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***2015 San Diego Chargers - Offseason News, Notes, & Analysis*** (1 Viewer)

tommyGunZ

Footballguy
Very disappointed to be starting this thread in 2014, but if we can't beat Chase Daniels with the season on the line, a playoff run was going to be short anyway.

Let's move forward.

I posted some general thoughts in the 2014 thread but they are best served here:

- Re-sign Dunlap, he's been excellent.

- Move Fluker inside.

- Move Watt back to the other guard spot

- Target a RT or C in free agency. Use a 1st (RT) or 2nd © round pick on whichever you don't acquire in FA.

- Use high pick on a CB - either our 1st or 2nd rounder.

- Convince JJohnson to come back for another year.

- Get Ingram and Attaochu on the field more. They are both defensive studs waiting to happen.

- Re-sign Flowers if he's reasonable. If he wants franchise corner money, let him walk.

- Draft a power RB in the 4th or 5th round to come in and play with BO and Woodhead. Let Mathews walk unless he wants a cheap deal loaded with incentives.

- Bring Inman back. He's a keeper.

- Re-sign Royal as long as it's reasonable. If not, let him walk.

- Trade a couple of 2016 picks for additional 2015 picks. Chargers need to win NOW, so that there is momentum for the stadium vote in 2016. All in next year.

Thoughts? Bicycle, Groovus, BoltBaker, MT, cstu, JWBaaby, Riversco, Bucky, Beerguzzler......etc - what'cha got?

 
Both lines need work. Until they improve up front, they're a borderline playoff team (as long as Rivers is around) at best.

 
Verrett looked like the real deal

Melvin Ingram and attackachou looked good too

Needs:

A WR that can get deep, seems like everything is underneath now.

Another CB

RB depth

DL Depth

Oline Depth

 
Before addressing possible personnel moves, let's examine the team's performance this season. The offense regressed pretty significantly.

The passing offense performed as follows:

380/574 (66.2%), 4296 passing yards (7.48 YPA), 31 TDs (5.4%), 18 interceptions (3.1%), 37 sacks (6.1%), 214 first downs, 93.4 passer rating

The Chargers were just #14 in attempts, and they finished better than that in all metrics other than interceptions. So this looks pretty good overall. But consider the splits:

Games 1-8: 185/271 for 2213 yards (8.17 YPA), 20 TDs, and 5 interceptions

Games 9-16: 194/301 for 2079 yards (6.91 YPA), 11 TDs, and 13 interceptions

The Chargers had a top 5 passing offense in the first half. Then their efficiency crumbled. Why? Injuries got worse, particularly at center. And Rivers was apparently playing with both a rib injury and a back injury during the second half. The schedule was also a factor; the Chargers played 3 easy opponents in the first half (JAX, NYJ, OAK) and just one (OAK) in the second half.

The rushing offense was a disaster. It performed as follows: 398 rushing attempts for 1367 yards (3.4 ypc), 6 TDs, 15 fumbles. The Chargers were #23 in attempts, #30 in yards, #31 in ypc, #30 in yards per game, and tied for #28 in TDs (ahead of only the Raiders). :X Now consider that the Chargers spent more of their cap on the RB position than all other NFL teams this season other than Minnesota and Philadelphia. :X :X

What happened? Woodhead, Mathews, and D. Brown all missed time with injuries, including significant time for Woodhead and Mathews. And the aforementioned injuries to the OL also hurt. Once again, the schedule didn't help, as the team played 10 games against teams in the top 14 in rushing yards allowed and 12 games against teams in the top 16 in ypc allowed.

The injuries and schedule are out of the team's control. However, I do fault the team for not doing a better job of building a better and deeper OL. It was known going into last offseason that the OL was a weakness, and they didn't do enough to address it. It looks even worse a year later.

I also think playcalling was a factor. IMO Reich should be on the hot seat, but I doubt that will be the case. It seems he is in sync with what McCoy wants, so the playcalling probably won't improve much as long as he is the head coach.

I think Rivers deserves a tremendous amount of credit for the team's offensive performance this season. Considering the awful running game, the awful OL, the injuries, and that he himself was playing through difficult injuries, he once again excelled. I have to laugh at Chargers fans who complain about him and want to move on to another QB.

On the surface, it appears that the defense fared better, despite dealing with significant injuries of its own. The team finished #9 in yards allowed and tied for #13 in points allowed. However, this is a bit misleading. The team played 8 games against teams in the bottom 9 in offensive yards, which seems to have padded that #9 ranking. This defense really was more of a middle of the pack performing defense at best.

The Chargers were #4 in passing yards allowed, but also faced the 4th fewest passing attempts. So, again, that ranking is misleading. They were #11 in YPA allowed, and tied for #12 in TDs allowed despite the low attempts. The biggest problem is that they finished with just 7 interceptions; only 3 teams had fewer. I'm sure this is related not only to the DBs and cover schemes but also to the lack of an effective pass rush. The Chargers had just 26 sacks; again, only 3 teams had fewer. PFF rated the Chargers pass rush at #25 and their pass coverage at #30. I am concerned that some of the numbers taken out of context will provide a false sense of comfort about the Chargers' improvement in this area.

The Chargers allowed the 7th most rushing yards and the 6th highest YPC. To some degree, this explains the low number of passing attempts faced by the defense; teams didn't have to pass as much to have success. PFF rated their rush defense at #28 in the NFL.

The Chargers defense forced 18 turnovers, which was #27 in the NFL. This goes mostly back to the lack of interceptions and effective pass rush.

I think the defensive personnel has improved a bit since Telesco arrived, but not enough. The Chargers are still below average in all three defensive units. As on offense, IMO some of this is bound to relate to coaching, not just personnel and execution. I think it's time for a new DC and/or some new defensive position coaches.

So all in all, it seems that the passing offense is still above average, and that will likely continue as long as Rivers is there. But the rushing offense and entire defense needs a lot of work.

 
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Okay, so how to prioritize needs?
First, let's look at the 2015 free agents by position:

RB - Mathews, R. Brown

WR - Royal, Ajirotutu

C - Hardwick (likely to retire), Legursky, Ohrnberger, Robinson (RFA)

G - Clary, Baca (ERFA)

LT - Dunlap, Smith

DE - Mathews

OLB - Freeney

ILB - Gachkar

CB - Flowers, Wright

S - Gilchrist

P - McBriar

And let's look ahead to 2016 free agents:

QB - Rivers, Clemens

FB - Johnson

WR - Floyd, Inman (ERFA)

TE - Gates, Green, Phillips

G - Rinehart, Troutman

LT - Wiggins (RFA)

DE - Liuget, Reyes, Square (RFA), Scafe (ERFA)

OLB - Ingram, Johnson, Law (ERFA)

ILB - Walker

S - Weddle, Addae (RFA)

First off, it seems likely that the team will want to keep Rivers and Weddle beyond next season, in which case they should sign them to extensions this offseason. Rivers' cap number in 2015 is scheduled to be $17.4M; Weddle's will be $10.1M. If they are extended, both of those numbers can probably be lowered. That, in turn, could help the Chargers to make a short term push while those two key players are still playing well. It will be much harder to win anything if they spend too much time rebuilding and those two can no longer effectively lead the offense and defense.
Next, there has been speculation about the team releasing Gates, whose 2015 cap number is $9.7M. I don't see that happening. Unless he wants to retire, I expect him back. Like Rivers and Weddle, he could potentially be extended/restructured. But he is already 34, so I'm not sure that makes sense, unless the extension is for years he and the team don't expect him to play out and they do it simply to lower his cap number in 2015.

Beyond those players, I don't see a need to worry about next year's free agents.

I agree with Gunz on the OL moves: resign Dunlap, move Fluker inside, move Watt back to G, use a 1st or 2nd rounder on C/RT and sign a free agent for the other. I actually wouldn't mind if they signed free agents for both positions, depending on who is available, leaving both the 1st and 2nd rounders to be applied on defense.

Beyond that, they should probably use the draft and/or free agency to acquire at least 1-2 more OL. Legursky and Ohrnberger are both UFAs, and both graded out terribly this season (per PFF). Robinson is a RFA but also graded out badly. The team should consider letting all of them walk, if they can improve the depth without them. And Clary has been awful for a long time. He should also be let go.

At RB, it's hard for me to see the team going into next season with just Oliver, Woodhead, and Donald Brown. Gunz suggested complementing them with a 4th/5th round pick, but I think it is pretty unlikely to get someone there that moves ahead of Oliver and Woodhead. I would prefer that the team sign an inexpensive veteran instead. That could be Mathews, depending on how the market values him, but I suspect the team will want to let him go and move in a different direction. This coaching staff never seemed to trust him even when he was healthy.

Oliver showed flashes, but enough to make him the lead back? I am skeptical. As I said at the time, Brown was a terrible signing; despite McCoy's praise of him, he graded out terribly this year. I'd prefer to see an upgrade on Mathews via free agency, making Oliver a change of pace and depth player behind the new RB and Woodhead. Unfortunately, they probably won't release D. Brown, since they would then eat $2M+ in dead money; I think they will release him after 2015 instead, when the dead money is half as much and he is scheduled to earn a $500K roster bonus. But I would like to think he won't play much, if at all, unless due to injuries.

At WR, the team needs another playmaker. IMO Allen would be better served as a 1a/1b possession WR complemented by a strong deep threat than as a clear #1. Floyd graded out well, but I think, similar to Allen, he would be better served to move down a spot on the depth chart and play as the #3 rather than the #2. Royal is solid but I think the needed upgrade pushes him out, because I doubt he will sign for good value as a #4 WR. Inman can then move into the #4 spot, which seems fine. Ajirotutu graded out badly on offense this year, but has been really good on special teams. Assuming he will be inexpensive, I'd like to see him resigned.

Moving to defense, PFF graded Mathews as the Chargers' top DL this season. They need to resign him.

Per PFF, Freeney easily graded out as the Chargers' top LB. He is 34, so it seems possible he could consider retiring or even signing with a stronger contender. I'd like to see him resigned to a reasonable contract, if possible.

Gunz recommended keeping Johnson. He played well enough to keep him, but he has a big cap number. $7.5M. Is he worth that? I am skeptical.

Per PFF, Gackhar graded out as the team's 2nd best ILB, not far behind Teo. I'd like to see them resign him if he will sign for reasonable terms. He should be starting over Butler from here on out, were it not for Butler's ridiculous contract.

Per PFF, Flowers graded out as the team's best CB, but Verrett was right behind him despite missing so much time. I think the team needs to resign Flowers and count on that pair as their starting corners for the next 5 years or so. Wright was easily the team's worst CB, and should be allowed to walk. Same with Gilchrist, who also graded out poorly. Addae should be moved into the starting lineup with Weddle. A starting defensive backfield of Flowers, Verrett, Weddle, and Addae will actually be one of the best in the league if they stay healthy.

Unfortunately, all of the defensive moves above amount to just resigning the solid performers and letting go of some lousy performers. Given that the defense wasn't very good this year, that's clearly not enough. I'd like to see the team draft 2 DL and 2 DBs to go along with 2 OL. I'd also like to see an impact DL or LB signed in free agency.

To summarize:

1. Extend Rivers and Weddle.
2. Upgrade RB Mathews via free agency. Let Ronnie Brown walk.
3. Upgrade WR via free agency. Let Royal walk. Keep Ajirotutu.
4. Resign Dunlap. Move Fluker to G. Move Watt back to G as other starter. Sign C and RT starters in free agency. Draft 2 OL.
5. Resign DE Mathews. Draft 1-2 DL, including at least one in first 2 rounds.
6. Resign OLB Freeney if reasonable.
7. Sign veteran starting caliber OLB in free agency. If Freeney doesn't resign, try to keep Johnson as other starter. If Freeney resigns, let Johnson go, unless he will reduce that cap number.
8. Resign Gachkar. Give him a lot of Butler's snaps.
9. Resign Flowers. Let Wright walk. Draft at least one CB.
10. Let Gilchrist walk. Draft a S.
11. Change both OC and DC and possibly some position coaches as well.

I don't expect all of this to happen. I think there is little chance of #11 happening. And I have said here to sign starters at C, RT, RB, WR, and OLB in free agency, in addition to resigning Dunlap, DE Mathews, Freeney, Gachkar, Flowers, and Ajirotutu. Not only does signing 5 starters in free agency not seem to be Telesco's style, it could be challenging to do smartly within cap constraints.

It's going to be tough to truly improve so many areas of deficiency.
 
I'm interested to hear some discussion this offseason about how people now feel about Telesco and McCoy.

As for Telesco, he drafted these guys:

2013:

1 11 SDG D.J. Fluker OL

2 38 SDG Manti Te'o LB

3 76 SDG Keenan Allen WR

5 145 SDG Steve Williams DB

6 179 SDG Tourek Williams DE

7 221 SDG Brad Sorensen QB

2014:

1 25 SDG Jason Verrett CB

2 50 SDG Jeremiah Attaochu LB

3 89 SDG Chris Watt OL

5 165 SDG Ryan Carrethers DT

6 201 SDG Marion Grice RB

7 240 SDG Tevin Reese

I'm still not sure about trading up for Teo, and a lot of these guys have missed a fair amount of games due to injuries. But this looks like a really good couple of drafts. So far, all 6 picks in the first 3 rounds are starters or look like they soon will be. And Williams, Williams, and Carrethers all were taken in the 5th round or later and look like they should be contributors. With the jury out on Sorensen, only Grice and Reese have been misses so far, and both were taken very late.

Free agency decisions haven't been as good:

- Last year, he gave Butler a monster contract, despite the fact that Butler played poorly in 2013. Butler followed that up by playing worse this season.

- The previous offseason, he gave Derek Cox a monster contract that was a disaster.

- He let Vasquez, the Chargers best OL, walk in the 2013 offseason, and he was 1st team All Pro in 2013. Meanwhile, the Chargers OL has been terrible.

- He resigned OL Ohrnberger and Rinehart, who were pretty bad this season and made no other significant OL moves outside of the draft.

- He signed Donald Brown to a 3 year contract, and Brown was awful this season. Unfortunately, this led to the Chargers spending more of their cap on the RB position than all other NFL teams other than Minnesota and Philadelphia, yet they had one of the worst running games in the league. :X

Positive moves:

- Signed and then extended Woodhead. The fact that he missed a season due to injury isn't Telesco's fault, and this still seems like a solid move. However, don't overrate it -- the fact that Woodhead can't play a feature back role and isn't good at pass protection played a part in the Brown signing.

- Traded a conditional 7th round pick for Lissemore.

- Signed Freeney, who has been good when healthy.

- Signed Dunlap, who is currently their best OL and plays the all important LT position.

- Signed Oliver and Addae as UDFAs.

I'm sure this is incomplete. I suspect he has done more positive things in free agency than I am remembering here, and I am just remembering the negatives more.

What am I missing?

 
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And how do you guys assess McCoy after two seasons?

He is certainly an improvement over Norv, but that is a low bar. In the past two seasons, the Chargers are 19-15. Breaking that down:

10-6 at home and 9-9 on the road

11-11 against teams that finished .500 or better and 8-4 vs. teams that finished below .500

13-13 against AFC teams

6-7 in the division, with one of those wins against KC reserves in the season finale last year

Not too bad, but not too good either.

This year, I was impressed with the wins over Seattle and at Buffalo, at Baltimore, and at San Francisco. But the loss at Arizona and particularly the home loss to KC turned out to be crushers. I would include the loss at Miami, but the Chargers haven't won there since 1982...

As I already posted, the defense is still a mess, and it's a bit difficult to really assess the offensive performance in his tenure due to injuries.

I think he has been too conservative at times, like on some of his punting and FG decisions.

Thoughts? How secure is he? If the Chargers miss the playoffs next season, is he gone or just on the hot seat entering 2016?

 
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I think you guys should just focus on the o line and the defense. As you guys stated above, there are a lot of deficiencies and everything can't be fixed at once. Gotta pick and choose. the offense crumbled as Rivers' back worsened. Get him behind a better line and he should lead a more than strong enough offense. Then worry about upgrading skill positions in 2016.

 
Well I'm crazy about pass rush and the Chargers do not have a dominant one, and we could upgrade at LB so, I'd go LB Vic Beasley in the first round. Rounds 2-4 would be some combo of OL, RB, and CB.

I'd love to draft Beasley and sign Jason Pierre-Paul in free agency (if he is not franchised). Sign a free agent WR.

 
I'm very impressed with Telesco and McCoy.

I don't feel competent to evaluate Reich.

I'm usually a fan of staying out of bidding wars in free agency and just building through the draft instead, but I think they need to sign several solid free agents on the offensive line this offseason. The Chargers need OL help right now, and rookies are unlikely to do the trick.

They need to draft a deep threat at WR.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
tommyGunZ said:
Just Win Baby said:
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Frank Reich rumored to be moving on to buffalo possibly
Good. :thumbup:
Really? Offense was pure fire until guys off the street were starting on the OL and our RB committee became two guys who weren't even on the roster the first couple weeks.Reich would be a big loss.
This article nicely describes some examples of why I am happy to see Reich go: Coaching: F
In retrospect, I'd like a do over on several plays from the KC game due to the poor results. But I don't have a problem with most of those calls in context. In one sentence the author is complaining about Reich not calling any runs when we had 1st and goal at the 3 and turned it over on downs in the 4th quarter. In the very next sentence, he complains about calling two runs behind our best road grader (Fluker) on 3rd and 4th and 1 on our final drive. Which is it? I don't have a problem with any of those play calls. I agree with the author regarding McCoy's decision to kick the 52 yard FG. I would have gone for it. I generally like McCoy, but I think he is far too conservative on 4th down and should go for it far more often. It's a mistake he's made quite a few times over the past two years and it's a valid criticism, IMO.

 
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I generally like McCoy, but I think he is far too conservative on 4th down and should go for it far more often. It's a mistake he's made quite a few times over the past two years and it's a valid criticism, IMO.
I agree completely with this.

I actually think that it's kind of stupid for any NFL team to leave those kinds of decisions in the coach's hands at the spur of the moment. There are dedicated guys on each team that decide when to go for a one- or two-point conversion in which situations after a touchdown, and I think the same should be true of deciding whether to punt or kick a field goal or go for it on fourth down. It should all be mapped out ahead of time by a specialist, not left to the coach's gut-based whim. I suspect that most head coaches have spent fewer than ten hours, lifetime, rigorously analyzing optimal fourth-down strategies. As a result, they're generally unqualified to make those decisions, and often do it poorly.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
And how do you guys assess McCoy after two seasons?

He is certainly an improvement over Norv, but that is a low bar. In the past two seasons, the Chargers are 19-15. Breaking that down:

10-6 at home and 9-9 on the road

11-11 against teams that finished .500 or better and 8-4 vs. teams that finished below .500

13-13 against AFC teams

6-7 in the division, with one of those wins against KC reserves in the season finale last year

Not too bad, but not too good either.

This year, I was impressed with the wins over Seattle and at Buffalo, at Baltimore, and at San Francisco. But the loss at Arizona and particularly the home loss to KC turned out to be crushers. I would include the loss at Miami, but the Chargers haven't won there since 1982...

As I already posted, the defense is still a mess, and it's a bit difficult to really assess the offensive performance in his tenure due to injuries.

I think he has been too conservative at times, like on some of his punting and FG decisions.

Thoughts? How secure is he? If the Chargers miss the playoffs next season, is he gone or just on the hot seat entering 2016?
I'd be surprised if he was on the hot seat next year. Unless they fall off the map and go like 4-12, I don't see it. As a Broncos fan, I think McCoy has done a good job so far, although I agree his play-calling is weird at times (Donald Brown up the middle on 4th down with your season on the line??), and as a Chargers fan, I'd be bothered by the time looking so flat in last week's game, considering they were in a win-and-you're-in situation, but overall I think he has the team headed in the right direction. I don't think they really had any losses this year, on the surface and not looking at game situations, where you'd say, "They definitely shouldn't have lost to that team." Every team they lost to won 8+ games.

 
From the most recent FBG email:

SD - TE Ladarius Green a work in progress

Source: ESPN.com - Eric D. Williams

San Diego Chargers TE Ladarius Green had just two more catches this year (19) than he did last year, but he also failed to find the end zone in 2014 after catching three touchdown passes in 2013. Green missed two games this year due to various ailments, which limited his role in the offense. He played in just 274 snaps (27% of the team's offensive snaps) this year compared to 350 offensive snaps last season. “I’ve got a lot to work on, from route-running, to blocking and catching -- everything,” Green said, when asked about his offseason plays. “It could have been a lot better. I was hurt. I’ve got to try and stay healthy. And I’ve got to try and do what I can for the team. I’ve still got a lot to improve on.'

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ FOOTBALLGUYS VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

Green's fantasy stock is low right now because he's been slow to develop. If you play in a deeper league, go ahead and toss out some buy low offers for the athletic tight end. Antonio Gates has one year left on his contract, but he carries a $9.7 million cap number in 2015.
This implies that Gates could be gone due to his cap number. I disagree, as I mentioned in a previous post. What does everyone else think?

 
Rumors that Fitzgerald wants out of AZ. Would be a great fit IMO if the Cards would take a mid round pick for him. Not sure we could afford his $ and paying Gates 10M as well though.

 
Rumors that Fitzgerald wants out of AZ. Would be a great fit IMO if the Cards would take a mid round pick for him. Not sure we could afford his $ and paying Gates 10M as well though.
I don't think he would be a great fit. His game is too similar to Allen's. And his salary is too high (independent of Gates). There are better choices.

 
BTW, if Beasley is not there when the Chargers pick, I'd go Benardrick McKinney.
If you watched the Ravens/Steelers game, that's what I'm looking for. We have Rivers, now pair him with a front 7 that gets lots of pressure on the other QB. We haven't done that for him, so the first rounder needs to be someone to upgrade the pass rush.

The OL, CB , and RB areas need help too but I'd do that in rounds 2-4. WR is further down the list, maybe round 5-6, free agent.

 
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Riversco said:
Riversco said:
BTW, if Beasley is not there when the Chargers pick, I'd go Benardrick McKinney.
If you watched the Ravens/Steelers game, that's what I'm looking for. We have Rivers, now pair him with a front 7 that gets lots of pressure on the other QB. We haven't done that for him, so the first rounder needs to be someone to upgrade the pass rush.

The OL, CB , and RB areas need help too but I'd do that in rounds 2-4. WR is further down the list, maybe round 5-6, free agent.
I'm hoping Andrus Peat is there in the 1st, but would be happy with McKinney.

Probably wishful thinking for CB Quinten Rollins in the 2nd.

 
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#1 OL(perpetually)

CURRENT STATE-

Where are my peeps that say you can't build an OL in one offseason, for the fifth or sixth year in a row? By my count the team has ONE starting OLman. I think the idea is great to move Fluker to OG from OT but the problem would be they would then need to acquire two starting OT's and a starting C. Shift Watts to the other OG? It would be nice but the fact he couldn't beat out Troutman for one starting OG spot last year makes it less than a certainty that he can beat out Rinehart. The group of G's(Fluker/Rinehart/Watt) may not be great but it would be nice to have the flexibility of Fluker to line up at T in case of injury and Watt having some experience at C as hopefully a third string option.

FA-

They HAVE TO bring in starters at C and LT and those are two spots that are rough for rookies. I would love to seem them make a push for Rodney Hudson. The Chiefs are in salary cap hell and may need to break the bank to keep Houston, a bigger priority. Hudson is just entering his prime and would be an upgrade from a healthy Hardwick who was being paid like an all-pro. If they could acquire two guys (Wisniewski/La Puenta/Montgomery) for a similar price as Hudson I would all be for that move as well. That way Watt would be be the third string C(which we all found out can certainly come into play) and La Puenta/Montgomery have played some OG to provide depth there if Fluker has to play some games at OT.

The options at OT are worse. If Roos knee is healthy I think he's a better player and may even be cheaper than Dunlap. In an ideal world they could sign Roos to play LT and Dunlap might give them a home team discount to play RT, but I afraid of giving Dunlap a Gaither type deal at the tip top of his market. If they could somehow sign both it would be great because they would have Roos/Dunlap at LT and Dunlap/Fluker at RT on the depth chart.

If they plan on moving Fluker to OG then they probably shouldn't spend any money at OG but the best OLman on the market is Iupati. He's still in his prime which means they could spread a big signing bonus over many years. It certainly would be a great for the running game and that is such a large part of what needs to change in 2015. Rivers has a league high 82% completion rate on play action passes but because the line is so bad his attempts at play action passes were near the very bottom of the league.

Lots of OL prospects in the draft to fix this but I think it's SUCH a mistake to enter the draft HAVING to draft a position instead of player. Is it a good idea starting a rookie at LT or C anyway??? There are options to fill these holes before the draft. Just as there were last year. Anyone else think Will Montgomery would have helped out last season? His salary was $1.9mil last season. WTF???

 
#2 DB

CURRENT STATE-

Weddle is the starter at S and Verrett will start at CB as long as his body holds up. After that there isn't much. I heard a ton of people say, "If Verrett were just a little taller he'd....". But the problem is I don't know how you fix that. He's a small guy and if you look around the league at the top CB's none of them are small guys. Will WR's get smaller over the course of Verrett's career? Will his body hold up to the NFL? He definitely has the talent to play in the NFL.

FA-

It would have been nice if they would have been able to bring in a big guy like Delvin Breaux as a compliment to Verrett. I would be very happy to see SD bring back Flowers but with all the help they need on the OL I'm not sure they can afford him. Guys like Kareem Jackson or Chris Culliver aren't exciting choices but might be solid at a cheap price until you can draft a good one to challenge for the spot across from Verrett. They also might luck into a cap casualty like Flowers was last season. Wright wants to come back and as long as he's viewed and payed as a guy fighting for a roster sport I wouldn't be against that for much needed depth. I'm not sure how much Dawan Landry has left in the tank but he's always been a steady and reliable player in the secondary. Hopefully you can bring in a rookie that would push him for a starting spot by the end of the first season.

They have plenty of needs at DB but I don't think they can afford much given the other glaring holes on the team. Discount CB's are tough to live with but at least they don't get your franchise QB killed. Definitely would like to see draft picks devoted to CB/SS.

 
#3 DL

CURRENT STATE-

Corey Liuget used to look like he might develop as a pass rusher but his sack totals continue to decline.At one time I thought he was an up and comer but he's looking more and more like just a solid guy in the league hovering between solid starter and a rotational guy. Improving against the run but I don't think he's been as strong against the pass as he was a couple of years ago. The 2012 version was much more compelling but he's only 24 so maybe he can recapture that form. At $7mil I can't imagine him earning his contract this year. I do appreciate the fact he suits up every week(even shortly after a concussion).

I like Sean Lissemore. He's a high effort guy that is flexible enough to play inside or out but he just isn't a starter. But he's also payed like a backup plan so I am willing to cut him a lot of slack. This is the biggest glaring hole on the DL, same as this time last year.

Kendall Reyes is another former first rounder that is still young, but was definitely disappointing last season. It's just so rare when he gets any pressure on the quarterback. He's cheap and young and if they could find a guy to push him for playing time he'd be another guy that was nice depth. Maybe a contract year will light a fire under him?

FA-

I wanted SD to chase Raji last year and after missing the season with a torn bicep he should be even cheaper this spring. I'm guessing his salary will be so low that he would be a cheap lottery ticket that could regain his old form on a dime. The Terrance Knighton/Dan Williams types will probably go for too much money since SD really needs to fill a ton of holes on the team before the season begins. Fairley is a much more expensive lottery ticket but he may not get as much money as some expect because of his failures to live up to expectations. A DL of Liuget/Raji/Fairley could have a very high ceiling, but also a very low floor.

 
I think the Mike Nolan hire for LB coach is great. He didn't have a lot to work with in ATL but he's an excellent coach imo. The LB's have been soooo disappointing. Ingram first rounder. Te'o second and fourth rounder. Attaochu second and fourth rounder. Butler is making $5mil+ this year. Either the talent is there and they haven't been able to get the best performance out of them or they can't evaluate talent. I have heard people talk about using resources on more LB's but these guys should be able to play.

The only coach I would have rather had was Wade Phillips. It's weird how the Kubiak/Phillips has kind of flown under the radar but those hires make den a more legitimate SB contender than all the FA player fuss the past couple years.

 
I have heard people talk about using resources on more LB's but these guys should be able to play.
The main reason for using resources on more LBs is that Freeney is a UFA, Johnson has a high cap number, and both could retire. They were the Chargers' two best LBs last season.

I agree that Nolan is a great hire.

 
I have heard people talk about using resources on more LB's but these guys should be able to play.
The main reason for using resources on more LBs is that Freeney is a UFA, Johnson has a high cap number, and both could retire. They were the Chargers' two best LBs last season.

I agree that Nolan is a great hire.
Yeah, but they need AT LEAST three OL, a CB, a NT, a SS. Imo they should probably add a RB and another CB. Those are the must have positions. In a league that leans more heavily on pass every season and the nickel defense is so important can you really afford depth at LB when the starters are so poor in some of those other positions?

I wouldn't be against adding a guy like Brandon Graham or Jabaal Sheard for depth at OLB, but I don't think they should spend starting $ or a high draft pick at LB.

Ideally, I'd like to spend more money on guys like...

Roos/Dunlap/Newton OT

Montgomery/DeLaPeunta/Shipley C

Jackson/Culliver/Cox CB

Raji NT

Searcy/Landry SS

Ridley/Gore/Moreno RB

... those are all guys that should start and probably wouldn't break the bank.

 
Upgrading the offensive line and NT are the top priorities. If they don't do that they're not going anywhere. Again. It's that simple. After that they need to find a way to generate a legitimate 4 man pass rush. Having a high quality NT would obviously help that, but the outside pass rush hasn't been there much for this team.

 
We're in general agreement. I agree that OL, DL, and CB are the highest priorities. I also think help is needed at RB, WR, LB, and SS, in no particular order.

I doubt they can all be filled.

 
SD is so desperate for OL depth at this point and I wouldn't mind them bring in the recently released Oher at T and/or Jonathan Cooper at G in ARZ who has been a huge disappointment so far. Both these guys needed fresh starts and would likely be very, very cheap.

 
We're in general agreement. I agree that OL, DL, and CB are the highest priorities. I also think help is needed at RB, WR, LB, and SS, in no particular order.

I doubt they can all be filled.
I'm not so sure.

According to this they are ~$25mil under the cap currently and could be as much as ~$40mil under the cap with 5 cuts....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2351830-5-cuts-that-could-create-cap-space-for-the-san-diego-chargers?search_query=Chargers

... the only one I wouldn't pull the trigger on is cutting Donald Brown to save ~$2mil because I think the blocking was just so terrible last season it's tough to make a fair judgement on his future with the team. Even with JUST $38mil I would think they should be able to enter the draft with a pretty short list of "needs" which means they have more flexibility in the draft.

 
According to this they are ~$25mil under the cap currently and could be as much as ~$40mil under the cap with 5 cuts....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2351830-5-cuts-that-could-create-cap-space-for-the-san-diego-chargers?search_query=Chargers
I disagree with the accounting in that piece. It says, for example, that cutting Nick Novak would save the team about $1 million in cap space next season. But if you cut Novak, you need to sign another kicker, and an average kicker is going to cost you around $1 million a year, so I'm not sure where the savings are supposed to come from. Same with all the other guys they mentioned.

I'm not saying that none of those guys should be cut; I'm just saying that the extra $15 million in cap space the team would get by cutting them is largely illusory.

 
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According to this they are ~$25mil under the cap currently and could be as much as ~$40mil under the cap with 5 cuts....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2351830-5-cuts-that-could-create-cap-space-for-the-san-diego-chargers?search_query=Chargers
I disagree with the accounting in that piece. It says, for example, that cutting Nick Novak would save the team about $1 million in cap space next season. But if you cut Novak, you need to sign another kicker, and an average kicker is going to cost you around $1 million a year, so I'm not sure where the savings are supposed to come from. Same with all the other guys they mentioned.

I'm not saying that none of those guys should be cut; I'm just saying that the extra $15 million in cap space the team would get by cutting them is largely illusory.
I think you make a great point, but I disagree that the point applies to the players mentioned in the article. The article doesn't go player by player for the full $15mil that could be saved, I admit.

If you go just by the players they discuss...

- Reggie Walker, backup ILB $1mil savings. They mention that because Walker missed time with injuries last year both Gachkar and Conner were pressed into more playing time and have "risen to the occasion". So they aren't saying SD should cut Walker and use $1mil to replace him. They are saying that SD is already four deep at ILB WITHOUT Walker on the roster. IMO the 3rd ILB isn't nearly as important as the 3rd CB on your roster for instance and I tend to agree with them that the ILB doesn't get diminished all that much without Walker.

- John Phillips, 3rd string TE $1.4mil savings. They would need a replacement for a 3rd string TE but I'm not completely convinced they couldn't find a replacement for under $1.4mil. I might argue a younger cheaper guy may have a higher ceiling. They wouldn't save the full $1.4 but they could probably save close to $1mil.... at the cost of losing a very limited third string TE.

- Nick Novak, K $1mil. I think there is a disconnect on the analysis they put forward. They were actually giving him the benefit of the doubt on his kicking and describing him as an accurate kicker that has a major weakness on kickoffs. They point to 10 touchbacks vs 67 returns which led to SD giving up a league leading 1,488 yards returned. That's a pretty shocking statistic. Last year Novak was the 18th ranked kicker in terms of %. So imo he was a below average kicker overall and from the list you supplied there are at least half a dozen guys that make less than 600k and are about the same. I will admit I don't understand the economics of kickers in the NFL at all. Seems to me over the past decade there are probably over 1,000 quality kickers that have graduated from the NCAA and there are only 32 nfl jobs. Heck, Novack himself was just a guy off the street that only is a Charger because of an injury. You're only talking about a savings of ~400k but once you are outside of the top few kickers in the NFL I have no idea why they are payed so much above the minimum.

- Jarret Johnson, OLB $5mil. This is the biggest one by far. I actually disagree with bleacherreport because they say Attaochu is not "ready for a starting role". While I was 100% against the Attaochu trade at the time, now that you were convinced he was worth a 2nd and 4th round draft pick you have to at least get him on the field and see if he is as good as you thought he was. I was assured almost one year ago that he is a starter. Ingram, Attoachu, and Williams are a pretty good core at this point and imo it's completely false to say you would need to spend $5mil to find a 34yo LB to replace him. This is a fairly interesting class of FA's and I think they could sign TWO guys in their mid-twenties that are more likely to ascend than a guy in his mid-thirties.

- Donald Brown, RB $1.9mil. This is the one I disagree with, but I will say that the RB market both in FA and draft is so soft that it wouldn't be out of the question to find another RB or two that made Brown expendable. SD has the luxury of replacing Mathews one dimensional role in the offense so they may get guys fairly cheap. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they found a guy for closer to $1mil or a later round pick that would be even cheaper. With the way the offensive line is shaping up I wouldn't even mind signing Moreno for pass protection and short yardage and he's going to have to accept a contract close to the minimum.

Overall, these guys are slated to make over $10mil and I think you could come up with similar replacements for under $5mil.

 
What is so bad about 67 returns for 1488 yards? That is 22.2 yards per return. Given that some returns began in the end zone, that means the opposing team on average gained less than 2 yards more than they would have with a touchback. Big deal. That said, I don't disagree that they could likely find someone as good as Novak for less or someone better than Novak for similar money.

I agree Walker is expendable. Not only for the reasons given, but also because he just hasn't been good when on the field.

I agree Brown is expendable, especially since I argued against signing him in the first place. Unfortunately, if they cut him, they will have paid him $4M for the 2014 season and will still have $2M in dead cap money. But with Woodhead returning and Oliver's surprising rookie season, they could easily replace Mathews and Brown with a better RB for less money, keeping Woodhead in his 2013 role and Oliver for depth.

I like Johnson, but I think his salary is a luxury the team cannot afford. His cap hit in 2015 is set to be $7.5M! $2.5M of that is dead money but they could still save $5M. I posted previously that I'd like the team to keep him if possible, but I think they have too many holes to spend that much on him.

Not so sure on Phillips. They have to have a 3rd string TE who can play in case Gates falls off a cliff. Not sure there are a lot of savings to be had there.

The fundamental problem is that the Chargers have far too many players who are expendable... they can't get rid of everyone.

They also should extend Rivers and Weddle ASAP, which should free up more cap room.

 
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The fundamental problem is that the Chargers have far too many players who are expendable... they can't get rid of everyone.

They also should extend Rivers and Weddle ASAP, which should free up more cap room.
I'm not so sure about Rivers and Weddle being extended. Both may be past their peak and are earning their big salaries at the moment but I don't think there are many Rich Gannon Dummy deals anymore where the player actually believes he's going to be on the team to earn some balloon payment in their late 30's.

If they believe in Liuget that is a contract that should probably be extended to lower his cap #. The problem is they have too many expendable players true, but paying guys like Liuget/Johnson ~$7mil for being solid starters is also a huge problem. MT, Johnson SHOULD be a candidate to restructure but given his age and current contract situations I'm not so sure he would feel pressure to be all that flexible. According to OTC his $5million in 2015 is guaranteed, right?

 
What is so bad about 67 returns
I think it's like giving your opponent free chances for a big return. I think every NFL team would prefer to have the opponent take the ball at the 20 and a 0% chance at giving up a TD. Admittedly, it may just be a case of PTSD from that season when SD was knocked out of the playoffs by the fact they couldn't cover kicks. Returns on 67/77 kickoffs just seems crazy to me, even if you don't get bit.

 

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