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David Nelson to have a pulse this week? (1 Viewer)
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doeseatplace
Footballguy
Eagles can key on Nelson and Jones split wide, but won't be able to cover a slot man, especially one this bigAmendola went 5-45-0 against them in 3 quartersTony Gonzalez 7-83-2Josh Morgan 3-63-1Pretty good play in PPR, imo
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Do you mean key on Stevie J and Jones split wide?
theoneandonly
Footballguy
I have a option in 2 ppr leagues of playing him in a 3rd wr spot and a flex spot. As of today I will be benching him for A.Brown and aging LT at flex. I just want to see more of him getting targets. With F.Jax and 3wrs I just dont trust Nelson for consistent production as of yet. He also burned me last week so that may be part of it.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Correct. I believ Nnamdi always plays the outside, and Samuel will take the other wideout, leaving DRC (when he's in the game) on Nelson
doeseatplace
Footballguy
I'm going the other way and sitting Brown for Nelson, but its a close call. Brown has been so darn consistent for me so its hard to bench him. But I am swayed by the uncertainty with almost all aspects of Pittsburgh O, a decent Titatns pass D and the Nelson matchup against the Eagles.I could definitely see going the other way and going with the regular points Antonio has deliveredDisclaimer: I'm in 15th place out of 16, so I have to take a few chances to try and get back in the game and I see Nelson's ceiling much higher than Brown's this week
kimbosliced
Footballguy
How do you feel about Nelson over Crabtree as a WR2?
doeseatplace
Footballguy
TB is kind of the opposite of Philly...pretty bad against receivers split out, but ok against the slot. I see Crabtree as a better play than Nelson (and a very strong play regardless of comps) if (a) he's healthy and (b) Bad Alex doesn't show up
bagger
Footballguy
starting him with confidence.
kimbosliced
Footballguy
Appears to be healthy...now all that matters is Bad Alex Smith stays away. Harbaugh has done a good job so far this season.
I've had to make this same decision, and whoever I'm don't start I'm going to have to drop (short bench, massive bye week issues). I'm rolling with Nelson for the reasons mentioned...Philly is weak up the middle and gets torched by tight ends, Buffalo doesn't have a quality tight end, but does have a 6'5" slot receiver. I'm expecting Philly to put points on the board, and Buffalo having to respond. I struggled good argument for Crabtree. Would love to hear one. Certainly more talanted than Nelson, but nothing but a flash here and there in 3 years.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
vs TB this year:C Johnson 6-88-2/Burleson 5-60-0Harvin 7-76-0R White 9-140-0/J Jones 6-115-0Garcon 2-146-2/ Wayne 4-59-0The matchup is pretty favorable
kimbosliced
Footballguy
yeah, I'm gonna role with Crabtree after those stats. Thanks man.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Disagree with the last part. If Brown finally hits paydirt, Id bet he has better numbers than Nelson and has a higher ceiling. Both have a similar floor though....and related to other posts, Id start Nelson over Crabtree for the reasons stated with Nelson's matchup. Come on now with those stats of WRs vs TB. The only 1 that is in the tier of Crabtree is Burleson. The rest are stud's or proven WR2s
doeseatplace
Footballguy
KP--I'll buy your opinion on Brown's ceiling. When he breaks out--and he will, I know--his ceiling shoots way past Nelson's. I just don't think he will this week, due to the factors I stated in my OP. In a PPR league (and mine gives 2 PPR), Nelson looks a lot stronger this week.As for the stats, I see your point comparing very good WRs to Crabtree. He clearly hasn't risen to that level yet, and may never. So let's break down the data a different way.Against DET, TB Def allowed Stafford his highest completion rate all year. TB D alowed Stafford his second highest yardage total of the year.Against MIN, TB Def allowed McNabb his highest passing yardage total all year.Against ATL, TB Def allowed Ryan his highest passing yardage total all year.Against IND, TB Def allowed Indy QBs their highest passing yardage total all year. TB D is also the only team to allow 2 passing TDs to IndyClearly a trend here, whether the passing offense is strong like DET or ATL, or miserable, like MIN or IND. Crabtree is no Megatron, or Roddy, or even Julio Jones. But TB D can't cover, and passing offenses have a field day against them'Kenny Powers said:
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Philly has largely taken away most prime time WRs against them this season. Julio Jones 2/29, Nicks 3/35, R.White 3/23 but did have a TD...I don't think Nelson will go off but he might scrape 8-10 together.
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Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
umm have you been watching Buffalo this year? Chandler has been quite effective. Not sure why you don't think he's a quality TE.'otis68 said:
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
That would bode poorly for stevie J. I think nelson is a good play in what could be a shootout.I also don't like playing players vs Tampa. They take the air out of the ball and kill so much clock in the process. I prefer to get in a shootout with the eagles/pats/bills/panthers/pack etc if given the preference.
flooredyas
Footballguy
Then that would mean taking Steve Johnson out of the equation then wouldn't it?That would help to a degree. With Jones, Chandler, Nelson and Jackson left for opportunity. I feel that Jackson would draw quite a bit of attention, leaving Nelson able to see more targets, as Buffalo should be forced into passing a lot this weekend. Could be wrong about him getting the numbers, but I think more along the lines of 8/97/1.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Chandler has 6 catches for 34 yards over the last 3 WEEKS! Only reason he's even been fantasy relevant are the targets inside the 10, which does affect Nelson to a degree, but hardly a reason to start/sit him.
Dought Man
Footballguy
Nope, this week is Steve Johnson's week. He is due for a 120/2 game...
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I think the Eagles are going to need to start addressing the big hole in the run defense by cheating a Safety into the box. They are really struggling against the run and they have made it clear they are going to make changes to address it. Going to be hard against the spread Buffalo runs, but I suspect they are going to try to cheat anyways.
That puts Asomugha man-to-man on Stevie Johnson. As good as I think Johnson is, I have to believe that take Stevie out of the equation 80% of the time at least. Then you probably have Samuel and Rodgers-Cromartie mixing zone/man-to-man on Jones and Nelson. Maybe even mixing Hansen on the dime sets.
I do think Buffalo is going to try to do what they do - spread the defense out and attack on the ground first. The D Line of Philadelphia is banged up. If they are successful and Philadephia has to cheat, which I suspect they will have to gamble at least some, Nelson should have a good day. Really depends heavily if Samuel is lined up inside on Nelson or he is matched up with Rodgers-Cromartie.
I think Nelson is solid in a PPR, but I don't see him going over 80 yards in a standard. Touchdowns are hard to predict. I suspect Fred Jackson scores most of the TDS. Just my thoughts.
That puts Asomugha man-to-man on Stevie Johnson. As good as I think Johnson is, I have to believe that take Stevie out of the equation 80% of the time at least. Then you probably have Samuel and Rodgers-Cromartie mixing zone/man-to-man on Jones and Nelson. Maybe even mixing Hansen on the dime sets.
I do think Buffalo is going to try to do what they do - spread the defense out and attack on the ground first. The D Line of Philadelphia is banged up. If they are successful and Philadephia has to cheat, which I suspect they will have to gamble at least some, Nelson should have a good day. Really depends heavily if Samuel is lined up inside on Nelson or he is matched up with Rodgers-Cromartie.
I think Nelson is solid in a PPR, but I don't see him going over 80 yards in a standard. Touchdowns are hard to predict. I suspect Fred Jackson scores most of the TDS. Just my thoughts.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
From what I saw on NFL Fantasy Live today (FWIW), they made it sound/look like Nnamdi isnt exactly shutting people down so far. On that note, Id just say dont expect Stevie to get shut down and not get targets because he's being covered by the Dream Team savior if youre a Nelson owner.
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Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Asomugha has not been used in man-to-man alot (if not most) of the time. There are definitely scheme issues with the Philadelphia D right now. Besides the injury issues.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Apparently Rodgers-Cromartie will be covering Nelson in the slot.
According to Silva at Roto, this will be the first time in Rodgers-Cromartie's career he has covered a slot receiver. Interesting.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38967/179/matchups-take-ryan-off-ice
According to Silva at Roto, this will be the first time in Rodgers-Cromartie's career he has covered a slot receiver. Interesting.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/38967/179/matchups-take-ryan-off-ice
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
And a touchdown. With Jones injured, maybe you should drop him . . .
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Im going to try to trade him since his pt totals still look decent, otherwise I'll probably drop him because he's at the end of my bench at this pt
any idea why he is so uninvolved? even after jones was injured he had 0 catches.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
With Asomugha on Johnson, the defense focused on Nelson. He was doubled alot. He is the reason Roosevelt got so many targets. Strategy didn't work. At least in the not fantasy world.
Mr Rodgers neighborhood
Footballguy
2nd half of the Pats game? The Pats decided to shut him down. The Pats are known to take away one player from the other team and make said team beat them with other guys. Cincy just has a great defense.I think it's too early to give up on him right now.
packersfan
Footballguy
All depends who's out there in your league. The TD today was nice but he only has three receptions in his last 10 quarters. There's little reason to feel good about him right now. In shallow leagues or ones with tight roster limits I think he's definitely droppable if more productive WRs are available.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I dont understand why these teams would focus on Nelson instead of Stevie Johnson
shadyridr
Footballguy
cuz it makes people feel better about their ww pickup
Dought Man
Footballguy
THIS. As if the Eagles schemed all week to stop David Nelson. LMAO
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
Did you even read the thread before commenting? The Eagles had a shutdown CB on Johnson (i.e. they schemed to take out Johnson). That allowed them to take the #2 option out with mixed double coverages also. Neither player had an impact, so I'm thinking the scheme worked. Its just other players stepped up and beat them. Namely, Fred Jackson and Nate Roosevelt.FWI - The eagles have some pretty good CBs. Its stopping the run they are struggling with. Edit to Add: No disrespect intended. But dang, please read before commenting. Especially if you are just commenting to be a tool D-Man.'Dought Man said:
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packersfan
Footballguy
Given how infrequently he's been targeted the past 10 quarters, I'm not sure it's accurate to call Nelson the No. 2 WR - even with Jones out.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
That's what I was wondering. Nelson only has 5 looks over these last 2 weeks, where have all the targets been going in those 2 games? I still think he's a hold, especially with Jones going down. You have to think they start going back to him at some point. For what it's worth they did run the ball an awful lot this past week, and Jackson was very effective. He saw his season high in carries and receptions.
packersfan
Footballguy
Yup, they did a great job there. But even with all the running there were still targets for other WRs. Nelson had as many targets as Jones, who got hurt in the first quarter. That's a pretty bad sign when you become a starter and can't get more targets then a guy who missed 3/4 of the game. With Jones out, I do think Nelson has potential but I'm really struggling with how to view him going forward given how significantly diminished his role has become. Opportunity is great, but it only matters if you're involved in the offense and right now Nelson really isn't. Will that change now that Jones is out? That seems to be the question. Unfortunately, I don't see any strong evidence either way, which makes it real tough to gauge Nelson's value moving forward.
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
I read somewhere that with Jones out that they will have to move to the outside since Buf is so thin at WR. The article said they expectthat to hurt Nelson's production since he would presumably be out of his comfort zone not playing in the slot and not getting the matchup against the 3rd corner/safety.'packersfan said:
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
You have to understand Buffalo's offense. It's a lot like New Orleans's offense in that Fitzpatrick is willing to spread the ball around. They're not going to force passes to guys and there isn't a WR on Buffalo that has the type of talent of an Andre Johnson or Calvin Johnson. So the guy that gets the targets each week is going to change based on the defense they're going up against and what that defense is doing.
Stevie Johnson is the most talented and will have the most consistent targets and stats, but after that, the Bills are going to throw it to whoever is open or just simply pound the ball on the ground if the game situation warrants it.
Stevie Johnson is the most talented and will have the most consistent targets and stats, but after that, the Bills are going to throw it to whoever is open or just simply pound the ball on the ground if the game situation warrants it.
teams are locking down on the Bills receivers playing man to man, with a robber in the middle of the field taking away the short dumps over the middle, in other words, taking away David Nelson's bread and butter. Defenses have realized with all of the injuries to the Bills WR's they don't have much to be afraid of on the outside.
Word out of Buffalo is that they might try and use Nelson outside this week... but we shall see, the guy is a WR in name only. He basically runs TE routes.
Search my other posts on Nelson if you guys want more details... I've written 2-3 on him.
Bills get a good matchup this week against a injured Giants team that plays mostly cover-2, should be good for Nelson
Word out of Buffalo is that they might try and use Nelson outside this week... but we shall see, the guy is a WR in name only. He basically runs TE routes.
Search my other posts on Nelson if you guys want more details... I've written 2-3 on him.
Bills get a good matchup this week against a injured Giants team that plays mostly cover-2, should be good for Nelson
packersfan
Footballguy
This sounds like a pretty strong vote against Nelson in my opinion. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be a stud player, but from a fantasy perspective you'd at least like to see him get consistent targets and that's not happening. Based on what you just wrote, it doesn't sound like it will ever happen.
Oscar
Footballguy
I have also read that Roosevelt will play the slot role moving forward. I agree that this will hurt Nelson's value and bump up Roosevelt's.
