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McFaddenMJD
McFadden in dynasty, although i wouldn't fault someone too much if they prefered MJD.
Well, neither is currently #1 on their teams' depth charts, and those are set for the season opening usually by week 3 of the preseason.I'm sure at some point McFadden will overtake the #1 spot during the season. MJD will need Taylor to get injured for him to be the #1 RB.
All fair points but I'm thinking in terms of who will get the most carries/opportunities to score and I think this is the year that MJD gets more of both over Taylor. I also think many of us would agree that even though Fargas is #1 right now that McFadden will get the most carries of the 3. So to me "starter" doesn't mean much to me with these two as I think they will both be #1.
No way is McFadden the more talented RB.Drew has also proven it on the NFL level. McFadden looks pretty good in the preseason.
The jury is still out on this.
But MJD has had a chance to prove it in the NFL. McF has not....yet. I'm the biggest MJD supporter out there. But I can't say that MJD is better because I haven't seen McF play in real games yet. That being said, if I had to choose now, I would probably go with MJD just because he is a more proven commodity. I would take the safer bet but with the lower potential reward than the higher risk, higher reward guy. If MJD were say, 5 years older than McF I might go the other way but both are relatively in the same age bracket...
This is a common knock on MJD, but I think that it has the possibility to be similar to MBIII. I think he could become the featured back that they might try to find someone or even have Taylor compliment him instead of the other way around. One other comment, is that MJD while in his "role", has produced solid numbers. Do you expect McFadden to be elite?
Is it?
That's my point. We're making a choice right now in this hypothetical, no? There's a chance McFadden is the greatest RB in NFL history. But, he hasn't proven that yet, so I'll go with the guys that are the best young RB's in the league right now, such as Peterson, Drew, etc.
I'm not really sure what you're saying. Are you saying that Drew is safer with a lower potential reward, and McFadden is higher risk with a higher reward? If so, I have no idea how you'd come to that conclusion. I agree that Drew is safer based off the fact that we know what he can do at this level. But, I don't see McFadden as presenting higher rewards than Drew. Drew's just as explosive and is the GL back on his team. We have no idea what McFadden's role will be, but short of playing both QB and RB in the NFL as he did in college, I don't think his role is likely to be greater than Drew's in the future. So, where's the greater reward?
Justin Fargas ran for 4.5/carry on the Raiders. I don't think it's a negative for McFadden.
I know you're just joking, but it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.A backup running back?
When you're an NFL coach and your job depends on winning every week, you're going to get your best player the ball. I'm sure the Eagles and Giants would've liked complements to Westbrook and Barber, but those guys ended up getting a lot of touches simply because they were much better than the other options on the roster. I expect MJD's opportunities to increase within the next 1-2 years for the same reason.
MJD will probably never be a 300 carry back, but i think he will definetly see more touches than in the past two season. If anything, i think they would find a different return man, rather than a RB to take half the touches. The fact that Jones-Drew has finish in the top 13 in his two season with only 200 touches in each, i am excited to see what he does when he gets close to 300.
I'm not saying I necessarily do in this case, but if you see a top prospect, say McFadden, as a future centerpiece RB and the established player, say MJD, as a career long RBBC with limited upside then it might be worth the risk.To use your analogy it could be like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at 65 cents. Which side of the equation you take partially depends on the type of risk vs. reward you're looking for.EBF said:I know you're just joking, but it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.Avery said:A backup running back?EBF said:
i guess this is probably the way that I feel, in that MJD is more of a known quantity, and the unknown possibilities of McFadden.I'm not saying I necessarily do in this case, but if you see a top prospect, say McFadden, as a future centerpiece RB and the established player, say MJD, as a career long RBBC with limited upside then it might be worth the risk.To use your analogy it could be like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at 65 cents. Which side of the equation you take partially depends on the type of risk vs. reward you're looking for.EBF said:I know you're just joking, but it almost never makes sense to draft a good prospect who might become an elite player over an established elite player in the prime of his career. It's like taking a 65% chance at a dollar instead of a 100% chance at a dollar. The risk/reward equation clearly favors MJD here.Avery said:A backup running back?EBF said:
MJDMcFaddenI don't think it is close. I have never been a McFadden fan. He doesn't have the correct body type, has poor vision, isn't elusive, doesn't run hard, and has character issues. Throw the fact that MJD is one of the best players in the NFL and has top 5 fantasy back written all over him in the next couple years...it isn't close.
Exactly.EBF said:
While i disagree with most of everything you said, this one is absolutely 100% wrong.
Even those that aren't fans of McFadden generally stipulate that he runs hard.You might say that his skinny legs mean that he has poor leg drive if you like, but I haven't heard anyone doubt that the dude runs hard.
The 3 bolded points are a joke.Even with that said, I'd take MJD if I had to choose today.
He runs hard, but he doesn't run with power.
Like many, I think "the centerpiece rb" is going away anyway, and RBBC will become more and more the norm. That makes discussions on that point almost moot. Look at what Dallas did in the draft. Look at what Tenessee did. Carolina. Pittsburgh. Even Oakland - they gave Fargas his money, still had Bush, and drafted McFadden *anyway*. They'll likely use all three as well - I don't think many people truly believe McFadden will ever see 300 carries. These teams will all use multiple backs. Even the former bellcows are in trouble (in terms of FF). For example, Lendale is still "the starter" (for whatever that's going to be worth). But is he going to get 300+ carries again with CJ3 in town? Probably not. And the team (and Lendale) is probably fine with that - it's us FF players that will have to adjust.Given that trend, I see MJD as a pretty safe play, because he puts up excellent numbers while in a full blown RBBC. He doesn't need 300 touches to make your fantasy team formidable. That's going to be rare.
It's more like asking me if I want a million dollars or a hundred thousand dollars.
I may have have been off a bit, MJD = $1,000,000. Mcfadden = $950,000. I should point out though that MJD is my #3 ranked dynasty RB, possibly #2.
No shot. Not on the Raiders with their current mess.
He can try to run as hard as he likes, but if you are going down on first contact and don't have any leg drive, how hard are you running?
Once again, I just think Darren McFadden is really overrated in a lot of areas. I don't agree with your assessments, and the gimmicky offense he played in at Arkansas really covered up many of his flaws. There was a reason that Felix Jones was the back they turned to when they needed yards inside the tackles. He is fast as lightning and is a good athlete, but he doesn't have the elusiveness and ability to create that is necessary to be an elite back at the NFL level. I think MJD has upside to be a top 5 back, and I think McFaddens upside is quite a bit lower...especially when considering the current Oakland mess.
Why am i the blind one? Is it not possible for you to be the blind one by missing his strengths? For you to say he doesnt run hard leads me to believe you have not seen him play.P.S. I am a big MJD fan, and voted for him in this poll.
I'm not even sure MJD is anything special to begin with..do people realize that Greg Jones is coming back this year and looks great so far in preseason? So, adding another RB to the RBBC mix in Jax doesn't scare anyone?! I just don't get it..MJD gets a lot of love on this board, and he's part of the biggest RBBC in the entire NFL, WORSE than the RBBC with the Giants..and yet people think MJD's stats will actually go up this year??wow..I don't see that happening at all..and just looking at a few runs by McFadden so far in preseason,you know he's going to be something special down the road..the guy is extremely talented!You think Greg Jones is going to get 200 carries once FT is out of the picture? Also, you do realize MJD has finished 8th and 13th in his two years as a Jag. That was with 200 touches in each season, which should be the minimum touches we should expect out of MJD this year, and in the near future. Look for 250-280 touches and a top 5 fantasy finish this year for Jones-Drew.
from a pure talent perspective, i don't see how you can say this. i'm far from the biggest mcfadden fan, but its pretty clear the kid's got top level talent. how it translates to the nfl is yet to be seen.i'm still curious to see how mjd's game translates when he gets more than 10-12 touches/game.
fixed
:X Regardless of one's feelings on McFadden, MJD is clearly an elite talent in the NFL. He has been in a RBBC because he happens to be on a team that has another fantastic RB. As good as he has been the past few years, Fred isn't going to play forever. At some point, his touches will need to be reistributed. With even 300 total touches, MJD looks like he'll be a top five fantsy RB. His downside, if he stays around 200 touces, seems to be remaining a top fifteen fantasy RB.McFadden is an unknown at this point. Regardless of how great a prospect he is or isn't, he carries substantial bust risk, just like all rookies, no matter how highly drafted or how much hype is attached to them. McFadden might be the next Adrian Peterson, or he might be the next Lawrence Phillips. Likely he'll be somewhere in between, but we really just don't know yet.MJD is a slam-dunk in this case.EBF said:
That's as big an assumption as anything about if and when McFadden will get the lion's share of the carries.
The Jags already have a dominant short-yardage back. His name is Maurice Jones-Drew.
i agree. i love MJD and he is a great short-yardage back. (i've only bought one sports jersey in my lifetime and it's a beautiful teal #32)my concern is not about MJD's effectiveness, but more the role that the jags would rather him fill in the future. at some point, the jags will be looking for a back to complement MJD. i assume that back will be larger one. if they can find someone who is as good or better than MJD in short-yardage situations, i could envision the jags prefering to use someone else in that role at some point. i think MJD is more valuable to the team for his exposiveness and big play ability than he would be for short-yardage situations, if the jags had a good alternative. i don't know what's going to happen, but when considering MJD's dynasty prospects, the possiblity of the jags acquiring a big back and choosing to save MJD's body by utilizing another guy, seems like a real concern that must be considered.
Games with 15 or more touches:2006Week 3 - 13/103, 4/32, 1 TDWeek 7 - 8/10, 7/58, 1 TDWeek 8 - 21/77, 3/20 Week 14 - 15/166, 1/15, 2 TD'sWeek 15 - 25/98, 3/47, 1 TD Week 16 - 19/131, 6/41, 2 TD's Week 17 - 12/46, 4/16, 1 TD2007Week 3 - 15/37, 2/18Week 6 - 12/125, 4/59, 2 TD'sWeek 7 - 13/52, 3/17, 1 TDWeek 10 - 19/101, 3/28, 1 TD Week 15 - 12/69, 5/30Week 16 - 10/44, 6/96, 1 TDOver these 13 games he averaged:14.9/81.5 rushing (5.5 yd/carry), 3.9/36.7 (9.4 yd/catch) & 1.0 TD'sThat's 18.8 touches for 118.2 yards and a full TD per game when getting at least 15 touches.For a full season, that's 238/1,304 rushing, 62/587 receiving & 16 TD'sIf you only count games where he had at least 18 touches (4 games), he averages:21/102 rush, 3.8/34 rec, 1 TDFull season = 336/1,632 rush, 61/544 rec, 16 TD'sWhile you can't just assume he can keep up this pace for a full season, it gives us a pretty good idea of what he can do. The stretch in 2006 from week 14-17 is probably the best indication where he averaged 17.8/110, 3.5/30, 1.5 TD'sNo matter how you slice it, his production is sick even when he gets a "full" load.
On second thought, I might have been wrong. I ran some regression analysis that leads me to think it's a lot closer than I realized. This is based on the assumption that McFadden is about as good as a #4 draft pick RB usually is, and that MJD is about as good as a 3rd year RB with 102 points of career VBD usually is. I believe (for no good reason) that McFadden is worse than his draft stock, and that MJD (for good reason) is better than his career VBD value. But that only serves to narrow the gap, because the #4 pick looked better in my analysis.Part of the reason is the downside of McFadden = Lawrence Phillips isn't a huge deal for your fantasy team. Yes, it stinks, but you can always get another RB. It's not like you're starting 0s every week. But the high upside is something that's irreplaceable.A more interesting question than I first realized.
With all the talk that MJD will never be the bell cow, I have to wonder, when Fred is gone, are they really not actually test to see if he can do it?
part of the reason i voted for mcfadden is because i view the jags as a pretty smart organization (and i view the raiders as the opposite, so they'll run DMC into the ground even if it doesn't make sense). for that reason, i have my doubts that the jags will ever try to make MJD a bell cow for any extended period of time.imo, it's just not smart for most any organization to put the full load on one RB. they wear down quicker and ultimately, it costs more money (every 4-5 years, you either have to shell out a truckload of money or let a major cog walk via FA). RBBC just makes more sense and i think the jags' experience watching fred taylor's career get extended will only reinforce that for them.
Did you watch any Arkansas games at all?
