Chaos Mock (1 Viewer)

Okay, this mock is a simple work up of a few ideas that are weighing on me at the moment. It wasn't my intention to post it here, so the only commentary is this pre®amble explaining some of my thinking.

First, based on comments tossed around in the Bloom 100 and elsewhere in the draftnik community, I wanted to see a mock with QB1 in a freefall. I think Ryan is a poor man's Roethlisberger without the "big game" yet similar in key respects. Still his limits and decision making slide him a click below what I consider a franchise QB. He's not top five to ten material in my thinking though it appears he could certainly go that high. What if he slides like I think he should? Where does it stop?

Second, I sense Derrick Harvey and Quention Groves are both being underrated by the niks and pundits. These are the freaky sort of athletic DE/talents that are in huge demand near and often in the top 10. I think both could go that high and wanted to form a mock around the established precedent. Who has the need?

Third, I think James Hardy may be under the radar. The more I think about his carreer, the more I realize just how nicely he translates... in a bigtime, possibly elite sort of way. Likewise, I think the dynamics of a package like Desean Jackson are too quickly written off by his size. It felt like copying the Dolphins Ginn controversy, but the thought of the mismatches he creates forced my hand.

Fourth, I wanted to dispell the idea that Denver will not ever take an RB in round one. They admitted to wanting Maroney if they couldn't work a deal to nab Cutler. Nobody saw the Cutler move coming, and we would have been equally stunned if they took Maroney in another clearly plausible scenario. Well, these backs grade higher than Maroney, and I can see Denver taking the plunge. Of course, Kubiak is very capable of following Shanny's lead on this idea as his team is just as needy. To think it could never happen is not rational. I perceive excellent marriages of need and talent with these two projections.

Finally, I wanted to fix the Cowboys. It's not easy for some Cowboy fans to look in the mirror and see what a weakness Roy Williams is. Time to face it. Hamlin was good to excellent last year, but he's probably gone in another year. Watkins is a great special teamer and he's okay in a pinch in coverage. They need more talent across that secondary. I want them to take the best safety in the draft (if he's there) and admit Roy is best off in the box in run support (horsecollars notwithstanding) and nowhere near WRs (or TEs, RBs and tackle eligibles) in the pattern. Likewise, they need an infusion of coverage ability on the corner if they're going to take that next step.

With these things in mind, this is the mock that developed.

1. Chris Long, DE, Miami Dolphins

2. Jake Long, OT, St. Louis Rams

3. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Atlanta Falcons

4. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

6. Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, New York Jets

7. Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, New England Patriots

8. Dominique Rogers Cromartie, CB, Baltimore Ravens

9. Derrick Harvey, DE, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Mike Jenkins, CB, New Orleans Saints

11. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos

13. Desean Jackson, WR, Carolina Panthers

14. Ryan Clady, OT, Chicago Bears

15. Dan Connor, LB, Detroit Lions

16. Leodis McKelvin, CB Arizona Cardinals

17. Phillip Merling, DE, Minnesota Vikings

18. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Houston Texans

19. Devin Thomas, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

20. Matt Ryan, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

22. Kenny Phillips, S, Dallas Cowboys

23. Chris Williams, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers

24. Limas Sweed, WR, Tennessee Titans

25. Jeff Otah, OT, Seattle Seahawks

26. Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville

27. Branden Albert, OL, San Diego Chargers

28. Antoine Cason, CB, Dallas Cowboys

29. Carl Nicks, OT, San Francisco

30. Aqib Talib, CB, Green Bay Packers

31. Diddlydoo, n/a, New England Patriots

32. Keith Rivers, LB, New York Giants

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos

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As the owner of the 1.01, I hope you're right.

Hard to imagine the Broncos passing on Clady after his combine and pro day.

And please be wrong about Kelly to the Redskins. ray:

i would love mendenhall in houston but i dont see it happening. Nice limb with denver and stewart.

in recent history has there been a draft where the 1st QB wasnt taken high?

hard to criticize a mock that openly states i am going out on a limb. I will state that I think McFadden falls before Ryan does. Can you imagine Denver getting mcfadden at 12?

Always to read anything CC writes.

I still think Ryan is a true franchise QB and should go in the top 3-5.

Hardy could definitely be big time if he gets his head on straight and rounds out his game, I still prefer Kelly by a decent margin, although I could see a team having Hardy higher.

I wish everyone would be as clear as to where they are coming from when they go against the grain.

nice out of the box thinking...

i'm increasingly hoping the rams get jake long if they don't get chris long, who i also expect to be gone by 1.02 (though i would be OK if they trade down a few picks & still come away with gholston or ellis)...

Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson on the same team? Would that be the smallest starting WR combo ever?

Orgazmo said:

Hard to imagine the Broncos passing on Clady after his combine and pro day.And please be wrong about Kelly to the Redskins. ray:

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What's so bad about Kelly? I have him wr4 here, and the Skins could absolutely use a physical presence like him opposite Santana, no?Clady I should have discussed in the ramble. I see him as a Winston Justice without the freakish strength and athleticism. He never dominated at Boise like Colledge did. He's just got this big reputation. At the combine he hurt a pec on his 25th rep. At his pro day he ran acceptably and hit an all-time best with a 31" vert. This is good stuff, not great stuff. He's a little thin legged and/or top heavy and plays high. He got by by being big and strong and reasonably athletic, but all that changes at the next level. He isn't as big strong and athletic as Justice but plays just like him. I know the Cards jumped on Levi real early and someone (Chiefs) could do the same, but I think Clady is a little hype. I also think Bloom agrees after watching him carefully too. Additionally, there's a lot of OT talent in this draft. It is very hard to rank the top 10. Dunlap and Clady play similar football and I see Dunlap out of many top 10s. There is only one John Stewart in this draft. Okay, maybe two, but the point is obvious.

Looks pretty good. Stewart to Denver seems possible, but unlikely even though I could see both he and Mendenhall going earlier than expected. I read somewhere that they could each go in the 10-20 range on account of them being the best player available at that point. Stewart to the Bengals is my dark horse. They probably have too many other needs to blow that high of a pick on offense, but they could use a healthy young featured back.

I don't pay much attention to defensive prospects until after the draft so I won't comment on any of those guys. The only offensive pick that looks a little off to me is Jackson to the Panthers. If they go with a WR in the first round then I'd look for them to take someone who offers a sharper contrast to Smith.

I'm not wild about this crop of passers either, but a QB has gone in the top 10 every year since the Pennington class if I'm not mistaken. Someone is going to roll the dice on one of these guys early. My money is on Atlanta with KC, Baltimore, Carolina, and Chicago also in the mix.

Parcell's won't be able to move the #1 pick so he'll take the best pass-rusher in the draft. Vernon Gholston! Maybe.

Chaos Commish said:

4. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

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With both Fargas and Rhodes re-signing with Oakland, do you really see them draftting a RB this high?

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos

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Stranger thins have happened (not many) but I doubt they will go RB either in round 1 with this draft being so deep at the position.

31. Diddly Doo, n/a, New England Patriots

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S.O.D.

3nOut said:

Chaos Commish said:

4. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

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With both Fargas and Rhodes re-signing with Oakland, do you really see them draftting a RB this high?

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I'm quite certain the Raiders have decided to roll with Fargas, Rhodes and Bush.

Chaos Commish said:

What's so bad about Kelly? I have him wr4 here, and the Skins could absolutely use a physical presence like him opposite Santana, no?Clady I should have discussed in the ramble. I see him as a Winston Justice without the freakish strength and athleticism. He never dominated at Boise like Colledge did. He's just got this big reputation. At the combine he hurt a pec on his 25th rep. At his pro day he ran acceptably and hit an all-time best with a 31" vert. This is good stuff, not great stuff. He's a little thin legged and/or top heavy and plays high. He got by by being big and strong and reasonably athletic, but all that changes at the next level.

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Nothing at all about Kelly. I love him and would hate for him to go to DC.I'm disappointed to see that about Clady. I don't watch as much film as you so I won't argue, I just liked what little I did see.

I concur that Diddly Doo is the SOD and best pick in any mock.

It's interesting cause my gut reaction is 'you can't just declare you are dropping a player for the heck of it' and then followed by 'wait, that's what a mock IS'.

Like Bloom said, I appreciate the up front nature of the mock - and as an experiment (ain't that what a mock is anyway?) I think it's pretty successful.

I have few quibbles, once I have accepted the premise that in this reality the #1 Qb dropped significantly. I think that NE goes DB - - although the aging LB core makes this choice defensible in every way.

RB to Denver seems unlikely with Henry and Young - until you remember Henry's possible vacation if he forgets to avoid people with wacky tabacky.

And I think unless Carolina pulls off a miracle, aren't they still short some O-linemen? I see that as a much bigger need than a WR.

Still an all a good effort - especially since some of the choices - especially the QB drop - can be and were well defended IMO.

GREAT food for thought. And good work.

Would have no beef if the Cowboys selected Phillips and Cason. I am actually hoping for them to draft 2 CBs in the first round though

Good read

But don't you think QB to the TB Bucs is a little too easy?

Chaos Commish said:

17. Phillip Merling, DE, Minnesota Vikings

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I haven't seen his name in many mocks. I assume that his pro day was partly responsible for his rise in the rankings. He worked out on March 4th but I can't find the times on the web? If possible, can you post the results?

As plausible as any.

This is a hard draft to project since there is precious little "elite" talent. The difference between the #1 pick and #32 pick is pretty slim.

Thanks for the comments all. A few responses.

Andy Dufresne said:

As plausible as any. This is a hard draft to project since there is precious little "elite" talent. The difference between the #1 pick and #32 pick is pretty slim.

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Not as plausible as any. I think yours is more plausible in many respects. Ryan probably has a 90% chance of being taken in the top ten and a 99% chance of being gone before Tampa Bay picks. This wasn't an attempted prophetic projection. I just wanted to look at a mock with the explained scenarios worked in. I was doing this while watching yours develop with no intention of posting, because I was I was forcing a QB freefall. Forcing Groves and Harvey into the top 10, forcing Stewart to the Broncos, forcing Hardy and Jackson to the top of the WR board, and forcing Dallas to pick two DBs. Of those five I think the RB, WR, and DE ideas are reasonably plausible. Things could go that way. I sure prefer Groves and Harvey to a lot of the talent I see being projected above them. I think Stewart and Mendenhall aren't just top backs, but top 15 prospects from a best available perspective. To Bloom -- I like Ryan a lot. Big Ben was by far my favorite QB in that draft, and Ryan's best moments are similar to things Ben does -- avoid pressure without just running downfield, remain calm and buy time, save a broken play in a big way. I think those moments from Ryan last year are what started setting him apart. That playmaking ability I always say I look for is there. But it was the down to down mundane decision making that bugs me. Cutler was accused of being a gunslinger and I disagreed at length. He was very precise, razor sharp and always willing to throw the ball away. Ryan gets real loose with the ball, doesn't see the defense clearly, or just ignores it and forces things. Sometimes I thought the impressive Roethlisbergeresque plays were just balls and luck, whereas Ben made it look easy. No doubt it was impressive watching him produce with the talent he had, or lack thereof, but I think gunslinger applies here. He is exciting and the ceiling is franchise grade, the floor is just a little shaky. Way too many teams need a QB for him to fall as far as I wanted to drop him here. The worst case realistic scenario for him is probably going to either Detroit or Chicago out of the top 10. On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.To Magaw -- At this stage in early March, I feel like a Long Long opening to the draft is the best possibility. I personally think the DTs are better players, but all four are very nice talents. Howie's kid just seems like a "Parcell's guy" like busting Cowboy Bobby Carpenter. Jake seems to have so much separation on the other OTs, his value is sky high. No matter what the Rams get a fine ballplayer here -- and DL or OT, they meet a big need. To Power -- Carolina has to get the pressure off of Steve Smith. He is an amazing receiver. We've all seen him not just double teamed, but even triple teamed. One of the things I loved about Ginn was no matter any opinion of his overall talent, you just knew he would draw double teams. Desean does that for Steve Smith. He creates a real problem in 3 WR sets. Muhammad is back in Carolina probably to finish his career and should be #2 next year. He is beloved there, btw. Jarrett is a talent who hopefully fills the big possession role. Desean opens things up for Smith, and that offense suddenly becomes very difficult to defend. There's also the supreme return skills that are so valued these days. I think they too can find some OL support in rounds 2-5 this year. They probably cannot find someone else who brings all Desean does for them.EBF -- Last year I projected a bunch of WRs in the first round because I thought they were best available players. Well, a lot went in the first, just not the exact ones I projected (no Jarrett and Rice, but add Davis and Gonzalez). This year I have the same thinking about the top three RBs -- BAPs who will go early. Someone will accuse this thinking as being too fantasy oriented, but that's not the case. The top three RBs are 3 of the best 20 football players in this draft. Period. We may not agree on how to rank them, but I think we can agree on that, maybe. Or do you think McFadden should fall all the way to the second day? Donnybrook -- Merling has been "on the rise" for about a month. He appeared in the top 10 of Andy's epic one pick at a time mock. He is widely viewed as the most complete DE in the draft, and best against the run. I think more explosive QB killers may have more value, but Merling smells like a certain first rounder, possibly pretty high. ebc -- I had to stop the Ryan freefall somewhere. Bypassing Tampa would have made what I already pushed too far completely unreasonable, imo. I could see Gruden move up and take Ryan before letting him fall all the way to him. Ryan would be excellent under Gruden. Putting him there was rewarding him after torturing him with a freefall. simmon -- We can only hope. The first round hasn't been good for Dallas lately. Carpenter looks like a bust at a position they really didn't need to address. Spencer, who I still have hope for, looks like an attempt to fix the Carpenter mistake while still being at a position where they're okay. NoFB -- Thanks for the word. I think I covered most your comments except NE's need for a DB. New England is unpredictable and in my effort to force the DE freaks into the top ten, well, they just helped me pull it off. They could certainly seek a DB, but I expect them to go BAP there, whoever they think he is. 3rd and cstu -- Excellent point about the Raiders and their backs. I just plugged the first five picks in quickly to get to the other ideas. The Raiders passing on McFadden, and McFadden falling more than Ryan are both probably more likely than what I was looking at here. I'm a stubborn McFadden supporter and we are talking about a franchise known for seeking speed with a history of drafting Bo with a Heisman and Super Bowl MVP winning young stud RB on the roster. I think it would be a mistake for them to pass up this kid, but I won't be surprised if they do. I agree with you both, odds are McFadden to the Raiders does not happen.So. This got me thinking. What if McFadden and Ryan fell and my other more reasonable out of the box ideas still happened? Wait, better yet, stop dropping Ryan and drop McFadden instead. EBF doesn't do mocks, so this revision is my interpretation of an EBFmock. 1. Chris Long, DE, Miami Dolphins2. Jake Long, OT, St. Louis Rams3. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons 4. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Oakland Raiders5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, Kansas City Chiefs6. Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, New York Jets7. Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, New England Patriots8. Dominique Rogers Cromartie, CB, Baltimore Ravens9. Derrick Harvey, DE, Cincinnati Bengals10. Mike Jenkins, CB, New Orleans Saints11. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos13. Desean Jackson, WR, Carolina Panthers14. Darren McFadden, RB, Chicago Bears15. Dan Connor, LB, Detroit Lions16. Leodis McKelvin, CB Arizona Cardinals17. Phillip Merling, DE, Minnesota Vikings18. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Houston Texans19. Devin Thomas, WR, Philadelphia Eagles20. Ryan Clady, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers21. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins22. Kenny Phillips, S, Dallas Cowboys23. Chris Williams, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers24. Limas Sweed, WR, Tennessee Titans25. Jeff Otah, OT, Seattle Seahawks26. Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville27. Branden Albert, OL, San Diego Chargers28. Antoine Cason, CB, Dallas Cowboys29. Carl Nicks, OT, San Francisco30. Aqib Talib, CB, Green Bay Packers31. Diddlydoo, n/a, New England Patriots32. Keith Rivers, LB, New York GiantsOkay, that was a quick cut and paste and actually difficult to find a spot for three RBs in picks 10-20, but this is probably closer to reality than the first look.

Chaos Commish said:

So. This got me thinking. What if McFadden and Ryan fell and my other more reasonable out of the box ideas still happened? Wait, better yet, stop dropping Ryan and drop McFadden instead. EBF doesn't do mocks, so this revision is my interpretation of an EBFmock.

1. Chris Long, DE, Miami Dolphins

2. Jake Long, OT, St. Louis Rams

3. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

4. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Oakland Raiders

5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

6. Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, New York Jets

7. Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, New England Patriots

8. Dominique Rogers Cromartie, CB, Baltimore Ravens

9. Derrick Harvey, DE, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Mike Jenkins, CB, New Orleans Saints

11. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos

13. Desean Jackson, WR, Carolina Panthers

14. Darren McFadden, RB, Chicago Bears

15. Dan Connor, LB, Detroit Lions

16. Leodis McKelvin, CB Arizona Cardinals

17. Phillip Merling, DE, Minnesota Vikings

18. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Houston Texans

19. Devin Thomas, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

20. Ryan Clady, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

22. Kenny Phillips, S, Dallas Cowboys

23. Chris Williams, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers

24. Limas Sweed, WR, Tennessee Titans

25. Jeff Otah, OT, Seattle Seahawks

26. Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville

27. Branden Albert, OL, San Diego Chargers

28. Antoine Cason, CB, Dallas Cowboys

29. Carl Nicks, OT, San Francisco

30. Aqib Talib, CB, Green Bay Packers

31. Diddlydoo, n/a, New England Patriots

32. Keith Rivers, LB, New York Giants

Okay, that was a quick cut and paste and actually difficult to find a spot for three RBs in picks 10-20, but this is probably closer to reality than the first look.

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Really good stuff!!! I know things will never work out the way we expect them to, but I like this alot.

DonFue said:

Parcell's won't be able to move the #1 pick so he'll take the best pass-rusher in the draft. Vernon Gholston! Maybe.

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Since we're on the topic of unusual drafts, and this is a scenario that I've been thinking about for awhile, I thought I'd add a little bit more to it.Here's a blub that I wrote on this subject in a previous mock. One crazy thought I had for Miami. Gholston. Going off memory, Tuna has used first roudn picks on OLBs: Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie McGinest, John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, and Bobby Carpenter. IIRC, LT, Banks, and McGinnest were all top 5 picks. Another top 10 LB Tuna pick was James Farrior.

There's also this link to a post I made a couple of years ago outlining Parcells' draft history in teh 1st and 2nd rounds. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=223759

So there's some significant basis for Tuna going OLB in the Top 5. With his Top 5 picks, he's gone LT, Banks, Bledsoe, McGinnest, and Newman. Three of them are OLBs. Its a position that Tuna values HIGHLY.

Ridgelake said:

DonFue said:

Parcell's won't be able to move the #1 pick so he'll take the best pass-rusher in the draft. Vernon Gholston! Maybe.

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Since we're on the topic of unusual drafts, and this is a scenario that I've been thinking about for awhile, I thought I'd add a little bit more to it.Here's a blub that I wrote on this subject in a previous mock. One crazy thought I had for Miami. Gholston. Going off memory, Tuna has used first roudn picks on OLBs: Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie McGinest, John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, and Bobby Carpenter. IIRC, LT, Banks, and McGinnest were all top 5 picks. Another top 10 LB Tuna pick was James Farrior.

There's also this link to a post I made a couple of years ago outlining Parcells' draft history in teh 1st and 2nd rounds. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=223759

So there's some significant basis for Tuna going OLB in the Top 5. With his Top 5 picks, he's gone LT, Banks, Bledsoe, McGinnest, and Newman. Three of them are OLBs. Its a position that Tuna values HIGHLY.

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This could be Chris Long, you know. He would do well as a 3-4 OLB.

I think you have a good general feel for the draft stock of these players. I agree about the RBs. Given the convergence of talent and need this year, I just don't see any of these guys slipping to the Seahawks like I've seen in a lot of mocks. CIN, DEN, CAR, CHI, ARI, HOU, and TB could all snap up one of these guys. As for McFadden, I think Oakland will be tempted. I'm not sure he's worth a top 10 pick, but it sure seems like he's going to go in that range.

It seems like almost every year gives us a few skill position players who go higher than the pundits predict in January and February. Chris Perry, Craig Davis, Jason Campbell, Anthony Gonzalez, and Joseph Addai are a few guys who were flying a little under the pundit radar before the draft. There have to be a couple guys like that this year. Maybe Chad Henne or Chris Johnson sneaks in there. Maybe one of the lesser known WRs like Caldwell will do it.

I am convinced that the Bills will take either Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy at 1.11 if they don't trade down. Both players would be solid picks IMO.

EBF said:

I am convinced that the Bills will take either Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy at 1.11 if they don't trade down. Both players would be solid picks IMO.

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If Buffalo signs Bryant Johnson from Arizona, they'd fill their need for a big WR to complement Evans. That would free them up to go a lot of places in the draft.

Ridgelake said:

EBF said:

I am convinced that the Bills will take either Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy at 1.11 if they don't trade down. Both players would be solid picks IMO.

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If Buffalo signs Bryant Johnson from Arizona, they'd fill their need for a big WR to complement Evans. That would free them up to go a lot of places in the draft.

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I think they'd be much better off using a pick on a rookie. Hardy and Kelly have beast potential, whereas Johnson appears to be a pretty ho-hum talent. I think the team's reluctance to sign Johnson might be a direct result of the availability of Hardy and Kelly. Buffalo has quietly been making smart personnel moves with the recent additions of Whitner, Poz, Edwards, and Lynch. If that trend continues then I'd expect them to do the smart thing and add one of the big name rookie receivers. Combine either of these guys with Evans and you suddenly have a 1-2 punch that can beat you deep and destroy you in the red zone.

If Mcfadden dropped to the Bears, I'd never be able to enjoy it since I would shortly there-after drop dead of a heart attack.

Interesting 1st Rd Projection.......and I can follow/concur with most of the logic in your precursory notes........

But a few things I just can't see happening.....

1) Both Denver & Houston selecting a RB......with their systems, 'plug-in any RB and watch him run', coupled with their other desperate needs....DEN OL/DL/DB and HOU DB/DB/DB/OL/WR.......maybe one of these teams takes a RB, but certainly not both....and I'm very confident that HOU will NOT take a RB in Rd 1.......I'd almost bet that their selection is definitely a CB

2) Minnesota needs a pass-rusher.....and from all accounts, Merling is a nice all-around end, but not a pass-rusher.......this would be a disastrous pick as it doesn't address the need from the position, IMO, but hey, teams have made disastrous picks before

3) Dallas selecting 2 DBs in Rd 1. I just don't see the sense in selecting 2 DBs with those picks when they also have a 2nd RD pick, which could be used to acquire a 2nd DB after selecting 1 in the 1st........And especially after scoring only 17 points in a playoff game, in which their offense was exposed for it's lack of explosiveness.......sure, they can score points and did very well on the season doing so, but the fact that they lack explosive playmakers on offense could be the difference in winning or losing the big-games.....some of those holes Barber gets should be 60-70 yd TDs, not 15-20 yd gains........This should propel them to select a home-run threat in Rd 1 with one of their two selections...whether it be DeSean Jackson, Chris Johnson, or Felix Jones.......or McFadden in a trade up, which I will not rule out

4) Lastly, D.Connor over Keith Rivers to a Cover-2 team???.........The Millen-PSU connection has to give way to what makes sense, and this would be very questionable....

Overall, nice thinking outside the box though.......but I'd like to see a 2nd Rd to put these in a little bit better perspective

Chaos Commish said:

On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.

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Now you have me excited. Everybody is saying Buffalo will take Malcolm Kelly, some saying Sweed. Then you throw this Hardy kid out there who I haven't heard a lick about. And with everything you have said, I love it. Is this the general consensus on him or just your opinion of him? I really want Buffalo to go WR in the 1st. I wanted them to go DT first but they finally got smart and took Stroud (haven't been a good D since they lost Fat Pat Williams and Sam Adams).

BILLIEVE said:

Chaos Commish said:

On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.

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Now you have me excited. Everybody is saying Buffalo will take Malcolm Kelly, some saying Sweed. Then you throw this Hardy kid out there who I haven't heard a lick about. And with everything you have said, I love it. Is this the general consensus on him or just your opinion of him? I really want Buffalo to go WR in the 1st. I wanted them to go DT first but they finally got smart and took Stroud (haven't been a good D since they lost Fat Pat Williams and Sam Adams).

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A few Hardy highlights available here:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

He's no Randy Moss, but he moves well for a big guy and was productive in college. I think he'd be a nice complement to Evans. I know Buffalo will be looking to beef up their offense and add more weapons for Edwards. A big WR in round one seems like a good step in that direction. This is a team that could be in the playoffs in the very near future with a couple key additions.

EBF said:

BILLIEVE said:

Chaos Commish said:

On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.

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Now you have me excited. Everybody is saying Buffalo will take Malcolm Kelly, some saying Sweed. Then you throw this Hardy kid out there who I haven't heard a lick about. And with everything you have said, I love it. Is this the general consensus on him or just your opinion of him? I really want Buffalo to go WR in the 1st. I wanted them to go DT first but they finally got smart and took Stroud (haven't been a good D since they lost Fat Pat Williams and Sam Adams).

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A few Hardy highlights available here:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

He's no Randy Moss, but he moves well for a big guy and was productive in college. I think he'd be a nice complement to Evans. I know Buffalo will be looking to beef up their offense and add more weapons for Edwards. A big WR in round one seems like a good step in that direction. This is a team that could be in the playoffs in the very near future with a couple key additions.

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6'7"? Holy hell! SIGN HIM UP!

BILLIEVE said:

EBF said:

BILLIEVE said:

Chaos Commish said:

On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.

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Now you have me excited. Everybody is saying Buffalo will take Malcolm Kelly, some saying Sweed. Then you throw this Hardy kid out there who I haven't heard a lick about. And with everything you have said, I love it. Is this the general consensus on him or just your opinion of him? I really want Buffalo to go WR in the 1st. I wanted them to go DT first but they finally got smart and took Stroud (haven't been a good D since they lost Fat Pat Williams and Sam Adams).

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A few Hardy highlights available here:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

He's no Randy Moss, but he moves well for a big guy and was productive in college. I think he'd be a nice complement to Evans. I know Buffalo will be looking to beef up their offense and add more weapons for Edwards. A big WR in round one seems like a good step in that direction. This is a team that could be in the playoffs in the very near future with a couple key additions.

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6'7"? Holy hell! SIGN HIM UP!

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That was his listed height. He's only 6'5", but that's still a big target.

I don't know a ton about all these players, and the fact you could put together an entire first round impresses me...

I'll only comment on teams/players I'm pretty well informed about

Chaos Commish said:

1. Chris Long, DE, Miami Dolphins

2. Jake Long, OT, St. Louis Rams

3. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Atlanta Falcons

4. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders <- Al Davis type pick, but I don't see it happening

5. Sedrick Ellis, DT, Kansas City Chiefs

6. Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, New York Jets

7. Quentin Groves, DE/OLB, New England Patriots

8. Dominique Rogers Cromartie, CB, Baltimore Ravens

9. Derrick Harvey, DE, Cincinnati Bengals

10. Mike Jenkins, CB, New Orleans Saints

11. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo Bills <- Bills probably won't draft a WR in the first, but they will grab one or two this draft

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos <- terrible fit for the Broncos

13. Desean Jackson, WR, Carolina Panthers <- No way they draft a first round receiver, if Stewart is here they take him

14. Ryan Clady, OT, Chicago Bears

15. Dan Connor, LB, Detroit Lions

16. Leodis McKelvin, CB Arizona Cardinals

17. Phillip Merling, DE, Minnesota Vikings

18. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Houston Texans <- this would be an AMAZING fit

19. Devin Thomas, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

20. Matt Ryan, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

21. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Washington Redskins

22. Kenny Phillips, S, Dallas Cowboys

23. Chris Williams, OT, Pittsburgh Steelers

24. Limas Sweed, WR, Tennessee Titans

25. Jeff Otah, OT, Seattle Seahawks

26. Calais Campbell, DE, Jacksonville

27. Branden Albert, OL, San Diego Chargers

28. Antoine Cason, CB, Dallas Cowboys

29. Carl Nicks, OT, San Francisco

30. Aqib Talib, CB, Green Bay Packers

31. Diddlydoo, n/a, New England Patriots

32. Keith Rivers, LB, New York Giants

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Deranged Hermit said:

If Mcfadden dropped to the Bears, I'd never be able to enjoy it since I would shortly there-after drop dead of a heart attack.

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When they passed on him

BILLIEVE said:

EBF said:

BILLIEVE said:

Chaos Commish said:

On Hardy -- remember how much I liked Matt Trannon? Yeah, some of that is at play here. I love the basketball players catching balls. Hardy was a starter on the bball team and a star on the football team. It's not that unusual for a football player to be on the roster of major college basketball team, but it is rare when they start. Peppers and Gonzo come to mind and they're pretty good football players. Hardy is a freak athlete. He does a lot of things Colston does with size, body position and the ability to snatch passes that are out of the reach of lesser WRs. He also does things Sidney Rice does with his hops and body control. He is longer and faster than Colston yet similar in skillset to the smaller Rice. A lightweight Gates with WR speed? I'm impressed. I don't know much about the character issue. I read there was a domestic issue with a girlfiend, the mother of his kid. I'm very interested in more on this if you've done the groundwork.

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Now you have me excited. Everybody is saying Buffalo will take Malcolm Kelly, some saying Sweed. Then you throw this Hardy kid out there who I haven't heard a lick about. And with everything you have said, I love it. Is this the general consensus on him or just your opinion of him? I really want Buffalo to go WR in the 1st. I wanted them to go DT first but they finally got smart and took Stroud (haven't been a good D since they lost Fat Pat Williams and Sam Adams).

Click to expand...

A few Hardy highlights available here:http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

He's no Randy Moss, but he moves well for a big guy and was productive in college. I think he'd be a nice complement to Evans. I know Buffalo will be looking to beef up their offense and add more weapons for Edwards. A big WR in round one seems like a good step in that direction. This is a team that could be in the playoffs in the very near future with a couple key additions.

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6'7"? Holy hell! SIGN HIM UP!

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Well, not to curb enthusiasm, my first comment to Bloom was, "Remember how much I liked Matt Trannon?"

kremenull said:

Interesting 1st Rd Projection.......and I can follow/concur with most of the logic in your precursory notes........But a few things I just can't see happening.....1) Both Denver & Houston selecting a RB......with their systems, 'plug-in any RB and watch him run', coupled with their other desperate needs....DEN OL/DL/DB and HOU DB/DB/DB/OL/WR.......maybe one of these teams takes a RB, but certainly not both....and I'm very confident that HOU will NOT take a RB in Rd 1.......I'd almost bet that their selection is definitely a CB2) Minnesota needs a pass-rusher.....and from all accounts, Merling is a nice all-around end, but not a pass-rusher.......this would be a disastrous pick as it doesn't address the need from the position, IMO, but hey, teams have made disastrous picks before3) Dallas selecting 2 DBs in Rd 1. I just don't see the sense in selecting 2 DBs with those picks when they also have a 2nd RD pick, which could be used to acquire a 2nd DB after selecting 1 in the 1st........And especially after scoring only 17 points in a playoff game, in which their offense was exposed for it's lack of explosiveness.......sure, they can score points and did very well on the season doing so, but the fact that they lack explosive playmakers on offense could be the difference in winning or losing the big-games.....some of those holes Barber gets should be 60-70 yd TDs, not 15-20 yd gains........This should propel them to select a home-run threat in Rd 1 with one of their two selections...whether it be DeSean Jackson, Chris Johnson, or Felix Jones.......or McFadden in a trade up, which I will not rule out4) Lastly, D.Connor over Keith Rivers to a Cover-2 team???.........The Millen-PSU connection has to give way to what makes sense, and this would be very questionable....Overall, nice thinking outside the box though.......but I'd like to see a 2nd Rd to put these in a little bit better perspective

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Again, this wasn't a typical forecast-type mock. That might make it sort of worthless, but I was just trying to apply a few concepts and see how it developed. Some of the concepts are admittedly unlikely. Some I like. 1) You're probably right, but it was the stated focus of this mock -- to dispel the idea Denver will never take a Rd 1 back. It is strongly rumored, validated by Shanahan, that they were set to take Maroney if they missed on Cutler. So the plug and play meme may not be an unbreakable rule. I think both those teams are worn from the plug and play process, and need to establish someone in the key RB role. 2) Agreed. I ran out of QB killers when I got to them. I still think they would lean DE if the draft, by some miracle, followed a similar route to this experimental mock.3) Again, it was part of the stated experiment. I have confessed it was unlikely to happen, but wanted to project it anyway, to see what they could do to fix that secondary. As a Cowboy fan I would welcome the approach. As a realist, I do not expect it. 4) Good catch. I confess I missed Rivers throughout the mock. I am on record very high on him (for a couple years now). However, nevermind the PSU connection, I think they have their cover 2 WLB spot covered nicely and Rivers is very purely designed for that role. Connor could move Lenon to the strong side (already rumored to be in the works if they find a suitable MLB), and take over the middle. It makes sense to me, but I am likely in error having Rivers so low. Thanks. Good comments.

Raiders will draft DL or OL, not RB.

War Ensemble said:

Raiders will draft DL or OL, not RB.

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See post #20.

Very nice work. However, for the Titans' sake, I hope WRs and DEs don't go at this rate.

CC, glad to see you have the Pokes taking positions of both current and future need versus drafting like they are running a FF team. Have you heard rumors that the team is considering moving up for Kelly, if he is available? WR and CB/S would work also. This Kelly rumor is catching some steam.

I would love to see the Lions take Connor to play MLB...don't think Rivers falls that far in the draft... but I think they have to address CB.

Good work.

Great Job CC...I tried to do mine today, and just had too many holes. I am still looking for a trade partner for the Patriots pick! I had Glenn Dorsey sliding and thinking the Broncos would move up to get him. Anyway...

If Miami or Atlanta doesn't take him, I could see Matt Ryan moving down in the draft like you have predicted. The draft was supposed to be setup to help those teams that need help, but tying up so much money in top draft picks justs straps the team that much more. QB is definitely one of those position you want to make sure that you get the right guy. I think Arthur Blank would like to have a new face for the franchise, and with the signing of Turner, and the release of both Harrington and Leftwich I think there is a place for Ryan.

If Ryan does free fall, someone might move up to get him like the Browns did for Quinn. Teams that could use his services: Dolphins, Chiefs, Bears. Dolphins and the Chiefs might not want to use a top five pick and pay top five money, but maybe could trade into the first round again to get him. With the likes of Brian Brohm. Joe Flacco, and Chad Henne, teams that need QBs might just wait till the second round.

Anyone know the condition of Drew Stanton? I was thinking that if Matt Ryan does start spiraling down the draft, maybe the Lions would be interested. I don't remember how badly hurt Stanton was.

cstu said:

12. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Denver Broncos

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As the owner of the 1.01, I hope you're right.

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Not a huge fan of Mendenhall but I would think he would be a more immediate fantasy producer than Stewart

Ridgelake said:

DonFue said:

Parcell's won't be able to move the #1 pick so he'll take the best pass-rusher in the draft. Vernon Gholston! Maybe.

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Since we're on the topic of unusual drafts, and this is a scenario that I've been thinking about for awhile, I thought I'd add a little bit more to it.Here's a blub that I wrote on this subject in a previous mock. One crazy thought I had for Miami. Gholston. Going off memory, Tuna has used first roudn picks on OLBs: Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie McGinest, John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, and Bobby Carpenter. IIRC, LT, Banks, and McGinnest were all top 5 picks. Another top 10 LB Tuna pick was James Farrior.

There's also this link to a post I made a couple of years ago outlining Parcells' draft history in teh 1st and 2nd rounds. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=223759

So there's some significant basis for Tuna going OLB in the Top 5. With his Top 5 picks, he's gone LT, Banks, Bledsoe, McGinnest, and Newman. Three of them are OLBs. Its a position that Tuna values HIGHLY.

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The odds of Gholston just went up a touch. Not saying they are high. But they went up. According to this link from Foxsports, Gholston ran a 4.58 40 at his pro day. But even more ridiculously impressive, a 42 inch verticall!!! That is freaking ridiculous!!!! The explosive power needed to do that is astronimical for a guy almost 270. A true physical beast this guy is.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7893134?MSNHPHMA

Ridgelake said:

Ridgelake said:

DonFue said:

Parcell's won't be able to move the #1 pick so he'll take the best pass-rusher in the draft. Vernon Gholston! Maybe.

Click to expand...

Since we're on the topic of unusual drafts, and this is a scenario that I've been thinking about for awhile, I thought I'd add a little bit more to it.Here's a blub that I wrote on this subject in a previous mock. One crazy thought I had for Miami. Gholston. Going off memory, Tuna has used first roudn picks on OLBs: Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, Willie McGinest, John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, and Bobby Carpenter. IIRC, LT, Banks, and McGinnest were all top 5 picks. Another top 10 LB Tuna pick was James Farrior.

There's also this link to a post I made a couple of years ago outlining Parcells' draft history in teh 1st and 2nd rounds. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=223759

So there's some significant basis for Tuna going OLB in the Top 5. With his Top 5 picks, he's gone LT, Banks, Bledsoe, McGinnest, and Newman. Three of them are OLBs. Its a position that Tuna values HIGHLY.

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The odds of Gholston just went up a touch. Not saying they are high. But they went up. According to this link from Foxsports, Gholston ran a 4.58 40 at his pro day. But even more ridiculously impressive, a 42 inch verticall!!! That is freaking ridiculous!!!! The explosive power needed to do that is astronimical for a guy almost 270. A true physical beast this guy is.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7893134?MSNHPHMA

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You could be on to something here. Who Dat is catching up on this stuff and he has the same idea in PMs. Gohlston is certainly a perfect profile for Parcells (as is Chris Long). I just made a case for Gohlston going before Jake Long based on their lopsided matchup. Mario was all over the top five to seven picks in March before going first overall. Hmmmmm.... I feel another revision coming.

reading between the lines of a recent jim thomas chat, he seems to think gholston is a fast riser on the rams board...

i'm starting to think the rams go chris long or gholston... in other words, STL likely gets gholston...

thomas thinks the rams now have medical concerns with dorsey...

either WR/CB most likely pick early in round two...

* some interesting trade scenarios had rams moving down a few picks, scooping up extra later round pick/s, & still get gholston or ellis... now there is thought to be some doubt about whether gholston would make it past the raiders at 1.04?

a sub 4.6 40 & 42" VJ at near 270 is an unusual humanoid...

Bob Magaw said:

reading between the lines of a recent jim thomas chat, he seems to think gholston is a fast riser on the rams board...i'm starting to think the rams go chris long or gholston... in other words, STL likely gets gholston...thomas thinks the rams now have medical concerns with dorsey...either WR/CB most likely pick early in round two...* some interesting trade scenarios had rams moving down a few picks, scooping up extra later round pick/s, & still get gholston or ellis... now there is thought to be some doubt about whether gholston would make it past the raiders at 1.04?a sub 4.6 40 & 42" VJ at near 270 is an unusual humanoid...

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I have Vernon Gholston going #2 to the Rams...Jake Long #5 to the Chiefs...Sedrick Ellis #6 to the Jets...Glenn Dorsey going #7 to the Broncos (trade with Patriots)With no clear cut #1 pick, it makes it tough for the Dolphins to trade out of the position, and Chris Long seems to be everyone's safe pick. With six weeks to go, this picture should clear up. Do you think if the Dolphins can't trade out, they try to have the pick signed prior to the draft (like Texas did)?

Max Power said:

Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson on the same team? Would that be the smallest starting WR combo ever?

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Duper and Clayton were each smurfs at 5'9" also. This makes it hard for a QB as we have seen the tall guys have an advantage in the end zone (although Marino did pretty well)

Any of you guys that consider draft mocking the Panthers...please remember...Wahle got released...and just yesterday Hartwig got released. Very likely in this crop of OTs that Wharton moves to LG and a rookie stud OT is taken with the first pick. But if they feel they can still get the pick in a tradedown...they will.

My bet...and in this order of importance

OT

DE/RB

S (free safety)

If they can get some picks out of a tradedown...I could see a WR picked up in the 2nd/3rd.

Denver paper's have The Broncos going OT at Pick #12.

If Stewart is available at #12....NOW, THAT WOULD BE INTERESTING!

What ever happened to your draft contest last year?