What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

All things 2015 NFL draft - post it if you've got it (1 Viewer)

PFT has an updated declared list. Looks like another strong WR class.

Alabama S Landon Collins
Alabama WR Amari Cooper
Alabama RB TJ Yeldon
Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong
Auburn WR Sammie Coates
California WR Chris Harper
Colorado State RB Dee Hart
Clemson P Bradley Pinion
Boise State RB Jay Ajayi
Georgia RB Todd Gurley
Indiana RB Tevin Coleman
Florida DE Dante Fowler Jr
Florida OT DJ Humphries
Florida RB Matt Jones
Florida State CB Ronald Darby
Florida State DE Mario Edwards Jr
Florida State CB PJ Williams
Florida State QB Jameis Winston
Houston WR Deontay Greenberry
Kansas WR Nigel King
Louisville S Gerod Holliman
Louisville S James Sample
LSU LB Kwon Alexander
LSU CB Jalen Collins
Maryland WR Stefon Diggs
Miami (Fla) OT Ereck Flowers
Miami (Fla) RB Duke Johnson
Michigan WR Devin Funchess
Michigan State CB Trae Waynes
Minnesota TE Maxx Williams
Mississippi State RB Josh Robinson
Missouri DE Shane Ray
Mississippi State LB Benardrick McKinney
Nebraska DE Randy Gregory
Ohio State DE Noah Spence
Oklahoma WR Dorial Green-Beckham
Penn State DE Deion Barnes
Penn State TE Jesse James
Penn State OT Donovan Smith
Rice DT Christian Covington
Rutgers TE Tyler Kroft
South Carolina RB Mike Davis
Southern Mississippi DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches
Stanford CB Alex Carter
Stanford OT Andrus Peat
Syracuse S Durell Eskridge
Texas DT Malcom Brown
Texas A&M RB Trey Williams
Tulane CB Lorenzo Doss
UCLA QB Brett Hundley
USC WR Nelson Agholor
USC DE Leonard Williams
Utah OL Jeremiah Poutasi
Virginia DE Eli Harold
Virginia LB Max Valles
Ex-Washington CB Marcus Peters
Washington LB Shaq Thompson
Washington State DE Xavier Cooper
Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon
 
Every year we see someone who points out that you don't have to take a quarterback with a 1st round draft pick because look at 6th round pick Tom Brady or 3rd round pick Russell Wilson non-drafted free agent Tony Romo. Um yeah, those guys are the exceptions what you don't see are the other quarterbacks who never made.

This article logs all 115 QBs drafted in rounds 4 through 7 dating back to the year 2000 showing the stark reality of how ineffective those picks turned out for the teams drafting those QBs taking a flyer hoping to find the next Tom Brady.

Go to the link to see the full list of all 115 late round QBs because its realllllllllllllllllllllllly long.

http://all22breakdown.com/how-not-to-draft-in-the-nfl-quarterbacks/

How Not To Draft In The NFL: Quarterbacksby Marcus Mosher · January 8, 2015

... Today, we are going to look at drafting quarterbacks in the late rounds. Typically, these are the rounds (4-7) in which teams draft quarterback ...

... I would advise teams to not use a pick on a quarterback after the third round. If your primary goal is to draft a backup quarterback and not have them play, you are already wasting your pick. For the purpose of just a backup quarterback, we have seen that there’s no real success in drafting a backup quarterback as they have no higher of a win percentage than a quarterback in free agency or wherever else they may appear. It also so happens to be that most teams in the NFL don’t pass on franchise quarterbacks multiple times in one draft, therefore there aren’t many “diamonds in the rough” in those later rounds. But let’s dig into this a little further.

Below is a list of every quarterback drafted in rounds four through seven since 2000. There has been a total of 115 drafted and we will analyze these quarterbacks:

Quite a list, huh? Of those 115 quarterbacks, only 33% of them went on to start more than one game. Only 55% of that entire list even attempted a pass in the NFL. For the most part, you are just as likely to draft a quarterback that will never attempt an NFL pass than drafting one who will. For that fact alone it would scare me away from using a pick in those rounds on a quarterback.

If you remove Tom Brady from that list(we will get to him in a moment), those 114 quarterbacks combined for 792 starts, which actually seemed high to me at first. But in those 792 games, those quarterbacks went 283-508-1. That means quarterbacks not named Tom Brady combined to have a career win percentage of 36%. Not good.

Speaking of Brady, we know that he is clearly the exception to the rule. Some quarterbacks did go on to have minor to some success in the NFL (Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Ryan Fitzpatrick,) but Brady is the crown jewel of this group. He is what everyone hopes and prays their day three pick evolves into.

But here’s the fact. If you selected a quarterback in rounds four through seven from 2000 to 2014, there was a less than one percent chance he became a franchise quarterback. Would you be willing to throw away a pick every year in the hope that you hit on the less than one percent magic draft card? I mean, I guess people play the lottery knowing they have much worst odds than that, right?

Or are you from the camp that would rather spend that pick building the rest of your team and drafting a player at a different position with a much higher probability of greatness? If my best case scenarios include Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton, I am looking to spend my pick/s elsewhere.
Click to expand...
 
Those numbers are very skewed. If a coach/gm/owner take a QB early he HAS TO play. If he fails the coach/gm get another chance and it's the QB's fault because everyone liked him. Nobody is going to draft a 4th or 5th round rated QB in the first because they'll be thought a fool and lose their job if the QB fails. If they take one in the 5th or 6th and he fails they'll lose their job for playing him and not knowing he would fail. These are bigtime jobs. You get a lot more slack if you took the guy everyone likes early. So anyone that takes a QB late has little to gain from playing him. That doesn't mean they suck.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Of those 115 quarterbacks, only 33% of them went on to start more than one game. Only 55% of that entire list even attempted a pass in the NFL. For the most part, you are just as likely to draft a quarterback that will never attempt an NFL pass than drafting one who will. For that fact alone it would scare me away from using a pick in those rounds on a quarterback.
Click to expand...
How does that compare to 4th-7th round picks at other positions (disregarding the time they spend on special teams)?

 
A variety of thoughts on the QB thing:

...If you don't cut it off right at 2000, you run into a much bigger bumper crop of later round and undrafted successes.

...This doesn't take into account the relatively higher hit rate with some other positions, nor, therefore, the opportunity cost of taking a QB early.

...There is very real value to finding a good, reliable backup QB in those late rounds, too.

...Even up through the HOF, there is a good pedigree of success for the idea of letting somebody else draft, groom, and move on from your eventual HOF QB. There are certainly plenty of HOF QB's who were taken 1.01 by their teams, but for every one of those guys, there are guys who never panned out for their first team, or were drafted late, or who went undrafted, etc.

The history of the NFL is hardly Brady and then a whole bunch of Mannings and Bradshaws. There's plenty of Montanas and Bradys, Unitases and Moons, Youngs and Elways, Warners and Foutses...and leaving alone the ancient HOF, plenty of modern Romos and Hasselbecks and Wilsons and Foleses and Grbacs and Trent Greens, too.

You can certainly make the case that nailing your QB with 1.01 is an awesome strategy if you can pull it off. But the case for waiting isn't nearly as bleak as some want to paint it.

 
Slider said:
Those numbers are very skewed. If a coach/gm/owner take a QB early he HAS TO play. If he fails the coach/gm get another chance and it's the QB's fault because everyone liked him. Nobody is going to draft a 4th or 5th round rated QB in the first because they'll be thought a fool and lose their job if the QB fails. If they take one in the 5th or 6th and he fails they'll lose their job for playing him and not knowing he would fail. These are bigtime jobs. You get a lot more slack if you took the guy everyone likes early. So anyone that takes a QB late has little to gain from playing him. That doesn't mean they suck.
Click to expand...
The article took a look at drafting QBs in the late rounds and those are the results they came up with.

You think the numbers are VERY SKEWED.

OK, tell what you think the numbers really mean or provide different numbers because their numbers look solid to me as do their results that they derived from the numbers.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Bracie Smathers said:
Of those 115 quarterbacks, only 33% of them went on to start more than one game. Only 55% of that entire list even attempted a pass in the NFL. For the most part, you are just as likely to draft a quarterback that will never attempt an NFL pass than drafting one who will. For that fact alone it would scare me away from using a pick in those rounds on a quarterback.
Click to expand...
How does that compare to 4th-7th round picks at other positions (disregarding the time they spend on special teams)?
Click to expand...
Context is a great point but teams don't draft as many QBs as they do DBs or linemen or LBs, RBs, etc. and QBs don't typically play on special teams so the stat that you pulled stating only 55% of late drafted QBs even attempt a pass is probably the worst of any position. Just makes sense that QBs would have the worst chance to see the field if they were a late flyer type pick whereas a late flyer on a DB or lineman would have a far greater shot for at least one chance to see the field.

 
Freelove said:
A variety of thoughts on the QB thing:

...If you don't cut it off right at 2000, you run into a much bigger bumper crop of later round and undrafted successes.

...This doesn't take into account the relatively higher hit rate with some other positions, nor, therefore, the opportunity cost of taking a QB early.

...There is very real value to finding a good, reliable backup QB in those late rounds, too.

...Even up through the HOF, there is a good pedigree of success for the idea of letting somebody else draft, groom, and move on from your eventual HOF QB. There are certainly plenty of HOF QB's who were taken 1.01 by their teams, but for every one of those guys, there are guys who never panned out for their first team, or were drafted late, or who went undrafted, etc.

The history of the NFL is hardly Brady and then a whole bunch of Mannings and Bradshaws. There's plenty of Montanas and Bradys, Unitases and Moons, Youngs and Elways, Warners and Foutses...and leaving alone the ancient HOF, plenty of modern Romos and Hasselbecks and Wilsons and Foleses and Grbacs and Trent Greens, too.

You can certainly make the case that nailing your QB with 1.01 is an awesome strategy if you can pull it off. But the case for waiting isn't nearly as bleak as some want to paint it.
Click to expand...
In the past I had gone back to the 1980s working with all QBs drafted past the first round. This article only goes back to 2000 and uses only rounds 4-7. You don't want to go back too far since the game has changed so much over the years and the draft has changed, number of teams in the leagues, defenses, rules, coaches, etc. I like this list since the year 2000 is more reflective of the current state of the NFL than using numbers from the 1990s and 1980s or 1970s.

The numbers I found were much worse for teams trying to find a 'franchise' QB in the late rounds but this article came to a conclusion of under 1% so I won't quibble.

Yeah, if you want a backup you can find them past the first round and the numbers I found were odd. Past the first round the 3rd and 6th rounds had the highest numbers of finding a 'capable' or decent backup or 'solid' starting QB for a few years but the numbers still sucked compared to finding a QB in the first round. I'm finding that teams are getting better at drafting meaning that obviously the higher the pick the better career for the player especially at QB so the 2nd round has 'recently' had a higher rate of success in finding 'ok' or capable starters/backups and Kap and Dalton have helped that but we're talking about small sample sizes since not a lot of QBs are 'typically' drafted past the first round so taking a long term view and coming to general conclusions is a good way to look at the numbers.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Slider said:
Those numbers are very skewed. If a coach/gm/owner take a QB early he HAS TO play. If he fails the coach/gm get another chance and it's the QB's fault because everyone liked him. Nobody is going to draft a 4th or 5th round rated QB in the first because they'll be thought a fool and lose their job if the QB fails. If they take one in the 5th or 6th and he fails they'll lose their job for playing him and not knowing he would fail. These are bigtime jobs. You get a lot more slack if you took the guy everyone likes early. So anyone that takes a QB late has little to gain from playing him. That doesn't mean they suck.
Click to expand...
The article took a look at drafting QBs in the late rounds and those are the results they came up with.

You think the numbers are VERY SKEWED.

OK, tell what you think the numbers really mean or provide different numbers because their numbers look solid to me as do their results that they derived from the numbers.
Click to expand...
And I told you why their numbers look like that. A 1st rd QB will get EVERY chance to succeed from draft to training camp to games. If he fails it's all on him most times. Playing a guy you took in the 5th or 6th only happens because of injury or some other extrordinary happening. If nothing happens and you play him and he fails you get fired for failing to get a QB early. There is 0 risk to taking one top 5 and all the risk when playing a 5th round guy. These late rounders get very little first team/TC reps.

 
Jan 12, already a mock without a QB #1 overall.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/24955790/nfl-mock-draft-tampa-bay-passes-on-qbs-at-no-1-overall

First 10 picks:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Leonard Williams, DT, Southern Cal: The Bucs could very well roll the dice on one of the quarterbacks but without a sure franchise passer available, don't be surprised if defensive minded-head coach Lovie Smith pushes for Williams, who could team with Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson to give Tampa a fearsome front. The 6-5, 290-pound Williams has been my personal top-rated player since October. He is a physical mismatch too quick for interior linemen and too powerful for offensive tackles.

2. Tennessee Titans - Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State: The Titans dropped their final 10 games of the 2014 season and need a long-term solution at the QB position. It is hard to imagine GM Ruston Webster looking past Winston's off-field issues but from purely a football standpoint, however, Winston projects quite well in coach Ken Whisenhunt's offense.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska: The Jaguars' record isn't pretty but head coach Gus Bradley's infectious enthusiasm, a hard-hitting defense and talented rookie quarterback Blake Bortles have this franchise on the upswing. Gregory is well-suited to starring in Bradley's hybrid 4-3 alignment at the LEO defensive end, as he's long (6-5, 242 pounds), explosive and passionate against both the run and pass.

4. Oakland Raiders - Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama: Derek Carr showed flashes as a rookie of being the young signal-caller capable of turning this franchise around. Adding another weapon for him would seem like a logical choice, with Cooper ranking as one of the easier projections to the NFL due to his sharp route-running, soft hands and terrific acceleration.

5. Washington Redskins - Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa: Jay Gruden's success as the play-caller in Cincinnati came with one of the league's biggest offensive lines. He inherited one of the smallest in Washington and there is no question that upgrading the talent there will be an offseason priority. Not everyone sees Scherff (or any offensive lineman this year) as a top 10 talent, but he plays with the grit and physicality Washington is lacking and would be an immediate upgrade at right tackle.

6. New York Jets - Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon: Mariota's upside is undeniable but some worry that he may be a year away from running a traditional NFL offense. Whoever ultimately takes over as head coach will inherit Geno Smith but may consider adding to the position should Mariota still be on the board. Mariota faces legitimate questions about how he'll fare against tighter windows in the NFL, but he shows good awareness in the pocket, a live arm and, of course, great mobility.

7. Chicago Bears - Alvin "Bud" Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky: For all of the concerns about Chicago's inconsistent offense, the defense remains alarmingly toothless. Given the quarterbacks in the NFC North, that's a recipe for disaster. Like Julius Peppers before him, Jared Allen proved a shadow of his former self after signing with the Bears for big money. Dupree, who led all SEC defensive linemen with 74 tackles in 2014 and is the conference's reigning career sack leader with 24.5 QB takedowns, is long, instinctive and closes in a flash.

8. Atlanta Falcons - Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri: The Falcons have the firepower on offense to compete, but lack difference-makers on the defensive front. Adding a dynamic edge rusher like Ray to complement the greater size Atlanta added to its defense in the offseason could pay immediate dividends. Playing behind 2014 second-round pick Kony Ealy and Co-SEC Defensive Player of the Year Michael Sam, Ealy did not emerge as a starter for the Tigers until the 2014 season, but he may possess the most explosive first step in the country. He led the SEC with 14.5 sacks this season.

9. New York Giants - Landon Collins, S, Alabama: There is plenty of blame to go around in Gotham as the Giants struggled in 2014 despite an overhaul of the roster last offseason. GM Jerry Reese has won before gambling on the upside of talented pass rushers and given the exciting talent at the position this year he could roll the dice again, especially if free agent Jason Pierre-Paul leaves. Adding an intimidating presence for the secondary, however, should also be a priority.

10. St. Louis Rams - La'el Collins, OL, LSU: The Rams boast one of the league's fastest defenses, but one-dimensional teams won't be successful in the highly competitive NFC West. With a steep drop-off at quarterback following Mariota and Winston, the Rams might be best served again rolling the dice with Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill in 2015. Massive LT Greg Robinson showed flashes of why the Rams invested the No. 2 overall selection in him in 2014 and the Rams will have veteran Jake Long returning from injury in 2015. The interior, however, was a mess for St. Louis. Collins starred at left tackle for LSU but projects best to guard. His brute strength and tenacity make him one of the draft's elite run blockers.

 
Cool. The NFL is going to have a veteran combine for NFL free agent veterans. Smart move NFL.

----------------

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · 16m 16 minutes ago

Fascinating. The @NFL will host on March 22 in AZ the first ever NFL Veteran Combine, according to a memo sent today. It’s for veterans FAs.

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · 7m 7 minutes ago

From Matt Birk’s memo on the veteran combine, veteran FAs will participate in position-specific drills, timing and testing for 32 teams.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Cool. The NFL is going to have a veteran combine for NFL free agent veterans. Smart move NFL.

----------------

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · 16m 16 minutes ago

Fascinating. The @NFL will host on March 22 in AZ the first ever NFL Veteran Combine, according to a memo sent today. Its for veterans FAs.

Ian Rapoport @RapSheet · 7m 7 minutes ago

From Matt Birks memo on the veteran combine, veteran FAs will participate in position-specific drills, timing and testing for 32 teams.
Click to expand...
Another money making opportunity for the owners, I'm sure.
 
Daniel Jeremiah's first mock draft and his first top-fifty list are out.

DJ's first mock, only posting top-ten go to the link for the full first round.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts/daniel-jeremiah/215603

1. Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston

2. Tennessee OLB Randy Gregory

3. Jacksonville OLB Dante Fowler, Jr.

4. Oakland WR Kevin White

5. Washington DE Leonard Williams

6. NY Jets QB Marcus Mariota

7. Chicago DE Shane Ray

8. Atlanta WR Amari Cooper

9. NY Giants NT Danny Shelton

10. St. Louis CB Trae Waynes
Click to expand...
And here is the link to his top-fifty list.

http://www.nfl.com/top50

Published: Jan. 19, 2015 at 12:10 p.m.

  • Updated: Jan. 19, 2015 at 12:15 p.m.
Top 50 NFL draft prospect rankings USC's Williams opens as top-rated prospect
Daniel Jeremiah
NFL Media analyst
Click to expand...

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Anarchy99
Impact of NIL Money on Incoming Players
Replies
20
Views
938
IHEARTFF
I
RC94
FBG Mock Draft
15 16 17
Replies
805
Views
20K
travdogg
T
Gatorman
Why does the NFL have QBs that cannot play QB?
2
Replies
73
Views
2K
renesauz
renesauz

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top