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A little dynasty TE discussion... (1 Viewer)

If you think situation can create an elite TE, I'd take another look at this post:

EBF said:
By my count there are only 9 other active TEs in the NFL who have ever eclipsed 900 receiving yards in a single season:
Brent Celek

Dallas Clark

Vernon Davis

Antonio Gates

Tony Gonzalez

Jimmy Graham

Rob Gronkowski

Kellen Winslow

Jason Witten
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I only see one guy on that list whose numbers were purely manufactured (Celek). The fact that nobody in the NFL is consistently manufacturing elite TE production without an elite TEs suggests to me that it's not easy to manufacture elite TE production unless you have an elite TE. To me, the Norv thing is just a misreading of the greatness of Gates/Cameron. As if people looked at the success of Chad Johnson and AJ Green with the Bengals and decided that the weather in Cincinnati was responsible. They're observing a legitimate phenomenon, but their explanation for its cause is incorrect. Cameron excelled because he's a 6'5" TE with sold coordination, WR-like route ability, and better speed than almost any linebacker. Norv was just the guy who flipped the power switch.

That's not to say that situation matters. A good QB and a high-scoring offense can elevate a player's production. That's how modest talents like Brent Celek, Heath Miller, Brandon Pettigrew, and Brandon Myers have put together useful seasons once or twice in their careers. My hunch is that Julius Thomas is closer to those guys than he is to Gates/Witten/Winslow/etc. This is also the type of player that Rudolph has the potential to become. He's not terrible and if you put him with a good TE, he would be capable of a top 10 FF season. However, he's not a great talent and he never will be. It's very hard to manufacture greatness without a great player at your disposal.

If you're picking between two equivalent talents (say Rudolph and Martellus Bennett), I would also pick the guy with the better situation to have a better immediate outlook. However, if you're picking between two players on an entirely different talent plane (such as Jordan Cameron and Kyle Rudolph), I would always take the better player regardless of situation.

 
Look I hear you that Cameron > Rudolph. My point was not that Cameron = Rudolph, but that Rudolph can vaguely approximate this year what Cameron did last year, and therefore Rudolph = Eifert, at least when it comes to the tier.

I think what Bia was getting at is that if you are sternly anti-situation and purely consider talent, then you miss timing opportunities. If you truly believe that OJT is just a guy, but Eifert is something elite, then you have a good sell high window and can get something in return, because I think right now OJT probably has more value. But that's only the case if you in fact own OJT because you bought into the situation last year, and avoided Eifert because the situation has not been and probably will not be ripe until 2015.

 
karmarooster said:
Look I hear you that Cameron > Rudolph. My point was not that Cameron = Rudolph, but that Rudolph can vaguely approximate this year what Cameron did last year, and therefore Rudolph = Eifert, at least when it comes to the tier.

I think what Bia was getting at is that if you are sternly anti-situation and purely consider talent, then you miss timing opportunities. If you truly believe that OJT is just a guy, but Eifert is something elite, then you have a good sell high window and can get something in return, because I think right now OJT probably has more value. But that's only the case if you in fact own OJT because you bought into the situation last year, and avoided Eifert because the situation has not been and probably will not be ripe until 2015.
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A lot of people will be disappointed and complaining about Cameron when 2014 comes to a close.

 
Rotoworld:

Lions GM Martin Mayhew expects TE Joseph Fauria to have an expanded role next season.
Fauria was a strict red-zone specialist as a rookie, managing seven touchdowns on only 18 receptions. He could enter 2014 as the favorite to start if Detroit fails to bring back free agent Brandon Pettigrew. Even if Pettigrew re-signs, the Lions are expected to get Fauria more involved under new OC Joe Lombardi. Fauria is a TE2 with upside in Dynasty fantasy leagues.

Source: The Oakland Press
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The Oakland Press suggests free agent Brandon Pettigrew's cost to the Lions will be similar to Dennis Pitta's five-year, $32 million contract.
The Lions are interested in bringing Pettigrew back, but his cost should be considerably less than $6.4 million annually. Then-OC Scott Linehan decreased his role last season, losing snaps to Joseph Fauria in red-zone situations and overall simply being utilized less in the pass game. Already 29, Pettigrew struggles mightily as a pass catcher and has little to no playmaking ability. Giving Pettigrew "Pitta money" would instantly be one of free agency's biggest overpays.

Source: The Oakland Press
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Rotoworld:

Mychal Rivera is expected to be the Raiders starting tight end in 2014.
Rivera officially started just three games as a sixth-round rookie last year, but appeared in all 16 games and played on 622-of-1070 snaps (58.1 percent). He surprisingly came on strong in the second half of the year, posting a 22/233/3 line across the final eight outings. Still, we wouldn't be high on Rivera as an undersized (6'3/245) tight end that doesn't bring much speed to the table (4.81 forty at the 2013 Combine). He should face competition for the starting gig as the Raiders try to infuse talent across the board this offseason.

Source: ESPN.com
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karmarooster said:
Did a little more digging on Eifert and Gresham... Gresham is still just 25 (!?!), and has had more yards, receptions, and TDs in every season than Eifert, including his rookie season (52/471/4 vs. 39/445/2).

Even assuming that Gresham is gone and Eifert can be the main TE despite his blocking deficiency, Eifert is still probably the 3rd best Red Zone target on the team behind AJG and Jones.

I just think if you're paying TE4 price for Eifert, or valuing him as such, you're assuming that everything will work out perfectly, with no margin for error. I'd much rather have Rudolph, who will pop with Norv (and will be 24 going into next season, same as EIfert) -- we already know he's a red zone beast, and can be expected to put up more yards. Even last year Rudolph's 30/300/3 over 8 games works out to 60/600/6, and that's without the Norv factor. That's what we might expect from Eifert two years from now as the main TE.

Further, on Reed, yes he's lacking in size for a proto-TE, but I don't think that gives Eifert a leg up on him since both are deficient in blocking, it's just that Eifert is bigger and should be better at blocking while we all know Reed is a pseudo-TE who won't be asked to block.

I think that's enough poo-pooing Eifert for now, if someone wants to take the other side of the debate.
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When I think of Eifert I compare him to Olsen. He may never put up Gronk / Graham numbers (unless Cinny becomes a powerhouse offense) but I think he'll be a solid top 10 option. Now what you want to pay for about a decade of top 10 production is up to you.

 
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Rotoworld:

The New York Daily News reports the Jets are in "serious negotiations" with free agent TE Jeff Cumberland.
The Jets are in love with Cumberland and reportedly expect him to make a big jump in his development next season. It's unclear whether a deal will get hammered out before free agency opens Tuesday afternoon, but the sides have been talking for a few weeks. Cumberland would ideally be a No. 2 catch-first tight end.

Source: Manish Mehta on Twitter
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karmarooster said:
Look I hear you that Cameron > Rudolph. My point was not that Cameron = Rudolph, but that Rudolph can vaguely approximate this year what Cameron did last year, and therefore Rudolph = Eifert, at least when it comes to the tier.

I think what Bia was getting at is that if you are sternly anti-situation and purely consider talent, then you miss timing opportunities. If you truly believe that OJT is just a guy, but Eifert is something elite, then you have a good sell high window and can get something in return, because I think right now OJT probably has more value. But that's only the case if you in fact own OJT because you bought into the situation last year, and avoided Eifert because the situation has not been and probably will not be ripe until 2015.
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Glad someone gets what I am trying to say.

In a broader context while I think Eifert is one of the better TE prospects to come out in awhile I do not see him as being head and shoulders above other quality TE such as Rudolph in talent. So EBF and I have been going back n forth on that one pretty much since Eifert was drafted.

Almost every season there is a TE who gets a lot of hype as being the next big thing but only 2 or 3 guys ever truly separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I think Eifert has as good a chance or better than most of actually becoming that player, but the situation is not helping that cause.

What helps TE have career years (for those who are not Sharpe/Gates/Graham) is actually a lot about situation. It helps if the team does not have as many quality WR some times. Or a QB who features the TE position more. Or a coach that features the TE position more. So I think those situations can help identify which TE will have top 10 seasons as much or more than identifying the talent of player who may be good enough to have those top seasons repeatedly.

 
What are people's thoughts on Fauria next year? With Pettigrew gone do people believe the reports that he will get an expanded role and be more than just a redzone target? If so, what kind of numbers could he put up?

 
Rotoworld:

The New York Daily News reports the Jets are "high" on second-year TE Zach Sudfeld's "potential."
The Jets aren't throwing in the towel on Sudfeld after re-signing Jeff Cumberland. A waiver claim from the Patriots last October, Sudfeld goes 6-foot-7, 253 with 4.78 wheels, soft hands, and a 37-inch vertical. He certainly has upside as a receiver, but must improve as a blocker and learn to better use his body.

Source: Manish Mehta on Twitter
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Rotoworld:

Texans released TE Owen Daniels.
Daniels, 31, was set to count $6.25 million against the cap. With the Texans having just about $10 million in space, clearing Daniels' $4.5 million in savings was a necessity. Second-year TE Ryan Griffin is now being set up to take over No. 1 duties in Houston. He's a big-time breakout candidate after showing well down the stretch in 2013. Daniels has battled injuries the past couple years.

Related: Texans, Ryan Griffin

Source: John McClain on Twitter
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Am a Griffin fan, but I would have preferred they kept Daniels. Without Owen, there is no way they don't add some younger competition. With Daniels, you could at least hope he got transitioned into the role some more.

 
they can re-sign Graham or bring in one of the other so - so FAs out there like Quarless.

 
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jonboltz said:
Am a Griffin fan, but I would have preferred they kept Daniels. Without Owen, there is no way they don't add some younger competition. With Daniels, you could at least hope he got transitioned into the role some more.
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I like it. I don't see a lot of young talented TE's out there they can sign that I think are better than Griffin. Maybe cutting Daniels will get them to increase their offer to Graham but I had read something yesterday where he sounded resigned to leaving. I don't see them in the market for a guy like Finley and rookie TE's usually take awhile to get up to speed so I like it for Griffin.

The only thing I don't like about it for Griffin is I was so sold on the fact that OD was past his prime and would not hold up physically that I would have been interested in picking up Griffin anyway, both in re-draft and dynasty. Now, depending on what they do at the position, very likely his cost just went up. I had to cut Griffin last week in a FFPC 1.5 TE league with 14 position player off season limits. My thought process was if they kept OD I could redraft him fairly cheap. Now I absolutely regret cutting him but I'd concede and to your point they still might bring in some high level comp.

 
Rotoworld:

Bucs signed TE Brandon Myers, formerly of the Giants, to a two-year, $4 million contract.
The Bucs needed an upgrade on pass-catching specialist Tim Wright. They find it in uninspiring yet inexpensive Myers, a plodding in-line tight end that posted a 47-522-4 line with the Giants last season. He's best served as part of a committee.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
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Faust said:
Evan Silva ‏@evansilva 2m

#Texans second-year TE Ryan Griffin has far more upside than Garrett Graham, who is small, slow, and can't block.
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man, when Roto doesn't like someone they sure do bury them

Texans re-signed TE Garrett Graham to a three-year contract.

Graham returns as Owen Daniels walks. A 2010 fourth-rounder, Graham has proven to have little upside, and enters his fifth NFL season with only 78 career catches. Given a chance to shine while Daniels was sidelined with a broken leg last season, Graham posted a middling 49/545/5 line, showing little play-making ability. He can't block. Second-year pro Ryan Griffin has a brighter future.

I watched him play in place of Daniels and he looked capable of being a starter. Not saying that Griffin can't over take him but right now I rather Graham.
 
Packers re-signed TE Andrew Quarless.
Quarless was surprisingly drawing strong interest on the open market. He reportedly had as many as eight teams after his services. The 25-year-old hasn't been much of a pass-catcher in his young career but should be given an opportunity to replace Jermichael Finely in Green Bay. Brandon Bostick will also be in the mix.
 
Rotoworld:

Free agent Jermichael Finley left his Seahawks visit without a contract, but the sides have "mutual interest" in a deal.
Per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the Seahawks are waiting for Finely to gain full medical clearance from his neck surgery before signing him. Finley hasn't scheduled any other visits, and it's possible his Seattle signing is a formality upon getting the green light health-wise.

Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
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Rotoworld:

According to the New York Daily News, the Jets will sign TE Brandon Pettigrew shortly.
It's an upgrade on Zach Sudfeld and Jeff Cumberland, but it's far from a difference-making acquisition. Pettigrew is a plodding, catch-and-fall guy in the passing game that has averaged 9.95 yards per reception in his five-year career. He's also been a liability when blocking in the run game. Pettigrew will barely be on the TE2 radar with Geno Smith and the Jets.

Related: Jets

Source: Manish Mehta on Twitter
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Texans TE Garrett Graham says new coach Bill O'Brien plans to use him as a "move tight end, an H-back."

"I'm excited about that," said Graham, who received $11.25 million via his new three-year contract. Graham's athleticism pales in comparison to Aaron Hernandez's, but O'Brien was on New England's staff during Hernandez's finest years as an H-back and move tight end. It sounds like the Texans are penciling Ryan Griffin into the "Gronk" role, though things could change on draft weekend.
 
Coeur de Lion said:
IHEARTFF said:
Pettigrew re-signed in Det for 4 yrs/$16. Scrub.
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Hope all you Fauria owners sold high...
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I know I wasn't a fan. The owner in my league was trying to move him hard, trying to sell him off as if he was the next big thing. He is just a heavy foot tall dude who can jump higher than the other dude in the endzone a few times. Pettigrew is nothing special but as an overall player he seem sway better than Fauria.

 
Rotoworld:

Brandon Pettigrew said he thinks he'll see more targets in the Lions' new offensive scheme.
Pettigrew is coming off a year that saw him post four-year lows in catches (41), yards (416) and targets (64) while blocking on 26.6 percent of pass plays. He's been told that Jim Caldwell and Joe Lombardi want a more even distribution of targets going forward. That may be true, but the problem here will always be Pettigrew's lumbering, catch-and-fall habits. He's averaged just 9.95 yards per reception and scored 16 touchdowns in his five-year career.

Source: detroitlions.com
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Faust said:
Rotoworld:

Brandon Pettigrew said he thinks he'll see more targets in the Lions' new offensive scheme.
Pettigrew is coming off a year that saw him post four-year lows in catches (41), yards (416) and targets (64) while blocking on 26.6 percent of pass plays. He's been told that Jim Caldwell and Joe Lombardi want a more even distribution of targets going forward. That may be true, but the problem here will always be Pettigrew's lumbering, catch-and-fall habits. He's averaged just 9.95 yards per reception and scored 16 touchdowns in his five-year career.

Source: detroitlions.com
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Positive thinking is great but just be happy you got paid, Brandon.

 
Rotoworld:

Dwayne Allen (hip) said he's back to 100 percent.
"I’m great. I’m actually to 100 percent," Allen said. Allen is doing pilates three days a week, among other rehab activities, and should get some work in at OTAs next month. The third-year tight end underwent hip surgery in early October and was slapped with a six-month recovery timetable. Allen should return as a dominating in-line blocker with plus hands who plays most snaps, forcing Coby Fleener into the "move" role. Allen is a high-end TE2 with upside.

Source: colts.com
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Rotoworld:

Adrien Robinson - TE - Giants
Coach Tom Coughlin called his tight end position "a question mark."
Coughlin predictably isn't ready to throw all his support behind injury-prone Adrien Robinson, an intriguing size/speed freak with zero catches in three career games. They're a strong bet to use a draft pick at the position, perhaps as early as UNC's Eric Ebron at No. 12 overall. New OC Ben McAdoo comes from a Packers scheme that featured the tight end in the passing game.

Source: Tom Rock on Twitter
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The Tight End: A Quarterback's Best Friend​
​
by Charlie Coiner​
Tight Ends Coach and Special Teams Coordinator

University of Tennessee

​
As I sit here to write this article this morning the New England Patriots and New York Giants are preparing to square off in Indianapolis to decide this year's Super Bowl Winner. The New England Patriots have done a fantastic job over the years of adapting to the personnel on their football team. This year is no different. The same team that has used Defensive players and Offensive linemen at the Tight End position in past years has featured Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on their way to this year's game of all games. Granted as you read this article you are more than likely not fortunate enough to have on your team the likes of Gronkowski, Hernandez or Brady for that matter. However, odds are you are not utilizing one of your best weapons to keep your offense on the field and extending drives that eventually end up in points.It has become vogue these days for offensive coaches to talk about "explosives" as in explosive plays that result in huge chunks of yardage. While I certainly appreciate the value in explosive plays I have seen coordinators get themselves in trouble by focusing more on this than establishing any semblance of a run game or a short to intermediate pass game that will keep offensive drives alive and take some pressure off of their defense. Too often in the attempt to manufacture an explosive play (often times with nonexplosive players) offenses get behind the chains instead of putting the QB in manageable down and distances on second and third down. One of the best ways to avoid this mistake is to make the Tight End pass game a bigger part of your thinking as you game plan. In the following few paragraphs I will outline why and how the Tight End can become your Quarterback's best friend on the football field.

Below, I have included several plays that have proven to be successful in one way or another over my career as a Tight End coach. Hopefully, they will be of some benefit to you. More importantly, I hope that as you game plan in the future you will give serious consideration to the Tight End passing game and the advantages it brings for your Quarterback and your offense!

  • Allow your QB to find an early rhythm: You have worked all week on what you expect to see from the opposing defense. You hope that the opponent hasn't changed that much from what you have game planned off of but you're never sure. Your QB isn't either. Not to mention that the speed of the scout team is no where close to the speed the opponent will play at on game day. Allow your QB to complete a few simple short to intermediate passes to his TE early in the game to establish a rhythm while confirming that your opponent is actually lining up as you expected
  • Tight Ends are not always covered even when they are covered: There is something about a big target and a big body that is hard to defend. If a Tight End is taught properly there are pass routes that are virtually impossible to defend because the defender has to play through the Tight End's Body to get to the ball. The Tight End and the Quarterback will both benefit if they realize the value in a physical 6-8 yard pass completion.
  • Use your Tight Ends to create multiple formations and mismatches: Boise State has made a living off of this in recent years. If you have a Tight End who can also line up in the backfield or he is talented enough to extend him out in some formations you have a serious weapon at your disposal. Even if your Tight End can't do these things a Tight End who trades, shifts and motions to change the strength and responsibilities of the defense can create major matchup problems in the pass game.
  • Tight Ends are great options for young and/or immobile QB's: A lot of teams have the advantage of playing with an athletic QB who can get himself out of trouble with his feet if everyone is covered. Other teams have a seasoned veteran QB who is experienced at going through his reads to find the second or third option in the progression. If you don't have these advantages then you must find other ways for your QB to excel. If your QB is immobile there is a good chance you are eventually going to see some type of 2 man coverage. When this happens your inside receivers/Tight Ends must win. Often times the Tight end is matched up on a Line Backer and if taught properly he can get open by using great technique despite having limited speed. If your QB is young then the advantages are obvious. The Tight End throws are shorter, easier to read and often times wide open as defenses focus on other areas.
  • Dropback pass is not the only way to get the ball to the Tight End: Tight Ends are very involved in every facet of the offense. They are normally responsible for the majority of the shifts, motions and formation game planning, as well as run blocking, pass protection and route running. Due to this the Tight Ends are great targets when it comes time to game plan for other types of passes other than drop back. Playaction Passes, Waggles/Boots/Nakeds and Sprint passes are all effective ways to create easy throws for your QB using the Tight End.
  • The Tight End can bail a QB out in tough situations: Every coach and QB has been there. You are playing a defense who is going to try to expose your QB by doing one of several things: A) Play you in 2 Man all day because your QB can't run very well and they plan to take away his favorite outside receivers. B) Overload the box with at least one extra defender and man up on your outside receivers to challenge your QB to make plays all day while allowing no run game. C) Bringing pressure on almost every down trying expose your protection and challenge your QB to make a quick and accurate throw. It's at times like these that the QB needs a security blanket. A Tight End who will run disciplined routes and catch the ball either as an answer to 2 man or as a viable option when all others are not available is worth his weight in gold. A well coached Tight End will provide that catch that buys your team an extra set of downs and keeps your offense on the field.
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Some clips in the link going into other detail - http://www.compusportsmedia.com/main/articles.asp?StoryID=258

We’ve seen it already in 2013: Jimmy Graham is dominating defenses, and players likeJordan Cameron and Julius Thomas are emerging as top options in their respective offenses. In 2002 – just 11 full seasons ago – Jeremy Shockey led all tight ends in receiving yards with 894. Jimmy Graham is on pace to more than double that total in 2013.

It appears as though tight ends are being used more, and in turn, have become more valuable both to real and fantasy football. That, at least, is what it looks like. The reality of the situation is that this tight end surge has little to do with volume, and more about sheer effectiveness on the field.

Tight End Usage is Comparable

As we know, quantity doesn’t equal quality. It’s exactly why Dexter should’ve stopped after Season 4 – the longer it went (quantity), the worse it got (quality). You have to know when to go out on top.

NFL circles seem to think that tight ends are like Dexter – the real reason they’re so relevant in today’s game is because they’re being used – targeted – more in offenses. While this is true, we have to remember that the league is a much different beast than it was in 2003. Tight ends are seeing more volume, but so are quarterbacks.

Year Total TE Targets Total QB Drop Backs TE Targets/QB Drop Backs 2003 2,673 17,518 15.3% 2004 2,925 17,482 16.7% 2005 3,061 17,583 17.4% 2006 3,085 17,506 17.6% 2007 3,223 18,113 17.8% 2008 3,246 17,520 18.5% 2009 3,493 18,087 19.3% 2010 3,543 18,359 19.3% 2011 3,683 18,571 19.8% 2012 3,728 18,931 19.6%

As you can see, total tight end targets have increased each year since 2003. What’s interesting about these numbers, however, is that the percentage of tight end targets (on drop backs) has remained fairly constant since 2009. We saw 19.3 percent that season, 19.3 percent the following year, then 19.8 and 19.7. This season, we’re actually on pace for a drop in percentage of tight end targets, falling down to 18.3 percent. Those are 2008-like levels.

So while volume is increasing each season – we saw over 300 more tight end targets in 2012 than in 2009 – the percentage of targets hasn’t increased nearly as much.

This is all cumulative tight end use though. We don’t always care about that, especially in fantasy football. What about the top-notch guys? What about the top-10 target getters? Let’s take a look at the percentage of tight end targets among this group:

Year Top-10 TE Targets/Drop Backs Top-10 TE Targets/Tight End Targets 2003 4.76% 31.11% 2004 5.90% 35.30% 2005 6.26% 38.05% 2006 5.99% 34.03% 2007 6.20% 34.80% 2008 5.83% 31.51% 2009 6.52% 33.78% 2010 5.74% 29.70% 2011 6.32% 31.90% 2012 5.86% 29.90%

Top-10 tight ends – we’ll call them the elite ones – have seen a consistent percentage of total NFL targets since 2003. Again, the raw numbers are higher in the most recent years, and an extrapolated 2013 season sees the highest (6.56) percentage of top-10 tight end looks. But this shows us that things aren’t changing nearly as much as many think from a volume standpoint, and we can credit that to a new, pass-first NFL.

Another thing to note is the top-10 tight end target percentage among all tight ends. It looks as though the early- and mid-2000s saw a higher percentage of elite targets within the tight end position compared to the most recent seasons. In other words, top tight ends were seeing a more significant amount of targets compared to their peers during the Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates heyday.

Is Talent the New Divider?

Tight ends throughout the NFL have become more involved since 2009, as the elite players at the position used to see a larger percentage of total tight end targets back in the day. And by no surprise, 2009 was the year in fantasy football where we saw less disparity between theses elite tight ends – Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates – to the rest of the players at the position.

This isn’t to say that Gonzo, Witten and Gates aren’t talented pass-catchers. From a fantasy football perspective, however, their dominance from 2003 through 2008 may have been due to comparative volume rather than true on-the-field effectiveness.

Now, in 2013, we’ve reached a point where volume means less in the tight end world. The biggest differentiator from one tight end to the next looks like it could beeffectiveness and talent.

Here at numberFire, we use a metric called net expected points (NEP). Every situation on a football field has some sort of expected point value – how many points would an average team be expected to score in that particular situation? When a player helps contribute positively towards that NEP value, moving the ball downfield on key third downs or scoring a huge 80-yard touchdown, said player gets a positive NEP score.

You can dissect NEP a number of ways. What’s a receiver’s NEP on receptions only? What about when analyzing total targets? How about the pass-catchers expected point total on a per target basis?

Net expected points is a mathematical way to show how many real points a player helped contribute for his team. In other words, it’s a number that measure a player’s effectiveness on the field, and it’s one that doesn’t just look at the most basic, mundane football metrics. It looks at real game situations and what historically happens in those situations.

We can use NEP and divide it by the number of targets a receiver sees in order to see how efficient he was with each targeted catch. Like any metric, it becomes more difficult for a player to keep a high efficiency rate when targeted a lot, as he’s not able to skew the average with a few big plays. It’s like running back yard per carry averages – it’s rare to see the 6.0 yards per tote we saw with C.J. Spiller and Adrian Peterson last season, as they saw such a high volume of touches. This wouldn’t be as surprising from change-of-pace back, however.

Take a look at the top-5, -10 and -20 targeted tight ends in terms of NEP per target through the years:

Year Top 5 NEP/Target Top 10 NEP/Target Top 20 NEP/Target 2003 .60 .54 .56 2004 .69 .62 .58 2005 .67 .61 .59 2006 .65 .65 .58 2007 .70 .62 .60 2008 .64 .59 .57 2009 .68 .70 .68 2010 .59 .62 .59 2011 .69 .66 .66 2012 .68 .65 .65 2013 .79 .73 .66

As you can see, the NEP per target averages have remained fairly constant with an increase in total tight end targets (as shown before). In other words, these top tight ends are getting targeted more and they’re still doing just as much with the ball when they catch it.

I've inserted our current season - the 2013 one - because we're currently on pace to have the best elite tight end season in recent history. The top-5 tight ends are adding .79 points on a per target basis, which is significantly better than any other year analyzed. And remember, this is on a per target basis - volume is not the reason for this. Talent is.

The recent tight end surge in fantasy isn't just as simple as “they see more targets”, folks. Tight ends are playing better, and that’s the reason they’ve been so successful early on in 2013.

What This Means for Fantasy Football

This all may seem obvious, but this type of exercise is always good to do before we debate for the wrong side among football circles. The tight end usage, relative to total volume, has remained constant since 2009, but top tight ends are arguably getting better. Why? Effectiveness.

So what does this mean for fantasy football? Well, I think we need to move past simple target metrics when evaluating fantasy tight ends, especially if we’re looking to stream them. Though targets create opportunity, and in turn, fantasy points, they may be less valuable as they used to be because every relevant fantasy tight end sees a significant number of targets nowadays. Clearly Jordan Cameron and Jimmy Graham have separated themselves from the pack in fantasy because of volume, but they're also leading the league in net expected points efficiency. Combining these two factors has allowed them to be fantasy football unicorns this season.

Just take a look at some of the tight ends in 2013 and you’ll see exactly why people may be wrong by buying into the volume-to-production fallacy when it comes to tight ends.Brandon Myers, Jared Cook and Dallas Clark each have top-10 tight end targets, but have done a whole lot of nothing since Week 1. Conversely, Julius Thomas ranks 12th in tight end looks, and after tonight, Charles Clay could still be in the 15 range in terms of targets. Both of them are TE1s so far this season.

This could easily be the case for wide receivers as well, and perhaps this will lead to an even larger discussion. After all, quarterbacks are playing at a higher level than they ever have, and because volume is somewhat capped by time in an NFL game (maybe not for the Eagles), maybe the future of fantasy football analysis will eliminate target metrics completely.

But regardless, this could be an opportunity to recognize the fallacy early and capitalize in your fantasy football leagues. https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1203/the-tight-end-surge-it-s-not-just-about-volume
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A couple other good articles-

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat-kirwan/22274208/position-breakdown-numbers-tell-us-te-production-explosion-only-growing

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/18/2014-offensive-coaching-changes/

 
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Rotoworld:

ESPN Boston believes the Patriots could consider moving WR Mark Harrison to tight end.
A meaty 6-foot-3, 230 pounds, Harrison spent his entire rookie year on the PUP list with a foot injury. A second-year undrafted free agent with 4.46 wheels, Harrison would be an intriguing prospect as a "move" tight end.

Source: ESPN Boston
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A Rookie Quarterback’s Real Best Friend[SIZE=.875em]Posted by Jason Lisk on September 7, 2010 [/SIZE]

From time to time, I hear that a tight end is a rookie quarterback's best friend. I've often wondered what this is supposed to mean. Do they room together and eat dinner after practice? Is it some hypothetical ideal, where the young quarterback should realize that he can utilize the tight end as a secondary outlet? Do people actually mean that the rookie quarterback does throw to the tight end more?

Whatever the original intention or origin of this truism, it seems to me that many people perceive the latter and actually do believe that a tight end paired with a young quarterback is a good thing. This talk comes up frequently this time of year, when people are looking for "value" in their fantasy drafts.

So, dubious of such claims about tight end and rookie quarterback glory, I decided to take a look at the data. I pulled every season where a rookie quarterback at age 24 or under threw 300+ passes in a season since the merger, and then looked at the reception distribution on those teams. 26 seasons made the list. I divided the receptions on those teams into WR1, WR2, WR3, RB1, and TE1. Here are the percentage of team receptions that went to each:

WR1: 23.8%

WR2: 16.1%

RB1: 15.4%

TE1: 10.4%

WR3: 8.1%

Others: 26.4%

For a quick and incomplete comparison, here is the distribution for the ten highest scoring teams from 2009

WR1: 23.6%

WR2: 15.6%

RB1: 11.9%

TE1: 15.9%

WR3: 10.7%

Others: 22.3%

I know that the tight end versus running back usage rates have changed a little in recent years, but there is no truth to the adage that a tight end is a rookie quarterback's best friend. Apparently, the Jeff Komlo to David Hill combo back in 1979 was quite memorable, and I'm going to attribute the rise of the "tight end is a young quarterback's best friend" mantra to that historic combination. It appears though, that it is a running back as a receiver who receives a relative percentage increase with rookie quarterbacks, while tight ends are, well, whatever the opposite of a young quarterback's best friend. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=7215
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What is intuitive about this is that a RB is the most likely position to benefit from a rookie QB starting. I am not sure if Fisk's article completely dismisses the idea. But interesting nonetheless.

As I was searching for stuff on this subject I came across a study that found a team drafting an offensive linemen in the 1st round has a positive impact on WR production but did not really help the TE production much at all- http://rotoacademy.com/category/blog/page/2/

 
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I recently acquired Jordan Cameron. I have to say I'm not really convinced on him. He's had the one year of stellar production but even that trailed off at the end as the team just kind of turned into a pile of goo. Is there good reason to expect results more akin to his blistering pace in the beginning of last year (averaging 6 for 75 and .75 td per game), or is he the guy from the second half who averaged (4 for 45 and .15 touchdowns per game).

He just seems like he really lost some serious steam there. I'm wondering if he isn't being overvalued a bit because of his aggregate numbers for the season (80 for 900 and 7tds is a nice stat line).

Edit: Ok I should have skimmed the thread first :bag:

 
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that second Tier of TEs all have their "warts". Cameron's 2nd half and new OC (and QB?) being his. JThomas just seems to be in the right place with his value tied to Peyton.

Still not convinced that any of the 2013 (or '14) Rookies are real difference makers, either.

 
Does anyone have updated rankings? Who is at the top?

Graham, Gronk, VDavis, JThomas

Witten, Ertz, Eifert

Cameron, Reed, DAllen

Gresham, Pettigrew, Fleener, Pitta, Rudolph

Olsen, Clay, L.Green

 
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Black said:
Does anyone have updated rankings? Who is at the top?

Graham, Gronk, VDavis, JThomas

Witten, Ertz, Eifert

Cameron, Reed, DAllen

Gresham, Pettigrew, Fleener, Pitta, Rudolph

Olsen, Clay, L.Green
Click to expand...
I'll give it a go

Anyone wanna post some rankings

#1 Graham

#2 Juluis

#3 Gronk (injury concerns, I think I might even pass at 3)

#4 Cameron

#5 Davis (would take Cameron over Davis due to age only)

#6 Olsen

#7 Rudolph

#8 Witten

#9 Bennett

#10 Ertz

#11 Eifert (going to be blocked by Gresham for 1 more yr but worth the hold; would t)

#12 Green

#13 Flenner

#14 Reed

Gets pretty murky here

#15 Cook

#16 D Allen

#17 Walker (late bloom last yr)

#18 Pitta ( a guy we just keep waiting for)

#19 Miller (usually finishes top 15)

#20 Kelco

#21 G Graham

#22 Griffin

#23 Gates

#24 Daniels

#25 Clay (was lasy yr a fluke, i think so)

#26 Wright

 
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Rotoworld:

ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett reports the team is high on second-year TE Josh Hill.
Hill, an undrafted free agent out of Idaho State, played 246 offensive snaps as a rookie and saw plenty of action in the playoffs as the No. 3 tight end. At his Pro Day, Hill posted a 4.66 forty and 36.5-inch vertical. A catch-first tight end with plus athleticism, the Saints could be grooming Hill for eventual No. 2 duties.

Source: ESPN.com
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Something I have been considering lately, and the reason for my hoarding of tight ends:


I am in 9 leagues, 1 with a TE flex, one where that rule started last year.

And I feel the other 7 are right behind. I would HATE to trade an Ertz/Eifert and then see the position with flex available the next year, now with the cupboard half as full as it was.

Anyway, just a thought. Carry on.
 
As an Ertz owner in dynasty, trade offers seem to be pouring in the last few weeks. Dudes stock is on the rise big time.

Last offer;

T. Wright

1.04

For

Ertz

1.07

 
gchip said:
Terpman22 said:
jurb26 said:
Terpman22 said:
LOL@Tim Wright offers.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it was quickly declined.
Click to expand...
I don't see the guy staying at the position.
Click to expand...
If Brandon Myers is his only competition, he might not be in great danger.
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I don't buy it. Best case scenario is he just had his best season as a pro and won't duplicate it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him out of the leagues soon, having a baby with Jessica Simpson.

 
KellysHeroes said:
#1 Graham

#2 Juluis

#3 Gronk (injury concerns, I think I might even pass at 3)

#4 Cameron

#5 Davis (would take Cameron over Davis due to age only)

#6 Olsen #7 Rudolph #8 Witten #9 Bennett #10 Ertz

#11 Eifert (going to be blocked by Gresham for 1 more yr but worth the hold; would t)

#12 Green #13 Flenner #14 Reed

Gets pretty murky here

#15 Cook #16 D Allen #17 Walker (late bloom last yr) #18 Pitta ( a guy we just keep waiting for) #19 Miller (usually finishes top 15) #20 Kelco #21 G Graham #22 Griffin #23 Gates #24 Daniels #25 Clay (was lasy yr a fluke, i think so) #26 Wright
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Feels pretty murky to me after Graham and Gronk, to tell you the truth. I think Julius Thomas will stay high as long as Peyton is there.

I like Ertz's situation with Chip and looks to be a possible breakout in 2014. I'm a bit sad for J.Casey, but whatevs.

V.Davis will lose looks with Crabtree back, but is a safe-ish top 10 option. Olsen could be also, esp with the dirth of WR in CAR.

Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay (MIA), and Rudolph are guys who could sneak into the top 10. I'd consider them as my TE2 behind a higher upside guy. Clay was sneaky-consistent in 2013.

Eifert/Gresham, Pettigrew/Fauria, Fleener/D.Allen...feel like most of these have top 10 potential, but their situations are muddy. If injury occurs to their counterpart, think they can be top 10. In those pairs, I'd prefer Eifert, Pettigrew, D.Allen and actually think D.Allen could make a push for top 10 TE even with Fleener present, since it appears Fleener didn't grab that job in 2013. I think Allen will be on the field alot (and like his talent).

Jordans: Cameron and Reed need to do more than 1/2 a season or a few un-injury prone games to make me feel comfortable. Take that with a grain of salt, since they are both on my Dynasty team and I'm a bit jaded since mid-2013.

Witten, Pitta...they feel like Gonzo/Gates. They are good until they aren't good. But they could drop off anytime. I'd take either as my TE1, then grab a super high upside guy.

Everyone else is a guess...but I like the upside of guys like Escobar, Tyler Thompson, L. Green.

I'm watching the NYG and HOU TE situation since there's been value there in the past. SEA TE might be a winner (Luke Wilsson?) if they don't get a big-bodied WR to replace Sidney Rice.

Ebron is really the only TE I am watching from the draft so far, but haven't really done any homework on that yet.

 
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Terpman22 said:
gchip said:
Terpman22 said:
jurb26 said:
Terpman22 said:
LOL@Tim Wright offers.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it was quickly declined.
Click to expand...
I don't see the guy staying at the position.
Click to expand...
If Brandon Myers is his only competition, he might not be in great danger.
Click to expand...
I don't buy it. Best case scenario is he just had his best season as a pro and won't duplicate it. I wouldn't be surprised to see him out of the leagues soon, having a baby with Jessica Simpson.
Click to expand...
I don't love Wright at all, but it seems pretty foolish to rule out any chance at ever topping his rookie #s. The fact that he can't block at all isn't really a negative for FF -- he's a WR with TE eligibility (as of now). If they continue to use him as a move player, he'll carry FF value -- he absolutely is an athletic mismatch for a lot of the coverages that TEs typically see.

Obviously, if he gets re-designated as a WR, he immediately becomes worthless, but that hasn't happened yet AFAIK.

 
Looking at some of the rankings posted, I like Clay and D. allen more than most. I think Allen will immediately establish himself now that he is healthy and I don't think clay was a fluke at all. I think he is just a representative of this new type of TE that is flying under radars because the Dolphins were not that good and Clay kind of came from nowhere.

I don't know about Ertz. People can make the case for him being really good and I can buy it and people can make the case for him not ascending and I can see that too. It seems to be a very situational thing but it should be evident early which way it will go. So, if you believe in him and want him, now is the time to do it because if he comes out and post 5/60/1 or something in that first game, the price is high.

 
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