Jarvis Jones, lots of rumblings (1 Viewer)

Going into the draft I thought OLB Jarvis Jones was the top IDP player in this draft but he fell, a bit further than I thought he would in the draft. I thought the Steelers got a bargain.

I heard a few things but brushed them off but it seems that maybe he did fall for a few reasons I wasn’t aware of.

A few weeks ago, right after the draft. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay stopped by a local Cleveland radio affiliate of ESPN and gave his overview of the Browns draft and many in the Cleveland media grumbled about not making a trade-down with the Rams to pick up an extra second round pick instead of taking LB Barkevious Mingo with the first pick. The prevailing thought was to trade down and draft LB Jarvis Jones who was the top ranked player on fellow ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper’s big board early in the draft process.

McShay gave a cautionary take on Jarvis Jones.

Go to the 9:30 mark of this pod cast to hear McShay’s take on Jarvis Jones.

http://espncleveland.com/common/page.php?pt=podcenter&id=79

05/01/13 - Todd McShay

Added: 5/1/13

ESPN draft analyst, Todd McShay, joins the Really Big Show discussing the Browns draft, Barkevious Mingo, and Leon McFadden.

Todd McShay’s response when asked about LB Jarvis Jones he said.

“Jarvis Jones is an ENORMOUS RISK in my opinion. He fit’s the (inaudible but probably said Steelers) scheme perfectly so I get that but he has spinal stenosis. He has spinal stenosis and you go back and study the history of it and at some point its highly-highly likely that it shortens his career.

Marcus McNeal is the most recent, he fell in the draft because of the spinal stenosis. it’s a narrowing of the spine it can lead to injuries and make you susceptible and ahh, Marcus McNeal was a Pro Bowler then he got a neck injury, it caught up to him and he had to retire a few years later in 2011.

Then you factor in Jarvis Jones, I see speed, the acceleration on tape. I don’t see great lateral agility and ability on tape to turn and run in coverage so that’s probably not going to fit in the Steelers scheme but then he ran a 4.92 in the forty and I’m… ahh gonna trust the tape over a forty every time but its another red flag there so (and then he addressed the specifics of the question pertaining to the scenario that the Browns faced where they had a deal in place with St. Louis where they could have moved down and picked up a second round selection and where they would have taken Jarvis Jones with their top pick he summed up his feelings by saying) I’d much rather get a Keke (Barkevious’ nickname) Mingo.

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Today an article about the Saints selecting Kenny Vaccaro when many were predicting LB Jarvis Jones.

This is what The Saints college scouting director, Rick Reiprish, said about Jarvis Jones. Not really a slam on Jones but more of a positive for Vaccaro.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/05/anatomy_of_a_draft_pick_a_deta.html?utm_content=buffer5b37f&utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer

… STACKING THE BOARD

Once all of the months of practices and all-star games and athletic drills and interviews and visits have ended, teams have about two weeks left to dissect all of their reports and opinions and stack their draft board accordingly.

They'll have daily meetings over that time, where they'll discuss the players -- and how they expect the rest of the draft to play out.

In the end, as Payton said on the night of the draft, the Saints wound up with a "cloud" of four players that they both liked and expected to possibly be available with their pick. Two of them were gone, and two of them remained when the Saints selected Vaccaro - though neither Payton, Reiprish nor Pace offered any specifics on how those players were graded or ranked.

One player who was not in that four-man cloud was Georgia linebacker Jarvis Jones, which seemed to disappoint a lot of Saints fans who coveted the college star when he was still available at No. 15.

Reiprish, however, insisted that the Saints did like Jones a lot - and that one of the hardest parts about the draft each year is that "you only get one choice."

What makes the Vaccaro-Jones debate so fascinating is the difference between their college statistics.

Jones led the country with 14½ sacks and seven forced fumbles last year. On the flip side, Vaccaro had just two interceptions last year and five for his career. Also, Georgia had one of the top defenses in the country, while Texas had one of the worst.

But Reiprish said you have to dig beyond the numbers to fairly evaluate a player.

"There's a lot of times Jarvis Jones was put in a position to make the play, whereas Vaccaro was put in a position that didn't necessarily allow him to make the play," Reiprish said.

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I also stumbled up this today from PFF.

This article gives an analytic statistical take on top drafted linebackers based on metrics of athleticism and draft ranking. Very interesting and in-depth but you can tell from the headline and description of the body of the text that they are also skeptical about Jarvis Jones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/01/jarvis-jones-buyer-beware/

Jarvis Jones – Buyer Beware

Kevin Greenstein | 2013/05/01

This article was written in tandem with Ryan McGlothlin, who has spent the past two years developing a system for evaluating which NFL Draft Combine (and pro day) data most effectively predicts a player’s likelihood of NFL success.

============================================

I was high on Jarvis Jones early on. I liked his tape better than anyone and I felt people were being overly cautious about him but now I not so sure about him.

What do others think about Jarvis Jones?

There are different grades of spinal stenosis. Just because one guy wound up a certain way doesn't mean every guy winds up the same way. Can't recall if it was one of the episodes of The Audible or his blog, but Jene broke it down pretty succinctly within the last week or so.As far as Jones on the field goes, it's hard to argue with his productivity, especially in that conference with OCs scheming to limit him. That bad workout doesn't erase all the game tape. He needs to get a bit stronger, but shouldn't have much of a problem doing that. He doesn't seem like a knucklehead.I don't think he's going to instantly turn into a Harrison-level rusher, but I don't see any reason why he won't be able to continue to get into the backfield at the pro level relatively soon. I could see him needing a year to get LeBeau's defense down, but he actually played as an OLB in a 3-4, unlike most of their DE-to-OLB converts. His learning curve may be a little shallower.Bottom line: He basically tore up the SEC for a couple season, and even had splash plays in the few games his detractors like to point to as negatives "Hey, look...he got handled by Auburn that game! *ignores the 2 sacks he tallied*" Yeah, every SEC OLineman isn't NFL starter caliber, but the talent level in the conference is high and Jones made a ton of plays behind the LOS.Is the stenosis something to consider? Certainly. I wouldn't degrade him for it that much though. If his health holds(overall, not just the spine stuff) I don't see any reason he won't end up outplaying his draft slot.

Quote"There's a lot of times Jarvis Jones was put in a position to make the play, whereas Vaccaro was put in a position that didn't necessarily allow him to make the play," Reiprish said.

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This just sounds silly to me. So, he's dogging a playmaker for making plays? Slighting UGA for trying to put their best defender into a position to make plays? Does. Not. Compute.

Found this on Jene's latest blog post about Jones

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Jarvis Jones (spinal stenosis)

Likelihood of Medical Flag: MODERATE

Second Opinion Combine Medical Spotlight

There are degrees of spinal stenosis, as evidenced by the disagreement among the medical staffs at USC (where he wasn’t cleared to play) and Georgia. It’s likely that one NFL medical staff will have a different opinion on the risk associated with Jones than another. Two full seasons at Georgia without missing playing time will reassure some teams, but probably not all.

http://bramelsecondopinion.com/2013/04/24/14-players-at-risk-of-a-medical-red-flag-on-draft-day/

You don't have to sell me on Jarvis Jones production or the SEC and I heard Jene's assessment and I felt that when he wasn't called back to Indy for a health re-check that it meant he was free and clear of any concerns.

I was fairly confident he would go higher in the draft but then he fell so I thought teams were being too cautious and didn't think their was any more to the story, I didn't even care too much about his poor workout but it seems that their is something there, a doubt that won't go away.

LeBeau doesn't play rookies much so next year he's got a shot to get significant PT so I think he's in-line to be af full time starter next year so this year I don't expect much. I was trying to figure out his career arch if he does blow up next year but it seems longevity won't be mentioned with him. He may turn out like a Kendrell Bell. Played great early on but quickly faded.

I don't think anyone knows how his career will turn out but I went from feeling confident to feeling that their has to something to his drop in the draft and the analytics that PFF churned out.

I get his production and I thought I was confident on his health but I had completely forgotten or overlooked his combine numbers and that is the thing that PFF zeroed in on for predictor of future success so I am going back to re-evaluate everything again.

Two parts of science. First is analysis and that means you take something and break it down. Second is synthsis where you take all of the parts that you broke down and assemble them into a coherent synsapsis.

I thought I had Jarvis broken down but in going back and breaking down everything again I can't seem to re-assemble the pieces into a coherent take on the guy.

You're probably over thinking it.Physicians say he's healthy. He says he's healthy/feels no ill effects from the condition. He was a play maker in the best conference in CFB regardless of the stenosis, etc. etc.If you liked him before, knowing about the spinal condition, I don't see a reason not to like him now given the situation he landed in. A few teams may not have been comfortable with his perceived risks, but we aren't talking about a top 10 guy who fell to the 5th round due to injury issues here either.

QuoteLeBeau doesn't play rookies much so next year he's got a shot to get significant PT so I think he's in-line to be af full time starter next year so this year I don't expect much.

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LeBeau typically doesn't play rookies. He has done so in the past, and this year he is almost going to be forced to by default. Jones may not be a starter from jump, but he's going to get thrown into the fire. They are horribly thin at LB. Ditto Shamarko Thomas at S. This is not going to be a typical year for Pittsburgh. The cap gutted their depth. Some rookies are going to have to play.

QuoteI was trying to figure out his career arch if he does blow up next year but it seems longevity won't be mentioned with him. He may turn out like a Kendrell Bell. Played great early on but quickly faded.

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Possible, but there's no way for anyone, Jones included, to predict his(or anyone's) longevity.Bell was kind of a fluke anyway. He benefited immensely from the supporting cast Pittsburgh had at the time and the fact that he was only asked to go in one direction his rookie year sure didn't hurt either. Even so, he faded due to multiple knee injuries more than anything. If Jones has 3 or 4 of those, as Bell did, he'll probably only last 5-6 years too.

Lance Briggs is the closest comp I can wrap my head around with him being a great college producer and a poorly measured athlete. Even With Briggs I had to lower the bar. It comes down to either trusting the tape or the measurements. You'd rather they lineup together and tell you exactly what you watched. I'm not sure how he was so dominate in the SEC and then slow/weak/un-agile at the same time. It's either one or the other in a head but. I'll lean towards what I seen with my eyes and roll the dice hoping it was just a bad workout. With that said Jones wouldn't be the first great stat producer to measure horribly and flop either. The answer will probably be somewhere in the middle. I'm usually more black or white but I see nothing but grey.

I feel more confident with his teammate Olgletree. He looks just as good without the physical red flags if he could stay clean off the field. I planed in a draft to grab Olgletree early. That didn't happen so I landed Jones and Jamie Collins close to the 50's. I had Olgletree and Jones ranked back to back. It should be interesting to see how it all plays out, because he'll get his chance sooner than later. That has value in it's own right.

Did a bit more digging and found some scouting blurbs.

JS OnLine is a fantastic draft resource.

They do the best pre-draft coverage of any paper that is currently out there.

Lots of info there including rankings of prospects.

They ranked Jones as the third best OLB prospect,

Each ranking begins with the positive aspects of a prospect and at the end they mention the negatives.

The top two guys, Dion Jordan and Bakevious Mingo, have negatives listed so here is the full profile that they have on Jones including the negative at the end.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/nfl-draft-linebacker-prospects-rt9i5l5-204215641.html

. JARVIS JONES, Georgia (6-2½, 249, 4.89, 1) - Fourth-year junior. "Remember Terrell Suggs?" one scout said. "This is a similar situation. Suggs ran 4.85 and this kid ran 4.95. I don't care what people say about his speed. He is a great pass rusher. He's very quick in a short area. He has innate balance and body control. He really knows how to use his hands. He's street-smart savvy is what he is. He can function in coverage because he's a great athlete. Don't ever forget that about him. And he's an OK kid." Played eight games at Southern California in 2009 before doctors discovered he had a cervical condition (spinal stenosis). Eventually, he transferred to Georgia; he's from Columbus, Ga. Played 34 games (26 start), finishing with 168 tackles (45½ for loss), 28 sacks and 12 "big" plays. "He just wins because he's a great athlete," another scout said. "If you want somebody that can make a bunch of plays on the line of scrimmage, that's him. He'll strangle the tight end. He's not a very bright kid (Wonderlic of 13). He doesn't run well and he's not a very good worker other than game day." Tested poorly in the vertical jump (30½ inches), broad jump (9-3) and bench press (20 reps). Was an all-state prep basketball player. "I don't trust him," a third scout said. "He's slow afoot and he plays slow afoot, too. He is very tough. Jarvis is a typical (University of) Georgia kid that is naïve. He's just country."

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Here are the negatives on the top ranked OLB prospect Dion Jordan.

- Dion Jordan = "I was a little disappointed in his shed stuff against the run. A lot of him was just go get the quarterback. Good swim and club moves. Excellent spin move. Kind of average in drops."

Hardly damning, a lil-disappointed in his shed and average in drops.

Here are the negatives listed for the second ranked OLB prospect, Barkevious Mingo.

- Barkevious Mingo = "He's kind of a narrow-waisted, V-shaped body," a third scout said. "He's not going to be 255 or 260. He's an outside backer. The comparison I'd make would be Kamerion Wimbley. This kid didn't make a ton of plays. He was close but no cigar a lot of times. That will be him a little bit in the NFL initially."

A knock on his body type and that he'll never reach a prototypical weight and saying he didn't make a ton of plays and that would hurt him a lil in the the NFL but added INITIALLY meaning they think he is lean right now and it will probably take him a year to add at least a few pounds.

Compare the above with the negatives on the third ranked OLB prospect Jarvis Jones.

- Jarvis Jones = "He's not a very bright kid (Wonderlic of 13). He doesn't run well and he's not a very good worker other than game day." Tested poorly in the vertical jump (30½ inches), broad jump (9-3) and bench press (20 reps). Was an all-state prep basketball player. "I don't trust him," a third scout said. "He's slow afoot and he plays slow afoot, too. He is very tough. Jarvis is a typical (University of) Georgia kid that is naïve. He's just country."

^ Not very bright.

^ Doesn't run well.

^ Tested poorly on vert

^ Tested poorly on broad jump

^ Tested poorly on bench

^ "Don't trust him"

^ Slow afoot

^ Plays slow

So the one aspect of Jarvis Jones that I blew off was the workout numbers and that is what the PFF analytics focused on to determine future success on the field.

I think their is something to the PFF study so I'll be watching to see if they are onto something.

It definetly seems the scouting reports are cleaner on Dion Jordan and Barkevious Mingo compared to Jarvis Jones.

Dallas' entire 2012 draft board was leaked and they not only didn't have him listed as a first round pick, they didn't have him anywhere on their draft board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Players not on the board: It looks like there are several categories of player not on the Cowboys board:

1. Injury or character scratches: First rounders Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Matt Elam aren't on Dallas board. Neither are RB Christine Michael, WRs Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, CBs Tyrann Matthieu and Therold Simon, or DE Sam Montgomery. Clearly, its still important that the players they draft are "RKGs." Further, the team seems to be moving away form selecting talented yet injury-prone players. Several guys with injury histories - Marcus Lattimore, or the aforementioned Jones, for example - are nowhere to be found.

Bracie Smathers said:

Dallas' entire 2012 draft board was leaked and they not only didn't have him listed as a first round pick, they didn't have him anywhere on their draft board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Players not on the board: It looks like there are several categories of player not on the Cowboys board:

1. Injury or character scratches: First rounders Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Matt Elam aren't on Dallas board. Neither are RB Christine Michael, WRs Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, CBs Tyrann Matthieu and Therold Simon, or DE Sam Montgomery. Clearly, its still important that the players they draft are "RKGs." Further, the team seems to be moving away form selecting talented yet injury-prone players. Several guys with injury histories - Marcus Lattimore, or the aforementioned Jones, for example - are nowhere to be found.

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Not good, but they are switching to the Tampa-2 and Jones is a better fit for the 3-4 and they already have Spencer and Ware attempting to convert from being OLB's to DE's. They probably didn't want another to deal with at this time, but Jones is one heck of a player for sure.

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

matttyl said:

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

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what's your scoring system? If it's a big play league, I can understand someone taking a chance on him based on what he did in college coupled with going to the Steelers.

I was diagnosed with mid to severe stenosis and degenerative disc disease(just what they call if your disc are screwed) 10 years ago.

After countless hours of therapy/ cortisone and other nerve blocking cocktail shots/laminectomy/seemingly lifelong prescription to lyrics and hydrocodone I say good luck Jarvis and I am rooting for you.

If we ever see something like a tricept pull Jarvis can't beat or reoccurring pull of that effect there will be fire from that smoke. My issues of stenosis run lower towards my sciatic and I'm fairly sure Jarvis's scare was his arms going dead. So if we ever hear whispers to the effect of Peyton Manning symptoms of weakness or loss of grip be worried.

Bracie Smathers said:

Dallas' entire 2012 draft board was leaked and they not only didn't have him listed as a first round pick, they didn't have him anywhere on their draft board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Players not on the board: It looks like there are several categories of player not on the Cowboys board:

1. Injury or character scratches: First rounders Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Matt Elam aren't on Dallas board. Neither are RB Christine Michael, WRs Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, CBs Tyrann Matthieu and Therold Simon, or DE Sam Montgomery. Clearly, its still important that the players they draft are "RKGs." Further, the team seems to be moving away form selecting talented yet injury-prone players. Several guys with injury histories - Marcus Lattimore, or the aforementioned Jones, for example - are nowhere to be found.

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So the Dallas 1st rounder, was a player they didnt have rated as a 1st rounder.

It also appears all their scratches are positions they dont have any need for. Passrushers, Receivers and Corners. I wouldnt read too much into this, beyond why take any risk at a position with zero need.

* Oh yeah, when this previously occurred on a couple different occasions with Dallas (subterfuge?), we were informed that the board doesn't match their primary draft printouts.

BigSteelThrill said:

Bracie Smathers said:

Dallas' entire 2012 draft board was leaked and they not only didn't have him listed as a first round pick, they didn't have him anywhere on their draft board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Players not on the board: It looks like there are several categories of player not on the Cowboys board:

1. Injury or character scratches: First rounders Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Matt Elam aren't on Dallas board. Neither are RB Christine Michael, WRs Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, CBs Tyrann Matthieu and Therold Simon, or DE Sam Montgomery. Clearly, its still important that the players they draft are "RKGs." Further, the team seems to be moving away form selecting talented yet injury-prone players. Several guys with injury histories - Marcus Lattimore, or the aforementioned Jones, for example - are nowhere to be found.

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So the Dallas 1st rounder, was a player they didnt have rated as a 1st rounder.

It also appears all their scratches are positions they dont have any need for. Passrushers, Receivers and Corners. I wouldnt read too much into this, beyond why take any risk at a position with zero need.

* Oh yeah, when this previously occurred on a couple different occasions with Dallas (subterfuge?), we were informed that the board doesn't match their primary draft printouts.

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Go to the link and you'll find more information.

Their top pick was the top rated player on their board after they traded down.

If you look at the bottom of the article you will find this information where they rank players.

And Dallas does have Dion Jordan listed as their third best player on their board as a DE and they also have Barkevious Mingo listed as the ninth best player on their board as an OLB so its not a matter of them having no-need of any DEs or OLBers. Add both Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware are being moved from 3-4 OLBers to to 4-3 DEs so they would have less need of a guy like Dion Jordan since they have two guys like Ware and Spencer but they still had Dion Jordan as the third highest rated player on their board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

1.

Luke Joeckel, OT 2. Eric Fisher, OT

3. Dion Jordon, DE

4. Dee Milliner, CB

5. Sharrif Floyd, DT

6. Johnathan Cooper, OG

7. Lane Johnson, OT

8. Chance Warmack, OG

9. Barkevious Mingo, OLB

10. Ezekiel Ansah, DE

11. Xavier Rhodes, CB

12. Kenny Vaccaro, S

13. Cordarelle Patterson, WR

14. Tavon Austin, WR

15. Tyler Eifert, TE

16. Sheldon Richardson, DT

17. Bjoern Werner, DE

18. Star Lotulelei, DT

=== listed as players who they felt would be available in the second round === You can see they had Fredrick as the 22nd highest rated player on their board but they felt he would be a 2nd round pick. I felt they blew it by not simply taking DT Sharrif Floyd and not trading down. I think they made the trade with the idea that a player would fall and it backfired on them so they wound up taking Fredrick higher than they wanted.

19, D. J. Fluker, OT

20. DeAndre Hopkins, WR

21, Justin Pugh, OT

22. Travis Frederick, OC

I wasn't sure why Jarvis Jones fell so far and I'm still not entirely certain but it seems like it wasn't just one reason. It seems like it was a combination of different reasons and the injury risk was significant on some team's draft boards like the Cowboys.

Seany.D said:

matttyl said:

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

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what's your scoring system? If it's a big play league, I can understand someone taking a chance on him based on what he did in college coupled with going to the Steelers.

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10 team, start 2 dl, 2 lb, and 2 dbs - Jones is listed as a DL. 1 point per tackle, half a point for half a tackle, 2 points for a FF or a FR. 3 points for a sack or INT. Again, first and so far only rookie IDP taken in the draft, and we're at the end of the 2nd round already, and only one pick away from me taking Arthur Brown at #22.

matttyl said:

Seany.D said:

matttyl said:

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

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what's your scoring system? If it's a big play league, I can understand someone taking a chance on him based on what he did in college coupled with going to the Steelers.

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10 team, start 2 dl, 2 lb, and 2 dbs - Jones is listed as a DL. 1 point per tackle, half a point for half a tackle, 2 points for a FF or a FR. 3 points for a sack or INT. Again, first and so far only rookie IDP taken in the draft, and we're at the end of the 2nd round already, and only one pick away from me taking Arthur Brown at #22.

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As a DL, he should have been the first IDP taken. Look at what the ROLB in the Steelers Lebeau defense puts up historically.

Yeah agree BigSteelThrill. If this guy is a DL he's an even better option, though I would be concerned about a position change, and hopefully the owner that selected him understood that. Still, you can't argue with what guys have done in this defense and Jones sure looks the part to be the next in line for big production.

On my board he was the 4th or 5th linebacker on the list, but I respect his game and if he was a DL in any of my dynasty leagues he would've been at the top of the list for that position.

Rookie outside linebacker Jarvis Jones took reps with the first team.

~Jim Wexell Scout.com.~

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Kind of hard to fathom with how the Steelers typically use of rookies, particularly in Lebeaus D. Despite that tidbit, Jason Worilds is still the starter.

BigSteelThrill said:

matttyl said:

Seany.D said:

matttyl said:

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

Click to expand...

what's your scoring system? If it's a big play league, I can understand someone taking a chance on him based on what he did in college coupled with going to the Steelers.

Click to expand...

10 team, start 2 dl, 2 lb, and 2 dbs - Jones is listed as a DL. 1 point per tackle, half a point for half a tackle, 2 points for a FF or a FR. 3 points for a sack or INT. Again, first and so far only rookie IDP taken in the draft, and we're at the end of the 2nd round already, and only one pick away from me taking Arthur Brown at #22.

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As a DL, he should have been the first IDP taken. Look at what the ROLB in the Steelers Lebeau defense puts up historically.

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Wow, sorry, HUGE TYPO on my part there. I meant to say he's not listed as a DL!! He's listed as a OLB (or just really a LB for our system). We're now in the middle of the 3rd round and Arthur Brown is still available (and I'm about to take him). What gives?

matttyl said:

BigSteelThrill said:

matttyl said:

Seany.D said:

matttyl said:

Somehow this guy was the first rookie IDP taken in my rookie draft. I don't get it.

Click to expand...

what's your scoring system? If it's a big play league, I can understand someone taking a chance on him based on what he did in college coupled with going to the Steelers.

Click to expand...

10 team, start 2 dl, 2 lb, and 2 dbs - Jones is listed as a DL. 1 point per tackle, half a point for half a tackle, 2 points for a FF or a FR. 3 points for a sack or INT. Again, first and so far only rookie IDP taken in the draft, and we're at the end of the 2nd round already, and only one pick away from me taking Arthur Brown at #22.

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As a DL, he should have been the first IDP taken. Look at what the ROLB in the Steelers Lebeau defense puts up historically.

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Wow, sorry, HUGE TYPO on my part there. I meant to say he's not listed as a DL!! He's listed as a OLB (or just really a LB for our system). We're now in the middle of the 3rd round and Arthur Brown is still available (and I'm about to take him). What gives?

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Without knowing anything about your, league, scoring, system, or even which fantasy system you are playing under, It doesn't matter.

If the choice is between Jarvis Jones or Arthur Brown and Jones isn't listed as a DL then its a no-brain decision.

Take ILB Arthur Brown.

Yep. Take Brown.

Jones isn't available as he stated he was the #1 IDP taken. Which made sense as a DL, but was a bit of an overreach as a LB.

I'd take Jones or Olgletree

ShaHBucks said:

I'd take Jones or Olgletree

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Jones (as a LB, NOT as a DL) or Olgetree over Arthur Brown?

matttyl said:

ShaHBucks said:

I'd take Jones or Olgletree

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Jones (as a LB, NOT as a DL) or Olgetree over Arthur Brown?

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And Jamie Collins. I think Brown is just OK. I'm not too excited over him aside from him starting right away. Jones is confusing, ignoring the combine he's a top 10-12 RDP.

Bracie Smathers said:

Dallas' entire 2012 draft board was leaked and they not only didn't have him listed as a first round pick, they didn't have him anywhere on their draft board.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/30/4378574/dallas-cowboys-2013-draft-board-leaked-almost-complete-7-round-board

Players not on the board: It looks like there are several categories of player not on the Cowboys board:

1. Injury or character scratches: First rounders Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree and Matt Elam aren't on Dallas board. Neither are RB Christine Michael, WRs Keenan Allen and Robert Woods, CBs Tyrann Matthieu and Therold Simon, or DE Sam Montgomery. Clearly, its still important that the players they draft are "RKGs." Further, the team seems to be moving away form selecting talented yet injury-prone players. Several guys with injury histories - Marcus Lattimore, or the aforementioned Jones, for example - are nowhere to be found.

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I think this should be disregarded as useful information. Ozzie Newsome is probably the best GM in the league and you're trying to tell me his first round pick wasn't even on the Cowboys board? In a draft where the Cowboys used their first round pick on an OL that almost everyone had a 3rd round grade on?

Some positive news on Jarvis Jones.

Seems he might work his way into a starting role his rookie season.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-2764.html

... *Pittsburgh coaches and officials weren’t exactly thrilled when first-round linebacker Jarvis Jones showed up for early offseason workouts with a hamstring injury, a problem that cropped up, he said, during his “pro day” at Georgia, and which caused him to miss some field-time with the Steelers. But the team has seen enough of the 17th overall pick since then to privately acknowledge that he could be that rarest of commodities: a rookie who actually starts for the Steelers at the prized outside linebacker spot. There’s apparently a decent chance now that Jones can bump fourth-year veteran Jason Worilds (10 sacks in three seasons) as the heir apparent to James Harrison’s old spot on the right side.

One big reason: Unlike most of the players Pittsburgh has developed at outside linebacker, Jones is a pure linebacker. The standard paradigm for the Steelers is to take an undersized college defensive end, then develop him for a year or two as a 3-4 linebacker. Jones will have some rough patches, for sure, but he won’t have to make the switch that so many Steelers’ stars have in the past.

“He’s got (linebacker) instincts,” defensive coordinator **** LeBeau said. “You don’t have to (wean) him off the end stuff.”

Jones was primarily a straight-ahead, rush player at Georgia, with 28 sacks in two years for the Bulldogs. But even though he posted just one interception and six pass breakups in college, he did have some pass-drop responsibilities in the 3-4 scheme of Georgia coordinator Todd Grantham.

Early August training camp update.

Positive report stating that Steelers rookie OLB Jarvis Jones has a good shot to start as rookie, the first since Jack Ham back in 1971 when Richard Nixon was president and that he's flashing, speed, atheleticism, and strength.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/news/20130805/jarvis-jones-pittsburgh-steelers-linebacker/index.html

Don Banks>INSIDE THE NFL

Is Jarvis Jones the next in line of great Steelers linebackers?... some would say a great chance, to become the first Pittsburgh rookie to start at outside linebacker since Ham began his Hall of Fame career by doing so in 1971. It's not the Steelers way to anoint any rookie, so Jones still has to score a clear-cut victory in his preseason battle with fourth-year veteran James Worilds for the right to replace the departed and well-decorated Harrison at right outside linebacker.

But keep in mind the reality of Jones' lofty draft slot, and the fact the Steelers have shown no apparent interest in talking contract extension with Worilds, who is entering the final season of his rookie deal. Pittsburgh has been patient with Worilds, a second-round pick out of Virginia Tech in 2010, but he has totaled just 10 sacks in his three NFL seasons, and has yet to prove he can cut it full-time at rush linebacker, the glamor spot of the #### LeBeau-coached Steelers defense.

Jones, meanwhile, is off to an impressive start in his first Steelers camp, showing good instincts and feel for the game, doing a fair J.J. Watt impersonation with several batted down passes, and flashing the speed, athleticism and strength it takes to collapse the pocket and stand out in pass rush drills. The day I visited Steelers camp, Jones was particularly impressive in the "backs on backers'' drill, where linebackers take turns blitzing a quarterback, while a stationary running back or tight end is tasked with blitz pickup duties. Jones won almost all of his battles, earning some notice from both teammates and coaches.

... a diagnosis of cervical spinal stenosis (a narrowing of the spinal column in his neck) that Jones received in 2009 while playing for Southern Cal -- he later transferred to Georgia after USC would not allow him to play -- re-emerged as an issue this spring and impacted his draft stock. When Jones also posted a relatively "slow'' 40 time at his pro day (in the 4.9 range), the two-time All-America pick was suddenly in play in the teens of the first round.

... The Steelers say the best thing about Jones' game is that it might be ready-made for the NFL. Pittsburgh has had a habit over the years of drafting undersized 4-3 defensive ends and transforming them into outside linebackers in the 3-4 formation it has so successfully fielded since 1982. But those transitions always took time, as the Steelers drained the players' defensive end instincts and taught them how to think, move and react in space, as outside linebackers must do.

No such learning curve is needed for Jones, who played 3-4 rush linebacker at Georgia. His coverage responsibilities for the Bulldogs weren't extensive, but dropping isn't a new skill he must master, and that key distinction should enable him to start making an impact early.

"The difference between him and some others that we've acquired since I've been here is we're asking him to do a job that we saw him do in college,'' Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said. "He's not a convert, and I think there's an advantage from that perspective. There's going to be more young men you can say that about moving forward, because of the evolution of the 3-4 defense in college football.

"This is really the first one that I've personally had a chance to deal with, and you see the background being an advantage for him, having played on two feet in college. Just in him having an outside linebacker's perspective on the game, as opposed to playing with your hand in the dirt.''

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can't wait for him to start next year!

:worildsowner:

saintfool said:

can't wait for him to start next year!

:worildsowner:

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Worilds is still atop the just released depth chart. And even Leveon Bell is listed 3rd string at RB.

Just saw this article and although its far too early to draw any conclusions we have passed the quarter point of the season and so-far Jarvis Jones has turned into a starter but he hasn't had much production.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2013/10/6/4806634/steelers-rookie-jarvis-jones-performance-week-4-2013-season

Jarvis Jones isn't happy with his play so far... "The Steelers brought me in here to pressure the quarterback and create turnovers," Jones said in a comment about his rookie season. "I haven't done any of that yet. So my grade wouldn't be very high, but I'm searching for ways to get better.”

That being said, Jones has ten unassisted tackles on defense and four special team tackles...

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I started this thread due to one thing that was mentioned in the Pro Football Focus analitic article that made a connection between athleticism and NFL success for first round LBers.

I openly wondered if they were onto something becuause I couldn't understand why he fell in the draft.

So with a quarter of the season in the books we have one data point to take a look at.

If anything, the analitic take by PFF is something to check back in on occasionally. Right now, not much to go on other than the first plot on the graph.

Its the halfway point of the season.

Time to check-in.

Here is the production of OLB/DE Jarivs Jones at the halfway point:

TACKLES - 15 solo, 1 assist

SACKS - 0

FORCED FUMBLES - 0

FUMBLES RECOVERED - 0

INTERCEPTIONS - 0

PASSES DEFENSED - 0

======================

Note:

Jones suffered a concusion before the Baltimore game and I don't think he played. He has been active for six games and he was starting before his concussion.

We'll try to check back in at the 3/4 mark of the season and after the season for equal data points to log progress.

-----------------------------------------------

Any takes on Jarvis Jones?

What have Steeler fans seen and what is their take?

@ProFootballTalk: Steelers bench first-rounder Jarvis Jones http://t.co/Cwxzh58RBc

MindCrime said:

@ProFootballTalk: Steelers bench first-rounder Jarvis Jones http://t.co/Cwxzh58RBc

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Saw that.

Odd, that was announced only a few hours after I took another look at Jarivis Jones.

Was really hoping to hear from Steeler fans to try and figure out what the deal is with Jones, if they see or saw something.

The analytic take I noted by PFF is starting to bear some fruit in how they found that guys who lacked top athletic skill at the outside linebacker position tend to not be as successful but I was hoping a homer would have seen something and could contribute.

Bracie Smathers said:

MindCrime said:

@ProFootballTalk: Steelers bench first-rounder Jarvis Jones http://t.co/Cwxzh58RBc

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Saw that.

Odd, that was announced only a few hours after I took another look at Jarivis Jones.

Was really hoping to hear from Steeler fans to try and figure out what the deal is with Jones, if they see or saw something.

The analytic take I noted by PFF is starting to bear some fruit in how they found that guys who lacked top athletic skill at the outside linebacker position tend to not be as successful but I was hoping a homer would have seen something and could contribute.

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The outside backers were losing contain in the Raider game and most thought Woodley was the worse for it (it was his contain lost on the Pryor 93 yard run).

But Jones was pretty invisible. Mind you he was coming off a concussion but he wasnt flashing the last couple starts like he did in his first one.

If LeBeau is saying he isnt taking care of his details like he is supposed to, he wont play.

From this morning's National Football League Post's Sunday Morning Blitz column.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-8917.html
... With just nine sacks so far this season – only Chicago has fewer – the Steelers are considering bringing in a pass-rush tutor to work with players, especially “edge” defenders, in the offseason. Club officials, including coach Mike Tomlin, who realizes that the lack of pressure has resulted in a dearth of takeaways, recently spoke to a pass rush “mentor” about working with some of the team’s defenders. . . .

Bracie Smathers said:

From this morning's National Football League Post's Sunday Morning Blitz column.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-8917.html

... With just nine sacks so far this season – only Chicago has fewer – the Steelers are considering bringing in a pass-rush tutor to work with players, especially “edge” defenders, in the offseason. Club officials, including coach Mike Tomlin, who realizes that the lack of pressure has resulted in a dearth of takeaways, recently spoke to a pass rush “mentor” about working with some of the team’s defenders. . . .

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Who James Harrison?

Rare mention on Pittsburgh LB Jarvis Jones from today's PFT.

Steelers hired former Steeler LB Joey Porter as a coach to help.

Porter said that the Steeler defense is complex but he's going to 'light a fire' under Jones.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/06/19/steelers-hope-joey-porter-can-light-a-fire-under-jarvis-jones/

Steelers hope Joey Porter can light a fire under Jarvis Jones

Posted by Darin Gantt on June 19, 2014, 10:46 AM EDT

The Steelers have used a transition tag and a first round pick the last two years on outside linebackers Jason Worilds and Jarvis Jones.

And now they’re bringing in someone to light a fire under them.

The Steelers brought former pass-rushing star Joey Porter back as a defensive assistant this year, hoping he can bring some edge to a defense that hasn’t shown the same kind of teeth as in the past.

“I’m going to coach the way I played: with my emotions. I love to get after it,” Porter told Alan Robinson of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “They know me, so I don’t have to change.”

The Steelers are old enough (and the 37-year-old Porter is young enough) that he has some former teammates hanging around, and safety Troy Polamalu likes to joke with the man he calls “Coach Peezy.”

But the priority is getting something out of Jones, who had a single sack as a rookie last year, far from what they were expecting.

“[Jones] is anxious to respond,” Porter said. “He wasn’t happy how it turned out, but he feels like he did the best he can. Now it’s try to help him do even more.

“Last year, I can imagine how he struggled with the defense. It’s a complex defense to learn it that fast and be thrown in the fire. But the good thing about it is he wants it for himself.”

While Porter might be remembered as much for his mouth as his actions, the Steelers haven’t gotten his kind of production in a few years, so having him working on Jones might be the right combination.

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Going back to the original article that I saw that predicts future success for drafted linebackers based on athleticism, here are a a few tidbits. Tons of raw data and information but this study is vast and its statistical relevance ranks higher than where a player was drafted 54% for their metrics of athlecism compared to only 45% for draft position. They then tweek their number which they call SPS by adjusting for draft position to increase the 54% up to 55% so this is a pretty good and relevant study that they conducted.

They did the work and came up with a conclusion that Jarvis Jones metrics did not look good for success.

So far he's not tearing it up but I hadn't checked back in to look at that study till this news came out today.

We'll see how much of an impact, if any, that Porter can have on Jones.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/05/01/jarvis-jones-buyer-beware/

...We have evaluated Jones’ athletic measurables as compared with others who have gone through the Combine and played in the NFL since 1999 (the year that Combine/Pro Day statistics are publicly available). We have created position-specific algorithms, based solely on a player’s athletic measurables, that helps to predict NFL success as measured by a player’s Career Approximate Value, as developed and tracked by Pro-Football-Reference.com, divided by a player’s years in the league. The algorithm produces a Success Prediction Score or SPS. We then adjust the SPS by a player’s draft position in order to provide an even more accurate prediction of future success, and find this particularly important for fantasy football (as fantasy players have the benefit of seeing where a player was actually drafted as well as the athletic performance).

For 3-4 outside linebackers (or smaller 4-3 DEs that could play either position), the NFL draft is a particularly poor predictor of success, with only a 45% correlation between draft position and average Career Approximate Value. Our raw SPS has a 54% correlation with ultimate success, so it is already meaningfully better than the draft alone. Adjusting SPS by a player’s draft position increases the correlation to over 55%. In many ways the 3-4 OLB epitomizes the “boom-bust” of the NFL Draft – about half of the first round picks at the position have found success in the past decade, and about half have not. This can be seen clearly in the chart below.

We have shown the rankings of several players who are outliers, good and bad. Aaron Maybin had the worst SPS score of any 1st rounder since 1999 (-1.34 vs. average of 0 and median of .26), and has been pretty much a total bust in the NFL. Rahim Abdullah was another highly-drafted player (2nd round by Cleveland in 1999) who played only two years in the league. His SPS was a poor -1.71. Cameron Wake was a significant outlier the other direction. He was undrafted, but should have been based on his athletic talent alone. His 1.28 SPS is top-20 all-time, and is by far the highest of any undrafted player at this position.

Jarvis Jones has significantly worse athletic measurables as a 3-4 OLB than Maybin or Abdullah with an SPS of -2.58. Interestingly, if we put Jones in the ILB universe he fares a lot better – he has only slightly below-average measurable attributes in that universe.

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This episode of the Josh Norris podcast goes over a statistical metric called SPARQ that utilizes many of the test result numbers and then plugs it into a series of statistical regression formulas to come up with one number that can be used to compare populations of athletes.

They say you do not use this number to select a player but you can and should use it to remove a player who does not rank with the other players.

Guess which player had their worst SPARQ rating they have come across in the first round?

You got it, LB Jarvis Jones and that is the same information that other statistical models noted in this thread also found and came to the same conclusion. Jarvis Jones numbers were statistically low to the point his numbers amounted to a statistical anomaly which is probably why he fell in the draft.

That was my original question posed two years ago when I wondered why he fell so far in the draft and guessed it had to do with his poor combine numbers.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/52478/461/norris-podcast-episode-seven

Norris: Podcast Episode SevenSaturday, February 28, 2015

...In Episode Seven of Process the Process, Zach Whitman joined me to discuss the definition of analytics, SPARQ, using athletic testing to enhance evaluations, if the difference between Combine results and Pro Day results matters and much more.