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No.Seems like this happens nearly every year. IMO someone will budge. He'll show up, or the Rams will pay. You don't see too may high profile players deciding to miss out on any actual playing time. Perhaps it's possible he's a bit out of shape, and it takes him a few extra weeks to get to mid-season form. You may want to consider Addai or Westbrook over him. But, if You're at 5, you'd be plain silly to pass on him, IMO. And, personally, I'm still taking him at 3.
I never, ever believe holdouts will last long.But I think SJax passing the Aug. 4 deadline to accrue a season towards free agency is ominous. That was the point of no return, the date by which SJax would cave, if he was going to. That seems to indicate to me that there will be no caving from SJax's side, and that he wants a deal from St. Louis. it seems the new deal is more important to him than any pending free agency. So it seems any caving would come from the Rams side, and I can't speculate what their thinking is.But at the very least, I think SJax isn't bluffing.Either that, or he made a very poor decision. Because if he caves, and plays out his deal, he just cost himself millions. His only leverage now is to sit out into the season, and hope the Rams pay up.
IIRC, he could miss 8 regular season games and still be a free agent after this year. I'm not sure where the 8/4 deadline came from. They were talking about this on ESPN and said what I just said.
The 8/4 date has to do with a player voiding an accrued year of NFL eligibility. This is from the Collective Bargaining Agreement. IIRC, it enables StL to tag him cheaper and he loses this year in term of his free agency (UFA).
This echoes what I had heard . . .
As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
The confusion results from the looming voiding of the CBA. IF the owners void the CBA (as is considered very likely), then the number of accrued seasons to qualify for UFA increases from 4 to 6 years within the time window when Jackson would have been UFA under the current CBA. Also, if the CBA is voided, the deadline for earning an accrued season is 30 days prior to the start of the NFL season (which has passed now). Under the current CBA, Jackson could report after missing 8 games and retain his accrued season, if I understand all this tangled skein correctly.
Is it wise to pass on Jackson? It's all relative, what position of the draft are you talking about?I had/have Jackson as my NO. 2 overall behind LT. If I'm drafting this weekend in a big money league and I'm No.2, I probably don't take Jackson right now.If I'm pick NO. 6 and he's sitting there, then maybe I roll the dice on him. It just depends what spot you're talking about.
I thought I had also heard that typically the rules apply that were in force at the time, so items like this would be grandfathered in. I could be misinformed, but I thought the 6 year rule would apply moving forward.
I'm picking #7 and I'm 99% certain no one will take him ahead of me (from talking to other owners) if a deal is not in place.
In my opinion you have to take him at #7 unless something comes out this week stating he is going to miss time for sure. If he plays and you get him at #7...don't screw up the rest of the draft and you'll be tough to contend with.
If I'm picking 7 and he's on the board, I pick him.
That is what I was thinking. I've been spreading the "I wouldn't touch him" story to all my league buddies and it is starting to take hold. I just may have been fooling myself as well.Hopefully I'm not the only one in the Shark Pool thinking about this situation.
Classic play. Well done.
Then you'd really see players get bent over. Ricky Williams once had an inexperienced agent (Master P) negotiate his contract, and let's just say Master P wasn't flooded with calls from other players looking for new representation.As to hurting himself, and his Whole Career by doing this, Jackson knows the score. His 'whole career' isn't going to make it more than one more contract. Big backs that get the ball a lot don't last too long.AngryPatriot said:
Thanks for the clarification. I had read the earlier report. my bad.David Yudkin said:
Camp started 2 weeks ago. He hasn't been there yet....
...the beginning of the season...my bad....
LJ had a 3.5 YPC last yr... he avg less than 20 carriers a game and less than 70 rushing yds a games. LJ was catching a lot of passes, so maybe that put him in the top 10... but he was having a terrible yr compared to 05 & 06.As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.
Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
Kansas City was a COMPLETELY different team in '05 compared to '07. In '05 they were still the FF RB factory that could turn any of our grandparents into fantasy football superstars if they lined up at RB for the Chiefs. In '07 they were a bad team with a bad QB and a bad line.If you expected '05 LJ numbers out of '07 LJ, then that's your own fault because no one in their right mind expected that, and whether or not LJ was going to be any good all on his own was a question in many people's minds long before he held out.LJ had a 3.5 YPC last yr... he avg less than 20 carriers a game and less than 70 rushing yds a games. LJ was catching a lot of passes, so maybe that put him in the top 10... but he was having a terrible yr compared to 05 & 06.As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.
Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
I'm just pointing out that puckalicious is telling me that LJ was giving us top 10 production... I totally avoided LJ last yr, thankfullyKansas City was a COMPLETELY different team in '05 compared to '07. In '05 they were still the FF RB factory that could turn any of our grandparents into fantasy football superstars if they lined up at RB for the Chiefs. In '07 they were a bad team with a bad QB and a bad line.If you expected '05 LJ numbers out of '07 LJ, then that's your own fault because no one in their right mind expected that, and whether or not LJ was going to be any good all on his own was a question in many people's minds long before he held out.LJ had a 3.5 YPC last yr... he avg less than 20 carriers a game and less than 70 rushing yds a games. LJ was catching a lot of passes, so maybe that put him in the top 10... but he was having a terrible yr compared to 05 & 06.As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.
Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
If you still consider SJax a top pick I'm curious who you think is going to blink first and when? Will it be Steven (No Dough...No Show) Jackson or the St Louis (No Show...No Dough) Rams.I think the Rams hold the cards. If this is to be settled quickly then SJax is going to have to pull a "Westbrook" and show up at training camp first and i'll be shocked if that happens anytime soon. This fight could be long and ugly.Mr. Fusion said:
Untrue. Last year Linehan barely played the starters at all in the preseason and the Rams came out of the gate very flat. Linehan has said he wants to get the starters into the action more this year so we don't have a repeat of last year. He really wants Jax there and practicing and well as playing in the pre-season games...
My understanding was that there was still a chance to save this CBA if the owner's concerns were addressed before the November deadline, but I could be wrong there. As things stand, everybody seems to be confused over how UFA is going to function in the coming years...
He was still on pace to be a top ten back. Tom Brady probably has a terrible year compared to 2007.LJ had a 3.5 YPC last yr... he avg less than 20 carriers a game and less than 70 rushing yds a games. LJ was catching a lot of passes, so maybe that put him in the top 10... but he was having a terrible yr compared to 05 & 06.As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.
Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
You guys who keep saying he was on pace for top 10 keep ignoring that 3.5 YPC... LJ sux last yr. Is it so wrong for me to say that... I had him in one league and it was non-ppr; it was awful.He was still on pace to be a top ten back. Tom Brady probably has a terrible year compared to 2007.LJ had a 3.5 YPC last yr... he avg less than 20 carriers a game and less than 70 rushing yds a games. LJ was catching a lot of passes, so maybe that put him in the top 10... but he was having a terrible yr compared to 05 & 06.As mentioned numerous times, LJ was on track for a top 10 finish prior to his injury, projecting out his performance from the difficult part of the season schedule while still getting into proper game shape. Did he underperform his #2/#3 draft pick? YES. But to say he was not worth drafting at ANY spot in the draft is silly.Same holds true for SJax this year. I think he will underperform at the #3 spot. But if he's there in the bottom half of round 1 he represents excellent value and those passing on him then do so at their own peril.
Reminds me a little of Portis last year, everyone was down on him (although not for the same reasons) and he dropped in my league to the 3rd round. I was ready to pull the trigger on him (and should have in the 2nd round) but he went right before my pick and that team won the championship with LT & Portis.
joffer said:
I'm with you joffer. I don't see how the risk is any less unless you already have your RB#1, and you are coming around in the 2nd round. Let someone else roll that dice until he signs.Yes and I was pointing out that even players that have bad seasons are worth drafting at some point. As I said, he underperformed his ADP even discounting the injury and projecting his stats. Your attitude leads me to believe you still would have avoided him in the 2nd round last year which would have been foolish at the time without knowing he would be injured. It's easy to say it was wise to avoid him totally when hindsighting.
No, actually, he was on pace for a top 10 finish IN SPITE of his lowly 3.5 YPC. As I have already pointed out LJ underperformed his ADP, we all agree on that.KellysHeroes said:
I guess the point is that if you are certain of a holdout, project how many games you think that is and subtract the adequate amount of fantasy points. Now compare that to who is available at #7. I personally think SJax could miss 1-2 games and still be worthy of drafting #7. But I don't think he'll miss any time and will be a steal in the bottom half of the first round.joffer said:
If SJax gets injured this year and misses time, can't wait for all the roaches to come out of the woodwork saying they KNEW that would happen and thank goodness they were right and avoided him at all costs.
I'm not sure why this is confusing you, I would think it's pretty simple.Even if you think there's only a 10% chance the holdout makes him miss time, if you have two guys that you only expect him to outscore by a few points (like the alternatives at #2) then maybe that 10% chance isn't worth taking a risk on to get an extra 10 points. But if you've project him to score 80-100 points more than the alternatives (like the other guys at #7) then maybe that 10% extra risk is worth it.It's kind of like pot odds in poker, and it's a pretty widely used concept.joffer said:
it's not confusing, and it's not poker. i don't know what's left in the deck. i have no basis to put a % on whether he'll holdout for 4 games, and a different % that he'll hold out for 8. i either think he'll be there game one, or i don't. and if i don't, that rules him out in round 1 for me.I'm not sure why this is confusing you, I would think it's pretty simple.Even if you think there's only a 10% chance the holdout makes him miss time, if you have two guys that you only expect him to outscore by a few points (like the alternatives at #2) then maybe that 10% chance isn't worth taking a risk on to get an extra 10 points. But if you've project him to score 80-100 points more than the alternatives (like the other guys at #7) then maybe that 10% extra risk is worth it.It's kind of like pot odds in poker, and it's a pretty widely used concept.joffer said:
I think at #12 you should definitely take him because your second pick is the very next pick. Part of the risk of taking Jackson early is that your next pick will be a lesser talent because you have to wait many picks to choose again. If he misses a lot of time you're really hurt because your next guy is an end of the second round guy. With Jackson at #12 you're getting the potential for top three talent and the first pick of the second round. Could be a huge advantage and worth the risk at that stage imo.
Why would they be roaches? This happens all the time doesn't it. Guys come into camp late, aren't in shape, get injured in the regular season. This is fairly common. Now I don't know if Jax is keeping himself in shape or not, but it will say something to his work ethic if after the Rams give him a big K if he comes in out of shape. And as a Rams homer I'm gonna be pissed if he misses all of TC and gets injured in the regular season after signing a big contract...If SJax gets injured this year and misses time, can't wait for all the roaches to come out of the woodwork saying they KNEW that would happen and thank goodness they were right and avoided him at all costs.
Exactly! A questionable situation over his holdout should easily have you considering AP or Westbrook at #2. However, if you're at #7 with SJax on the board and your next options are Barber, Portis or maybe Moss, it is much more likely to take the risk as the potential value up there.I'm not sure why this is confusing you, I would think it's pretty simple.Even if you think there's only a 10% chance the holdout makes him miss time, if you have two guys that you only expect him to outscore by a few points (like the alternatives at #2) then maybe that 10% chance isn't worth taking a risk on to get an extra 10 points. But if you've project him to score 80-100 points more than the alternatives (like the other guys at #7) then maybe that 10% extra risk is worth it.It's kind of like pot odds in poker, and it's a pretty widely used concept.I'm with you joffer. I don't see how the risk is any less unless you already have your RB#1, and you are coming around in the 2nd round. Let someone else roll that dice until he signs.
I think if you pass on him at two, the same reasons for that are going to be looming with any first round pickNo-shows are No-scores, and it is a dice roll to assume SJ could join the team during the season and be as productive for the season as the guy you passed on to take JacksonHoldouts, Games Played: (?) means I don't know if there was an injury.2007Strahan 16LJ 8 (injured)JaMarcus 4 (not injured)Asante Samuel 162006Leinert 12 (not injured)Lelie 15 (?)Deion Branch 14 (?)Brodrick Bunkley 15 (?)2005Ronnie Brown 15 (?)Westbrook 12 (injured)Hines Ward 15 (?)Too tired to continue looking. LJ is the only contract holdout to have a season ending injury in recent history, so now it "happens all the time". Do some holdouts get injured? Yes. Do some non-holdouts get injured? YES. Somebody with more time than me can calculate the % of players that get injured every season, and compare that to the injury rate of holdout players.Why would they be roaches? This happens all the time doesn't it. Guys come into camp late, aren't in shape, get injured in the regular season. This is fairly common. Now I don't know if Jax is keeping himself in shape or not, but it will say something to his work ethic if after the Rams give him a big K if he comes in out of shape. And as a Rams homer I'm gonna be pissed if he misses all of TC and gets injured in the regular season after signing a big contract...If SJax gets injured this year and misses time, can't wait for all the roaches to come out of the woodwork saying they KNEW that would happen and thank goodness they were right and avoided him at all costs.
It doesn't have to be a quantitative number, just a feeling of in general what the chances of him holding out are.You're already applying this in your head when you say he's too risky for a first round pick but you would take him in the 2nd. Why the 2nd? Why not pass in the 2nd and only be willing to take him in the 3rd? Why not pass in the 3rd and only take him in the 4th?Because you're waying risk vs. reward in your head, the same way I outlined above. Your cutoff is just different. To you, the risk cutoff is having him as a #1 vs. a #2. To someone else, it's having him instead of Brian Westbrook vs. having him instead of Marion Barber. To someone else, it's having him as a #2 vs. having him as a #3. So to say "I don't understand why your cutoff is 3-5 picks in front of mine" is foolish. All that it means is that when that person weighs the risk vs. reward (as you are doing in your head whether you would admit it or not) it comes out slightly different.Again, not rocket science.it's not confusing, and it's not poker. i don't know what's left in the deck. i have no basis to put a % on whether he'll holdout for 4 games, and a different % that he'll hold out for 8. i either think he'll be there game one, or i don't. and if i don't, that rules him out in round 1 for me.I'm not sure why this is confusing you, I would think it's pretty simple.Even if you think there's only a 10% chance the holdout makes him miss time, if you have two guys that you only expect him to outscore by a few points (like the alternatives at #2) then maybe that 10% chance isn't worth taking a risk on to get an extra 10 points. But if you've project him to score 80-100 points more than the alternatives (like the other guys at #7) then maybe that 10% extra risk is worth it.It's kind of like pot odds in poker, and it's a pretty widely used concept.I'm with you joffer. I don't see how the risk is any less unless you already have your RB#1, and you are coming around in the 2nd round. Let someone else roll that dice until he signs.
No ... I'm picking 12th in a 14-team league. I pick #12, then #17. After those two, I have to wait until picks #40 and 45. So it's definitely not the same as picking #12/13. Two other teams are picking twice before I pick again.However ... I don't think he'll make it to me at #12. The team picking #10 has said they will take him there if he slides to them. So it's probably moot. But ... the bigger issue is whether to draft him at all. The risk/reward question.
