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***I'm calling it now: JAX beats NE in playoffs (1 Viewer)

enfuego

enfuego

Footballguy
I'm no fan of Jacksonville. In fact, I can't stand Del Rio and Co. But, they match-up vs New England better than any other AFC team:

Strong D
Good running game
Efficient Q
Smart coachingI see Jax beating NE in the divisional playoffs. :unsure:

NE fans are sadly mistaken if they believe the Pats are going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a Superbowl title.

 
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Ghost Rider said:
I seriously doubt that many Patriots fans think that getting through the AFC playoffs will be a cakewalk.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I'm a huge Pats homer and I'd give em a 65-70% chance of making it to the Superbowl at this point. Hardly a cakewalk. That said... these sorts of theads have surfaced for the Cowboys, Indy, Steelers games (among others). They all have one thing in common.... they were wrong.
 
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[icon] said:
Ghost Rider said:
I seriously doubt that many Patriots fans think that getting through the AFC playoffs will be a cakewalk.
Click to expand...
:confused: I'm a huge Pats homer and I'd give em a 65-70% chance of making it to the Superbowl at this point. Hardly a cakewalk. That said... these sorts of theads have surfaced for the Cowboys, Indy, Steelers games (among others). They all have one thing in common.... they were wrong.
Click to expand...
2nd Sunday in January... :shrug:
 
enfuego said:
[icon] said:
Ghost Rider said:
I seriously doubt that many Patriots fans think that getting through the AFC playoffs will be a cakewalk.
Click to expand...
:sadbanana: I'm a huge Pats homer and I'd give em a 65-70% chance of making it to the Superbowl at this point. Hardly a cakewalk. That said... these sorts of theads have surfaced for the Cowboys, Indy, Steelers games (among others). They all have one thing in common.... they were wrong.
Click to expand...
2nd Sunday in January... :shrug:
Click to expand...
Care to put some money on it? :whistle:I know a couple mods that will provide escrow. :thumbup:
 
enfuego said:
I'm no fan of Jacksonville. In fact, I can't stand Del Rio and Co. But, they match-up vs New England better than any other AFC team:

Strong D
Good running game
Efficient Q
Smart coachingI see Jax beating NE in the divisional playoffs. :rolleyes:

NE fans are sadly mistaken if they believe the Pats are going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a Superbowl title.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how this makes them a better matchup than the Colts who might have a slightly less strong running game but also an outstanding QB and WRs (assuming Marvin gets healthy someday).
 
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.

 
[icon] said:
enfuego said:
[icon] said:
Ghost Rider said:
I seriously doubt that many Patriots fans think that getting through the AFC playoffs will be a cakewalk.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I'm a huge Pats homer and I'd give em a 65-70% chance of making it to the Superbowl at this point. Hardly a cakewalk. That said... these sorts of theads have surfaced for the Cowboys, Indy, Steelers games (among others). They all have one thing in common.... they were wrong.
Click to expand...
2nd Sunday in January... :hot:
Click to expand...
Care to put some money on it? :rolleyes:I know a couple mods that will provide escrow. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Odds, please?
 
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
 
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
 
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...
normally i would agree with you, but not with the Pats. They are far better than any team in the NFL this year. I know I will be bashed for this but itruly belive there is very very little chance (5%) that the Pats dont make it to the Superbowl. The Pats will only have to win 2 games. In light of what we've witnessed this year, you'd be lying if you said you didnt think the odds were overwhelmingly in the Pats favor to make the SB.
 
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...
normally i would agree with you, but not with the Pats. They are far better than any team in the NFL this year. I know I will be bashed for this but itruly belive there is very very little chance (5%) that the Pats dont make it to the Superbowl. The Pats will only have to win 2 games. In light of what we've witnessed this year, you'd be lying if you said you didnt think the odds were overwhelmingly in the Pats favor to make the SB.
Click to expand...
I won't lie to you that the Pats are no doubt the favorite in my mind to make the superbowl and to win it. However, they aren't exactly flawless. They're a great team because they find ways to win but they are vulnerable in certain areas. They were taken to the limit by a few teams this year (including one they may very well face in the AFC championship). They will likely have to face another team that could match up well with them in the divisional round (the Jags). I would hardly give the Jags or Colts a combined 5% chance of winning the game. But hey...if you truly believe the odds are 95%, shouldn't you be heading to Vegas right now to bet the farm? I'm sure you'll be getting incredible odds.
 
Why not? The Jags still have to get past Pittsburgh or San Diego, but if they do, I'm with you all the way! Don't let these naysayers give you any problems. Do you think if New England does lose any one of these guys will revisit this?

The playoffs are one and done. Anything can happen. If it was a seven game series, I'd say nearly impossible to get by New England. The Patriots are by far the best team this year, and perhaps the best team ever. But they're not supermen. So I say, roll the dice, and if these two teams meet, the Jags will win.

I'm pretty sure that I will pick against New England whoever they play. Why the heck not? If I'm wrong, who really cares?

I think Miami beats the Patriots this week!

 
timschochet said:
Why not? The Jags still have to get past Pittsburgh or San Diego, but if they do, I'm with you all the way! Don't let these naysayers give you any problems. Do you think if New England does lose any one of these guys will revisit this?The playoffs are one and done. Anything can happen. If it was a seven game series, I'd say nearly impossible to get by New England. The Patriots are by far the best team this year, and perhaps the best team ever. But they're not supermen. So I say, roll the dice, and if these two teams meet, the Jags will win.I'm pretty sure that I will pick against New England whoever they play. Why the heck not? If I'm wrong, who really cares?I think Miami beats the Patriots this week!
Click to expand...
Does this mean you're gonna say "I called it" if the Phins win this weekend? :hophead:
 
I think a Jax-NE divisional round game is in the cards.

Jax has a solid grip on the #5 seed, which means they will probably play the AFC North champ in the Wild Card round. Clearly, they've shown they can win in Pittsburgh because they just dominated the Steelers and won by a TD in a game that wasn't nearly that close. The other AFC Wild Card game would be San Diego vs. the AFC North runner-up, probably Cleveland. If San Diego wins that game, then the divisional round would be:

Jax @ NE

SD@ Indy

What a couple of great games.

 
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...
normally i would agree with you, but not with the Pats. They are far better than any team in the NFL this year. I know I will be bashed for this but itruly belive there is very very little chance (5%) that the Pats dont make it to the Superbowl. The Pats will only have to win 2 games. In light of what we've witnessed this year, you'd be lying if you said you didnt think the odds were overwhelmingly in the Pats favor to make the SB.
Click to expand...
I won't lie to you that the Pats are no doubt the favorite in my mind to make the superbowl and to win it. However, they aren't exactly flawless. They're a great team because they find ways to win but they are vulnerable in certain areas. They were taken to the limit by a few teams this year (including one they may very well face in the AFC championship). They will likely have to face another team that could match up well with them in the divisional round (the Jags). I would hardly give the Jags or Colts a combined 5% chance of winning the game. But hey...if you truly believe the odds are 95%, shouldn't you be heading to Vegas right now to bet the farm? I'm sure you'll be getting incredible odds.
Click to expand...
ya they have flaws, i agree. what do you think there chances of making the superbowl are? If you had to put a percentage on it? 40%, 50%, 60%....To me, it just seems that the pat odds of winning two games are far greater than that, but what do i know.
 
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I love it when these things pop up. Here's another one. We all know how this one turned out.

Officially been Punched

And those guys were playing at home with more than a couple of Pro Bowlers.

 
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fred_1_15301 said:
timschochet said:
Why not? The Jags still have to get past Pittsburgh or San Diego, but if they do, I'm with you all the way! Don't let these naysayers give you any problems. Do you think if New England does lose any one of these guys will revisit this?The playoffs are one and done. Anything can happen. If it was a seven game series, I'd say nearly impossible to get by New England. The Patriots are by far the best team this year, and perhaps the best team ever. But they're not supermen. So I say, roll the dice, and if these two teams meet, the Jags will win.I'm pretty sure that I will pick against New England whoever they play. Why the heck not? If I'm wrong, who really cares?I think Miami beats the Patriots this week!
Click to expand...
Does this mean you're gonna say "I called it" if the Phins win this weekend? :stalker:
Click to expand...
Yep! If they win, I take full credit! If they lose, you won't hear from me. How's that?At least I'm honest about it. Most of the so-called "prognosticators" roll with the favorite every time, and those that predict an upset usually do so only to draw attention to themselves, and then crow if they're right, and are silent when they're wrong. What's the odds of Miami winning this weekend- ten percent? That's better than playing the lotter, which I've done from time to time. So- my prediction is Dolphins 51, New England 3. You heard it here first! (For those who offer, I don't gamble money though- only goodwill.)
 
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thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...
normally i would agree with you, but not with the Pats. They are far better than any team in the NFL this year. I know I will be bashed for this but itruly belive there is very very little chance (5%) that the Pats dont make it to the Superbowl. The Pats will only have to win 2 games. In light of what we've witnessed this year, you'd be lying if you said you didnt think the odds were overwhelmingly in the Pats favor to make the SB.
Click to expand...
Gonna have to respectfully disagree. Odds IMO look more like:Beat Miami 86% chanceBeat Giants 78% chanceBeat winner of Steelers / Jags rematch 83%Beat winner of Colts / Chargers rematch 55%Beat winner of Packers / Boys rematch (Packers) 64%Pats have a 20% chance of a perfect run to the ring, or a 30% chance of winning the ring regardless of remaining regular season.
 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
fred_1_15301 said:
thehornet said:
it certainly will not be easy for the Pats, but i would give them a 5% chance of NOT being in the superbowl.
Click to expand...
By your ridiculous probability, wouldn't that by definition make it "easy" for the Pats?
Click to expand...
Actually no. Just because something is difficult doesnt mean i think the odds are any less.Why is it so rediculous for me to believe that the Pats have a 95% chance of making the superbowl?
Click to expand...
Applying a 95% probability to most anything is ridiculous. Applying it to the NFL where there really isn't that much disparity between the top teams is beyond ridiculous.
Click to expand...
normally i would agree with you, but not with the Pats. They are far better than any team in the NFL this year. I know I will be bashed for this but itruly belive there is very very little chance (5%) that the Pats dont make it to the Superbowl. The Pats will only have to win 2 games. In light of what we've witnessed this year, you'd be lying if you said you didnt think the odds were overwhelmingly in the Pats favor to make the SB.
Click to expand...
Gonna have to respectfully disagree. Odds IMO look more like:Beat Miami 86% chanceBeat Giants 78% chanceBeat winner of Steelers / Jags rematch 83%Beat winner of Colts / Chargers rematch 55%Beat winner of Packers / Boys rematch (Packers) 64%Pats have a 20% chance of a perfect run to the ring, or a 30% chance of winning the ring regardless of remaining regular season.
Click to expand...
I've got a problem with this. I understand how you did the math, and I can't argue with your conclusion about any game, but it seems that New England should have a better than 30% chance of winning the Superbowl, doesn't it? How is this reconciled?
 
timschochet said:
Why not? The Jags still have to get past Pittsburgh or San Diego, but if they do, I'm with you all the way! Don't let these naysayers give you any problems. Do you think if New England does lose any one of these guys will revisit this?

The playoffs are one and done. Anything can happen. If it was a seven game series, I'd say nearly impossible to get by New England. The Patriots are by far the best team this year, and perhaps the best team ever. But they're not supermen. So I say, roll the dice, and if these two teams meet, the Jags will win.

I'm pretty sure that I will pick against New England whoever they play. Why the heck not? If I'm wrong, who really cares?

I think Miami beats the Patriots this week!
Click to expand...
Stop it already with this best team ever malarkey........in today's watered-down NFL, there are only like 3, maybe 4 good teams and 2 of them are very good teams (Pats and Colts). Even the very good teams of today lack one very critical thing that many of the greatest teams of all-time had......depth........So teams like the Montana-led, and even the Young-SuperBowlSeason 49ers, '85 Bears, early 90's Cowboys, and Steel Curtain era Steelers, heck, even the Raiders of the 70s who couldn't get past the Steelers other than in '76, would all bust this NE team's chops..........I agree with the original poster, this NE team is very good, but has some very (glaring) weaknesses.......the physicality of a team like Jax could really give them major problems....'cause 1 thing is almost certain (I'd say 95% certain....... :kicksrock: )....the weather will not be great in mid-January in Foxboro........

I remember when everyone was already crowning NE after their 1st Super Bowl title....if u wanna crown their ###$$$es, go ahead, but they are who we thought they were......back to my point......and the Raiders rolled in to Foxboro given very little chance, and clearly outplayed them all the way up until "The *uck"........so I'm personally not buying them as a cinch to win it all........I give Jax or S.D., particularly Jax, if either has to come to Foxboro, a very decent shot at winning.......

 
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I'm calling it right now...Kelly Pavlik will knock out Jermain Taylor...oh wait, that longshot did happen.

Everyone has been waiting for Jax to have a big time win on the road against a top team. Beating Pittsburgh this year does not count, Jax should have been favored.

If they play, NE will win by double digits.

 
kremenull said:
......and the Raiders rolled in to Foxboro given very little chance, and clearly outplayed them all the way up until "The *uck"........so I'm personally not buying them as a cinch to win it all........
Click to expand...
:wall:Yes clearly this has a bearing on the playoffs this season.GET OVER IT.
 
I'm a Pats fan, and I disagree that Jax matches up well. In fact, IMO, they are the most favorable matchup the Pats could get. Jax is a classic team that needs a lead vs. NE to keep it close. I haven't looked it up, but I could probably count on one hand the number of quarters the Pats have trailed. If not, it's close.

If the Pats go up a quick two scores, the game is over.

Conversely, the team I don't want NE to face is the Browns. Crennel actually did a much better job than people think vs. NE. If not for a flukely last second D score, the Pats only win that game by 10.

While Romeo doesn't have the horses on D, he has the brain, and was only one of 2-3 DCs to shut down Moss this year. If he can replicate that game plan, and get some bounces on O, Browns could pull off Upset of the Century.

 
timschochet said:
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Gonna have to respectfully disagree. Odds IMO look more like:Beat Miami 86% chanceBeat Giants 78% chanceBeat winner of Steelers / Jags rematch 83%Beat winner of Colts / Chargers rematch 55%Beat winner of Packers / Boys rematch (Packers) 64%Pats have a 20% chance of a perfect run to the ring, or a 30% chance of winning the ring regardless of remaining regular season.
Click to expand...
I've got a problem with this. I understand how you did the math, and I can't argue with your conclusion about any game, but it seems that New England should have a better than 30% chance of winning the Superbowl, doesn't it? How is this reconciled?
Click to expand...
I understand your perception. This is exactly the basis of oddsmakers setting lines in wagering. Perception convinces you that the probability of a string of events is as high as that of a single event. Concentrate. 0.8 x 0.8 is not as large as 0.8. To put it another way, if you believe my 0.83, 0.55 and 0.64 above, then you HAVE to believe the 30% playoff probability despite what your perception tells you.
 
twitch said:
I love it when these things pop up. Here's another one. We all know how this one turned out.

Officially been Punched

And those guys were playing at home with more than a couple of Pro Bowlers.
Click to expand...
You know what's laughable? Cocky Pats fans that come out of the woodwork when they have a winning streak (now go ahead & deny it).
 
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Regardless of what happened this past weekend, I've got my doubts on a Florida team winning up north in January. Remember 28-3 a couple years back? The Dolphins could never win in Buffalo back in the day. Yes, the Bucs did steal one in Philly, but IIRC, they lost two of three (and they weren't close) before that. Florida teams up north just don't fare well. (The Jags also lost to the Jets on the road in the playoffs, too.)

 
candy bar said:
Regardless of what happened this past weekend, I've got my doubts on a Florida team winning up north in January. Remember 28-3 a couple years back? The Dolphins could never win in Buffalo back in the day. Yes, the Bucs did steal one in Philly, but IIRC, they lost two of three (and they weren't close) before that. Florida teams up north just don't fare well. (The Jags also lost to the Jets on the road in the playoffs, too.)
Click to expand...
Does it somehow get colder in January than December or is the weather worse in Foxboro than Heinz field?
 
enfuego said:
candy bar said:
Regardless of what happened this past weekend, I've got my doubts on a Florida team winning up north in January. Remember 28-3 a couple years back? The Dolphins could never win in Buffalo back in the day. Yes, the Bucs did steal one in Philly, but IIRC, they lost two of three (and they weren't close) before that. Florida teams up north just don't fare well. (The Jags also lost to the Jets on the road in the playoffs, too.)
Click to expand...
Does it somehow get colder in January than December or is the weather worse in Foxboro than Heinz field?
Click to expand...
Yes, it's colder in January than December.Yes, the weather is worse in Foxboro than Heinz Field.

And check the bolded part.

 
I dont think they have a chance. I saw what they did last time they went there in the playoffs. It was VERY ugly. They just dont match up. Pitt or SD would be a better game

 
Drew Brees threw for over 400 yards against the Jaguars. Tom Brady would get at least 300 against them. I don't think the Jaguars stand much of a chance against the Patriots. They can't even beat the Colts and they're supposed to beat the Patriots?

 
As I said in the other Jags/Pats thread - the Jags don't have the secondary to beat the Pats unless the conditions are VERY windy that day.

 
FLA teams are 2-8 in the playoffs against NE teams (BUF, NE, NYJ, PHI).

FLA teams are 2-4 against other cold weather teams in the playoffs (PIT/GB/DEN), with the '72 Dolphins and the '96 Jaguars owning those team victories.

 
candy bar said:
enfuego said:
candy bar said:
Regardless of what happened this past weekend, I've got my doubts on a Florida team winning up north in January. Remember 28-3 a couple years back? The Dolphins could never win in Buffalo back in the day. Yes, the Bucs did steal one in Philly, but IIRC, they lost two of three (and they weren't close) before that. Florida teams up north just don't fare well. (The Jags also lost to the Jets on the road in the playoffs, too.)
Click to expand...
Does it somehow get colder in January than December or is the weather worse in Foxboro than Heinz field?
Click to expand...
Yes, it's colder in January than December. correctYes, the weather is worse in Foxboro than Heinz Field. incorrect



And check the bolded part. explain your reasoning
Click to expand...
see above
 
The Man with the Plan said:
Drew Brees threw for over 400 yards against the Jaguars. Tom Brady would get at least 300 against them. I don't think the Jaguars stand much of a chance against the Patriots. They can't even beat the Colts and they're supposed to beat the Patriots?
Click to expand...
I need to stop trying explain the most simple things to members numbered 27000+ ... :mellow:
 
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enfuego said:
twitch said:
I love it when these things pop up. Here's another one. We all know how this one turned out.

Officially been Punched

And those guys were playing at home with more than a couple of Pro Bowlers.
Click to expand...
You know what's laughable? Cocky Pats fans that come out of the woodwork when they have a winning streak (now go ahead & deny it).
Click to expand...
Then have a good laugh. Although the word "laugh" was clearly nowhere in my post, but you dont see any NE fans drumming up, "The Pats are gonna beat team 'x, y or z' " threads any week around here. And like I said, its always some team that NE has yet to deal with thats the gonna be the giant killer. But what other 14 game winning streaks have their been by any team in recent memory? Besides the Pats winning 21 in a row a few years ago. During a run in which they won 3 Superbowls. Woodwork? That's funny stuff to a 30year Pats fan. But if youre gonna jump in here and guarantee a win by a team that NE thumped just 2 years ago in the playoffs 28-3, a year in which they lost 6 games, then you can basically expect to get laughed at.
 
enfuego said:
I'm no fan of Jacksonville. In fact, I can't stand Del Rio and Co. But, they match-up vs New England better than any other AFC team:

Strong D
Good running game
Efficient Q
Smart coachingI see Jax beating NE in the divisional playoffs. :mellow:

NE fans are sadly mistaken if they believe the Pats are going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a Superbowl title.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that's cute and all, but don't kid yourself. The Pats win that game by 28, easy. The Colts on the other hand, I'm not looking forward to facing again.

 
enfuego said:
I'm no fan of Jacksonville. In fact, I can't stand Del Rio and Co. But, they match-up vs New England better than any other AFC team:

Strong D
Good running game
Efficient Q
Smart coachingI see Jax beating NE in the divisional playoffs. :popcorn:

NE fans are sadly mistaken if they believe the Pats are going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a Superbowl title.
Click to expand...
enfuego said:
[icon] said:
enfuego said:
[icon] said:
Ghost Rider said:
I seriously doubt that many Patriots fans think that getting through the AFC playoffs will be a cakewalk.
Click to expand...
these sorts of theads have surfaced for the Cowboys, Indy, Steelers games (among others). They all have one thing in common.... they were wrong.
Click to expand...
2nd Sunday in January... :unsure:
Click to expand...
Care to put some money on it? :whistle: I know a couple mods that will provide escrow. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Odds, please?
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
 
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