Here's my pick-by-pick rundown of my draft. Overall, I thought I was in pretty good control, taking players as I wanted them, and starting runs instead of finishing them (with the exception of PK). I'm happy with my team.
1.03 Antonio Gates, TE SDG
I had LT and Jackson predrafted 1-2, and they went 1-2. Here it was a choice
between Gates, LJ, and Manning. With LJ holding out, I wasn't willing to
take the risk. Manning was a plausible selection, but I expect with
Glenn (Go Bears!) retiring that his numbers will take a bump down. He
might still be the #1 QB, but I don't expect it will be by a large margin.
With Gates I'm looking at huge VBD totals even with fairly conservative
projections (3-year minimum), and very little downside.
2.14 TJ Houshmanzadeh, WR CIN
Dammit, I knew Tony Gonzalez wasn't going to get by Mr. "Stud TE Theory"
There It Is. All the RB value is long gone, so I'm not considering anyone
other than TEs and WRs here--both expected points and VBD for WRs and TEs
are huge compared to the remaining RBs. I have Housh as 50 points and 15
VBD points above the next-highest RB; and that's even before I account for
the fact that FBG has Jones-Drew rated way too high. (Time to adjust
projections...)
3.03 Jeremy Shockey, TE NYG
Simple points/VBD choice here; Shockey is #1, slightly ahead of a few
WRs. The #1 WR on my board is Driver, and I don't like the risk there
with his current injury, so taking my second TE is an easy choice. I
took a brief look at the highest RB on my board, just because it's
Marshawn Lynch, who I'd love to have on my team, but I have Shockey
with 70 more points and 40 more VBD points, and I just can't justify
that much homerism.
4.14 Deion Branch, WR SEA
The running backs have started to come back into the value range due
to a very impressive run on the other positions. In terms of raw
points, I have Braylon Edwards as the #1 overall on my board, but I
don't really like him or his situation much. Branch is an underrated
receiver and I think Seattle is really being sold short with current
projections. I'm taking a bit of a risk here, in that I have a
preference for the #1 RB on my board (still Marshawn Lynch!), but I'm
taking the chance that the two players who will pick before my next
selection, who have five RBs between them already, will try to jump on
the end of the WR/TE/QB run instead of getting into the next tier of
RBs. After Lynch, I have about six guys who are in the same tier, so
if I miss out on my boy Marshawn, I'll at least get someone. The WRs
in this tier are still outscoring the RBs, and still have a small edge
in DVBD, but the VBD is now in party, and I'm going to have to start
looking at positional need at some point.
5.03 Marshawn Lynch, RB BUF (Go Bears!)
At the turn of the fifth round, DVBD for my #1 RB finally caught up
with my #1 WR (Lynch and Edwards, respectively). Lynch has been
sitting there as my #1 RB since early in the third round--and it's not
like I have him projected for some enormous season, either. (I have
him with 1300 total yards and 9 TDs). But amazingly, we went from
3.03 to 4.10 without selecting a single RB; how many leagues do you
see that in? We're getting used to these weird rules, in our third
year here. As to Lynch, he may wind up in RBBC, but he can hit those
numbers even in RBBC; he's a special talent, and Buffalo should be
improved on offense. Buffalo was last in the league in number of
offensive plays in 2006; even if that improves just to #25, it would
mean another 50-100 plays. For taking my first RB in the fifth round,
I'm quite happy with this choice.
6.14 Arizona TMQB
I've always felt that Leinart was a better QB than Palmer at USC, and
he has outstanding weapons in Arizona. And right now, Dodds is
projecting fewer passing yards in 2007 than they managed in 2006,
and only a slight bump in TDs. I think the upside here is enormous;
Arizona TMQB had 4900 total yards in 2005. They're not going to throw
it 669 times again, but the 545 attempts they had in 2006 should be
repeatable, and Leinart should be better with a year under his belt.
Other possibilities here were DJ Hackett (slightly better VBD, but I
don't want to double-dip since I already have Branch, and I think he
has risk), Ravens or Giants TMQB (but I like Arizona's receiving corps
better), and Terry Glenn, who seems like quite a bargain at this
point. I'm going to target Glenn with my next pick.
7.03 Terry Glenn, WR DAL
In 2005, Glenn was one of the difference-makers in this format, coming
out of nowhere to put up a huge season. It's not realistic to expect
a repeat of that performance, but at this point in the auction, he's
priced to not even match 2006's performance. He's my #1 in VBD and is
also near the top of DVBD (although Vernand Morency is currently #1 by
DVBD--but that's based on lame projections, plus he's hurt. Next RBs are
Dunn and C.Taylor, also in questionable situations). Other than my #2 QB,
this is probably the last position pick that I'll be able to project
as providing solid production; after this point I'll be trying to fill
gaps and look for upside.
8.14 Leon Washington, RB NYJ
I'm still gonna need 4 RBs, and all the legit starters are gone. I'm looking
for good role players who'll get consistent touches, with upside if the
situation goes well. Washington doesn't have much chance to beat out
Thomas Jones for the starting job, but he'll definitely be used on third
downs and will provide some scoring in that role. Not an exciting pick;
more like filling a slot. Other RB possibilities were Morency and Dunn,
still at the top by projected score but with huge questions. I also
considered Derrick Mason, as an underrated solid performer.
9.03 Kevin Jones, RB DET
The value's looking pretty flat across positions; Ds and Ks are starting to
creep up. But I decided to take a bit of a flier here; Jones has potential
to be huge, but it all depends on his lisfranc injury. As the 41st RB off
the board, it wouldn't take much production to live up to this pick, but
there's still a possibility that he'll play fewer than 8 games. I'm not
that concerned with the competition from Bell; I think Jones will be the
clear guy if he's there and healthy. But the health is an issue. Boom or
bust pick. I again considered Mason, but there are a lot of other WRs
out there still, while RBs are starting to drop off sharply.
10.14 Ruben Droughns, RB NYG
I'm still going to need another RB. Even with fairly low projections
(560 total yards and 3 TDs), Droughns comes up here as the top
position player in VBD and DVBD by far. He's not likely to make a big
impact, but I'll be happy if I can get 100 points out of him. My
alternatives were the top kickers and defenses (whose projections I
don't really believe), and one of the diminishing number of QBs. The
problem with the QBs is that the one who is listed highest by Dodds
(Cleveland) is the one that I'm least interested in; I think Miami and
Oakland are underrated by current projections; really, the only QBs
left who I don't want to get stuck with are Cleveland, Minnesota, and
Atlanta, and the first two of those those are the top two left by Dodds'
projections. So I'm hoping that someone grabs those two and gives me
some time to fill out other positions. I'm glad to be done with my
RBs (unless I decide to take a flier on Adimchinobe Echemandu later).
11.03 Adam Vinatieri, K IND
The first kicker off the board! The top 10 VBD players at this point
are all kickers, and there's nothing compelling going on in DVBD
either. The QB situation hasn't changed, so it's time for the best K
on the board. One other thing that's nice about Vinatieri, other than
that he's a good kicker on a great offensive team, is the playoff
issue. I largely ignore the playoff issue for position players,
because the expected extra game or two will likely be offset by a game
or two at the end of the season where the skill position players sit
out all or part of the game to avoid injury. Kickers and defenses
play even in meaningless games, so playoff-likely Ks and Ds get a
notch more weight. I also considered Marty Booker here; I think Miami
is being seriously underrated in terms of a passing offense; Booker
had 747/6 last year, and right now Dodds has Miami throwing for 400
yards less than they did last year. But I'm thinking there's some
energy stored up around kickers, so I'm hoping to start a kicker run
and get Booker next round.
12.14 Peerless Price, WR BUF
VBD pick here; he's the only position player who's competing with the
kickers. The kicker run didn't happen (and Booker went just 2 picks
after my last one), so rather than take another kicker high, I'm going
to sit and wait on Longwell as a homer pick, probably targeting pick
16.14 or 17.03 depending on the needs of the folks at the turns. Price
had a strange season last year, getting 45 receptions but only 8.2 yards
per catch; I'm betting that's an aberration, which gives him a fair amount
of upside even if you don't think he'll return to his Buffalo glory days
(which I don't.)
13.03 Miami TMQB
Kansas City and Miami ranked #22 and #12 in passing yardage last year.
Right now, after Trent Green moved from KC to Miami (replacing Joey
Harrington), Dodds has them both ranked in the bottom 3. Doesn't make
sense to me; he has Miami with 400 fewer passing yards this year than
they had last year with Harrington. Even at age 38, Green is a much
better QB than Joey Harrington, and there are decent receivers in
Miami. I really don't want to get stick with Minnesota or Cleveland,
so with only 4 QBs left and a boatload of picks before my next chance,
it's time to pull the trigger. Miami TMQB was also the highest on the
DVBD list based on my modest projections (3500 yards, 18 TD 16 INT).
14.14 Colts D
Defenses are looking the best by VBD, and there's nothing else
compelling out there, so it's time to start stocking up. This unit
really came on late last year and through the Super Bowl, and the
addition of Dante (formerly Daymeion) Hughes should both improve
the secondary, and increase the Cal quotient.
15.03 Bengals D
Defenses are still looking good by VBD. This unit can generate a lot
of turnovers, so it's a middle of the road defense with upside. The
other choice I considered here was Ryan Longwell (Go Bears!), but I'm
hoping he lasts until my next pick; by that time, the defenses are going
to be looking pretty shaky.
16.14 Sebastian Janikowski, K OAK
There was a kicker panic during round 16, and Longwell got snapped up
a few picks before me. Fortunately, my second choice remained. I think
a very important part of selecting a marginal kicker in this format
is making sure it's someone whose job is guaranteed. Oakland may not
have a great offense, but I am very confident that Seabass will be kicking
for them all year. He has a great leg and good accuracy.
17.03 Brandon LLoyd, WR WAS
I need a WR, and the pickings are pretty slim at this point. Lloyd
had a crappy year last year, but so did Antwaan Randle El (who I also
considered here). He's the only nominal Wr starter left on the board;
if he manages even 40 receptions he'll be a bargain down here. Other
possibilities were Maurice Stovall (too much risk at this point), Eric
Parker (ditto), David Boston (even more so), Mike Williams (ditto), etc.
Scary stuff. This leaves me with just my flex to fill; one guy I'm
thinking of is Leonard Pope, but I'm also considering Dominic Rhodes
or Adimchinobe Echemandu (keeping a close eye on training camp reports
for that one).
18.14 Dominic Rhodes, RB OAK
I'm not sure how Rhodes has flown under the radar for so long. He's not
a great RB and he's not in a great situation, but he still has the potential
to start 12 games. Some guy named Tony Hunt was drafted just ahead of him.
The pick might not pan out if Jordan plays well in games 1-4 (fat chance),
or if Adimchinobe Echemandu somehow works his way into a starting role
(which is possible but not very likely). But when a potential RB starter
is still available at the 286th pick of the draft, I think you have to take
him. I have a feeling we're going to regret not drafting Leonard Pope,
because even a really weak TE season is still pretty good in this league. But
outside of Pope, I don't see anyone with much potential at this point.