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Ascending Buys and Falling Knives (1 Viewer)

LawFitz

Footballguy
This is the opposite of the buy low / sell high thread. This is to identify those ascending players whose value has risen, but there is still upside to be had this year (redraft) even at their new higher trade purchase values;

Or players whose value is falling and will probably fall further, so better to get what you can now (or conversely, stay away from buy low sirens)...

I'll start, week 1:

Ascending -

Patterson

Cooks

Benjamin

Knives -

Cruz

Stacy

Tate

Who do you see falling into these categories?

 
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This is the opposite of the buy low / sell high thread. This is to identify those ascending players whose value has risen, but there is still upside to be had this year (redraft) even at their new higher trade purchase values;

Or players whose value is falling and will probably fall further, so better to get what you can now (or conversely, stay away from buy low sirens)...

I'll start, week 1:

Ascending -

Patterson

Cooks

Benjamin

Knives -

Cruz

Stacy

Tate

Who do you see falling into these categories?
Patterson will never see the targets to go beyond his current value. Wasn't he already a 4th rounder before the season? Maybe early 4th, late 3rd with that big game?

He has nowhere to go but down. Jennings is a great router runner who is open a lot, has the trust of Cassel, and the team will be in the bottom 10 for pass attempts. He's not a buy at his price. I consider him more of a sell since he's at max value.

 
:goodposting:

Nice idea for a thread. Some people are so obsessed with trying to buy low and sell high that you actually miss out on players that are actually going to end up outperforming their pre-season value. Then you have the players that you should sell while they still have value in another owner's eyes as someone who will bounceback and still live up to pre-season ADP/expectations.

I'd be worried about guys like Doug Martin, Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, the Ravens passing game, Zac Stacy, etc.

 
I don't think there's value in those buys right now, because who's selling? I think you might need to dig deeper. Instead of Cooks, perhaps buy Colston. Look at a guy like Justin Hunter, who had a good week but didn't get the score that put Benjamin over the top.

 
Phenomena said:
He has nowhere to go but down. Jennings is a great router runner who is open a lot, has the trust of Cassel, and the team will be in the bottom 10 for pass attempts.
Yeah, it's a shame all Patterson does is catch the ball.

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Lil Fatty

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
mercurial?

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Fantasy Lazarus... Dead for a while... Had to wait for Jesus... Regained his life for a while but then outside of that story we've never heard abt him again

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Dwayne Bowe

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Dwayne Bowe
Can we turn Fitzgerald into a verb? Like, "I thought for sure Dwayne Bowe was going to carry me into the playoffs, but it turned out he was only Fitzgeralding."

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Dwayne Bowe
Can we turn Fitzgerald into a verb? Like, "I thought for sure Dwayne Bowe was going to carry me into the playoffs, but it turned out he was only Fitzgeralding."
Well, as long as he doesn't Ray Rice he still has value

 
Some confusing responses, but so far:

Buys - Patterson, Cooks, Benjamin, Hunter, Colston, West

Knives - Cruz, Stacy, Tate, Martin, Fitzgerald, Witten, Ravens, DBowe

I agree with all of these, except maybe Witten and the Ravens, depending on Romo and Flacco.

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Um...a yo-yo? A Ridley?

A Marisa Tomei?

 
I like the Buy High principle. Sometimes players are a buy high and they will go even higher.

I think Patterson and Cooks are the two prime examples here.

 
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While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
A slingshot player.

 
Some confusing responses, but so far:

Buys - Patterson, Cooks, Benjamin, Hunter, Colston, West

Knives - Cruz, Stacy, Tate, Martin, Fitzgerald, Witten, Ravens, DBowe

I agree with all of these, except maybe Witten and the Ravens, depending on Romo and Flacco.
I think Patterson would either be a sell high or hold until you seem him more involved in the passing game.

 
these threads confuse me. who would "SELL" Patterson after his performance this past week? Odds are he was drafted in the 4th-5th round...if this person went WR/WR/RB/RB/Patterson, then is WR corps is most likely loaded. Why mess that up?

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Maybe too obscure, but for the Brady Bunch fan set - Molly Webber

 
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these threads confuse me. who would "SELL" Patterson after his performance this past week? Odds are he was drafted in the 4th-5th round...if this person went WR/WR/RB/RB/Patterson, then is WR corps is most likely loaded. Why mess that up?
I think there are a lot of owners out there that would "sell high" on Patterson and take:

Cobb, V Jax or Keenan Allen and if I had one of those players, but not CP84, I would make the trade to get him. For anything lesser, it's an obvious no brainer to go get him, and I bet even that can happen right now in some leagues.

That is called buying high and still getting higher if Patterson becomes a top 5-10 WR (my projection for him in return yardage leagues). It's not too late to get flashy, but it will be soon.

 
these threads confuse me. who would "SELL" Patterson after his performance this past week? Odds are he was drafted in the 4th-5th round...if this person went WR/WR/RB/RB/Patterson, then is WR corps is most likely loaded. Why mess that up?
I don't know - somebody that could use a running back? If Patteson's your WR3 and despite thinking he's going to have a great season you can use him as trade bait for a running back. It's not that confusing.

 
Does Patterson getting one long rushing TD really change his outlook that much? If you drafted him, you assumed that would happen a few times, right? I know it's nice to have it happen in week 1, but nobody was reaching for him because they were psyched about him getting 26 receiving yards a game.

Realistically, what would you pay for Cooks now that you think would actually be accepted? Do you envision him finishing as a top-12 receiver? What sort of RB do you think it would take? On paper, you'd have to hope an 80/TD week 1 guy like Rashad Jennings or Ryan Mathews would get it done, but I don't see many Cooks owners making that deal after having been proven right on him.

 
Nice post LawFitz. A lot of people in here not understanding what you're talking about. I think Harvin is a great one. Lotta hype but its only gonna go higher. Just like google stock.

 
Nice post LawFitz. A lot of people in here not understanding what you're talking about. I think Harvin is a great one. Lotta hype but its only gonna go higher. Just like google stock.
I should've put Harvin on my ascending buys

 
I like the Buy High principle. Sometimes players are a buy high and they will go even higher.

I think Patterson and Cooks are the two prime examples here.
Exactly. If Cooks and Patterson(solid suggestions btw) have similar games again next week they're price.value will go even higher. Ditto with a guy like Fitz if he has another quiet game.

 
I think Ingram deserves a little love. The strong preseason play continued when it counted. He still could/should have had more total plays, but did well with what was given to him. Seeing how several of his dynasty owners passed on Julio or AJG to get him, I'm happy they are seeing some type of fruit (finally)

 
Does Patterson getting one long rushing TD really change his outlook that much? If you drafted him, you assumed that would happen a few times, right? I know it's nice to have it happen in week 1, but nobody was reaching for him because they were psyched about him getting 26 receiving yards a game.

Realistically, what would you pay for Cooks now that you think would actually be accepted? Do you envision him finishing as a top-12 receiver? What sort of RB do you think it would take? On paper, you'd have to hope an 80/TD week 1 guy like Rashad Jennings or Ryan Mathews would get it done, but I don't see many Cooks owners making that deal after having been proven right on him.
Cordarrelle doesn't need to turn into Larry Fitzgerald the route running surgeon to help his fantasy owners.

He is one of the few players involved in the running game, passing game, and return game. A true Offensive Weapon.

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
Dwayne Bowe
Can we turn Fitzgerald into a verb? Like, "I thought for sure Dwayne Bowe was going to carry me into the playoffs, but it turned out he was only Fitzgeralding."
:sadbanana: :lol: he was Fitzgeralding along at a 1-22 clip... Add Fitzy to the Falling knive category... He should be atop the list. :construction: :drive: :sadbanana:

 
Does Patterson getting one long rushing TD really change his outlook that much? If you drafted him, you assumed that would happen a few times, right? I know it's nice to have it happen in week 1, but nobody was reaching for him because they were psyched about him getting 26 receiving yards a game.

Realistically, what would you pay for Cooks now that you think would actually be accepted? Do you envision him finishing as a top-12 receiver? What sort of RB do you think it would take? On paper, you'd have to hope an 80/TD week 1 guy like Rashad Jennings or Ryan Mathews would get it done, but I don't see many Cooks owners making that deal after having been proven right on him.
Cordarrelle doesn't need to turn into Larry Fitzgerald the route running surgeon to help his fantasy owners.

He is one of the few players involved in the running game, passing game, and return game. A true Offensive Weapon.
Right. We're agreeing, but coming at it different ways. Everyone who drafted him did it with that assumption. They're not going to sell now that they've been proven right.

 
It's tough to put guys like Benjamin and Cooks into the buy category because whoever took them likely reached to get them. I know I did. I drafted them with the expectation that they will perform in the realm of a WR2/3.

It's interesting because I drafted Cruz, Benjamin, Cooks on my team in that order. Right now I don't think I would take a straight up Cruz for Cooks offer. You can probably sell the fact that Cooks is a rookie to owners with weaker hands. But I didn't see any signs of rookiedom in Cooks's game.

Benjamin is in a different situation. He will be relevant by virtue of sheer volume and ability. The fact that he found success against a cover 2 defense with his backup QB on the road just jacked his floor up to at least a WR3. Benjamin is more raw than Cooks, but does it matter? The guy seems to come down with any ball thrown in his vicinity and IMO has a higher ceiling than Cooks this year.

If I've got a WR2/3 with potentially excellent upside, I would expect at the very least the same in return. Essentially it would take another "ascending buy" to make me part with mine.

 
Does Patterson getting one long rushing TD really change his outlook that much? If you drafted him, you assumed that would happen a few times, right? I know it's nice to have it happen in week 1, but nobody was reaching for him because they were psyched about him getting 26 receiving yards a game.

Realistically, what would you pay for Cooks now that you think would actually be accepted? Do you envision him finishing as a top-12 receiver? What sort of RB do you think it would take? On paper, you'd have to hope an 80/TD week 1 guy like Rashad Jennings or Ryan Mathews would get it done, but I don't see many Cooks owners making that deal after having been proven right on him.
Cordarrelle doesn't need to turn into Larry Fitzgerald the route running surgeon to help his fantasy owners.

He is one of the few players involved in the running game, passing game, and return game. A true Offensive Weapon.
Right. We're agreeing, but coming at it different ways. Everyone who drafted him did it with that assumption. They're not going to sell now that they've been proven right.
proven right? You may want to check that

 
Terrence West
Crowell

I think they'll both have value with or without Tate. Tate is not a workhorse running back. He was and will always be a #2 back. Whenever he is expected to carry the load, he breaks.

Back to the point.

I like Terrance Williams and Michael Floyd a lot. Moreno will be money again.

 
My ascending buy is Carlos Hyde.

Here's a guy that is on the rise but can actually still be had for cheap because his role this season is as yet to be defined. However reading between the lines I can tell you that he'll have a significant role in the 49ers offense THIS SEASON.

1) They released LaMichael James - This may not seem like a big deal, but the release of James leaves Gore and Hyde as the only RBs on the roster. Whereas before when the niners backfield behind Gore seemed a quagmire of mediocrity, now there is only Hyde. I don't think this is coincidence, the coaches and front office know that they have their guy.

2) Hyde ran exclusively out of the shotgun/read option formation. Whereas Gore only ran out of shotgun 3 times out of 16 attempts. Again I don't think this is coincidence. Hyde has plenty of experience in the read/option from his OSU days whereas Gore has always seemed uncomfortable running from shotgun. This seems largely irrelevant until you factor in the fact that Kaepernick is most dangerous operating out of the read/option shotgun.

3) This is the last year of Gore's contract. Frank Gore is probably my favorite Niner of all time, but like all good things they come to an end. Local beatwriters are already crowning Hyde as the heir apparent, and if the media is thinking it, the coaches likely already know it. The front office may extend Gore beyond this season, but this is Hyde's show next year regardless. He will get the PT necessary to ensure that the "life after Gore" niners have a seasoned vet to handle RB duties by next September.

Last season Gore had 276 carries while the 3 headed monster of Hunter/James/Dixon combined for 118. Speculation before the season began from beatwriters were that Gore will likely get around 200 carries this season. Projecting for a total of 400 combined carries for niner RBs that leaves roughly 185-200 for Hyde which sounds about right to me. The coaching staff has talked about dialing back Gore's workload for years, but IMO they've just never had anyone on the roster capable. TDs will likely also favor Hyde since he appears the favorite to assume Dixon's role of TD vulture.

Gore has amazingly gone from "injury-prone" to one of the ironmen of the NFL. I believe he is currently the leader in active RBs in consecutive games played. Should that streak come to an end, you have an immediate RB1 in Hyde ready to take over. I see a 50/50 split and pure RBBC by midseason in SF provided both guys stay healthy. I can see Hyde having a mini coming out party at home this Sunday Night at home against a TERRIBLE bears run defense so buy while he's still quiet.

 
I like the Ingram and Hyde buy high calls. I traded Locker for Ingram to a team desperate for a QB. The fact that he's on everyone's "sell high" list makes him a potential value. He looked great in preseason, he's playing for a contract, and he looks angry out there.

Hyde just feels like the right guy to target. He's the type of guy who can totally change your team. I'm trying to acquire in all leagues, but I'm afraid I won't be successful.

 
I don't think there's value in those buys right now, because who's selling? I think you might need to dig deeper. Instead of Cooks, perhaps buy Colston. Look at a guy like Justin Hunter, who had a good week but didn't get the score that put Benjamin over the top.
This all day. The concept more than the players but agree on Colston.

 
While we're on the subject of mixed metaphors, I've been trying to come up with a catchy term for a player who performed poorly in week 1, and will most likely continue performing poorly for the next 5 weeks, but will then turn things around in week 7 after all FF owners have dropped him, stringing together 3 amazing games in a row, but will then fall off the face of the Earth again in week 10 after people gain enough confidence to start him. Any ideas?
A slingshot player.
Variably staggered whipsaw.

 
It's tough to put guys like Benjamin and Cooks into the buy category because whoever took them likely reached to get them. I know I did. I drafted them with the expectation that they will perform in the realm of a WR2/3.

It's interesting because I drafted Cruz, Benjamin, Cooks on my team in that order. Right now I don't think I would take a straight up Cruz for Cooks offer. You can probably sell the fact that Cooks is a rookie to owners with weaker hands. But I didn't see any signs of rookiedom in Cooks's game.

Benjamin is in a different situation. He will be relevant by virtue of sheer volume and ability. The fact that he found success against a cover 2 defense with his backup QB on the road just jacked his floor up to at least a WR3. Benjamin is more raw than Cooks, but does it matter? The guy seems to come down with any ball thrown in his vicinity and IMO has a higher ceiling than Cooks this year.

If I've got a WR2/3 with potentially excellent upside, I would expect at the very least the same in return. Essentially it would take another "ascending buy" to make me part with mine.
This is exactly how I feel. I reached for Cooks from watching the combine. It's gonna take a solid RB2 to get him from me.

Good draft, by the way.

 
My ascending buy is Carlos Hyde.

Here's a guy that is on the rise but can actually still be had for cheap because his role this season is as yet to be defined. However reading between the lines I can tell you that he'll have a significant role in the 49ers offense THIS SEASON.

1) They released LaMichael James - This may not seem like a big deal, but the release of James leaves Gore and Hyde as the only RBs on the roster. Whereas before when the niners backfield behind Gore seemed a quagmire of mediocrity, now there is only Hyde. I don't think this is coincidence, the coaches and front office know that they have their guy.

2) Hyde ran exclusively out of the shotgun/read option formation. Whereas Gore only ran out of shotgun 3 times out of 16 attempts. Again I don't think this is coincidence. Hyde has plenty of experience in the read/option from his OSU days whereas Gore has always seemed uncomfortable running from shotgun. This seems largely irrelevant until you factor in the fact that Kaepernick is most dangerous operating out of the read/option shotgun.

3) This is the last year of Gore's contract. Frank Gore is probably my favorite Niner of all time, but like all good things they come to an end. Local beatwriters are already crowning Hyde as the heir apparent, and if the media is thinking it, the coaches likely already know it. The front office may extend Gore beyond this season, but this is Hyde's show next year regardless. He will get the PT necessary to ensure that the "life after Gore" niners have a seasoned vet to handle RB duties by next September.

Last season Gore had 276 carries while the 3 headed monster of Hunter/James/Dixon combined for 118. Speculation before the season began from beatwriters were that Gore will likely get around 200 carries this season. Projecting for a total of 400 combined carries for niner RBs that leaves roughly 185-200 for Hyde which sounds about right to me. The coaching staff has talked about dialing back Gore's workload for years, but IMO they've just never had anyone on the roster capable. TDs will likely also favor Hyde since he appears the favorite to assume Dixon's role of TD vulture.

Gore has amazingly gone from "injury-prone" to one of the ironmen of the NFL. I believe he is currently the leader in active RBs in consecutive games played. Should that streak come to an end, you have an immediate RB1 in Hyde ready to take over. I see a 50/50 split and pure RBBC by midseason in SF provided both guys stay healthy. I can see Hyde having a mini coming out party at home this Sunday Night at home against a TERRIBLE bears run defense so buy while he's still quiet.
Dude, you're spot freaking on. And Gore is one of my starting RB's, so that sucks.

 
I like the Ingram and Hyde buy high calls. I traded Locker for Ingram to a team desperate for a QB. The fact that he's on everyone's "sell high" list makes him a potential value. He looked great in preseason, he's playing for a contract, and he looks angry out there.

Hyde just feels like the right guy to target. He's the type of guy who can totally change your team. I'm trying to acquire in all leagues, but I'm afraid I won't be successful.
Agreed. I also think Benjamin is/will be part of that group. Possibly Freeman to a much lesser degree (and farther down the road). What types of players will you offer to try and acquire Hyde? Where do you see his value at right now?

 
Any chance Witten has fallen off so far that he's done being a weekly starter? For those who watched, how was he moving? was he getting separation? Was it Romo or is Witten in line for a potential fall of the cliff type season?

 
I like the Ingram and Hyde buy high calls. I traded Locker for Ingram to a team desperate for a QB. The fact that he's on everyone's "sell high" list makes him a potential value. He looked great in preseason, he's playing for a contract, and he looks angry out there.

Hyde just feels like the right guy to target. He's the type of guy who can totally change your team. I'm trying to acquire in all leagues, but I'm afraid I won't be successful.
Agreed. I also think Benjamin is/will be part of that group. Possibly Freeman to a much lesser degree (and farther down the road). What types of players will you offer to try and acquire Hyde? Where do you see his value at right now?
Depending on the roster makeup of the Hyde owner I would say something like a non-pass catching starter in a committee that can reliably get points and playing time could entice them if they're trying to fill a hole at RB. Shonne Greene and Chris Ivory come to mind. Perhaps someone that put up points in week one but likely will not maintain that pace like Hurns or Vernon Davis. You can also perhaps package a lesser player with a high upside handcuff like Knile Davis.

Value is not something I like to speculate on since it's relative to the individual team. The appeal of Hyde is that he's a lotto ticket with a higher floor than most people think.

 
I am selling on Cooks, great first game for him, but Colston and Graham are to good to not get the lions share going forward, and don't forget that Stills kid is very good player, and once he gets back on the field that's a lot of mouths to feed, especially with PT grabbing his fair share of rec's. Cooks value will not be higher this year.

 
I am selling on Cooks, great first game for him, but Colston and Graham are to good to not get the lions share going forward, and don't forget that Stills kid is very good player, and once he gets back on the field that's a lot of mouths to feed, especially with PT grabbing his fair share of rec's. Cooks value will not be higher this year.
Wasn't this the argument against him in the first place? If it can happen in week one why not again? Also if you ask me Colston didn't look too great, seemed a step slower and it looked some catches he should have come down with he just didn't. Morgan played in spot of Stills and saw his share of targets. I don't think Stills's presence will affect Cooks much, they have different roles in the offense.

If Lance Moore can get 1000 yds in the Saints offense, then why not Brandin Cooks?

 

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