***Week 9 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Last week I was 7-3, thanks to Detroit and Chicago deciding to put up more of a baseball score than a football score. Remind me not to take Detroit outdoors again....

I have a subplot / theme this week... see if you can figure it out:



*ONE STAR GAMES*



Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (OVER 45.5) - (1 star)

Gotta have at least one Over/Under play each week, right? That's the spirit. If Denver commits to stopping the pass (good luck) on Detroit, Kevin Jones will run it down their throats. Detroit's defense is a gambling one and they make good plays then terrible ones. Both sides get 24+ so this is a good play. Oh yeah - Detroit's on the carpet, so adding points is a must. Detroit wins this one 31-23.

Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Cleveland Browns - (1 star)

Part 1 of this theme. Seattle has D.J. Hackett back, and while everyone is loving Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards along with KW2 (which they should), the Browns don't have a defense. They'll even make Shaun Alexander look good this week, which isn't an easy task these days. Hasselbeck will throw for two scores just like Anderson, but the difference will be on the ground. Seattle's defense is much better than the Browns so in a close one (and likely a high scoring one) take the Seahawks and the point. 34-31.

**TWO STAR GAMES**

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Denver Broncos - (2 stars)

This might sound a little redundant, but....if Denver commits to stopping the pass (good luck) on Detroit, Kevin Jones will run it down their throats. Detroit's defense is a gambling one and they make good plays then terrible ones.

Ok, I'll add a little. Calvin Johnson is back. Denver gives up big pass plays (see Monday Night / "our Favre" performance). Kitna gets 3 scores. Detroit wins this one 31-23.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs - (2 stars)

Wait a minute here - I'm getting points with my of the week from last Monday? Are you serious? Do you really think that Kansas City is that much more formidable a place to play than Denver? Hasn't Green Bay discovered a running game, and found 3 viable WRs and a TE? Anyone notice that the Pack has a defense? I have..... Green Bay wins this game outright, 24-13.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. San Francisco 49ers - (2 stars)

Whee, this looks like free money to me. Want to know what Kevan Barlow is going to be for Halloween this weekend? Frank Gore. Gore's less than 100% and the San Francisco offense has been more "San Francisco Trick" than a "San Francisco Treat". The scariest part of this game is the 49er defense - ranked last against the pass.... and they'll make even Joey Harrington look good. Someone stop me before I make another terrifying Halloween pun. Take Atlanta by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals (Pick) at Buffalo Bills - (2 stars)

Even Las Vegas doesn't know what to do with this one, but I do. Vegas set the line at Buffalo (-2.5) to start the week, and the changed that line quickly, even swaying it to the Bengals laying a point in some places. Why? The Bills aren't good. Cincy's defense isn't either, but even in chilly Buffalo the Bengals can outpace the Bills. I'll take Cincy to remind everyone just why JP Losman was benched in the first place, and I'll go so far to say that the Bengals defense gets multiple turnovers and a likely "Pick 6".

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (OVER 43) - (2 stars)

What happens when two bad defenses collide? Carpal tunnel for the scoreboard operator. Both teams should break 20 points here, but even if Buffalo struggles (Marshawn Lynch has to score, as should Lee Evans) they should manage 14-17 points. Give me two teams with playmaking WRs (Evans, Housh, Chad), two good kickers (Lindell and Graham) and a Pro Bowl QB (Carson), sprinkle in a bad run defense (Cincy), bake for 60 minutes and voila, 45+ points. Dig in!

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Oakland Raiders (-3) vs. Houston Texans - (3 stars)

Here is Part 2 of my mini-theme, which is "THERE ARE TWO OTHER GAMES AT 4PM, AND NO ONE IS PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO THEM". That means the smart is on both these games, and the sucker bet of the week is the Indy / NE game. This game is the NFL's version of a solar eclipse - if you look right at it for too long you'll be blind in no time. "Blackout" works on so many levels this week, it's scary.

Here's why you should not just love the Raiders here, but hate on the Texans. If I told you that there would be an NFL team that started Sage Rosenfels, Joe Echemandu and Kevin Walters as the 3 best fantasy options for that team, would you run away screaming? I would - right into the lap of the other team's offense. Josh McCown is back, which means Oakland may actually be able to throw the ball again. LamJ or Huggy Bear, Oakland wins this game. The Raiders' defense is actually pretty good, but who cares when the other team is starting their JV squad. Oakland by 10.



:( of the Week - Oakland

Enjoy.

Oh... as for that "Super Bowl 41.5" - Just enjoy that game. No picks, no "Best Bets" - this is a opportunity and one to remind us, hopefully, why we love to watch the NFL.

All for fun. I learned my lesson the hard way nearly 30 years ago - before there was such a thing as fantasy football. I thought I was going to go slew that bookie dragon because I knew better. I could envision winning enough money to go buy a new car with cash. Let's see that was 1979. I mean afterall, besides the juice, it's 50/50 and I get to choose. What's so hard about that? Well I gambled for a few years in the late 70's to early 80's. Some weeks were a high and some weeks were a low. Some weeks you were just happy loosing the juice.

I am here to say that it is hard to pick them (even a 55% win ratio is hard to come by) and the juice ends up getting you in the long run. I remember once I lost by .5 of a point when the winning team took a knee inside the 20 instead of kicking a field goal and it cost me $750 plus the juice. So, what do we do? We have one more game on Monday night to get it back or not. After getting down so much, something like over $4,000. I bet $1000 on Phili and $1000 on the over. I won - I believe the score was something like Phili 31 - Dal 21. I was sweating bullets. I still had to sell my Jeep and make the big payoff at a Holiday Inn. I gave someone over $2,000 in cash one night. Praying to Jesus over a gambling debt is a tough way to go. Atleast I didn't have to leave the state and get a new identity or end up with cement boots in the bottom of Lake Michigan near the Mackinac Bridge.

Well, like a recovering addict, I dabbled a little about 4-5 years ago and won just over $100. My days are over. It's just not worth the stress.

The same thoughts happen in fantasy football. Perhaps these days are limited too. Can one keep it all into a healthy perspective and have a little fun

Jeff Pasquino said:

Here is Part 2 of my mini-theme, which is "THERE ARE TWO OTHER GAMES AT 4PM, AND NO ONE IS PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO THEM". That means the smart is on both these games, and the sucker bet of the week is the Indy / NE game.

Click to expand...

Why does that mean the "smart money" is on those games?

Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:

Jeff Pasquino said:

Here is Part 2 of my mini-theme, which is "THERE ARE TWO OTHER GAMES AT 4PM, AND NO ONE IS PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO THEM". That means the smart is on both these games, and the sucker bet of the week is the Indy / NE game.

Click to expand...

Why does that mean the "smart money" is on those games?

Click to expand...

What I mean here is that everyone and their brother will be watching "Super Bowl 41.5" - and where the eyeballs go, so does the big wagering. The Super Bowl is the most heavily wagered game in all of sports, just because everyone wants "in on the action". That means "amateur hour" at the gambling window.They say that you actually make more money in college football wagers than in the pros. Why? Because the "expert book makers" cannot possibly pay attention to all the intricacies of setting a line in college ball - there are too many teams to follow as regularly as the professional gamblers (and there are some) who follow just 1-2 conferences and bet exclusively on that. They are also usually lesser conferences and/or teams that don't get much TV exposure - again, less attractive to casual wagerers and also line setters.

There are three games at 4PM Eastern today - Indy/NE will get 90+% of the attention (just look a the TV coverage map for the game - only Houston and Cleveland don't get the CBS coverage). Seattle / Cleveland and Houston / Oakland will draw few eyeballs, and those games will be wagered on mostly by those who think they know more than the average person. Joe Average will focus on the Pats and Colts.

Team Smokin said:

All for fun. I learned my lesson the hard way nearly 30 years ago - before there was such a thing as fantasy football. I thought I was going to go slew that bookie dragon because I knew better. I could envision winning enough money to go buy a new car with cash. Let's see that was 1979. I mean afterall, besides the juice, it's 50/50 and I get to choose. What's so hard about that? Well I gambled for a few years in the late 70's to early 80's. Some weeks were a high and some weeks were a low. Some weeks you were just happy loosing the juice.I am here to say that it is hard to pick them (even a 55% win ratio is hard to come by) and the juice ends up getting you in the long run. I remember once I lost by .5 of a point when the winning team took a knee inside the 20 instead of kicking a field goal and it cost me $750 plus the juice. So, what do we do? We have one more game on Monday night to get it back or not. After getting down so much, something like over $4,000. I bet $1000 on Phili and $1000 on the over. I won - I believe the score was something like Phili 31 - Dal 21. I was sweating bullets. I still had to sell my Jeep and make the big payoff at a Holiday Inn. I gave someone over $2,000 in cash one night. Praying to Jesus over a gambling debt is a tough way to go. Atleast I didn't have to leave the state and get a new identity or end up with cement boots in the bottom of Lake Michigan near the Mackinac Bridge.Well, like a recovering addict, I dabbled a little about 4-5 years ago and won just over $100. My days are over. It's just not worth the stress.The same thoughts happen in fantasy football. Perhaps these days are limited too. Can one keep it all into a healthy perspective and have a little fun

Click to expand...

I tell my younger brother often how lucky he is to be growing up in a fantasy football era. He has the need for action in his blood just like all of us before him. He loves fantasy football and its only his 1st year owning his own team. He drafted RB heavy (in a PPR league and down RB year) and is having his rookie FF #### handed to him. The good news as I tell him, is his total investment... $125P.S. sorry dont want to hijack this into a GA thread.

Prior to becoming a father; I loved to bet a ton on sports. From what I found; it is extremely difficult to ever predict a "mortal lock". I can remember picking Dallas over Denver (back during their Superbowl runs) and just "knew" that was the one game that would produce over all others.....guess what....it didn't.

If you decide to gamble; I found the best strategy over the long haul is to bet all of the NFL games and for the exact same amount each game. This way you are balancing out your percentages over a longer period of time and "if" you are able to demonstrate that you are better than Vegas...you can make a "little" money (on a percentage basis). The juice puts you in the hole up front and it is an uphill battle from there.

Gamble for the fun of it and with money that can be lost; don't gamble to make money. The odds are against you. Don't spend your winnings until the season is over; you "will" have ups and downs....paying up should be easy when you take your lumps.

Just think about it; can you predict when a coin will be heads or tails....

I'll share two stories, and then we'll stop digressing into GA....

1. I once learned a lesson when I "won" when a meaningless TD was scored on the final play of the game. I covered the line and the O/U but guess what - I shouldn't have. Lesson learned.

2. Money Management is a key. Bet with your head, not over it - that's another saying but it is true.

Aside from not playing every game (notice I don't "pick" every game), I don't weigh them equally nor do I play each one.

I read this recently and it makes a lot of sense. If you have a "bankroll" of $ you can afford to lose (and that's of course the key) for the season, divide it by 4. Play with 1/4 of it, and once you've doubled it up, you can

redistribute it - or if you've lost it all.

For example, say you have 1,600 bones. Play with 400. If you earn 400 more, revisit it and now you have 2,000 bones total. Now you can play with 500.

Conversely, if you lose all 400, now you have 1,200 and can play with 300 of it.

Excellent posting JP this should be premium content

Enjoyable analysis this weekend JP. One Nugget I feel you left out were the Redskins. Gibbs angered by last weeks debacle will come into NY with some vigor I assure you. The 4 point spread would not make me blink an eye.

who do you like in Phil Dallas?

FWIW, I would love to jump all other Dallas, but cannot force myself to due to the large amount of the public on them. It's hard not to, especially coming off the bye however. I will stick to my guns and never bet alongside with the heavy public. Instead: Over 46.5.

GL to all.