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I could have just bolded everything I guess, all good points. I just don't see anyone who stands out to me right now, the wideouts are a flip a coin type deal in my eyes (of course where they go makes a big difference for wide outs imo, at least right away) and the same can be said for the qb's. And the running backs after mccfadden remind me of the running backs after lynch and AD, I didnt even want to draft any of them.
Stewart, Mendenhall, and Charles are all 3 better then Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, and Brandon Jackson...
Mozzy,F&L has said in the past he's not as deep into the college game as a lot of others around here (Colin, EBF, Andy Dufresne, Chaos Commish, etc.) so he generally defers to them on such matters.
Also, at QB you've got the top 3 in Brohm, Ryan and Woodson with some people liking one better than others but all at a high level of talent. Then you've got a second tier with Ainge, Brennan, Henne and possibly one or two more who have enough talent to start in the NFL some day depending on the situation they land in.
It's just a matter of preference. He's old, Leinart is the purported starter, and his window for value may already be closed after Week 17 of this year. I'll grant you all of that. However, we know that he can be difference maker whenever he's in the lineup. He threw almost 30 TDs this season in about 12 and a half games this year. I believe Matt Leinart will bounce back, but if he struggles in the pre-season it's going to be worth having Kurt Warner on your roster. When I rank players I ask myself whether I would rather have that player than any of the guys ranked below him. With Warner's upside, there's nobody below him that I would rather have on my roster going into next season. I could see an argument for Campbell because he's had his moments in his young career, and he has a lot of vocal backers on his team and in dynasty leagues. I just don't see him ever being a difference maker in fantasy football, and I'm absolutely positive Todd Collins runs that offense better than Campbell does. If Collins leads the Redskins on a deep run through the playoffs, it will be interesting to see what the Redskins do at QB going into next season.
CP is right. I don't follow the college game as much, so thanks for the above link, and I'm glad Colin jumped in. Hopefully, EBF and a few other draft/prospect mavens will weigh in. I've read some of EBF's stuff on the RB class, and he seems to have a good handle on it.
Just wanted to bump this while compiling the master theory list.Yes, being kind of a tool, but for as much as KH calls people out, people could stand to see this.Why do 1st yr Rookies always get ranked higher than 2nd yr studs that are on great teamsI see it every ####ing year and it makes me laugh
I think it will end up being a pretty good group when all is said and done. QBsmozzy84 said:
You can say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one. http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/conten...NFL&id=3770
I can't imagine how much money I would wager on there being exactly 0 bidders for Mike Bell on the trading marker. Someone giving up a draft pick for him would be incomprehensible.
I believe I read he declared. I believe he'll be in the mix in Round 1 or early-to-mid Round 2 based on how he tests. With his size, could be an immediate RZ factor. I think the hardest WR to grade is Manningham. Drops far too many passes and seems to be a headcase (already), but has great physical gifts.And with that said, his QB (Henne) could be the QB surprise of the draft down the line. JMO I'd much rather take Henne after Round 1 (at this point, hard to tell how far beyond he'll end up going) than any of the other 3 in Round 1.
What does this mean:
I'm guessing you choose from preset line-ups each week..?
You choose only from the players on your own roster for each week of the playoffs. If a player in your Week 1 starting lineup loses, then you lose that position for the rest of the playoffs. For example, that's why I can't gamble on starting Todd Collins when I have Tom Brady ready to plug in for Week 2. If the Redskins lose, I forfeit QB for the rest of the playoffs. But I have decided to gamble on starting Hines Ward, Joey Galloway, Chris Cooley & Jerramy Stevens in Week 1 with Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, Terry Glenn and Ben Watson all possibilities to plug in Week 2. If the gamble pays off, I can keep Cooley or Ward in my lineup and replace the other three guys with my three Patriots for Round Two. If the gamble doesn't pay off, I lose two or three guys and have to keep most of my Patriots receivers on the bench in Week 2...but it's not like I have Randy Moss sitting there, so it's not worth holding those Week One guys out.
Thanks. If anybody went to the blog within the last hour or so, and the "off-season RB landscape" post was missing, I apologize. I went into the article to add a feature that would list all available free agents and likely cuts, and I think I nodded off for a few minutes after a long day...apparently, I hit a "save to drafts" button which took it off the front page and put into my drafts file. Whoops. Sorry about that. It's back up now.crnerblitz,I don't know that Hunt has any more value than the rest of those "hope & prayer" stashes that barely saw the field this year. I drafted him last year as a handcuff to Westbrook, but I ended up dropping him half-way through the year when it became obvious that Buckhalter was going to remain the backup. I think his value is years down the road, and he's worth a lot more in leagues with huge rosters. I'm not sure what his ceiling is, but I don't think it's close to top tier. I have him pegged as a guy who won't get his shot for awhile and may end up as more of a role player if he ever does get a shot.
Pretty cool. There's no way you make most of those trades in a different format. I applaud you and your league for being unique.
Thanks. You're right that there's no way I make most of those trades in a normal format. One of the great benefits of this type of league is that helps out the lesser owners who really need the help and adds some needed parity. As a general rule, the non-playoff teams can get higher draft picks and younger talent for mediocre veterans on good playoff teams. My way around that is to consider my nucleus (Brady, S-Jax, Westbrook, Fitzgerald) and try to never touch those players even for playoff upgrades. I always deal draft picks and good-though-not-great young players for the chips I need. It forces me to be a little more creative because some owners have a nucleus full of playoff players whereas S-Jax and Fitzgerald are never there.As you can tell, I really enjoy the format....and I really wish it would catch on in more dynasty leagues because there's considerably more strategy, less luck, and it keeps things going through the NFL playoffs.
I have been reading allot of chatter this past week about Vince Young. Seems many are ready to jump ship, while others offer up the 'just give him one more year' line. I happen to have VY as my QB2 in a dynasty league, and based on the SSOG model discussed above, I'm starting to think we are now in the 'sell FAST before the bottom drops out' phase. I know we can all come up with allot of excuses, myself included, like if he just had some more weapons, etc.... But what good is a rule (like SSOG's) if you don't follow it, and try and rationalize yourself out of the wisdom it provides?VY has played 15 games in each of the last two season, finishing 12th in FBG scoring in 2006, and 17th in 2007. So, were at that 30 game region, with no top 10 finishes. My thinking is some owners out there are still willing to give reasonable value to VY, and are willing to give him that extra year or two.
Here's the difference between Young and why this rule may not necessarily apply. If you're banking on him being your #1 QB, then you definitely have to move him for some value (although it's definitely not at its highest now) or work on acquiring a true #1. As a #2, backup, he is perfect to keep bc he is someone that has the potential to go against this rule. First of all, that other thread is dealing more in terms of Young as a successful NFL QB, not FANTASY QB. So the reasons that are being listed there such as "give him one more year" and "get him more weapons" are probably more related to his success as a Tenn Titan and not as your fantasy starter. In terms of fantasy production, he is probably unlikely to ever reach that elite status. But the reason you don't necessarily have to "sell fast" on him is that:
Thanks, Gandalf. Appreciate the feedback. I don't plan on ever shutting it down, and I know that regular contributors here like SSOG, EBF, gianmarco and plenty of others have become just as important as the rankings ever were themselves. One of the reasons I was OK with moving the rankings to the blog was that the strategy discussions and player evaluations have carried the thread for some time. Thanks to the_sig too for the complement on the blog. I plan on adding to that "state of the RBs" feature on the blog throughout the off-season, so it should be up-to-date on a regular basis. I might as well make that one its own category over on the sidebar, so it's easy to find in the future. I'll probably add a similar feature on QBs and WRs when I get time.
Outstanding post.
F&L, thanks for the additional comments on VY. You and gianmarco make some compelling points. Lots of food for thought here....Outstanding post.
I haven't been keeping up with that Vince Young thread, but I have covered the Titans quite a few times this year, and I know I've posted several times throughout this thread discussing VY.
I don't have much to add to gianmarco's post b/c he nailed the most relevant points. But I will repeat one point I've mentioned several times and add another point from this morning's news:
1] There was a month-long window where I covered the Titans every Sunday, and I've never seen a QB lose as many passing TDs as Young did over that month long period. Between holding penalties that called back TDs and receivers either dropping passes or running the wrong route, VY could have had at least 7-9 more passing TDs just in that four game window. I realize you could point to similar situations for many QBs around the league, but I've never seen it snowball on a QB like it did with Young in that string of games. He could have easily notched 10 more TDs this season even with a rag-tag bunch of receiving options. I think VY was much better than his numbers indicate.
2] I did the morning news for rotoworld today and came across an article where Jeff Fischer declared his faith in VY and promised to address the lack of offensive weapons this off-season. Young is not an above-average passer right now, but he's also dealing with WRs who struggle to get separation and generally don't add any playmaking ability whatsoever. It's tough to compare his numbers to top tier QBs when they're throwing to Randy Moss, T.O., Chad Johnson/Housh, Colston, and Holmes/Ward.
I mean VY is basically throwing to Brady's receivers from last season if you think about it. The Titans aren't going to bring in Randy Moss, but they do plan to actively pursue playmakers. VY is no Tom Brady, but I think there's nowhere to go but up for him.
Here's the thing, though. He pretty much did make the top 10 in his rookie year. He finished #12 but he did not start the entire season. I'm not sure about your scoring system or what you're using, but I would look at his PPG ranking for last year and see if he falls in the top 10. If he does, there you go. He saw very limited action in game 1 of 2006, came in after the rout was on in game 2 but did get some stats to contribute to his final #'s, and didn't play at all in game 3. So he essentially finished #12 with only 14 games played. Factor that in, and I bet he's top 10.In your situation, with Brees ahead of him, I doubt I would move him unless I got extremely good value. That's a great QB situation to have and one you probably won't have to address for quite a while.
I don't usually go for the kind of statistical arguments SSOG makes, but this one looks to be a good one to me. As far as VY being an exception, the only point in his favor is that he is a running QB and that if he runs more in the future he could get back to his rookie performance, but even that wasn't enough to get him top 10 production and we all know running QBs have a higher injury likelihood. He may crack the top 10 in his career, but as far as being an elite QB who will really help your fantasy team, I don't see it and I agree that this is the time to unload him if you can a good deal like a first round rookie pick. I would deal him for Derek Anderson in a second--and note--DA has already matched SSOG's requirement in his first year as a starter.
Again, in my league scoring, VY was 9th in PPG in 2006 (since he didn't play 2 games in the year). And that was in a league with bonus scoring for 300 yd passing games, something that HURTS VY. In another league where all TDs are 6 pts (again, hurts VY since he his rushing TDs are worth more in leagues where passing TDs are 4 pts), he was 11th in total pts and 8th when adjusted for the 2 games he missed. Using those requirements, he HAS matched SSOG's requirement just as much as DA has. Or am I missing something that is excluding VY from making it?
I typically don't go for the 'extrapolate ppg to a whole season' type of argument, but admittedly I was only only using the year end ranking based on FBG scoring. I checked in my actual league, and in 2006 VY came in as QB10 with NO adjustments, or would have been QB7 based on replacing his missed game and WK1 with his yearly ppg.
That was lazy on my part for just looking at FBG scoring as opposed to my own leagues system. Thanks for the reality check gianmarco
That's pretty much where I'm at right now. I put Gore up in that neighborhood too, but it's pretty obvious that MJD is a special talent.For every time that I tell myself he's still only a part-time player, I also have to tell myself that Pocket Hercules amazingly averages a TD per game with those limited touches.
Thanks, greeklightnin.Brandon Jacobs is a lot more dynamic and I think a lot more talented. When he's healthy, I would feel comfortable starting him every week. The advantages he has over White in addition to the aforementioned are: better chance for a monster game, better chance for a monster season, better chance for receiving yards, better chance for a TD, not reliant upon the defense or the coaching staff. I agree that Jacobs is an injury concern, but I'm not sure about the Fred Taylor comparison. Freddie got the unfortunate nickname, but he really wasn't all that fragile in his career. I'm OK with Jacobs as a risk/reward guy.We've covered LenDale quite a bit before, and my opinion hasn't really changed much at all. I had him as a great buy low entering the season, and I thought he was the quintessential sell high after he reeled off three straight 100-yard games mid-way through the season. He's not dynamic enough, he needs 22-25 carries to put up decent points, he's generally not going to get you passing yardage or receptions, and he's extremely reliant on his defense shutting down the other team's offense to garner consistent carries. He was dogpoo when Haynesworth was out of the lineup. I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him because it's tough to tell how well the Titans are going to do each week. And that's really the bottom line for me: I don't want LenDale White anywhere near my starting lineup.Oh, and when you consider their respective YPC's, you could certainly make the argument that I have White too high and Jacobs too low:Jacobs 2007: 5.0 ypcWhite 2007: 3.6 ypc
Vince Young is a hold, in my mind. His PPG numbers in his first season as a starter qualify for the top 10, and his upside is incredibly sexy. In most scoring systems, Young could only pass for 2800 yards and rush for 600, and he'd be as valuable as a 4,000 yard passer. I feel like mobile QBs just have such an obscene advantage in fantasy football that I'm willing to take a lot more risks, even if it's not a high-percentage play, in order to get some of that action. Here's the list of #1 fantasy QBs every year since 1987: Cunningham, Cunningham, Majkowski, Cunningham, Moon, Young, Young, Young, Favre, Favre, Favre, Young, Warner, Culpepper, Warner, Culpepper, Culpepper, Culpepper, Palmer, Manning, Brady. Cunningham, Young, and Culpepper account for more than half of those first-place finishes all by themselves. Expanding this list to top-3 finishes would add a ton more finishes by Young and Cunningham as well as notable names such as Elway and McNabb. If you want to be a fantasy uberstud, you either need to threaten 40 TD passes (and hope the rest of the league doesn't do the same), or else you need to be very mobile. It is a SIGNIFICANT competitive advantage. Vince Young's fantasy upside right now is something in the order of five #1 fantasy finishes. I honestly don't believe there's a single QB in the entire league with his upside right now, and that includes both Brady and Manning. If you hold on to Young, and you're wrong, then you've burned a roster spot and lost some value. If you hold him and you're right, you just set yourself up to be the dominant fantasy franchise in your league for the next 5-10 years.Besides, it's not a science. I'm high on Cutler, for instance, despite the fact that he finished 11th this season. I was high on Roethlisberger despite failing to reach the plateau. If a QB is clearly showing me SOMETHING, even if it's not translating into fantasy numbers, then I'm going to hold him. It's only when you're holding on to the QB for no reason other than blind hope that things are looking bad.
I took MJD 13th overall in my startup dynasty draft this year, and I considered it an absolute steal despite having much "better" picks still on the table (guys like Portis, Alexander, all of the WRs, McGahee). I received several offers for him early in the season when he was struggling and laughed them off, saying that, in my mind, "selling low" on MJD was merely getting a top-10 player in return instead of asking for a top-5 guy. In the end, I finally wound up pulling the trigger on a move that sent MJD in order to get me Randy Moss. I was 2-4 at the time, and the trade propelled me to a blistering finish (7 straight wins to end the season, including 5 straight top-2 weekly finishes and the season-long total points title). My team was deep enough that I absorbed the loss of MJD without blinking (my other RBs were Westy and Lynch while struggles with Walker and Evans were forcing me to start Marty Booker).Despite all of this, I have been absolutely sick over the trade all season long. MJD is a force of nature. Everything Reggie Bush was supposed to be, Jones-Drew is... and then some. He's fast, he's shifty, he's got incredible hands, he's a devastating returner... and at USC, LenDale White would have been pulled off the field in short yardage situations in favor of MJD. Even moreso, he's just one of those guys who I love to watch. There are some players that I like owning because I simply love the way they play the game. Watching how they carry themselves on the field just makes me happy. It's impossible not to love the fire and energy that MJD plays with, to the point where I'd almost rather lose with MJD than win with anyone else. I make some joking references to "my guys" from time to time, but MJD is very definitely one of "my guys", and I'm going to make a concerted effort to get him back this offseason, regardless of cost.Thinking about it, I don't think I'd trade him straight up for Addai. All Addai has going for him is his system, and Jacksonville's offensive system is probably even better than Indy's (it's just that MJD is currently sharing the load). I've seen a lot of things this year that concern me about MJD- he's not had the power he had last year, and he's been lacking the home runs, although his receiving, blocking, and returning are all still off the charts... but in the end, MJD is essentially what Reggie Bush should have been. Whatever people were willing to give up for Bush, that's what they should be giving up for Jones-Drew.Fear & Loathing said:
Check out YPC, TD%, Success Rate, and fantasy PPG. Just because two players play in a similar role doesn't mean they should have similar value. Jacobs is just dramatically more talented than White is.greeklightnin said:
Westbrook, no. Lynch, yes.
Well, beauty is in the eye of beholder with most players. How high of a pick you can get really depends on your ability to find someone in your league who likes Welker and needs an immediate impact WR. I know I have young teams in most of my dynasty leagues and probably wouldn't even want to give up a top 15 rookie pick for Welker. But if someone had a team on the brink of contending then maybe you could get 1.06 or 1.07 for Welker in a PPR. I doubt you could get much higher since everyone with a top 5-6 selection thinks he's going to draft a gem. That said, I do think you can establish some rough guidlines. I would say the top 12-13 WRs would all command a top 3 rookie pick in a PPR. Some owners might not want to make that deal, but a guy like Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson is worth more than the pick in that format. There would be more variance in the 15-30 WR since the value of those guys seems a little less certain than the value of the elite WRs. I think you'd have to give up a top 5-6 pick to get someone like Sidney Rice or Lee Evans, but an unspectacular veteran like Hines Ward or Laveranues Coles would probably only cost a late first round rookie pick. Most of the WRs in the 30-50 range could fetch a 2nd-3rd round rookie pick in a PPR. You could get a late 1st if you found a team who really likes one of these guys. But realistically, most of these WRs are unproven rookies an unimpressive veterans. So it can be tough to get teams to give up their early rookie picks for this type of player.
Yes, and beauty is in the eye of the beholder for rankings too. That's why we see some players higher on one rank list and much lower on others. That's the nature of this that there is no consensus. So, what I'm proposing is to have the owner of this ranking list that many of us like (F&L) show us how much "beauty" he sees in the picks and where he ranks them. From there, we can find out if most agree or disagree, just like most of the posts on here are (x is ranked too high, y is ranked too low). Your general guidelines for picks are how I feel too, but those are just that--general guidelines. I've never seen them nailed down specifically which is what I'm proposing. Again, it may not work, but I think it's possible. We could simply say that Welker is in the 15-25 range of WRs, but that isn't necessarily helpful. So instead, many people have actual lists and give him a specific ranking (ranked #17 on a certain list, for example). Then, we post on here why we'd bump him a little up or a little down or above this guy or below that guy. Why can't we do the same for these future picks that have both perceived and actual value? I think the fact that they aren't linked to a specific player is why we've never seen them incorporated among player rankings, but maybe we can try.
