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[Dynasty] 2013 QB Class (1 Viewer)

ShaHBucks

Footballguy
I don't like to evaluate skill position players until I see some combine numbers, it helps me weed out the real athletes. Aside from wonderlic scores I can get a idea of who a QB is as a passer as of now. I'm sure you know this is a weak QB class if you follow any trust worthy scouts. There's no slamdunks here, maybe we can find a diamond in the rough. I'll start with a few QB whom I've looked at the numbers, read scouting reports, and watch YouTube videos vs the tougher teams they played.

Ryan Nassib

This guy has one of the strongest arms I've seen in a while. He reminds me of Jay Cutler if he wasn't a turnover prone cry baby. His short-med range throws get from point A to B before you could blink. That's not always a good thing in college but it could be a huge asset with NFL quality WR's. If he ends up impressing scouts with his arm strength at the combine(ala Jamarcus Russel) I could see him going as high as #2 to Jacsonville, Oakland, and of course Buffalo. If that happends I'd be all over Shorts, Moore, or Donald Jones, because they are recievers that could take Nassib's 5-10 yard lasers to the house before the defense knows what happened. Kind of like what we seen with Garcon/RG3 this year. That's if he's pressed into action. If he get to sit behind a established aging QB like Ryan Mallet or Brock Oswiler then Nassib is probably the top stash in this QB class. His deepball looks like he trys to put too much touch on it. I wouldn't be as excited to own his jumpball WR as oppoed to his possesion WR.

His numbers are just ok, and he played well vs the better team on his schedule. Numbers guys will think he's meh, tape guys will end up all over him. I'm lukewarm on Nassib ever becoming a eliete fantasy QB, like Cutler, but I don't think there is a QB with a higher upside in this draft.

 
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Thanks for posting. I hadn't read up on this guy. I'm not as optimistic as you on him. His arm looks strong but I'm not seeing much touch.

 
I'm not too high on most of the Qb's. There's a lot of mediocre being shoved down our throats. Some of them are already fading like Matt Barkley

 
Nassib has lots of problems going down field, like everyone else in this draft he has flaws that need masked. I feel more comfortable trying to mask geno's flaws than Nassib. You must be a master at reads, deception, and accuracy to ball without a deep arm. Not a guy I would build around, later day two developmental guy.

 
Personally I compare him to Jake Locker. Nassib has a horrible deep ball. Very quick release, though. Fits a WCO team better.I don't think he has much upside. Tyler Bray probably gets that label.

 
Personally I compare him to Jake Locker. Nassib has a horrible deep ball. Very quick release, though. Fits a WCO team better.I don't think he has much upside. Tyler Bray probably gets that label.
locker has no accuracy, never did. Inside twenty yards Nassib does.
 
Personally I compare him to Jake Locker. Nassib has a horrible deep ball. Very quick release, though. Fits a WCO team better.I don't think he has much upside. Tyler Bray probably gets that label.
Lockers only good quality is the deep ball now. And bray will be the best quarterback from this class.
 
Personally I compare him to Jake Locker. Nassib has a horrible deep ball. Very quick release, though. Fits a WCO team better.I don't think he has much upside. Tyler Bray probably gets that label.
locker has no accuracy, never did. Inside twenty yards Nassib does.
Agreed. If Locker can sneak in the 1st I'm sure Nassib can
Locker is not a reason to justify Nassib in the 1st. He was an awful pick then, just because Nassib isn't quite as awful as Locker doesn't mean he should be justified in the same area of the draft.
 
I don't grade QB's until they are drafted. You go to a bad O and you'll probably suck no matter what. You go to a wco and you'll probably have success. It's really too hard to rate QB's unless they're Manning/Luck/Brees types.

 
Personally I compare him to Jake Locker. Nassib has a horrible deep ball. Very quick release, though. Fits a WCO team better.I don't think he has much upside. Tyler Bray probably gets that label.
Lockers only good quality is the deep ball now. And bray will be the best quarterback from this class.
Locker isn't accurate deep or short.
 
Any Cougar fans out there that can tell me more about Jeff Tuel? He looks to have some upside as a late round/ free agent developmental QB.

 
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Who is the running QB that was projected to go in the 3rd but will now slide into the late 1st because of RG3,Kap and Wilson?Im guessing my Jets will overpay to move their 2nd to NE for their late 1st and get this guy. Might as well start reading up on him.

 
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Who is the running QB that was projected to go in the 3rd but will now slide into the late 1st because of RG3,Kap and Wilson?Im guessing my Jets will overpay to move their 2nd to NE for their late 1st and get this guy. Might as well start reading up on him.
EJ Manuel?
 
Who is the running QB that was projected to go in the 3rd but will now slide into the late 1st because of RG3,Kap and Wilson?Im guessing my Jets will overpay to move their 2nd to NE for their late 1st and get this guy. Might as well start reading up on him.
EJ Manuel?
From what I can remember, Manuel isn't that mobile. More of a pocket guy that can evade a tackle or two and will run just enough to get a first down or gain positive yardage. He has had 100+ rushes the last couple of years but he only averages about 2 yards per. So I wouldn't consider him a running QB. Besides, I'm not sure he is NFL quality for a QB. He was a Mr. Football in Florida I believe (FSU likes to pick up those Mr. Football (athlete)types and try to make them QBs).And as to the original poster...do you really consider Cutler elite? He does have a strong arm, but I've never considered him elite.The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
 
The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
Technically he was only rated #1 only after he said he was returning to school. He was never ahead of Luck and RGIII clearly would have passed him. I don't believe the loss in confidence in Barkley has a lot to do with injury. It has more to do with his increase in turnovers from last season and team losses. IMO he is clearly behind Geno.
 
I don't think Manuel is all that mobile either, best example I can think of though. Still confused why tahj did not declare.

 
The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
Technically he was only rated #1 only after he said he was returning to school. He was never ahead of Luck and RGIII clearly would have passed him. I don't believe the loss in confidence in Barkley has a lot to do with injury. It has more to do with his increase in turnovers from last season and team losses. IMO he is clearly behind Geno.
So was it two years ago Barkley was the #1 rated QB? Had to have been I guess. Obviously Luck and RGIII blossomed. I see Geno had some crazy stats (ala RGIII) so what is the knock on him? Just because he fell apart in the last couple of games?
 
Who is the running QB that was projected to go in the 3rd but will now slide into the late 1st because of RG3,Kap and Wilson?Im guessing my Jets will overpay to move their 2nd to NE for their late 1st and get this guy. Might as well start reading up on him.
EJ Manuel?
From what I can remember, Manuel isn't that mobile. More of a pocket guy that can evade a tackle or two and will run just enough to get a first down or gain positive yardage. He has had 100+ rushes the last couple of years but he only averages about 2 yards per. So I wouldn't consider him a running QB. Besides, I'm not sure he is NFL quality for a QB. He was a Mr. Football in Florida I believe (FSU likes to pick up those Mr. Football (athlete)types and try to make them QBs).And as to the original poster...do you really consider Cutler elite? He does have a strong arm, but I've never considered him elite.The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
E.J. Manuel, Collin Klein, Matt Scott, Nick Florence are the top read option guys. Haven't looked into them yet. I was going to get into Mike Glennon soon. I don't think anyone in this class is a slamdunk like Luck/RG3. It's why you don't see the draftniks marrying any of them. I've seen prospect boards where theres no Qb's in the top 30 or so. But beggers can't be choosers and there are teams with real needs at QB. GM's/Coaches with jobs on the line will have to reach and hope he's just that, a better Cutler without the int's and questionable leadership. It's a pure gamble, he might end up being just ok and no better than Cutler. Like I said before if he slips and ends up being a developmental project for a team with a starter like the Saints or Cowboys than he could be a good investment.
 
The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
Technically he was only rated #1 only after he said he was returning to school. He was never ahead of Luck and RGIII clearly would have passed him. I don't believe the loss in confidence in Barkley has a lot to do with injury. It has more to do with his increase in turnovers from last season and team losses. IMO he is clearly behind Geno.
So was it two years ago Barkley was the #1 rated QB? Had to have been I guess. Obviously Luck and RGIII blossomed. I see Geno had some crazy stats (ala RGIII) so what is the knock on him? Just because he fell apart in the last couple of games?
People figured out Barkley has a noddle arm for nfl standards
 
More than just that, didn't have the pass pro he has before and showed he has problems under duress too.

 
The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
Technically he was only rated #1 only after he said he was returning to school. He was never ahead of Luck and RGIII clearly would have passed him. I don't believe the loss in confidence in Barkley has a lot to do with injury. It has more to do with his increase in turnovers from last season and team losses. IMO he is clearly behind Geno.
So was it two years ago Barkley was the #1 rated QB? Had to have been I guess. Obviously Luck and RGIII blossomed. I see Geno had some crazy stats (ala RGIII) so what is the knock on him? Just because he fell apart in the last couple of games?
People figured out Barkley has a noddle arm for nfl standards
His arm is 'good enough', what disappointed people was the lack of accuracy and poor decision making. In the right system, like the Patriots, he could be very successful.
 
'cstu said:
The guy I'm gonna continue to eyeball is Barkley. How do you go from being the #1 rated QB 1 year ago to falling completely out of favor with the pundits? He played in an NFL style offense and put up quality numbers in a tough conference. I think his injuries played a bigger role than we suspect. To me, he is the #1 QB in this class. I don't trust guys that burst on to the scene for 1 year like some of these other guys have done.
Technically he was only rated #1 only after he said he was returning to school. He was never ahead of Luck and RGIII clearly would have passed him. I don't believe the loss in confidence in Barkley has a lot to do with injury. It has more to do with his increase in turnovers from last season and team losses. IMO he is clearly behind Geno.
So was it two years ago Barkley was the #1 rated QB? Had to have been I guess. Obviously Luck and RGIII blossomed. I see Geno had some crazy stats (ala RGIII) so what is the knock on him? Just because he fell apart in the last couple of games?
People figured out Barkley has a noddle arm for nfl standards
His arm is 'good enough', what disappointed people was the lack of accuracy and poor decision making. In the right system, like the Patriots, he could be very successful.
So could Matt Cassel.
 
Mike Glennon 66, 232 NC St.

The Numbers: Glennon has back-to-back season with 30+ TDs to his credit. Throwing away some of the cake games over the past two seasons Glennon shows a bit of a turnover problem, yet he still throws for a ton of TDs. He also has accuracy issues, completing only 58% of his passes as a SR. That is a huge flaw, great college QBs today reach comp% close to 70. He threw for 2TD/1INT vs SEC competition which is horrible. Vs the better ACC teams he threw 24TD/10INT which is great. For every yin there is a yang with Glennon and it shows on film.

The Tape:

vs Miami

vs FSU

vs UNC

Glennon is a smart QB with a decent arm. He has a nice delivery, good arm strength and touch. He consistently drives the ball downfield and put pressure on the defense. His accuracy issues occur when he is late with his throws and tries to force the ball into tighter windows. Those throws are a real head scratcher. It is understandable why he is compared to a lesser version of Eli Manning or Mat Ryan; there are times Glennon is cerebral, other times he looks like he taking a midterm that he didnt study for.

My Thoughts: You will hear 1000x's that he can make "all the throws."Throwing at the combine will only drive his stock higher. Glennon is a top 5 QB in this class. Gun to my head I would be pick between him and Nassib as of now with hopes that they could reach a higher level. The real debate I struggled with is what do I think of Ryan/Eli? If you think those guys are elite then Glennon is the top QB in the draft. Ryan and Eli have a top of weapons on offence that drive their production. Id be interested in Glennon if he lands on a team with great weapons but I wouldnt overpay. He will be ok but Id bet against him being elite. I usually take a stand but I have one foot in and one foot out with Glennon.

 
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I wanted to do more thorough reports like before but I don't have the time. This wasn't a easy class to evaluate. As great as the 2012 class was, 2013 has a shot at being the exact opposite. Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder, and a lot will depend on where these guys get drafted and schedules. I'll definitely check in for debates!Top 5(no order):Nassib (Laser arm, questionable everything else)Glennon (great size and skill but too erratic)Smith ( System qb? Most polished)Jones (Pure value pick. Also polished with upside)Manuel (Top read option qb. Needs a good 40 time)Read Option:(in order)ManuelScott(strong arm)Klein (better deep ball passer than Tebow. )Bust: Tyler WilsonTyler BrayZac DysertSleeper:Tino Sunseri (he can be a game manager, worth seeing if he has upside. 4 head coaches in 3 years didn't help him any)

 
I wanted to do more thorough reports like before but I don't have the time. This wasn't a easy class to evaluate. As great as the 2012 class was, 2013 has a shot at being the exact opposite. Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder, and a lot will depend on where these guys get drafted and schedules. I'll definitely check in for debates!Top 5(no order):Nassib (Laser arm, questionable everything else)Glennon (great size and skill but too erratic)Smith ( System qb? Most polished)Jones (Pure value pick. Also polished with upside)Manuel (Top read option qb. Needs a good 40 time)Read Option:(in order)ManuelScott(strong arm)Klein (better deep ball passer than Tebow. )Bust: Tyler WilsonTyler BrayZac DysertSleeper:Tino Sunseri (he can be a game manager, worth seeing if he has upside. 4 head coaches in 3 years didn't help him any)
No Matt Barkley?
 
I wanted to do more thorough reports like before but I don't have the time. This wasn't a easy class to evaluate. As great as the 2012 class was, 2013 has a shot at being the exact opposite. Beauty is definitely in the eye of the beholder, and a lot will depend on where these guys get drafted and schedules. I'll definitely check in for debates!Top 5(no order):Nassib (Laser arm, questionable everything else)Glennon (great size and skill but too erratic)Smith ( System qb? Most polished)Jones (Pure value pick. Also polished with upside)Manuel (Top read option qb. Needs a good 40 time)Read Option:(in order)ManuelScott(strong arm)Klein (better deep ball passer than Tebow. )Bust: Tyler WilsonTyler BrayZac DysertSleeper:Tino Sunseri (he can be a game manager, worth seeing if he has upside. 4 head coaches in 3 years didn't help him any)
No Matt Barkley?
No, I think he's just a capable QB who's production was drivin by superstar WR's.
 
I stumbled across this: EJ Manuel - 2013 Skills Challenge At this point, I am wondering why Manuel isn't getting more love from Mayock, Kiper etc. Are they overlooking the obvious or am I missing something?
I want to like Manuel more than I do, but he does not seem to have the "it" factor of Luck, RG3 and wilson. In fact, he has a lot the same all-around qualities as those guys, but just comes off as the clear level below. I understand that is not tangible. that said, I think when it is all said and done Manuel will be a first round pick and maybe even late enough that a team that will be willing to a take year or two to develop him.
 
I've spend some time trying to piece together what I think about Manuel from possible comps. But there really aren't many. He's definitely not in the same league as Kaepernick or Culpepper -- he doesn't have that kind of pure foot speed. But he could be a 'lite' version of those guys.Alternately, a bigger, faster, better passing Jason Campbell is in the ballpark. He's a little loose with the ball like Campbell, too.Both of those possibilities would be pretty decent and in the right system I think he could be fantasy relevant since he'll probably be a better FF QB than an NFL QB.

 
A couple thing that impress me about EJ Manuel is his pocket awareness and his escapability under duress. Landry Jones is the polar opposite and yet Mayock has Jones ranked higher. It is like ranking Gabbert ahead of Cam Newton. It makes no sense. EJ Manuel has also impressed me with his maturity and confidence he has displayed in the post season. He is convinced that he is the best QB in this class. I am not so sure he is wrong.

 
EJ Manuel has also impressed me with his maturity and confidence he has displayed in the post season. He is convinced that he is the best QB in this class.
I think most draftable QBs probably think this, especially in a draft that lacks a clear top pick like Luck or RG3. I would be surprised if any of them didn't think they were the best in this draft class.
 
Football Outsiders put out their Lewin Career Forcast for 2013Link

Lewin Career Forecast 2013by Aaron SchatzEven before they ever took the field, most NFL observers knew the quarterback class of 2012 was going to be one of the better ones in recent years. Scouts generally listed Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III as the two best quarterback prospects since at least 2004, and maybe even since Peyton Manning back in 1998. And when Football Outsiders applied our statistical formula, the Lewin Career Forecast, it came out in total agreement with the scouts. Luck came out as one of the top ten quarterback prospects since 1998, and Griffin topped Philip Rivers to set a new record for the best-ever projection using the LCF system.Or at least, he would have, except that there was one other player who had an even higher projection than Griffin: Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson. The idea of Wilson as one of the strongest prospects ever seemed ridiculous at the time. We dubbed Wilson "The Asterisk" and tried to explain why his projection might be incorrect. The system is only meant to be used on players chosen in the first two days of the draft, and most people didn't think Wilson was going until the third day. We thought the system overrated his senior improvement because he had transferred from North Carolina State to Wisconsin. And LCF couldn't account for his height because no quarterback under six feet had ever been drafted in the first three rounds.Seattle then drafted "The Asterisk" in the third round, and he led them to the playoffs with the highest DVOA rating of any of the rookie quarterbacks. The moral of the story: You always need to use common sense when analyzing a statistical projection system that doesn't incorporate everything that scouts can learn from watching film. But unexpected numbers may be telling you something.That's an important lesson when looking at the 2013 draft class, because the LCF likes this class a lot more than the scouts. This year's top prospects rank among the highest we've ever tracked, even though none are seen right now as first-round talents. Will players like Geno Smith and Matt Barkley rank with Colt McCoy and Brady Quinn as the LCF's biggest failures? Or will one of these players surprise like Russell Wilson?There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:-Career college games started-Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.-Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."-For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)-A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.-Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.-Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season.These last two variables work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks (since sacks are counted as negative runs in college), while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run (Andrew Luck, for example) get a bonus.The projection number represents an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player's career. (DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is explained here.) The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and you should avoid quarterbacks below zero.Geno Smith, West Virginia: 2,064 DYARSmith is the kind of prospect that the LCF loves: He's a three-year starter with a high (67.4 percent) completion rate, and he's mobile but a passer first. The LCF also likes that his stats improved in his senior year, which suggests he's still learning and growing in the position. Unfortunately, the LCF isn't looking at Smith's game-by-game record in 2012, which was astoundingly inconsistent. West Virginia ranked 122nd out of 124 teams when it came to variance in Football Outsiders' Offensive FEI metric. He struggled against teams with strong pass defenses, like Kansas State and TCU, and those are the games teams need to look at before they decide if Geno Smith is worth a first-round pick.Matt Barkley, USC: 1,812 DYARBarkley is a four-year starter, and despite the success of players like Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, games started in college still correlates with NFL success more than any other factor. However, Barkley did decline slightly as a senior. What about the "USC curse?" Well, Matt Leinart fell far short of his LCF projection, but Mark Sanchez has only fallen slightly short of his because LCF didn't rate him highly to begin with. And while Carson Palmer may no longer be an above-average NFL starter, he far surpassed his projection. (People tend to forget how good Palmer was in his first few seasons.)Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Matt Barkley here.Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: 1,506 DYARNassib is a three-year starter who improved significantly in his final season, although his career completion rate isn't as high as you would like (only 60.4 percent). He seems to be climbing up the draft boards of the various draft experts across the Web, although that doesn't tell us what teams think about him. After the Bills hired his college coach Doug Marrone, Nassib to the Bills in the second round is too obvious not to happen.E.J. Manuel, Florida State: 1,270 DYARThe MVP of the Senior Bowl was a better college quarterback than you might realize, with a 66.9 percent completion rate and three years of starting experience. I've seen articles comparing him to Blaine Gabbert, and other articles comparing him to Terrelle Pryor, which is somewhat like saying that something tastes like both steak and jelly beans.Check out Matt Waldman's thoughts on E.J. Manuel here.Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 425 DYARWilson doesn't come out well because he has only been a starter for two seasons, and he declined a little in his senior year. There may be extenuating circumstances: according to FO college analyst Brian Fremeau, Arkansas played the sixth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the country last year. Scouts like Wilson's feel in the pocket, but he takes more sacks than you might expect. Remember, sacks count as runs in college football, and for his career Wilson had 110 runs for -44 yards.Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Wilson here.Tyler Bray, Tennessee: -201 DYARPhrases you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: immature, inconsistent, "lack of decision-making ability." Completion rate you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: 58.6 percent.Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Bray here.Mike Glennon, North Carolina State: -379 DYARGlennon has only two seasons as a starter, because he was sitting behind Russell Wilson. Glennon's stats as a junior (62.5 percent comp. rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, 136.4 passer rating) are actually better than Wilson's stats the year before as a redshirt junior with the same program (58.4 percent, 6.8, and 127.5). But this is where we see the importance of steady improvement. Wilson's performance blossomed in his senior season, when he transferred to Wisconsin, while Glennon's performance as a senior declined. (He led the nation with 17 interceptions.) The other problem with Glennon may be his body type, because he's extremely skinny. We'll have to see how he comes out at the combine, but last year he was listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, a 24.8 BMI. No quarterback since 1998 has been drafted in the first three rounds with a BMI below 26.The Asterisk Part IILandry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYARThe LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.So here's Landry Jones, who will rank with the fourth-highest projection ever -- unless he doesn't get taken in the first three rounds. This time, we can't use excuses like we did with Russell Wilson. Jones has been starting at Oklahoma for four years and has prototype quarterback size. But scouts have pinned a number of red flags on him. He seems like the Colt McCoy of this year's class, although his issue isn't arm strength like McCoy's was. Jones has fine arm strength, but he's immobile and many scouts believe he wilts under pressure. Issues with mechanics and footwork were often hidden by an Oklahoma spread offense that involved lots of quick-developing screen passes.Perhaps some team will figure out a way to solve Jones' problems, grab him in the third round, and turn him into a quality NFL starter. Or he may drop to the fifth and be forgotten as just another college system quarterback-turned-NFL flop. It's just another example how, when it comes to picking future talent, even the most stat-oriented of us know that numbers complement scouting. They don't replace scouting.(This article originally appeared at ESPN Insider. There was one quarterback we left out of the ESPN article, because he probably won't go in the top three rounds. If he does, Zac Dysert of Miami of Ohio has a projection of 1,131 DYAR, including the penalty for non-BCS conferences.)Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 28 Feb 2013
 
Football Outsiders put out their Lewin Career Forcast for 2013Link

Lewin Career Forecast 2013by Aaron SchatzEven before they ever took the field, most NFL observers knew the quarterback class of 2012 was going to be one of the better ones in recent years. Scouts generally listed Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III as the two best quarterback prospects since at least 2004, and maybe even since Peyton Manning back in 1998. And when Football Outsiders applied our statistical formula, the Lewin Career Forecast, it came out in total agreement with the scouts. Luck came out as one of the top ten quarterback prospects since 1998, and Griffin topped Philip Rivers to set a new record for the best-ever projection using the LCF system.Or at least, he would have, except that there was one other player who had an even higher projection than Griffin: Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson. The idea of Wilson as one of the strongest prospects ever seemed ridiculous at the time. We dubbed Wilson "The Asterisk" and tried to explain why his projection might be incorrect. The system is only meant to be used on players chosen in the first two days of the draft, and most people didn't think Wilson was going until the third day. We thought the system overrated his senior improvement because he had transferred from North Carolina State to Wisconsin. And LCF couldn't account for his height because no quarterback under six feet had ever been drafted in the first three rounds.Seattle then drafted "The Asterisk" in the third round, and he led them to the playoffs with the highest DVOA rating of any of the rookie quarterbacks. The moral of the story: You always need to use common sense when analyzing a statistical projection system that doesn't incorporate everything that scouts can learn from watching film. But unexpected numbers may be telling you something.That's an important lesson when looking at the 2013 draft class, because the LCF likes this class a lot more than the scouts. This year's top prospects rank among the highest we've ever tracked, even though none are seen right now as first-round talents. Will players like Geno Smith and Matt Barkley rank with Colt McCoy and Brady Quinn as the LCF's biggest failures? Or will one of these players surprise like Russell Wilson?There are seven variables involved in the Lewin Career Forecast:-Career college games started-Career completion rate. Because of recent rises in completion rate across college football, this is a logarithmic variable, so that as a quarterback's completion percentage goes down, the penalty for low completion percentage gets gradually larger.-Difference between the quarterback's BMI and 28.0. This creates a small penalty for quarterbacks who don't exactly conform to the "ideal quarterback size."-For quarterbacks who come out as seniors, the difference in NCAA passer rating between their junior and senior seasons. (For quarterbacks who come out as juniors or redshirt sophomores, this variable is always 5.0, which is the average increase for the seniors in our data set.)-A binary variable that penalizes quarterbacks who don't play for a team in a BCS-qualifying conference.-Run-pass ratio in the quarterback's final college season.-Total rushing yards in the quarterback's final college season.These last two variables work together to penalize both quarterbacks who scramble too often and quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks (since sacks are counted as negative runs in college), while pocket quarterbacks who are successful when they do run (Andrew Luck, for example) get a bonus.The projection number represents an estimate for passing DYAR in years 3-5 of a player's career. (DYAR, or Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, is explained here.) The top prospects will be above 1,200 DYAR, and you should avoid quarterbacks below zero.Geno Smith, West Virginia: 2,064 DYARSmith is the kind of prospect that the LCF loves: He's a three-year starter with a high (67.4 percent) completion rate, and he's mobile but a passer first. The LCF also likes that his stats improved in his senior year, which suggests he's still learning and growing in the position. Unfortunately, the LCF isn't looking at Smith's game-by-game record in 2012, which was astoundingly inconsistent. West Virginia ranked 122nd out of 124 teams when it came to variance in Football Outsiders' Offensive FEI metric. He struggled against teams with strong pass defenses, like Kansas State and TCU, and those are the games teams need to look at before they decide if Geno Smith is worth a first-round pick.Matt Barkley, USC: 1,812 DYARBarkley is a four-year starter, and despite the success of players like Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, games started in college still correlates with NFL success more than any other factor. However, Barkley did decline slightly as a senior. What about the "USC curse?" Well, Matt Leinart fell far short of his LCF projection, but Mark Sanchez has only fallen slightly short of his because LCF didn't rate him highly to begin with. And while Carson Palmer may no longer be an above-average NFL starter, he far surpassed his projection. (People tend to forget how good Palmer was in his first few seasons.)Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Matt Barkley here.Ryan Nassib, Syracuse: 1,506 DYARNassib is a three-year starter who improved significantly in his final season, although his career completion rate isn't as high as you would like (only 60.4 percent). He seems to be climbing up the draft boards of the various draft experts across the Web, although that doesn't tell us what teams think about him. After the Bills hired his college coach Doug Marrone, Nassib to the Bills in the second round is too obvious not to happen.E.J. Manuel, Florida State: 1,270 DYARThe MVP of the Senior Bowl was a better college quarterback than you might realize, with a 66.9 percent completion rate and three years of starting experience. I've seen articles comparing him to Blaine Gabbert, and other articles comparing him to Terrelle Pryor, which is somewhat like saying that something tastes like both steak and jelly beans.Check out Matt Waldman's thoughts on E.J. Manuel here.Tyler Wilson, Arkansas: 425 DYARWilson doesn't come out well because he has only been a starter for two seasons, and he declined a little in his senior year. There may be extenuating circumstances: according to FO college analyst Brian Fremeau, Arkansas played the sixth-hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the country last year. Scouts like Wilson's feel in the pocket, but he takes more sacks than you might expect. Remember, sacks count as runs in college football, and for his career Wilson had 110 runs for -44 yards.Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Wilson here.Tyler Bray, Tennessee: -201 DYARPhrases you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: immature, inconsistent, "lack of decision-making ability." Completion rate you don't want to be associated with when you come out with a year of eligibility remaining: 58.6 percent.Check out Matt Waldman's Futures piece on Tyler Bray here.Mike Glennon, North Carolina State: -379 DYARGlennon has only two seasons as a starter, because he was sitting behind Russell Wilson. Glennon's stats as a junior (62.5 percent comp. rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, 136.4 passer rating) are actually better than Wilson's stats the year before as a redshirt junior with the same program (58.4 percent, 6.8, and 127.5). But this is where we see the importance of steady improvement. Wilson's performance blossomed in his senior season, when he transferred to Wisconsin, while Glennon's performance as a senior declined. (He led the nation with 17 interceptions.) The other problem with Glennon may be his body type, because he's extremely skinny. We'll have to see how he comes out at the combine, but last year he was listed at 6-foot-7 and 220 pounds, a 24.8 BMI. No quarterback since 1998 has been drafted in the first three rounds with a BMI below 26.The Asterisk Part IILandry Jones, Oklahoma: 2,276 DYARThe LCF is built to apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. After that, quarterback success and failure becomes too difficult to predict. Part of the concept of the system is that scouts will do a good enough job identifying "system quarterbacks" so that those quarterbacks whose college stats are much better than their pro potential will naturally fall to the third day of the draft.So here's Landry Jones, who will rank with the fourth-highest projection ever -- unless he doesn't get taken in the first three rounds. This time, we can't use excuses like we did with Russell Wilson. Jones has been starting at Oklahoma for four years and has prototype quarterback size. But scouts have pinned a number of red flags on him. He seems like the Colt McCoy of this year's class, although his issue isn't arm strength like McCoy's was. Jones has fine arm strength, but he's immobile and many scouts believe he wilts under pressure. Issues with mechanics and footwork were often hidden by an Oklahoma spread offense that involved lots of quick-developing screen passes.Perhaps some team will figure out a way to solve Jones' problems, grab him in the third round, and turn him into a quality NFL starter. Or he may drop to the fifth and be forgotten as just another college system quarterback-turned-NFL flop. It's just another example how, when it comes to picking future talent, even the most stat-oriented of us know that numbers complement scouting. They don't replace scouting.(This article originally appeared at ESPN Insider. There was one quarterback we left out of the ESPN article, because he probably won't go in the top three rounds. If he does, Zac Dysert of Miami of Ohio has a projection of 1,131 DYAR, including the penalty for non-BCS conferences.)Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 28 Feb 2013
Nice read. But I'm not sure anyone's claim to fame can be from projecting Russel Wilson as a good QB.
 
After watching over 250 of his college throws, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell believes USC QB Matt Barkley is a "fourth-round talent" on tape.Cosell is perhaps the most respected tape watcher in football circles. "Number one, he has average arm strength by NFL standards," Cosell said. "Number two, his feet are not particularly quick, he has slower feet. And three, he's a little shorter." Elaborating on Twitter, Cosell said he believes Barkley could be an NFL starter, but would require an elite supporting cast. His biggest reservations are Barkley's arm strength and athleticism, as Cosell stated Mark Sanchez had a "stronger arm" with "much better movement" in the pocket coming out of USC. With opinions all over the map, it's hard to forecast where Barkley will be drafted. Clearly, though, he'd be a severe reach in the top ten.
I know personally I liked Sanchez much more than Barkley coming out. I'd take my chances on Sanchez bouncing back (with a supporting cast) than Barkley amounting to anything.When I see Barkley, I see Jimmy Clausen. Physically limited guys with backup QB upside.
 
Matt Scott is getting more intriguing. Just like Nassib, his arm might make him a better pro than college qb. Im seeing alot of drops from WR's watching him.

 
Matt Scott is getting more intriguing. Just like Nassib, his arm might make him a better pro than college qb. Im seeing alot of drops from WR's watching him.
Artificial inflation due to lack of mobile QB's being available and the league's newfound desire for mobile QB's. Demand > Supply.
 
Any Cougar fans out there that can tell me more about Jeff Tuel? He looks to have some upside as a late round/ free agent developmental QB.
Every year i adopted a sleeper QB that has a snowball chance in hell of getting to play in the NFL. This year is no exception and this year it is Jeff Tuel. The kid has been snake bite by injuries almost his entire college career but I can't help but to root for the QBs who have to travel the longer road to the pros.
Jeff Tuel, QB (6-3, 218) — Tuel ran the 40 in 4.60 and 4.65 seconds. He had a 4.12-second short shuttle and a 6.90-second three-cone drill. He had a 32-inch vertical jump and a 9-foot-3 broad jump. Tuel had a great pro day, and I suspect that he will have a strong showing when he has a workout with the New England Patriots on March 22. Tuel will be joined by receiver Marquess Wilson -- who was at the combine — at that workout, which will be held at the University of Idaho. Tuel also has a two-day visit with the Buffalo Bills set up for April 8-9.
 
Any Cougar fans out there that can tell me more about Jeff Tuel? He looks to have some upside as a late round/ free agent developmental QB.
Every year i adopted a sleeper QB that has a snowball chance in hell of getting to play in the NFL. This year is no exception and this year it is Jeff Tuel. The kid has been snake bite by injuries almost his entire college career but I can't help but to root for the QBs who have to travel the longer road to the pros.
Jeff Tuel, QB (6-3, 218) — Tuel ran the 40 in 4.60 and 4.65 seconds. He had a 4.12-second short shuttle and a 6.90-second three-cone drill. He had a 32-inch vertical jump and a 9-foot-3 broad jump. Tuel had a great pro day, and I suspect that he will have a strong showing when he has a workout with the New England Patriots on March 22. Tuel will be joined by receiver Marquess Wilson -- who was at the combine — at that workout, which will be held at the University of Idaho. Tuel also has a two-day visit with the Buffalo Bills set up for April 8-9.
I can't say I've watched him play but he has one of the worse statistical profiles I've seen this year. Really bad ypa, td:int, ypg ect..
 
Greg Cosell says Smith, Manuel, Barkley and Nassib are going in the 1st round. He has Nassib rated the highest.

What I say to that is that someone will get a steal in Glennon. I'm hitching my wagon to him being the best QB in the class. He'll grow into his body with an NFL conditioning program, and he'll be coached up to avoid making some of the mistakes he made last season. His arm was never in question and he's a smart kid.

 

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