Please explain to me why Fast Willie is falling behind so many RB's? I understand he did not score too many TD's last year. But up until his injury he was leading the league in rushing yards. He had a broken leg, which actually I consider a desirable problem to knee, ankle, or hammy issue. Yes, he lost a very good lineman, and yes Pittsburgh did draft a high round RB. But Mendenhall is nearly the exact same size as FWP, he is A ROOKIE, and do we really expect the Steelers to pass to Dallas Clark and Matt Spaeth every time from inside the two yard line again? If he's there in the third, I'm taking him.
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Why so down on Fast Willie? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter matzflava
- Start date
Tom in Albany
Footballguy
Why so Fast?
H.K.
Footballguy
Knowing what I know today, I do not expect this to happen, either.
identikit
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
give him a break he's a buckeye fan
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Because they used a 1st round pick on a beast of a running back. They didn't draft Mendenhall to fetch towels for the vets....
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
That'd be the shark move....
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cheese
Footballguy
I agree that Parker is good value this year. His TD's have nowhere to go but up, and I think he's a pretty safe bet to keep racking up solid yardage totals.
Despite last year, its not like the guy is incapable of scoring a TD. He had 13 in 2006. Sure, he's giving up some if not most of the goal line touches... but thats why you're getting him in the 3rd round and not the 1st.
Despite last year, its not like the guy is incapable of scoring a TD. He had 13 in 2006. Sure, he's giving up some if not most of the goal line touches... but thats why you're getting him in the 3rd round and not the 1st.
IM666
Footballguy
Given your current avatar, I expected to see a post that read "Break you must give him, Buckeye fan he is".
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
While at first glance I would agree with you, isn't that exactly what happened when ATL drafted Duckett as the 1st RB that year behind a RB (Dunn) that was good, but not as good as Parker?? JUst sayin'...
yellowdog
Footballguy
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Abraham
Footballguy
Parker is the 2nd best RB on that roster. That's why he's sliding.
Not even close to the same. Duckett's role was to complement Dunn, who wasn't very powerful but was very versatile (receiving, etc.) Duckett's role was to be an up-the-gut runner to pair with Dunn. In the Pitt case, Mendenhall has arguably the same traits as Parker plus some that Parker lacks.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I thought I herd reports that Mendy was struggling with all aspects of the offense, goal line, blitz pickup etc.I think it's a little while until he un-seats FWP
TheFanatic
Footballguy
6'0" and 250 and you expect him to be an every down back? The coaching staff has stated that RMend can do it all. Inside, outside, catch, block, etc. They called him an elusive, "violent," runner.
Abraham
Footballguy
I agree he won't be getting 350 carries this year. But his role will increase as the season goes on meaning that FWP's role will decrease. As such, FWP may not be worth much come the stretch run and playoffs. Ergo, his ADP is sliding.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
fresh off the press. notice the dont have to throw him to the fire blurb. He will be eased in.
FWP has produced (2 td's not with standing) goaline TE passing had alot to do with that IMO
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Adrian Petersen was a rookieE. James rushed for 1500 his rookie year
Tomlinson rushed for 1200 his rookie year
Being a rookie RB now a days means nothing (unlike being a rookie WR). We're seeing more and more rookie RBs explode in their first years in the league
After Parker's injury I've been hearing he's not longer "Fast" willie parker.
Bottom line is if PIT felt confident at RB heading into this season they would not have taken Mendenhall. I see Mendenhall's role to increase as the season goes on, making Willie Parker a good option for weeks 1-5... but after that you might want to trade him
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
They are going to use both guys, folks.
And it is going to "limit" BOTH of them from a fantasy standpoint.
Unless one of them gets hurt, I'm not that wild about either guy being relied upon. I expect Parker to still get the lion's share of the carries and he'll likely crack 1,000 yards just because the Steelers' offense should be fairly good. Given that, he should be fine as at least a RB2 when you look at his totals year end. I just think both the RBs are going to be pretty sporadic. Parker may have nice enough stats at the end of the season, but I'm afraid he may be spiky. Several bigger games sprinkled in with some pretty vanilla offerings.
I could easily see the team riding the hot hand in any given week since they DO like Mendenhall so much in all phases already. One guy could have a big game one week, then the other guy the next, then both cancel each other out for 3 weeks in a row and the guy who scores is the one to start. I don't see the Steelers running enough, a la Minnesota or the Titans, to make both guys viable starting candidates in a given week.
If either of them lose time to injury, the other one immediately becomes exponentially more valuable, obviously. You almost HAVE to draft both if you want either, IMO.
And it is going to "limit" BOTH of them from a fantasy standpoint.
Unless one of them gets hurt, I'm not that wild about either guy being relied upon. I expect Parker to still get the lion's share of the carries and he'll likely crack 1,000 yards just because the Steelers' offense should be fairly good. Given that, he should be fine as at least a RB2 when you look at his totals year end. I just think both the RBs are going to be pretty sporadic. Parker may have nice enough stats at the end of the season, but I'm afraid he may be spiky. Several bigger games sprinkled in with some pretty vanilla offerings.
I could easily see the team riding the hot hand in any given week since they DO like Mendenhall so much in all phases already. One guy could have a big game one week, then the other guy the next, then both cancel each other out for 3 weeks in a row and the guy who scores is the one to start. I don't see the Steelers running enough, a la Minnesota or the Titans, to make both guys viable starting candidates in a given week.
If either of them lose time to injury, the other one immediately becomes exponentially more valuable, obviously. You almost HAVE to draft both if you want either, IMO.
sweetness34
Footballguy
Not saying I agree or disagree with the arguments being presented about FWP and MEND, but if this is the basis of one's rationale, why is MBIII ranked as a top 10 RB when they drafted Jones in the 1st round? I think each situation needs to be looked at independently - without broadly applying the above logic to every scenario.My $.02
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
exactly Pitt IMO took the BPA best player available regardless of position. Dallas had Zero depth behind MB3 and needed to add a RB as well
treat88
Footballguy
Link?I have heard nothing other than he looks like he's 100%
2006 isn't that far back to try and remember is it?2007 is on Arians not FWP. FO has a great analysis of O-line production. I think it's fair to say Arians was a horrible play caller in the run game.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php
Mendenhall will be Willie's caddy until/unless Pitt drops out of the playoff chase.
I Am Rick James
Footballguy
I agree with a few others that Fast Willie has become a bit of a value pic
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
I thought the drafting of Mendenhall pretty much spoiled any FWP value. However, RM has not looked very good, and Parker looks like a good value play in 2008.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Agree to disagree. I know what i saw, and it was not good.
ScoobyDoo
Footballguy
Did the offensive coordinator change? No.Did the backfield change? Yes, they drafted a "bigger" guy.Result? FWP still can't find the endzone, even if I hand him a map before the game.
Jayrod
Footballguy
fixed
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
What did you fix?
treat88
Footballguy
Gotta agree with Burning Sensation.By all reports, and in viewing the first two pre-season games a couple of things are apparent.Agree to disagree. I know what i saw, and it was not good.
First, FWP is his usual self, the speed and determination are there.
Second, Mendenhall is definitely going through some rookie growing pains. He's tentative, runs with poor pad level, and misses more holes than he hits. However, when he does get a lane he's big, fast, and tough to bring down. His upside is huge, however he's not ready now.
I believe as long as the Steelers are winning games Mendy will be nothing more than a #2. If they drop out of playoff contention all bets are off.
This is what should worry folks considering drafting FWP far more than Mendenhall's presence.2006 shows Willie's upside if Arians demonstrates an ability to learn from his mistakes. I don't believe he will/can.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
LOL...you are better than that, Fanatic...haven't we heard that story with EVERY 1st round pick...who actually says "we drafted him in the 1st round and hope he will put up David Meggett-type numbers???William Green, TJ Duckett and Cedric Benson were drafted in the 1st b/c the scouts thought they could make an impact. Whether Mendenhall can is up for debate, but I find it curious he felll so far in the 1st round when he was projected to go much higher...
Here is a nice read from the pitts post gazette a few days ago. Take note to the marked quote from the offensive cordinator. Sounds like it's going to be FWP'S show for now. I see RM getting some goaline touches but FWP being the main RB focus. I live in the Pitts area and that is the impression I'm getting so far. I say FWP will be a nice value for his yardage alone this year.
Mendenhall running on instinct
Willie Parker and teammates ease off giving advice to the Steelers' No. 1 draft choice in order to let his ball-carrying instincts take over
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
By Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Peter Diana / Post-Gazette
Mendenhall Suffering Information OverloadWillie Parker said he is done tutoring Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers' No. 1 pick this year. Parker said he has stopped giving the rookie running back advice about playing in the National Football League and won't do so again unless he is asked.
But, before anyone accuses the two-time Pro Bowl running back of being selfish or feeling threatened about Mendenhall's development, consider the reason: Parker said he thinks Mendenhall is getting too much advice and just needs to go out and run the football, unencumbered and without thinking too much.
"I told him I'm going to stay away from him a little bit because everybody is telling him too much right now," Parker said yesterday. "Then your mind gets clouded and he makes mistakes he normally wouldn't make. You don't want to tell him too much, so I told him I'm going to step back a little bit and have everybody else leave him alone and let him go out and play football."
Coach Mike Tomlin issued a similar critique several weeks ago after the first goal-line drill of training camp, saying Mendenhall needed to think less and run more instinctively in short-yardage opportunities.
Now, after two preseason games, Parker is saying the same thing, all with the direct purpose of letting Mendenhall's running style -- a combination of power, speed and wiggle -- freely start to blossom.
The Steelers already have seen some flashes, including the easy manner in which Mendenhall scored on a 6-yard run against the Buffalo Bills -- his first touchdown of the preseason.
"To have a feeling like that, that you haven't had in a while, gives you a little confidence," said Mendenhall, who rushed for 22 touchdowns in two seasons at Illinois. "It's something to move forward on."
None of this is to suggest the Steelers are disappointed in the pace of Mendenhall's development or that he has not progressed quickly enough to somehow alter their plans for him when the regular season begins.
Rather, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said Mendenhall, the 21st overall pick in the draft, has been everything the team hoped and more.
"He's violent running down there," Arians said. "He made the one guy miss and he ran over the safety. There's going to be one of those guys you have to take care of yourself, and he's starting to understand that and get yards."
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Then Arians added, "It's nice to not have to throw him into the fire. He can go bits and pieces until we have to [use him].
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"I have no problems using him in any phase right now, whether it's first-and-10, short-yardage, goal-line or third-down. But we're still two weeks away. He'll find his actual role."
There are several possibilities.
The most intriguing involves a same-backfield pairing with Parker, a two-back formation that Arians has said he would like to use. Another option would be to utilize Mendenhall, who is 6 feet, 225 pounds, in short-yardage situations.
It is unlikely, however, that he will be used as a third-down back, a role that will be filled by newcomer Mewelde Moore, who was signed in free agency from the Minnesota Vikings.
No matter the role, though, Mendenhall is beginning to excite his teammates.
"His feet ... he has very, very quick feet," said fullback Carey Davis. "For a bigger guy, you wouldn't expect that from him. He's able to get in and out of holes and make cuts that some people may not see.
"But maybe he's a little tentative, just because things are moving so fast when you're trying to learn things. When it's new to you, you kind of hesitate a little trying to make everything right."
Little by little, Mendenhall said he is starting to understand.
"It's been what you expected, but getting through it is a different story," he said. "You hear about how difficult it is, but it's different when you play out there. It's getting accustomed to everything and gaining experience."
Some of it, he will have to do on his own.
Mendenhall running on instinct
Willie Parker and teammates ease off giving advice to the Steelers' No. 1 draft choice in order to let his ball-carrying instincts take over
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
By Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Peter Diana / Post-Gazette
Mendenhall Suffering Information OverloadWillie Parker said he is done tutoring Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers' No. 1 pick this year. Parker said he has stopped giving the rookie running back advice about playing in the National Football League and won't do so again unless he is asked.
But, before anyone accuses the two-time Pro Bowl running back of being selfish or feeling threatened about Mendenhall's development, consider the reason: Parker said he thinks Mendenhall is getting too much advice and just needs to go out and run the football, unencumbered and without thinking too much.
"I told him I'm going to stay away from him a little bit because everybody is telling him too much right now," Parker said yesterday. "Then your mind gets clouded and he makes mistakes he normally wouldn't make. You don't want to tell him too much, so I told him I'm going to step back a little bit and have everybody else leave him alone and let him go out and play football."
Coach Mike Tomlin issued a similar critique several weeks ago after the first goal-line drill of training camp, saying Mendenhall needed to think less and run more instinctively in short-yardage opportunities.
Now, after two preseason games, Parker is saying the same thing, all with the direct purpose of letting Mendenhall's running style -- a combination of power, speed and wiggle -- freely start to blossom.
The Steelers already have seen some flashes, including the easy manner in which Mendenhall scored on a 6-yard run against the Buffalo Bills -- his first touchdown of the preseason.
"To have a feeling like that, that you haven't had in a while, gives you a little confidence," said Mendenhall, who rushed for 22 touchdowns in two seasons at Illinois. "It's something to move forward on."
None of this is to suggest the Steelers are disappointed in the pace of Mendenhall's development or that he has not progressed quickly enough to somehow alter their plans for him when the regular season begins.
Rather, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said Mendenhall, the 21st overall pick in the draft, has been everything the team hoped and more.
"He's violent running down there," Arians said. "He made the one guy miss and he ran over the safety. There's going to be one of those guys you have to take care of yourself, and he's starting to understand that and get yards."
********************************************************************************
**********************
Then Arians added, "It's nice to not have to throw him into the fire. He can go bits and pieces until we have to [use him].
********************************************************************************
***********************
"I have no problems using him in any phase right now, whether it's first-and-10, short-yardage, goal-line or third-down. But we're still two weeks away. He'll find his actual role."
There are several possibilities.
The most intriguing involves a same-backfield pairing with Parker, a two-back formation that Arians has said he would like to use. Another option would be to utilize Mendenhall, who is 6 feet, 225 pounds, in short-yardage situations.
It is unlikely, however, that he will be used as a third-down back, a role that will be filled by newcomer Mewelde Moore, who was signed in free agency from the Minnesota Vikings.
No matter the role, though, Mendenhall is beginning to excite his teammates.
"His feet ... he has very, very quick feet," said fullback Carey Davis. "For a bigger guy, you wouldn't expect that from him. He's able to get in and out of holes and make cuts that some people may not see.
"But maybe he's a little tentative, just because things are moving so fast when you're trying to learn things. When it's new to you, you kind of hesitate a little trying to make everything right."
Little by little, Mendenhall said he is starting to understand.
"It's been what you expected, but getting through it is a different story," he said. "You hear about how difficult it is, but it's different when you play out there. It's getting accustomed to everything and gaining experience."
Some of it, he will have to do on his own.
Agree to disagree. I know what i saw, and it was not good.
It wasn't that long ago that Mendenhall had some struggles in the preseason. I don't remember the article, but I remember seeing a few things posted here.Besides, the above link is in no way anywhere close to Arians saying something like it is RBBC or Mendenhall is playing so well he may overtake FWP, etc. If the above blurb is a reason to be down on FWP, then I may have to grab FWP as he drops in value.
It's preseason so it is way too early to jump to any conclusions, but what I have seen from Mendenhall so far has not been impressive.
He has been tip toeing to the line of scrimmage and despite good size has not displayed much power because he runs too upright.
He reminds me of another "poweful" Big Ten RB - The Great Dayne.
He has been tip toeing to the line of scrimmage and despite good size has not displayed much power because he runs too upright.
He reminds me of another "poweful" Big Ten RB - The Great Dayne.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I'm just saying that the Falcons had a tiny little back in Dunn. Duckett was the perfect compliment and turned into a pretty rock solid running game. In no way was Ducket ever considered for 300 carries in a season. RMend is more of that every down back in terms of build. And trust me, early on I was leery about the kid too. Everything coming out was negative. Lately the opposite is true. The kid is a rook. We'll see what happens in the regular season....And to your second point, so what that he was projected higher. Mel Kyper is not a GM and his projections mean squat. Other teams didn't take him? So. Other teams had different needs. So look at the RB's that were taken ahead of him. McFadden is a unique talent so let's remove him from the list. Dallas already has a pounder in MBIII. Tennessee already had a pounder. That leaves Carolina. They chose Stewart, so now in retrospect, did he really slide all that much?
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
A lot has to break just right for your scenario to happen.
BigRed
Footballguy
FYI "RMend" is 5'10", 225. Not that far off from WilPark, really, although none of it matters if BRoth can't get HWar, SHol, and HMil the fball enough.
FWP starts folks. We all know there will be some touches by Mendenhall, but anyone who tells you they have a lock on even a ballpark percentage is lying. I suspect not even the coaches have that figured out yet. My guess is at MOST Meldenhall gets 1/3 - probably a little less - this year, but bottom line neither will likely be on my team unless they really fall.
FWP starts folks. We all know there will be some touches by Mendenhall, but anyone who tells you they have a lock on even a ballpark percentage is lying. I suspect not even the coaches have that figured out yet. My guess is at MOST Meldenhall gets 1/3 - probably a little less - this year, but bottom line neither will likely be on my team unless they really fall.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
You are taking a lot out of the equation (we essentially are taking both Carolina and oakand out of the equation)...again, I think we agree that anything can happen, but if he was so $$ would Chris Johnson and Felix Jones both go before him??? I have a hard time thinking I would hear this conversation..."no, no, we are cool, we have Lendale as our anchor." I can barely right that...if a great talent (enough to unseat someone like Parker with ease) presented himself in the draft, I have a hard time thinking BOTH Dallas and Tenn (and other teams that did not go RB) would pass on him. Color me skeptical...
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I am not taking Carolina out of the equation. Mendenhall is not McFadden and should not be compared to him. I took two teams that don't need two big backs for a 1-2 punch. They need to bring in the different type of back to create the mismatch which is one of the bonuses of a RBBC. Carolina had a choice between the two and chose the other. So Mend slipped past Carolina. But there was no way Dallas would take him. They have that guy on the roster already. And say what you will about Lendale, he got a ton of carries last year and performed pretty well. But if they have a LW and a CJ back there they can really create a lot of mismatches and misdirection. I take Dallas and Tennessee out just like I take out anyone who was looking for a defensive player. Just because a guy doesn't get drafted by a team make him automatically worthless. It just means other teams had different needs. A big bruising back is not what Tenn and Dallas needed. Carolina did and they passed. Also, at no point did I say that he would easily take FWP's job. But he will impact the job FWP does. He will likely carry at the goal line and he will be used in short yardage and pounding situations. And I can't wait to see the two of these guys in the same backfield. I didn't say that FWP was going to ride the pine. I just said I was down on him...
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
In 2006, Parker got 21 carries and one passing target inside the opponents' 5 yard line; he converted those to 11 TDs. Najeh Davenport got 5 carries for -7 yards and 1 TD. Parker tied for #4 overall in number of goal-line rushes. He also had 4 TDs from outside the 5.
In 2007, Parker got just 7 carries and no targets inside the opponents' 5; he got just 1 TD on those carries. Najeh Davenport got 10 carries for 11 yards and 4 TDs. 7 carries inside the 5 tied for 28th in the league. He had just one TD from outside the 5. Looking at game logs, he had just three carries from inside the 4, and two carries at the goal line, with one TD.
So it's clear that there was a change in touches for 2007, and it's not necessarily clear that Parker was significantly less effectiv. (Trivia: Selvin Young also had 7 carries. He had -4 yards and zero TDs. Most effective at this level was Brian Westbrook, who had 4 rushing and 1 receiving TD on 7 carries and 4 targets).
The question is, will anything change in 2008? It seems likely that Mendenhall will at least get a shot at all the Davenport carries, and if he doesn't fumble, will probably be at least as effective as Davenport. So you still could look at Parker as ranking 20+ in number of goal line touches in 2008. Still, if he manages to score 4 TDs from outside the 5, like he did in 2006, he'd be a good value where he's being drafted. Given how dangerous Parker is in the open field, I think it's reasonable to project him for at least 5 TDs, even with a goal-line vulture on the team.
In 2007, Parker got just 7 carries and no targets inside the opponents' 5; he got just 1 TD on those carries. Najeh Davenport got 10 carries for 11 yards and 4 TDs. 7 carries inside the 5 tied for 28th in the league. He had just one TD from outside the 5. Looking at game logs, he had just three carries from inside the 4, and two carries at the goal line, with one TD.
So it's clear that there was a change in touches for 2007, and it's not necessarily clear that Parker was significantly less effectiv. (Trivia: Selvin Young also had 7 carries. He had -4 yards and zero TDs. Most effective at this level was Brian Westbrook, who had 4 rushing and 1 receiving TD on 7 carries and 4 targets).
The question is, will anything change in 2008? It seems likely that Mendenhall will at least get a shot at all the Davenport carries, and if he doesn't fumble, will probably be at least as effective as Davenport. So you still could look at Parker as ranking 20+ in number of goal line touches in 2008. Still, if he manages to score 4 TDs from outside the 5, like he did in 2006, he'd be a good value where he's being drafted. Given how dangerous Parker is in the open field, I think it's reasonable to project him for at least 5 TDs, even with a goal-line vulture on the team.
pollardsvision
Footballguy
i think FWP could provide some value this year, however, i'd prefer just to wait and get selvin young.
As a pittsburgh local, i must say that willie gets no where near the handles inside the 10 as the bus got (hence the lower TD points) Ben has been runnning himself, or tossing a short TD pass.... Another note is ben was passing the ball more last season than any pittsburgh QB has passed the ball in probably 30 years or terry brad era. I think parker is a nice 2 or 3 RB but then again, i would DOUBT that ben will throw the ball half as much this season. Time to bring the domination of ball possession back 
Godsbrother
Footballguy
Then you've been hearing WRONG. Parker broke a non-weight bearing bone in his leg almost 9 months ago. He is 100% and has not lost a step. I've seen him in camp & the few carries he's had in preseason and he looks great.
The Steelers drafted Mendenall because they thought he was the best player available and because they were disappointed in Davenport, both on and off the field. They want Mendenhall to take some off the load off Parker who had been carrying the ball way too much.Mendenhall is going to get his carries but Parker is the unquestioned starter. I expect FWP to get about 60% of the Steelers carries, slightly down from last year.
