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Lamar Miller, 2016, Infinity and beyond (1 Viewer)

Evil G

Evil G

Footballguy
This guy stands to inherit the wind in what looks to be a stronger offense for 2013. Young QB with potential, better WRs.

In Dynasty play, he's been a buy low (if you can) for a little while now. He's been discussed in other threads, but here's one just for him.

Lamar has seen a big jump in his stock price since Reggie left town. However, his potential is being measured with a very small sample size, and Miami is still Miami until we're shown otherwise...

Furthermore, the Dolphins may dilute his (clear?) status as the starter if they go for an RB in the Draft. Conversely, Daniel Thomas has essentially been the SUCK and looks to impose no threat barring injury.

Current value in a start up has him somewhere in the 4th round, from what I've seen.

What do you folks think of his Dynasty value for 2013 and onward?

 
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I am not getting the hype on this guy. I grabbed him in several leagues last September after his one good game, hoping he could be a good play at some point, but even when Bush got hurt, his touches were still pretty limited. He'll need to have a great training camp and be hyped by reliable sources before he is on my radar in 2013.

 
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I think he's one of the more overvalued dynasty assets right now, and trades this offseason have confirmed it. But then, I was never a believer.

 
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright

 
The hype is pretty high, but there are a lot of positive signs. Good college production in 2011, looked good on a small sample size as a rookie, very good measurables and size, pretty much nothing but positive things being said by Dolphins staff this offseason, clear path to be a starter on a possibly rising offense. The hype is probably higher than it should be, but it isn't like he is coming out of nowhere.

 
Lott said:
The hype is pretty high, but there are a lot of positive signs. Good college production in 2011, looked good on a small sample size as a rookie, very good measurables and size, pretty much nothing but positive things being said by Dolphins staff this offseason, clear path to be a starter on a possibly rising offense. The hype is probably higher than it should be, but it isn't like he is coming out of nowhere.
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And if all this happens and he performs than others will be paying three times the price. What is Alfred Morris worth today again.

I like for his value to increase and to have a great season.

 
According to ADP the RBs right before him are

Ridley - lower upside, lower risk

McFadden - higher upside, lower risk

MJD - higher upside, equal (but different) risk

and the RBs right after him are

Lacy - equal upside, equal risk

Sproles - equal (but different) upside, lower risk

Mathews - equal upside, equal risk

He's already being valued as a mid RB2 but he should be.

If you convert Sproles or MJD into Miller, you know why you are doing it, and what the risk is.

It's legitimate to prefer Miller's talent to Lacy's or Ridley's.

 
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
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They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.

 
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
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They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.
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depends how you define day 2 (thanks Roger). I'm not discounting them grabbing a 4th-7th rounder. But if they take a 2nd/3rd rounder, it's a different story. I don't see a 4th-7th rounder (except if someone drops like he did) as a threat to his carries or upside

 
DaveL said:
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
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They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.
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depends how you define day 2 (thanks Roger). I'm not discounting them grabbing a 4th-7th rounder. But if they take a 2nd/3rd rounder, it's a different story. I don't see a 4th-7th rounder (except if someone drops like he did) as a threat to his carries or upside
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Why is a 2nd or 3rd rounder a different story?

 
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
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They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.
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depends how you define day 2 (thanks Roger). I'm not discounting them grabbing a 4th-7th rounder. But if they take a 2nd/3rd rounder, it's a different story. I don't see a 4th-7th rounder (except if someone drops like he did) as a threat to his carries or upside
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Why is a 2nd or 3rd rounder a different story?
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Well, it would imply the Dolphins don't believe in Miller as much as some dynasty owners.
 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Well, it would imply the Dolphins don't believe in Miller as much as some dynasty owners.
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Just like Houston didn't believe in Foster. A 2nd is likely a road to RBBC but still a matchup Miller can win.

I wouldn't want Miami to draft Lacy, Michael or Bernard, but pretty much anyone else I don't think it would matter even if it was a 2nd round pick.

 
So Miller for pick 20 in this year's rookie draft probably isn't the best trade someone could have made this offseason.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
Click to expand...
They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.
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depends how you define day 2 (thanks Roger). I'm not discounting them grabbing a 4th-7th rounder. But if they take a 2nd/3rd rounder, it's a different story. I don't see a 4th-7th rounder (except if someone drops like he did) as a threat to his carries or upside
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Why is a 2nd or 3rd rounder a different story?
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Well, it would imply the Dolphins don't believe in Miller as much as some dynasty owners.
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It would? Brian Leonard was a 2nd round pick on a team with an in-his-prime S. Jackson. Toby Gerhart was a 2nd round RB on a team with Adrian Peterson. Other 2nd and 3rd round guys over the last few years: Glen Coffee, Kenny Irons, Lorenzo Booker, Tony Hunt, Garrett Wolfe, Alex Green. Even guys like Vereen, Leshoure, and the Dolphin's very own D. Thomas haven't been given anything.

What's the point? Being a 2nd or 3rd round pick doesn't guarantee anything in terms of winning a job. Sure, there are some great RBs in the NFL that were taken in the 2nd round (McCoy, Rice, MJD, for example). But those guys succeeded because of their talent level, not because they were selected in the 2nd round. And as you can see, some RBs are drafted in the 2nd round and it has absolutely nothing to do with the amount of confidence or lack thereof that a team has in its RB. Being picked in the 2nd or 3rd round has not historically meant getting a starting job that first year unless: 1) There is no established starter or 2) There was an injury ahead of them. I posted a thread about this a couple years ago and it's incredibly rare over the last several years for a 2nd or 3rd round pick RB to beat out a guy who is the starter on day 1.

Some will argue that L. Miller doesn't have the starting job yet. That's fine if you believe that, but the Dolphins organization has said otherwise, both in words (see multiple comments by Ireland, et. al) and in actions (Reggie Bush gone despite wanting to stay).

In the end, there's only a couple RBs that I'd be worried about and that's Lacy and maybe Bernard. But I'd be as worried if they were taken in the 5th round as I would be if they were taken in the 2nd round because it's more about talent level than where they are selected. If anyone else goes there, no matter what round, why would it lower his value in my eyes if I feel he's the superior back? If you feel that being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round means you get a crack at the starting job (especially in the 1st year), then you'll have to show some examples. The 2nd/3rd rounders that got the job did so because of what they were on the field, not because of where they were drafted.

1st round draft picks are a completely different story and they are the exact opposite. Almost without fail, a 1st round RB is going to be given the chance to have the starting job at some point on the team that drafted them. If Miami takes a RB in the 1st, all bets are off. I think the chances of that happening are slim to none.

So no, I don't think it would imply the Dolphins don't believe in Miller at all if they took a RB in the 2nd round or later. In fact, if that happens and a Miller owner panics, you better be happy and jump right in if you like him now because it's likely the cheapest you'll get him from here on out if he's able to succeed.

 
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The Dolphins are a rebuilding team with lots of holes on their roster. If they invest a 2nd round draft pick into the RB position, it says a LOT. Not because 2nd round RB's historically produce right away or threaten the starter's job security (as you correctly pointed out, this is not usually the case) but because that is a huge investment to make in a RB when you already have one you supposedly really like.

It has nothing to do with perceived talent level or perceived threat to production in year one, or even two. It simply shows that the Dolphins feel the need to invest a very valuable resource into another RB.

I don't think it will happen, but to say that if it DOES happen, it's not worrisome for Miller's outlook is simply untrue, despite most of what you say being true. Because the 2nd rounder being used on another RB would show very clearly the Dolphins mindset--that they NEED another RB. Hypothetically they could feel this way and still love Miller, implying an interest in a very strong running game...but it would still spell a future RBBC.

 
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The Dolphins to me look like a team going all in. They went 7-9 last year and added a lot of offensive fire power.

Also they have 2 2nds and 2 3rds this year.

Other than replacing Jake Long they don't really have any glaring holes. They could use a CB. They could use a DE to pair with Wake. But nothing big.

However, GB mindset is to not invest in RB. Have to think Philbin shares that thinking to some degree.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
The Dolphins are a rebuilding team with lots of holes on their roster. If they invest a 2nd round draft pick into the RB position, it says a LOT.
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I think Mia is in much better shape than you're giving them credit for. They were 7-9 last year with a rookie QB starting most of the time. There is more talent on that team than you think. Saying they are rebuilding is a bit much IMO. As pointed out, Mia has 2 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks. They could easily endup taking a RB simply because they see him as the BPA in either of those rounds.
 
They have a RB opening on the roster, so they'll bring someone in no matter what. A RB taken somewhat early probably means more about Daniel Thomas' playing time / roster spot than it does about Lamar Miller's.

 
Crippler said:
Lott said:
The hype is pretty high, but there are a lot of positive signs. Good college production in 2011, looked good on a small sample size as a rookie, very good measurables and size, pretty much nothing but positive things being said by Dolphins staff this offseason, clear path to be a starter on a possibly rising offense. The hype is probably higher than it should be, but it isn't like he is coming out of nowhere.
Click to expand...
And if all this happens and he performs than others will be paying three times the price. What is Alfred Morris worth today again.

I like for his value to increase and to have a great season.
Click to expand...
And that's the truth of it right there.

I'm in an auction league where stud RB's go for $200+. No one ever buys a $50 RB hoping they got a $50 RB. You spend $50 on a RB hoping he can perform like a $200 and you think his odds are better of doing that than the RB you were only willing to spend $25 on.

 
jurb26 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
The Dolphins are a rebuilding team with lots of holes on their roster. If they invest a 2nd round draft pick into the RB position, it says a LOT.
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I think Mia is in much better shape than you're giving them credit for. They were 7-9 last year with a rookie QB starting most of the time. There is more talent on that team than you think. Saying they are rebuilding is a bit much IMO. As pointed out, Mia has 2 2nd round picks and 2 3rd round picks. They could easily endup taking a RB simply because they see him as the BPA in either of those rounds.
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True. But if you own Miller, do you really want any competition? I don't.

I think Miller can be decent and still be a RB2 if he gets the touches. If they bring in a RB who can make it a competition, you kinda need for him to be great to keep a tight hold on the touches. People aren't investing in Miller to get RBBC touches.

 
gianmarco said:
DaveL said:
Next Friday will be telling. If they grab a day 2 RB, I'd be worried as a dynasty owner. If they don't, the future's bright
Click to expand...
They are definitely grabbing a day 2 RB. Do you think they going into the season with D. Thomas as the only backup? If you believe in his talent, grabbing a day 2 RB should have 0 impact on Miller's potential in 2013 and beyond. If Miller is good enough, he'll do well with the job this year and that will be that. If he doesn't, then they'll move on at some point in time. Barring them grabbing a RB in the 1st round, whatever they do in the draft shouldn't cause any worry at all for a dynasty owner unless you think the guy they draft is more talented than Miller. I don't see a RB in this class that I'd say that about, so it's clear sailing for me.
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Agree with the idea of "if you have belief in him" but I don't think the Dolphins not grabbing a RB in the 1st is the indicator. In the NFL, RBs are pretty much interchangeable assembly parts, sans the unique few that come along from time to time. THe NFL, as a whole, will likely not draft RBs high. So I think you need to look deeper and consider the type of back they get more than when they get him.

If the Dolphins, grab one of the perceived better backs in this draft, even in the 3rd, I think Miller owners might need to be concerned.

Or, lets say that Lacy and Giovanni go in the 2nd or just anywhere they go and then all of a sudden ALL The RBS start falling anfd being ignored. That's not saying anything more than that is the supply and demand of it all. So what happens if, suddenly the Dolphins make a small trade and come up 7-8 spots and grab one at the end of the 3rd? WHat does that suggest?

I think it bears watching and the idea of "anything after a 1st is safE" is not necessarily true.

 
Riffraff said:
They have a RB opening on the roster, so they'll bring someone in no matter what. A RB taken somewhat early probably means more about Daniel Thomas' playing time / roster spot than it does about Lamar Miller's.
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Boy have I read that story before. The Giants last year, the Texans three years ago. I'm not going to say that teams DON'T have these mindsets from time to time but I will say the Dolphins are not one of the teams who have the luxury of being able to think like this. The Texans can bring in a guy just for what if. The Giants, the Patriots, teams that have very few holes or good depth at the position can to. But when you have multiple holes on your team, you shouldn't be pulling a Carolina and stuffing a glut at one position at the sake of others. The Dolphins would be much better off rounding their team out rather than concerining themselves about going 3 deep at arguably the most replaceable position on the field.

 
thriftyrocker said:
According to ADP the RBs right before him are Ridley - lower upside, lower riskMcFadden - higher upside, lower riskMJD - higher upside, equal (but different) risk and the RBs right after him are Lacy - equal upside, equal riskSproles - equal (but different) upside, lower riskMathews - equal upside, equal risk He's already being valued as a mid RB2 but he should be. If you convert Sproles or MJD into Miller, you know why you are doing it, and what the risk is. It's legitimate to prefer Miller's talent to Lacy's or Ridley's.
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I think it depends upon how you define upside. Miller is 21 years old. If he hits, his long term dynasty value is much, much higher than MJD or Sproles. To me, in dynasty you have to factor longevity into any discussion of upside. Whenever you have a 21 year old RB who is penciled in as the starter, the upside is very, very high. Not even comparable to the dynasty upside of Sproles. I do agree that there is real downside as it is possible the Dolphins add a bigger RB in round 2 or 3 and it ends up being a timeshare. Or he could flop as the starter and never be particularly fantasy relevant.
 
bengalbuck said:
thriftyrocker said:
According to ADP the RBs right before him are Ridley - lower upside, lower riskMcFadden - higher upside, lower riskMJD - higher upside, equal (but different) risk and the RBs right after him are Lacy - equal upside, equal riskSproles - equal (but different) upside, lower riskMathews - equal upside, equal risk He's already being valued as a mid RB2 but he should be. If you convert Sproles or MJD into Miller, you know why you are doing it, and what the risk is. It's legitimate to prefer Miller's talent to Lacy's or Ridley's.
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I think it depends upon how you define upside. Miller is 21 years old. If he hits, his long term dynasty value is much, much higher than MJD or Sproles.To me, in dynasty you have to factor longevity into any discussion of upside. Whenever you have a 21 year old RB who is penciled in as the starter, the upside is very, very high. Not even comparable to the dynasty upside of Sproles.I do agree that there is real downside as it is possible the Dolphins add a bigger RB in round 2 or 3 and it ends up being a timeshare. Or he could flop as the starter and never be particularly fantasy relevant.
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Reason I said "equal (but different)" is based on expected production not expected trade value. Sproles and MJD are straddling the cliff now and surely that affects their trade value both now and in the future. But they can be top 5 RB short term, and I have no reason to think Lamar will be that good. More realistically I think he can be top 15. How you value those is subjective (short term high upside vs long term medium upside). Personally I would take the youth and would have cashed out on those other guys years ago, but there's lots of dynasty players who take the opposite approach.

 
Sabertooth said:
I am considering offering him for Ryan Mathews...Sounds close but Mathews to me has shown a ton more.
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Thats not really a fair comparison. Matthews has been in the league longer. And had no competition really for carries. That's like me comparing Isaac Redman to Ronnie HIllman and saying Redman is way better long term for Dyn cause he has shown me more. Well yeah of course he has. :doh:

 
jacobo_moses said:
Sabertooth said:
I am considering offering him for Ryan Mathews...Sounds close but Mathews to me has shown a ton more.
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Thats not really a fair comparison. Matthews has been in the league longer. And had no competition really for carries. That's like me comparing Isaac Redman to Ronnie HIllman and saying Redman is way better long term for Dyn cause he has shown me more. Well yeah of course he has. :doh:
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Does not matter what he would do. I would laugh right now if the owner of Matthews came asking for Lamar straight up. Would take something special to pry him out of my hands. But I am an owner also and feel very good about him.

 
Ernol said:
humpback said:
gianmarco said:
Not taking a 2nd rounder now after this trade. :coffee:
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Delete...
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Gotta give credit to Gianmarco. He called the rise of Miller (even with nothing happening in the offseason) and now the hype is in full force.
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Thank you, sir. Last "roadblock" averted. Without taking a single snap yet, value exponentially higher. The front office in Miami had been hinting at this all along. If the guy does anything positive this year, especially if he starts off with some good starts, you're looking at potential top 5 dynasty RB value here.
 
gianmarco said:
Thank you, sir.Last "roadblock" averted. Without taking a single snap yet, value exponentially higher. The front office in Miami had been hinting at this all along.If the guy does anything positive this year, especially if he starts off with some good starts, you're looking at potential top 5 dynasty RB value here.
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I hope you picked him up in all your leagues first... :moneybag:

 
http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/59171/show-and-prove-dolphins-rb-lamar-miller

Show and prove: Dolphins RB Lamar Miller
By James Walker | ESPN.com

The AFC East blog will begin its 2013 "Show and Prove" series this week. We will examine key players in the division who have a lot to prove this upcoming season.

Let’s start with Miami Dolphins tailback Lamar Miller, who will be a first-year starter.

2012 stats: 51 carries, 250 yards, one TD

What he has to prove: Miller must prove that he can carry the load in his second season. He showed a lot of potential in 2012 by leading the Dolphins with 4.9 yards per carry, but this year will be different with the departure of former starter Reggie Bush to free agency. Miller’s carries could increase from 51 last season to more than 200. That's a big jump. Miller had injury issues in college and must prove his durability. Miller also is a bit undersized and struggled mightily with pass protection. That’s a major focus for Miller if he wants to be the long-term solution at tailback in Miami.

Walker’s 2013 outlook: I liked what I saw from Miller last season. He has good burst and vision, which are two things needed from a tailback running behind Miami’s zone-blocking scheme. Miller is a better fit in that respect that Bush, who had a penchant to run east and west too often for zero or negative yards. However, I do have serious doubts about Miller as a pass blocker. Teams identified and exposed Miller last year in that area when he was in the game. He has a long way to go with taking on blocks, and I’m not sure he can make huge strides in just one offseason. Otherwise, Miami’s backfield of Miller, Daniel Thomas and potentially rookie Mike Gillislee should be solid and better than advertised.
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Faust said:
Show and prove: Dolphins RB Lamar Miller

By James Walker | ESPN.com

The AFC East blog will begin its 2013 "Show and Prove" series this week. We will examine key players in the division who have a lot to prove this upcoming season.

Let’s start with Miami Dolphins tailback Lamar Miller, who will be a first-year starter.

2012 stats: 51 carries, 250 yards, one TD

What he has to prove: Miller must prove that he can carry the load in his second season. He showed a lot of potential in 2012 by leading the Dolphins with 4.9 yards per carry, but this year will be different with the departure of former starter Reggie Bush to free agency. Miller’s carries could increase from 51 last season to more than 200. That's a big jump. Miller had injury issues in college and must prove his durability. Miller also is a bit undersized and struggled mightily with pass protection. That’s a major focus for Miller if he wants to be the long-term solution at tailback in Miami.

Walker’s 2013 outlook: I liked what I saw from Miller last season. He has good burst and vision, which are two things needed from a tailback running behind Miami’s zone-blocking scheme. Miller is a better fit in that respect that Bush, who had a penchant to run east and west too often for zero or negative yards. However, I do have serious doubts about Miller as a pass blocker. Teams identified and exposed Miller last year in that area when he was in the game. He has a long way to go with taking on blocks, and I’m not sure he can make huge strides in just one offseason. Otherwise, Miami’s backfield of Miller, Daniel Thomas and potentially rookie Mike Gillislee should be solid and better than advertised.
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I don't understand how Miller can be considered undersized.

As far as the pass blocking is concerned, haven't we heard conflicting reports here? It was a concern going into the draft, but the actual numbers somebody posted in one of these Miller threads were actually pretty good, IIRC, albeit in a smallish sample size, and didn't the coach say he was pleased how Miller handled pass protection?

Was Miller actually "exposed" last year when he was in the game? I don't watch a lot of Miami football, so actual observations would be great here.

 
Here is the coaches quote from Feb 4:


Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland singled out Lamar Miller as the player he's expecting the most growth from in 2013.
The fog is starting to clear, and it's looking more and more likely that free agent Reggie Bush will not be re-signed. "Lamar really showed some great signs of really some explosive-play opportunity," Ireland said. "He kind of shoots out of the cannon when he hits the hole. He’s got very good hands. I thought he did a very good job in his pass protection, which keeps him on the field all three downs." Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald recently reported that Miami thinks Miller can be an upgrade on Bush as a system fit in Joe Philbin's zone-run scheme. Daniel Thomas, or another veteran, would likely be Miller's backup. Miller's fantasy stock is on the upswing. Feb 4 - 6:29 PM
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Watched every game last year and can only recall one obvious missed assignment. And even on that one, I have no conclusive proof he didn't do his job on the play. Not saying he can or can't do it, but I don't think any of us can accurately say.

 
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