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***Week 13 Picks - Part 1*** (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Last week I had a fast start, going 5-0 with Thanksgiving picks followed by a mediocre Sunday, 7-5 but still a winning day. Not up to par from the past four weeks, where I went 10-4, 9-1 (including my Stone Cold :goodposting: of the Year), then 9-6 and then 7-3. Five winning weeks and 47-19 isn't a bad streak. That's a 71% winning percentage, which is :eek: no matter how you slice it. I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week.

So - how about some picks?

Let's go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Coming Soon.

**TWO STAR GAMES**



Green Bay Packers (+7) at Dallas Cowboys - (2 stars)

Last time I checked, Green Bay was pretty good. They can score, score, and score some more - and so can their defense. To borrow some from my write-up in the FBG Staff Roundtable:



Jeff Pasquino: This is going to be a great game, and I'm looking forward to this big matchup.

Both teams are the class of the NFC and any time two teams meet this late in the year with just one loss each you have to sit up and take notice.

As for the matchups I want to see, I want to see what Dallas tries to do against Brett Favre. I'm expecting Green Bay to go with Ryan Grant as the lone back for much of the game, plus either 3 WRs and Donald Lee or 4 WRs, forcing the Cowboys to try and keep pace with the Packer passing attack. So what if Green Bay has struggled running the ball at times this year? Favre has been spectacular this year and Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones have been one of the toughest 3-WR combos to cover this season. Dallas' weakness is certainly their secondary and Ken Hamlin has been spun like a top in several games, so look for Favre to press the middle third of the secondary.

The Packers will run the ball to burn a little clock and to keep the LBs honest throughout the game, but I would not expect a huge game from Ryan Grant unless Green Bay was up big later in the game.

As for the Cowboys, look for Tony Romo to try and counter-punch to Favre's attacks on the Dallas defense and on the scoreboard. Terrell Owens and Jason Witten will see plenty of coverage from a good Green Bay defense, but Witten should be able to find some holes down the seam. Getting Patrick Crayton back helps as the crossing slant will also be a big pass option for Romo.

Julius Jones and Marion Barber have both been effective at times, but the Packers LB's are too quick for Jones to accomplish much this game. Barber, as usual, will get the bulk of the work and pound the inside when he runs and also contribute on a few screen plays. Barber, like Grant, would seem to be the most valuable guy to have on the field if Dallas is up by two or more scores in the fourth quarter as he can just wear down a defense in the waning minutes.

Overall, I expect this game to be a shoot-out and highly entertaining to watch. The surprise here is that Green Bay will win the game because the biggest mismatch is the Packers passing attack vs. the Dallas weaknesses at LB and DB. Favre and Romo both will get 300+ yards and 2+ TDs, but Dallas won't be able to keep up. The Packers defense has also been more opportunistic this season and if Favre gets a shorter field to work on, that could be the difference and it should play out that way. I expect the Packers to take the #1 seed lead in the NFC on Thursday with a 34-27 victory.
Yeah, part of me is pimping Footballguys Subscriber Content (see sig ;) ), and some of it is that I'm just that lazy. Or maybe I liked what I wrote, I'm not sure. Bottom line - you can't give a 10-1 team a touchdown and not take that, can you?

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (OVER 51) - (2 stars)

Ok, I'm lazy. 37-24, See above.



***THREE STAR GAMES***



Coming Soon.



:IBTL: of the Week - Coming Soon.

***SUCKER BET GAME***



Coming Soon.



Enjoy.

 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
You should advise whether or not that is a good money line to play.
 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
You should advise whether or not that is a good money line to play.
Thanks for telling me what I should do.... :rolleyes: Since I have Green Bay at 2 stars, I would say that the safer play would be to split your "star power" and do both. Put a little over half of it (say 60%) on Green Bay at +7 and then the other 40% on the straight-up win / money line.That way you still win something if they cover, but you win much more if they win outright.If it was a "3 star game" I would feel more confident about going straight to the money line. I think Dallas has a chance to win but not cover, so I'd hate to lose the +7 option.
 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
You should advise whether or not that is a good money line to play.
Thanks for telling me what I should do.... :rolleyes: Since I have Green Bay at 2 stars, I would say that the safer play would be to split your "star power" and do both. Put a little over half of it (say 60%) on Green Bay at +7 and then the other 40% on the straight-up win / money line.That way you still win something if they cover, but you win much more if they win outright.If it was a "3 star game" I would feel more confident about going straight to the money line. I think Dallas has a chance to win but not cover, so I'd hate to lose the +7 option.
Relax with the rolleyes guy. Are you that uptight over merely a suggestion?In YOUR gambling advice thread, I would think you could at least inform the lad as to whether or not +250 was good value. Well, is it?
 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
You should advise whether or not that is a good money line to play.
Thanks for telling me what I should do.... :thumbdown: Since I have Green Bay at 2 stars, I would say that the safer play would be to split your "star power" and do both. Put a little over half of it (say 60%) on Green Bay at +7 and then the other 40% on the straight-up win / money line.That way you still win something if they cover, but you win much more if they win outright.If it was a "3 star game" I would feel more confident about going straight to the money line. I think Dallas has a chance to win but not cover, so I'd hate to lose the +7 option.
Relax with the rolleyes guy. Are you that uptight over merely a suggestion?In YOUR gambling advice thread, I would think you could at least inform the lad as to whether or not +250 was good value. Well, is it?
Perhaps you should relax - or at least reconsider whether you should tell me what to do next time. I don't speak towards every game and I make that clear each week. Each proposition bet is also part of that statement.Just because I like a team doesn't mean I like them to win outright or the Over/Under for the game either.I believe I've answered both his and your questions to this point. Or are your comments just because I'm posting my own picks in my own thread?
 
hey jeff would you recommend betting the money line over the spread on this game?
Hmm...Well, I did say Green Bay would win....Either Pack +7 or Green Bay +250 for the win.... 5 to 2 odds is rather attractive, isn't it?I'll let you make that call though. Dallas is a very good team and can win the game and you'd still get the +7, but 5:2 is tempting.
You should advise whether or not that is a good money line to play.
Thanks for telling me what I should do.... :rolleyes: Since I have Green Bay at 2 stars, I would say that the safer play would be to split your "star power" and do both. Put a little over half of it (say 60%) on Green Bay at +7 and then the other 40% on the straight-up win / money line.That way you still win something if they cover, but you win much more if they win outright.If it was a "3 star game" I would feel more confident about going straight to the money line. I think Dallas has a chance to win but not cover, so I'd hate to lose the +7 option.
Relax with the rolleyes guy. Are you that uptight over merely a suggestion?In YOUR gambling advice thread, I would think you could at least inform the lad as to whether or not +250 was good value. Well, is it?
Perhaps you should relax - or at least reconsider whether you should tell me what to do next time.
:lmao: And why should I reconsider making a SUGGESTION?
 
I initially liked the over today JP, but it seems as if the heavy public is pounding that line. Anytime I see ~70%+ on one side, a red flag goes up....however you seem pretty confident still. Just out of curiousity, do you ever take this into account when picking games? Thanks man. Good writeup again, like usual. :wall:

 
I initially liked the over today JP, but it seems as if the heavy public is pounding that line. Anytime I see ~70%+ on one side, a red flag goes up....however you seem pretty confident still. Just out of curiousity, do you ever take this into account when picking games? Thanks man. Good writeup again, like usual. :fishing:
:lmao: I still like it. I try not to let John Q. Public influence me and just analyze the game. Seems simpler that way. I figure what should happen and the most likely outcome. Injuries, penalties, turnovers - can't predict everything, but overall I see 24+ for both sides.
 

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