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Top 5 Players you are avoiding (1 Viewer)

Julius Jones... the line just ain't that good, and neither is he.

Derrick Anderson... have you seen their schedule this year?

Donovan McNabb... west coast offense with mini-WRs just don't do a lot for a QB.

Lee Evans... so tell me again what's different from last year?

Javon Walker... unless, of course, he can learn to run with using his knees.

 
i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen. And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?
You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.
I don't remember exactly what happened with Portis last year, but in spite of his season ending totals, he seemed to come up small for me week after week for the first half of the season(non-ppr). I thought I looked like a genius nabbing him in the third round of a 12 team league, but I'm pretty sure he kept me out of the playoffs with a few sub-mediocre games(head to head scoring).
Portis ranked 4th last year, and as a thrird round pick was a steal. If you lost games or didn't make the playoffs, it had nothing to do with Portis. With last year being a down year for RBs, I don't see how he cost you anything . . . he only not one really low scoring game (vs DAL).
Thank you David...who wants to load Portis' stats into say the previous 5-10 years and see where he would have finished in each of those seasons. I just think he is going to be over valued in most leagues this year.
 
i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen. And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?
You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.
I don't remember exactly what happened with Portis last year, but in spite of his season ending totals, he seemed to come up small for me week after week for the first half of the season(non-ppr). I thought I looked like a genius nabbing him in the third round of a 12 team league, but I'm pretty sure he kept me out of the playoffs with a few sub-mediocre games(head to head scoring).
Portis ranked 4th last year, and as a thrird round pick was a steal. If you lost games or didn't make the playoffs, it had nothing to do with Portis. With last year being a down year for RBs, I don't see how he cost you anything . . . he only not one really low scoring game (vs DAL).
I don't know, man. This hardly looks too impressive after the fact:Opp/Yards/TD/FF Pounts(nonPPR)@PHI- 69 rush/7rec - 1TD - 12ptsDET - 72 rush/19rec - 0TD - 8pts@GB - 64 rush/25 rec - 0TD - 8pts@NE - 27 rush/54rec - 0TD - 7pts@DAL = 36 Rush/9rec - 0TD - 3pts@TB - 68 rush/33 rec - 0TD - 9ptsBUF - 50 rush/10 rec - 1TD - 12ptsCHI - 36 Rush/86 rec - 0TD - 9pts
You're gonna have to list his 2nd 1/2 if you want me to take your posting w/ any more than a grain of salt. Portis is on my target list as an ADP of about RB 10-12. Unfortunately his owner won't sell.My QB, Carson Palmer, I can't sell. Nobody's biting. He may be top 5 talent, but w/ C.J.'s issues, Housh's contract and the soon-to-fall apart running game, he'd be bottom 5 situation if it weren't for garbage time.I happily delt Ronnie Brown. I don't believe he's "injury prone" but I'm an Auburn fan and huge supporter of RB. A knee injury like his is a two year recovery, and he'll be at 0.8 years by season's opening. He'll get enough carries to make Ricky worth very little, and vice-versa. Full RBBC. Fred Taylor this year, and won't be hitting his stride 'till mid-season next year. How old will he be by then? Dynasty-avoid list, especially at his ADP. Not quite sold on MJD either. Michael Turner w/ more opps to me. No basis for my opinion, 'cause that's all it is.C.J. got the boot from me this year. No need explaining. Huge week, nothing, nothing, nothing... huge week. That and he's #####ing like a frigid sophomore who got dumped the night before prom.TE, Winslow. Stallworth added, and yet another surgery. How long can he stand the pain?Honorable Mention - Michael Turner. A lock for a big % of the carries in Atlants w/ one big problem... he's in Atlanta. ?s about him carrying the load aside, I don't like things down in GA.
 
1 Ronnie Brown - coming off torn ACL, history isn't kind

2 Michael Turner - bad OL, with questionable QBs = crowded line. 300 carries for a 1000, not good enough

3 Brandon Jacobs - RBBC with Bradshaw, not going to win me money

4 Dwayne Bowe - rookie hype, still Gonzo's team. This team is oober conservative to count on pass option #2. Will kill you certain weeks

5 Ryan Grant - i think Brandon Jackson could do just as well, too risky for my first round pick

 
Per FBG redraft rankings. Won't draft them as high as they'll go.

Of the top 12 QBs:

1. Brady - won't chase 2007 stats. Good, but not nearly #1 and first round good.

3. Brees - Saints invested in defense, if it gels the Saints will lessen the air attack.

7. McNabb - health reasons. If you take him, you have to take an early back-up.

8. Hasselbeck - a lack of WRs scare me plenty. Can't buy into that as my #1 QB.

9. Anderson - not a believer. Nice story and all, but just not to my liking as a #1.

Of the top 24 RBs:

8. Barber - can he can handle a full season as the top dog? Let someone else see.

12. Grant - no Favre. Has to prove it to me that he can go it alone. Not my #1 RB.

14. Bush - last I checked, Duece was still going to be on the roster. It's non-PPR.

16. Brown - the ACL scares me. Loss of Cameron does too. All Dolphins scare me.

20. Graham - Can't buy into the ranking with Dunn around. Replaceable type of guy.

Of the top 24 WRs:

4. Edwards - don't believe in Anderson at all. Quinn would be a setback this year.

11. Burress - had 12 YDs last year. Doubt that happens again. Back to the usual 8.

15. Bowe - too high for a sophomore WR. Like him long term, but not in redraft.

17. Roy W - top 35 production at top 15 prices. Let someone else buy into Stanton.

18. Jennings - no Favre. Won't sniff 10 TDs. Not enough receptions for the high rank.

 
QB:

Leinart: Don't care what 'value'. Looked like a David Carr/Rob Johnson clone in 2007.

Carson Palmer: I'll let someone else deal with that mess.

Vince Young: Still no weapons?

RB:

Willie Parker. I'll take Fred Taylor many rounds later as their roles will be identical.

Kevin Smith: He'll be an afterthought before the Lions can block.

Matt Forte: Good luck rook.

Ronnie Brown: I see at best 60/40 for him this year.

WR:

Jennings

Roy Williams

Larry Fitzgerald:

TE:

Gates (At this time of this post in May, too risky to take for 2008)

Vernon Davis (Some athletic freaks just aren't great football players. Davis is one of those guys)

 
i think you are being kinda unrealistic here. I haven't seen Portis taken in the top5 of any redraft. His ADP seems to be 7-10 from what i can tell. The top 5 seems to be some variation of ADP, LT, Westbrook, Stephen Jackson, and Addai in all leagues i have seen. And what is your reasoning for not including a players stats in the FF playoffs?
You have to actually make the playoffs to use a guy. A lot of players have buried owners over the years with slow starts or simply not producing until late in the season.
I don't remember exactly what happened with Portis last year, but in spite of his season ending totals, he seemed to come up small for me week after week for the first half of the season(non-ppr). I thought I looked like a genius nabbing him in the third round of a 12 team league, but I'm pretty sure he kept me out of the playoffs with a few sub-mediocre games(head to head scoring).
Portis ranked 4th last year, and as a thrird round pick was a steal. If you lost games or didn't make the playoffs, it had nothing to do with Portis. With last year being a down year for RBs, I don't see how he cost you anything . . . he only not one really low scoring game (vs DAL).
I don't know, man. This hardly looks too impressive after the fact:Opp/Yards/TD/FF Pounts(nonPPR)@PHI- 69 rush/7rec - 1TD - 12ptsDET - 72 rush/19rec - 0TD - 8pts@GB - 64 rush/25 rec - 0TD - 8pts@NE - 27 rush/54rec - 0TD - 7pts@DAL = 36 Rush/9rec - 0TD - 3pts@TB - 68 rush/33 rec - 0TD - 9ptsBUF - 50 rush/10 rec - 1TD - 12ptsCHI - 36 Rush/86 rec - 0TD - 9pts
Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.
 
Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.
Those are nice stats David.How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT. A poster put down Portis' stats in a non PPR league last season and they really are not that impressive. You also said RB had a down year last year...correct and I wonder how Portis '07 would stack up in 2002-2006...I doubt he cracks the top 5, maybe even have a hard time cracking the top 10 with his '07 stats.The fact is he has never looked like he did in Denver, rarely rips off those long TD we saw early in his career, and he has a lot of mileage on him.
 
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Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.
Those are nice stats David.How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT. A poster put down Portis' stats in a non PPR league last season and they really are not that impressive. You also said RB had a down year last year...correct and I wonder how Portis '07 would stack up in 2002-2006...I doubt he cracks the top 5, maybe even have a hard time cracking the top 10 with his '07 stats.The fact is he has never looked like he did in Denver, rarely rips off those long TD we saw early in his career, and he has a lot of mileage on him.
I listed what Portis did every game liast year in my post in 0 PPR leagues. He scored a total of 238 points. In the time that he was in the league, that would have ranked him: 9th, 7th, 8th, 6th, 8th, and 4th. (If Portis scored more points than that I bumped him up one notch since he couldn't rank in two slots at once.)We (collectively) are debating different things. One, whether Portis was a bust getting drafted in the 3rd round last year (to which I say no way). Second, whether Portis is overvalued heading into 2008. He's currently the #6 RB in the latest FBG rankings. I don't see that being tremendously out of line (although I agree he's not the same player he was in DEN).Third, whether his workload makes him more or less likely to breakdown. Drinen did a study on this and actually found that players with big workloads were more likely to maintain a bigger workload. Now that is not to say that players with more carries don't get hurt, and that's also not to say that players won't slip production wise. But they keep getting the ball, which as a fantasy owner is what concerns me the most.And lastly, you (MOP specifically) are using more Spidey sense than supporting argument to suggest that Portis will be overvalued. That's fine, but his track record speaks to a different argument.I'm also not disagreeing with you in terms of his outlook for this season, but I would think that having Portis outside the Top 10 would be going against the grain and there is no "good reason" to think that way. He's been very consistent.
 
Andy Dufresne said:
1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.2. Marc Bulger - fool me once shame...3. Todd Heap - fool me three times...4. Santana Moss - two new rooks and hasn't been good in a year and a half.5. Frank Gore/MJD/Ryan Grant/Earnest Graham - one year wonders
Ryan Grant? I don't see that at all.
5 Ryan Grant - i think Brandon Jackson could do just as well, too risky for my first round pick
Jackson? Are you serious?I can see not drafting him in the first, but Jackson?For me anyone playing for NE not named Brady or MossAny RB under Shanahan.
 
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Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.
Those are nice stats David.How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT. A poster put down Portis' stats in a non PPR league last season and they really are not that impressive. You also said RB had a down year last year...correct and I wonder how Portis '07 would stack up in 2002-2006...I doubt he cracks the top 5, maybe even have a hard time cracking the top 10 with his '07 stats.The fact is he has never looked like he did in Denver, rarely rips off those long TD we saw early in his career, and he has a lot of mileage on him.
I listed what Portis did every game liast year in my post in 0 PPR leagues. He scored a total of 238 points. In the time that he was in the league, that would have ranked him: 9th, 7th, 8th, 6th, 8th, and 4th. (If Portis scored more points than that I bumped him up one notch since he couldn't rank in two slots at once.)We (collectively) are debating different things. One, whether Portis was a bust getting drafted in the 3rd round last year (to which I say no way). Second, whether Portis is overvalued heading into 2008. He's currently the #6 RB in the latest FBG rankings. I don't see that being tremendously out of line (although I agree he's not the same player he was in DEN).Third, whether his workload makes him more or less likely to breakdown. Drinen did a study on this and actually found that players with big workloads were more likely to maintain a bigger workload. Now that is not to say that players with more carries don't get hurt, and that's also not to say that players won't slip production wise. But they keep getting the ball, which as a fantasy owner is what concerns me the most.And lastly, you (MOP specifically) are using more Spidey sense than supporting argument to suggest that Portis will be overvalued. That's fine, but his track record speaks to a different argument.I'm also not disagreeing with you in terms of his outlook for this season, but I would think that having Portis outside the Top 10 would be going against the grain and there is no "good reason" to think that way. He's been very consistent.
"Spiderman, Spiderman, Does whatever a spider can Spins a web, any size, Catches thieves just like flies Look Out! Here comes the Spiderman."Good stuff as always David.
 
Jackson? Are you serious?I can see not drafting him in the first, but Jackson?For me anyone playing for NE not named Brady or MossAny RB under Shanahan.
In pre season and the beginning of the year the GB offense had more problems than just RB. Not taking anything away from Grant, but part of his success was timing. The o-line came together along with the whole offensive scheme, Grant was geat but there was more to the picture. They knew Jackson was a little raw coming in and he also looked a lot better later in the year, don't be surprised if he is a factor this year.
 
How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.
TomlinsonLewisJamesF. TaylorGreen
Edge, Fred Taylor, and Ahman Green...not the kind of company you want to be in at this point IMHO
Hmmm . . . which one does not belong:Portis (27 years old by opening day)Edge (30)Taylor (32)Green (31)I also find it intersting that the guys on the list with LT with the heavy workloads ranked 1, 4, 6, 10, 18, and 64 with Green the only that was banged up. That's 4 guys in the Top 10 and another guy that was a Pro Bowl player. Not sure that last year was the year to hang your hat on the extended heavy workload card.
 
Jackson? Are you serious?I can see not drafting him in the first, but Jackson?For me anyone playing for NE not named Brady or MossAny RB under Shanahan.
In pre season and the beginning of the year the GB offense had more problems than just RB. Not taking anything away from Grant, but part of his success was timing. The o-line came together along with the whole offensive scheme, Grant was geat but there was more to the picture. They knew Jackson was a little raw coming in and he also looked a lot better later in the year, don't be surprised if he is a factor this year.
I like Grant and I own him in a keeper league but I'll definitely be looking to deal him if the right deal comes along. I think many will see the gaudy 2nd half numbers he put up and not take into account that he had a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch. The average strength of the defense during his starts last year was 20 so the stars were aligned for him. The Favre factor is HUGE IMO and his departure cannot be overstated. His ability to stretch the field with deep passes opened up big time running lanes which Grant was able to exploit with some nice big runs. I'm not nearly as high on Rodgers as most and think he will struggle which in turn have defenses creep up, close some of those big gaps which may cause Grant to struggle. I still think he'll be the workhorse, he'll get the carries, TD's, etc. but a lot of those 30+ yard runs will be tougher to come by.I think Grant will be hard pressed to come near last years pace and may be a good time to maximize his value and offer him up to teams who may need a RB.
 
How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.
TomlinsonLewis

James

F. Taylor

Green
Edge, Fred Taylor, and Ahman Green...not the kind of company you want to be in at this point IMHO
Over the last 2 seasons Fred has over 2,600 yards and 11 TDs in 30 games averaging 5.2 per carry. He closed last season with 5 straight 100+ rushing yard games. While he certainly isn't pushing anyone's top 10 RBs, he's been excellent value recently and based on current draft position projections could be again this season. Fred gets no love. :cry:
 
How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.
TomlinsonLewisJamesF. TaylorGreen
Edge, Fred Taylor, and Ahman Green...not the kind of company you want to be in at this point IMHO
Sorry, but as pointed out, I completely disagree. I think this is great company to be in. The fact that Edge and Fred are STILL getting large loads and being productive with them even at their ages is encouraging that Portis has a good chance to do the same.
 
How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.
TomlinsonLewisJamesF. TaylorGreen
Edge, Fred Taylor, and Ahman Green...not the kind of company you want to be in at this point IMHO
Sorry, but as pointed out, I completely disagree. I think this is great company to be in. The fact that Edge and Fred are STILL getting large loads and being productive with them even at their ages is encouraging that Portis has a good chance to do the same.
It's not unusual....the "old vets" are cast aside year after year for the new shiny pennies which enables guys like me to stay consistent year after year....
 
Here were Portis' weekly scoring totals from last year 0 PPR:

15.8, 13.6, 15.7, 9.1, 8.9, 17.7, 8.1, 25.6, 15.7, 4.5, 10.1, 12.0, 12.2, 18.6, 25.2, 25.1, 8.0

As for MOP's assertion that he will be overvalue, he's ranked 4, 5, 11, 6, 36, and 4 over his career. The year where he ranked 36th he missed have the season.

Total points wise, he's scored 289, 275, 204, 246, 111, and 238 points. If you double his 111 points from 2006 to account for only playing in 8 games, that would have been 222.

So I ask MOP, which RBs out there have produced at a 200+ point level for 6 straight years? I'll save you the trouble . . . Tomlinson and no one else.
Those are nice stats David.How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.

A poster put down Portis' stats in a non PPR league last season and they really are not that impressive. You also said RB had a down year last year...correct and I wonder how Portis '07 would stack up in 2002-2006...I doubt he cracks the top 5, maybe even have a hard time cracking the top 10 with his '07 stats.

The fact is he has never looked like he did in Denver, rarely rips off those long TD we saw early in his career, and he has a lot of mileage on him.
Those stats are not PPR either, the previous poster put rushing totals only, no receiving yards included I believe. It was slanted to make Portis look bad.This is what he did last year in my league, which is NOT ppr.

TOTAL: 212 1:16 2:12 3:15 4:B 5:4 6:6 7:17 8:7 9:25 10:15 11:3 12:5 13:12 14:11 15:18 16:22 17:24

5 games under 10 points. He definitely did not hurt his FF owners. And no, he wasn't on my team. But I did say before last season that he was my ranked #2 back, because I thought he was one of the safest bets to finish top-5.

 
How many RB starting in the NFL have the mileage that Portis has...1700 carries? I'm betting LT is pobably one of a select few and Portis is no LT.
TomlinsonLewis

James

F. Taylor

Green
Edge, Fred Taylor, and Ahman Green...not the kind of company you want to be in at this point IMHO
Over the last 2 seasons Fred has over 2,600 yards and 11 TDs in 30 games averaging 5.2 per carry. He closed last season with 5 straight 100+ rushing yard games. While he certainly isn't pushing anyone's top 10 RBs, he's been excellent value recently and based on current draft position projections could be again this season. Fred gets no love. :lmao:
Game logs during a major part of the regular FF season last year.6/16

16/56

17/84

16/51

I'm still searching for TD to help him here...

6/90

11/55

24/68

13/54

16/45...and a TD

Dude, he was not starter material last year in FF...give me a break.

 
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1. Marion Barber - going in the top-10 in most drafts, way overvalued

2. Steven Jackson - doubt he stays healthy

3. Laurence Maroney - NE's offense changes so much, he'd be on the bench when he scores, and active when they run 5 times the entire game

4. Derek Anderson - I don't believe he is as good as last year, and some view him as a top-10 QB LOL

5. TEN WRs

 
Dude, he was not starter material last year in FF...give me a break.
Last year his start wasn't good, but neither was MJDs - do you really want to use that argument against Fred? Or do you want to acknowledge JAX just wasn't running well early? After the BYE MJD broke out for a couple games, but he had more games <5 points than Taylor did, at least in my league. I'm just not so sure how relevant last season is to gauging Taylor's FF production.The year prior Taylor was a very solid #2 RB.
 
LT - It's tough to bet against LT and so far you'd have been wrong to do so. But he's had a ton of carries and I just would not want to be the guy that takes him #1 overall only to watch him get hurt.

Steven Jackson - This team is going to be a bad team again. Mark my words. Bruce is gone, Holt is getting old, and the O-line is still a mess. Add in that Jackson seems to get dinged up every year and I'll be staying away from Jackson.

Frank Gore - Another bad team. Yeah, I know that good players can still thrive on bad teams, but I'm just not feeling this one.

McGahee - One, I just don't like him as a Bills fan. Two, again, another team I think is going to be bad. The QB situation is a mess and the O-line isn't all that great either. My guess is that Flacco is the starter at some point and the struggles of a rookie won't help any. Frankly, I can't believe that Ogden hasn't retired yet as well.

Reggie Bush - He's just not that good folks. He can do a few amazing things, but it's pretty clear that his skills just haven't translated to the NFL all that well. Whether it's an inability to study the playbook, read defenses, or something else, he's just not a fantasy star at all. He finished behind guys like Kenny Watson, Justin Fargas and Thomas Jones last year in fantasy scoring. I know he was hurt some of last year, but in 2 seasons he's averaging just 3.7 ypc. For a guy that's supposed to be ridiculously explosive, that's a really low number. Even more alarming is that his longest carry is for just 22 yards. Ouch. FBGs have him ranked 24th overall in redraft non-PPR scoring, and that's just way too high.

 
This was actually a tough list for me to put together since I really don't like heading into a draft thinking "I will never take this guy under any circumstances." If the value is there I will usually take the plunge. That is why I was considering a guy like Todd Heap for my list, but then I thought to myself if he somehow slides to the 12th round or something like that there is no way I am going to pass him up.

Here are five guys I am not going to touch this year though, period:

1. Chad Johnson -- I had TO on my team in 2005 and CJ's situation looks like it may be a repeat of that -- with Drew Rosenhaus and all. I am going to be smart and avoid the circus in Cincy this year.

2. Lawrence Maroney -- I have no idea whether the Pats are going to continue to throw first and run second, or give Maroney more carries as they did at the end of the season; Sammy Morris coming back and the Pats looking at Kevin Jones further clouds Maroney's value to me. Finally, he is injury prone and I don't feel like trying to figure out every Sunday whether Belichick is going to play him or not.

3. Cedric Benson -- Didn't get it done last year when he had the chance. Now he is coming off a knee injury and Forte is going to take touches away. The Bears offense is a mess anyway with Grossman or Orton at QB, and its two starting WR's leaving in the offseason.

4. DeAngelo Williams -- Couldn't unseat Foster last year. I have a feeling Stewart gets the vast majority of carries this year a la Stephen Davis from a few years ago. At best. he is in a RBBC with Stewart. I am done trying to figure this guy out, let someone else deal with him.

5. Javon Walker -- Inexperienced QB and his knees are shot. His best days are well behind him. I would rather take a chance on someone with some upside in my drafts.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
 
I really hope you guys don't think Chad Johnson is going to sit out...

In SSL2 I got him @ 3.11 WR15. I'm taking a shot on him there 10 times out of 10.

 
A. Tom Brady -- he'll go in the top half of round 1 in most redrafts. His #'s will fall off greatly from last season, much like Peyton Manning's did after his record breaking season. From a value perspective, there may not be a worse pick.

B. Willie Parker -- coming off a major injury. Pitt drafted a stud rb who will vulture carries. Steelers lost their best olineman. WP's best days are behind him, and he won't get near the # of carries he has had the last couple seasons.

C. Laurence Maroney -- Pats are full blown RBBC. Maroney's goalline opportunities will be limited. His ADP will be way too high to justify taking him.

D. Ravens, Vikings, and Titans QB's and WR's -- Avoiding any qb or wr from these 3 teams like I avoid people with tuburculosis.

E. Greg Jennings -- His ADP will be way too high for what his true value is. And the Aaron Rodgers factor.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
When you have players that get out of the chute HOT, meaning you have a top5 QB, top5 WR, top5 RB...even if they are exceding expectations and the like, you as the owner are in the driver seat. When Portis, Taylor, LEE EVANS...when these guys start slow you are stuck. People are claiming that Portis is not the reson they didn't make the playoffs...he sure wasn't the reason owners were making the playoffs either. Who the difference makers last season? ADP, Addai, the list is going to be very short...this is a brutal hobby in the fact that just a handful of players at every position are going to make the real difference. Guys that don't perform in weeks 1-12, then suddenly turn it on in weeks 13-17...you are not as likely to make the playoffs with those type of performers. If you cannot recognize that, sorry.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
3. Any Carolina RB: Check the stats under John Fox...it's never a good idea to bank on a Carolina RB4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
3. And Belichick never had a QB throw 50 TDs until Moss showed up. Sometimes you need talented guys, to get big results. They've never had a RB that can sniff the talent of Stewart. What did the Chargers do before LT? Vikings before AD? SF before Gore? You can't be a slave to the past. Otherwise, you will always be chasing stats, and a year behind. 4. FF regular season? Bahahahahahaha. Yeah, lets exclude the FF playoffs, because thats not as important. Lets drop down Portis for going off in the FF playoffs. FF regular season. You gotta be kidding. That's like saying in Weeks 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11 he never had a 100 yard game. Okay, and? And unless you get points for 100 yard games, which most poeple don't, who cares?18 TDs in his last 24 regular season games. He was the 4th best RB last year. 47 catches? 1,600 total yards? 11 TDs? With the Skins, he's been ranked 11th, 6th, 4th among RBs. 2006 he was hurt. And with Denver he was ranked 4th and 5th. So 5 out of 6 years he was a top 12 RB, 4 out of 6 he was top 6RB. One year he was hurt. Come on. Portis is underrated. Once he left Denver, everyone dropped him 10 spots in RB rankings and still hasn't recovered. Portis actually was the victim of Gibbs being a complete and utter failure as a HC the 2nd time around. Gibbs was so bad, he basically gave up all offensive control and brought someone else in the run the show. Running a decent offense, he's been hugely productive. FF regular season. That's hilarious. You basically put your mind to it that you don't like Portis, then figured out a way to exclude a few big games to make a point. Yeah I always check the FF regular season vs FF playoff splits. Man when some guys hit week 14, they really fall off. Week 1-13, champions. Week 14-16, ouch it's a nightmare. Not many people will go for the FF regular/playoff season splits. Especially since it's made up, and no one but us even know it's the FF playoffs. I love that you actually made a post, pointing out Portis is better in the FF playoffs vs the FF regular season. That's awesome. Way to cherry pick stats. Lets use made up deadlines by FF commishes to split an NFL players stats. That's rich. Because Yahoos default league playoffs is week 13, that really has a big effect on NFL RBs. The added pressure really gets to some of them. Oh except Portis, which is why I’m down on him. *lol* Great post, as usual.
You're wasting your breath WRT Portis. In another thread a while back, MOP was arguing that Portis wasn't even a top tier RB2 last season, when he was obviously one of the better RB1, and one of the top value picks in just about every draft.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
When you have players that get out of the chute HOT, meaning you have a top5 QB, top5 WR, top5 RB...even if they are exceding expectations and the like, you as the owner are in the driver seat. When Portis, Taylor, LEE EVANS...when these guys start slow you are stuck. People are claiming that Portis is not the reson they didn't make the playoffs...he sure wasn't the reason owners were making the playoffs either. Who the difference makers last season? ADP, Addai, the list is going to be very short...this is a brutal hobby in the fact that just a handful of players at every position are going to make the real difference. Guys that don't perform in weeks 1-12, then suddenly turn it on in weeks 13-17...you are not as likely to make the playoffs with those type of performers. If you cannot recognize that, sorry.
I don't buy the slow starter myth. More often than not the "slow start" is due to their strength of schedule, see LT/LJ, etc. last year. When it comes to Lee Evans, I didn't buy into his hype due to the fact that 22% of his fantasy production came in one game.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
When you have players that get out of the chute HOT, meaning you have a top5 QB, top5 WR, top5 RB...even if they are exceding expectations and the like, you as the owner are in the driver seat. When Portis, Taylor, LEE EVANS...when these guys start slow you are stuck. People are claiming that Portis is not the reson they didn't make the playoffs...he sure wasn't the reason owners were making the playoffs either. Who the difference makers last season? ADP, Addai, the list is going to be very short...this is a brutal hobby in the fact that just a handful of players at every position are going to make the real difference. Guys that don't perform in weeks 1-12, then suddenly turn it on in weeks 13-17...you are not as likely to make the playoffs with those type of performers. If you cannot recognize that, sorry.
MOP -You are revising history with each and every post in this thread. Through Week 12, Portis was averaging 13.1 fantasy ppg which was the 7th best total for RBs. Adding in his performance the rest of the way is what shot him up to #4.Portis was a third round pick in many leagues last year. Getting even the #7 RB at the cost of a RB taken in the RB20s CERTAINLY helped teams make the playoffs. And his totals in the playoffs are the performances that win leagues.You can try and shoot down Portis last year in 87 different ways, but the fact remains he was a great player to have, especially given the lower RB totals.You have a much better case that he is not worth it this year, but as far as 2007 goes you're only digging a bigger hole.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
When you have players that get out of the chute HOT, meaning you have a top5 QB, top5 WR, top5 RB...even if they are exceding expectations and the like, you as the owner are in the driver seat. When Portis, Taylor, LEE EVANS...when these guys start slow you are stuck. People are claiming that Portis is not the reson they didn't make the playoffs...he sure wasn't the reason owners were making the playoffs either. Who the difference makers last season? ADP, Addai, the list is going to be very short...this is a brutal hobby in the fact that just a handful of players at every position are going to make the real difference. Guys that don't perform in weeks 1-12, then suddenly turn it on in weeks 13-17...you are not as likely to make the playoffs with those type of performers. If you cannot recognize that, sorry.
MOP -You are revising history with each and every post in this thread. Through Week 12, Portis was averaging 13.1 fantasy ppg which was the 7th best total for RBs. Adding in his performance the rest of the way is what shot him up to #4.Portis was a third round pick in many leagues last year. Getting even the #7 RB at the cost of a RB taken in the RB20s CERTAINLY helped teams make the playoffs. And his totals in the playoffs are the performances that win leagues.You can try and shoot down Portis last year in 87 different ways, but the fact remains he was a great player to have, especially given the lower RB totals.You have a much better case that he is not worth it this year, but as far as 2007 goes you're only digging a bigger hole.
Its hard to take the guys opinions seriously (and he sure has a lot of them!) when he is making this bad of an argument on this obvious of a point.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
4. Clinton Portis: IN FF regular season over the past 2 seasons he has broken the 100 yard rushing mark a total of 3 times...in 2 years.
might want to check your stats on Portis
travdogg said:
WR: Andre Johnson, seems to be a consensus top-5 WR, despite never having a top-10 season.
dude had 103 catches with David Carr throwing to him. Last season he was 2nd to Randy Moss in PPG (of course he was injured)Andre Johnson has a very high ceiling but definite bust potential due to injuries.

as for me, I echo the sentiments regarding Dallas Clark, Roy Williams, and Javon Walker. They are on my "nope, not gonna do it" list. If Clark falls low enough, I'll pick him up, but no way do I touch him as a top-5 TE.
I count 3 games where he had 100 yds rushing from weeks 1-13 during the past 2 seasons...sorry but I discount stats that would only be good in the playoffs.
I guess you just don't expect to make the playoffs. Some of us do.
When you have players that get out of the chute HOT, meaning you have a top5 QB, top5 WR, top5 RB...even if they are exceding expectations and the like, you as the owner are in the driver seat. When Portis, Taylor, LEE EVANS...when these guys start slow you are stuck. People are claiming that Portis is not the reson they didn't make the playoffs...he sure wasn't the reason owners were making the playoffs either. Who the difference makers last season? ADP, Addai, the list is going to be very short...this is a brutal hobby in the fact that just a handful of players at every position are going to make the real difference. Guys that don't perform in weeks 1-12, then suddenly turn it on in weeks 13-17...you are not as likely to make the playoffs with those type of performers. If you cannot recognize that, sorry.
I have always considered you to be one of the best posters in the pool, but this time what you are arguing is pretty dumb. Players don't all of a sudden turn it on in weeks 13-17. If a player has better stats in those weeks there can be numerous reasons such as playing a bad team, OL playing better, or just luck. Clinton Portis will likely be a first round pick this year, and first round picks aren't the guys that get you to the playoffs. From last year, 3 players at best taken in the first round would have gotten you to the playoffs (LT, Westbrook, ADP?) while the other 13 picks of the first round of a 16 team league would not have taken anyone to the playoffs. So essentially, if you don't have one of the top 1-3 picks, it is rare that you will be able to take someone in the first round who you can piggy back to the playoffs.

 
Last edited:
Beefeaters said:
Andy Dufresne said:
1. Chad Johnson - not a tenth as good as he thinks he is.
I honestly believe that he has never recovered from THE HIT he took from Russell in the 2006 Cleveland game. They say that the first time a man takes a giant hit like that, that it changes him forever.
If by never recovered you meant the following year; he went on to have the most targets of his career, most yards of his career, 3rd most REC of his career and 4th most TD's of his career, then I agree :(
:shrug: Fair enough... it's just my opinion that he used to play fearlessly, but now seems to have a timidity about him on the field. And on a purely emotional level, I believe that something is broken inside of him. He will be drafted more highly than where I would ever take him.
 
Players that I will most likely not have on my roster due to my opinion of real vs perceived value...

Tom Brady

Derek Anderson

Eli Manning

Willie Parker

Ahmad Bradshaw

Addai

Michael Turner

Ryan Grant

Earnest Graham

Marques Colston

Wes Welker

TJ Housh

I'm sure there are more, but this already exceeds the five by quite a bit...

 
Riffraff said:
3. Brees - Saints invested in defense, if it gels the Saints will lessen the air attack.
Why does a stout D = run more? Teams can pass the ball too and if it gets picked or they turn the ball over then that improved D is supposed to go get the ball back. Besides, this assumes that the D will be gelling from the get go. It may take a full season for the D to be worth anything...
 
skillz said:
3. Cedric Benson -- Didn't get it done last year when he had the chance. Now he is coming off a knee injury and Forte is going to take touches away. The Bears offense is a mess anyway with Grossman or Orton at QB, and its two starting WR's leaving in the offseason.
Uh, I believe this guy is implied on everyone's list. No need to waste one of your other 5 to list him....
 
Riffraff said:
3. Brees - Saints invested in defense, if it gels the Saints will lessen the air attack.
Why does a stout D = run more? Teams can pass the ball too and if it gets picked or they turn the ball over then that improved D is supposed to go get the ball back. Besides, this assumes that the D will be gelling from the get go. It may take a full season for the D to be worth anything...
I guess if you have a good defense the assumption is that you aren't going to be shooting it out and amassing meaningless yards/TD's late in the game and may be looking to run out the clock with a ball control offense.
 
Riffraff said:
3. Brees - Saints invested in defense, if it gels the Saints will lessen the air attack.
Why does a stout D = run more? Teams can pass the ball too and if it gets picked or they turn the ball over then that improved D is supposed to go get the ball back. Besides, this assumes that the D will be gelling from the get go. It may take a full season for the D to be worth anything...
I guess if you have a good defense the assumption is that you aren't going to be shooting it out and amassing meaningless yards/TD's late in the game and may be looking to run out the clock with a ball control offense.
That's an assumption, and I agree it happens, but it's not an absolute. But that also assumes that they have a strong running game. Deuce is on his last leg. Bush is not a good RB. He's good around the outside and for the dump off, but the dump off doesn't run the clock down like running between the tackles (something Bush is horrible at). So unless, Deuce can return to form, I would argue that the Saints will have to continue to throw the ball late in games just to advance the ball. They may not go for the endzone as much as they would earlier in the game as teams will be playing prevent, but I would think they would still try to push the ball down the field in the air...
 
Well, I already stated it in the OP and above in another post, but........I will try and mention it again.

While any discussion is good, this wasn't meant to be an "overvalued" thread. Those of you listing Brady really didn't bother reading what this was intended to be. No one is going to go out of their way to avoid Brady. I understand that where he's being drafted, you won't reach that high, but there is NOTHING to suggest avoiding him.

Someone like Chad Johnson, on the other hand, is someone that you may choose to avoid even if available far lower than his ADP if you fear he might hold out. Javon Walker might be someone you choose to avoid because you don't trust his knee at all and would much prefer a much lesser but safer WR. McNabb may be someone you are avoiding because you just don't want to deal with the headache of his injuries. Brady doesn't fall on this kind of list at all. As don't a few others.

Not trying to be difficult here, but this was meant to find a few guys that have some red flags so that we can possibly discuss some of those red flags, not guys that are going to be solid players but just taken earlier than you'd take them.

Rant over......carry on, I suppose.

 
skillz said:
3. Cedric Benson -- Didn't get it done last year when he had the chance. Now he is coming off a knee injury and Forte is going to take touches away. The Bears offense is a mess anyway with Grossman or Orton at QB, and its two starting WR's leaving in the offseason.
Uh, I believe this guy is implied on everyone's list. No need to waste one of your other 5 to list him....
Fair enough. You can put Vernon Davis in his spot. He was a huge let down last year and I don't see Martz doing him any favors given his lack of involving a TE in his offense. QB play in SF is also shoddy.
 
Well, I already stated it in the OP and above in another post, but........I will try and mention it again.While any discussion is good, this wasn't meant to be an "overvalued" thread. Those of you listing Brady really didn't bother reading what this was intended to be. No one is going to go out of their way to avoid Brady. I understand that where he's being drafted, you won't reach that high, but there is NOTHING to suggest avoiding him.Someone like Chad Johnson, on the other hand, is someone that you may choose to avoid even if available far lower than his ADP if you fear he might hold out. Javon Walker might be someone you choose to avoid because you don't trust his knee at all and would much prefer a much lesser but safer WR. McNabb may be someone you are avoiding because you just don't want to deal with the headache of his injuries. Brady doesn't fall on this kind of list at all. As don't a few others. Not trying to be difficult here, but this was meant to find a few guys that have some red flags so that we can possibly discuss some of those red flags, not guys that are going to be solid players but just taken earlier than you'd take them.Rant over......carry on, I suppose.
To answer your initial question, I probably will go out of my way NOT to pick the following (for various reasons):Ronnie BrownDonovan McNabbMarvin HarrisonDeAngelo WilliamsLaurence MaroneyAt some point if they fell far enough I would probably have to consider them, but I doubt that would happen.
 
TE, Winslow. Stallworth added, and yet another surgery. How long can he stand the pain?
You mean Winslow who had a routine scope and should be fine for OTA's? He actually put it off so he could go to the Pro Bowl. He's also the guy with the heavily incentive laiden contract that doesn't pay squat if he's in street clothes on Sunday. Oh, and he's hoping for a contract extension. Yeah, that guy I would avoid. He's one of the best 3 TE's in the league and the signing of a WR is not going to change that status unless of course Stallworth can grow 4 inches and put on 50 pounds and develop better hands. Stallworth has never had more than 70 receptions in a single season and doesn't have near the size Winslow does to do serious damage over the middle the way KWII can....

 
skillz said:
3. Cedric Benson -- Didn't get it done last year when he had the chance. Now he is coming off a knee injury and Forte is going to take touches away. The Bears offense is a mess anyway with Grossman or Orton at QB, and its two starting WR's leaving in the offseason.
Uh, I believe this guy is implied on everyone's list. No need to waste one of your other 5 to list him....
Fair enough. You can put Vernon Davis in his spot. He was a huge let down last year and I don't see Martz doing him any favors given his lack of involving a TE in his offense. QB play in SF is also shoddy.
VD might be the other guy that is implied. I will avoid that guy like I avoid the other thing his initials can represent!?!?
 
I've been critical without offering up my guys:

Rudi Johnson - I think it's his job to lose, but with some of those high draft pick RB's getting healthy, I think he loses it

GB WR's - If they hadn't drafted the QB early I would not be avoiding these guys. I'm guessing that Rodgers is not going to do well which leads to a QB change. That to me is too much turmoil at the helm of that ship

Roddy White - I just don't draft Atlanta WR's. He had a nice year last year, but I don't see that happening again.



Run DMC - Horrible situation to be in and to thin from the waist down. Those spindly legs don't make it look like the guy will have a long NFL career.

Gonzo - I think that age catches up to Gonzo this year. He finished with a great year last year, but I think that is it for this guy.

 

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