The islands in its way tend to hamper development, and have broken up hurricanes in the past. That and it's cruising at 20mph, if it slows down, it can develop better.92L firing up.
Already made TD but that's about as far as it will get. Apparently will be a big hunk of nothing in a few days.The islands in its way tend to hamper development, and have broken up hurricanes in the past. That and it's cruising at 20mph, if it slows down, it can develop better.92L firing up.
It is, but it's also in that slot where it could go any direction. Everyone from the gulf to up the east coast have to keep an eye on it.Next! Obviously way too far out to worry about right now.
We've got 93l which looks likely to form into a TD soon and behind that we have "yikes". https://scontent-b-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1.0-9/10526034_723478337699427_9062421446959632561_n.jpgIt is, but it's also in that slot where it could go any direction. Everyone from the gulf to up the east coast have to keep an eye on it.Next! Obviously way too far out to worry about right now.
Yeah, almost certain it'll be OTS. Real easy to see the steering currents here. http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif Can also see another with a slight chance about to come off Africa at the end of the loop. If it can make it to water it might be something to watch.
That one could get interesting for the Gulf next week.Invest 96L looking like it could be the third named storm of the season.
Looks like the models have it blowing out to sea.That one could get interesting for the Gulf next week.Invest 96L looking like it could be the third named storm of the season.
Please keep us posted.....Guess I'll post in here now. I forgot there was a thread for the Hurricane Season.
Looks like convection of 96L isn't blowing up the way the models suggested. It's actually starting to disorganize more than organize. Hurricane Hunters have had a flight scheduled for today, but now that may be pushed back. Still waiting on the decision for that.
There's still a chance this thing turns into Cristobal. It's just that last night, people believed it was growing very rapidly. That didn't happen overnight like expected.JaxBill said:Was hoping 96L would do just enough to be named Cristobal (Colon) and run weakly into the Bahamas.
Yeah, model shows strong ridge in the south which should build the trough in the western Atlantic and that turns it N/NE.TheIronSheik said:Looks like the models have it blowing out to sea.That one could get interesting for the Gulf next week.Invest 96L looking like it could be the third named storm of the season.
The thought was the faster this thing developed, the more west it could have gone. So much so, that at one point models were thinking TX/LA border. Considering where 96L is at now, the chances this is a swing and a miss gets more and more likely. Looks like it could still become a pretty hefty storm, though. Guess Bermuda is still in the <Archer> DANGER ZONE! </Archer>Yeah, model shows strong ridge in the south which should build the trough in the western Atlantic and that turns it N/NE.TheIronSheik said:Looks like the models have it blowing out to sea.That one could get interesting for the Gulf next week.Invest 96L looking like it could be the third named storm of the season.
The circulation center of 96L has jumped considerably to the northwest over the past day, resulting in northward shifts in the expected track of the system from all of the major models. On Saturday, 96L may pass near or over the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. By Sunday, 96L is expected to be near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and both the GFS and UKMET models predict that 96L will be able to develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, though Sunday, then rise on Monday. With dry air expected to be in the region, wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast. However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively.
Interesting. As I posted this, that second link updated again. And moved some to the west.Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.
Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.
Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
HWRF is based off GFS. GFS is not good at long range.Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.
Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.
Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
To be fair, as I said in this thread and the other, none of these models are good until a storm actually develops. That's why there are so many wildly different predictions.HWRF is based off GFS. GFS is not good at long range.Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.
Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.
Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
It's either going to be nothing, or something big. Or possibly somewhere in between. That, I can assure you. Well. I'm about 70% sure of that. Take that to the bank brohans.This "storm," like many before it, looks to be nothing but a bunch of hot air.
Aren't they all?This "storm," like many before it, looks to be nothing but a bunch of hot air.
I'd advise against looking at one particular model and worrying about where it sends it. A lot of times these models can have a tough time with data, especially long range. Again, 96L hasn't even become a storm yet, and this is the main reason a lot of models are having trouble with long range forecasting.The GFDL puts 96L right into Atlantic City.
Yeah, but hairy armpits.But the European models are smarter and more sophisticated.
Maybe a little.Yeah, but hairy armpits.But the European models are smarter and more sophisticated.
Also, wasn't sheik freaking out about Arthur on the outer banks?
Not sure I was freaking out. What I had said was that I don't like when people not to worry about a certain storm. Mainly because your level of preparedness and knowledge may be completely different. Your idea of freaking out may be to stay indoors and hunker down. But someone else could hear "don't worry" and think it's safe to go roam the streets.Yeah, but hairy armpits.But the European models are smarter and more sophisticated.
Also, wasn't sheik freaking out about Arthur on the outer banks?