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Illegal immigration from Mexico is receding (1 Viewer)

timschochet

Footballguy
http://www.pewhispan...d-perhaps-less/

Among the report's key findings:

[*]In the five-year period from 2005 to 2010, about 1.4 million Mexicans immigrated to the United States and about 1.4 million Mexican immigrants and their U.S.-born children moved from the United States to Mexico.

[*]In the five-year period a decade earlier (1995 to 2000), about 3 million Mexicans had immigrated to the U.S. and fewer than 700,000 Mexicans and their U.S. born-children had moved from the U.S. to Mexico.

[*]This sharp downward trend in net migration has led to the first significant decrease in at least two decades in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants living in the U.S.—to 6.1 million in 2011, down from a peak of nearly 7 million in 2007. Over the same period the number of authorized Mexican immigrants rose modestly, from 5.6 million in 2007 to 5.8 million in 2011.

[*]Mexicans now comprise about 58% of the unauthorized immigrants living in the United States. They also account for 30% of all U.S. immigrants. The next largest country of origin for U.S. immigrants, China, accounts for just 5% of the nation's stock of nearly 40 million immigrants.

[*]Apprehensions of Mexicans trying to cross the border illegally have plummeted by more than 70% in recent years, from more than 1 million in 2005 to 286,000 in 2011—a likely indication that fewer unauthorized immigrants are trying to cross. This decline has occurred at a time when funding in the U.S. for border enforcement—including more agents and more fencing—has risen sharply.

[*]As apprehensions at the border have declined, deportations of unauthorized Mexican immigrants—some of them picked up at work or after being arrested for other criminal violations—have risen to record levels. In 2010, nearly 400,000 unauthorized immigrants—73% of them Mexicans—were deported by U.S. authorities.

[*]Although most unauthorized Mexican immigrants sent home by U.S. authorities say they plan to try to return, a growing share say they will not try to come back to the U.S. According to a survey by Mexican authorities of repatriated immigrants, 20% of labor migrants in 2010 said they would not return, compared with just 7% in 2005.

[*]Looking back over the entire span of U.S. history, no country has ever sent as many immigrants to this country as Mexico has in the past four decades. However, when measured not in absolute numbers but as a share of the immigrant population at the time, immigration waves from Germany and Ireland in the late 19th century equaled or exceeded the modern wave from Mexico

 
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It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.

 
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come. Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
Sure. There have never been dips or changes before. It's always been a steady stream, and now it's stopped completely. No one is coming across.Come on, timschochet, if you want to have discussions on this topic and expect people to take you seriously, you can't use phrases like "illegal immigration has ended".
 
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It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
:lmao:
 
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
Sure. There have never been dips or changes before. It's always been a steady stream, and now it's stopped completely. No one is coming across.
This isn't a dip. From Michael Barone this morning, a conservative commentator:The Pew analysts hesitate to say so, but their numbers make a strong case that we will never again see the flow of Mexicans into this country that we saw between 1970, when there were fewer than 1 million Mexican-born people in the U.S., and 2007, when there were 12.7 million.

A growing number of commentators from all sides of the political spectrum agrees with him. No wave lasts forever. Even before the 1920s legal restrictions on Eastern European immigration, for example, the numbers of Poles, Jews, and Italians coming to the United States at that time had already waned. There are historical cycles to immigration. This current one is ending.

 
BTW, I don't particularly see this as a good thing. I've always believed that the flow of llegal immigrants from Mexico to this country was a clear sign of the robust nature of our economy, and that if the numbers ever waned, that would be an indication of our decline. Now, the PewHispanic people credit Mexico's rising economy rather than our falling one. I hope this is true.

 
The Mexican economy is getting stronger? Heck, maybe I'll illegally immigrate to Mexico! I wonder how the Mexican government will treat me as an illegal? Plenty of free social services, right?

 
'timschochet said:
'Rich Conway said:
'timschochet said:
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
Sure. There have never been dips or changes before. It's always been a steady stream, and now it's stopped completely. No one is coming across.
This isn't a dip. From Michael Barone this morning, a conservative commentator:The Pew analysts hesitate to say so, but their numbers make a strong case that we will never again see the flow of Mexicans into this country that we saw between 1970, when there were fewer than 1 million Mexican-born people in the U.S., and 2007, when there were 12.7 million.

A growing number of commentators from all sides of the political spectrum agrees with him. No wave lasts forever. Even before the 1920s legal restrictions on Eastern European immigration, for example, the numbers of Poles, Jews, and Italians coming to the United States at that time had already waned. There are historical cycles to immigration. This current one is ending.
I bolded the contradictory statements in your response. If there are cycles, then there is bound to be another uptick at some point, whether from Mexico or elsewhere.Also, not even the experts are claiming that no one is coming across. They're claiming that the net inflow is down. There's a difference.

 
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'timschochet said:
'Rich Conway said:
'timschochet said:
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
Sure. There have never been dips or changes before. It's always been a steady stream, and now it's stopped completely. No one is coming across.
This isn't a dip. From Michael Barone this morning, a conservative commentator:The Pew analysts hesitate to say so, but their numbers make a strong case that we will never again see the flow of Mexicans into this country that we saw between 1970, when there were fewer than 1 million Mexican-born people in the U.S., and 2007, when there were 12.7 million.

A growing number of commentators from all sides of the political spectrum agrees with him. No wave lasts forever. Even before the 1920s legal restrictions on Eastern European immigration, for example, the numbers of Poles, Jews, and Italians coming to the United States at that time had already waned. There are historical cycles to immigration. This current one is ending.
I bolded the contradictory statements in your response. If there are cycles, then there is bound to be another uptick at some point, whether from Mexico or elsewhere.Also, not even the experts are claiming that no one is coming across. They're claiming that the net inflow is down. There's a difference.
Of course there will be more immigration from somewhere eventually. We had better hope so anyhow, since that is who we are as a nation. And of course I never argued that no one is coming across. But if the net inflow is negative over the past 5 years, then I think you should acknowledge that its no longer really a problem. The "problem", if there ever was one, is no more. The question now is what to do with the 12 million or so illegals who are here already. "Your side" has always argued that we need to stop the flow first, and then we can deal with it. The flow has stopped. It's time to give these people legality. There are no more excuses.

 
This is also a golden opportunity for the Republican party. The Democrats have successfully painted the Republicans as anti-Latino based solely on the issue of illegal immigration. Moderate Republicans can now use this information (the net decline of illegal immigration) to argue against the extremists in their party and support a reasonable path to citizenship. They can start by supporting the Dream Act. This action would divide the Latino vote in this country and save the GOP from demographic disaster in the future. Are they wise enough to choose this course?

 
'timschochet said:
'Rich Conway said:
'timschochet said:
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
Sure. There have never been dips or changes before. It's always been a steady stream, and now it's stopped completely. No one is coming across.
This isn't a dip. From Michael Barone this morning, a conservative commentator:The Pew analysts hesitate to say so, but their numbers make a strong case that we will never again see the flow of Mexicans into this country that we saw between 1970, when there were fewer than 1 million Mexican-born people in the U.S., and 2007, when there were 12.7 million.

A growing number of commentators from all sides of the political spectrum agrees with him. No wave lasts forever. Even before the 1920s legal restrictions on Eastern European immigration, for example, the numbers of Poles, Jews, and Italians coming to the United States at that time had already waned. There are historical cycles to immigration. This current one is ending.
I bolded the contradictory statements in your response. If there are cycles, then there is bound to be another uptick at some point, whether from Mexico or elsewhere.Also, not even the experts are claiming that no one is coming across. They're claiming that the net inflow is down. There's a difference.
Of course there will be more immigration from somewhere eventually. We had better hope so anyhow, since that is who we are as a nation. And of course I never argued that no one is coming across. But if the net inflow is negative over the past 5 years, then I think you should acknowledge that its no longer really a problem. The "problem", if there ever was one, is no more. The question now is what to do with the 12 million or so illegals who are here already. "Your side" has always argued that we need to stop the flow first, and then we can deal with it. The flow has stopped. It's time to give these people legality. There are no more excuses.
"My side", meaning me, hasn't argued that at all. I've advocated a path to legality on these very forums, but only combined with massive penalties on employers who hire illegals.But to say that the flow has stopped is just wrong. The net flow has stopped temporarily, which is a far different statement. In addition, if the reason the net flow has slowed or stopped is because of economic factors such as crappy US economy or improved Mexican economy, that says nothing about the problem of lax security, as one or both of those economic factors could reverse themselves.

 
They heard that Timmy was going to have a "Great Illegal Immigration Draft", and they were afraid their name would show up.

 
'Apple Jack said:
'timschochet said:
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
:lmao:
Yeah.Ridiculous statement.

 
Of that 1.4m Pew says anywhere from 5-35% were because of deportation:

Of the 1.4 million Mexican immigrants and their children who

returned to Mexico from the U.S. between 2005 and 2010, the Pew

Hispanic Center estimates that anywhere from 5% to 35% were sent

back by U.S. authorities at some point during that five-year period

and remained in Mexico as of 2010. The other 65% to 95%

returned to Mexico voluntarily.

This suggests that border enforcement and harsher policies aimed at illegals has played a small to pivotal role in this success. The wide range indicates a lack of certainty surrounding the numbers.

 
"Illegal immigration from Mexico has stopped"

:no:
Agreed, the title is misleading. I believe so long as corruption is so rampant in Mexico and then you have the drug war to contend with, there will always be a desire to move the US for a higher quality of life. What's interesting is I just looked up the crime index in Mexico compared to U.S., here are the results (per 100k population):
Code:
		Mexico	U.S.A.Total Crimes:	1504	4119Murder:		13.0	5.6Agg Assault:	186.7	310.1Rape:		14.3	33.0Theft:		112.5	2446Auto Theft:	139.9	432.1Robbery:	146.6	145.9
Nearly 3x as many total crimes in the US, but almost a third fewer murders. I think the affluence of America is why we see much higher theft numbers. Live in Mexico and you are more likely to get murdered, move to US and you are more likely to get beat up, get your car stolen or raped. :unsure:
 
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'Apple Jack said:
'timschochet said:
It's ended. There will still be some illegal immigration, but not at anything close to previous levels ever again. The Mexican economy is getting stronger, and people have less reason to come.

Many of those who have opposed amnesty and/or a path to citizenship in the past have argued, "Let's get the border under control first, THEN we'll deal with it." The border is as under control as it's ever going to be. Now's the time to deal with it.
:lmao:
'timschochet said:
I wish I could laugh the way you are doing. I just find it pathetic.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.

 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
What is the substance you want to discuss? Net illegal immigration is down? I wouldn't know personally, but if the experts say so, I'll believe them. That net illegal immigration is currently down should change my policy preferences? Seems kind of silly.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Even if all is true, it doesn't make it not an issue of concern.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
What is the substance you want to discuss? Net illegal immigration is down? I wouldn't know personally, but if the experts say so, I'll believe them. That net illegal immigration is currently down should change my policy preferences? Seems kind of silly.
Not your policy preferences- I was incorrect to lump you in with how most conservatives tend to feel about this issue, and I apologize for that. But the policy preferences of the majority of conservatives, yes. As people like Michael Barone point out, if net illegal immigration is no longer a concern, then we can now have a serious conversation about what do with the 12 million people who are already here.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Even if all is true, it doesn't make it not an issue of concern.
It's an issue of concern in many ways. For example, can we now stop all this silly talk about a fence? It's not necessary.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Even if all is true, it doesn't make it not an issue of concern.
It's an issue of concern in many ways. For example, can we now stop all this silly talk about a fence? It's not necessary.
So which is it?
 
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Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Even if all is true, it doesn't make it not an issue of concern.
It's an issue of concern in many ways. For example, can we now stop all this silly talk about a fence? It's not necessary.
Sorry, I was confused by your answer. I thought you were saying...nevermind, I'll only get more confused. My own fault.What I meant is that the flow of illegal immigration into the United States should no longer be an issue of concern. You know, all the rhetoric we've heard over the years by nativists like Pat Buchanan about the "invasion" of our borders, how our society is being taken over by Mexico- that kind of crap.

There ARE issues of concern here, but they are in the opposite direction.

 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
What is the substance you want to discuss? Net illegal immigration is down? I wouldn't know personally, but if the experts say so, I'll believe them. That net illegal immigration is currently down should change my policy preferences? Seems kind of silly.
Not your policy preferences- I was incorrect to lump you in with how most conservatives tend to feel about this issue, and I apologize for that. But the policy preferences of the majority of conservatives, yes. As people like Michael Barone point out, if net illegal immigration is no longer a concern, then we can now have a serious conversation about what do with the 12 million people who are already here.
The same points apply.1. Whether net illegal immigration is a concern at this point in time isn't necessarily reflective on whether it will be a concern at a future point in time.2. Apparently, the cause of net illegal immigration being down is economic factors that could change in the future rather than that the border has been "secured".If the conservative argument is that we shouldn't work on the issue of the illegals currently here until the borders are secure, nothing about the present situation changes the validity of that argument. It may still be a bad argument/policy preference, but not because net illegal immigration has slowed.Personally, I don't think securing the border is the best way to combat illegal immigration (although I think we should work on securing the border for other reasons). I think cutting off benefits to illegals and heavily fining employers of illegals will be a much better method.
 
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Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
:lmao:
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
:lmao:
:lmao:
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
That's just as bad.If this information is true, I think it is a good time to redouble efforts to stop it completely. It's easier to stop something that has declined to a manageable level than something that is completely out of control.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Even if all is true, it doesn't make it not an issue of concern.
It's an issue of concern in many ways. For example, can we now stop all this silly talk about a fence? It's not necessary.
The very research you quote say that up to 35% (490k) of the immigrants that returned to Mexico did so because there were forced to in one way or another by US authorities.Add that to the correlation between the timing of the decline and the increase in efforts to combat illegal immigration, and you have at least a case that we should be doing more to combat illegal immigration, not less.IOW I don't think the research shows what you want it to.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
:lmao:
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
:lmao:
:lmao:
:lmao: Well done. Doesn't change my overall point, though.
 
Since you guys seem to want to rip me for my choice of words rather than discuss the substance of the issue, I have changed them. When I wrote "it's ended", what I meant is that illegal immigration is no longer an issue of concern, IMO, if the net numbers are actually down over the last 5-7 years.
Good news everyone! Death is no longer a concern. There's only 2.4million deaths in the US each year, while there are 4.1mil births.
:lmao:
:lmao:
:lmao: Well done. Doesn't change my overall point, though.
Which is what again? That those who wish to crack down on illegal immigration should give up their quest because you disagree with them?
 
Tim seriously how can you look at this research and say it is time to stop worrying about illegal immigration? The numbers show that it is the worrying about it that created the numbers you reference.

 

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