the best template I've seen for a proper draft strategy. Go use VBD and see how the value is spread throughout positions. Try multiple baselines including last starter to view the top of the position, and last backup to view the good backups and bad starters. Use ADP to identify players who seem to be good values for where they are being picked, so you know those are areas of the draft to try to steer yourself towards in your earlier decisions. I.e. if you have a great value at TE who you think is worth a 4th but is actually going in the 7th, you want to know this in advance as that lowers the value to your team of Gates in the 2nd, which is something VBD and DVBD know nothing about. Then go through with ADP and do some mock drafts on your own. Don't just look at your pick where you are but think about how it is going to affect each of your future picks. Work through a few drafts and test hypothesis like "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and get him in the 5th how does my team look". Then try, "if I pass on McNabb in the 4th and he's taken before my 5th, how does my team look".In short, actually test out with mock drafts the different decisions you may be faced with. Your whole goal is to arm yourself with foreknowledge of how different decisions are likely to affect your final team. You are not plotting a single course through the draft in doing this, you are becoming aware of all likely courses so when things don't go how you expect you have already thought through which option facing you is best.So to bring this back around to the OP's exercise... at this point you've given yourself one picture of how your draft could look. Now go back to the key decisions that made things not turn out how you wanted, and change them and see what the alternatives look like. Do this until you feel confident you have a grasp of how early picks affect later picks, and then you'll be set to go into the draft.When you're actually there, you can use VBD and DVBD for more quick glimpses at player value to make those close calls, but you should already have the larger picture in mind by then.

Click to expand...

Great post here IMO.

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I agree,this board gets petty and picky at times,this post is excellent,sorry I have nothing to add to it