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2014 Anarchy League 2 Thread (1 Viewer)

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Welcome to the 2014 Anarchy League 2 THE LEAGUE OF CHAMPIONS thread.

League site

Draft is in progress. Let's have some entertaining commentary.

Edit: fixed link.

 
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Congratulations Norseman for landing the MVP ALL DAY ADRIAN PETERSON!!

I expect a monster season for Peterson in Norval Turners offense this season.

Duckboy OTC rzrback ITH

I suggest stud kicker theory FTW

Oh and I heard there is new wrinkle where you get double playoff points for players who are retired. So CalBear will likely be all over that.

 
Shh, I'm hoping Gonzo lasts to my second pick at 2.03.

Trying out the new mobile Dominator for this draft; it has less configurability (no way to hack TMQB for example) but it looks like the VBD calculations are pretty decent for the format.

Some nutty value so far. Graham at 1.03? Megatron at 1.08? If I were at 1.01 my choice would be between those two.

 
Some nutty value so far. Graham at 1.03? Megatron at 1.08? If I were at 1.01 my choice would be between those two.
Agree. It seems funny to comment on value in the first half of the first round, but I would have had Graham, Julius, Gronk, Calvin as the top 4 picks, in that order.

 
Some nutty value so far. Graham at 1.03? Megatron at 1.08? If I were at 1.01 my choice would be between those two.
Agree. It seems funny to comment on value in the first half of the first round, but I would have had Graham, Julius, Gronk, Calvin as the top 4 picks, in that order.
not being a survivor league, being based on total points through the SB, knowing you won't get a zero, what they did on defense and knowing they are a virtual lock to win the AFC west and advance into the post season....I have no problem with DEN TMQB being taken before or in the middle of any of those guys.....the fact that they play a tougher schedule and may not get a bye in the playoffs only adds to it.....

 
Some nutty value so far. Graham at 1.03? Megatron at 1.08? If I were at 1.01 my choice would be between those two.
Agree. It seems funny to comment on value in the first half of the first round, but I would have had Graham, Julius, Gronk, Calvin as the top 4 picks, in that order.
not being a survivor league, being based on total points through the SB, knowing you won't get a zero, what they did on defense and knowing they are a virtual lock to win the AFC west and advance into the post season....I have no problem with DEN TMQB being taken before or in the middle of any of those guys.....the fact that they play a tougher schedule and may not get a bye in the playoffs only adds to it.....
The person who takes the 32nd QB won't get a zero, either. A total points league makes "not getting a zero" a meaningless goal.

 
CalBear said:
Stinkin Ref said:
Just Win Baby said:
CalBear said:
Some nutty value so far. Graham at 1.03? Megatron at 1.08? If I were at 1.01 my choice would be between those two.
Agree. It seems funny to comment on value in the first half of the first round, but I would have had Graham, Julius, Gronk, Calvin as the top 4 picks, in that order.
not being a survivor league, being based on total points through the SB, knowing you won't get a zero, what they did on defense and knowing they are a virtual lock to win the AFC west and advance into the post season....I have no problem with DEN TMQB being taken before or in the middle of any of those guys.....the fact that they play a tougher schedule and may not get a bye in the playoffs only adds to it.....
The person who takes the 32nd QB won't get a zero, either. A total points league makes "not getting a zero" a meaningless goal.
but Graham, Julius, Gronk, and Calvin might.....

don't think it's meaningless especially with a first round pick...IMO it is a factor in trying to win these....just trying to say that if you get a season or say half a season of zeros from your 18th round pick, you may still be able to win.....from your 1st rounder, probably not gonna happen.....

then it comes down to VBD and is DEN TMQB worth it....?...the video game type numbers DEN put up indicate they probably are....as does their current ADP in these so far......

TMQB32 wont get you a zero......and everybody is guaranteed 2.....but the last few TMQB will also be taken in the last round.....zeros will have less of an impact as you move through the draft, but I think you need to hope to avoid them with your early picks as much as possible......taking TMQB32 in the last round guarantees yo points from that pick but then it comes down to a discussion that has been had many times...."the difference between TMQB1 in the first and TMQB2 in the last round.....is the point differential worth it".....

 
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I was certainly considering Gronk too but I hear what you are saying Stinkin Ref. It is a bit early to gamble.

Jason Witten is 32 years old so perhaps a player people are looking to avoid. I really like Scott Linehan being there however and the Cowboys are going to be throwing the ball even more than before. The biggest problem is when other teams sit on the egg as their defense is turrible!!

CalBear what are your thoughts on Jeff Tedford being the OC in Tampa Bay? What should we be expecting from that offense? That has been one of the biggest puzzles for me this year.

 
I was certainly considering Gronk too but I hear what you are saying Stinkin Ref. It is a bit early to gamble.

Jason Witten is 32 years old so perhaps a player people are looking to avoid. I really like Scott Linehan being there however and the Cowboys are going to be throwing the ball even more than before. The biggest problem is when other teams sit on the egg as their defense is turrible!!

CalBear what are your thoughts on Jeff Tedford being the OC in Tampa Bay? What should we be expecting from that offense? That has been one of the biggest puzzles for me this year.
The first play Tedford called when he came to Cal was a halfback option pass that went for a TD. He can be inventive and fun. Over his time at Cal, though, he became a bit dull, and didn't really manage to exploit the talent he had (in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones, for example). He's probably better suited to being an OC than a head coach right now; if he's put in a position to be creative, he can do it.

He has some of the worst situational decision-making of any coach I've seen at Cal, in terms of going for it on fourth down, deciding how to use timeouts and so on. The fact that an Econ professor at Cal proved that coaches should go for it more often on fourth down didn't affect him at all. He'd definitely kick the XP if he scored a TD down by 15.

 
Was a little surprised at the running back run early in the 2nd round. Gave me opportunity to grab one of my top wide receivers, came down to Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall.

Really like Julio Jones to come back strong and with Gonzalez gone, he has an opportunity to set career highs in targets, receptions, yardage, and particularly TDs as there should be plenty of red zone opportunities.

 
Anarchy OTC :coffee:

Norseman on deck JWB in the hole

Julio was a good pick, I would have been happy with him instead of Forte but there are many picks before going again and I think the gap is larger between Forte and the next group of running backs than the gap between Julio and some WR I can draft later.

It would have been a more difficult choice if I didn't autodraft. I somewhat expected Forte to be gone by the time i came back to me, so I guess I should be happy he was there.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Stephen Holloway said:
Our group has the best pace at the start. Keep it going!
Likely because we collectively have the worst social lives of all the leagues.
I resemble that remark ..... glad to add Mr. Brady leader of the playoff bound Patriots

 
I have two minor concerns for the Pats this year. One, that they run more and become more of a ball control team, especially if the defense is better. Two, that the Aaron Hernandez trial becomes a 3 ring circus when it starts in October and they drag the Pats organization into it. Just because they can, I can see the defense calling players as witnesses. I suspect it will be a media bonanza and they will swarm the locker room every day.

 
Unsuccessfully - did you send a smoke signal?

Maybe a little early on Brady, but I see his wide receivers much improved from last year and it is critical to have consistent ligh quarterback scoring in these leagues. I have tried the wait for bargains, it's a passing league, it's team quarterback and such ,,,,, but it helps you compete with consistent high scoring at QB. Hope I chose wisely as there were two others I really wanted.

It is good to have multiple positions covered early to help mine value as it comes.

Carry on friends of league two.

 
And ..... Outstanding value in my opinion on Foster at 3.4 by Anarchy99 and with Martin at 3.5 by Norseman.

 
No comments for more than two days... this is taking some of the fun out of this process.

I wanted to note that I will not be posting the DD's projections on the teams this year after the draft. I have switched to a Mac for personal use over the past year and the Mac version of DD is very limited ( :X ). I have a work laptop, but I can't load DD on it. So if someone else is tracking with a Windows version of DD, please consider picking up this service to the league.

 
I am not looking at DD this time around.

I think I have an alright start but I am not laying down any smack right now because I am laying low of all you snipers a bit. :ph34r:

 
So I did say I never learn and here I go taking Dwayne Allen and a rookie TE again. :doh:
My wife loves her slot machines. We went on a cruise and she frequented the casino. Every day she kept feeding the one arm bandits, probably a couple hundred bucks each time. Until finally one day she "hit it big" to the tune of $500. To hear her tell the story, she "won" $500 at the casino. That's all she talked about for months. Here's hoping one of Allen or Ebron is the magic coin.

 
I'm feeling bereft, seventh round and I still don't have any Bears. And Ryan Longwell's out of the game. Can we add a punter position so I can draft Bryan Anger?

 
Maybe anger will take over PK duties, permission granted.

On my Chris Johnson pick last round, I had two on my draft list, Johnson and Bowe. Was hoping last night for both so I really like that pick.

Don't mind settling for Jennings though.

 
In general I like drafting near the turn; it gives you some added tactical ability when you can analyze the needs of the teams between your two picks. When you're drafting near the middle of a 16-team draft, there's too much time between your picks to be able to do much other than pick off your board.

But then you have a long wait (particularly long this time, we're approaching Day 3) for your next one, so depending on where your two picks fall, you may not have a realistic shot at a player you want unless you really reach for him.

I could have taken Marshawn at 1.14, but it's hard to take a second-tier RB in this format, and I thought he might survive to my second pick. After that, I really couldn't justify Keenan Allen at 2.03 (although he's my #1 Bear-to-own-at-current-ADP). Then I thought about Desean at 4.03, but that's a bit of a reach and I'm not convinced he'll be immediately effective in Washington.

Then I could have tried Vereen at 6.03 instead of Reggie Bush, but, really? I mean, I like the guy but he may not even be the starter.

 
Interesting notes so far:

1. 25 TEs have been drafted and 2 teams have none (Sinrman and rzrback77). It will be interesting to see how that strategy works given the TE premium in this format.

2. Bia locked in his flex with a 3rd TE taken in the 6th round. And a rookie TE at that... bold move. Meanwhile, Bia is the only team with 0 WRs.

3. 27 RBs have been drafted and 2 teams have none (JWB and There It Is). 4 other teams have just 1 so far.

4. 3 teams have 3 RBs apiece and are almost done with the position (CalBear, rzrback77, and Fiddles). I'm surprised to see CalBear is one of them; I think this goes against his typical strategy in the past. In rzrback's case, 3 RBs and 0 TEs does not seem like an ideal strategy for this format...

5. 18 TMQBs have been drafted, and 6 teams have 2 and are done with the position. 4 teams have 0 so far and are playing TMQB chicken...

 
Interesting notes so far:

1. 25 TEs have been drafted and 2 teams have none (Sinrman and rzrback77). It will be interesting to see how that strategy works given the TE premium in this format.

2. Bia locked in his flex with a 3rd TE taken in the 6th round. And a rookie TE at that... bold move. Meanwhile, Bia is the only team with 0 WRs.

3. 27 RBs have been drafted and 2 teams have none (JWB and There It Is). 4 other teams have just 1 so far.

4. 3 teams have 3 RBs apiece and are almost done with the position (CalBear, rzrback77, and Fiddles). I'm surprised to see CalBear is one of them; I think this goes against his typical strategy in the past. In rzrback's case, 3 RBs and 0 TEs does not seem like an ideal strategy for this format...

5. 18 TMQBs have been drafted, and 6 teams have 2 and are done with the position. 4 teams have 0 so far and are playing TMQB chicken...
My strategy is always the same: choose value. In this format, RBs are often over-valued, because people are used to RBs being worth more than WRs. But the pros here in Anarchy 2 have done a good job of adjusting their drafting styles over the years, so the VBD for RBs has wound up being pretty solid.

At 2.03, we were near the end of a RB tier (Lacy/Forte), and had just finished a WR tier with my first-round selection of AJ Green. I could have gone with J.Jones or J.Nelson instead but I felt the RB value was strong enough.

At 4.03, same deal; A.Morris was the last RB in a tier, and in fact wound up being the last RB taken in the round. He was followed up by Gerhart (who I couldn't take anyway), Ellington, Stacy and Mathews, who all seem pretty significantly less attractive. The only plausible WRs were TY Hilton or Desean and I wasn't happy with either of those. I considered A.Gates, might have missed out on one there; the rest of the TEs I'm not going to go out of my way for.

Then at 6.03, Bush had been at the top of my VBD list for a while. I would have taken Colston but he went a couple picks ahead. My second TE at this point will be a bottom-feeder, but the difference between bottom-feeders and the kinds of guys going now isn't very big.

 
I should likely pay some more attention to ADP for redraft than I have been. That is what I have used the DD as a proxy of before. So I do feel a bit less prepared from that perspective. Mock drafting would help as well.

Against this group and for this format I am not sure how useful those things really are at the same time. They are no help to you against me as I am drafting almost entirely based on my projections.

What I do think is useful is consideration for potential extra games played. For the most part I have been beaten to the punch on players I expect to get a boost from post season stats that are of a similar tier otherwise.

I do think that would be an interesting conversation to have. How do you value the potential of the extra games?

I am looking at it similarly to if you are looking at a player who will miss games due to suspension. But a bit less than that because only a couple teams seem like locks for at least one playoff game.

I have not done this, but what one could do is look at the odds of a team making the post season, and give them a percentage of their PPG based on those odds.

JWB thanks for calling my draft bold.... I can think of a few other words some might use to describe it! :lol:

It is not my usual strategy to punt early WR value. At the same time the viable WR pool keeps growing.

Here are the scoring thresholds or baselines for RB and WR over the last 3 seasons:

3 year average RB 12 183.27 RB 24 137.7 (132.25 last 2 seasons) RB 48 RB60 53.6 74.8 RB72 37.7

3 year average WR12 253.9 WR24 197.93 WR36 164.66 WR48 145.13 WR60 119.2 WR72 98.3 WR90 72.8 (last season WR90 scored 85.5 points)

Everyone must roster 64 RB. So the worst starters will be zero, but some of the players who finish at the end of that range will be scoring around 54 points. So a RB1 has a 130 point advantage against the worst starter.

Everyone must roster 90 WR. So the worst starters will be zero, but some of the players who finish at the end of that range will be scoring around 73 points. So a WR1 has a 180 point advantage against the worst starter.

So from a VBD perspective a RB1 is worth 45 points compared to a RB24 the difference between a WR1 and WR24 is 55 points. And the WR1 is worth 50 more points than the worst starter. So the WR1 is worth more than the RB1.

Why I value the RB over the WR is more about scarcity safety and opportunity cost. I do think Forte and Spiller will be top 12 RB in 2014.

The curve at WR is much smoother, so I think I should be able to get players who will not help me win, but should do enough that I am not losing too much total points at the WR position that the advantage I gained from 2 possible top 12 RB will even itself out.

I do not like taking a QB early however I really like what Snyder did this offseason for a change. I think hiring Jay Gruden means near 600 passing attempts for RG3 with improved weapons to work with and a push on defensive improvement means he is going to be a top 5 QB in 2014.

So it was not an intentional strategy to pass WR. That is just how the draft fell for me.

By the time the draft got to my 5th round pick at 77 overall there had been 26 WR selected. So the less attractive WR3 or lesser prospects. At that point the value of the TE was greater than the WR relative to other WR I will be taking later on.

I did not like using the last flex spot this early and I think you guys drafting around me are making pay a bit for that. Especially CalBear who has taken Greg Jennings and Kendall Wright who I also had targeted in the same range as the WR I did get. Terrance Williams and Brandin Cooks.

edit - I had the PPR RB numbers in there at first by mistake.
 
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If it makes you feel better, I had a list of three players on my pre-draft for 7.14/8.03: Terrance Williams, Marvin Jones, and Greg Jennings, in that order, and you snagged Williams just before me. Definitely felt like value swung back around to WRs with no true RB starters left.

Got my Bear, too, and I think with pretty good value. To win I'll need Cincinatti to be a good passing offense (I have AJ Green also), which is perhaps not likely but is not totally implausible.

 
I am pretty excited about Greg Jennings and it was very hard for me to rank a Cowboy over a Viking.

That is pretty much what it came down to is that I expect the Cowboys to be throwing a lot more than the Vikings. I had Jones in that tier as well. All of them (and others) very close to the same.

 
I do think the upside down strategy is very much in vogue right now, and rightly so as the gap between passing and running the ball widens. It is to the point now that it isn't upside down that is right side up. Particularly here where a receiving RB doesn't get the cheddar that the WR do.

I do try to go against the grain too much and take on more risk than I should.

 
As the last team to draft a RB, I'm pretty pleased to get Ridley as the 34th RB drafted. Interested in Anarchy's thoughts on the New England running game this season.

 
Anarchy99 said:
LOL. I drafted the wrong player.
Who were you hoping for, Amendola?
Sadly, yes. Trust me, I don't really want him. Too risky. But if he could ever play a season without getting hurt plus with post season games playing in NE, his scoring potential in this format is pretty high. We all can dream, right?

 
I'd like to thank Fiddles for keeping me from taking two Raiders in a row. I was a bit surprised to see MJD go right after J.Jones, but he was indeed next on my draft list.

I think taking both Raider RBs is a slightly odd choice in this format; seems to make more sense in best ball than total points.

 
MJD was on my short list but not before Hyde or DeAngelo WIlliams. So I am pretty happy to land both of those guys this late.

 
I'd like to thank Fiddles for keeping me from taking two Raiders in a row. I was a bit surprised to see MJD go right after J.Jones, but he was indeed next on my draft list.

I think taking both Raider RBs is a slightly odd choice in this format; seems to make more sense in best ball than total points.
Was not me. There it is grabbed McFadden.
 
I'd like to thank Fiddles for keeping me from taking two Raiders in a row. I was a bit surprised to see MJD go right after J.Jones, but he was indeed next on my draft list.

I think taking both Raider RBs is a slightly odd choice in this format; seems to make more sense in best ball than total points.
Was not me. There it is grabbed McFadden.
Oh, right, sorry.

TII, wassup?

 
Edelman, Amendola, and Dobson. Now all I need is Gronk to get hurt and all my guys to stay healthy and my plan for total worldwide domination will be complete.

 
Dobson was tempting because of the playoff potential for him. It was kind of tough for me to take those RB over him. But there are still a few more WR out there I like.

 
Dobson was tempting because of the playoff potential for him. It was kind of tough for me to take those RB over him. But there are still a few more WR out there I like.
From weeks 2-9 last year (ie, the few games he played last year), Dobson was actually the #21 WR in ppr leagues. It would not shock me if he were the Pats best fantasy receiver this year, as he is pegged to be the one WR that does not come of the field. Or his foot could never heel and he goes on IR with like 3 catches for 38 yards on the entire season.

 
Dobson was tempting because of the playoff potential for him. It was kind of tough for me to take those RB over him. But there are still a few more WR out there I like.
From weeks 2-9 last year (ie, the few games he played last year), Dobson was actually the #21 WR in ppr leagues. It would not shock me if he were the Pats best fantasy receiver this year, as he is pegged to be the one WR that does not come of the field. Or his foot could never heel and he goes on IR with like 3 catches for 38 yards on the entire season.
So you grabbed three Patriot receivers after scoffing at my Brady pick?

 
Dobson was tempting because of the playoff potential for him. It was kind of tough for me to take those RB over him. But there are still a few more WR out there I like.
From weeks 2-9 last year (ie, the few games he played last year), Dobson was actually the #21 WR in ppr leagues. It would not shock me if he were the Pats best fantasy receiver this year, as he is pegged to be the one WR that does not come of the field. Or his foot could never heel and he goes on IR with like 3 catches for 38 yards on the entire season.
So you grabbed three Patriot receivers after scoffing at my Brady pick?
I cited two minor concerns. That's scoffing at your Brady pick?

 

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