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Was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake? (1 Viewer)

SameSongNDance

SameSongNDance

Footballguy
A lot of people hypothesized that the lockout, amongst other variables, propelled yardage totals last year. In the same vein, they also hypothesized the gap between the elite and "the rest of of the league" would close due to this fact. Now, I want to preface this by saying this is not an overreaction thread. I'm merely going to be posting Week 1 yardage totals from 2011 and 2012, compare them, then ask a question.

The average YPG from Week 1 of 2011 was 253.5. The average YPG from Week 1 of 2012 is 256.75. The standard deviation however, is what I'm interested in. Math is not my strong suit, so if possible I'd really appreciate if someone could help me with this this. Regardless, from a quick glance over the #'s from each year, the gap did seemingly close.

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation (2007-2012)

*4PT per passing TD

*1PT per 25 passing yards

*-1PT per INT

2007 QB Sats

Total #'s = 12

Mean (Average) = 18.1 PPG

Standard Deviation = 2.66 PPG

Variance = 7.08

Coefficient of Variation = 14.69%



2008 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 17.56 PPG

Standard Deviation = 1.3 PPG

Variance = 1.69

Coefficient of Variation = 7.4%

2009 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 18.56 PPG

Standard Deviation = 1.53 PPG

Variance = 2.34

Coefficient of Variation = 8.24%

2010 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 19.04 PPG

Standard Deviation = 2.67 PPG

Variance = 7.12

Coefficient of Variation = 14.02%



2011 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 20.73 PPG

Standard Deviation = 3.54 PPG

Variance = 12.56

Coefficient of Variation = 17.07%

2012 QB Stats (up until week 4)

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 21.28 PPG

Standard Deviation = 2.60 PPG

Variance = 6.76

Coefficient of Variation = 12.22 %

*6PT per passing TD

*1PT per 20 passing yards

*-1Pt per INT

2007 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 25.53 PPG

Standard Deviation = 3.58 PPG

Variance = 12.78

Coefficient of Variation = 14.02%

2008 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 24.33

Standard Deviation = 2.18 PPG

Variance = 4.70

Coefficient of Variation = 8.96%



2009 QB Stats

Total Numbers = 12

Mean (Average) = 25.59 PPG

Standard Deviation = 1.93 PPG

Variance = 3.74

Coefficient of Variation = 7.54%

2010 QB Stats

Total Number = 12

Mean (Average) = 26.16 PPG

Standard Deviation = 2.64 PPG

Variance = 6.96

Coefficient of Variation = 10.09%

2011 QB Stats

Total Number = 12

Mean (Average) = 28.43 PPG

Standard Deviation = 4.66 PPG

Variance = 21.70

Coefficient of Variation = 16.39%

2012 QB Stats (up until Week 4)

Total Number = 12

Mean (Average) = 29.44 PPG

Standard Deviation = 2.67 PPG

Variance = 7.14

Coefficient of Variation = 9.07%

If this trend does continue, does it make it so there wasn't any real value in drafting a QB in the first round? Would it have been better to wait until the later rounds?

 
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THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.

 
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
 
'SameSongNDance said:
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
Click to expand...
Predicated on them replicating last year's SEPARATION, which is what propelled them up the draft boards. So the answer to your question after week one is yes it was a mistake.But one week does not a season make, as you point out.
 
Depends on the scoring format. In my league, an elite QB will score 30-50% of the total points for the week. It is too important of a position to gamble on. I would would draft a QBBC later for leagues that award 4 points per passing TD.

 
'utche96 said:
Depends on the scoring format. In my league, an elite QB will score 30-50% of the total points for the week. It is too important of a position to gamble on. I would would draft a QBBC later for leagues that award 4 points per passing TD.
Click to expand...
I would have to include the TD totals (I will in a second), but I'm betting the gap between QB1 and QB12 from this year's week 1 performances is much smaller than last years, regardless of format.
 
'OrangeCurtain said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
Click to expand...
Predicated on them replicating last year's SEPARATION, which is what propelled them up the draft boards. So the answer to your question after week one is yes it was a mistake.But one week does not a season make, as you point out.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Yes, it's the difference between the "elite" QB's and the QB's you can get much later/cheaper that matters, not how many fantasy points the QB position as a whole scores. Even if QB's scored 70% of the points in a league, if QB1 scores only 10 points more than QB12, while RB1 scores 100 points more than RB12, drafting a QB in the first round, or spending huge $ in an auction, was a mistake if this difference between the "elite" QB's and the the cheaper ones stays small. It's particularly true if the "elite" QB group rotates, with someone like RG3 outscoring someone like Brady, meaning a late/cheap QB would be more valuable than a first rounder. "Elite" QB's at the beginning of the season may not be "elite" at the end of the season (same applies to other positions).Given the scoring in week 1, a team that waited to get Ryan or Peyton, or even RG3 or Cutler, and used early picks to load up on stud RB's and/or better talent at other positions, would be in a much better position than someone who drafted Brady in the first round and was weaker at other positions. But we'll see what happens the rest of the season...
 
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'Ahmad Rashad said:
'OrangeCurtain said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
Click to expand...
Predicated on them replicating last year's SEPARATION, which is what propelled them up the draft boards. So the answer to your question after week one is yes it was a mistake.But one week does not a season make, as you point out.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Yes, it's the difference between the "elite" QB's and the QB's you can get much later/cheaper that matters, not how many fantasy points the QB position as a whole scores. Even if QB's scored 70% of the points in a league, if QB1 scores only 10 points more than QB12, while RB1 scores 100 points more than RB12, drafting a QB in the first round, or spending huge $ in an auction, was a mistake if this difference between the "elite" QB's and the the cheaper ones stays small. It's particularly true if the "elite" QB group rotates, with someone like RG3 outscoring someone like Brady, meaning a late/cheap QB would be more valuable than a first rounder. "Elite" QB's at the beginning of the season may not be "elite" at the end of the season (same applies to other positions).Given the scoring in week 1, a team that waited to get Ryan or Peyton, or even RG3 or Cutler, and used early picks to load up on stud RB's and/or better talent at other positions, would be in a much better position than someone who drafted Brady in the first round and was weaker at other positions. But we'll see what happens the rest of the season...
Click to expand...
I really hate the "if u drafted rg3 instead" argument since it could go both ways. U could have drafted a Brady or Brees and taken a Spiller or Alfred Morris late.
 
'biggamer3 said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'OrangeCurtain said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
Click to expand...
Predicated on them replicating last year's SEPARATION, which is what propelled them up the draft boards. So the answer to your question after week one is yes it was a mistake.But one week does not a season make, as you point out.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Yes, it's the difference between the "elite" QB's and the QB's you can get much later/cheaper that matters, not how many fantasy points the QB position as a whole scores. Even if QB's scored 70% of the points in a league, if QB1 scores only 10 points more than QB12, while RB1 scores 100 points more than RB12, drafting a QB in the first round, or spending huge $ in an auction, was a mistake if this difference between the "elite" QB's and the the cheaper ones stays small. It's particularly true if the "elite" QB group rotates, with someone like RG3 outscoring someone like Brady, meaning a late/cheap QB would be more valuable than a first rounder. "Elite" QB's at the beginning of the season may not be "elite" at the end of the season (same applies to other positions).Given the scoring in week 1, a team that waited to get Ryan or Peyton, or even RG3 or Cutler, and used early picks to load up on stud RB's and/or better talent at other positions, would be in a much better position than someone who drafted Brady in the first round and was weaker at other positions. But we'll see what happens the rest of the season...
Click to expand...
I really hate the "if u drafted rg3 instead" argument since it could go both ways. U could have drafted a Brady or Brees and taken a Spiller or Alfred Morris late.
Click to expand...
:yes: Could have also drafted Chris Johnson in the 1st which would negate any benefit of getting the right stud QB later. or based on one week, Calvin Johnson (#20 WR right now) Too many could-haves right now.
 
Could be, I just don't think we will see the same passing numbers as last year. A lot of teams that drafted RG3 late this year could end up winning the championship.

 
'biggamer3 said:
'Ahmad Rashad said:
'OrangeCurtain said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'Goat Herders said:
THe trend means nothing. All that matters is the relative performance among qbs and then the relative performance among players at other positions and then the comparison between the groups. High passing totals or low passing totals in and of themselves mean very little.
Click to expand...
Understood, that would be a bit of work. However, weren't the ordinal ADP's of the "elite" QBs predicated on them replicating last years numbers?
Click to expand...
Predicated on them replicating last year's SEPARATION, which is what propelled them up the draft boards. So the answer to your question after week one is yes it was a mistake.But one week does not a season make, as you point out.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Yes, it's the difference between the "elite" QB's and the QB's you can get much later/cheaper that matters, not how many fantasy points the QB position as a whole scores. Even if QB's scored 70% of the points in a league, if QB1 scores only 10 points more than QB12, while RB1 scores 100 points more than RB12, drafting a QB in the first round, or spending huge $ in an auction, was a mistake if this difference between the "elite" QB's and the the cheaper ones stays small. It's particularly true if the "elite" QB group rotates, with someone like RG3 outscoring someone like Brady, meaning a late/cheap QB would be more valuable than a first rounder. "Elite" QB's at the beginning of the season may not be "elite" at the end of the season (same applies to other positions).Given the scoring in week 1, a team that waited to get Ryan or Peyton, or even RG3 or Cutler, and used early picks to load up on stud RB's and/or better talent at other positions, would be in a much better position than someone who drafted Brady in the first round and was weaker at other positions. But we'll see what happens the rest of the season...
Click to expand...
I really hate the "if u drafted rg3 instead" argument since it could go both ways. U could have drafted a Brady or Brees and taken a Spiller or Alfred Morris late.
Click to expand...
Of course, but the RG3 drafter also could have taken Spiller late (I did). In any case, it's a big advantage to the RG3 drafter if he gets a QB as good as a round 1 QB much later. Obviously, teams can draft an RB as good as a round 1 RB much later, too, and that's also a big advantage, but that's a separate subject and doesn't nullify this one.
 
I'm all for discussion on stuff like this but isn't this topic either a tad late or way too early?

There are lots of preseason threads on this and multiple perspectives on where to take a QB were hashed over pretty extensively.

 
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
 
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately some of us don't have the ability to look into the future and know what the final rankings will look like.
 
'ponchsox said:
Could be, I just don't think we will see the same passing numbers as last year. A lot of teams that drafted RG3 late this year could end up winning the championship.
Click to expand...
:shrug: this is true for many players every year. Sproles or Cam would have been huge last year.
 
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
I think it has changed though.Just look at the gulf between the top QB's and everyone last season. In my 6 pt ALL TD league, Dree Brees put up 513 points last season. You're not getting anywhere close to that production from the RB1 let alone RB12. I just don't think it is a good decision to let an elite QB pass by in a QB friendly league. When it comes down to facing one of the teams with Brady, Brees, or Rodgers, they have an instant advantage. Their Stud QB has the chance to outscore your mediocre QB 11 by 25+ points. That is a significant amount.
 
I started a thread makin this exact point a few days ago. Good luck. FWIW I agree with you though I think it's an observation worth paying attn to.

 
I think the QBs and where they were taken are fine and I think some of the guys in the earlier posts did a great job explaining WHY that is.

I think the bigger MISTAKE this year, when we look back, is going to be people taking RBs too high and I know, that sounds like blasphemy. But outside the big three and then some guys that you know have questions but are otherwise solid locks (DMAC and Forte types), I think when you look through the first few rounds and you see how high some of these Chris Johnsons and Trent richardsons and even Gore and Turned (relative to the options there at the time), we are going to see we should have went WR or TE in that area.

 
'Rick James said:
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately some of us don't have the ability to look into the future and know what the final rankings will look like.
Click to expand...
All that you have to go on for this year are projections, whether they are your own, FBG or otherwise. Historical data gives you the guideline and strategy. Accurate projections with a tried and true gameplan equals success, but we all know that.In a 12 team league with only 15 man rosters...you'd think the WW would be ripe. Not the case, there isn't a single RB that I would roster with even 18-20 man teams. There are a handful of QBs though that you could plug in if needed. When bye weeks and injuries settle in, there are going to be some teams destroyed by lack of depth/talent at RB.
 
'Shutout said:
I think the QBs and where they were taken are fine and I think some of the guys in the earlier posts did a great job explaining WHY that is.I think the bigger MISTAKE this year, when we look back, is going to be people taking RBs too high and I know, that sounds like blasphemy. But outside the big three and then some guys that you know have questions but are otherwise solid locks (DMAC and Forte types), I think when you look through the first few rounds and you see how high some of these Chris Johnsons and Trent richardsons and even Gore and Turned (relative to the options there at the time), we are going to see we should have went WR or TE in that area.
Click to expand...
Gore looked pretty solid on Sunday for a mid-4th round pick...
 
To everyone saying it's too early and etc., I'm fully aware, I stated it several times, this is just an observational thread. I'll be posting the yardage totals from each weekly so we can compare. If weekly averages are the same yet the variance is clearly much larger than I think it's worth talking about. If you're just going to post "OMG OVERREACTION!" and contribute nothing else, please don't post in the thread, even if you are giving it a bump. :thumbup:

 
'ponchsox said:
Could be, I just don't think we will see the same passing numbers as last year. A lot of teams that drafted RG3 late this year could end up winning the championship.
Click to expand...
Chad Henne Had 416 yards passing, 59 yards rushing, and 3 total TDs in week 1 last year.
 
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say always. I've gone RB heavy getting great backs only to lose still because my QB wasn't stellar. I've also won a league where my RBs were mediocre but I went on a whim and took Aaron Rodgers when he fell in my lap in the first round and and he propelled my team to a title.There's so much information available now. We almost have, to use an economics term, "perfect information." Because so much information is so readily available, owners seeking value are having to make their moves earlier. In competitive, sharky leagues, nearly every owner knows, for instance, that this year Matt Ryan is a QB to target a little later so you can get production like that of Brady, Brees, and Rodgers but at a lower "cost." And human nature being what it is, fingers get itchy and sure enough Ryan goes pretty early himself -- in the late 2nd round in my league. So there was an early run on the best RBs, then WRs, then QBs and Ryan was drafted around where the Big 3 were anyway.

This extends to waivers too. I now have to make moves about 2 weeks ahead of when I think someone will be the player du jour. For example, Jerome Simpson got a lot of coverage in the off and preseason, but has temporarily fallen of the radar while the discussion has moved to Morris, Collie, Ogletree, Hawkins, Hill, etc. So I took Simpson in waivers this week rather than wait until next week when I know waiver wire articles will start to mention him again.

 
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"Was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake? "
Click to expand...
Its always a mistake due to the nature of lineup requirements in standard leagues. FF websites and magazines always try to pimp the next "new" drafting theory.....probably sells magazines or subscriptions.
 
'SameSongNDance said:
To everyone saying it's too early and etc., I'm fully aware, I stated it several times, this is just an observational thread. I'll be posting the yardage totals from each weekly so we can compare. If weekly averages are the same yet the variance is clearly much larger than I think it's worth talking about. If you're just going to post "OMG OVERREACTION!" and contribute nothing else, please don't post in the thread, even if you are giving it a bump. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Every year this forum is bombarded in the first week with overreaction. It's just the way it is, but for some reason it seems much more magnified this season. Maybe more casual fantasy players have taken up the hobby or something, but every thread is ripe with it.Give it a little time. You're stating you simply want to keep a running log in the thread, and that's fine, but titling the thread "was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake?" is misleading. I'm pretty sure you can't make that determination after one week.

 
'ImTheScientist said:
"Was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake? "
Click to expand...
Its always a mistake due to the nature of lineup requirements in standard leagues. FF websites and magazines always try to pimp the next "new" drafting theory.....probably sells magazines or subscriptions.
Click to expand...
Well this is a brand new occurrence. Last year it was Vick who had the honor of being drafted in the first round. Before that? QBs would never even sniff such a high draft position.
 
'Grahamburn said:
'SameSongNDance said:
To everyone saying it's too early and etc., I'm fully aware, I stated it several times, this is just an observational thread. I'll be posting the yardage totals from each weekly so we can compare. If weekly averages are the same yet the variance is clearly much larger than I think it's worth talking about. If you're just going to post "OMG OVERREACTION!" and contribute nothing else, please don't post in the thread, even if you are giving it a bump. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Every year this forum is bombarded in the first week with overreaction. It's just the way it is, but for some reason it seems much more magnified this season. Maybe more casual fantasy players have taken up the hobby or something, but every thread is ripe with it.Give it a little time. You're stating you simply want to keep a running log in the thread, and that's fine, but titling the thread "was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake?" is misleading. I'm pretty sure you can't make that determination after one week.
Click to expand...
It's supposed to catch peoples attention. It's asking a question, not stating a fact. I wouldn't know another way to word it. Maybe I should have titled it, "QBs - Does anyone understand Standard Deviation?".
 
'SameSongNDance said:
'Grahamburn said:
'SameSongNDance said:
To everyone saying it's too early and etc., I'm fully aware, I stated it several times, this is just an observational thread. I'll be posting the yardage totals from each weekly so we can compare. If weekly averages are the same yet the variance is clearly much larger than I think it's worth talking about. If you're just going to post "OMG OVERREACTION!" and contribute nothing else, please don't post in the thread, even if you are giving it a bump. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Every year this forum is bombarded in the first week with overreaction. It's just the way it is, but for some reason it seems much more magnified this season. Maybe more casual fantasy players have taken up the hobby or something, but every thread is ripe with it.Give it a little time. You're stating you simply want to keep a running log in the thread, and that's fine, but titling the thread "was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake?" is misleading. I'm pretty sure you can't make that determination after one week.
Click to expand...
It's supposed to catch peoples attention. It's asking a question, not stating a fact. I wouldn't know another way to word it. Maybe I should have titled it, "QBs - Does anyone understand Standard Deviation?".
Click to expand...
I guess I just don't know what you're trying to determine by comparing one week of random NFL football.
 
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
I agree. I will say that there was a ton of discussion this off-season about that trend changing in that the better QBs will continue to separate themselves. While I do realize, in general, that passing numbers going up collectively negates the separation, but that is based on the assumption that they were going to go up collectively and evenly...which was not the case last year (for the elites).I am absolutely with you on the RB thing, but just explaining why there may have been a change going into 2012 in many minds. Personally, the only way my drafting changed going into 2012 versus prior years is that I jumped a couple of round to take my first QB...in the past, I had a lot of success getting two QBs in the QB11-14 range and riding the hot hand. So far I have had mixed results (Ryan and Cutler worked,Eli did not) and I am aware we are only one week in, but I expect the trend to continue somewhat. In the end, I think the guys who waited will be rewarded unless a Cutler/Ryan-type manages to squeeze into the top 3.
 
'Grahamburn said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'Grahamburn said:
'SameSongNDance said:
To everyone saying it's too early and etc., I'm fully aware, I stated it several times, this is just an observational thread. I'll be posting the yardage totals from each weekly so we can compare. If weekly averages are the same yet the variance is clearly much larger than I think it's worth talking about. If you're just going to post "OMG OVERREACTION!" and contribute nothing else, please don't post in the thread, even if you are giving it a bump. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Every year this forum is bombarded in the first week with overreaction. It's just the way it is, but for some reason it seems much more magnified this season. Maybe more casual fantasy players have taken up the hobby or something, but every thread is ripe with it.Give it a little time. You're stating you simply want to keep a running log in the thread, and that's fine, but titling the thread "was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake?" is misleading. I'm pretty sure you can't make that determination after one week.
Click to expand...
It's supposed to catch peoples attention. It's asking a question, not stating a fact. I wouldn't know another way to word it. Maybe I should have titled it, "QBs - Does anyone understand Standard Deviation?".
Click to expand...
I guess I just don't know what you're trying to determine by comparing one week of random NFL football.
Click to expand...
Random? 1/17th isn't exactly small. This is a very large piece of an extremely small puzzle. If you don't understand what this thread is trying to determine you may want to re-read the OP.
 
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.

Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).

RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.

Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4.

The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.

Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.

 
'SameSongNDance said:
Random? 1/17th isn't exactly small. This is a very large piece of an extremely small puzzle. If you don't understand what this thread is trying to determine you may want to re-read the OP.
Click to expand...
So because the "elite" QBs this year didn't outscore their counterparts in week one in 2012 the same way they did in 2011 then drafting one of them was a mistake? That's quite the logic leap.Offensive success is often predicated on matchups, and then reinforced by talent. For example, I mentioned Chad Henne's week one statline last year. I bet he was quite a hot commodity on the waiver wire for that performance. What we didn't necessarily know at that particular point in time was that every QB who faced the NE Patriot's secondary was likely to have a fantastic fantasy performance.

Henne followed week one up with a 170 yard 1 TD/1 INT performance against Houston in week two.

Yes, random. I think you have the bolded backwards.

 
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4. The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
 
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4. The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
Click to expand...
The part that some people are missing is that the top QBs should again be the top QBs . . . whether that means they put up 5300/45 or 4300/35. IMO, it's very unlikely that the elite QBs will drop off a cliff while average or above average QBs stay the same as they did last year.Last year Week 1 was a total aberration. There will not be weeks with multiple 400 and 500 yard performances very often. Comparing ANY NFL week in any season to Week 1 last year is only going to show how much a fluke last year Week 1 was. Guys like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have already shown that they will consistently outscore other fantasy QBs by a fair amount over a longer period of time (ie, not one week).After the first month of the season, Cam Newton's passing totals dropped off substantially as defenses adjusted. That could happen to RGIII once DCs have film to study and scheme accordingly. As I outlined in other threads, the top drafted QBs predominently had decent weeks . . . they just didn't have 400/5 weeks. Over the course of a season, I see nothing to indicate that they won't continue to do well (and better) than the pack.This year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8249 passing yards and 48 passing TDs on 1124 attempts.Last year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8419 yards and 54 TDs on 1115 attempts.This year after 1 game, there were 789 rushing attempts for 3157 yards and 25 TD.Last year after 1 game, there were 793 rushing attempts for 3401 yards and 21 TD.That tells me it's still a passing league. As I see it, the top guys will still be top guys and all people need to do is wait it out to reap longer term benefits.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'David Yudkin said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4. The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
Click to expand...
The part that some people are missing is that the top QBs should again be the top QBs . . . whether that means they put up 5300/45 or 4300/35. IMO, it's very unlikely that the elite QBs will drop off a cliff while average or above average QBs stay the same as they did last year.Last year Week 1 was a total aberration. There will not be weeks with multiple 400 and 500 yard performances very often. Comparing ANY NFL week in any season to Week 1 last year is only going to show how much a fluke last year Week 1 was. Guys like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have already shown that they will consistently outscore other fantasy QBs by a fair amount over a longer period of time (ie, not one week).After the first month of the season, Cam Newton's passing totals dropped off substantially as defenses adjusted. That could happen to RGIII once DCs have film to study and scheme accordingly. As I outlined in other threads, the top drafted QBs predominently had decent weeks . . . they just didn't have 400/5 weeks. Over the course of a season, I see nothing to indicate that they won't continue to do well (and better) than the pack.This year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8249 passing yards and 48 passing TDs on 1124 attempts.Last year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8419 yards and 54 TDs on 1115 attempts.This year after 1 game, there were 789 rushing attempts for 3157 yards and 25 TD.Last year after 1 game, there were 793 rushing attempts for 3401 yards and 21 TD.That tells me it's still a passing league. As I see it, the top guys will still be top guys and all people need to do is wait it out to reap longer term benefits.
Click to expand...
I never said the top QBs wouldn't perform as they should nor did I say this wasn't a passing league, I'm in agreeance with you there. It's the rest of the pack that I think will close the gap. I think that it truly is a passing league works more so towards my theory than not.
 
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
Last year was an aberration for sure- 5 of the top 10 players in season-ending vbd were QBs. In the 5 years prior, though, there were an average of 2 QBs a year who finished the season in the top 10 of VBD. There are almost always QBs who more than justify a first round draft pick. I have absolutely no problem with anyone who wants to draft a Rogers, Brees, or Brady at the latter half of the first.
 
'smapdi said:
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
I think it has changed though.
Click to expand...
Amen...http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1992/leaders.htm

Passing Yds/Game

1. Dan Marino* · MIA 257.3

2. Warren Moon* · HOU 229.2

3. Chris Miller · ATL 217.4

4. Steve Young*+ · SFO 216.6

5. Jim Kelly* · BUF 216.1

6. Troy Aikman* · DAL 215.3

7. Brett Favre* · GNB 215.1

8. Stan Humphries · SDG 209.8

9. Jim Everett · RAM 207.7

10. Bobby Hebert · NOR 205.4

Rushing Yds

1. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 1713

2. Barry Foster*+ · PIT 1690

3. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 1487

4. Barry Sanders* · DET 1352

5. Lorenzo White* · HOU 1226

6. Terry Allen · MIN 1201

7. Reggie Cobb · TAM 1171

8. Harold Green* · CIN 1170

9. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 1141

10. Cleveland Gary · RAM 1125

... and not only has the NFL obviously changed(Cobb/Green/Hampton/Gary would all be lucky to ONLY be in a 2 back RBBC today) but fantasy scoring has changed a great deal over the past 20 years. Almost every league had the QB getting 3pt per TD 20 years ago(compared to 4-6 now) and now almost every league awards at least 0.5 points per reception. Not only is the NFL de-emphasizing a single RB but most fantasy football scoring systems are as well.

 
'BoltBacker said:
'smapdi said:
'cracKer said:
'HurryUpSundays said:
I'm in a unique big money league where QB's get half point per completion. Feeling just fine with taking Brees in the first round!
Click to expand...
Scoring system is irrelevant. Fantasy football hasn't changed much in 20 years, it's always a better to draft RB early and often while waiting on a QB. There will be years when it doesn't pan out, but you're relying on a repeat of record breaking performances...not a safe practice. Throw end of year stats into the Draft Dominator each year for the last decade or two and run mock drafts.
Click to expand...
I think it has changed though.
Click to expand...
Amen...http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1992/leaders.htm

Passing Yds/Game

1. Dan Marino* · MIA 257.3

2. Warren Moon* · HOU 229.2

3. Chris Miller · ATL 217.4

4. Steve Young*+ · SFO 216.6

5. Jim Kelly* · BUF 216.1

6. Troy Aikman* · DAL 215.3

7. Brett Favre* · GNB 215.1

8. Stan Humphries · SDG 209.8

9. Jim Everett · RAM 207.7

10. Bobby Hebert · NOR 205.4

Rushing Yds

1. Emmitt Smith*+ · DAL 1713

2. Barry Foster*+ · PIT 1690

3. Thurman Thomas* · BUF 1487

4. Barry Sanders* · DET 1352

5. Lorenzo White* · HOU 1226

6. Terry Allen · MIN 1201

7. Reggie Cobb · TAM 1171

8. Harold Green* · CIN 1170

9. Rodney Hampton* · NYG 1141

10. Cleveland Gary · RAM 1125

... and not only has the NFL obviously changed(Cobb/Green/Hampton/Gary would all be lucky to ONLY be in a 2 back RBBC today) but fantasy scoring has changed a great deal over the past 20 years. Almost every league had the QB getting 3pt per TD 20 years ago(compared to 4-6 now) and now almost every league awards at least 0.5 points per reception. Not only is the NFL de-emphasizing a single RB but most fantasy football scoring systems are as well.
Click to expand...
PPR de-emphasizes QBs more so than RBs. In today's passing game, there are very few RBs who can't catch out of the backfield. PPR is primarily meant to make WRs/TEs more relevant while bringing QBs slightly back down to earth. I don't see how .5 PPR hurts anyone aside from Mark Ingram (there's of course a couple more, but not many).I'm still confused as to how the argument that this is a passing league, one that I fully accept, is being used to debunk the theory that the top QBs have been overvalued. Everyone is ignoring the fact that every QB could possibly be positively affected by the leagues affinity for passing. We've never seen this many competent QBs fantasy wise, ever.

 
'David Yudkin said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.

Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).

RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.

Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4.

The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.

Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
Click to expand...
The part that some people are missing is that the top QBs should again be the top QBs . . . whether that means they put up 5300/45 or 4300/35. IMO, it's very unlikely that the elite QBs will drop off a cliff while average or above average QBs stay the same as they did last year.Last year Week 1 was a total aberration. There will not be weeks with multiple 400 and 500 yard performances very often. Comparing ANY NFL week in any season to Week 1 last year is only going to show how much a fluke last year Week 1 was. Guys like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have already shown that they will consistently outscore other fantasy QBs by a fair amount over a longer period of time (ie, not one week).

After the first month of the season, Cam Newton's passing totals dropped off substantially as defenses adjusted. That could happen to RGIII once DCs have film to study and scheme accordingly. As I outlined in other threads, the top drafted QBs predominently had decent weeks . . . they just didn't have 400/5 weeks. Over the course of a season, I see nothing to indicate that they won't continue to do well (and better) than the pack.

This year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8249 passing yards and 48 passing TDs on 1124 attempts.

Last year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8419 yards and 54 TDs on 1115 attempts.

This year after 1 game, there were 789 rushing attempts for 3157 yards and 25 TD.

Last year after 1 game, there were 793 rushing attempts for 3401 yards and 21 TD.

That tells me it's still a passing league. As I see it, the top guys will still be top guys and all people need to do is wait it out to reap longer term benefits.
Click to expand...
Last year week 1 wasn't a total aberration, actually. In week 2 Newton and Brady threw for 400+ once again, while Romo and Kitna combined for 432.Cam Netwon - 432

DAL QBs - 432

Tom Brady - 423

The stats end up looking very similar to week 1.

 
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'SameSongNDance said:
I'm still confused as to how the argument that this is a passing league, one that I fully accept, is being used to debunk the theory that the top QBs have been overvalued. Everyone is ignoring the fact that every QB could possibly be positively affected by the leagues affinity for passing. We've never seen this many competent QBs fantasy wise, ever.
Click to expand...
EVERY year people say there are more capable fantasy QBs than ever . . . but the fact remains the bottom tier of QB1s have been fairly consistent wise and the baseline for the QB12 (using a 12 team league as an example) hasn't changed all that much.Here were the fantasy points scored totals for the #12 QB from the past 10 years (most recent backwards): 288, 294, 294, 263, 271, 241, 264, 270, 274, 271. Basically, with the exception of one season at 241, the baseline has risen roughly 20 points.

If we look at the top scoring QBs in that time, the #1 QB (again going backwards) has scored: 490, 376, 418, 389, 496, 384, 338, 461, 343, 378. It's harder to pin point what the top QB will score, but the first 5 years the average was 381 vs. the average in the past 5 years has been 434. That works out to an averqge increas of 50 points.

If we look at the relative value difference in those seasons, 202, 82, 124, 126, 225, 143, 74, 191, 69, 107. The only season of the more reason ones where the Top 12 QBs were compressed was 2010. IMO, usually the more passing production there is, the more the top QBs will benefit . . . UNLESS there is a team that is so crazy passing wise when there are a ton of heavy running teams (which in today's NFL doesn't really happen as much).

Which leads me to my next point . . . that in the past few years the guys at the top have consistently been Rodgers, Brady, and Brees (and at least a couple years ago Manning). When the elite perfromers have shown that they have a ppg scoring advantage and are consistent, that to me is a recipe for success and players you want on your team.

Maybe there is a new crop of consistent performers on the horizon in Ryan, Newton, and Stafford. Maybe guys like Vick and Romo can stay healthy and productive for an entire season. Maybe RGIII or Flacco can keep it up. But for years by the end of the season the year end rankings have not shown that there will be a dozen high scoring guys week in and week out for all 16 games . . . even if in Week 2 it looks like there are a lot of decent QB options.

 
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.

Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).

RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.

Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4.

The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.

Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
Click to expand...
The part that some people are missing is that the top QBs should again be the top QBs . . . whether that means they put up 5300/45 or 4300/35. IMO, it's very unlikely that the elite QBs will drop off a cliff while average or above average QBs stay the same as they did last year.Last year Week 1 was a total aberration. There will not be weeks with multiple 400 and 500 yard performances very often. Comparing ANY NFL week in any season to Week 1 last year is only going to show how much a fluke last year Week 1 was. Guys like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have already shown that they will consistently outscore other fantasy QBs by a fair amount over a longer period of time (ie, not one week).

After the first month of the season, Cam Newton's passing totals dropped off substantially as defenses adjusted. That could happen to RGIII once DCs have film to study and scheme accordingly. As I outlined in other threads, the top drafted QBs predominently had decent weeks . . . they just didn't have 400/5 weeks. Over the course of a season, I see nothing to indicate that they won't continue to do well (and better) than the pack.

This year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8249 passing yards and 48 passing TDs on 1124 attempts.

Last year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8419 yards and 54 TDs on 1115 attempts.

This year after 1 game, there were 789 rushing attempts for 3157 yards and 25 TD.

Last year after 1 game, there were 793 rushing attempts for 3401 yards and 21 TD.

That tells me it's still a passing league. As I see it, the top guys will still be top guys and all people need to do is wait it out to reap longer term benefits.
Click to expand...
Last year week 1 wasn't a total aberration, actually. In week 2 Newton and Brady threw for 400+ once again, while Romo and Kitna combined for 432.Cam Netwon - 432

DAL QBs - 432

Tom Brady - 423

The stats end up looking very similar to week 1.
Click to expand...
The beginning of the season last year was very odd for a lot of reason, and those big passing performances happened less frequently as the season wore on.# of 400+ yard passers by week:

1 4

2 2

3 0

4 2

5 2

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

10 0

11 0

12 2

13 1

14 1

15 1

16 0

17 3

Week 17 saw 2 guys in one game do it, but there was over a month in mid season when no one hit 400 yards passing. I think part of it stems from there being some REALLY bad secondaries last year, and they were on teams that also were very proficient passing wise on offense (GB, NO, NE, NYG, etc.).

 
'David Yudkin said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
'SameSongNDance said:
'David Yudkin said:
Part of the problem I have discussing things like this a week into the season is that isolated, single plays (potnetially) distorted the outcomes. Again, this is theoretical, so bear with me. And yes, I realize you can't undo plays, but the point here is that single plays skewed the results.

Peyton had a 3 yard pass to Thomas that went for a 70+ yard TD. Had Thomas been tackled right away, Manning's numbers could have been 180/1 (and thus that would take him from a good fantasy play to a not so good fantasy play).

RGIII had almost a 90 yard TD on a similar type play. Take that play away, and he would ptoentially fall to 230/1 and would have gone from a great fantasy day to only a decent one.

Tom Brady had Lloyd wide open for a long TD that didn't pan out and Wes Welker also dropped what would have been a TD. If both of those open receiver catches were made, suddenly Brady could have jumped up to 300/4.

The point being, these types of things even out over the course of a whole season. But they don't even out all in one week. I am pretty confident that Brady will have several weeks where he does throw for 300 yards and games with 4 TDs. He's proven that. 70 or 90 yard plays don't happen very often, and those are hard to predict. Certainly if those big plays DIDN'T happen this past week, things could have worked out where both Manning and RGIII did things to generate more production.

Similarly, Rodgers is not going to face the 49ers every week. Sanchez won't put up the numbers he did this week very often. And I highly doubt Gabbert will have many weeks like he did this past week. Things will generally end up close to normal by the end of the season.
Click to expand...
I agree, and it very well may normalize, but I'm not concerned with who placed where this week. It doesn't make a difference to me if RG3/Sanchez are near the top and Brady/Rivers are near the bottom, I actually am fully expecting that to switch. What I AM concerned with is how far the set of numbers are spread out, or the variance. I hate bringing up the term, because I am #### with math (taking Statistics this semester :thumbdown: ) but hey, maybe this thread will help me out in the long run. If the variance ends up being small, and everyone ends up performing more similarly than last year, then the hypothesis is correct.
Click to expand...
The part that some people are missing is that the top QBs should again be the top QBs . . . whether that means they put up 5300/45 or 4300/35. IMO, it's very unlikely that the elite QBs will drop off a cliff while average or above average QBs stay the same as they did last year.Last year Week 1 was a total aberration. There will not be weeks with multiple 400 and 500 yard performances very often. Comparing ANY NFL week in any season to Week 1 last year is only going to show how much a fluke last year Week 1 was. Guys like Brady, Brees, and Rodgers have already shown that they will consistently outscore other fantasy QBs by a fair amount over a longer period of time (ie, not one week).

After the first month of the season, Cam Newton's passing totals dropped off substantially as defenses adjusted. That could happen to RGIII once DCs have film to study and scheme accordingly. As I outlined in other threads, the top drafted QBs predominently had decent weeks . . . they just didn't have 400/5 weeks. Over the course of a season, I see nothing to indicate that they won't continue to do well (and better) than the pack.

This year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8249 passing yards and 48 passing TDs on 1124 attempts.

Last year after 1 game, the league produced a total of 8419 yards and 54 TDs on 1115 attempts.

This year after 1 game, there were 789 rushing attempts for 3157 yards and 25 TD.

Last year after 1 game, there were 793 rushing attempts for 3401 yards and 21 TD.

That tells me it's still a passing league. As I see it, the top guys will still be top guys and all people need to do is wait it out to reap longer term benefits.
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Last year week 1 wasn't a total aberration, actually. In week 2 Newton and Brady threw for 400+ once again, while Romo and Kitna combined for 432.Cam Netwon - 432

DAL QBs - 432

Tom Brady - 423

The stats end up looking very similar to week 1.
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The beginning of the season last year was very odd for a lot of reason, and those big passing performances happened less frequently as the season wore on.# of 400+ yard passers by week:

1 4

2 2

3 0

4 2

5 2

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

10 0

11 0

12 2

13 1

14 1

15 1

16 0

17 3

Week 17 saw 2 guys in one game do it, but there was over a month in mid season when no one hit 400 yards passing. I think part of it stems from there being some REALLY bad secondaries last year, and they were on teams that also were very proficient passing wise on offense (GB, NO, NE, NYG, etc.).
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Okay, in all honesty do you think measuring passing as a team as opposed to just the QB (see the case of Romo + Kitna) would be a more accurate way to gauge this?Thanks for the numbers up top, so it would seem that the largest disparity between QB1 and QB12 came last year and in 2008 (this is the year Brady threw for 54 TDs correct, no one else came close to his #s). What if these are indeed the outliers? Were this year's ADP for QBs based off of that disparity?

My perception of the QB crop this year may very well be skewed, I just see a lot of talent. I understand I'll have to wait for it to play out.

EDIT: Also, according to deductive reasoning, the disparity between QB1 and QB12 was indeed trending downward from 2008-2010 (225,126,124,82) before shooting up by more than 200% last year. Doesn't this also lead to the conclusion of a possible outlier?

EDIT #2: Also, to be fair, I think the inequality has to be measured by averaging the top 6 vs. the bottom 6. Brady's 54 TD performance skews 2008's #s.

 
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'TarheelBlue said:
'Shutout said:
I think the QBs and where they were taken are fine and I think some of the guys in the earlier posts did a great job explaining WHY that is.I think the bigger MISTAKE this year, when we look back, is going to be people taking RBs too high and I know, that sounds like blasphemy. But outside the big three and then some guys that you know have questions but are otherwise solid locks (DMAC and Forte types), I think when you look through the first few rounds and you see how high some of these Chris Johnsons and Trent richardsons and even Gore and Turned (relative to the options there at the time), we are going to see we should have went WR or TE in that area.
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Gore looked pretty solid on Sunday for a mid-4th round pick...
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At that selection, yes. And for this one week, yes. Like I said, at the end of the year and we look back, I think it will be the RBs, not the QBs, taken highly that will hurt teams more.
 
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