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Is this Ronnie Browns breakout season (1 Viewer)

T

The Moz

Footballguy
Ronnie Brown finally has a coach who is commited to him and will give give all the carries and utilize him in the passing game. He has the coach that turned LT2 from a great RB to a all millenium RB ! I definiltey think if RB stay healthy the stars are alligned. And as far as him being a health risk -- last season he was healthy all season but missed time becasue of a freak hand injury and that basically has no bearing his running. T. Green is at least a QB that D's will likley respect so that helps the run as well.

1800 total yards and 16 TDs is my projection right now for this guy.. Is this just totally nuts ?

 
The Moz said:
Ronnie Brown finally has a coach who is commited to him and will give give all the carries and utilize him in the passing game. He has the coach that turned LT2 from a great RB to a all millenium RB ! I definiltey think if RB stay healthy the stars are alligned. And as far as him being a health risk -- last season he was healthy all season but missed time becasue of a freak hand injury and that basically has no bearing his running. T. Green is at least a QB that D's will likley respect so that helps the run as well. 1800 total yards and 16 TDs is my projection right now for this guy.. Is this just totally nuts ?
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That sounds nuts to me. Search for RB and you'll find several threads discussing this.
 
thecardiackid said:
The Moz said:
Ronnie Brown finally has a coach who is commited to him and will give give all the carries and utilize him in the passing game. He has the coach that turned LT2 from a great RB to a all millenium RB ! I definiltey think if RB stay healthy the stars are alligned. And as far as him being a health risk -- last season he was healthy all season but missed time becasue of a freak hand injury and that basically has no bearing his running. T. Green is at least a QB that D's will likley respect so that helps the run as well. 1800 total yards and 16 TDs is my projection right now for this guy.. Is this just totally nuts ?
Click to expand...
That sounds nuts to me. Search for RB and you'll find several threads discussing this.
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It doesn't sound nuts to me, but you are right in that there are several threads discussing this.
 
I liek Ronnie, but he doesn't have the juke to avoid those big his the will always nick him up.

 
Garts said:
I liek Ronnie, but he doesn't have the juke to avoid those big his the will always nick him up.
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RBs usually show signs of breakout in their rookie seasons. This isn't the 2-3 year plan you get with some WRs.Average fantasy numbers and should be a decent RB2 for any fantasy team over his career.
 
oukurt said:
Garts said:
I liek Ronnie, but he doesn't have the juke to avoid those big his the will always nick him up.
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RBs usually show signs of breakout in their rookie seasons. This isn't the 2-3 year plan you get with some WRs.Average fantasy numbers and should be a decent RB2 for any fantasy team over his career.
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I would say Ronnie showed those flashes his rookie year. The run against KC comes to mind. The truth here is that in year 1 we had a platoon situation with RW. Year two looked good for ronnie until the offense fell apart, the o line had it's usual troubles, and Mike Mularkey was the OC.Now you have the only RB Loving OC short of Norv Turner as the HC. Ronnie has good hands (or great hands), is a load, but also has the speed to make things happen. I think that the only thing holding him back will be the O Line (still a work in progress), and Lo Booker taking some of the third downs away from him.While I think that he is not a top 5 back with this o line, I could see him being the guy you take in the late first to mid second that overshoots his expectations.My hope (as a dolphin fan) this year is that the dolphins at least go down swinging. Attack on O and D. No more conservative bullcrap. Our last few QBs had no idea how to find a RB in the flat or over the middle. Trent Green, while no savior, at least can get to his 4th read.
 
I"m not a RB fan at all, I think the guy is Keith Byars, V2.0..

but if EVER Brown was going to put it all together, THIS HAS TO BE THE YEAR.

he doesn't have great moves he doesn't have that shake and bake like the better RB's do, but he has excellent pass catching skills, and Cameron will use that part of Brown's game, extensively..

Brown is averaging 4.3 per carry during his brief NFL career. If Cameron turns that O-line around, a quantum leap in offensive production is likely. Trent Green offers stability and a proven track record at the QB spot..

I'm not a fan of Chris Chambers, or David Martin (TE)., so, who should catch the majority of passes from Trent Green? Ron Brown.

expect to see a lot of screen passes and dump offs ..

Brown will definitely finish as a top 10 RB this season because:

a. he will get ALL of the goal line carries.

b. he is one of a handful of RBs not involved in a RBBC. he's a LOCK for 300+ carries ( if healthy).

c. going by Cameron's track record of heavily relying on the RB position for dump offs and screen passes, Brown *could* catch 70 balls in 2007.

best case scenario, he performs like Lamont Jordan, circa 2005 , with slightly more rushing yards..Jordan caught 70 balls in 2005.

R. Brown - 300 carries, 1260 ( 4.2 per carry), 70 receptions, 560 (8.0 per catch).

15 total TDs ( 12 rush, 3 rec.)

 
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nygiants56 said:
I"m not a RB fan at all, I think the guy is Keith Byars, V2.0..

but if EVER Brown was going to put it all together, THIS HAS TO BE THE YEAR.

he doesn't have great moves he doesn't have that shake and bake like the better RB's do, but he has excellent pass catching skills, and Cameron will use that part of Brown's game, extensively..

Brown is averaging 4.3 per carry during his brief NFL career. If Cameron turns that O-line around, a quantum leap in offensive production is likely. Trent Green offers stability and a proven track record at the QB spot..

I'm not a fan of Chris Chambers, or David Martin (TE)., so, who should catch the majority of passes from Trent Green? Ron Brown.

expect to see a lot of screen passes and dump offs ..

Brown will definitely finish as a top 10 RB this season because:

a. he will get ALL of the goal line carries.

b. he is one of a handful of RBs not involved in a RBBC. he's a LOCK for 300+ carries ( if healthy).

c. going by Cameron's track record of heavily relying on the RB position for dump offs and screen passes, Brown *could* catch 70 balls in 2007.

best case scenario, he performs like Lamont Jordan, circa 2005 , with slightly more rushing yards..Jordan caught 70 balls in 2005.

R. Brown - 300 carries, 1260 ( 4.2 per carry), 70 receptions, 560 (8.0 per catch).

15 total TDs ( 12 rush, 3 rec.)
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:blackdot:
 
It's hard to picture anyone breaking out in the Miami offense this year. Breaking down, maybe, breaking out? :nerd:

(Except maybe Lorenzo Booker :goodposting: )

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Cookiemonster said:
BigSteelThrill said:
I thought last year was the year. But then I watched more of his games. He appeared to be missing something.
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Blocking perhaps?
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His blocking wasnt very good, no doubt about it. But I was talking specifically about Brown and his own atttributes. :loco:
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The best way to stop a big RB is to his him before he gets going, ie 3 yards in the backfield. Still, he very often fought his way back to the LOS. I'm a big fan of Ronnie's since Auburn, so I may be a little biased. I still stick to my opinion of Jamal Lewis w/ great hands. I expect studly #s for a couple years and a late 20's breakdown typical of a battering ram RB unless they also have the shiftiness of say, Bettis.Despite the sizes, Cadillac was much better between the tackles and Brown was better in space.

 
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Their line isn't good enough and I'm not sure how good Cameron will be as a coach. He wasn't revolutionary on the Chargers, they just happened to probably have the best offensive talent in the NFL.

 
Banger said:
Their line isn't good enough and I'm not sure how good Cameron will be as a coach. He wasn't revolutionary on the Chargers, they just happened to probably have the best offensive talent in the NFL.
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really -- they never had anyhting inregards to WR'S , untill last season their oline ws conidered average at best. They had Gates , a decent QB in Brees/Rivers , and LT2
 
nygiants56 said:
I"m not a RB fan at all, I think the guy is Keith Byars, V2.0..

but if EVER Brown was going to put it all together, THIS HAS TO BE THE YEAR.

he doesn't have great moves he doesn't have that shake and bake like the better RB's do, but he has excellent pass catching skills, and Cameron will use that part of Brown's game, extensively..

Brown is averaging 4.3 per carry during his brief NFL career. If Cameron turns that O-line around, a quantum leap in offensive production is likely. Trent Green offers stability and a proven track record at the QB spot..

I'm not a fan of Chris Chambers, or David Martin (TE)., so, who should catch the majority of passes from Trent Green? Ron Brown.

expect to see a lot of screen passes and dump offs ..

Brown will definitely finish as a top 10 RB this season because:

a. he will get ALL of the goal line carries.

b. he is one of a handful of RBs not involved in a RBBC. he's a LOCK for 300+ carries ( if healthy).

c. going by Cameron's track record of heavily relying on the RB position for dump offs and screen passes, Brown *could* catch 70 balls in 2007.

best case scenario, he performs like Lamont Jordan, circa 2005 , with slightly more rushing yards..Jordan caught 70 balls in 2005.

R. Brown - 300 carries, 1260 ( 4.2 per carry), 70 receptions, 560 (8.0 per catch).

15 total TDs ( 12 rush, 3 rec.)
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catching 70 balls even with the drafting of Booker? highly unlikely i think.
 
15 tds

The team may not score that many all year

Brown is a good talent, i had him last year and watched every ame. That being said he can be a servicable two back this year, 10 tds would be his cap , imo

 
Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.

I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.

 
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.

 
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SSOG said:
Maybe Drinen or Stuart could answer, but I wonder how many RBs have become top-10 in their third season after getting at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and finishing both years outside of the top-20. I suspect the list is going to be very small. Heck, I wonder how many RBs have *EVER* become top-10 after finishing with at least 200 carries in their first two seasons and failing both times to crack the top-20.

I don't have any numbers to back this up (and I really hope someone shows up with the numbers, because I'm honestly curious), but my initial thought was that if Ronnie Brown was going to break out, he would have done it already.
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OK, so I ran the numbers using the Historical Data Dominator. Here's what I found.....Since 1960, there have been only 40 RB's to have at least 200 carries in their first two seasons in the league, that includes R. Brown & C. Williams who are both entering their 3rd year.

-NONE of the RB's that had at least 200 carries in their first two seasons did NOT finished in the top 20 in fantasy scoring in either of those years EXCEPT for Ronnie Brown. The next closest was Cadillac, but he finished #19 his rookie year.

-Only 4 of these backs besides Brown & Williams have finished below 15th in each of their first two years. Here's how they finished in their 3rd year:

Sammie Smith - #68

Ricky Williams - #8

John Stephens - #25

Ronald Moore - #74

-As you can see, Ricky Williams is the only back to have cracked the top 10 after two sub 15 seasons (he was 27 & 18 his first two).

Some other analysis of the 3rd year of these other 38 RB's:

The average ranking in year 3 is 10.92 spots LOWER than their year 2 rankings.

The average year 3 point totals are 21% LOWER than the point totals in year 2.

It doesn't look good for any 3rd year back who has carried a significant load in their first two seasons. The numbers do not appear to be in favor of Ronnie Brown, but then again there is always a chance he is the second to really step it up in year 3.

 
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The Man with the Plan said:
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.
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He was RB17 last year per game. That's breaking out?
 
Synthesizer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.
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He was RB17 last year per game. That's breaking out?
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If you prorate his stats over a 16 game season he ends up with about 194 fantasy points. Most years that's right around the what the 10th-12th running back scores so he plays like a #1 back. He averaged a little under a 100 yards a game last season and generally played well under bad circumstances so yeah I'd say that he broke out last season.
 
The Moz said:
Ronnie Brown finally has a coach who is commited to him and will give give all the carries and utilize him in the passing game. He has the coach that turned LT2 from a great RB to a all millenium RB ! I definiltey think if RB stay healthy the stars are alligned. And as far as him being a health risk -- last season he was healthy all season but missed time becasue of a freak hand injury and that basically has no bearing his running. T. Green is at least a QB that D's will likley respect so that helps the run as well.

1800 total yards and 16 TDs is my projection right now for this guy.. Is this just totally nuts ?
Click to expand...
It's always the coach's fault . . .
 
The Man with the Plan said:
Synthesizer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.
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He was RB17 last year per game. That's breaking out?
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If you prorate his stats over a 16 game season he ends up with about 194 fantasy points. Most years that's right around the what the 10th-12th running back scores so he plays like a #1 back. He averaged a little under a 100 yards a game last season and generally played well under bad circumstances so yeah I'd say that he broke out last season.
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If you prorate all 16 RBs that finished ahead of him per game last year, he ends up at RB17. Mediocre RB2.
 
TaxMan said:
catching 70 balls even with the drafting of Booker? highly unlikely i think.
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Concidering Brown had what were called possibly the best hands in his draft class (regardless of position!), that he has played some fullback w/Cadillac just so they could get both on the field @ the same time and proved to be a fantastic blocker, and that he has two years' NFL experience and outweighs Booker by 50 lbs...Not to take anything from Booker. I like him and I think he will be a fairly good back in the league for a while, but I'm putting him in the ballpark of Dave Megget to W.Dunn. Maybe Westbrook, but those guys didn't have to try to unseat an incumbent #2 overall pick who has the necessary tools to be a top back in this league. Booker will see the field plenty, but it's a little hasty to assume Booker takes 3rd down duty from Brown.

I wonder, how many Brown-bashers played in non-ppr? I'm in a .5 ppr and he was a top 10 back before the broken hand. :thumbdown:

 
The Man with the Plan said:
Synthesizer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.
Click to expand...
He was RB17 last year per game. That's breaking out?
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If you prorate his stats over a 16 game season he ends up with about 194 fantasy points. Most years that's right around the what the 10th-12th running back scores so he plays like a #1 back. He averaged a little under a 100 yards a game last season and generally played well under bad circumstances so yeah I'd say that he broke out last season.
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Oh, so if you pro-rate Ronnie Brown's numbers, but not the numbers of any other RB, then Ronnie Brown looks better by comparison? Hey, if you add another 50 points to Brown's total without giving any other RBs a similar consideration, he looks better still! Ronnie Brown for MVP!If you pro-rate Brown's numbers, you have to pro-rate everyone else's to get a fair comparison. If you compare pro-rated numbers across the board, Ronnie Brown would have finished 17th.
 
SSOG said:
The Man with the Plan said:
Synthesizer said:
The Man with the Plan said:
Ronnie Brown broke out last season. Unfortunately he also broke his hand and missed 3 games. It's a blessing in disguise actually because it means he'll be drafted lower than some would say he should be. Basically if he does what he did last year for 16 games this year he's going to be a top 10 back. And that's assuming the Dolphins offense gets no better than it was a year ago. For where he's getting drafted that's solid value.
Click to expand...
He was RB17 last year per game. That's breaking out?
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If you prorate his stats over a 16 game season he ends up with about 194 fantasy points. Most years that's right around the what the 10th-12th running back scores so he plays like a #1 back. He averaged a little under a 100 yards a game last season and generally played well under bad circumstances so yeah I'd say that he broke out last season.
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Oh, so if you pro-rate Ronnie Brown's numbers, but not the numbers of any other RB, then Ronnie Brown looks better by comparison? Hey, if you add another 50 points to Brown's total without giving any other RBs a similar consideration, he looks better still! Ronnie Brown for MVP!If you pro-rate Brown's numbers, you have to pro-rate everyone else's to get a fair comparison. If you compare pro-rated numbers across the board, Ronnie Brown would have finished 17th.
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I'm not talking about every rb though, I'm only talking about Ronnie Brown. And I'm not adding numbers just to add them. There's no doubt in my mind that but for his broken hand he'd have been a top 10-12 rb last season. He was playing pretty well until then and he played well when he returned. He's just not on a great team is all. But he still produced anyways. My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
 
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
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Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.

 
LT2 Rushing 1st 2 years

2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6

2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5

Receiving

2001 San Diego Chargers 59 367 6.2

2002 San Diego Chargers 79 489 6.2

VS Ronnie Brown

Rushing

2005 Miami Dolphins 15 14 207 907 4.4

2006 Miami Dolphins 13 12 241 1008 4.2

Receiving

2005 Miami Dolphins 32 232 7.3

2006 Miami Dolphins 33 276 8.4

Cameron took over as offensive coach in 2002 for the Chargers. In Browns' 2 years in Miami, he has averaged 16 rushes per game and between 2 and 3 receptions per game for a total of about 19 touches per game. LT2, in his seasons before Cameron, had around 24 touches per game.

In college scouting reports, Brown was thought to have ball awareness of a wideout while also possessing break away speed. So what is my point?

Not saying I am advocating Brown as the next LT2. In fact, until I read this thread beginning and began to think about it, I didn't really think of him as ready to break out just yet. My point in the comparison is that Ronnie Brown's 2 years of pro experience is probably about equal to that of Ladainian's rookie year in terms of touches per game. He is a little less, but that would probably be a good thing for durability. His receiving average is pretty nice, and his ypc didn't dip too much with having a poor offense last year. Given Green at QB, Cameron as coach, and a possibility of a huge increase in stats with regards to fantasy football, I see no reason why he can't break out. He is not in an RBBC system, their schedule isn't horrible until towards the end of the season (NE in week 16 and Baltimor week 15), and the offensive line isn't putrid.

I'm not saying he will certainly be the next LT2, but I'm sure after the rookie campaign of Tomlinson, he wasn't being touted as the next Priest in the year that followed. I think this is a solid early 2nd round pick with high reward, low risk.

Sorry for spelling errors, I have been awake since noon yesterday

 
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Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
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Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
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He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
 
Milwalkeysbeast said:
LT2 Rushing 1st 2 years

2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6

2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5

Receiving

2001 San Diego Chargers 59 367 6.2

2002 San Diego Chargers 79 489 6.2

VS Ronnie Brown

Rushing

2005 Miami Dolphins 15 14 207 907 4.4

2006 Miami Dolphins 13 12 241 1008 4.2

Receiving

2005 Miami Dolphins 32 232 7.3

2006 Miami Dolphins 33 276 8.4

Cameron took over as offensive coach in 2002 for the Chargers. In Browns' 2 years in Miami, he has averaged 16 rushes per game and between 2 and 3 receptions per game for a total of about 19 touches per game. LT2, in his seasons before Cameron, had around 24 touches per game.

In college scouting reports, Brown was thought to have ball awareness of a wideout while also possessing break away speed. So what is my point?

Not saying I am advocating Brown as the next LT2. In fact, until I read this thread beginning and began to think about it, I didn't really think of him as ready to break out just yet. My point in the comparison is that Ronnie Brown's 2 years of pro experience is probably about equal to that of Ladainian's rookie year in terms of touches per game. He is a little less, but that would probably be a good thing for durability. His receiving average is pretty nice, and his ypc didn't dip too much with having a poor offense last year. Given Green at QB, Cameron as coach, and a possibility of a huge increase in stats with regards to fantasy football, I see no reason why he can't break out. He is not in an RBBC system, their schedule isn't horrible until towards the end of the season (NE in week 16 and Baltimor week 15), and the offensive line isn't putrid.

I'm not saying he will certainly be the next LT2, but I'm sure after the rookie campaign of Tomlinson, he wasn't being touted as the next Priest in the year that followed. I think this is a solid early 2nd round pick with high reward, low risk.

Sorry for spelling errors, I have been awake since noon yesterday
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C'mon this comparison is not remotely close. LT had 3775 yards and 24 tds in his 1st 2 years vs. 2423 and 10 td's. that's 521 fantasy points to 302. LT made Cameron not the other way around.
 
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
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Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
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He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
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LT may be one of the best backs to ever play in the NFL, Ronnie Brown is not.
 
Banger said:
Milwalkeysbeast said:
LT2 Rushing 1st 2 years

2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6

2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5

Receiving

2001 San Diego Chargers 59 367 6.2

2002 San Diego Chargers 79 489 6.2

VS Ronnie Brown

Rushing

2005 Miami Dolphins 15 14 207 907 4.4

2006 Miami Dolphins 13 12 241 1008 4.2

Receiving

2005 Miami Dolphins 32 232 7.3

2006 Miami Dolphins 33 276 8.4

Cameron took over as offensive coach in 2002 for the Chargers. In Browns' 2 years in Miami, he has averaged 16 rushes per game and between 2 and 3 receptions per game for a total of about 19 touches per game. LT2, in his seasons before Cameron, had around 24 touches per game.

In college scouting reports, Brown was thought to have ball awareness of a wideout while also possessing break away speed. So what is my point?

Not saying I am advocating Brown as the next LT2. In fact, until I read this thread beginning and began to think about it, I didn't really think of him as ready to break out just yet. My point in the comparison is that Ronnie Brown's 2 years of pro experience is probably about equal to that of Ladainian's rookie year in terms of touches per game. He is a little less, but that would probably be a good thing for durability. His receiving average is pretty nice, and his ypc didn't dip too much with having a poor offense last year. Given Green at QB, Cameron as coach, and a possibility of a huge increase in stats with regards to fantasy football, I see no reason why he can't break out. He is not in an RBBC system, their schedule isn't horrible until towards the end of the season (NE in week 16 and Baltimor week 15), and the offensive line isn't putrid.

I'm not saying he will certainly be the next LT2, but I'm sure after the rookie campaign of Tomlinson, he wasn't being touted as the next Priest in the year that followed. I think this is a solid early 2nd round pick with high reward, low risk.

Sorry for spelling errors, I have been awake since noon yesterday
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C'mon this comparison is not remotely close. LT had 3775 yards and 24 tds in his 1st 2 years vs. 2423 and 10 td's. that's 521 fantasy points to 302. LT made Cameron not the other way around.
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I wasn't comparing the 1st 2 years. I was comparing the amount of touches in Tomlinsons' 1st year (time before Cameron) vs the amount of touches and averages of Ronnie Browns' 1st two years (time before Cameron). Brown may not have had the #'s or fantasy points PER SEASON. BUt he did have nice #'s per touch in a poor offense comparable to LT2's rookie. Also, he came on strong as the year went on last year. Brown has the tools to be just as good as Tomlinson was in 2002 1683 yards, 4.5 ypc, 14 TD rushing, and 79 receptions for just under 500 yards and a TD. Maybe he won't reach those recpetion numbers, but the rushing stats could be on par.In blind luck, I picked LT2 in his 2003 year. He came in the mid to late 2nd round because of much of the same doubts that show no for Brown. They have about equal NFL experience at this point in their careers based on touches per game. You cannot deny that he has at least a good shot at having a top 5 year.

 
Banger said:
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
Click to expand...
Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
Click to expand...
He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
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LT may be one of the best backs to ever play in the NFL, Ronnie Brown is not.
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Its very easy to say that about LT now, but much harder after his rookie year. Give Brown a chance.
 
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
Click to expand...
Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
Click to expand...
He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
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he had a Norv though
 
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
Milwalkeysbeast said:
LT2 Rushing 1st 2 years

2001 San Diego Chargers 16 16 339 1236 3.6

2002 San Diego Chargers 16 16 372 1683 4.5

Receiving

2001 San Diego Chargers 59 367 6.2

2002 San Diego Chargers 79 489 6.2

VS Ronnie Brown

Rushing

2005 Miami Dolphins 15 14 207 907 4.4

2006 Miami Dolphins 13 12 241 1008 4.2

Receiving

2005 Miami Dolphins 32 232 7.3

2006 Miami Dolphins 33 276 8.4

Cameron took over as offensive coach in 2002 for the Chargers. In Browns' 2 years in Miami, he has averaged 16 rushes per game and between 2 and 3 receptions per game for a total of about 19 touches per game. LT2, in his seasons before Cameron, had around 24 touches per game.

In college scouting reports, Brown was thought to have ball awareness of a wideout while also possessing break away speed. So what is my point?

Not saying I am advocating Brown as the next LT2. In fact, until I read this thread beginning and began to think about it, I didn't really think of him as ready to break out just yet. My point in the comparison is that Ronnie Brown's 2 years of pro experience is probably about equal to that of Ladainian's rookie year in terms of touches per game. He is a little less, but that would probably be a good thing for durability. His receiving average is pretty nice, and his ypc didn't dip too much with having a poor offense last year. Given Green at QB, Cameron as coach, and a possibility of a huge increase in stats with regards to fantasy football, I see no reason why he can't break out. He is not in an RBBC system, their schedule isn't horrible until towards the end of the season (NE in week 16 and Baltimor week 15), and the offensive line isn't putrid.

I'm not saying he will certainly be the next LT2, but I'm sure after the rookie campaign of Tomlinson, he wasn't being touted as the next Priest in the year that followed. I think this is a solid early 2nd round pick with high reward, low risk.

Sorry for spelling errors, I have been awake since noon yesterday
Click to expand...
C'mon this comparison is not remotely close. LT had 3775 yards and 24 tds in his 1st 2 years vs. 2423 and 10 td's. that's 521 fantasy points to 302. LT made Cameron not the other way around.
Click to expand...
I wasn't comparing the 1st 2 years. I was comparing the amount of touches in Tomlinsons' 1st year (time before Cameron) vs the amount of touches and averages of Ronnie Browns' 1st two years (time before Cameron). Brown may not have had the #'s or fantasy points PER SEASON. BUt he did have nice #'s per touch in a poor offense comparable to LT2's rookie. Also, he came on strong as the year went on last year. Brown has the tools to be just as good as Tomlinson was in 2002 1683 yards, 4.5 ypc, 14 TD rushing, and 79 receptions for just under 500 yards and a TD. Maybe he won't reach those recpetion numbers, but the rushing stats could be on par.In blind luck, I picked LT2 in his 2003 year. He came in the mid to late 2nd round because of much of the same doubts that show no for Brown. They have about equal NFL experience at this point in their careers based on touches per game. You cannot deny that he has at least a good shot at having a top 5 year.
Click to expand...
I'd say he has a shot but not a good shot. He hasn't scored nearly enough TD's to date to make top 5 a serious consideration and hasn't been durable enough. I think it's more likely that he finishes around 13-18th due in large part to playing behind a terrible line/qb situation. Besides adding a new coach and QB with some questions what have they done to substantially upgrade the offense? I just don't see it. I'm not against Ronnie Brown as a talent, I just hate his situation. Comparing LT to Ronnie Brown is comparing apples and oranges. They aren't on the same plane IMO. I think you're pinning too much stock into Cameron. He didn't get a sniff of a head coaching job LT's 1st few years. It was only when they lead the league in scoring due in large part to the immense talent on the Chargers and a vastly improved offensive line (with the addition of McNeill at LT) that he all the sudden became a HC candidate.

ETA...to give some top 5 perspective last year Brown would have needed 2100 yards and 11 td's to squeak into the top 5. His stats last year were 1284 and 5 tds. So he'd have to add 900 yards and more than double his td total to be top 5. I don't see it at all.

 
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Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
Click to expand...
Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
Click to expand...
He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
Click to expand...
LT may be one of the best backs to ever play in the NFL, Ronnie Brown is not.
Click to expand...
Its very easy to say that about LT now, but much harder after his rookie year. Give Brown a chance.
Click to expand...
this isn't Brown's rookie year though, he was ranked 5th last year going into the season. We saw what he did last year with a bad line and QB and I don't see what has substantially improved.
 
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
Milwalkeysbeast said:
Banger said:
The Man with the Plan said:
My point is basically that Ronnie Brown is a good player on a bad team. With Trent Green and Cam Cameron though that could change for the better. I can't see how it could get worse anyway. So while he didn't break out in the conventional sense with some big year there's no question in my mind as to Ronnie Brown's ability. He can catch. He can run. There's little not to like about him. Just the Dolphins offense.
Click to expand...
Therein lies the problem since he plays on that offense. There's a lot of good players in the NFL but the situation particular players are in are a very big piece of the equation. I've posted this before but last year's ranking going into the season Ronnie Brown was ranked 5th, Jordan 8th, Caddy 9th and Edge 11th. All these guys failed pretty miserably and the major correlation with all the failures was largely offensive line and/or QB implosion. All those RB's are decent/good rb's but the lines that they are running behind and the QB's running their offense are a major factor on a rb's success (unless they are elite talents like LJ/LT). It remains to be seen whether Cameron will be an improvement, he doesn't have a Brees/Rivers, doesn't have an LT, doesn't have a Gates or a line NEARLY as good. Green can be one hit away from retirement and even if he isn't we saw last year what he looked like playing behind a pourous line. He was sacked 24 times in less than 8 games/prorated he would have had 2nd most sacks in the league. I think there's a good chance that he'll be a tackling dummy this year behind Miami's terrible line.
Click to expand...
He didn't have a Brees/Rivers when he arrived in 2002. Brees was a 2nd thought and the offense wasn't thought to be too much as they waited for Rivers to mature. Gates didn't arrive until 2003. LT2 put up good #'s in a poor offense with no QB and no WR threats. The Dolphins are, at least, equal to what people thought the Chargers were prior to Cameron's arrival.
Click to expand...
LT may be one of the best backs to ever play in the NFL, Ronnie Brown is not.
Click to expand...
Its very easy to say that about LT now, but much harder after his rookie year. Give Brown a chance.
Click to expand...
Brown is not even in LT's league . . . LT has serious cutback skills and great vision, both of which Brown lacks . . .meanwhile you keep going on and on about touches; touches are not purely coach driven, a player can influence (to some extent) the amount of his touches; if he is more successful running the ball, it's more likely that he will get more carries . . .

 
People who think that Brown's situation is not improved--fair enough. But the assertion that touches are not coach influenced or that having a coach like Cam won't help are just plain wrong. How many touches did Priest Holmes get in BA? How many looks did Chris Carter get in PHI? There are many more examples. And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.

The injury claim is a stretch. In two years Brown has had one injury, a broken hand, which is a freak injury and is not something that is likely to reoccur or have lasting effect.

 
az_prof said:
And that offense in SD didn't just sprout good players and a good OL; you have to give Cam some credit for developing them and it. I am confident that he will improve the OL in MIA too, if not this year, then soon.
Click to expand...
You're right that SD didn't sprout the offensive talent, A.J. Smith drafted and signed them as free agents. It took years to get where they are now through solid drafts and shrewd signings. Cameron left this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Chargers offense improves this year under Turner. Seeing how Miami drafted this year and looking at their roster I don't see the turn around right around the corner.The comparisions to Carter/Priest are stretchs since both moved to prolific offenses/situations and changed teams. Brown is on the same team with the same crappy players and he got a new coach. I don't see a revolutionary offense that Cam will change Miami's fortunes. He's not a Mike Martz type of coach. They don't have a good TE, their QB is average at best, the line is among the worst, they have some decent/good wr's and Brown is a decent/good talent. The only real plus that I see for Brown is that he's among a few backs that the offense will run through and has little to no competition for touch's.
 
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The Moz said:
Ronnie Brown finally has a coach who is commited to him and will give give all the carries and utilize him in the passing game. He has the coach that turned LT2 from a great RB to a all millenium RB ! I definiltey think if RB stay healthy the stars are alligned. And as far as him being a health risk -- last season he was healthy all season but missed time becasue of a freak hand injury and that basically has no bearing his running. T. Green is at least a QB that D's will likley respect so that helps the run as well. 1800 total yards and 16 TDs is my projection right now for this guy.. Is this just totally nuts ?
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i assume he is on your team and you are trying to justify some #s? :goodposting: I think hes a health risk, on a very average team, with a brand new system/staff/ etc. The offense wont be a well oiled machine early on
 
duaneok66 said:
Brown is not even in LT's league . . . LT has serious cutback skills and great vision, both of which Brown lacks . . .

meanwhile you keep going on and on about touches; touches are not purely coach driven, a player can influence (to some extent) the amount of his touches; if he is more successful running the ball, it's more likely that he will get more carries . . .
Click to expand...
Didn't watch many Dolphin games last year, did ya?
 
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