Player Spotlight: L.J. Smith (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: L.J. Smith, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: L.J. Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

Keg · Jul 16, 2007

CONTRACT YEAR

m_sell31 · Jul 16, 2007

Keg said:
CONTRACT YEAR

I believe he may miss a large portion of camp recovering still from hurnea surgery? He is my TE#1 in my 15 player keeper league, but I am having a hard time getting excited about him even with the contract year thing. I see about 45 catches 550 yards and 4 TD's.

shadyridr · Jul 16, 2007

Im assuming he will be healthy from his hernia for the start of the season. LJ has always been a good value TE to grab late. But he never seems to score TDs as much as you would like. He should still be a solid late TE #1.

60 rec, 780 yds, 4 tds

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

Keg said:
CONTRACT YEAR

That's an important point but not for the reason you may think. The Eagles have been resolute in their negotiations with young talent, and have made a habit of locking up key players to multi-year deals before their walk years. The Eagles willingness to let Smith head into FA, without any active negotiations (at least confirmed negotiations) tells you that we Eagles fans aren't the only ones unsure of Smith's future with the team.

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.

When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

kensat30 · Jul 16, 2007

LJ Smith looks like pretty good value to me. The guy is a lock to perform as a top10 TE if he fully recovers from his injury IMO. I don't really see him going top10 in any drafts thought.

Reminds me a lot of Alge Crumpler last year. The guy slipped a couple rounds in most drafts because of an offseason injury that really didn't end up hampering him during the season. That said, I'm not sure I would be comfortable with LJ because there is no guarantee that he will recover like Alge did. And with no offer coming out of Philly... it just adds to the concern.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

LHUCKS said:
This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.

When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career. http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

And over the last two years, where he's been the teams lone TE weapon of any import, he's been the 6th most targeted TE:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

Now look at his production per target relative to other TEs:

In the last two years (Smith's seasons as a main offensive weapon), he has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per target...good for a whopping 21st among NFL tight ends:

Rank Name POS YRs TARG FANT PT PTperTGT

1 Heath Miller te 2005--2006 87 127.4 1.46

2 Daniel Graham te 2005--2006 47 68 1.45

3 Owen Daniels te 2006--2006 45 61.6 1.37

4 Antonio Gates te 2005--2006 189 240.8 1.27

5 Chris Baker te 2005--2006 59 72.9 1.24

6 Dallas Clark te 2005--2006 91 111.7 1.23

7 Jeremy Shockey te 2005--2006 172 202 1.17

8 Alge Crumpler te 2005--2006 175 199.3 1.14

9 Chris Cooley te 2005--2006 142 159.1 1.12

10 David Martin te 2005--2006 61 66.2 1.09

11 Todd Heap te 2005--2006 166 179.2 1.08

12 Tony Gonzalez te 2005--2006 168 179.1 1.07

13 Ben Watson te 2005--2006 129 134.2 1.04

14 Courtney Anderson te 2005--2006 76 78.4 1.03

15 Desmond Clark te 2005--2006 100 100.9 1.01

16 Jason Witten te 2005--2006 135 135.7 1.01

17 George Wrighster te 2005--2006 67 67.2 1.00

18 Jerramy Stevens te 2005--2006 82 81.6 1.00

19 Daniel Wilcox te 2005--2006 48 47.7 0.99

20 Kellen Winslow Jr te 2006--2006 88 85.5 0.97

21 L.J. Smith te 2005--2006 152 146.5 0.96

22 Steve Heiden te 2005--2006 82 78.4 0.96

23 Erron Kinney te 2005--2005 69 65.7 0.95

24 Donald Lee te 2005--2006 45 42.6 0.95

25 Reggie Kelly te 2005--2006 42 39.6 0.94

26 Bo Scaife te 2005--2006 89 83 0.93

27 Ben Troupe te 2005--2006 81 74.7 0.92

28 Kris Mangum te 2005--2006 49 44.4 0.91

29 Ben Utecht te 2005--2006 43 38.2 0.89

30 Randy McMichael te 2005--2006 149 127.8 0.86

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

LHUCKS said:
Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

Just to further parse the fantasy points per target data:

2005-2006:

L.J. Smith = 23rd in receptions per target (TE position)
L.J. Smith = 25th in TDs per target (TE position)And yet more fun with L.J. Smith and his "lack of targets"...

Over the last two seasons, L.J. Smith has been targeted in the red zone more times than any TE not named Alge Crumpler. Yes, Smith has been targeted more than Antonio Gates, Todd Heap, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Cooley and Tony Gonzalez. Yet, of the 27 tight ends who have been thrown to at least 10 times in the red zone over that span, he ranks 18th in productivity.

Tight End: Most Targets, Red Zone (2005-2006):

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/d...att%2Brsh%2Brec

Alge Crumpler -- 33 targets
L.J. Smith -- 28 targets
Antonio Gates -- 24 targets
Randy McMichael -- 23 targets
Todd Heap -- 22 targets
Jeremy Shockey -- 21 targets
Tony Gonzalez -- 20 targets
Ben Watson -- 19 targets
Jermaine Wiggins -- 18 targets
Ben Troupe -- 17 targetsFantasy Points per Target, Tight End (2005-2006):

Code:

Rank	Name	POS 	YRs 	TARG 	FANT PT	FPT/Target1	Heath Miller	te	2005--2006	16	61.7	 3.86 2	Jeremy Shockey	te	2005--2006	21	72.2	 3.44 3	Antonio Gates	te	2005--2006	24	74.6	 3.11 4	George Wrighster	te	2005--2006	10	31	 3.10 5	Todd Heap	te	2005--2006	22	63.3	 2.88 6	David Martin	te	2005--2006	10	28.4	 2.84 7	Chris Cooley	te	2005--2006	16	44.4	 2.78 8	Courtney Anderson	te	2005--2006	14	34.9	 2.49 9	Steve Heiden	te	2005--2006	10	22.7	 2.27 10	Ben Troupe	te	2005--2006	17	38.2	 2.25 11	Ben Watson	te	2005--2006	19	39.8	 2.09 12	Jason Witten	te	2005--2006	14	28.3	 2.02 13	Dallas Clark	te	2005--2006	14	26.7	 1.91 14	Stephen Alexander	te	2005--2006	13	24.3	 1.87 15	Alge Crumpler	te	2005--2006	33	61.2	 1.85 16	Desmond Clark	te	2005--2006	16	29.2	 1.83 17	Eric Johnson	te	2006--2006	10	18.2	 1.82 18	L.J. Smith	te	2005--2006	28	50.4	 1.80 19	Reggie Kelly	te	2005--2006	10	17.7	 1.77 20	Jerramy Stevens	te	2005--2006	13	21.8	 1.68 21	Ernie Conwell	te	2005--2006	10	16.6	 1.66 22	Bo Scaife	te	2005--2006	14	22.9	 1.64 23	Tony Gonzalez	te	2005--2006	20	30	 1.50 24	Randy McMichael	te	2005--2006	23	31.9	 1.39 25	Erron Kinney	te	2005--2005	11	11	 1.00 26	Jermaine Wiggins	te	2005--2006	18	13.7	 0.76 27	Marcus Pollard	te	2005--2006	10	7.2	 0.72

L.J. Smith doesn't "need to be targeted more", he NEEDS TO DO MORE WITH EACH TARGET.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

LHUCKS said:
Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

Click to expand...

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

He gets thrown to in the red zone more than every NFL tight end save for Alge Crumpler...yet does far less with each opportunity in said red zone. Unless you think he needs to be THE most targeted tight end, I don't know what more opportunity he could ask for.

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

Click to expand...

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

Click to expand...

He gets thrown to in the red zone more than every NFL tight end save for Alge Crumpler...yet does far less with each opportunity in said red zone. Unless you think he needs to be THE most targeted tight end, I don't know what more opportunity he could ask for.

Hmmm...I don't recall him dropping many balls and I don't recall him having a hard time getting open. Not sure what to say other than your fantasy point/target statistic appears misleading to me as it relates to LJ. :unsure:

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

LHUCKS said:
Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

Click to expand...

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

Click to expand...

He gets thrown to in the red zone more than every NFL tight end save for Alge Crumpler...yet does far less with each opportunity in said red zone. Unless you think he needs to be THE most targeted tight end, I don't know what more opportunity he could ask for.

Click to expand...

Hmmm...I don't recall him dropping many balls and I don't recall him having a hard time getting open. Not sure what to say other than your fantasy point/target statistic appears misleading to me as it relates to LJ.

Empirically, it actually matches up exactly with what I've lived and breathed in the stands at the Linc. And also helps explain why the Eagles have made no effort to re-sign him despite it being their M.O. to lock down players to long-term deals.

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

Click to expand...

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

Click to expand...

He gets thrown to in the red zone more than every NFL tight end save for Alge Crumpler...yet does far less with each opportunity in said red zone. Unless you think he needs to be THE most targeted tight end, I don't know what more opportunity he could ask for.

Click to expand...

Hmmm...I don't recall him dropping many balls and I don't recall him having a hard time getting open. Not sure what to say other than your fantasy point/target statistic appears misleading to me as it relates to LJ.

Click to expand...

Empirically, it actually matches up exactly with what I've lived and breathed in the stands at the Linc. And also helps explain why the Eagles have made no effort to re-sign him despite it being their M.O. to lock down players to long-term deals.

Do you think it has anything to do with the Holmgren/Reid/49er/Mooch philosophy and how they use the TE??I don't think it's coincidence that this system rarely(if ever) produces a top fantasy TE...they produce top 10 guys, but rarely(if ever) top 3 guys.To me, LJ was destined to be a 5-10 TE as long as he played with Philly.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

LHUCKS said:
Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

Jason Wood said:

LHUCKS said:

This guy just needs more targets...it seems like he's always open and makes plays when he has the opportunity.When's the last time an Andy Reid TE finished top 5??

Click to expand...

LOL...more targets? LHUCKS, I expect better from you. He's the 8th most targeted TE in the league over his career.

Click to expand...

I didn't say he wasn't targeted, I'm simply stating he needs more targets...he's talented enough to finish #2 in TE scoring...but as you stated he never gets top 5 TE target status.

Click to expand...

LHUCKS...he's fairly unproductive with each target. The numbers don't back up your assertions...nor does his play on the field (having seen virtually every game he's played as a pro).

Click to expand...

I don't attribute that to Smith, I attribute it to the system. I've seen about 90% of his games(I watch every game, about half of them twice) and my humble opinion is that the guy has skills and isn't utilized enough.

Click to expand...

He gets thrown to in the red zone more than every NFL tight end save for Alge Crumpler...yet does far less with each opportunity in said red zone. Unless you think he needs to be THE most targeted tight end, I don't know what more opportunity he could ask for.

Click to expand...

Hmmm...I don't recall him dropping many balls and I don't recall him having a hard time getting open. Not sure what to say other than your fantasy point/target statistic appears misleading to me as it relates to LJ.

Click to expand...

Empirically, it actually matches up exactly with what I've lived and breathed in the stands at the Linc. And also helps explain why the Eagles have made no effort to re-sign him despite it being their M.O. to lock down players to long-term deals.

Click to expand...

Do you think it has anything to do with the Holmgren/Reid/49er/Mooch philosophy and how they use the TE??I don't think it's coincidence that this system rarely(if ever) produces a top fantasy TE...they produce top 10 guys, but rarely(if ever) top 3 guys.To me, LJ was destined to be a 5-10 TE as long as he played with Philly.

Well, certainly the "traditional" West Coast offenses have made much better use of their running backs in close. Look at William Henderson in Green Bay (3+ TD receptions in three seasons) or Westbrook (3+ TDs in four seasons), as examples. But at the end of the day, the Eagles have thrown to LJ in the red zone A LOT and he simply hasn't made plays.When I watch L.J., and I know other fans feel the same way, I feel like he never makes the easy plays. He sometimes makes an eye-catching reception, but misses so many that were layups. I can't tell you how many times we've been near the end zone only to have our QB throw to Smith and it go for naught, which then leads to so many people screaming about why we didn't throw to Westbrook or Brown or T.O. (gulp), etc...etc...

phthalatemagic · Jul 16, 2007

Should I submit numbers or just sit and watch?

Can I do both?

55/650/3

culdeus · Jul 16, 2007

I may just have to rethink my anti-spotlight bias.

pigskinliquors · Jul 16, 2007

I was having a fairly crappy day until that fun. Thanks!

nortobc · Jul 16, 2007

Did LJ Smith go to a Pac-10 school? :rant:

Righetti · Jul 16, 2007

RU RAH RAH

RU RAH RAH

HOO RAH HOO RAH

RUTGERS RAH

UP STREAM

RED TEAM

RED TEAM

UP STREAM

RAH

RAH

RUTGERS RAH

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

Let's keep the non sequitors to a minimum here folks.

BassNBrew · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
Let's keep the non sequitors to a minimum here folks.

Jason, I went to a PAC10 school so you'll have to explain the non sequitor thingy.

LHUCKS · Jul 16, 2007

I feel some prunage coming on...gotta love it when the FFA invades the pool. :lmao:

dickey moe · Jul 16, 2007

:spank:

Keg · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
Keg said:

CONTRACT YEAR

Click to expand...

That's an important point but not for the reason you may think. The Eagles have been resolute in their negotiations with young talent, and have made a habit of locking up key players to multi-year deals before their walk years. The Eagles willingness to let Smith head into FA, without any active negotiations (at least confirmed negotiations) tells you that we Eagles fans aren't the only ones unsure of Smith's future with the team.

nortobc said:
Did LJ Smith go to a Pac-10 school?

Righetti said:
RU RAH RAHRU RAH RAHHOO RAH HOO RAHRUTGERS RAHUP STREAMRED TEAMRED TEAMUP STREAMRAHRAHRUTGERS RAH

what he said....and jason I am a birds homer too and yeah it jumps out at me that the birds havent negotiated with him...so again I say CONTRACT YEAR...its a chance for him to get paid and fwiw I dont think that check will be coming from the birds

phthalatemagic · Jul 16, 2007

Keg said:
and jason I am a birds homer too and yeah it jumps out at me that the birds havent negotiated with him...so again I say CONTRACT YEAR...its a chance for him to get paid and fwiw I dont think that check will be coming from the birds

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year. I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year? Surely they aren't flying by the seat of their pants with regards to Smith, and I don't think their offense is friendly to rookie skill position players. So who do you expect to play TE for them, if Smith goes next year? (Sorry for hijack, pm me if you don't want to carry on with the hijack)

Bailiver · Jul 16, 2007

BassNBrew said:
Jason Wood said:

Let's keep the non sequitors to a minimum here folks.

Click to expand...

Jason, I went to a PAC10 school so you'll have to explain the non sequitor thingy.

P.O.T.D.

stevegamer · Jul 16, 2007

phthalatemagic said:
From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Correct

phthalatemagic said:
I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

stevegamer said:
phthalatemagic said:

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Click to expand...

Correct

phthalatemagic said:

I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

Click to expand...

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

You think Smith will have a career year coming off hernia surgery?

stevegamer · Jul 16, 2007

Jason Wood said:
stevegamer said:

phthalatemagic said:

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Click to expand...

Correct

phthalatemagic said:

I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

Click to expand...

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

Click to expand...

You think Smith will have a career year coming off hernia surgery?

You say "career year" and it sounds absurd, but .....Note that in my projection he's under his career on YPC. Also, it's only 1 more catch per game than he's averaged over the last 2 seasons - and he was hurt last year, too. As we both know, he has suffered from a lack of focus. I suspect that the contract year drive gets him focused, and some of those annoying lack of focus things get resolved.

The TD's are high, but TD's are flukey. Since he does get highly targetted in the red zone, and he is in a contract year, he has an opportunity to bounce up. I also think he will be extra motivated due to the lack of a long-term deal.

Jason Wood · Jul 16, 2007

stevegamer said:
Jason Wood said:

stevegamer said:

phthalatemagic said:

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Click to expand...

Correct

phthalatemagic said:

I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

Click to expand...

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

Click to expand...

You think Smith will have a career year coming off hernia surgery?

Click to expand...

You say "career year" and it sounds absurd, but .....Note that in my projection he's under his career on YPC. Also, it's only 1 more catch per game than he's averaged over the last 2 seasons - and he was hurt last year, too. As we both know, he has suffered from a lack of focus. I suspect that the contract year drive gets him focused, and some of those annoying lack of focus things get resolved.

The TD's are high, but TD's are flukey. Since he does get highly targetted in the red zone, and he is in a contract year, he has an opportunity to bounce up. I also think he will be extra motivated due to the lack of a long-term deal.

I'll be sitting in section 229 hoping you're right, but I wouldn't put my fantasy dollars on it. :thumbup:

Thanks for taking the time to defend your position though.

BassNBrew · Jul 17, 2007

Jason Wood said:
stevegamer said:

Jason Wood said:

stevegamer said:

phthalatemagic said:

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Click to expand...

Correct

phthalatemagic said:

I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

Click to expand...

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

Click to expand...

You think Smith will have a career year coming off hernia surgery?

Click to expand...

You say "career year" and it sounds absurd, but .....Note that in my projection he's under his career on YPC. Also, it's only 1 more catch per game than he's averaged over the last 2 seasons - and he was hurt last year, too. As we both know, he has suffered from a lack of focus. I suspect that the contract year drive gets him focused, and some of those annoying lack of focus things get resolved.

The TD's are high, but TD's are flukey. Since he does get highly targetted in the red zone, and he is in a contract year, he has an opportunity to bounce up. I also think he will be extra motivated due to the lack of a long-term deal.

Click to expand...

I'll be sitting in section 229 hoping you're right, but I wouldn't put my fantasy dollars on it. Thanks for taking the time to defend your position though.

Jason...Smith has tracked pretty close to that bogey in his McNabb started games.

rzrback77 · Jul 17, 2007

I looked over LJ Smith's recent stats and must admit that I was surprised by the lack of big time scoring. His four year career has all been in Philly. He has been very active playing in all but one game in the four years.

03 - 41 targets 27 catches (65.9%) 321 yards (11.9 ypa) and 1 TD

04 - 45 targets 34 catches (75.6%) 377 yards (11.1 ypa) and 5 TDs

05 - 107 targets 61 catches (57.0%) 682 yards (11.2 ypa) and 3 TDs

06 - 80 targets 50 catches (62.5%) 611 yards (12.2 ypa) and 5 TDs

But, in 06, even as he ranked as TE#9 for the season, he only had three games where he scored in double figures fantasy points. The last time being the highest score on the year, 11.7 points and his last game with McNabb. Count me among those that are afraid that either McNabb won't be ready to start at the beginning of the year or that he will attempt to start even though he is not ready.

I'm not looking at L.J. Smith as value as he appears to be getting drafted about where he has scored the past two seasons and I think that is overvalued. I am afraid to count on either McNabb being ready or Feeley if McNabb doesn't play. Combine that with a not so favorable outlook on Smith and I'll be staying away.

L.J. Smith 75 targets 45 catches (60.0%) for 477 yards and 4 TDs

Unlucky · Jul 17, 2007

Maybe if McNabb had any accuracy, Smith would do more with his targets?

:stirring the pot:

Bob Magaw · Jul 17, 2007

there is also data on drops (which i don't have handy... i think TO led NFL in '06, & troy williamson was "high up", possibly 2nd)...

do targets minus drops = catches? if not, & number is bigger (targets minus drops) than reception number... would that speak to QB accuracy?

* of course, with below average relative production PER TARGET data, we might infer more pessimistic things...

not having nifty RAC ability...

not getting open, & yielding unusual numbers of PD from DBs covering smith...

running short routes?

not having great WRs around him? but that could be said about a lot of the top TEs... anyways, PHI had better WRs in recent years (TO, stallworth, reggie brown), after a nasty spate of stinkston, freddie mitchell-type whiffs... and brian westbrook is a better WR from RB than most WRs are from WR...

Bri · Jul 17, 2007

Smith is a difficult TE to have in FF. He goes high enough(not too high) that you should be assured some production but his numbers are just a smidge better than the average TE. If ya look at last year's week to week stats he was very good the first 2 weeks and then .....it just sorta fizzled for him.

I think he's a very good player but we're talking FF production here and he sure doesn't make ya happy on Sunday unless he scores a TD

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/SmitL.00.htm#2006

MPhilly03 · Jul 17, 2007

As a Philly homer and an LJ Smith owner I am very interested in this thread. I also wanted to add the Eagles did in fact draft a TE in the fifth round. Brent Celek is from Cincinnati and seems like the kind of player the Eagles like to groom. Not sure if he could potentially replace Smith next year but with the Eagles interest in locking up their own (when they want to) it seems like the position may be open next year. For this year I would see a healthy Smith landing in the Top 10 with about 55 catches, 625 yards and 5 TD's.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · Jul 17, 2007

I always see LJ as value and yet he never lives up to the hype, seems as if the stats Wood is throwing out there makes alot of sense to me.

Good posting Woody

Jayrod · Jul 17, 2007

In my opintion, LJ Smith is the clear cut #10 TE this year, basically in his own tier. He is in a good situation and has a consistant history. The problem is, that history isn't great. He isn't as good as Cooley or Witten, but is a much more solid TE than Dallas Clark, Heath Miller and Ben Watson. If you missed on the first 9 TE's, draft LJ......but I wouldn't want to be the one in that spot.

His average production over the last 2 years is 56 catches for 647 yards & 4TD's. That's right about where he should be this year.

glock · Jul 17, 2007

dickey moe said:
:spank:

I needed that.

Keg · Jul 17, 2007

MPhilly03 said:
As a Philly homer and an LJ Smith owner I am very interested in this thread. I also wanted to add the Eagles did in fact draft a TE in the fifth round. Brent Celek is from Cincinnati and seems like the kind of player the Eagles like to groom. Not sure if he could potentially replace Smith next year but with the Eagles interest in locking up their own (when they want to) it seems like the position may be open next year. For this year I would see a healthy Smith landing in the Top 10 with about 55 catches, 625 yards and 5 TD's.

I just might be the only dynasty owner(LJ Owner) that drafted Celek in a rookie draft :confused:

dotman · Jul 17, 2007

stevegamer said:
Jason Wood said:

stevegamer said:

phthalatemagic said:

From you informed Eagles fans, it sounds like the Eagles' MO is to not let players they covet enter their contract year.

Click to expand...

Correct

phthalatemagic said:

I don't know much about their TE situation, but why didn't they draft one this year?

Click to expand...

This points out the biggest problem with their draft - it ignored this year, while also not shoring up a spot they will need next year. A guy like Patrick out of Delaware would've helped.Smith is a rasonably good FF TE - he gets targets on a team that throws the ball. I think he gets motivated htis year, and finally produces more, and then walks.

70 catches, 735 yards, 7 TD.

Click to expand...

You think Smith will have a career year coming off hernia surgery?

Click to expand...

You say "career year" and it sounds absurd, but .....Note that in my projection he's under his career on YPC. Also, it's only 1 more catch per game than he's averaged over the last 2 seasons - and he was hurt last year, too. As we both know, he has suffered from a lack of focus. I suspect that the contract year drive gets him focused, and some of those annoying lack of focus things get resolved.

The TD's are high, but TD's are flukey. Since he does get highly targetted in the red zone, and he is in a contract year, he has an opportunity to bounce up. I also think he will be extra motivated due to the lack of a long-term deal.

Eagle homer here...Up until last year I was an L.J. suppporter...but...IMO, there is 2 different types of focus you can talk about. L.J. has always seemed to have lacked that in game focus, something I feel is more of an innate trait. He'll make some flashy plays, and give glimpses that would make you think he could be more of a playmaker than he has been. But he just isn't consistent catching the ball, especially the easy ones, and his blocking never impressed me either.

As for your contract year "focus", I don't think it applies to what he lacks. He doesn't have a rep as a slacker and he always looked like he was in great shape, I think many guys have better seasons in contract years because they work harder in the off season. I don't think L.J. needs the type of focus a contract year provides. I just can't see him gaining more of an in game mental focus just because it is a contract year.

I also don't think you can say "only" 1 more catch per game. For some perspective, what you're expecting is a 29% increase in catches over what he has averaged the last 2 years. And he is coming off hernia surgery. Those are very unrealistic expectations, I don't think many players see that high of a jump just because they are playing for a payday.

As Jason said, I'd be happy to be wrong about that, but right now I just don't see it happening.

56 rec., 655 yards, 5 TD's

None_More_Black · Jul 17, 2007

Philly homer who has owned lj the last couple of years. (also a Rutgers alum who watched him in college) As a few people have mentioned, he has concentration problems. He is also undersized and not a good blocker. I think if he can eliminate the mental mistakes he could have a good year. The contract situation should motivate him. I do think Curtis could cut into into his production because after stallworth started coming on last year, lj's numbers declined. He comes cheap for a decent te which is why I usually wind up with him. I have no problems owning him again if he is fully recovered from the hernia.

ThisGuy · Jul 18, 2007

LJ Smith needs a baseball mitt to catch some of Donovan's patented 2-hoppers.

MPhilly03 · Aug 20, 2007

Keg said:
MPhilly03 said:

As a Philly homer and an LJ Smith owner I am very interested in this thread. I also wanted to add the Eagles did in fact draft a TE in the fifth round. Brent Celek is from Cincinnati and seems like the kind of player the Eagles like to groom. Not sure if he could potentially replace Smith next year but with the Eagles interest in locking up their own (when they want to) it seems like the position may be open next year. For this year I would see a healthy Smith landing in the Top 10 with about 55 catches, 625 yards and 5 TD's.

Click to expand...

I just might be the only dynasty owner(LJ Owner) that drafted Celek in a rookie draft

Looks like you might have done well there then! I know Bloom is not a fan but it is clear that the Eagles like this kid and view him in the Chad Lewis mold. The type of player that gets it done on the field though he may not be a workout warrior. Depending on LJ's health he could be looking at a decent amount of playing time this year and he could be the man next year.

stevegamer · Aug 20, 2007

Celek has won me over - I really didn't like the pick, as I thought were other TE's I would've preferred later - Patrick from DE was one, but the kid just seems to get open enough and catch the ball.

He's not great after the catch, but he's more than adequate.

Strangely enough he reminds me of John Kruk. Not directly, but kind of awkward & lumbering but faster than you think - Kruk hit a lot of triples, which for a guy built like him was kind of interesting.

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