Doug Drinen
Moderator
I didn't even know this thread was here until after I had finished writing that post.
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Steve Smith: Why is he the consensus #1 receiver? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
I didn't even know this thread was here until after I had finished writing that post.
Football Jones
Footballguy
That pretty much tells it all. Unless you believe he's an injury risk, he's the clear #1, IMO.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I think the other skill positions people see a bit of a cushion between the #1 and the candidates for #2. That's really the only difference. As I said, I would be happy with any of the Top 5 WRs and would not really find fault with anyone making a case for their guy to be #1. I was just answering your question as to WHY?A bit like asking who your favorite Jessica is (Simpson, Alba, Biel, etc.). I'm sure the #3 option would still be pretty good.
EBF
Footballguy
I can't say I understand the massive amounts of love for Smith. He's a very solid receiver, but he's no Owens, Moss, or Harrison.Personally, I like Chad Johnson as the WR1 this year.
SSOG
Moderator
Key point. Carolina is to WR1s what Denver is to RBs- good WRs become studs, great WRs become All-World. No WR has played in Carolina and *NOT* finished in the top 2 in PPG since the 2003 season.
You forgot to mention that Smiff only played 30 games while everyone else on that list played 32. Play the pro-rate game and Smiff would have been good for 441 points, almost FIFTY more than the #2. FIFTY POINTS.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
1) To me, being "one of the better" QBs means you rank at least in the top 10, but perhaps you define it differently as is your right. To that end, his passer rating ranks:2006 -- 13th
2005 -- 12th
2004 -- 12th
over those years you brought up.
2) I also said he was NOT in the bottom half, but thought that wasn't good enough to warrant being called "one of the better"
Mark Wimer
Moderator
Personally, I have Smith at #3 and Marvin Harrison at #1 - Harrison with 1200-1300 yards and 12-13 TDs vs. Smith at 1300-1400 with 10-11 TDs. The uptick for Smith from last year due to the departure of Keyshawn Johnson and the lack of an established WR#2. It's very close on my WR board in the top tier, with the top 6 WR within 8 FP over the whole season (essentially all 6 are worthy of being the first WR off the boards, IMO).
you are so right he isnt a cancer like Owenshe plays hard ALL the time, Unlike Moss and he actually turns it up a notch in the playoffs, unlike harrisonI can't say I understand the massive amounts of love for Smith. He's a very solid receiver, but he's no Owens, Moss, or Harrison.Personally, I like Chad Johnson as the WR1 this year.
Norseman
Footballguy
David Yudkin
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
All I care about is the numbers. And when you look at the numbers, Smith doesn't really stack up with those guys in their prime.you are so right he isnt a cancer like Owenshe plays hard ALL the time, Unlike Moss and he actually turns it up a notch in the playoffs, unlike harrison
well you are sorta right: i can search for it if you want but i posted numbers last yr for smiths last 32 games and owens and moss never accomplished what smitty did in a 32 game span only harrison(twice) and holt(once) had of any active WRsAll I care about is the numbers. And when you look at the numbers, Smith doesn't really stack up with those guys in their prime.you are so right he isnt a cancer like Owenshe plays hard ALL the time, Unlike Moss and he actually turns it up a notch in the playoffs, unlike harrison
chris1969
Footballguy
* 2001: 10 receptions for 154 yards and 0 TDs [WR114] First year unknown that was only returning kicks/punts (He went to the probowl for it BTW)* 2002: 54 receptions for 872 yards and 3 TDs [WR42] Was supposed to be the #3 receiver, but he over-achieved
* 2003: 88 receptions for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs [WR15] When everybody started to realize that he was something special.
* 2004: 6 receptions for 60 yards and 0 TDs [WR141]Broke his leg first week. (There's your anomaly) screws up 3yr stats
* 2005: 103 receptions for 1,563 yards and 12 TDs [WR1] nuff said
* 2006: 83 receptions for 1,166 yards and 8 TDs [WR8] despite Jake's struggles.
I still like the guy @ #1. Harrison an CJ both have improving receivers going out on routes along with them. Carolina has to throw it to Smith to win. I see a higher ceiling and a higher floor for Smith, but that's just my humble opinion.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Steve Smith has had games of 12/218, 11/201, 8/189, 11/170 and 14/169 in the past two seasons. Owens, Harrison and Fitzgerald have had one game with as many receiving yards as 169 in the past two years. Holt has had zero. Chad Johnson has had three. Steve Smith is also the only player in the NFL with two 200 yard receiving games over the past two seasons.
Smith goes in spurts where he's simply unstoppable. I don't think it's hard to see why he should be the consensus #1.
Smith goes in spurts where he's simply unstoppable. I don't think it's hard to see why he should be the consensus #1.
Sideline Sage
Footballguy
and don't forget, Smith has a favorable schedule.
ceo3west
Footballguy
Smith also had 7 games last year where he had less than 70 yards receiving. I do like Smith, but to pick a guy who has reached double digit TD's once in his career as the #1 WR overall before a guy like Harrison is obscene IMO.
ExtraPoint
Footballguy
Lord Lucan
Footballguy
This is the key for me. Last year Keyshawn had 128 targets. The previous year, the next-most targetted WR after Smith was Keary Colbert with 55. Regardless of who ends up as the WR2 in Carolina this year, I don't think they get 128 targets. Funnily enough, Smith's targets only dropped by 10 last year from the previous year (150 down to 140) but I reckon they'll lean on him more than ever this year.
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
Smith is too small to ever be considered the best WR in the NFL...much less #1 in FF. No way.
Lord Lucan
Footballguy
Wow, this is big news. How much exactly has he shrunk since he was the #1 fantasy WR in 2005?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Three of those games Chris Weinke was the starter who if you didn't notice is horrible. If you want to hold that against Steve Smith that's just dumb. In the remaining 4 games Steve Smith had a touchdown and rushing yards in three of them. He had 79 total yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, Steve Smith had 69 total yards and a touchdown against the Eagles (A game in which Jake Delhomme had a severly sprained hand). He had only 34 yards against the Redskins but still scored a touchdown. Even in his worst game so to speak when he played the Browns he still had 6 catches for 60 yards not great but no wide receiver is great every week. Steve Smith just happens to be great more weeks than anybody else.
I don't see how it's obscene to have the best receiver in the NFL who actaully was the #1 fantasy wide receiver the season before last and ranked 2nd in PPG in 2006 (With Weinke he should be #1 in PPG) be considered higher than Marvin Harrison. Harrison is great but he will be 35 years old when the season starts. The Colts also lost their left tackle and best offensive lineman. For me to say Harrison will be the #1 wide receiver this season and not look at what's going against him would just be naive.
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
Well, he's too small to ever do it again then.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Steve Smith- 5 feet 9 inches 179 poundsMarvin Harrison 6 feet 0 inches 181 pounds
Not a huge difference there. If you want to say 3 inches make a big deal then TO (6 feet 3 inches 217) should be a much better receiver right? How many times has Marvin Harrison been the #1 fantasy wide receiver? 4 times (1999,2001,2002,2006) How many times for Owens? Zero.
Size don't matter.
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
Yeah but at that size, he's injury prone. Probably not as tough either.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
SLOD (SLBD) has drafted Smith in just about every league I've seen him play in.
Sea Leopard of Death
Footballguy
Best WR in the NFL. 
Ned
Footballguy
SLOD (SLBD) has drafted Smith in just about every league I've seen him play in.
Here's a comment.Joey freaking Galloway. I would not have guessed that in a million years.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
The Man with the Plan said:
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Seeing Jason and Doug battle it out on Smith motivated me to chime in last night. Why is Steve Smith the consensus #1 WR? Because he's the best.
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dgreen
Footballguy
Top 10 in RecYds/gm the last three years and their StDev:
I actually looked at 46 players who had 2000+ receiving yards since 2004. Smith has the highest StDev of them all. But, it's not because he suffers from extreme lows. It's because he's been able to hit such extreme highs! When looking at -1 StDev for all 46 players, Smith ranks 6th at 37.4 yards, in the neighborhood of Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne. Yet, Smith's +1 StDev is 9 yards higher than CJ's and 25-30 yards higher than Harrison's and Wayne's.
Code:
PLAYER GMS YARDS AVG STDEV +1 -1Steve Smith 31 2789 90.0 52.6 142.5 37.4Terrell Owens 37 3143 84.9 39.5 124.4 45.5Chad Johnson 48 4075 84.9 48.3 133.2 36.6Torry Holt 46 3891 84.6 41.8 126.3 42.8Anquan Boldin 40 3228 80.7 38.6 119.3 42.1Donald Driver 48 3724 77.6 42.0 119.5 35.6Marvin Harrison 47 3625 77.1 40.8 117.9 36.3Javon Walker 33 2493 75.5 44.0 119.6 31.5Darrell Jackson 35 2637 75.3 34.6 110.0 40.7Reggie Wayne 48 3575 74.5 38.3 112.8 36.2Ah....it's posts and analysis like this that make this such a fun place. Nice work.
Unlucky
Phenom
For me, the main reason is that Keyshawn is no longer there. I don't see the other WRs filling up all of Keyshawn's numbers, so some of that goes back to Smith. Keyshawn saw 128 targets last year.
I've done the research in the past that shows that the #2 WR doesn't matter overall. However, in specific cases, it could help or hurt a WR. In my opinion, Smith being the 1 and only option in the passing game will help him because his targets will be insane.
Finally, just because he's the consensus #1 doesn't mean people think of him like Tomlinson as the consensus #1 RB. LT is far above everyone else. Smith is barely above Holt, Harrison, Chad, and TO in most people's rankings. In fact, I have 2 points separating them in a non-PPR scoring system. (minus Holt)
I've done the research in the past that shows that the #2 WR doesn't matter overall. However, in specific cases, it could help or hurt a WR. In my opinion, Smith being the 1 and only option in the passing game will help him because his targets will be insane.
Finally, just because he's the consensus #1 doesn't mean people think of him like Tomlinson as the consensus #1 RB. LT is far above everyone else. Smith is barely above Holt, Harrison, Chad, and TO in most people's rankings. In fact, I have 2 points separating them in a non-PPR scoring system. (minus Holt)
SSOG
Moderator
Good things happen when you get 293 targets in back-to-back seasons. For the record, that's actually 4 MORE targets than Smiff has (289), and *13* more than Harrison has (280). Chad Johnson has 307, and Torry Holt has 342 (
). People tend to underrate the "opportunity" portion of the "Production = Talent + Opportunity" equation.By the way, that Torry Holt thing isn't likely to change anytime soon, since Linehan is one of the most historic abusers of his WR1 in NFL history (Chris freakin' Chambers nearly led the league in targets under Linehan, and we all know all about Randy Moss). It does underscore a very big point, though- it hasn't been very noticeable because the end-of-year numbers have looked so good, but Holt has very quietly been declining for a couple of years now. His per-play metrics have been falling off sharply, and only his insane number of targets have kept him afloat. The Torry Holt of old would never have gotten 50+ more targets than any other WR (an almost 20% advantage) and been outscored by 50+ points. It just wouldn't have happened. Not too big of a concern in fantasy circles since, like I said, I think Scott Linehan sometimes forgets that he has up to 5 eligible receivers on any given play, just something to make a note of.
dgreen
Footballguy
Can you pin-point when it started to fall and what events correlate with that fall? When Faulk started to decline? When the STL D started to decline? When Bruce started to decline?
2005He basically had the same stats in 2005 as 2004 but had 30 more targets. It is probably a combination of factors.I'd say 2005 was a down year for him due to his own injuries and the injury to Bulger.I'd say the trend continued in 2006 because they switched from a Mike Martz offense to a Scott Linehan offense.
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Banger
Footballguy
and the most important reason...because he had a knee injury.
SSOG
Moderator
Holt has had a lot of stuff going on around him the past two years, especially injury-wise, so I'm not excessively concerned about a drop in per-play production. His total production is going to remain in the top 5-10 for as long as he's so heavily targeted (and he's probably going to be so heavily targeted for as long as Scott Linehan is in town- Linehan is to WRs what Norv Turner is to RBs). Also, Holt's upside is phenomenal- with as many targets as he gets, if he returns to his per-play numbers of the past, he's capable of blowing up again like he did in 2003.
BigRed
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
He has already had hammy and back issues in camp. Enough to miss practice and have an MRI.
BigRed
Footballguy
No, he's not. He's a great choice for #1, but no way is he far and above the rest. Any of at least 3 or 4 others deserve consideration.
BigRed
Footballguy
I heard about a "tweaked hamstring" which IMO is him trying to get out of pratices, but couldn't say for sure. Didn't know about the "back issues" - wtf?He has already had hammy and back issues in camp. Enough to miss practice and have an MRI.
To get back to the topic at hand.Steve Smith's per target production is phenomenal. And he is line to get ~10 targets per game. That is why he is ranked #1. When you look at per target production the only players on his level are Harrison, Wayne, Walker, and Evans. I could see a case being made for either Harrison or Wayne but I think they will likely limit each others abilities to hit the target numbers that Smith will see. And, while I absolutely love Walker and Evans I don't think they will be anywhere near the target numbers that Smith will put up.
SSOG
Moderator
Copied from the Javon Walker Spotlight:Q-Bert said:
On a per-target basis, Smiff wasn't just behind Harrison, Wayne, Walker, and Evans... he was also behind Darrell Jackson, Marques Colston, Plaxico Burress, Terrell Owens, and Terry Glenn, coming in at 10th overall out of 37, or just outside the top 25%. It's not his per-target numbers that impress me (although he does have very good per-target numbers), it's more his total target numbers.Here's a list of points-per-target from last season for every WR with 100+ targets. Generally, this list will highlight which WRs were efficient at converting opportunities into points.
1.41 - Marvin Harrison
1.40 - Javon Walker
1.39 - Darrell Jackson
1.35 - Reggie Wayne
1.32 - Marques Colston
1.31 - Plaxico Burress
1.30 - Terrell Owens
1.29 - Lee Evans
1.29 - Terry Glenn
1.26 - Steve Smith
1.22 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh
1.22 - Santana Moss
1.21 - Larry Fitzgerald
1.18 - Chad Johnson
1.16 - Eddie Kennison
1.13 - Roy Williams
1.13 - Bernard Berrian
1.08 - Hines Ward
1.08 - Jerricho Cotchery
1.06 - Mark Clayton
1.05 - Joey Galloway
1.04 - Donald Driver
1.02 - Braylon Edwards
1.01 - Isaac Bruce
1.00 - Torry Holt
1.00 - Reche Caldwell
0.99 - Deion Branch
0.99 - Muhsin Muhammad
0.99 - Mike Furrey
0.98 - Laveranues Coles
0.97 - Anquan Boldin
0.89 - Andre Johnson
0.86 - Keyshawn Johnson
0.77 - Derrick Mason
0.77 - Greg Jennings
0.74 - Wes Welker
0.66 - Chris Chambers ()
Dare I say this report is from who i feel is the best out here for NFL player information.
PLAYER NOTES --RB DeShaun Foster looked good in an intrasquad scrimmage on Saturday, gaining 17 yards on three carries. He ran with strength and conviction, hitting the holes hard and quick. --RB DeAngelo Williams could see a lot of action as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Giving Williams the ball with room to run makes a lot of sense given his quickness. --QB David Carr performed well during an intrasquad scrimmage completing 5 of 7 passes for 55 yards while leading the second-team offense to a field goal against the first-team defense.
--WR Steve Smith continues to look dominant on the practice field and if he stays healthy there's no reason to believe he won't lead the league in receptions and receiving yards this
PLAYER NOTES --RB DeShaun Foster looked good in an intrasquad scrimmage on Saturday, gaining 17 yards on three carries. He ran with strength and conviction, hitting the holes hard and quick. --RB DeAngelo Williams could see a lot of action as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Giving Williams the ball with room to run makes a lot of sense given his quickness. --QB David Carr performed well during an intrasquad scrimmage completing 5 of 7 passes for 55 yards while leading the second-team offense to a field goal against the first-team defense.
--WR Steve Smith continues to look dominant on the practice field and if he stays healthy there's no reason to believe he won't lead the league in receptions and receiving yards this
BigRed
Footballguy
....who you think so highly of you didn't mention his name or provide a link.
I've yet to hear 1 compelling reason why Smith should be the CONSENSUS #1.[zen]you will never hear it if you dont want to hear it[/zen]....who you think so highly of you didn't mention his name or provide a link.
SSOG
Moderator
Here's a compelling reason- maybe everyone who voted values the same thing (last two season's PPG, plus Muhammad's PPG in 2004).Just because someone is a CONSENSUS #1 doesn't mean that he's a #1 by a huge margin. Everyone could think that the top 6 WRs are 1a/1b/1c/1d/1e/1f, and it just so happens that they have Smiff as the #1a by the slimmest of margins over the 1b. What's wrong with that? Should people manipulate their own rankings for no reason other than to alter the group averages? Should they say "Hmmm... it's weird that we all agree he's going to be 1a by the slimmest of margins, and that might project a degree of certainty that I don't think anyone really shares, so despite the fact that I think Smiff is the #1 WR by a hair, I'm going to rank him 6th to get his average a little bit closer to Chad Johnson's"?What's the problem here? It seems that we all agree that there are reasonable, valid reasons to rank Smiff #1. It just so happens that a lot of the staff went and did something that we all agree is perfectly justified. It's a little bit odd, perhaps, and worth noting, but if there's a valid reason for someone to be the #1, then there's a valid reason for him to be the CONSENSUS #1 as long as it's a consensus of people who, through sheer happenstance, value that reason highly.....who you think so highly of you didn't mention his name or provide a link.I've yet to hear 1 compelling reason why Smith should be the CONSENSUS #1.
