San Diego's baby-blueprint for victory
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 17, 2008
(Ed. Note: the author and Chief Troll will join Dennis & Callahan on WEEI 850 AM in Boston Friday at 7:20 a.m. to discuss San Diego’s blueprint to beat New England.)
By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts Mike Brady wanna-be
New England’s opponents this year – not to mention the pigskin “pundits” – have turned into amateur architects over the past few months, searching for the proverbial blueprint to beat the Patriots.
So far the effort has gone as well as O.J.’s quest for the real killers.
The best any team has been able to produce is a blueprint for remaining competitive midway through the fourth quarter. And that blueprint makes for a rickety row-house on Victory Lane.
The best the “pundits” have produced are a list of meaningless and misguided clichés about “aging” linebackers or a “vulnerable” defense. And that argument is imploded by the dynamite of actual evidence. The Patriots, for example, surrendered 288.3 YPG this season, the fewest by a New England team since 1979, while giving up just 8.4 second-half points per game (despite surrendering a lot of garbage-time points while sporting large second-half leads).
But leave it to the I.M. Pei of pigskin, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, to secure the necessary blueprints for beating New England.
The blueprint we uncovered tells us that if any team can complete the job, it’s the Chargers. Let’s call it San Diego’s baby-blueprint to beat New England, in honor of the pigskin-pastel of their alternative togs.
Despite their slow start, the Chargers proved to be one of the most statistically dominant teams in the NFL this year. If you size them up across the board in our Quality Stats, only New England and Green Bay were stronger, and the margin between the three was so slim that O.J.’s buddies use it to jimmy open doors in Vegas hotel rooms.
* The Patriots ranked an average of 4.44 in our nine Quality Stats
* The Packers ranked an average of 4.56 in our nine Quality Stats
* The Chargers ranked an average of 4.67 in our nine Quality Stats
The Chargers topped the entire NFL in three of our nine Quality Stats. Only New England itself led the league in more categories (four).
San Diego’s statistical dominance offers us a pretty definitive guide to why the Chargers can beat the Patriots. We didn’t say will beat the Patriots; we said can beat the Patriots.
And, certainly, the injuries to key San Diego players Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson (none of whom practiced Wednesday), can shatter the best-laid plans. But if the Chargers do win, only the Cold, Hard Football Facts will have outlined the pattern ahead of time.
Baby-blueprint: San Diego boasts the best pass defense in football
The Cold, Hard Football Facts measure pass defenses by Defensive Passer Rating, a “Quality Stat” because it has a direct correlation to winning football games: the top 11 teams in Defensive Passer Rating this year all reached the playoffs.
And the Chargers topped the list, allowing opposing passers a 70.0 rating this year. Their capabilities were most evident in their league-leading 30 picks, eight more than any other team in football. The 2007 Chargers are the first team in franchise history to lead the league in either category, let alone both.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have proven time and again the devestating effect of interceptions in the playoffs. Teams that throw 0 INTs have won 78.6 of their playoff games in the Super Bowl Era. Teams that throw two or more picks in the playoffs win just 23.5 percent of the time.
We’ve yet to see anybody truly shutdown Tom Brady’s passing attack this year. And, of course, he absolutely shredded San Diego in their first meeting back in Week 2:
* 25 of 31 (80.6%) for 279 yards, 9.0 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 123.0 passer rating.
But these lightning Bolts need only strike once. And if any team in football this year has a shot at humbling New England’s historic attack, it’s San Diego.
Baby-blueprint: San Diego is the top Big Play team in football
The Cold, Hard Football Facts measure each team in its ability to make “Big Plays” on both sides of the ball.
Most NFL contests are wars of attrition in which one or two Big Plays typically prove the difference between victory and defeat (our definition of “Big Plays” can be found here). Our Big Play Index is a hugely important indicator with a high correlation to winning football games.
Teams that won the Big Play battle this year were a remarkable 180-34 (.841). (Forty-two games featured an even Big Play battle.)
The "pundits," of course, once again fail to understand even the most basic concepts of football, such as the omnipotence of Big Plays in the NFL. Their "blueprints" to beat New England typically call for teams to "grind out" those "long drives" and "eat the clock." Not only do these arguments represent lazy, cliche-riddled work, it's the equivalent of calling for a Pickett's Charge of pigskin: ordering an under-equipped army to launch a full front assault over exposed territory against a larger enemy force in an entrenched position.
In other words, the plan preferred by the "pundits" is pure suicide. Their "blueprint" calls for outmanned teams to overpower the Patriots in a war of attrition. Stupid "pundits."
Instead, the baby-blueprint to beat New England calls for gridiron guerilla warfare, a series of quick, unforeseen (and, yes, even lucky) strikes in the Big Play department: the team that beats New England will strike quickly with Big Plays, and at times and places you could not predict.
And no team was better in the Big Play wars this year than San Diego. The Chargers led the league in the number of Big Plays they made (69), eight more than second-place Minnesota. More importantly, the Chargers led the league in Big Play differential (+29), two ahead of second place New England.
All those interceptions, long runs and explosive special teams plays add up to a lot of game-winning moments for the Chargers.
But the Patriots certainly pose a difficult Big Play challenge. They allowed just 28 Big Plays, fewest in the NFL this year.
Baby-blueprint: San Diego is the most efficient team in football
The Cold, Hard Football Facts measure the efficiency of each team’s offense and defense through our Scoreability and Bendability Indices. These Quality Stats have a high correlation to victory because they do not measure offenses and defenses in a vacuum. Instead, they measure how each unit on a team interacts to 1) put points on the board or 2) keep opponents off the scoreboard.
In other words, they are measures of team-wide efficiency.
And no team rated more highly than the Chargers: they defined the “bend-but-don’t break” phenomenon on defense this year, with a No. 1 ranking in our Bendability Index. And they were second only to New England in our Scoreability Index. (It's actually quite a tribute to the widely-criticized Norv Turner that his team played so efficiently in 2007; poorly coached teams never rate highly in these indicators.)
The San Diego defense this year forced opponents to march 18.04 Yards Per Point Scored, or the equivalent of a daunting 126.3 yards for every 7 points they put on the board. It tells us that opponents churned up a lot of empty yards against the Chargers.
The 30 INTs were certainly a big reason why. And the win over Indy last week provided a perfect example of this “bend-don’t-break” efficiency: the Colts cranked out 446 yards of offense, including 402 in the air. But they produced a measly 24 points – a pathetic number relative to the yards they generated. Two red-zone picks by San Diego were a big reason for Indy's lack of efficiency on offense.
The San Diego offense, meanwhile, was highly efficient throughout the year. The Chargers needed just 12.24 Yards Per Point Scored in 2007, or the equivalent 85.7 yards for every 7 points they put on the board. It tells us that the Chargers often find themselves in good scoring position, and then take advantage of those opportunities.
And we don’t want to get any of those “yeah, but” emails that these arguments about scoring efficiency always generate. Yes, special teams and defense have played a large role in San Diego’s scoring opportunities. Yes, we understand that argument. Yes, we understand that other teams were more spectacular on offense, if you compare only the production of those individual offenses.
But that’s the point, folks. The scoreboard does not care where the points come from. The scoreboad does not care that a big kick return gave the offense a short field. The scoreboard does not care if points came off a pick-six instead of a long offensive drive. The scoreboard is a truly egalitarian place: it treats all points equally. And so should football fans.
San Diego’s ability to score efficiently, paired with the most efficient defense in football this year – the one defense that makes opponents work harder than any other to put points on the board – spell out one very dangerous team.
It's a team that clearly offers a blueprint to topple the Patriots powerhouse.
Link
Welker made catches, dove to avoid hits and when he took hits he just bounced right back up and took some more. For a guy his size, Welker is tough as nails.
I hope they do. My respect for Norv would shoot through the roof, even in a Pats win. Del Rio gameplanned a good game on offense Saturday night, but stubbornly sticking to the "4-man rush, play 7 deep" with an occasional blitz tossed in was unwise to say the least.
in regards to the Bolts chances:
The philly game was a mix of overload blitzes that disrupted the timing, and was very effective, but NE was still able to adjust and made Welker the goto. Any scheme I've seen to date will leave some opening, and the Pats have shown themselves to be adept at finding and adjusting to whatever is open. What seemed to work was timely plays that stopped the pats short of TDs, which hasn't happened all that much. Thats the key, finding a way to hold them to FGs - easier said than done - to sticking with this team. They're going to move the ball, and if you can turn 2 or more drives into FG rather than TD...
ats O vs SD D: San Diego has a better pass rush than Jacksonville but they are not as good as covering receivers as Jacksonville. I look for the Patriots continue with the short passing game but the passes will need to be quicker coming out. But the difference in this game is that the Pats will take some chances downfield trying to exploit SD’s secondary. They will try to run the ball on occasion early in the game but if it is not successful they will go to almost exclusively pass. They saw what manning did to this defense and will follow a similar path.Pats D vs SD O: I think they will key on the run and try to bring a lot of pressure on the QB. Rodney Harrison will be close to the line of scrimmage and either rush the Qb or help against the run. This may lead to a couple of big plays from SD but the Pats only hope to stop the Chargers from having consistently long drives. Rivers will be fairly immobile if he plays and Volek does not have a quick release so pressure will be applied against either one. If Tomlinson is a no go then they can play the pass more. They usually have good success against the more physical straight ahead backs like Turner and less success against the shifty ones like Tomlinson.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. It's not that I'm expecting him to get beat deep, I just think you can go after him with near impunity and expect success until he gets some serious help. Like I said I've seen him fail even when he was in good position - not making plays on the ball, and dropping what should have been easy interceptions several times. With the physical receivers the Chargers have in Jackson, Chambers, Naanee, Gates (if he plays much) they should be able to pick on Hobbs. Problem is Norv's changed the offense and doesn't run much short stuff. I hope he makes the adjustment. The Chargers need any advantage they can get, and I think they (and any of the teams remaining in the playoffs) have an exploitable advantage here.
on the bolded part. Maybe you're thinking Brandon Meriweather. I can't think of many instances where Hobbs dropped surefire INTs. The rest is pretty much correct as Hobbs usually is playing too deep to come back and make a play on the ball. He is a target, that's for sure.
Hey does anybody know which uniforms the teams are wearing? I believe the home team can decide at any point almost right up until game time. It would be cool to see the Chargers bust out the throw backs for this one.
), they've had an incredible year, represent one of the few clear advantages the Chargers have over the Pats, and hopefully have a gigantic impact on Sunday's game.
