Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
All my drafts, initial WW moves, and etc are over - so it's time to put the hypotheticals aside and make some predictions. WR predictions to follow before the start of the season.
A few notes... these are mostly dynasty focused, and supersede any previous comments I may have made. 'Elite' means that the rookies' top three career season FF Points/Game scores result in a cumulative total of 50+ (PPR). 'Successful' would indicate a cumulative total of 35-50 across three best seasons.
Comments welcome, of course. But since I've gone out on some limbs, I'd love to see people taking the challenge of rating at least all 27 of the rookie RBs. Sniping at one or two is too easy - I'm sure you agree
Rookies:
Elite, gold standard, can't miss unless injured: Mendenhall, Stewart
Elite, starter-quality back by 2nd year: Felix Jones (almost certain to gain 10+ pounds and improve dramatically after reaching NFL)
Successful, but probably not elite: Rice, Parmele (may have to wait for opportunity)
Weight gain or maintenance absolutely critical to success (min weight to be 'successful' - currently listed below that weight): Slaton (206/7), Forte (218/9), Hightower (226/7)
Longshot, but can't rule out: Ryan Torain (would 40-time/draft position have been much better without injury senior season?)
Career backups, role-players (including FBs) or flops: C Boyd, T Brown, J Charles, T Choice, J Felton, J Forsett, J Hester, M Hart, L Hilliard, P Hillis, X Omon, A Patrick, O Schmitt, K Smith, M Thomas, C Washington
Unknown: McFadden, Johnson (not enough data to make a prediction - could be elite, but high risk compared to Mendenhall and Stewart)
Players from earlier draft classes, and other uncertain situations:
Lions: there is no starter-quality RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent NFL RBs.
Bears: Kevin Jones is a better RB than Matt Forte, and if he stays healthy will be a starting RB again in the NFL
Packers: There's no reason to believe Grant's not legit, but so is Brandon Jackson. Jackson will develop behind Grant, but will eventually start somewhere.
Seahawks: there is no starter-quality RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent starting RBs.
Cardinals: Hightower could be good if he can stay at his combine weight of 226. And it's still too soon to write J.J. Arrington off.
Cowboys: Barber and Jones are both legit. True RBBC no later than 2009.
Eagles: no one behind Westbrook. Booker will prove to be a horrible signing. Moats should have been better than he's turned out to be (biggest system whiff).
Giants: Several decent role players, but no true long-term starter. Danny Ware is worth watching as a deeeeeep sleeper.
Saints: Bush will never be a #1 RB; and will lose touches over 2008 and 2009. Thomas is not the answer.
Panthers: Stewart is elite, but no reason De Will can't be successful as a starter. Panthers didn't need to draft another back.
Bucs: there is no long-term starting RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent starting RBs.
Atlanta: Turner's stuck in O-line hell, but he's a legit NFL starter.
Bengals: If Rudi is back to 225 and healthy he might have one good season left (playing at 215 was a terrible idea). If Perry is really at 224+ and the injuries haven't robbed him of speed/quickness he's a legit NFL-quality starter (as it is, I suspect he's borderline).
Steelers: Mendenhall takes over as lead back from Parker by end of season or opening day 2009. Gary Russell worth watching as a deeeeeep sleeper.
Ravens: Rice could push McGahee sooner than expected, but I'm less confident about my prediction for him than anyone else.
Patriots: The question isn't whether or not Lamont Jordan will play the Sammy Morris role (a given - he's better than Morris) - it's whether or not he'll play the Corey Dillon role. He could be a better all-round back than Maroney in 2008. All 'if healthy' of course.
Jets: Thomas Jones had worst O-line luck of any RB drafted after 1997. Musa Smith probably done in by previous rash of injuries, but had talent at one time. Washington, et al will never rise above role players.
Dolphins: what a mess. Brown super-talented, but injured. Ricky super-talented, but also a 31 year old coming off long layoff. Parmele far more talented than getting credit for, but raw. Best 1-2-3 punch of any NFL team when healthy.
Chargers: no one behind LT now that Turner's gone.
Raiders: no one like McFadden drafted in last ten years. Suspect he'll be successful, maybe elite. But he's higher risk than you should take with the #4 pick.
Broncos: no multi-year starters on the roster today. Broncos will be searching for a RB again next year.
Jacksonville: MJD had misfortune of being stuck behind HOF-quality Taylor first two seasons. The next LT starting in 2008 or 2009. Buy.
Houston: Green is done. Chris Brown is decent when healthy, but his unique super tall/lean body frame may make him a rare exception to the rule that there's no such thing as an 'injury-prone' NFL RB. Chris Taylor is a better back than Walker and Slaton (unless Slaton goes over 205 pounds).
Indy: Addai is a bit above average back in a great situation. His career is 100% linked to Manning's.
Tennessee: White is talented, but motivation/fitness remain open questions. Johnson is super-talented, but size remains open question. Chris Henry being written off far too soon - could still be successful (watch his performance relative to White's this season).
Vikings, Rams, 49ers, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Chiefs - no one worth mentioning beyond obvious starters.
A few notes... these are mostly dynasty focused, and supersede any previous comments I may have made. 'Elite' means that the rookies' top three career season FF Points/Game scores result in a cumulative total of 50+ (PPR). 'Successful' would indicate a cumulative total of 35-50 across three best seasons.
Comments welcome, of course. But since I've gone out on some limbs, I'd love to see people taking the challenge of rating at least all 27 of the rookie RBs. Sniping at one or two is too easy - I'm sure you agree
Rookies:
Elite, gold standard, can't miss unless injured: Mendenhall, Stewart
Elite, starter-quality back by 2nd year: Felix Jones (almost certain to gain 10+ pounds and improve dramatically after reaching NFL)
Successful, but probably not elite: Rice, Parmele (may have to wait for opportunity)
Weight gain or maintenance absolutely critical to success (min weight to be 'successful' - currently listed below that weight): Slaton (206/7), Forte (218/9), Hightower (226/7)
Longshot, but can't rule out: Ryan Torain (would 40-time/draft position have been much better without injury senior season?)
Career backups, role-players (including FBs) or flops: C Boyd, T Brown, J Charles, T Choice, J Felton, J Forsett, J Hester, M Hart, L Hilliard, P Hillis, X Omon, A Patrick, O Schmitt, K Smith, M Thomas, C Washington
Unknown: McFadden, Johnson (not enough data to make a prediction - could be elite, but high risk compared to Mendenhall and Stewart)
Players from earlier draft classes, and other uncertain situations:
Lions: there is no starter-quality RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent NFL RBs.
Bears: Kevin Jones is a better RB than Matt Forte, and if he stays healthy will be a starting RB again in the NFL
Packers: There's no reason to believe Grant's not legit, but so is Brandon Jackson. Jackson will develop behind Grant, but will eventually start somewhere.
Seahawks: there is no starter-quality RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent starting RBs.
Cardinals: Hightower could be good if he can stay at his combine weight of 226. And it's still too soon to write J.J. Arrington off.
Cowboys: Barber and Jones are both legit. True RBBC no later than 2009.
Eagles: no one behind Westbrook. Booker will prove to be a horrible signing. Moats should have been better than he's turned out to be (biggest system whiff).
Giants: Several decent role players, but no true long-term starter. Danny Ware is worth watching as a deeeeeep sleeper.
Saints: Bush will never be a #1 RB; and will lose touches over 2008 and 2009. Thomas is not the answer.
Panthers: Stewart is elite, but no reason De Will can't be successful as a starter. Panthers didn't need to draft another back.
Bucs: there is no long-term starting RB on the roster today. Very unlikely that any of them turn into consistent starting RBs.
Atlanta: Turner's stuck in O-line hell, but he's a legit NFL starter.
Bengals: If Rudi is back to 225 and healthy he might have one good season left (playing at 215 was a terrible idea). If Perry is really at 224+ and the injuries haven't robbed him of speed/quickness he's a legit NFL-quality starter (as it is, I suspect he's borderline).
Steelers: Mendenhall takes over as lead back from Parker by end of season or opening day 2009. Gary Russell worth watching as a deeeeeep sleeper.
Ravens: Rice could push McGahee sooner than expected, but I'm less confident about my prediction for him than anyone else.
Patriots: The question isn't whether or not Lamont Jordan will play the Sammy Morris role (a given - he's better than Morris) - it's whether or not he'll play the Corey Dillon role. He could be a better all-round back than Maroney in 2008. All 'if healthy' of course.
Jets: Thomas Jones had worst O-line luck of any RB drafted after 1997. Musa Smith probably done in by previous rash of injuries, but had talent at one time. Washington, et al will never rise above role players.
Dolphins: what a mess. Brown super-talented, but injured. Ricky super-talented, but also a 31 year old coming off long layoff. Parmele far more talented than getting credit for, but raw. Best 1-2-3 punch of any NFL team when healthy.
Chargers: no one behind LT now that Turner's gone.
Raiders: no one like McFadden drafted in last ten years. Suspect he'll be successful, maybe elite. But he's higher risk than you should take with the #4 pick.
Broncos: no multi-year starters on the roster today. Broncos will be searching for a RB again next year.
Jacksonville: MJD had misfortune of being stuck behind HOF-quality Taylor first two seasons. The next LT starting in 2008 or 2009. Buy.
Houston: Green is done. Chris Brown is decent when healthy, but his unique super tall/lean body frame may make him a rare exception to the rule that there's no such thing as an 'injury-prone' NFL RB. Chris Taylor is a better back than Walker and Slaton (unless Slaton goes over 205 pounds).
Indy: Addai is a bit above average back in a great situation. His career is 100% linked to Manning's.
Tennessee: White is talented, but motivation/fitness remain open questions. Johnson is super-talented, but size remains open question. Chris Henry being written off far too soon - could still be successful (watch his performance relative to White's this season).
Vikings, Rams, 49ers, Redskins, Browns, Bills, Chiefs - no one worth mentioning beyond obvious starters.
Seriously though, interesting stuff. I actually agree with a lot of your conclusions.
