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2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)

Raider Nation said:
I'm in multiple survivor leagues and I'm going to be a heavy investor in the Packers this week.

They are -8 at home against the Jets.

The Jets have already won and the Packers lost. GB isn't starting the season 0-2.

Denver (-13) vs. KC and San Francisco (-7) vs. Chicago are the other big favorites, but the division game could be tricky for the Broncos, and I don't feel comfortable betting against the Bears' potentially potent offense. The Pack makes the most sense this week.
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I just hate to rely on GB with Lacy iffy and Bulaga out. Hate to throw away the year in week two because I think enough might be enough.

Much as I hate to burn a powerhouse in week two, it's better to live and fight another day. Denver at home against a decimated and (I have to assume) demoralized KC team seems like such a lock on a week where I'm struggling to feel good about anything else.

So my path to glory is going to have to be...

WK 1: PIT

WK 2: DEN

...and then I'll figure out a way to live with the decision afterward. :(

 
Freelove said:
Raider Nation said:
I'm in multiple survivor leagues and I'm going to be a heavy investor in the Packers this week.

They are -8 at home against the Jets.

The Jets have already won and the Packers lost. GB isn't starting the season 0-2.

Denver (-13) vs. KC and San Francisco (-7) vs. Chicago are the other big favorites, but the division game could be tricky for the Broncos, and I don't feel comfortable betting against the Bears' potentially potent offense. The Pack makes the most sense this week.
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I just hate to rely on GB with Lacy iffy and Bulaga out. Hate to throw away the year in week two because I think enough might be enough.

Much as I hate to burn a powerhouse in week two, it's better to live and fight another day. Denver at home against a decimated and (I have to assume) demoralized KC team seems like such a lock on a week where I'm struggling to feel good about anything else.

So my path to glory is going to have to be...

WK 1: PIT

WK 2: DEN

...and then I'll figure out a way to live with the decision afterward. :(
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That's not a bad thought... I could see taking Seattle for the same reason. I think I'm going to go a tiny bit riskier with New Orleans. I think they are just about as safe, but they could end up having some slightly more difficult divisional games.

 
Freelove said:
Raider Nation said:
I'm in multiple survivor leagues and I'm going to be a heavy investor in the Packers this week.

They are -8 at home against the Jets.

The Jets have already won and the Packers lost. GB isn't starting the season 0-2.

Denver (-13) vs. KC and San Francisco (-7) vs. Chicago are the other big favorites, but the division game could be tricky for the Broncos, and I don't feel comfortable betting against the Bears' potentially potent offense. The Pack makes the most sense this week.
Click to expand...
I just hate to rely on GB with Lacy iffy and Bulaga out. Hate to throw away the year in week two because I think enough might be enough.
Click to expand...
NYJ looked like garbage at home against the Raiders. Lacy or not, Rodgers could throw for 500 yards if he felt like it.

 
Raider Nation said:
Freelove said:
Raider Nation said:
I'm in multiple survivor leagues and I'm going to be a heavy investor in the Packers this week.

They are -8 at home against the Jets.

The Jets have already won and the Packers lost. GB isn't starting the season 0-2.

Denver (-13) vs. KC and San Francisco (-7) vs. Chicago are the other big favorites, but the division game could be tricky for the Broncos, and I don't feel comfortable betting against the Bears' potentially potent offense. The Pack makes the most sense this week.
Click to expand...
I just hate to rely on GB with Lacy iffy and Bulaga out. Hate to throw away the year in week two because I think enough might be enough.
Click to expand...
NYJ looked like garbage at home against the Raiders. Lacy or not, Rodgers could throw for 500 yards if he felt like it.
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Hmm... GB does seem like a solid play, too. If you look at their schedule, they don't seem to have any other match-ups that really stand out, just yet.

 
I'm leaning GB but I feel dirty doing it. The Jets could run the ball right down their throat and all bets are off at that point. I agree GB doesn't have too many gimmees on the schedule so that gives this pick some ooomph but I'm not convinced. :headwall:

 
Futz said:
I'm leaning GB but I feel dirty doing it. The Jets could run the ball right down their throat and all bets are off at that point. I agree GB doesn't have too many gimmees on the schedule so that gives this pick some ooomph but I'm not convinced. :headwall:
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Exactly. It's between them or saints for me. I don't want to use broncos yet
 
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

This week, I like Den vs KC. Violates rule #2, but KC is reeling right now. Also, for those wanting to save Denver for later - they don't have a non-divisional home game against a bad opponent until week 14 vs BUF, so might as well use them now.

 
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

This week, I like Den vs KC. Violates rule #2, but KC is reeling right now. Also, for those wanting to save Denver for later - they don't have a non-divisional home game against a bad opponent until week 14 vs BUF, so might as well use them now.
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I do 1-3 also.

Last week Pit, this week GB. No way they start the season 0-2, and they will have a chip on their shoulder because of last weeks loss.

 
seahawk 17 said:
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

This week, I like Den vs KC. Violates rule #2, but KC is reeling right now. Also, for those wanting to save Denver for later - they don't have a non-divisional home game against a bad opponent until week 14 vs BUF, so might as well use them now.
Click to expand...
I do 1-3 also.

Last week Pit, this week GB. No way they start the season 0-2, and they will have a chip on their shoulder because of last weeks loss.
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But the steelers played a divisional team last week...
 
Leaning GB this week. This is GB's easiest non-divisional home game.

I'm also looking at TB for the same reasons. TB didn't wow me this past Sunday, but man the Rams look awful.

 
massraider said:
9/11 8:25 ET At Baltimore -2.5 Pittsburgh 43.5 -$145 +$125

9/14 1:00 ET At Carolina -2.5 Detroit 43.5 -$145 +$125

9/14 1:00 ET Miami -1 At Buffalo 43 -$115 -$105

9/14 1:00 ET At Washington -6 Jacksonville 43.5 -$260 +$220

9/14 1:00 ET At Tennessee -4 Dallas 49 -$210 +$180

9/14 1:00 ET At NY Giants -1 Arizona 44 -$120 +$100

9/14 1:00 ET New England -3.5 At Minnesota 49 -$180 +$160

9/14 1:00 ET New Orleans -6 At Cleveland 47.5 -$280 +$240

9/14 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -5 Atlanta 48 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:05 ET At Tampa Bay -5 St. Louis 37 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:05 ET Seattle -5.5 At San Diego 44.5 -$245 +$205

9/14 4:25 ET Houston -3 At Oakland 39 -$150 +$130

9/14 4:25 ET At Green Bay -8.5 NY Jets 46 -$410 +$340

9/14 4:25 ET At Denver -13.5 Kansas City 51 -$900 +$675

9/14 8:30 ET At San Francisco -7 Chicago 48.5 -$320 +$260

9/15 8:35 ET At Indianapolis -3 Philadelphia 53.5 -$150 +$130
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I realize this thread isn't about betting, but the o/u picks last week worked well, so I'm going to post some more. The games in black are too close for me to call. For Entertainment Purposes Only

 
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TeeDub said:
seahawk 17 said:
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

This week, I like Den vs KC. Violates rule #2, but KC is reeling right now. Also, for those wanting to save Denver for later - they don't have a non-divisional home game against a bad opponent until week 14 vs BUF, so might as well use them now.
Click to expand...
I do 1-3 also.

Last week Pit, this week GB. No way they start the season 0-2, and they will have a chip on their shoulder because of last weeks loss.
Click to expand...
But the steelers played a divisional team last week...
Click to expand...
There is an exception to every rule...Browns had not won in Pitt since 2005. (And as we know, lost again.)

 
seahawk 17 said:
TeeDub said:
seahawk 17 said:
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

This week, I like Den vs KC. Violates rule #2, but KC is reeling right now. Also, for those wanting to save Denver for later - they don't have a non-divisional home game against a bad opponent until week 14 vs BUF, so might as well use them now.
Click to expand...
I do 1-3 also.

Last week Pit, this week GB. No way they start the season 0-2, and they will have a chip on their shoulder because of last weeks loss.
Click to expand...
But the steelers played a divisional team last week...
Click to expand...
There is an exception to every rule...Browns had not won in Pitt since 2005. (And as we know, lost again.)
Click to expand...
Lol. Same reason I picked them too
 
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

5. Wait until Manziel is starting and pick the team that plays the Browns.
Click to expand...
Added one. :cool:

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

5. Wait until Manziel is starting and pick the team that plays the Browns.
Click to expand...
Added one. :cool:
Click to expand...
actually, yes that is a rule of mine. Except its all rookie QB's, not just Manziel.

 
I went Phily Week 1 in mine, going Denver week 2. I can be cute in week 5 or so once most of the others have been eliminated.

That said, Phily has me ####ing bricks last week............ LOL

 
moleculo said:
Grigs Allmoon said:
moleculo said:
Here's my survivor rules:

1. pick a home team.

2. try to pick opponent of horrible team once you can determine who is horrible.

3. don't pick divisional opponents.

4. bad teams don't travel distances well. east coast teams playing oakland is generally good.

5. Wait until Manziel is starting and pick the team that plays the Browns.
Click to expand...
Added one. :cool:
Click to expand...
actually, yes that is a rule of mine. Except its all rookie QB's, not just Manziel.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I'd automatically start the Jacksonville opponent once they go to Bortles. He looked like the real deal to me in preseason (I know).

 
I went with the Pack with 2 of my 3 spots. Not gonna overthink this. If Rodgers doesn't ABUSE the Jets' secondary, I'll eat my hat.

 
Nevermind.... I LOVE SURVIVOR POOLS!!! :excited:

Almost had a Denver bloodbath. That would have been spectacular. But alas, Alex Smith happened.

 
Lascelle said:
I think today literally scared everyone into riding New England against the Raiders next week. Just so we can catch our breath.
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Normally I would go against the grain and root for the bloodbath, but the Raiders have ZERO chance of winning that game.

 
Wow, take a look at New England's schedule. After this week, the only spot where you'd feel pretty comfortable taking them is week 15, home against Miami.

Brutal schedule.

 
Pats for me this week. Kills two birds with one stone because if they somehow lose that game, I not only get knocked out of the pool but I can put to be any notion that the Pats are legit this year.

 
Rolling with new england. thought about atlanta or indy also. but safer to go new england

 
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Yeah, this is one of those weeks where the safe play and the smart play seem to coincide. NE with what ought to be a cakewalk, in probably the game where they'll be the biggest favorite they'll see the rest of the year, so why wait on them? That said, there are about five matchups this week I'd feel totally comfortable with. :shrug:

WK 1: PIT

WK 2: DEN

WK 3: NE

 
Gottabesweet said:
Saints at home can't go 0-3 can they?
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That's what I'm thinking too, but they said that (0-2, 2 straight losses, etc) about Indy yesterday.

ADP's back... with a vengeance or losing focus?

I like the home team on a Thursday night too but haven't watched TB or ATL play much yet.

 
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Raider Nation said:
Lehigh98 said:
Raider Nation said:
Wow, take a look at New England's schedule. After this week, the only spot where you'd feel pretty comfortable taking them is week 15, home against Miami.

Brutal schedule.
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NE looks like the only good option in week 7 though. (-9 vs Jets)
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I don't consider that game a slam dunk at all. And other viable options will surely pop up by W9.
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That's the Thursday nighter too, even less time for Jets to prepare, look at the others...

Oct. 16

New York Jets at New England Patriots, 8:25

Oct. 19

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens, 1

Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills, 1

Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears, 1

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions, 1

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, 1

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, 1

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams, 1

Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins, 1

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers, 4:05

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25

Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders, 4:25

San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos, 8:30*

Oct. 20

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30

 
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Got by with GB luckily but I'm not even rolling the dice this week. It's NE and if I get bounced with them at home and Oakland travelling for 1pm game, then so be it. It's about as much of a lock as you are going to see in a year with no true dominant teams thus far.

 
ESPN & numberFire:

Despite the Saints' 0-2 start -- ruining many pools -- they are a popular pick this week against the Minnesota Vikings (who won't have Adrian Peterson). The Saints own the No. 3 offense in the NFL, adding a point above expectation for every five plays. The injury to Mark Ingram could hurt dramatically, though. Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will need to step up in Ingram's place.

Both of the Saints' losses were incredibly close. However, the games were that close only because of a porous defense. The Saints' defense is the inverse image of the team's offense, ranking third-to-last in efficiency. In particular, the D ranks third-to-last against the run, having allowed nearly 16 points more than a league-average defense

In Week 3, the three most picked teams are the New England Patriots (40.8 percent),Indianapolis Colts (18.6 percent) and Atlanta Falcons (7.7 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week (Vegas win probabilities according to Westgate Las Vegas Superbook):

1. New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (81.0 percent numberFire win probability, 83.3 percent Vegas win probability)

Population-adjusted win probability*: 78.2 percent

The Saints need to win this game to have any chance at a playoff spot. Despite the recent history of 0-2 teams, we still give them a 33.3 percent chance to see action in January.

2. Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Redskins (76.7 percent nF, 73.3 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 76.1 percent

The Eagles made a dramatic comeback Monday night against the Colts, winning on a last-second field goal. Philly has succeeded with the No. 6 defense against the run and the No. 5 rushing attack in the NFL, adding more than four points per game above expectation. Kirk Cousins will face a much steeper challenge than he did against the Jaguars.

3. Carolina Panthers over Pittsburgh Steelers (69.2 percent nF, 63.0 percent Vegas)

Population-adjusted win probability: 68.9 percent

The Panthers dominated a Detroit Lions team that looked unstoppable in Week 1. Cam Newtonleads the No. 2 passing offense in the NFC, adding a point above expectation for every four passing plays. Carolina has also been extremely successful defending the pass, ranking No. 2 in the NFC. The Panthers' defense should give Big Ben & Co. fits after the Steelers' horrendous offensive performance on Thursday night.

Note: The Cincinnati Bengals are just behind the Panthers with a population-adjusted win probability of 68.1 percent.

* numberFire projected win probability adjusted for the percentage of people selecting this team in ESPN Eliminator Pools

​
Probable picks

Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 3:

1. New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings (81.0 percent numberFire win probability, 83.3 percent Vegas win probability)

2. New England Patriots over Oakland Raiders (76.7 percent nF, 93.3 percent Vegas)

3. Philadelphia Eagles over Washington Redskins (76.7 percent nF, 73.3 percent Vegas)

Max methodWinning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look to the future because you can pick each team only once. This is a great week to use New England, Cincinnati or New Orleans as it is projected to be each team's highest win probability of the year. As a division rival, the Colts have two games against the Jaguars, including one this week on the road and one Week 12 at home. The Week 12 game is the Colts' ideal time to be used if you can wait (or survive) that long.
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