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Defensive Back Tiers [post-OTA update 7/5] (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Defensive Back tiers (post OTA / minicamp) ~ posted 7/5

Defensive Back tiers (post-draft / initial version) ~ posted 6/1

No major modification to the tier process this year but I have made one major modification to the presentation process. The tier features will be presented in table format, which will allow me to include a one-liner for every player tiered.

If you see a possible omission or table error, my love and appreciation in advance for noting it in this thread, by email or via Twitter. And thanks in advance for any discussion and feedback you've got for the thread.

 
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Jene, what do youthink of Earl Wolff in philly?

Nice to see you high on Bucannon and Gillbert. Gilbert was one of the greatest return men in ncaa history. He should be good if your league awards points for returns.

 
Sign me up for Donte Whitner at that price virtually everywhere (and petition my GM to allow me to roster and use him twice).

 
Also, as a general concept; I assume you're in favor of waiting on DB in a draft and finding cheap values in auctions.

Is DB the least valuable position in standard IDP leagues? (aside from kicker)

 
DJ Swearinger: Behind Reed? You mean behind the off-line LBs, right.

Assuming Cushing stays healthy how is his situation better than Matt Elam's (I know they are in the same tier, just the one line comment makes it sound completely different)

 
ShaHBucks said:
Jene, what do youthink of Earl Wolff in philly?
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Injury prone and inconsistent. Early OTA buzz has Allen ahead of him. If Wolff wins the job, toss him in the matchup cloud best bets if you believe he stays healthy long enough to be worth holding.

 
georg013 said:
TJ McDonald?
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Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.

 
FUBAR said:
Why isn't TJ Ward in Tier 1? He's my top DB target this year.
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There isn't much difference between the end of the top tier and the beginning of this second tier of safeties. This tier, as it did last year, could morph into a Tier 1A by mid-August.

Still, it's a fair question. The turnover at linebacker is significant and Ihenacho started strong. I don't think I'd have Ward in the top three, but I may have underrated him here.

 
FUBAR said:
Also, as a general concept; I assume you're in favor of waiting on DB in a draft and finding cheap values in auctions.

Is DB the least valuable position in standard IDP leagues? (aside from kicker)
Click to expand...
Generally, yes.

But that's mostly because it's rare to find a clear and trustworthy relative value due to the variance in the position. If I was confident Barry Church could put up 105 solos again, he'd be a better draft pick / auction value than any nearly every other IDP, regardless of position.

 
msommer said:
DJ Swearinger: Behind Reed? You mean behind the off-line LBs, right.

Assuming Cushing stays healthy how is his situation better than Matt Elam's (I know they are in the same tier, just the one line comment makes it sound completely different)
Click to expand...
Smith / Mosley have the potential to be much steeper competition for tackles than Cushing / Reed. And I believe Swearinger has a higher run support ceiling due to his style of play.

 
Jene Bramel said:
georg013 said:
TJ McDonald?
Click to expand...
Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.
Click to expand...
Jene, is there a way this could be elaborated upon further (understanding it may take some time). There could be a nice potential oppty to slough this position during IDP drafts and effectively play a QBBC for WW safeties and CB's during the season.

Of course it all depends on identifying the criteria for a good DB matchup and then determining whether those criteria hold up consistently enough for some predictability.

For example, I have had occasional success picking up good corner CB's off the wire (e.g. P. Peterson, J. Haden) a week or two prior to a matchup with Megatron. As you know these CB's are not generally great season-long FF plays but were great in single instances.

Safeties not so much. Last year a guy like Cyprien was available on the WW early, then seemingly had great matchups in weeks 7-10 including SD and SF but was terrible statistically.

I know Mr. Norton has rankings every week but I have not found much success with those either. In addition, I believe Mr. Rudnicki has a IDP Matchup Exploit/Avoid column but that doesn't map to a "matchup cloud tier" and again not certain when you look back how good the predictions were.

I guess my point is that having a matchup cloud tier is great and all. But unless predictability is reasonably consistent we should just accept there is too much randomness in performance of lower tier IDP's and therefore the best strategy should always be plug-and-play a top tier guy and hope for the best.

TIA

 
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PhantomJB said:
Jene Bramel said:
georg013 said:
TJ McDonald?
Click to expand...
Every safety with a starting job is technically part of the matchup cloud tier. I think there's too much variance in the STL secondary with Laurinaitis and Ogletree, but McDonald is nearer the top of the cloud than the bottom.
Click to expand...
Jene, is there a way this could be elaborated upon further (understanding it may take some time). There could be a nice potential oppty to slough this position during IDP drafts and effectively play a QBBC for WW safeties and CB's during the season.

TIA
Click to expand...
Great idea. Added to my offseason schedule. Thanks.

 
Micah Hyde was at safety at the first OTA's. Don't expect him to start there but they want him on the field a lot, playing safety and dime CB probably. He'll probably move around. No word yet on who plays SS, Burnett or Clinton Dix.

 
What do you think of Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Casey Hayward in CB required leagues this year? Blidi is taking over Verner's position which has been productive in the past, and Hayward did well before he lost last season

 
Was it an oversight that DB's weren't updated when the LB's and DL's were on 8/2? Or just not enough change to be worth an update?

 
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