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Top Targets Through Week 4 (1 Viewer)

thanks for posting the link. Looking at the top 30ish list, there are some guys that stand out who seem to have been blowing opportunities when looking at their reception % compared to target: Vincent Jackson 38.24%, Dem Thomas 45.16%, Robert Wood 41.38%, Sammy Watkins 52.94%, Victor Cruz 56.25%, Riley Cooper 55.17%. Dem Thomas and Vic Cruz I think have already or will shortly right the ship. Woods and Watkins being on this list could mean value if you can grab them assuming it was EJ's terrible passing and not their own ineptitude. I don't watch Buffalo games so I have no idea which it is. It's interesting both are on there, or maybe not a surprise that they both show such a lower %. Riley Cooper underperforming again, but that's still potential value there too. No comment on VJax, he's just terrible.

 
thanks for posting the link. Looking at the top 30ish list, there are some guys that stand out who seem to have been blowing opportunities when looking at their reception % compared to target: Vincent Jackson 38.24%, Dem Thomas 45.16%, Robert Wood 41.38%, Sammy Watkins 52.94%, Victor Cruz 56.25%, Riley Cooper 55.17%. Dem Thomas and Vic Cruz I think have already or will shortly right the ship. Woods and Watkins being on this list could mean value if you can grab them assuming it was EJ's terrible passing and not their own ineptitude. I don't watch Buffalo games so I have no idea which it is. It's interesting both are on there, or maybe not a surprise that they both show such a lower %. Riley Cooper underperforming again, but that's still potential value there too. No comment on VJax, he's just terrible.
Watkins has some drops and Woods has a couple too but EJ has been embarrassingly inaccurate. Also, he's just not seeing the open receiver. Naming Orton the starter I think is a clear sign of Manuels poor play. I will admit that both of those two do need to do a better job of catching the ball.

 
I guess I've never really explored catch rate. Would mid-60's be considered pretty sustainable for WR? Anything too high becomes a prime sell-high candidate? Anything too low indicates a buy-low, or terrible hands?

 
This is interesting. I know in my PPR league that Watkins has barely put up low end WR2 numbers. Does the change in QB move him up the ranks? Not sure what it would take to get Watkins right now but seems like the upside is there with those targets.

 
I guess I've never really explored catch rate. Would mid-60's be considered pretty sustainable for WR? Anything too high becomes a prime sell-high candidate? Anything too low indicates a buy-low, or terrible hands?
This is something I have been looking at for quite awhile. The target data is not always consistent or reliable. Some of the targets are passes thrown away but in a receivers general area. Not all targets are the same either as some receivers are getting mostly high percentage targets while others are getting a majority of deep targets, which is a lower percentage play.

It would be helpful to know what the league average by position is over the last 3 to 5 seasons as a baseline.

I did calculate this for RB awhile back and found that the average RB catch rate was about 73%

For WR it used to be around 60% but I have not calculated this for all WR with recent data. I am guessing it may have gone up slightly along with the higher volume of targets, as there are more WR screens and high percentage targets being used around the league in recent years than there used to be. If anyone has the answer to what the average catch percentage for WR is over the last 3 seasons (or 5) that would be good to know.

For TE I am not sure what the average catch rate is.

I generally try to avoid WR who's career catch rates are significantly lower than 60% and I cannot think of a WR to make me regret doing that.

While some may be lower because they are often being targeted on deep, low percentage routes, if the WR is not diverse enough in their skill set to get some higher percentage targets as well as the deep looks, that is going to be an inconsistent player. There is also risk of reduced targets to these players because of coaching or QB decision making. They cannot keep giving a lot of targets to players who are not making a play on more than 50% of them.

 
something else to consider is that the possession guys and TE's will have a higher rate than the deep threat guys. Welker types and RB's will be high as well, which I would guess falls in line with QB accuracy by distance. In general anything above 60% should be considered good as Biabreakable stated above, I'm actually surprised to see so many receivers in the 70s and 80s range, though when you look at the names it makes sense that those are the guys on top of fantasy leader boards every week. I would chalk that up to the consistency factor and not the home run hitter types.

 
Interesting to see if E.Sanders and A.Hawkins can sustain Top 5 targets/game

I was rather surprised at how cheap Hawkins is/was still coming. Lot of people assume his targets going to sharply decreasing with a 'healthy Cameron' and/or impending return of Gordon. I'm not one of those people (in regards to Cameron). Cameron himself has stated it'll be a season long issue. Of bigger concern is Gordon's return, but I'll take the Hawkins production til then.(and assuming Gordon does nothing stupid). Seems like he'll be this year's Kendall Wright/Danny Amendola that'll be a nice steady PPR type.

 
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